Happy Tuesday y’all! We’re riding a nice hot streak right now with a 30-14 run currently going in MLB. You can find all my plays available here at TheOddsbreakers.com. Also Feel free to reach out to me on Twitter @TheGreatKnoche if you have any questions regarding anything baseball and I’ll always let you know what I’m thinking. Let’s take a look at tonight’s featured game.
My Analysis turns to the Oakland-Alameda County Coliseum where the Oakland/Las Vegas Athletics will host the Arizona Diamondbacks tonight at 9:40 ET. The current lines are sitting at Arizona -153/ Oakland +133 with the Over/Under at 9.5 juiced to the under at -120. Game time temperature will be 69 degrees under clear skies with a slight breeze blowing out to right field.
Young Left-Hander Kyle Muller will take the bump for the A’s. He has been battered around so far to start his time in Oakland to the tune of a 7.34 ERA. Out of seven games started so far this season he has allowed less than 4 Earned Runs only twice against Cleveland and Cincinnati. Ohio teams haven’t exactly been piling on the runs this year. Muller has been hurt by a .364 BABIP against, but part of the reason that number is so high is that his hard contact rate is over 43% according to Statcast. The Diamondbacks have a couple of right handed sluggers in Christian Walker and Lourdes Gurriel Jr. that can hammer lefties. The D-Backs as a whole are sporting a .731 OPS against left-handers. Once they chase Muller they’ll get a look at the Athletics bullpen and their 6.79 ERA and 1.70 WHIP. Only three relievers have a sub 5.00 ERA for the A’s and two of them pitched last night so I think we’ll see the bottom of the bullpen barrel and likely see it early.
Fellow Left-Hander Tommy Henry will start for the Snakes. He has a 4.43 ERA, but a 6.26 xFIP. He’s also striking out only 3.63 batters per nine innings so far. Henry has been decent his last two trips out against the Giants and Nationals holding each of them to 2 Earned Runs over 6+ innings. He is due for regression as outlined above as hitters have a .278 BABIP against him and his HR/FB& is only 5.9% thus far. As bad as Oakland has been they are actually hitting lefties well to the tune of a .750 OPS. A lot of that has to do with Brent Rooker and his breakout so far. He has 5 Home Runs and is sporting a 1.169 OPS against southpaws. Esteury Ruiz, Shea Langeliers, and Ramon Laureano also hit lefties well for Oakland. The Arizona bullpen has been better than advertised, but they are burned out. Kyle Nelson is ready to go, but their top two options Andrew Chafin and Miguel Castro have both pitched in 3 of 4 and Castro in back to back. They will be turning elsewhere once this game gets deeper.
Okay, The A’s offense is putrid as they only average 3.74 runs per game however the Snakes are 7th in MLB at 5.10 Runs per game. Earned runs against the A’s are by far the worst at 7.05 (This is crazy). The Diamandbacks are 23rd at 4.50 Earned Runs per game. Oakland is a pitcher’s park, but tonight those pitchers are just plain bad. The balls were juiced across the league last night almost everywhere except Oakland and I think it balances out tonight.
Gimme the Over 9.5 Runs for 1 Unit
