The AFC North –
The AFC North once again proved to be the most predictable division in football — at least for people who don’t actually watch football. In our minds, the Ravens were supposed to win this thing comfortably, but who can ever stop Mike Tomlin and this perfectly mediocre Steelers team that insists on overachieving every single year. At this point, should we even call it overachieving? Maybe we’re the real underachievers for continuing to fade them like we haven’t learned a single lesson. If you want to dig deeper into that dynamic, the Tomlin effect is always worth revisiting.
This season brings a level of organizational chaos I genuinely don’t remember seeing in one division at the same time. Three of the four teams are rolling out new head coaches, which makes the AFC North feel less like a division and more like a group project where everyone suddenly decided to start over the night before it’s due. If you want to explore how these changes might reshape things, the coaching turnover is a storyline on its own.
One thing that didn’t change much is the quarterback situation. Even Aaron Rodgers decided to wrap up his annual offseason drama a bit earlier this year — which, for him, still counts as late by normal human standards. The rest of the division stays steady under center, which might be the only stable thread holding this whole thing together. For more on that, the QB landscape is surprisingly unchanged.
The good news for everyone involved is that the AFC North gets the luxury of playing the AFC South and NFC South — easily the two softest divisions in football right now. That’s a gift-wrapped schedule boost, at least for the moment. The only wrinkle is that the AFC has the extra road game this year, so we’ll see how much that matters once the grind sets in. If you want to look at how this schedule shapes the race, the strength of schedule angle is worth watching.
Best Bet: Ravens under 11.5 wins
AFC North – Full Offensive Rankings With Actual Values (2025 EPA Data)
(Rank = position out of 32 teams)
| Team | EPA/play (Rank) | Success Rate (Rank) | Dropback EPA (Rank) | Rush EPA (Rank) | Dropback SR (Rank) | Rush SR (Rank) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BAL | 0.037 (13) | 44.6% (12) | 0.036 (21) | 0.038 (3) | 47.0% (12) | 41.9% (12) |
| CIN | 0.012 (19) | 46.4% (10) | 0.012 (23) | 0.012 (5) | 47.0% (13) | 45.4% (4) |
| PIT | 0.028 (18) | 44.2% (16) | 0.046 (18) | -0.001 (7) | 44.3% (26) | 44.0% (7) |
| CLE | -0.176 (31) | 35.2% (32) | -0.212 (31) | -0.115 (27) | 35.9% (32) | 33.9% (31) |
AFC North – Full Defensive Rankings With Actual Values (2025 EPA Data)
| Team | EPA/play (Rank) | Success Rate (Rank) | Dropback EPA (Rank) | Rush EPA (Rank) | Dropback SR (Rank) | Rush SR (Rank) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CLE | -0.083 (4) | 40.9% (4) | -0.088 (3) | -0.078 (15) | 43.4% (8) | 37.4% (5) |
| BAL | 0.025 (18) | 44.3% (16) | 0.101 (21) | -0.115 (6) | 46.5% (17) | 40.2% (14) |
| PIT | 0.025 (19) | 43.8% (13) | 0.060 (16) | -0.035 (24) | 46.1% (14) | 39.8% (13) |
| CIN | 0.122 (29) | 47.6% (27) | 0.182 (28) | 0.034 (29) | 50.3% (29) | 43.5% (26) |
Odds to win the Division:
- Ravens -115
- Bengals +194
- Steelers +510
- Browns +2100
1. Baltimore Ravens
Vegas win total: 11.5 juiced to the under -140
2025 Wins: 8
Pythagorean Wins: 9.33
Schedule: Easy – At large vs Dallas*, @ Bills, vs Chargers
Schedule Last Year: Medium Hard
Key losses: Coach John Harbaugh, C Tyler Linderbaum, TE Isaiah Likely, Edge Dremont Jones, TE Charlie Kolar, S Alohi Gilman, RB Keaton Mitchell, FB Patrick Rickard, S Ar’Darius Washington, Edge Kyle Van Noy, WR DeAndre Hopkins, QB Cooper Rush, T Joseph Noteboom
Key additions: Coach Jessee Minter, OC Declan Doyle, Edge Trey Hendrickson, G John Simpson, S Jaylinn Hawkins, DT Calais Campbell, TE Durham Smythe, C Danny Pinter
Key Draft Picks: G Olaivavega Ioane, Edge Zion Young, WR Jacobi Lane, WR Elijah Surratt, TE Matthew Hibner and a bunch of dudes
Summary:
So who had to go — Lamar Jackson or John Harbaugh? In today’s NFL, and especially in Baltimore, that question wasn’t exactly difficult to answer. What is ironic is that the Ravens replaced Harbaugh with a coach who was essentially raised by the Harbaugh family tree anyway. He comes straight from Jim’s Chargers staff after previously serving as a position coach in Baltimore about six years ago. If nothing else, there’s at least some philosophical consistency there, even if the rest of the organization feels like it’s being rewired. For more on that coaching lineage, the Harbaugh connection is worth noting.
What won’t be consistent is the offensive system. It looks like Baltimore is leaning toward a Ben Johnson–style scheme with Bears offensive coordinator Declan Doyal stepping in. He’s still pretty green, and that could lead to some rough patches when working with quarterbacks like Lamar Jackson, who require a very specific balance of structure and freedom. If you want to dive deeper into that fit, the Doyal offense raises plenty of questions.
Personnel changes only add to the uncertainty. The Ravens lose tight end depth with Isaiah Likely moving on, and they’ve taken real hits along the offensive line — including losing their center. The receiving group looks thin unless rookies Jacobi Lane and Elijah Surratt hit the ground running, which is never a guarantee. The Ravens skill positions feel like a work in progress.
Defensively, I expect Coach Jesse Minter to take full control, and I don’t anticipate major schematic changes. The edge group should be solid after they paid a premium for Trey Hendrickson, but I still think this team will struggle against the pass. They ranked 22nd in opponent drop‑back EPA last season, and I’m not convinced they’ve fixed that. The linebackers remain strong with Roquan Smith leading the way, but the nose tackle spot looks a little soft to me. If you want to explore that further, the Ravens defensive outlook is full of red flags.
Overall, age feels like it could catch up to this roster, and the offense will need to score consistently to keep them afloat. With all these questions — new coaches, new scheme, roster turnover, and shaky pass defense — I have to lean under their win total. It just feels too high for a team with this many unknowns.
My Number: 9.67
Action – Under 11.5 wins -140 – 1 star
Baltimore Raven’s power rating: 3
2. Cincinnati Bengals
Vegas win total: 10.5 juiced to the under -140
2025 Wins: 6
Pythagorean Wins: 6.77
Schedule: Easy – At large @ Dolphins, @ Commanders, vs Chiefs
Schedule Last Year: Medium
Key losses: Edge Trey Hendricksen, Edge Joseph Ossai, TE Noah Fant, G Lucas Patrick, G Cordell Volson
Key additions: DT Dexter Lawrence, Edge Boye Mafe, S Bryan Cook, DT Jonathan Allen, S Kyle Dugger
Key Draft Picks: Edge Cashius Howell, CB Tacario Davis, C Conner Lew
Summary:
Somehow, the Bengals offensive line ranked seventh last year by certain metrics, and I’m still trying to figure out how that happened on a team that only won six games. Burrow played half the season, they ranked fifth in rush EPA, and yet the whole thing still felt like a car with three good tires and one that keeps hissing. Either way, Joe Burrow has to stay upright this year. The good news is that the offense didn’t lose anyone crucial, and they still have the best quarterback‑to‑wide‑receiver trio in the league. If the health cooperates, this team should put up points in bunches. Burrow will need to get the ball out quicker, though, and using Mike Gesicki more often could help take pressure off the edges. If you want to explore that fit, the Burrow–Gesicki connection is worth watching.
On defense, Al Golden returns as coordinator with something to prove, and the Bengals made real moves to fix last year’s issues. They landed one of the best nose tackles in football in Dexter Lawrence after that big first‑round pick trade, and they added Super Bowl–winning edge rusher Boye Mafe. Losing Hendrickson won’t matter much since he barely played last season anyway. The Bengals ranked 29th in defensive EPA, and if they can climb to even league average, they’re absolutely capable of winning this division. For more on that turnaround potential, the Bengals defensive rebuild is a major storyline.
My hesitation remains with Zach Taylor. Sometimes the players are so good that the coaching almost gets in the way, and this might be one of those situations. Peyton Manning once won a Super Bowl with the Colts while basically coaching himself, and this roster has shades of that dynamic. The most consistent thing about the Bengals, though, is that they start slow every single year. I have to assume that happens again. The smart play is to fade them early and jump back in after Week 2 or 3. If you want to track that trend, the Bengals early‑season pattern is something bettors know all too well.
My Number: 9.89
Action: Bengals to win AFC +1000 – .25 stars
Cincinnati Bengals Power Rating: -2
3. Pittsburgh Steelers
Vegas win total: 8.5 juiced to the under -120
2025 Wins: 10
Pythagorean Wins: 8.12
Schedule: Medium – At large @ Patriots, @ Eagles, vs Broncos
Schedule Last Year: Medium
Key losses: Coach Mike Tomlin, G Isaac Seumalo, RB Kenneth Gainwell, CB James Pierre, TE Conner Heyward, S Miles Killebrew, WR Calvin Austin, TE Jonnu Smith, DT Daniel Ekuale
Key additions: Coach Mike McCarthy, OC Brian Angelichio, DC Patrick Graham, WR Michael Pittman, CB Jamel Dean, RB Rico Dowdle, DT Sebastian Joseph, S Jaquon Brisker, C Brock Hoffman
Key Draft Picks: T Max Iheanachor, WR Germie Bernard, QB Drew Allar, CB Daylen Everette and a bunch of dudes
Summary:
If I had to think of a worse person to hire to coach Aaron Rodgers, it would take me a while to come up with a better (or worse) choice than Mike McCarthy. As a Bears fan, I personally enjoyed every second of their breakup and the blame‑fest that followed in Green Bay. Looking back at last season, this team massively overachieved again, winning ten games despite a Pythagorean win total hovering around eight. With all the coaching changes, it’s tough to lean too heavily on last year’s results, but there are still some clear trends worth noting. For more on that dynamic, the Rodgers–McCarthy history is always entertaining.
Offensively, I think coordinator Brian Angelichio might be fine after learning under Kevin O’Connell, but the defensive coordinator coming over from the Raiders is… not inspiring. He’s part of the NFL’s “boys club,” the group of coaches who keep getting recycled from team to team regardless of performance. The Michael Pittman trade looks serviceable, but let’s not forget how badly the DK Metcalf experiment went last year. Somehow the better receiver, Calvin Austin, was the one who had to go. If you want to dig deeper into that roster shuffle, the Steelers receiver situation is a mixed bag.
Statistically, the Steelers were a slightly below‑average defensive team and a very good rushing team thanks to Kenneth Gainwell. The real issue was the passing game, which ranked 26th in success rate — a number that explains a lot about their offensive ceiling. The draft didn’t help much either after the first pick. I still have no idea why you take Drew Allar when you just drafted Howard last year. On the bright side, I do like the defensive additions of Jamel Dean and Jaquan Brisker. The secondary should improve as long as T.J. Watt stays healthy and keeps terrorizing quarterbacks. The weak spot could be middle linebacker, because I’m not exactly a Patrick Queen believer. For more on that, the Steelers defensive outlook is worth tracking.
All in all, I just can’t imagine Mike McCarthy stepping in and leading this team to the promised land. At best, I see an average team — talented enough to hang around, flawed enough to frustrate you. I’m not betting the under anymore, but I’m definitely not buying the hype either.
My Number: 8.56
Action – No Play
Pittsburgh Steelers Power Rating: -1
4. Cleveland Browns
Vegas win total: 5.5 Juiced to the over -150
2025 Wins: 5
Pythagorean Wins: 5.92
Schedule: Easy – At large @ NY Jets, vs Raiders, @ NY Giants
Schedule Last Year: Medium Easy
Key losses: Coach Kevin Stefanski, Edge Myles Garrett, G Wyatt Teller, Edge Cam Thomas, DT Shelby Harris, TE David Njoku, T Jack Conklin, G Joel Bitonio, T Cam Robinson, C Ethan Pocic, T Cornelius Lucas
Key additions: Coach Todd Monken, OC Travis Switzer, DC Mike Rutenberg, Edge Jared Verse, QB DeShaun Watson, G Zion Johnson, C Elgton Jenkins, LB Quincy Williams, G Teven Jenkins, S Daniel Thomas, DT Kalia Davis
Key Draft Picks: T Spencer Fano, WR KC Concepcion, WR Denzel Boston, S Emmanuel Mcneil-Warren, T Austin Barber, C Parker Brailsford, LB Justin Jefferson, QB Talen Green
Summary:
The Browns do Browns things. You know — like trading the best player in football. Do I disagree with it? Not necessarily, if you’re the Browns, but it’s still pathetic to watch unfold. Either way, we’re going to see a completely new version of this team with a new head coach and a quarterback who hasn’t played more than nineteen games since 2021. There are so many changes here that it’s almost impossible to get a firm grasp on what this team will actually be. If you want to explore that chaos, the Browns overhaul is a full reset.
Let’s start with the coaching staff. I never liked Kevin Stefanski as much as the media did, but while the rest of the league is hiring young offensive minds, the Browns went with Todd Monken — a guy in his early sixties. I honestly have no idea how this will go, especially with Travis Switzer coming in from a long tenure with the Ravens as offensive coordinator. It’s hard to imagine a smooth first year. For more on that dynamic, the Monken hire raises plenty of questions.
Then there’s the quarterback situation. I don’t even know if Deshaun Watson is good anymore. I don’t know if Shedeur Sanders could politic his way into the starting job over him. What I do know is that the Browns will be rolling out a brand‑new offensive line that’s going to take time to gel. They have some solid running backs and exactly one decent wide receiver in Jerry Jeudy — at least until we see what the draft picks become. The Browns offensive outlook feels shaky at best.
Defensively, the Browns somehow ranked fourth in defensive EPA last year. How much of that was Myles Garrett being a one‑man wrecking crew? How much was opponents running the clock out while up multiple scores? New defensive coordinator Mike Rutenberg comes in from the Falcons, which doesn’t exactly inspire confidence. The good news is that linebacker Carson Schwesinger was a rare bright spot in an otherwise gloomy 2025 season, and he gives this defense at least one reliable anchor. If you want to dig deeper, the Browns defensive identity is still very much in flux.
For this season, I expect the offense to start out rough while the defense keeps games low‑scoring. Early in the year, this feels like a team you take a lot of unders on.
My Number: 4.96
Action: Lean Under
Cleveland Browns Power Rating: -7
