FedEx St. Jude Championship – Preview & Picks

Congrats to all Lucas Glover backers last week at the Wyndham Championship! He had been trending towards a win for the past few weeks so it was great for him to finally break through and capture his first win on the PGA Tour since the 2021 John Deere Classic.

Let’s get into this week’s storylines…

This week, the three-event 2023 FedExCup Playoffs start at TPC Southwind with the second edition of the FedEx St. Jude Championship. This event replaced The Northern Trust but, TPC Southwind is no stranger to hosting PGA Tour events. A regular season event has been held here every year since 1989.

Last year the top 125 players were eligible for this event but with the new playoff format, only the top 70 players in FedEx Cup Standings are in the field this year.

Rory McIlroy, current No. 3 in the FedEx Cup standings, will begin his quest to defend his FedEx Cup title in hopes of becoming the first player to win it in consecutive years. With his victory last season, he became the PGA TOUR’s first three-time FedExCup winner.

Jon Rahm and Scottie Scheffler, currently No. 1 and No. 2 in the FedEx Cup Standings will look to win their first-ever FedEx Cup. Rahm currently has the most wins on Tour this season and holds a 174-point lead on Scheffler going into this week’s event. Scheffler came close to winning last season at East Lake but was out-dueled by Rory down the stretch.

Justin Thomas (No. 71) and Adam Scott (No. 72) were the first two players out of the FedEx Cup Playoffs. This is the first year for both of these players that they have missed out on the playoffs. Matt Kuchar is now the lone man to make the FedExCup Playoffs each year since the series’ 2007 inception.

Defending champion, Will Zalatoris will not be in the field this week. He captured his lone PGA Tour victory at TPC Southwind last year but had to withdraw the following week due to a back injury. Unfortunately, that injury lingered into this season which has forced him to miss the majority of the past year.

 

Tournament Information:

• Dates: August 10th, 2023 – August 13th, 2023
• Location: Memphis, Tennessee, United States
• Course: TPC Southwind
• Course Type: Parkland
• Par: 70 (4x 3’s / 12x 4’s / 2x 5’s)
• Length: 7,243 Yards
• Format: 72-hole stroke play
• Greens: Champion bermudagrass .090”
• Fairways: Zeon zoysiagrass .425”
• Rough: 419 bermudagrass 2.5”
• Bunkers: 75
• Water Hazard(s): 11 (In-Play on 11 Holes)
• Average Green Size: 4,300 sq. ft.
• Stimpmeter: 12.5+ ft.
• Purse/ Winner: $20,000,000 / $3,600,000
• FedEx Cup Points: 2,000
• Field/ Cut: 70 Pros | No Cut
• Playoff Holes: 18, 18, 11, 12, 18
• Course Scoring Average:
  • 2022: 69.16 (-0.84), Rank 30 of 50
  • 2021: 69.05 (-0.95), Rank 32 of 51
  • 2020: 69.56 (-0.44), Rank 14 of 41

 

Comparable Courses & Greens:

TV Information:

• Round 1: Thursday, August 10th, 2023
  • Golf Channel – 2:00 PM – 6:00 PM ET
• Round 2: Friday, August 11th, 2023
  • Golf Channel – 2:00 PM – 6:00 PM ET
• Round 3: Saturday, August 12th, 2023
  • Golf Channel – 1:00 PM – 3:00 PM ET
  • CBS – 3:00 PM – 6:00 PM ET
• Round 4: Sunday, August 13th, 2023
  • Golf Channel – 12:00 PM – 2:00 PM ET
  • CBS – 2:00 PM – 6:00 PM ET

 

Weather:

• Thursday: AM Thunderstorms 86 F, 9 mp/h WSW, 78% Humidity,46% Chance of Rain
• Friday: AM Thunderstorms 90 F, 8 mp/h SSW, 78% Humidity, 34% Chance of Rain
• Saturday: AM Thunderstorms 92 F, 9 mp/h SSW, 77% Humidity, 58% Chance of Rain
• Sunday: Partly Cloudy 93 F, 6 mp/h SSW, 72% Humidity, 16% Chance of Rain

 

FedEx Cup Playoff Format:

The FedEx Cup is a season-long points competition that culminated with the FedExCup Playoffs. The FedExCup Playoffs is a series of three events that determine the FedExCup Champion.

The top 70 players in the season-long standings qualify for the first of three events (The FedEx St. Jude Championship). This is the only event of the three to have a cut after 36 holes. After this week’s event, only the top 50 players will qualify for the next event, the BMW Championship. Following that tournament, the final event of the playoffs takes place, the TOUR Championship.

In the TOUR Championship, only the top 30 players qualify and the points leader in the FedExCup will start the event at 10-under par. The No. 2 player will start at 8 under. The No. 3 player starts at 7 under; the No. 4 player starts at 6 under; the No. 5 player starts at 5 under. Players 6-10 start at 4 under; players 11-15 start at 3 under; players 16-20 start at 2 under; players 21-25 start at 1 under; and players 26-30 start at even par.

You can click the following link to see the current FedExCup Standings.

 

Course/ Tournament History:

TPC Southwind has hosted a PGA Tour event every year since 1989. This course has some rare bragging rights as it’s one of the only courses to host three different PGA Tour events. From 1989-2018, the FedEx St. Jude Classic was held here. In 2019, the WGC-FedEx St. Jude Invitational replaced that event and was relocated from Firestone Country Club in Akron, Ohio. Up until 2021, TPC Southwind has hosted that event.

TPC Southwind’s first major renovation took place in 2004 with the main goal of “modernizing” the course. The course was lengthened out adding 11 new tees, and 15 new bunkers while enlarging three ponds and adding some additional foliage. The greens were also changed from bentgrass to Champion bermudagrass.

In 2020, the course underwent a minor renovation with every bunker being re-contoured in some sort. Some were also added making the course a little more difficult.

The FedEx St. Jude Championship replaced the Northern Trust as the first stop in the FedEx Cup Playoffs in 2022. This will be the second time that a FedExCup Playoff event has been held at this course.

• 72-Hole Record (TPC Southwind):
  • 264, Brooks Koepka (2019), Abraham Ancer (2021), Hideki Matsuyama (2021), Sam Burns (2021)
• 18-Hole Record (TPC Southwind):
  • 61, Tom Lewis (third round, 2020), Bob Estes (first round, 2001), Jay Delsing (fourth round, 1993)

• 72-Hole Record (Event):
  • 254, Dustin Johnson (2020 – TPC Boston)
• 18-Hole Record (Event):
  • 60, Dustin Johnson (Second round, 2020 – TPC Boston)

 

Course Guide/ Scorecard:

TPC Southwind is on the longer side measuring 7,243 yards. It ranks 17th out of 46 courses in terms of length. The fairways are on the narrower side, ranking 2nd of 46, with the average fairway width being 25.0 yards. The average green size is roughly 4,300 square feet which is on the smaller side when compared to the other courses on the PGA Tour. There are 75 bunkers which rank as the 22nd fewest out of the 46 courses.

The four Par 3’s range between 162 yards and 205 yards. The three Par 3’s on the had scoring averages under par with the exclusion being No. 14.

No. 11 is a smaller version of the famous 17th at TPC Sawgrass but with its own uniqueness. Despite its lack of distance, it provides players with a challenge as they’re hitting on to an island green. The green is fairly open with just one pot bunker guarding the front edge.

No. 14 is the signature Par 3, which requires players to carry their tee shot over water onto a severely undulated green.

The twelve par 4’s on the course provide a challenge with only a few scoring opportunities depending on the tee shot. Holes No. 5, 7, 9, 10, 12, 17, and 18 all have a scoring average over par last year.

No. 9 is a long dogleg to the right with a downhill second shot over a lake in front of the green. Players will aim at the right side of the fairway in hopes of making their approach shot that much easier. It’s one of the holes that reward the bombers off the tee.

No. 18 is a fantastic finishing hole that again, rewards distance off the tee. It’s a dogleg left where water comes into play every shot. The body of water runs parallel to the fairway throughout the entire hole, making a solid tee shot critical.

The two Par 5’s, No. 3 and No. 16 are both gettable in two. Players will need to take advantage of this scoring opportunity if they want to have success here.

No. 3 features a downhill tee shot that will give players an extra roll. Off the tee, players will try to position it along the left side of the fairway providing themselves a better angle into the green. Their approach shot is difficult as a lake guards the right side with a pair of bunkers on the left.

No. 16 is a dogleg left and the shorter of the two Par 5’s. As long as players are in the fairway off the tee, they’ll have a fairly easy shot into the green. A large bunker complex does surround the green and will come into play more if the pin is in the back left.

Featured/ Signature Hole(s): 9, 11, 14, 18

You can click the following link for a hole-by-hole overview of the course.

 

Key Statistics:

• Strokes Gained: Approach
• Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green
• Strokes Gained: Putting (Bermuda)
• Driving Accuracy
• Scrambling
• Par 3 Scoring: 150 – 175 (x2)
• Par 4 Scoring: 450 – 500 (x6)
• Proximity: 150 – 175 Yards
• Proximity: 175 – 200 Yards
• Comparable Courses and Event History

 

The Field/ Odds:

There will be 70 players competing in this year’s FedEx St. Jude Championship.  Here are the current favorites in this week’s event:

Jon Rahm (+650) will make his first start since finishing T2 at The Open Championship. He has four wins on the PGA Tour this year which is the most of any player. Last year at this event, he finished T5 gaining strokes in every category. Outside of that, he’s only played at TPC Southwind two other times finishing T52 (2020 – WGC-FedEx St. Jude Invitational) and 7th (2019 – WGC-FedEx St. Jude Invitational).

Scottie Scheffler (+800) is coming off his second-worst finish of the season… T23 at The Open Championship. Before that, he had seven consecutive top-5 finishes. He’s also won twice this year at THE PLAYERS Championship (comp course) and the WM Phoenix Open. Last year, he missed the cut at the event, and in his two other trips to TPC Sawgrass, he finished 14th (2021 – WGC-FedEx St. Jude Invitational) and T15 (2020 – WGC-FedEx St. Jude Invitational).

Rory McIlroy (+800) has finished inside the top 10 in each of his last seven starts on the PGA Tour. During that span, he also picked up his second win of the season at the Genesis Scottish Open. In his most recent start, he finished T6 at The Open Championship. Last year at the FedEx St. Jude Championship, McIlroy missed the cut. His best finish at TPC Southwind was at the 2019 WGC-FedEx St. Jude Invitational (T4).

Patrick Cantlay (+1400) struggled overseas in his last two starts missing the cut at the Genesis Scottish Open and finishing T33 at The Open Championship. Before that, he had finished inside the top 20 in ten of his last twelve starts. Last year at the FedEx St. Jude Championship, Cantlay finished T57. His best finish at TPC Southwind was at the 2019 WGC-FedEx St. Jude Invitational (T12).

Xander Schauffele (+1600) has played at TPC Southwind five times before with his best finish coming at the 2020 WGC-FedEx St. Jude Invitational (T6). He’s finished inside the top 20 in ten of his last twelve starts.

 

• Previous Winners in the Field (TPC Southwind):
  • Harris English (’13 – FedEx St. Jude Classic)

• Previous Winners in the Field (Event):
  • Tony Finau (’21 – The Northern Trust), Jason Day (’15 – The Barclays)

• Injury Concerns:
  • Tom Kim (wrist/ankle)
  • Hayden Buckley (rib)
  • Seamus Power (hip)

• Notable Withdraws:
  • None

You can click the following link to see the most up-to-date odds.

You can click the following link to see the full field for this event and how they qualified.

 

Horses for Courses (TPC Southwind):

	FedEx St. Jude Championship	WGC FedEx St. Jude Invitational	WGC FedEx St. Jude Invitational	WGC FedEx St. Jude Invitational
	TPC Southwind	TPC Southwind	TPC Southwind	TPC Southwind
	2022	2021	2020	2019
Collin Morikawa	T5	T26	T20
Hideki Matsuyama		T2	T20	T43
Matthew Fitzpatrick	T5	T57	T6	T4
Sam Burns	T20	T2
Jon Rahm	T5		T52	7
Andrew Putnam	T5			T24
Brian Harman	T3	T36
Sepp Straka	2

 

Donkeys for Courses (TPC Southwind):

“Horses for Courses” is a phrase that is widely used and describes the best course/tournament fits. These are the players that have had success at the particular course/event. “Donkeys for Courses” is something I came up with that highlights the players who have struggled at a specific course/tournament.

	FedEx St. Jude Championship	WGC FedEx St. Jude Invitational	WGC FedEx St. Jude Invitational	WGC FedEx St. Jude Invitational
	TPC Southwind	TPC Southwind	TPC Southwind	TPC Southwind
	2022	2021	2020	2019
Keegan Bradley	MC		T52	T61
Alex Smalley	MC
Kurt Kitayama	MC
Tom Hoge	MC
Patrick Rodgers	MC
Russell Henley	MC
Chris Kirk	MC
Mark Hubbard	MC
Brandon Wu	MC
Adam Hadwin	69		T72
Matthew NeSmith	MC

 

Previous Winners/ Scores (TPC Southwind):

• 2022: Will Zalatoris (-15) – (FedEx St. Jude Championship)
  • Price: 28-1

• 2021: Abraham Ancer (-21) – (WGC-FedEx St. Jude Invitational)
  • Price: 50-1

• 2020: Justin Thomas (-13) – (WGC-FedEx St. Jude Invitational)
  • Price: 12-1

• 2019: Brooks Koepka (-16) – (WGC-FedEx St. Jude Invitational)
  • Price: 12-1

• 2018: Dustin Johnson (-19) – (FedEx St. Jude Classic)
  • Price: 6-1

 

Previous Winners Scores & Prices (Event):

• 2022: Will Zalatoris (-15) – TPC Southwind (FedEx St. Jude Championship)
  • Price: 28-1
• 2021: Tony Finau (-20) – Liberty National Golf Club (The Northern Trust)
  • Price: 60-1
• 2020: Dustin Johnson (-30) – TPC Boston (The Northern Trust)
  • Price: 20-1
• 2019: Patrick Reed (-16) – Liberty National Golf Club (The Northern Trust)
  • Price: 55-1
• 2018: Bryson Dechambeau (-18) – Ridgewood Country Club (The Northern Trust)
  • Price: 100-1

 

Picks (Outrights):

• Viktor Hovland (+2000) – FanDuel
  • Risk 0.40 to win 8.00 Units

• Collin Morikawa (+2500) – FanDuel
  • Risk 0.32 to win 8.00 Units

• Tyrrell Hatton (+2500) – FanDuel
  • Risk 0.32 to win 8.00 Units

• Tony Finau (+4000) – FanDuel
  • Risk 0.20 to win 8.00 Units

Total Risk on Outrights: 1.24 Units 

 

Picks (Top 20):

[You can find better odds on other books but I choose BetMGM since all ties are paid in full. It’s a small field this week so I’m expecting it to be pretty tight when it comes to the leaderboard.]

• Tom Kim (-105) – BetMGM
  • Risk 1.05 to win 1.00 Units

I’m going to take a shot with Tom Kim this week despite him nursing an ankle injury that he suffered at The Open Championship. He held out of the Wyndham Championship where he got his first win last year but said in an interview earlier this week that it’s “all systems go” so where trusting him.

After he suffered that injury, he was still able to grind out a T2 finish at the Open Championship. Before that, he finished T6 at the Genesis Scottish Open. He struggled earlier this year but has found his form as of late. Last year at this event, he finished T13.

• Brian Harman (+125) – BetMGM
  • Risk 1.00 to win 1.25Units

Brian Harman is coming off his first-ever Major Championship win at Royal Liverpool. Before that, he finished T12 at the Genesis Scottish Open, T9 at the Rocket Mortgage Classic, and T2 at the Travelers Championship. His approach play has been fantastic as of late gaining strokes in four of his last five starts. His putting has also been phenomenal gaining strokes in each of his last seven events. Last year at this event, Harman finished T3 gaining strokes in every category.

His ball-striking has been trending in the right direction which is crucial for this event based on the last few winner’s paths to success. While he’s not the longest of hitters off the tee, his accuracy will provide him an advantage given the penal rough this week.

• J.T. Poston (+130) – BetMGM
  • Risk 1.00 to win 1.30 Units

J.T. Poston is another guy that is peaking at the right time heading into the playoffs. He’s finished inside the top 10 in four of his last five starts. Poston has gained strokes on approach in four of those five starts. His putting has also been much better as of late which has made a huge impact on his finishing position. J.T. does struggle a bit off the tee but his accuracy has been more consistent as of late when comparing it to his earlier starts this season. Last year at this event he finished T20. Based on the way his game’s been trending and his course experience, Poston is set up to play well again at this week’s event.

• Byeong-Huh An (+138) – BetMGM
  • Risk 1.00 to win 1.38 Units

Byeong-Huh An has been playing some of his best golf as of late with a T2 finish at the Wyndham Championship, a T23 finish at The Open Championship, and a T3 finish at the Genesis Scottish Open. At the Wyndham, his approach game was the best it’s been all season long. He struggled with his putting for a while but has gained strokes in that category in each of his last four starts. The last time he played at TPC Southwind was in 2020 at the WGC-FedEx St. Jude Invitational where he finished T12. His game fits this style of course and given his recent form, he should have another solid week.

Total Risk on Top 20: 4.05 Units

 

Bonus Bet:

• Rickie Fowler 1st Round Top 10 (+275) – BetMGM

 

Total Risk on the FedEx St. Jude Championship: 5.29 Units 

 

Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting. Any feedback whether positive or negative, is always encouraged.