We have reached the first Saturday in May and the Run For The Roses in The Kentucky Derby. It doesn’t get much better than this weekend for Horse Racing with the exception of maybe The Breeders Cup. That being said the biggest money pools of the year occur here. The stuff of race betting dreams can occur where a $2 ticket can turn into over 100k.
I am including picks for all the stakes races on the card, race numbers 4-12. The weather could get a little sloppy Saturday afternoon as there is a 50% chance of storms. The track was sloppy on Friday and I would say best case scenario are good conditions for Saturday. So keep an eye on the track, and if you can I’d recommend waiting to see how the track shapes up with the 3 pre-races. The races get started early so tune in with your screwdrivers and eggs.
For each race I’ll give you my pick to win and at least my top 4 for each race. How you build those Exacts, Trifectas and Multi-Race bets is up to you. If you want any extra detail or thoughts on any races feel free to hit me up on Twitter @TheGreatKnoche.
Race 4 – Knicks Go Overnight Stakes – 1 Mile (Dirt) – Purse: $200,000 – Post Time 11:04 AM CDT
We kick off with the Stakes racing with a dirt mile for 4 year olds and up who haven’t won a graded sweepstakes since 2022. I am looking at a horse that has been the definition of consistent even while running on all different types of surfaces and that is the 1 Strong Quality. I think the two favorites here are deserving with my second choice being the 6 Best Actor. A couple horses from the outside have shown flashes of speed and could also contend, the 9 U.S. Army and the 11 Oscar Eclipse.
WIN: 1 Strong Quality
Top 4 if playing exotics: 1-6-11-9
Race 5 – Twin Spires Turf Sprint Stakes – Grade II – 5 1/2 Furlongs (Turf) – Purse: $600,000 – Post Time 11:36 AM CDT
A sprint on the turf is usually a wide open race with lots of horses having a chance. Many times a race like this will shake out based upon the trip a horse gets and I see this one shaping up that way as well. What I don’t see is any flat out speed leading this group out of the gate. Lots of horses in the field should have plenty in the tank for a wild finish. The two horses I really like in this race are the 4 Motorious and the 10 Big Invasion. 4 Motorious did not have a good trip his last time out in the Breeders Cup Turf Sprint, but had hit the board in 8 previous outings having not missed since 2021 otherwise. He would be a good choice to single up in some trifectas as I don’t know if he is going to win, but I trust he will hit the board. 10 Big Invasion also started off poor at the Breeders Cup Turf Sprint at the start, but rebounded well to finish second. He struggled in his 2024 debut as well so I look for the bounce back to come here. The rest of my card will hold Brazilian entry 6 Filo Di Arianna and 14 Cogburn.
Win: 10 Big Invasion
Top 4 if Playing Exotics: 10-4-6-14
Race 6 – Derby City Distaff – Grade I – 7 Furlongs (Dirt) – Purse: $1,000,000 – Post Time 12:14 PM CDT
4 Year old and up Fillies and Mares running here and the setup on this race is really intriguing as the top three favorites just went 1-2-3 a month ago in the Madison at Keeneland. 7 Alva Starr, 9 Red Carpet Ready and 10 Vahva. 7 Alva Starr and 10 Vahva are having a rubber match having split victories against each other the last two times they’ve squared off. The setup has the favorites on the outside and a lot of speed on the inside. 1 Three Witches, 2 Olivia Darling, and 5 Spirit Wind will all try and get to the front quickly. 7 Alva Starr could go with them, but sat off the pace until the final furlong in her last outing. If the pace goes quick it could setup better for one of the late closers to sneak in like the 3 Flying Connection or the 4 Chi Town Lady. I landed on the 3 Flying Connection as I think she has the best late pace and is rolling back in distance and could crank it up a with a 1/4 mile to go and show a few things to the favorites. This will be a fun one to watch and if you are playing a Pick 3 or Pick 4 plays along the way I certainly would not be singling out one or two horses in this one.
Win: 3 Flying Connection
Top 4 If playing Exotics: 3-7-4-9
Race 7 – Longines Churchill Distaff Turf Mile – Grade II – 1 Mile (Turf) – Purse: $750,000 – Post Time 12:56 PM CDT
Four+ Year old ladies running a turf mile here. Two dual entries in this field the 1 Ag Bullet will race here, but the 8 Heavenly Sunday ran Friday. I think that slows the pace down a little as the 9 Not so close should be the lone horse to be on the lead coming from the outside and will likely link up with 1 Ag Bullet at the first turn. The 3 Chili Flag (FR) has hit the board every time Irad Ortiz has been on her and I expect the same here. The lightly raced 6 Delahaye should benefit from not having the 8 in the field and should setup in good stalking position. I like the setup as well for the 7 Evvie Jets who was third last time out to a pair of horses that would be the co-favorites if they were in this field. Chad Brown’s third entry 11 Coppice has a win with Frankie Dettori on him in Dubai last fall and could have a chance to win from near the outside here.
Win: 3 Chili Flag
Top 4 if playing Exotics: 3-7-6-11
Race 8 – Pat Day Mile – Grade II – 1 Mile (Dirt) – Purse $600,000 – Post Time 1:46 PM CDT
Some of the three year olds that couldn’t quite get to the Derby are here in the Pat Day Mile. The 8 Top Conor is one of those horses who won his maiden and then Chad Brown put him in the Bluegrass where he set the pace, but couldn’t hold off the big boys. He’ll look to bounce back here more likely stalking the outside pace of the 11 Vlahos who won his only start wiring the field. 11 Vlahos will be stretching out to this distance for the first time, and I am not sure he will be able to sustain against this much stronger field. The 12 Nash got bested twice by Track Phantom on the Derby trail and Brad Cox got him down in class and then moved him into a one turn mile like this race where he excelled. I also see some potential for the 1 Carbone on the one turn mile if he can get clear. The 7 Who Dey has gotten better every time and if he does so again could also be in play here.
Win: 12 Nash
Top 4 if Playing Exotics: 12-7-8-11
Race 9 – American Turf Stakes – Grade II – 1 1/16 Miles (Turf) – Purse: $600,000 – Post Time 2:40 PM CDT
Wide open race for me on the turf as I failed to eliminate quite a few of these entries. I landed on the likely favorite, the 5 Legend of Time (GB) an import coming over from Dubai and getting Frankie Dettori. I think the pace won’t be lightning quick here and it should setup for a nice stalking trip if he can get into good position. The Transylvania Stakes trio of 6 Neat, 11 Cugino, and 3 Lagynos could all be a factor. The 12 Abrumar bested 11 Cugino twice this year already, and all three of 11 Cugino‘s place runs have come up short by less than a length. 14 Agate Road gets the tough outside gate here and will need a good trip with Irad Ortiz on board. Finally I think the 4 Formidable Man, 7 Stay Hot and 10 Set are all live horses. Gonna stick this race as an All selection in some Daily Doubles and Pick 3s and hope for the best.
Win: 5 Legend Of Time
Top 4 if Playing Exotics: 5-11-7-10
Race 10 – Churchill Downs Stakes – Grade I – 7 Furlongs (Dirt) – Purse: $1,000,000 – Post Time 3:31 PM CDT
The wildcard in this race is the 2024 debut of 6 Zozos. This horse has run well off a layoff before, and seems to be comfortable at the mile or less distance. I don’t think the pace will be super fast in this one so I believe horses that are just off the pace should have an advantage. The other favorite 11 Hoist the Gold draws the outside post and will likely be the pace setter here, but having to do so from the outside makes him unattractive for me to hold onto a lead. I am going to look to the horse who should be just behind him out of the gate the 7 Track Mate who has won his last two starts since Trainer D Wayne Lukas Added blinkers. He’s taking a big jump up in class here, but the speed ratings the last two times out show he can hang. Other horses I am interested in who I think will be near the front are 4 Mr. Wireless, 9 Three Technique and 10 Gun Pilot
Win: 7 Track Mate
Top 4 if playing Exotics: 7-4-9-6
Race 11 – Old Forester Bourbon Turf Classic Stakes – Grade I – 1 1/8 Miles (Turf) – Purse: $1,000,000 – Post Time 4:27 PM CDT
The 8 Never Surprised will be the only horse looking to take the lead out of the gate and that could work to his advantage in this his third outing of 2024 following over a year layoff. He’ll need to wire a very tough field however that includes another Charles Appleby import with Frankie Dettori on board the 12 Naval Power (GB). He lost last time out to Master Of The Seas who is likely the best turf horse in the country right now, but he was a clear second in the Makers Mark at Keeneland. This horse should sit in good stalking position on the outside and the question will be if he can work his way past the other solid horses who will likely be in front of him, the Chad Brown entries 5 Program Trading and 6 I’m very Busy. 5 Program Trading is 4 for 5 in his career when it comes to getting in the win circle and 6 I’m very Busy has finished first or second in his last four races. That being said I am also thinking the 1 Integration could swing back into form a few disappointing outings in 2024. He smoked the Chad Brown entries Virginia Derby and the Hill Prince at the end of 2023. Also looking to sneak onto to board and possibly making some noise is 3 Cellist.
Win: 11 Naval Power
Top 4 if Playing Exotics: 11-1-6-5
Race 12 – The Kentucky Derby – Grade I – 1 1/4 Miles (Dirt) – Purse: $5,000,000 – Post Time 5:57 CDT
Here we go, the Big One. If you want some more in depth analysis on this one check out Theoddsbreakers.com Podcast https://theoddsbreakers.com/podcast-35-24-with-patrick-gates-and-shawn-knoche-the-2024-kentucky-derby-part-2-sports-betting/
There will be plenty of pace here out of the gate as 1 Dornoch will look to get the lead off the rail and into good position. Also look for the 8 Just A Touch and also ran 21 Epic Ride to get to the front. Field Favorite 17 Fierceness will also look to be toward the lead and if he gets out ahead of 21 Epic Ride I would not be surprised if Johnny V takes him right to the front. The other favorite 2 Sierra Leone will be laying break and waiting for his moment to pick through the big field and there are no other horses in the field with the late kick he has. The only question for me will be his trip, if he can get to the outside at the homeward turn and have clear sailing in front of him I don’t see anyone stopping him from the win. The 3 Mystik Dan has a nice price and has shown one of the fastest speed ratings, but I’m not sure he’ll be able to cover the distance here. If its wet, I’ll probably have him in some more plays. The 6 Just Steel is my favorite of the longer prices in this race. The son of Justify has run a bunch in the prep season, but took a big step forward in his last outing which intrigues me. If 8 Just a Touch can get some good traffic behind him maybe he can keep the lead and out ahead of some of the closers. 14 Endlessly is a question mark making his first start on dirt, but he has been impressive on turf and synthetic. 17 Fierceness is likely going to be towards the front and knows he has been caught in some slower pace races including by the 15 Domestic Product in the Holy Bull. I think he’ll look to keep that pace up and hope 2 Sierra Leone and the other closers are too far back to catch him. 19 Resilience who won the Wood Memorial is one of the horses that just keeps getting better every time out. If he can do it again I can see him getting toward the front and possibly contending. For me the favorites are priced too short, but I’ve thought Sierra Leone was the best horse in this age group and hold a nice futures ticket on him already so I’m not fading him now except in some mix of my exotics. He is still my pick to win this race.
Win: 2 Sierra Leone
Top 7 If Playing Exotics: 2-6-8-17-12-19-3
