Cubs vs Brewers -250 O/U 7

Cubs vs. Brewers Preview (June 26, 2026)

The Cubs and Brewers meet in Milwaukee with both teams riding four‑game win streaks, setting up a high‑stakes NL Central showdown. The Brewers sit at 49–29, leading the division, while the Cubs are 44–37 and trying to close the gap.

🔥 Pitching Matchup

• Jacob Misiorowski (MIL): 8–3, 1.45 ERA, 0.75 WHIP, 138 K — one of the most dominant arms in baseball this season.

• Colin Rea (CHC): 5–5, 4.99 ERA — inconsistent, but the Cubs have been winning behind timely hitting.

This matchup heavily favors Milwaukee on the mound.

📊 Team Form & Edges

• Brewers: Elite pitching staff with a 3.38 team ERA, second‑best in MLB. They’re also strong at home (25–15).

• Cubs: Offense is streaky but improving; they’ve gone 10–3 in their last 13 despite major pitching injuries.

• Milwaukee swept the Cubs in their only previous series this season.

⚾ What to Watch

• Can the Cubs’ offense stay hot against one of the league’s toughest rotations?

• Will Misiorowski continue his Cy Young–level dominance?

• Can Chicago steal one on the road to tighten the NL Central race?

• ubs vs. Brewers — Advanced Stats Preview

  June 26, 2026 • Milwaukee

  Both teams enter on four‑game win streaks, but Milwaukee holds the edge in underlying metrics — especially on the mound.

   

  🔥 Pitching Matchup (Advanced Metrics)

  Jacob Misiorowski — Brewers

  • 1.45 ERA | 2.21 FIP | 2.48 xERA | 2.35 xFIP

  • 0.75 WHIP | 38.2% K% | 6.1% BB%

  • Stuff+ 132 | Pitching+ 129

  • Opponents hitting .158 xBA

  • Generates 31% CSW (elite)

  • Fastball averages 99.1 mph, top 3% in MLB

  Takeaway: Misiorowski isn’t just dominant — his peripherals say he’s sustainably dominant.

   

  Colin Rea — Cubs

  • 4.99 ERA | 4.61 FIP | 4.78 xERA | 4.55 xFIP

  • 1.39 WHIP | 17.4% K% | 8.9% BB%

  • Stuff+ 92 | Pitching+ 94

  • Hard‑hit rate allowed: 43% (bottom 20%)

  Takeaway: Rea is a pitch‑to‑contact arm facing one of the league’s most disciplined lineups — not ideal.

   

  📊 Team Advanced Metrics

  Milwaukee Brewers

  • Team ERA: 3.38 (2nd MLB)

  • Team FIP: 3.62 (4th)

  • Bullpen WAR: 2.9 (3rd)

  • Offense:

    • 108 wRC+ (10th)

    • .329 xwOBA (top 8%)

    • +27 Defensive Runs Saved

  Profile: Elite pitching + above‑average offense + strong defense = sustainable success.

   

  Chicago Cubs

  • Team ERA: 4.21 (17th)

  • Team FIP: 4.38 (20th)

  • Bullpen WAR: 1.1 (22nd)

  • Offense:

    • 101 wRC+ (league average)

    • .315 xwOBA

    • –6 Defensive Runs Saved

  Profile: Streaky offense, shaky pitching, and below‑average defense — but currently hot.

   

  ⚾ Key Advanced Matchups

  • Brewers vs RHP: 112 wRC+

  • Cubs vs RHP: 98 wRC+

  • Brewers Hard‑Hit Rate: 41%

  • Cubs Hard‑Hit Rate Allowed: 42%

  Prediction:

• The Cubs are coming off an away sweep of the Mets which in turn caused the Mets to fire their manager Chris Mendoza.  
• Looking at the Cubs bullpen and poor performing starting Pitcher Colin Rea, one would think this is a perfect spot to bet the Brewers coming off of a day of rest.  
• I would usually agree with that, but it’s not like this price justifies it.   The Brewers are MASSIVE favorites here against a hot Cubs team who should be able to keep it close through their offense.
• Whenever a solid offensive team like the Cubs are this big of dogs, you have to look at it.  I do not assume that the Miz is going to finish the whole game.  I think that Patrick already pitched two days ago for the Brewers making him a questionable reliever for Pat Murphy.  I am not scared of the rest.  
• Since the beginning of the season, the cubs rank 4th in wOBA and 3rd in wRC+ at 109.  The Cubs have a hitters chance to keep it within 2.

Cubs +1.5 +105 – 1 star