Northwestern vs Michigan -12 O/U 127
Have you ever noticed that sometimes a team that may be pretty bad just seems to have the other teams number? Well this comes into play for the Northwestern vs Michigan games. Dating back to the 2016/17 season, Northwestern even though inferior to Michigan has beaten the Wolverines 2 out of 4 times. Northwestern is 4-5 ATS vs Michigan since 2016. This year’s first match-up, Michigan barely escaped with a win at Welsh-Ryan arena. Let’s look at the +12. What worries me a little about the Northwestern side here is that they have not been a good road team thus far. Now we all know how good that the Wolverine’s are and they are playing great defense ranking 4th in the Nation on Kenpom but if you look at the Wildcats D, it isn’t too shabby ranking 30th. The thing that makes me think twice about the Northwestern side his that they rank 126th on offense and 253rd in field goal percentage which doesn’t bode well when playing on the road. The value that I find in this game is that all of the last 3 games with these 2 teams facing each other all went under the total. Michigan averages just 65.7 possessions per game while Northwestern isn’t too far behind at 66.8. Michigan is also a pretty bad free throw team. Looking at these defenses and the tempo, I like the under 127 here and have the game Michigan wining 67-57.
Under 127 and lean Northwestern +12
Michigan State vs Penn State +7.5 O/U 141
Ok here is an ugly one for you. Michigan State is one of the hottest teams out there and they have’t lost since they played Louisville on November 27th. Penn State on the other hand has been cold losing 4 out of their last 5 games although 4 of those 5 were on the road. I am going to keep this one short and sweet. The Spartens are a different road team than home team this year. Their true road games haven’t been that impressive to me losing at Louisville by 4, beating bottom of the barrel big 10 Rutgers by only 11 points and Florida by 4. They did handle business against Ohio State winning by 9 points but I think we are starting to see that the Buckeyes are not who we thought they were. Penn State on the other hand is still very motivated to make the tournament and will be looking to get it right at home after that embarrassing loss without their coach to the Badgers. Lastly, Joshua Langford will be missing this game for Michigan State due to injury. I know that the Buckeyes beat Purdue at home without him, but the Boilermakers only shot 31% that game and they live and die by the 3. Sharp money is on the Nittany Lions here with a 30% difference and I am going with that.
Penn State +7.5
