Happy turkey day everyone and welcome to your quick free play for this Thanksgiving in College Basketball.
If you’ve been following my football plays we’ve had a November to remember especially in the NFL where we’ve gone 29-14-1 for just shy of 25 units in winners this month. College Football has chipped in 4.8 Units as well.
Today we shift gears to college basketball and look to Chicago, Illinois where Northwestern will take on Oklahoma St. at the United Center at 9:30 CT.
Northwestern currently sits as a 2.5 point favorite with the total at 160.
Oklahoma State comes into the match-up at 6-0 with a couple of nice victories over Texas A&M and South Florida on their resume. They are scoring a boatload of points playing at the third fastest adjusted tempo in the nation having yet to be held under 85 points in a game.
Northwestern sits at 5-1 with the lone blemish coming at a neutral site against Virginia by five points. They’ve beaten a couple solid opponents by a bucket in Depaul and South Carolina.
Oklahoma State has yet to face a quality team with a clash of style this season. Both their top tier wins are against teams that also like to play fast with South Florida and Texas A&M in the top 35 in tempo. That plays to their strength of getting out in transition and picking up easy 2-point buckets. Chris Collins teams however pride themselves on working towards getting a good shot, taking care of the ball and playing good defense. So which style will take over tonight in Chicago?
Let’s start looking into some deeper numbers quick. On offense Oklahoma State is shooting it at 58.8% inside the arc and getting 52.6% of their total points from that range. Their three point percentage isn’t awful, but does dip down to 33.8%. Northwestern’s defense however is holding opponents to 45.1% inside the arc and 28.2% from distance. The reverse number that is key here that leads to the Oklahoma State percentage being inflated from inside the arc is turnover percentage. Oklahoma State opponents have been turning the ball over at 18.4% up to this point. Northwestern however only turns the ball over at 12.9% which is good for 12th in the country. The biggest reprieve fot Ok St. on offense could come in the form of offensive rebounds as Northwestern has struggled keeping teams off the glass allowing a 36.4% offensive rebound percentage.
When Northwestern has the ball as mentioned the key for them will be continuing to not turn it over and work quality ball control possessions. They are 29th in the country in assists/field goal percentage at 62.7%. In those quality possessions they are getting great looks from outside and knocking them down hitting at 41.9% from beyond the arc. The inside out game of Northwestern in the half court is something Oklahoma State just hasn’t dealt with this season.
Everyone is flying in on the hot tempo and fun times behind Pistol Pete, but this is a de facto home game for Northwestern. In an early season clash of styles I lean toward the guy I know can get it done and as a coach I trust Chris Collins to have his team more ready to go than Steve Lutz. Finally looking at Lutz and Oklahoma State last season against teams that ranked in the top 100 in KENPOM overall, but in the bottom half of adjusted tempo they posted a 2-11 overall record. Big time teams that slow it down aren’t good for Pistol Pete in my opinion and I am backing that factor tonight.
Northwestern -2.5, 2 Units
