PGA Championship – Preview & Picks

By
Patrick Gates
-
686

The season’s second Major is here, the PGA Championship. This will be the 105th edition of this event and the fourth time that it’s been held at Oak Hill Country Club. The last time Oak Hill hosted a Major tournament was the 2013 PGA Championship. However, the course has undergone a major renovation since then which I’ll get to later on in this article. Let’s get into this week’s storylines…

Jordan Spieth is looking to finally complete the career Grand Slam. This will be his seventh attempt to win the PGA Championship. His best finish at this event was back in 2015 when he finished 2nd at Whistling Straits. Spieth did compete in the PGA Championship back in 2013 when it was held at Oak Hill but he missed the cut.

Despite hailing from Northern Ireland, Rory McIlroy has a connection to this host venue. His wife is from Rochester, New York and he is an honorary member of Oak Hill. He hasn’t won a Major Championship since 2014 when he captured both the PGA and Open Championship. In addition to that 2014 victory, he won the PGA Championship once before in 2012.

World No. 1, Jon Rahm won the first Major Championship of the season, the Masters. He now has two Major Championships (2021 U.S. Open). If he’s able to win the PGA Championship, he’ll only have one more event to win to complete the career Grand Slam (The Open Championship).

There are also a few top players in the world that are looking for their first Major championship. Patrick Cantlay, current World No. 4, had his best finish in a major at the 2019 PGA Championship with a T3 finish. Xander Schauffele (World No. 5) has had several runner-up finishes in Major championships but has failed to break through yet. Rounding out the top-10 in the OWGR is Max Homa who is also looking for his first Major Championship.

Lastly, the LIV Tour players have been allowed to play in this year’s event. Headlining the list of eighteen players from the LIV Tour includes Cameron Smith, defending Open Championship winner, Dustin Johnson, 2020 Masters Champion, and Phil Mickelson, three-time Masters champion. At the first Major tournament of the year, the Masters, Brooks Koepka and Phil Mickelson finished T2. Brooks has some history at this event winning the 2018 and 2019 PGA Championships.

 

Tournament Information:

  • Dates: May 18th, 2023 – May 21st, 2023
  • Location: Rochester, New York, United States
  • Course: Oak Hill Country Club (East Course)
  • Course Type: Classical/ Technical
  • Par: 70 (4x 3’s / 12x 4’s / 2x 5’s)
  • Length: 7,394 yards
  • Format: 72-hole stroke play
  • Greens: Bentgrass
  • Fairways: Bentgrass/ Poa Annua
  • Rough: Tall fescue/ Kentucky bluegrass/ ryegrass mix
  • Bunkers: 78
  • Water Hazard(s): 1 (In-Play on 6 Holes)
  • Average Green Size: 4,500 sq. ft.
  • Stimpmeter: 12-13 ft.
  • Purse/ Winner: $15,000,000/ $2,700,000
  • FedEx Cup Points: 600
  • Field/ Cut: 156 Pros | Top 65 and Ties – 36 Holes

Course Architect:

  • Course Architect:
    • Donald Ross (1926)
  • Recent Renovations:
    • Robert Trent Jones, Sr. (1960s)
    • Tom Fazio (1988, 2002)
    • Andrew Green (2019)

 

Comparable Courses & Greens:

  • Comparable Courses:
    • Bethpage Black – 2019 PGA Championship – RESULTS
    • Winged Foot – 2020 U.S. Open – RESULTS
    • The Country Club – 2022 U.S. Open – RESULTS
    • Kiawah Island – 2021 PGA Championship – RESULTS
  • Designer Link (Donald Ross):
    • Detroit Golf Club – Rocket Mortgage Classic – Donald Ross (1916)
    • Sedgefield Country Club – Wyndham Championship – Donald Ross (1926)
    • East Lake Golf Club – TOUR Championship – Donald Ross (1913 – Renovation)
  • Comparable Location (Rochester, New York):
    • Winged Foot – Mamaroneck, New York – 2020 U.S. Open
    • Bethpage Black – Long Island, New York – 2019 PGA Championship
    • Muirfield Village Golf Club – Dublin, Ohio – the Memorial Tournament
    • Oakdale Golf & Country Club – Toronto, Ontario, Canada – RBC Canadian Open
  • Comparable Yardage (7,394 Yards):
    • Detroit Golf Club – 7,370 Yards – Rocket Mortgage Classic
    • Tiburón Golf Club – 7,382 Yards – QBE Shootout
    • Memorial Park Golf Course – 7,412 Yards – Cadence Bank Houston Open
    • Albany – 7,414 Yards – Hero World Challenge
  • Comparable Greens (Bentgrass):
    • TPC Twin Cities – Bentgrass .110” – 3M Open
    • TPC Craig Ranch – Bentgrass .100” – AT&T Byron Nelson
    • Muirfield Village Golf Club – Bentgrass .090” – the Memorial Tournament
    • Augusta National Golf Club – Bentgrass .125” – Masters Tournament
    • Accordia Golf Narashino Country Club – Bentgrass – ZOZO CHAMPIONSHIP
  • Comparable Average Green Size (4,500 sq. ft.):
    • Albany – 4,500 sq. ft. – Hero World Challenge
    • TPC Southwind – 4,300 sq. ft. – FedEx St. Jude Championship

 

TV Information:

  • Round 1: Thursday, May 18th, 2023
    • ESPN+ – 7:00 AM – 1:00 PM ET
    • ESPN – 1:00 PM – 7:00 PM ET
  • Round 2: Friday, May 19th, 2023
    • ESPN+ – 7:00 AM – 1:00 PM ET
    • ESPN – 1:00 PM – 7:00 PM ET
  • Round 3: Saturday, May 20th, 2023
    • ESPN+ – 8:00 AM – 10:00 AM ET
    • ESPN – 10:00 AM – 1:00 PM ET
    • CBS – 1:00 PM – 7:00 PM ET
  • Round 4: Sunday, May 21st, 2023
    • ESPN+ – 8:00 AM – 10:00 AM ET
    • ESPN – 10:00 AM – 1:00 PM ET
    • CBS – 1:00 PM – 7:00 PM ET

 

Weather:

  • Thursday: Sunny 62 F, 8 mp/h N, 39% Humidity, 1% Chance of Rain
  • Friday: Partly Cloudy 78 F, 12 mp/h SSW, 24% Humidity, 24% Chance of Rain
  • Saturday: Showers 71 F, 12 mp/h SSW, 53% Humidity, 42% Chance of Rain
  • Sunday: Partly Cloudy 68 F, 14 mp/h W, 62% Humidity, 24% Chance of Rain

 

Course/ Tournament History:

Oak Hill Country Club was founded in 1901 with just nine holes laid out. The 85-acre property was nestled next to the Genesee River with the clubhouse being a converted farmhouse. Nine years later, the Oak Hill CC added an additional nine holes and built a new clubhouse as well. In 1921, the University of Rochester proposed a land swap that the Club hesitantly accepted relocating Oak Hill to a 355-acre plot of farmland in the town of Pittsford. With the newly acquired land and the University adding $360,000 to the deal, the Club now had the acreage and capital to expand. They brought in world-famous golf architect, Donald Ross to design two 18-hole golf courses, the East and the West Course.
The East Course has hosted all of the Major tournaments that have been held at Oak Hill Country Club. It’s also the only course in the United States that has hosted all six rotating men’s golf championships. In 1956, the course hosted its first Major, the U.S. Open. Following that, Oak Hill would go on to host the 1968 U.S. Open, the 1980 PGA Championship, the 1989 U.S. Open, and the 2003 PGA Championship. Outside of those events, the course has played host to the U.S. Senior Open and the U.S. Amateur. The most recent Major held at Oak Hill was the 2013 PGA Championship when Jason Duffer beat Jim Furyk by two strokes.
Since hosting the 2013 PGA Championship, Oak Hill underwent a major renovation. In 2019, they replaced old bentgrass/Poa Annua greens with pure bentgrass, restoring the shapes and contours of greens. In addition to that, numerous trees were removed along with several bunkers. New tees were also added increasing the length of the East Course.
The PGA Championship is one of the four Major Championships conducted by the Professional Golfers’ Association of America. The first PGA Championship was held in 1916 at Siwanoy Country Club in Bronxville, New York. Until 1957, the format of the tournament was Match-Play. Starting in 1958, the format was changed to the standard 72-hole format of 18 holes per day for four days, Thursday to Sunday.
In 2017, the PGA Championship was moved to May making it the second Major of the season instead of the fourth.
The winner will receive the Wanamaker Trophy, named after businessman and golfer Rodman Wanamaker. He was one of the major factors in the formation of the Professional Golfers’ Association of America (PGA) and suggested the tournament first be held.
  • Most Tournament Wins (PGA Championship):
    • 5, Jack Nicklaus (1963, 1971, 1973, 1975, 1980) & Walter Hagen (1921, 1924, 1925, 1926, 1927)
  • 72-Hole Record (Oak Hill Country Club):
    • 270, Jason Dufner (2013)
  • 18-Hole Record (Oak Hill Country Club):
    • 63, Jason Dufner (2nd round, 2013 at Oak Hill)

 

Course Guide/ Scorecard:

Oak Hill Country Club is one of the tougher courses players will face on Tour this season. In 2013, only four holes had a scoring average under par which were the No. 4, No. 12, No. 13, & No. 14. Given the most recent renovation, all of those four holes, besides No. 14, have increased in distance. At the 2013 PGA Championship, we saw accuracy prevail over distance off the tee. However, I think it will be the opposite this year as they’ve widened the fairways and as I’ve mentioned before, added 231 yards to the course without changing the Par.

In terms of length, Oak Hill Country Club is one of the longest courses on Tour measuring 7,394 yards. It ranks 6th out of 46 courses in length. The fairways are on the narrower side, ranking 5th of 46, with the average fairway width being 27.0 yards. The average green size is roughly 4,500 square feet which is on the smaller side when compared to the other courses on the PGA Tour. There are 78 bunkers which ranks 22nd out of 46 courses.

The four Par 3’s, No. 3, No. 5, No. 11, & No. 15, range between 155 yards and 230 yards. At the 2013 PGA Championship, No. 6 was a Par 3 and with the most recent renovation, No. 5 and No. 6 have been swapped. At that event, none of the four Par 3’s played under Par.

No. 5 ‘Little Poison’, 180 yards, Par 3: A two-tiered green surrounded by four deep bunkers requires an accurate tee shot. A shot that misses long will make it very challenging to save par due to the thick rough. When planning an approach, pay attention to the hole location to ensure the best chances for a scoring opportunity.

No. 11 ‘Creekside’, 245 yards, Par 3: This long par-3 is surrounded by three greenside bunkers—one short-left and two long-right—with Allen’s Creek protecting the front right. The large green offers a variety of hole locations, calling for players to be precise, which can be a tall order from such a long distance.

Most of the twelve Par 4’s range between 450-500 yards. No. 14 ‘Bunker Hill’ is the shortest listed at 320 yards with the longest being No. 6 ‘Double Trouble’, playing 503 yards.

No. 1 ‘The Challenge’, 460 yards, Par 4: Ben Hogan once called this hole the toughest opening test in championship golf. The tee shot is from an elevated tee to a slight dogleg left. A great drive can take advantage of a fairway downslope at 290 yards. Allen’s Creek runs across the fairway hole at the 360-yard mark. The danger off the tee is out of bounds
to the right and three bunkers on the left. The green is well guarded by grass hummocks and a greenside bunker short right.

No. 18 ‘Goin’ Home’, 497 yards, Par 4: As beautiful as it is demanding, the final hole boasts a fairway only 20 yards wide at the 300-yard mark, with three deep bunkers on the right and trees on both sides. The green slopes severely from back to front and sits between three bunkers right and one left, making for a very challenging finish.

The two Par 5’s are No. 4 ‘The High & Mighty’ playing 615 yards & No. 13 ‘Hill of Fame’ playing 623 yards. In 2013, No. 4 was listed at 570 yards, and No. 13 was listed at 598 yards. Both of these holes have had some significant yardage added to them with the recent renovation. Back in 2013, both of these holes did have a scoring average under par. Given the additional yardage added, they are some of the longer Par 5’s players will face on Tour this season.

No. 4 ‘The High & Mighty’, 615 yards, Par 5: The only par-5 on the front requires a very precise tee shot to set up a chance of reaching the green in two. Bunkers and out-of-bounds guard the right side while trees run along the left. The green slopes from back to front with deep bunkers short-left and short-right.

No. 13 ‘Hill of Fame’, 623 yards, Par 5: Oak Hill’s most notable par-5 runs uphill toward the clubhouse. Allen’s Creek crosses the fairway at the 325-yard mark, which will force most players to lay up and face a long uphill approach. Two fairway bunkers guard the right side of the fairway 125 yards from a green that sits in a hollow, providing a beautiful amphitheater setting.

Hole Name Yards Par Hole Name Yards Par
1 The Challenge 460 4 10 Council Grove 430 4
2 Breather 405 4 11 Creekside 245 3
3 Vista 230 3 12 Leaning Oak 399 4
4 The High & Mighty 615 5 13 Hill of Fame 623 5
5 Little Poison 180 3 14 Bunker Hill 320 4
6 Double Trouble 503 4 15 The Plateau 155 3
7 Creek’s Elbow 461 4 16 Straight Away 458 4
8 Wayside 429 4 17 Twin Tees 502 4
9 Needles Eyes 482 4 18 Goin’ Home 497 4
Out 3,765 35 In 3,629 35
Total 7,394 70

 

Featured/ Signature Hole(s): 13, 18

For a hole-by-hole overview of the course, you can click the following link.

 

Key Statistics:

  • Strokes Gained: Approach
  • Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee
  • Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green
  • Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green
  • Driving Distance
  • Scrambling
  • Par 4 Scoring: 450 – 500 Yards (x5)
  • Par 5 Scoring: 600 – 625 Yards (x2)
  • Strokes Gained: Putting (Bentgrass)
  • Major History
  • Comparable Courses and Event History

 

The Field/ Odds:

There will be 156 players competing in this year’s PGA Championship. Ninety-nine of the world’s top 100-ranked players are in the field this week. This is also the second event of the year that LIV Tour players have been invited to. Here are the current favorites in this week’s event:

  • Scottie Scheffler (+700) has already won two elevated events this season including the WM Phoenix Open and THE PLAYERS Championship. After finishing T45 in his first start of the 2023 Season, Scheffler has yet to finish worse than T12! In his last three events, he’s been struggling on the green losing strokes putting in each of those tournaments. In terms of the PGA Championship, he missed the cut last year at Southern Hills but finished T8 at Kiawah Island and T4 at TPC Harding Park.
  • Jon Rahm (+800) has the most victories on the PGA Tour this season with 4. His most recent win was at the Masters Tournament. Since that victory, he finished T15 at the RBC Heritage and 2nd at the Mexico Open. Given the thick rough this week, his play around the green is a bit of concern as he’s lost strokes in that category in each of his last two starts. He has never won a PGA Championship with his best finish coming back in 2018 at Bellerive Country Club where he finished T4. Last year, he struggled at Southern Hills finishing T48.
  • Rory McIlroy (+1400) won two PGA Championships already in 2014 at Valhalla Golf Club and in 2012 at Kiawah Island. He started the season off strong winning the CJ Cup in South Carolina but has yet to win another event since then. However, he did finish T2 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational and 3rd at the WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play. At the Masters, Rory struggled missing the cut. He did play in the 2013 PGA Championship which was held at Oak Hill finishing T8.
  • Xander Schauffele (+1600) has been trending towards a win lately finishing inside the top 10 in each of his last five starts.  While Xander has yet to win a Major, his style of play should fit Oak Hill well. His ball striking has been phenomenal this year gaining strokes at every event besides one. Xander’s best finish at the PGA Championship was back in 2020 at TPC Harding Park (T10).
  • Patrick Cantlay (+1600) has only missed the cut once this season which was at the WM Phoenix Open. Following that event, Cantlay has only finished outside the top 20 once in his eight starts since then. In his last start at the Wells Fargo Championship, he has his worst ball-striking performance of the year losing -0.44 strokes on approach. His best finish in a PGA Championship was in 2019 at Bethpage Black (T3).

 

  • Previous Winners in the Field:
    • Justin Thomas (’22. ’17), Phil Mickelson (’21, ’05), Collin Morikawa (’20), Brooks Koepka (’19, ’18), Jimmy Walker (’16), Jason Day (’15), Rory McIlroy (’14, ’12), Keegan Bradley (’11), Pádraig Harrington (’08)
  • LIV Players in the field (18):
    • Abraham Ancer, Dean Burmester, Paul Casey, Bryson DeChambeau, Talor Gooch, Dustin Johnson, Sihwan Kim, Brooks Koepka, Anirban Lahiri, Phil Mickelson, Joaquin Niemann, Mito Pereira, Thomas Pieters, Patrick Reed, Cameron Smith, Brendan Steele, and Harold Varner III.
  • Notable Withdraws:
    • Jason Dufner, Martin Kaymer, Davis Love III, Vijay Singh, John Daly

 

To see the most up-to-date odds, you can click the following link.

To see the full field for this event, you can click the following link.

 

Horses for Courses:

[Results from the 2013 PGA Championship which was hosted at Oak Hill Country Club]

  • Adam Scott: T5
  • Jason Day: T8
  • Rory McIlroy: T8
  • Dustin Johnson: T8
  • Zach Johnson: T8
  • Hideki Matsuyama: T19
  • Rickie Fowler: T19
  • Keegan Bradley: T19

 

Donkeys for Courses:

“Horses for Courses” is a phrase that is widely used and describes the best course/tournament fits. These are the players that have had success at the particular course/event. “Donkeys for Courses” is something I came up with that highlights the players who have struggled at a specific course/tournament.

[Results from the 2013 PGA Championship which was hosted at Oak Hill Country Club]

  • Jordan Spieth: MC
  • Russell Henley: MC
  • Alexander Noren: MC
  • Brooks Koepka: 70
  • Phil Mickelson: 72

 

Previous Winners Scores & Prices:

  • 2022: Justin Thomas (-6) – Southern Hills Country Club
    • Price: 16-1
  • 2021: Phil Mickelson (-6) –  Kiawah Island Golf Resort (Ocean Course)
    • Price: 250-1
  • 2020: Collin Morikawa (-13) – TPC Harding Park
    • Price: 35-1
  • 2019: Brooks Koepka (-8) – Bethpage Black Course
    • Price: 11-1
  • 2018: Brooks Koepka (-16) – Bellerive Country Club
    • Price: 20-1
  • 2013: Jason Dufner (-10) – Oak Hill Country Club
    • Price: 40-1

 

Picks (Outrights):

  • Xander Schauffele (+1900) – PointsBet
    • Risk 0.43 to win 8.17 Units
  • Brooks Koepka (+2200) – BetMGM
    • Risk 0.37 to win 8.24 Units
  • Tony Finau (+2900) – FanDuel
    • Risk 0.28 to win 8.12 Units

Tony Finau won the Mexico Open a few weeks ago outdueling World No.1 Jon Rahm down the stretch. With that victory, he has now won twice on the PGA Tour this season. In his last start, he finished T23 gaining strokes in every category outside of putting. One key factor for Finau this week will be his play Around the Green, a category in which he ranks 1st in strokes gained on the Tour. The rough this week is extremely penal and his ability to get up and down in those tricky areas should give him an advantage. His play has been trending in the right direction and given his newfound confidence, I think he has a shot to compete this week.

  • Rickie Fowler (+7500) – FanDuel
    • Risk 0.11 to win 8.25 Units

Rickie Fowler is one of the few players in the field to have played in the 2013 PGA Championship which was held at Oak Hill Country Club. He played well in that event finishing T19. This season, Rickie has returned to form playing some great golf. His ball striking has been great, gaining strokes on approach in every event he’s played in this season. In his last five starts, he’s finished inside the top 20 each time and has been trending in the right direction. His length off the tee should allow him to compete this week and when you add his iron play into the mix, I think he has a shot. While he hasn’t won on the PGA Tour since 2019, this could be his coming out party. At 75-1 on FanDuel, it’s a great price when other books have him as low as 50-1.

Total Risk on Outrights: 1.19 Units

 

Picks (Top 20):

  • Justin Thomas (+120) – BetRivers/ Caesars
    • Risk 1.00 to win 1.20 Units

Justin Thomas will look to defend his title this year at Oak Hill. Last year at Southern Hills, he had an improbable victory. While he hasn’t been great this season he does have nine top-25 finishes. After he missed the cut at the Masters, he’s rebounded well finishing T25 and T14 in his last two starts. He’s one of the more elite ball strikers on Tour and should be in the mix.

  • Dustin Johnson (+135) – BetRivers
    • Risk 1.00 to win 1.35 Units

Dustin Johnson struggled at Augusta earlier this year finishing T48th, losing strokes putting and around the green. However, he did win his most recent start on the LIV Tour which has hopefully helped his confidence coming into Oak Hill. He did play at the 2013 PGA Championship held here and finished T8. His distance off the tee always gives him an advantage and given his recent play following the Masters, I think he has a shot to compete.

  • Cameron Young (+140) – PointsBet
    • Risk 1.00 to win 1.40 Units
  • Tyrrell Hatton (+160) – PointsBet
    • Risk 1.00 to win 1.60 Units

Tyrrell Hatton comes into the PGA Championship in great form, finishing T5 at the AT&T Byron Nelson and T3 at the Wells Fargo Championship. He ranks well in several key categories this week including SG: Tee-to-Green (6th), SG: Off-the-Tee (11th), and SG: Approach (11th). Hatton has had issues with his short game this year but has gained strokes Around-the-Green in each of his last three events. He’s also played well in the last few Major Championships and given the state of his current game, he should have some success this week.

Total Risk on Top 20s: 4.00 Units

 

Picks (Top 30):

  • Tommy Fleetwood (+145) – FanDuel
    • Risk 1.00 to win 1.45 Units

Tommy Fleetwood is coming off two strong performances finishing T5 at the Wells Fargo Championship and T15 at the RBC Heritage. His play has been trending in the right direction, specifically his iron play. He still has the distance off the tee to compete at a course like Oak Hill. Given his recent play and performance at Augusta earlier this year, I think Fleetwood can be near the top of the leaderboard come Sunday.

Total Risk on Top 30s: 1.00 Units

 

Total Risk on the PGA Championship: 6.19 Units 

 

Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting. Any feedback whether positive or negative is always encouraged.

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