(Complete through Wednesday morning, September 2nd)
Arizona 2026 Preview:
Relevant Stats to Consider: 30-59 sack ratio. 65.6% pass D. Lackluster RB contributions. 29th point D. 31st rush yards per game.
Relevant Player and Coaching News:
Top signings: RB Allgeier, OT Semualo, four DL for depth, good return specialist
Top free agents lost: QB Murray, NT Tomlinson, MLB Davis-Gaither, safety Jalen Thompson, DE Calais Campbell (4/26)
Staff notes: I’m okay with new HC Mike LaFleur, who (thankfully) will call the plays instead of coordinator Nathanial Hackett. I am NOT okay with retaining defensive coordinator Nick Rallis. Why? The new special team coordinator is from the NYG.
Notable draft additions: RB Love, OG Bisontis, QB Beck
Analysis: Nothing earth-shattering, plus or minus. RB becomes a strong suit, but the secondary needs attention.
Roster Information, Including Key Players I’m Watching: While QB Brissett was serviceable in ’25, he’s not likely to be a difference-maker on a weekly basis. Rookie RB Love could be outstanding, but his real value will come once paired with a top 10-15 QB. That’s how things work in the NFL, as RBs on their own do not move the win needle. WR Harrison has underachieved thus far, but his potential remains high. TE McBride is a superstar. The OL remains a work in progress. Defensively, the ‘25 draftees have to step up. Only DT Proctor adds from the draft, and he’s taking a big leap up in class. Free agency added DL depth, but what else. Every line of defense has at least one sore spot. This remains one of the NFL’s weakest defenses. Players I’m watching include WR Marvin Harrison and DE Walter Nolan. Harrison has underachieved, and has lost focus on pass routes. Nolen is part of the ’25 draft class that needs to step up its game.
Schedule Analysis Recap: Unfortunately, Arizona faces teams from the AFC West and NFC East, instead of facing the AFC and NFC South. The end result: This is by far the NFL’s toughest schedule. The “easiest” game of the 1st 13 is at the NYG, and that comes after a road trip at SF. I’ll say it again; I’m not a fan of new coaches having late bye weeks. With so much already on a new coaches’ plate, there’s no time to make adjustments. Arizona’s bye week is December 13th, the latest date possible. Fatigue should set in by 11/8, the 2nd of back-to-back road games (Seattle). Games 15-17 are vs. three teams not expected to make the playoffs, but that likely is too late to salvage the season.
2026 Team Keys: Reducing sacks allowed. Justifying keeping DC Rallis. Pulling an early upset or two against this brutal 1st half schedule.
Preseason News and Notes: Arizona played four preseason games. The offense looked sharp, and RB Love ran 11-58 before his injury. This is a deep RB group. The WR concern is Mavin Harrison, who by all accounts did not have a great camp. As for the defense, they allowed 123 points and 5.5 per carry on the ground. The defense got in their requisite work, but didn’t stop anyone. Again, I point to coaching. The return unit was well below par. There’s some talent on this team, but it has to come together awfully soon.
2026 Seasonal Preview, Including Key Games, and Things to Look For: Ten of Arizona’s 1st eleven games are vs. teams expected to win at least 9.5 games. The other one is on the road, at the NYG. There’s hope offensively, but unless the ’25 defensive draft class overcomes potentially poor coaching, Arizona will be in trouble early. They catch the Lions in the 2nd of back-to back road games, go to LA (Rams), but LA will be off MNF and Arizona has had some success there, and host Washington in November, and they will be off a short week. I don’t have Arizona favored in any of their 1st 13 games. By this time, we should know if WR Harrison is carving out a legit NFL career, and if the defense can be coached up. Despite the obvious easier final four games, I give this team little to no chance to make the playoffs. KEY GAMES: 9/20 vs. Seattle and 10/4 at the NYG. They must win at least one of these games to stay even somewhat relevant.
Atlanta 2026 Preview:
Relevant Stats to Consider: The sack ratio flipped to an astounding 57-26. Atlanta usually hovered around 30 defensive sacks. This enabled the DBs to cover for less time, and the pass D% reduced from 70% to 62.6%. Atlanta had an interception ratio of +8. RB Bijan Robinson was outstanding. Almost everything else hovered around league average.
Relevant Player and Coaching News: Top signings: DE Leonard Flord, LB Divine Deablo, Kickoff/punt return specialist Jamal Agnew
Top signings: QB Tua, OT Jawaan Taylor, several DL add depth.
Top free agents lost: WR Mooney, LB Elliss, OT McGary (retired).
Staff notes: I’m thrilled at the GM change. Raheem Morris was a bottom five coach. Kevin Stafanski is at least a partial upgrade. Tommy Rees is the new offensive coordinator, with no change at defensive coordinator.
Notable draft additions: Atlanta had just my 30th rated draft class, unfortunately typical for this organization. CB Terrell joins his brother in the backfield, but timed speed could be an issue. WR/return specialist Branch could be one to watch.
Analysis: Other than Tua, the roster stayed about the same in talent. Can Tua win the job and deliver? Can Stafanski make a difference?
Roster Information, Including Key Players I’m Watching: Playing in a dome can’t hurt Tua, who is quite accurate when in rhythm. Turnovers from both Tua and Penix could be a concern. There’s modest at best talent behind stout WR London. No reinforcements were added to the OL, and further slippage could ensue. Defensively, things really improved with the pass rush, prompting new Head Coach Stefanski to keep DC Jeff Ulbrich. While LB got depth, only CB (Terrell) may have someone who will see even moderate playing time. I don’t think Atlanta got better on either side of the ball. The defensive numbers improved a year ago, but no one has this team top ten in defensive ratings. As I see it, the run defense may continue to struggle. Players I’m watching include who emerges as WR2 and where the pass rush will come from without two contributors the 1st half of the season. 8/31 update: Atlanta cut ’24 3rd round draft choice, DE Trice, who never played a snap. They recently traded for DT Dexter (Chicago), who has 11 sacks over the past two seasons.
Schedule Analysis Recap: Last year Atlanta was scheduled for a surprising five prime-time night games, plus a trip to Berlin to face the Colts. This year will be a bit less hectic, although weeks 3-5 are all in prime time. They play at GB on a Thursday Night, head to New Orleans for a MNF affair and then start their three-day homestand hosting Baltimore on Sunday Night. Atlanta’s uncommon opponents are home to SF and KC, and at Washington. Atlanta gives up a home game as the designated host in Madrid. SF has Raheim Morris as their new defensive coordinator. He was Atlanta’s Head Coach until he was fired at the end of 2025. I’m not sure if the new staff will be firing on all cylinders by the time they play at Tampa, and if they are losing games, will mental and physical fatigue begin to surface? I am sure that after playing in Madrid (vs. Joe Burrow and the Bengals), there will be fatigue the following week when they host KC. The bye week is after KC, not a wise choice for several reasons. Games 11-14 feature road games at Minny, Cleveland and Washington, and a home game vs. fellow dome team Detroit. New Head Coach Stefanski was Cleveland’s main man until he was fired at the end of last season. The schedule layout means Atlanta may play only one cold weather game, at Cleveland on 12/13.
2026 Team Keys: Somehow staying close to their +6 turnover ratio of ’25. QB consistency. Managing expected November fatigue.
Preseason News and Notes: The defense looked more than solid, with at least eight projected starters seeing some action. With Bijan Robinson sitting, the rush #’s in August were meaningless. Is this the team that will fully utilize WR Dotson? Rookie WR Branch still carries more weight as a return guy over a short area WR. The special team unit looked great. The roster will miss pass rusher Jalen Walker, and OLB Pearce has been suspended for games 1-8.
2026 Seasonal Preview, Including Key Games, and Things to Look For: Everyone is in contention in the South. Tua will be accurate in the dome, and just needs protection. Defensive sacks will be projected lower, but hopefully still slightly above league average. I’m not sure the pass D% will be at ’25 levels. I have an underdog situation (25-11 ATS) week one at Pitt, so maybe the Falcons can start fast. As noted above, games 3-5 are all in prime time. Games 5-7 are all at home. This is a nice setup, but the team isn’t used to being under the lights. I do project fatigue by the time they host Tampa on 11/1, and most certainly when they come off the Madrid game to host KC. My 1st pass through has them 4-6 before their bye. With 8 wins topping the division a year ago, 4-6 keeps them relevant. I like the spot 11/29 at Minny, but am unsure of HC Stafanski winning at his former place of residence (cold Cleveland) on 12/13. Games 15-17 are vs. Tampa (complete tossup no matter the odds), vs. New Orleans (conflicting long-term situations) and at Carolina. These warmer weather games could be a bonus for Tua if he remains the starter. KEY GAMES: The opener is important and could give them a leg up in the South, but overall, the divisional games will likely decide their fate.
The Final Word, Including Personal Strategy, and Tentative Power Rating: Atlanta only hit 6.8 wins on my Spring win grid. The roster doesn’t look any better now, but the coaching is better. Based on the pacing (some schedule fatigue), this might look about 6-9 before the final two games. I think the roster is better than this, but teams with bottom tier draft classes are on a miserable run, not meeting their projected season win total. Watch QB play carefully, coupled with any drop in pass coverage. For now, let’s keep the Falcons out of the playoffs. DECISIONS: No future plays, and with the whole NFC South unsettled, anything can happen. I do see fatigue a few times in the middle of the season, with that possible “play-on” spot 11/29 at Minny. My Power Rating set is 23.
Baltimore 2026 Preview:
Relevant Stats to Consider: Lamar Jackson and the rush offense was still #1 at 5.3 per carry and over 156 rush yards per game. RB Henry and WR Flowers led the way offensively with outstanding seasons. The biggest decline was their 30-46 sack ratio. The ratio was a combined 114-65 the previous two seasons. In ’24, the Ravens were 31st in pass yards allowed. They remained near the bottom, at 30th last year. In a surprise, most defensive areas finished outside of the top ten. PK Tyler Loop missed only one kick from inside 50 yards, but unfortunately, it was the kick that kept the Ravens out of the playoffs.
Relevant Player and Coaching News:
Top signings: Edge rusher Hendrickson, edge rusher Campbell
Top free agents lost: Center Tyler Linderbaum, TE Likely, OG Faalele.
Staff notes: I’m okay with Jesse Minter getting this opportunity, but will he bring the same attention to detail that Harbaugh did, especially as it relates to the entire special team unit? OC Declan Doyle may be decent, but replacing Todd Monken won’t be easy. I’m happy to see former DC Zach Orr go. Anthony Weaver “may” be an upgrade, as his best trait was on this side of the ball.
Notable draft additions: This was my 3rd rated draft class. OG Ioane was my safest offensive player from this draft class. Edge rusher Young fills a need, and the two WR’s (Lane, Sarratt) are potentially great additions. Two TE’s complete the pass-catching roster overhaul.
Analysis: Two big losses, necessitating OL and TE replenishing, but Hendrickson is a huge get. The draft added a starting OL, an edge rusher, and two highly rated WR’s, each with tremendous promise.
Roster Information, Including Key Players I’m Watching: This will be the most complete WR unit Lamar Jackson has ever had. The biggest news: Rookies Lane and Sarratt are tall targets, something new to this team. Combined with Zay Flowers, this adds variety to the pass game. Ioane starts immediately, with only center a weaker link. It’s a fragile OL, but should be a bit above league average. There should be pass rush improvement, but how much remains to be seen. I expect a positive sack ratio, but not to the impressive numbers of ’23-’24. News of CB Wiggins (injury) could weaken the CB unit. I like the safeties. Players I’m watching include both rookie WR’s, and Trey Hendrickson’s impact. I love the fit of the new WR’s, but Lamar must be comfortable throwing from the pocket. Sacks need to rise.
Schedule Analysis Recap: Baltimore’s uncommon opponents are home to the Chargers and at Buffalo and Dallas. They’ll face two teams off their bye week, but counter with five games having at least a one-day rest advantage. Todd Monken was Baltimore’s defensive coordinator from 2023-2025. His Cleveland team hosts the Ravens 10/18. Both Cincy and Buffalo will be off their bye weeks. Head Coach Minter was the LA Charger defensive coordinator last year. Now he hosts the Chargers on MNF. I feel the 11/22 Sunday game at Carolina (off a short week) could be a “trap”, especially with 44-10 revenge up next at dangerous Houston. The 12/6 bye is decently placed to allow a reset. The schedule turns “dynamic” after that, with a game hosting Tampa, followed by four divisional games. Baltimore was 0-2 vs. hated rival Pittsburgh a year ago, including the last play of the season missed field goal that changed this franchise’s fortunes. Trey Hendrickson will face his old Cincy team twice. Will the rivalry vs. Pitt be as intense without Harbaugh and Tomlin?
2026 Team Keys: The OL reducing sacks. Decisions at end of halves and games. The TE rotation, usage and effectiveness with a new coach.
Preseason News and Notes: Baltimore played like a team possessed in August. All stats looked great, including a 78-13 point ratio. How much does that matter since most of the 1st stringers did not play? Still, it sets a tone for the team and it is a good sign that the new staff is building confidence. Both rookie WR’s looked good, as did the rookie TE’s. The one concern is the kicking game, where Tyler Loop was just 3-6 from 40+ yards. Remember, this is based on just three games (all teams), so we’re basically looking for tendencies, and if teams are showing radically different figures from a year ago. On the injury front, OC Pinter landed on IR. He was the favorite to start in the middle of the OL. LATE NOTE: Tyler Loop was cut on 8/2. Jake Moody is the new PK. He’s also ran hot and cold in his career.
2026 Seasonal Preview, Including Key Games, and Things to Look For: A fresh start was welcomed in Baltimore, and August keeps them in a good frame of mind. I’m worried about the OL, but intrigued as to how Lamar fares with this nice WR group. The opener at Indy is tricky. I give a slight advantage to Baltimore due to Dan Jones being rusty. Any overseas game is tricky. Dallas will test this defense. With Atlanta on a (rare) short week, I give the Ravens the advantage in that prime-time road game. Baltimore stays on the road to face Cleveland. History makes it a tossup, but despite the travel, how “happy” are the Cleveland fans with their team? 5-1 is on the table before they host a rested Cincy squad. This is NOT a good stretch for the Ravens, with rested Buffalo and the Chargers up next. It sounds easy, but the goal is to split road games at Carolina (short week trap for Ravens) and at Houston before finally getting a new coach reset bye week. Historically (under Harbaugh) good after the bye, the Ravens next close with four divisional games. Building some win equity before late October is critical. KEY GAMES: The opener, and then 10/25 hosting rested Cincy.
The Final Word, Including Personal Strategy, and Tentative Power Rating: For the 1st rime in nearly two decades, Baltimore has a new Head Coach. Jesse Minter has to prove his worth, but unlike many a new coach, he gets to do it with one of the best rosters in the NFL. The 2026 draft made this roster even deeper. Minter hired Antoney Weaver as DC. I’ll be watching his performance on a weekly basis. I have 11-6 being doable, but will recheck with the updated season win grid (10.3 was the result in April/May). Watch the OL closely, along with the overall sack ratio. DECISIONS: Nothing to note right now, but it “seems” like the Ravens are ready to start the season, so maybe I’ll trend a bit more bullish early, and adjust as the stats come into focus. My Power Rating set is 30.
Buffalo 2026 Preview:
Relevant Stats to Consider: Josh Allen wasn’t quite as impressive in ’25, but still performed at a high level. The area that fell off was pass protection, as Allen was sacked 40 times. That’s league average, but he was sacked just 14 times in ’25, and 51 times in the previous two years, combined. It was expected that the turnover ratio of +24 (+14 fumble differential) would evaporate. Buffalo was +1 in turnover margin. RB Cook was fantastic, and Buffalo was #1 in the NFL, rushing for about 160 yards per game. WR play was basically league average. Defensively, Buffalo was #1 vs. the pass (157 yards per game), and top five in pass D% (59.7%). As expected, the run defense was poor, at 5.1-136 yards per game. Buffalo outgained opponents by more than 1,400 yards. There were no special team issues.
Relevant Player and Coaching News:
Top signings: WR Moore, DE Chubb, DB’s Geno Stone and CJ Gardner-Johnson
Top free agents lost: OG Edwards, DB Taron Johnson
Staff notes: New HC Brady and OC Pete Carmichael should keep the offense rolling. I like the hire of DC Jim Leonhard. While NOT a sure thing, his varied, patient realm of experience could serve him well. Buffalo is the 4th team in a row with a new special team coordinator (12 in total). The new guy had plenty of experience in Arizona.
Notable draft additions: The Bills lost value with edge rusher Parker and CB Igbinosun, but had the best rounds 4-5 of any team, with five players chosen, all with draft value. Four add immediate defensive depth, and WR Bell could see some rookie action as well.
Analysis: Maybe a slight uptick overall, and in the long run, the draft could bolster the defense.
Roster Information, Including Key Players I’m Watching: DJ Moore strengthens the pass catching options, and TE Kraft is returning from injury. The big watch is the OL, which has talent but must improve its pass protection. More than anything, the defensive scheme will be something to watch, as Jim Leonhard puts his stamp on the defense. The run D doesn’t look any better on paper. Not listed above (free agents lost) are LB Milano, plus three DL (Bosa, Ogunjobi, Daquan Jones) who are not on the current depth chart. Jordan Poyer had 70 tackles in ten games a year ago and is also not on the roster. Players I’m watching include WR Coleman (can he rebound from a dismal ’25), LB Chubb, and 2nd year CB Maxwell Hairston.
2026 Team Keys: DC Leonhard’s impact (+ or -). Checking for any OL slippage. Improving the run defense.
Preseason News and Notes: Buffalo’s new staff looked good (3-0, 88-48 ratio) for what that’s worth. I look for areas of potential improvement. The run D was at 3.5 per carry, so maybe DC Leonhard is changing things up. WR’s Moore and Shakir got in their requisite work, with Moore potentially bonding quickly. Only the top two TE’s were on the sidelines. I like the work put in by the front seven. The subs got plenty of action from the secondary. There were no noticeable red flags from the special team unit.
2026 Seasonal Preview, Including Key Games, and Things to Look For: Buffalo seeks revenge at Houston week one. Games 2-5 are tough. Going to Vegas after a MNF road game at the Rams is hardly ideal (likely stays out West?). 3-3 is likely before a well-placed bye week. Buffalo’s schedule eases up after 11/9, but the pacing (another road game off a road MNF game) is not ideal. When they host KC, it will be their 4th game in a 17-day period. In fact, the more I look at the pacing, the worse I view it. December features four road games in a five week stretch, three games with six, not seven days rest, and four ’25 playoff opponents. Jim Leonhard, can you overcome all of this? KEY GAMES: 11/1 vs. Baltimore and all the December games. Suddenly I feel that the AFC East race will be tighter than 1st thought. The Bills have rest before Baltimore, and then must navigate an almost unfair November and December schedule in terms of pacing and opponent.
The Final Word, Including Personal Strategy, and Tentative Power Rating: I thought that I might lower my projection after doing a very hard study of the scheduling inequities, but 11-6 seems to still be on the table. I’ll confirm with the revised win grid. Once again, study the OL to see if there’s any slippage, and keep a close eye on all defensive stats. In 2026, be prepared to see occasional strange results. The NFL didn’t care much about schedule pacing, and teams like this one could suffer an “unexpected” down game thanks to the short weeks piling up. DECISIONS: I made an early play on Buffalo winning the division at -130. The line opened a bit better than that, but was -150 or more as of this writing. I’m not as crazy about it now, but we’ll see. The ebbs and flows here are amazing, with so many bunched up games, yet a +14 rest day advantage. I’ll look for spots for and against based on team health. My Power Rating set is 30
Carolina 2026 Preview:
Relevant Stats to Consider: Bryce Young “improved” to over 63%, but still had seven games where he threw for a maximum of 150 yards. Only three times did he throw for over 206 yards. The Panthers finished 27th in both points scored and yardage. The defense was middle of the pack at best in most categories. They had just 30 sacks, and allowed in excess of 66%. The overall 3rd down success ratio (offense to defense) was well below par. Carolina only finished 8-9, but by Pythag standards, they were not as good as their record.
Relevant Player and Coaching News:
Top signings: DE Phillips, LB Lloyd.
Top free agents lost: NT Robinson, LB Rozenboom, LB Wonnum.
Staff notes: No changes.
Notable draft additions: This was a talented draft class, but one that did not match team needs. Two OL (Freeling, underrated Hecht) can help, as can DT Lee Hunter. WR Brazzell was properly drafted but will miss 2026 with injury.
Analysis: Some depth was added, but holes were not fixed.
Roster Information, Including Key Players I’m Watching: This is a do or die year in my opinion for Bryce Young. Modest talent exists offensively, but thanks to a combination of substandard and low quantity drafts, the reserves are below standard. Injuries this summer have hurt Carolina, especially at LB, which was already a thin spot. Like with the offense, the reserves are not of high quality. A few of the starters are very good, spread out over the formation. Safety play concerns me. Players I’m watching include all TE’s, especially Ja’Tavion Sanders, free agent pass rusher Jaelan Phillips (sorely needed) safeties Nick Scott and Tre’von Moehrig, and 3rd year WR Xavier Legette.
Schedule Analysis Recap: Carolina’s three uncommon opponents are home to Seattle and Denver, and at Philly. That’s not easy. Carolina will have to be a better team if they want to repeat as NFC South champions. While the schedule may be more difficult than their rivals, there are a few perks. 1st, they travel only 8,740 miles, the least of any team. 2nd, they play no teams off of a bye week. Finally, they close with four of their last five at home, which their Head Coach noted and loved when the schedule was released. ‘16 was the last time they had three prime time games. They host Detroit on Sunday Night week four, go to GB on Thursday Night, week 8, and travel to Tampa for MNF week 12. Carolina has an early bye, but being a younger team, they might be able to withstand playing 13 weeks in a row. Their toughest stretch of games is right after the bye. Jaelan Phillips and the Panthers travel to Philly, host Tampa (2-10 lately vs. the Bucs), go to GB on Thursday, and with extra rest, host Denver. Carolina lost both games vs. New Orleans in 2025. They go to their place on 11/15. This is another not-so-easy part of their schedule, with games vs. Baltimore, at Tampa on MNF and at Minny on a short week (back-to-back road games) after that. Like Atlanta, the goal is to win enough games to control their own destiny late. The four late home games are New Orleans, Cincy, Seattle and Atlanta. The lone road game is their only potential cold weather game, at Pittsburgh.
2026 Team Keys: The elimination of “dud” games by QB Young. Finding a pass rush. Who is the #2 pass catching target (WR or TE)?
Preseason News and Notes: Carolina played four preseason games. The stats that stood out were the 71.3% pass D, just 6 defensive sacks, and a modest at best return game. The LB’s and most of the DB’s saw action, so the pass D% remains a worry. Kenny Pickett looked bad, so it’s up to Bryce Young to take the next step. The team seemed to emphasize throwing to their TE’s in August. The PK and punter looked ready. In addition to losing OLB Scourton and rookie WR Brazzell, the Panthers will be without RT Moten and LT Ekwonu for a minimum of 4 games. Carolina also cut a potential LB starter, but added veteran LB Okereke.
2026 Seasonal Preview, Including Key Games, and Things to Look For: Carolina projects to a ceiling of 2-2 before the early bye. Anything less would be troublesome. I’ll watch QB play, the pass rush (projected low by me) and the WR unit. The Panthers are 2-10 SU lately vs. Tampa. That must change. If it doesn’t, 3-5 is the ceiling before they head to New Orleans. They catch the visiting Ravens off a short week, but I don’t like the scheduling setup the following two weeks. Get to 6-6, and Carolina flips the script. As noted above, four of their last five are at home, leaving only the game at Pittsburgh in potentially cold weather. With a relatively thin roster, Carolina can not afford any more injuries. KEY GAME: 10/25 hosting Tampa. This is a must “hold”, as the schedule turns against them until week #14.
The Final Word, Including Personal Strategy, and Tentative Power Rating: My 1st pass through was 7-10, but for now, that might be the ceiling. I’m concerned about the OL, the pass rush, and the ability to limit pass completions. Can Bryce Young scrap the bad games? There’s nothing special about the NFC South, so I won’t rule out contention, but Carolina’s win record may need to be enhanced by the teams they play on the schedule playing poorly, as by itself, I don’t have this team good enough to deliver a winning record on its own. DECISIONS: I went ahead and took UNDER 7.5 wins. Given the late (more advantageous) schedule, a December pivot is possible if the stat sheet gives me a reason to do so. Managing schedule layout is a useful tool in future’s wagering. My Power Rating set is 22.5.
Chicago 2026 Preview:
Relevant Stats to Consider: Ben Johnson had an immediate effect on team fortunes, both in close game results as well as nearly every offensive category. Chicago ran 4.9/144.5 yards per game, and had a balanced offense. Both coach and QB realize the next step is fixing Caleb’s 58% accuracy. Yes, the defense was outstanding in forcing turnovers, leading to a turnover ratio of +22, but all areas on this side of the ball were below average, including yards allowed (29th), rushing yards (27th), and passing metrics (22nd in yards per game it’s best figure). The biggest change was in pass protection, as the new staff reduced sacks allowed from 68 to 24. Rookie TE Loveland was a monster down the stretch. No other team stats stood out one way or another.
Relevant Player and Coaching News:
Top signings: OT Wills, OL Bradbury, DB Bryant (now on IR)
Top free agents lost: WR Moore, Center Dalman, LB Edmunds and DB’s Wright, Brisker, Byard and Gardner-Johnson
Staff notes: No changes
Notable draft additions: Safety Thieneman, TE Roush (adds a blocking dimension) and return specialist Zavion Thomas.
Analysis: 300 tackles and plenty of takeaways are gone from the secondary. The OL was fortified, and the return game gets some help.
Roster Information, Including Key Players I’m Watching: The plan is to unleash Caleb with more of the playbook, as the offense evolves with Ben Johnson. There’s little to no WR depth, but TE is in great shape. Yearly attention to the OL is paying off. I was certainly worried about RB Swift staying healthy. He did so in ’25. While that’s not a guarantee in ’26, at least RB Monangai emerged as a solid option. I like the DL, am okay with the LB’s, but have concerns with the secondary. Health is the overriding factor for this unit. Players I’m watching include Caleb Williams and his pass %, the new free safety (with Bryant hurt), and the other safety, rookie Dillon Thieneman.
Schedule Analysis Recap: All NFC North teams play the NFC South and the AFC East. That’s not bad. Chicago’s 1st place schedule finds them hosting Philly and Jacksonville and at Seattle for their trio of games vs. uncommon opponents. Chicago has a few schedule nuggets in their favor. They have the NFL’s best rest differential at +15. They play no teams off a bye. Five times they will have over seven days between games. They travel the 3rd fewest miles (10,676). The negatives: They will have six short weeks (tied for the most in the NFL), and the schedule itself is considered quite difficult. The pacing starts out great, with games 2-4 all at home. Games 7-9 are all in prime-time. They host NE on Thursday Night (nice to be at home on a short week), get extra rest before going to Seattle for a tough game on MNF, and then have a shorter week but play at home, hosting Tampa on Sunday Night. The bye is next, and well-placed. Chicago was 2-4 vs. divisional rivals last year, and 0-2 vs. the Lions. They play at Detroit on Thanksgiving. That gives them extra rest before hosting the Jags. Closing games are vs. Detroit (Chicago three extra day edge) and at Minny.
2026 Team Keys: Caleb hitting at or near 65%. RB Swift staying healthy. The new faces in the secondary. The return game “upgrade”?
Preseason News and Notes: The DB room is already down one starter, so they need Kyler Gordon to get 100% healthy. The overall preseason stat sheet didn’t stand out, plus or minus. Backup QB Bagent had a solid camp. Chicago drafted “differently” in ’26, with specific positional intent. Blocking TE Rouse looked fine, while return specialist Thomas looked electric. In a surprise, projected starting DT Dexter was traded to Atlanta. The return defense was not very good. This needs to be monitored. NOTE: CB Kyler Gorden starts out on the PUP list, but the GM has said that he doesn’t know if or when he will be back.
2026 Seasonal Preview, Including Key Games, and Things to Look For: Based on the draft and on preseason play, Ben Johnson has been quite calculating in his tenure in Chicago. If Caleb is unleashed, Chicago has filled in other gaps (blocking TE, return game) that could make a difference. I’ll certainly be watching the rebuilt secondary when they face competent or better opponents. My stat projections are modest, with a plus sack ratio, but still a below par pass D%. Obviously, turnovers will spike down from ’25. Despite the 1st place schedule, I like the early pacing. If they can win at Atlanta then 4-2 might be on the table. Chicago has had plenty of success hosting Tampa. Can they get another win on a short week before their bye? The game hosting Jacksonville sees them in an enormous scheduling advantage. Games 14-17 will be tough. They have a short week to play at Buffalo (2nd straight road game), host GB with a slight rest edge, host Detroit, and finish at Minny. The NFL is stacking divisional games up late as these races figure to be quite contentious. KEY GAME: None in particular, but the final three divisional games will likely determine who wins the NFC North.
The Final Word, Including Personal Strategy, and Tentative Power Rating: My original pass through said 10.3 wins. I can see as low as 9.5 now (pending my final win grid analysis), which means I am surprisingly not going to fade the Bears. The usual pattern is to fade teams with 1st place schedules, coupled with an unusual stat line, which in this case is the unsustainable turnover ratio. Despite what could be a weak secondary, I like the moves made in other positional areas, and like the staff being able to get their QB to soar even higher. On the other hand, if Caleb does NOT improve his accuracy, maybe close games won’t skew as positive as in ’25. Lots of moving parts as we begin ’26. DECISIONS: I will likely PASS on recommending seasonal unders, but still feel a bit bearish when they face decent QB’s (and the schedule of QB’s to be faced seems stronger than in ’25). By Pythag standards, some regression remains possible. My Power Rating set is 26.5.
Cincinnati 2026 Preview:
Relevant Stats to Consider: Joe Burrow is a dead certain top three QB, but he can’t stay healthy. The run game was below average, even with a decent starter (Chase Brown). Cincy uses three TE’s, and they didn’t move the needle much. The Bengals changed defensive coordinators but this side of the ball was still an issue. Sacks were below par (34), and the run D clocked in at 5.2-147 per game, 31st and 32nd overall. They were 30th in points allowed. Cincy is 6-11 at home the past two seasons.
Relevant Player and Coaching News:
Top signings: DL Boye Mafe and Jon Allen, plus DB Byran Cook (Dexter Lawrence added as well)
Top free agents lost: DE’s Ossai and Hendrickson, and safeties Geno Stone and Kyle Dugger.
Staff notes: Al Golden is in his 2nd season as DC as the staff remains intact
Notable draft additions: Edge rusher Howell, two serviceable OL, and longshot (but talented) WR Colbie Young. Cincy has seen some below par (to say the least) draft classes leading up to ’26, but this draft was at least a partial return to what they used to accomplish on draft day.
Analysis: At best, this is close to even, but Cincy likely lost a little ground during free agency.
Roster Information, Including Key Players I’m Watching: It’s an issue if Burrow, RB Brown, or WR’s Chase and Higgins miss time. The OL is starting to solidify and is no longer a liability. TE is varied, but not necessarily impactful. Where will defensive sacks come from? Dexter Lawrence must lead the way. On paper, Cincy may have added enough talent along the DL to make improvements. Perhaps that’s also true in the back seven, but league average might be the more appropriate goal. Players I’m watching include “3rd string” TE Erick All and free agent DE Boye Mafe. If ever healthy, TE All has some hidden talent. Mafe seems like just a role player, but can he do more than that?
2026 Team Keys: Showing solid defensive improvement. Winning early, to not get behind in the standings. Keeping WR Higgins healthy.
Preseason News and Notes: Cincy has high expectations for ’26 and the team looked better this August as compared to last August (yes, I track that). I’ll be interested to see if rookie WR Young (6-85) is ready to contribute early on. Not many defensive starters played in August, but the reserves looked better than expected. It’s all systems go for special team play thus far.
2026 Seasonal Preview, Including Key Games, and Things to Look For: One other key is to win more at home. Cincy opens vs. Tampa and on 10/4, hosts Jacksonville. The Bengals have been unreliable in openers, but that needs to stop. Not only is the schedule fair, but after going 0-4 vs. the NFC North in ’25, the Bengals play the NFC South. Coaches think in quartiles. This is a fact. Given the 17-game schedule, Cincy’s 1st quartile ends after game #5, as they bye week follows. Readers, this is an excellent time to check the pass rush. Winning at Baltimore right after the bye is not out of the question, as noted in the schedule analysis recap. We’ll know if this veteran staff is holding their weight when they play in Madrid vs. a new Atlanta coaching staff. I don’t like the pacing at all for the rest of November, so mark me down for some possible play against action. There are no scheduling traps after that, so it’s up to Cincy to hold serve at home (December is usually their best home month ATS) and not let down vs. the three mediocre road opponents. KEY GAMES: Winning in Madrid on 11/8, and winning hosting KC on 12/13. These are the types of games good teams win.
The Final Word, Including Personal Strategy, and Tentative Power Rating: The NFL is better when key players stay healthy. Joe Burrow can put this team on equal footing with the Ravens if he plays all 17 games. Baltimore has the deeper roster, especially defensively, but Cincy has the more favorable schedule and looks better on paper as compared to ’25. My 1st pass through had them at 9.5 wins and 10-7 seems logical right now. The oddsmakers and the public are bullish on the Bengals, and there is no line value wagering on the overs. Pinning one’s hopes on player health has never been in my arsenal, and that’s why I have a 77% win total track record, and usually an 80% or higher under portfolio. DECISIONS: Cincy has nine games vs. new coaching staffs. Again, they need to get off to a quicker start and seal wins at home to prove they belong. I think some home lines can be inflated and will look at opportunities to fade when the matchups dictate so, including a very unfavorable situation 11/15 hosting the Steelers. Otherwise, I’ll strive for balanced action. My Power Rating set is 27.5.
Cleveland 2026 Preview:
Relevant Stats to Consider: After finishing last in points scored in ’24, Cleveland was still pitiful, coming in 31st. Total yards finished 30th, and most offensive areas were 27th or worse. The 3rd down conversion rate was downright awful. Three QBs combined to hit 58% with a 16-18 ratio. They allowed 51 sacks. The defense fared much better. Led by Myles Garrett, they recorded 53 sacks, were 3rd in pass yards allowed, and 4th in total yards allowed. Their 3rd down defense was solid.
Relevant Player and Coaching News:
Top signings: Three potential OL starters, LB Quincy Williams. DE Verse (trade)
Top free agents lost: Two past OL starters, TE Njoku, Edge rusher Garrett (trade)
Staff notes: Todd Monken is the new HC. With divisional ties, this will be interesting, plus he’s offensive-minded. Mike Rutenberg is the new DC. He has 13 years of NFL experience but his pedigree worries me. This may be a downgrade from Jim Schwartz. Cleveland needed a new special team coordinator. The new guy comes from Green Bay, a team who has lived at the bottom of special team play for years.
Notable draft additions: OT Fano, WRs Conception and Boston, safety McNeill-Warren, additional OL depth, TE Royer. My #1 class. This comes off a ’25 draft class with defensive player of the year (LB) Schwesinger, TE Fannin, DT Graham and RB Junkins (and yes, 2 QB’s).
Analysis: Players lost were expendable, at least until the Myles Garrett trade. The needle still points up thanks to my #1 rated draft class.
Roster Information, Including Key Players I’m Watching: Cleveland has a vision, and is one QB away from making a real leap in the standings. The OL got needed attention. RB Junkins needs to improve his per carry average, but there’s potential. WR has been fortified, and TE Fannin was one of my favorites from the deep ’25 class. Verse can play, and although not elite like Garrett, he will be a decent starter. There “seem” to be no weak links defensively, but I am worried about the new DC. Players I’m watching include the rookie WR’s. Rookie LT Fano, and ’25 rookie DT Mason Graham. The biggest concern is the rookie Fano in what is an all new Cleveland OL.
2026 Team Keys: Securing “adequate” QB play. Improving the yards-per-carry run O. The new DC. Pass protection (of course).
Preseason News and Notes: In warm weather, QB Gabriel makes sense. He outplayed Watson and Sanders, but I never liked the fit for this team. None of the backup RBs behind Junkins (4-9) will be useable. The top three WR’s played one game each. That’s fine, but the depth behind them is not to be trusted. The rebuilt OL held up in the preseason. It’s just preseason, but concerning to me that Cleveland allowed 78 points. Admittedly, most of the 1st string sat. I’ll monitor this closely in September. There may be some options in the return game. The one big injury loss is DE Alex Wright (IR).
2026 Seasonal Preview, Including Key Games, and Things to Look For: The positives are the top draft class, a decent defense, and a potentially improved OL. The negatives could include losing their DC, and obviously include losing Garrett, and QB play. There’s also uncertainty at RB and even if the OL is better, they may have a tough task protecting for this QB room. Jacksonville’s defense presents an early challenge for Cleveland’s QBs. Both Tampa and Carolina possess a modest at best pass rush, so maybe the Browns can start faster than expected. I noted their favorable situation at the Jets up above. Winners of four of their last seven hosting Baltimore, are we underestimating Cleveland due to the schedule alignment? Yes, they next face a trio of road games, but a split of the 1st two is quite possible. With basically only one unfavorable scheduling spot down the stretch, my job (and everyone’s job) is to access QB play, the revamped OL, the early impact of the #1 draft class, and the new DC, and adjust accordingly. But Deshawn Watson has a very low ceiling in my eyes. KEY GAMES: Games 2-3 at Tampa and vs. Carolina, and game #5 at the Jets. This screams 2-1. With other favorable spots coming up, any early positive feedback would be quite a boost.
The Final Word, Including Personal Strategy, and Tentative Power Rating: If the run game underwhelms it will put too much pressure on the OL and QB. That’s a worry. I initially had Cleveland at 7-10, and pending my final win grid, I remain at 7-10. DECISIONS: I think there are so many great check points for this team that I WILL be able to adjust during ’26. This could go in either direction. Normally bullish on this kind of resume (draft class, free agency, schedule), I won’t do it with Watson at QB. In fact, I’ll try to fade him and Cleveland’s team totals when facing a decent pass rush and/or pass defense. I expect to pivot at times when the QB situation changes, coupled with the positive scheduling possibilities. No early futures, but yes, a game plan has been constructed. My Power Rating set is 2o.5.
Dallas 2026 Preview:
Relevant Stats to Consider: Dallas thrived offensively, led by QB Prescott and his two outstanding WR’s. The run game was better than advertised, TE play was decent, and the OL held up just fine, as always. Defense? Forget it, as one-year DC Matt Eberflus oversaw one of the worst ever Cowboy’s defense, with the unit finishing dead last in many a category. The pass D% led the way at 68.2%. Sacks were low, at 35, but not horrendous. Unfortunately, it paled when stacked against the 151 sacks from years ’22-’24.
Relevant Player and Coaching News:
Top signings: DL Gary, DB’s Thompson and Durant. Von Miller signed on 8/16.
Top free agents lost: DE Osa Odighizuwa.
Staff notes: Christian Parker is the new DC. He’s just 34 years’ old, with five years of NFL experience coaching DBs. It’s still likely an upgrade, even if he learns on the job. The defensive roster will likely be much better as well.
Notable draft additions: Safety Caleb Downs is the big get. Two edge rushers offer some down the road hope.
Analysis: Not much really happened, but better defensive health, a new DC, and rookie Downs make this a net gain.
Roster Information, Including Key Players I’m Watching: If Ryan Flournoy can develop a bit more it would help for WR depth. 2nd year RB’s Blue and Mafah did nothing as rookies, but maybe they step up to give RB Williams some help. Maybe RT could be fortified, but the rest of the offense is fine. Not noted above is that Dallas now has a pair of ex-GB DL, Gary and Clark. That might help vs. the run. Maybe 2nd year LB Ezeiruaku steps up his game. If not, LB still has holes. I think we’ll see some improvement with the secondary. The return game and kicking game are solid units. Players I’m watching include TE Jake Ferguson (can he take the next step in his game), LB Donovan Ezeiruaku, (NCAA sack specialist can up his game in year #2) and CB’s Colbie Durant and Shavon Revel (decent ceiling, low floor). 8/31 UPDATE: Both RB’s Blue and Mafah were cut. I spoke about both in that draft report. The Cowboys did trade for OL depth, obtaining OT Broderick Jones.
Schedule Analysis Recap: All NFC East teams play the tough NFC West and AFC South. That’s easier than what the NFC East faced a year ago. The three uncommon opponents Dallas plays are home to Tampa and Baltimore, and at GB. Dallas will not play any team off their bye week, and will only have a rest disadvantage once. The NFC East is much improved, so the actual slate of games will be difficult. They start with two divisional games, including a Sunday Night opener at the NYG. Game three is in Brazil, vs. Baltimore. Although it’s a short trip, next week’s game at Houston won’t be easy. Games 5-7 are home to Tampa on Thursday Night, then at GB with extra rest and at Philly on MNF. Games 3-5 are played within just a 12-day period. Dallas sees Micah Parsons when at GB (and DL Clark and Gary are now on Dallas. There’s no letdown factor the next game since Arizona beat Dallas AT Dallas on MNF last year. Still, with a week 14 bye and many intense games, November fatigue could happen. The 11/8 game at Indy is dangerous. SF comes to Dallas next. The 49ers won the last four meetings. That starts of a trio of home games, with Philly on Thanksgiving the 3rd one. Dallas has a three-day rest edge when they play at Seattle on Sunday Night. The bye after that prevents having a short week to prep. That leads to another rest advantage when they play at the LA Rams. They open and close ‘26 with NYG/Washington. There’s no clear stretch of “easy” games, but the net rest differential is +12.
2026 Team Keys: The impact of rookie safety Caleb Downs. The young DC. The ceiling for HC Brian Schottenheimer.
Preseason News and Notes: OLB Von Miller is now a Cowboy, as is OT Broderick Jones vis a trade. Dallas rested every projected ’26 starter! What did I learn? I don’t like any WR beyond Flourney. The secondary will clearly be in better health than a year ago.
2026 Seasonal Preview, Including Key Games, and Things to Look For: Usually dominant when the game counts, opening at the NYG and Jim Harbaugh will be quite interesting now. The best I see is a split of the Rio game (Ravens) and the game at Houston. It’s three games in a 12-day stretch, but at least they host (Tampa). I’ll precheck everything about the new Dallas DC and the defensive #’s. Veteran teams such as this one are capable of starting fast, but I find games 1-7 tricky, and 4-3 might be the ceiling. As said above, I need to watch for November fatigue, beginning with the game 11/9 at Indy. The two games before the very late bye (Philly on Thanksgiving, at Seattle on MNF) seem like 1-1 at best. How’s the road record? Can they compete at LA (Rams) with the extra rest? If rookie Caleb Downs is showing impact, and the defense as a whole has improved, then games 15-17 could make Dallas very relevant in the NFC East. KEY GAMES: The opener at the NYG and maybe 11/8 at Indy. I think 2-0 in these games would be very meaningful.
The Final Word, Including Personal Strategy, and Tentative Power Rating: I originally had them just over 9-8, but as of 8/31 I think 10-7 is in play. There’s a path to winning the East, but that’s partly in their control (new DC, key additions on defense) and partly out of their control (improvement across the division). This will be a good year for the NFC East. Dallas has legit playoff aspirations. DECISIONS: No preseason decisions, but if the defense is ready, I will have at a minimum, balanced weekly action. The games 1-7 layout worries me, so maybe there’s value to be had once things settle down. This should be a fun team to stat check all year. My Power Rating set is 27.5.
Denver 2026 Preview:
Relevant Stats to Consider: The defensive stat sheet was exceptional. They allowed 18.3 points per game, just 278 per game in total yardage, and somehow managed to top their 63-24 sack ratio in ’24 by achieving a 68-23 ratio last year. The outstanding secondary allowed 57.8%. Strangely, Denver did NOT win by margin, creating a negative Pythag figure. QB Dart is still a work in progress, and most offensive stats were in the middle of NFL ranking. For whatever reason, Denver is penalty prone. They are bottom three in net penalty yards in each of the past two seasons. The special team units (especially offensively) were outstanding.
Relevant Player and Coaching News:
Top signings: WR Waddle (by trade).
Top free agents lost: DE Franklin-Myers, LB Greenlaw.
Staff notes: No changes
Notable draft additions: WR Waddle cost Denver a 1st round pick. The average draft got them RB Coleman, OG Casey, and two more TEs.
Analysis: Denver was quiet before and during the draft except for the Waddle trade.
Roster Information, Including Key Players I’m Watching: I expect more down the field throws now with QB Nix fully acclimated, plus having Waddle on the team. RB is at least four deep. TE is about 15 deep (actually 6). The OL has adapted well to how HC Payton operates and remains above average. Finding a weak spot on the starting 22 is difficult. I think there will be a drop defending the run, but maybe it’s only a slight drop. LB may not be as deep as they would like. The secondary is locked and loaded. Players I’m watching include 2nd year RB R.J. Harvey, the replacement on the run D for Franklin-Myers, and 2nd year CB Jahdae Barron (1st round pick).
Schedule Analysis Recap: All AFC West teams play the AFC East and the NFC North. That’s a slight upgrade in schedule difficulty from ‘25. Denver hosts Jacksonville and travels to Pittsburgh and Carolina for its games vs. uncommon opponents, which isn’t bad. Game one (MNF vs. KC) is strange. Both QB’s (Nix, Mahomes) come off injury. It’s an important divisional game, but why week one? Sean Payton holds grudges. The Jags beat Denver last year, and Liam Coen said the following: “I’m just thankful that a small market team like us can come into a place like Mile High and get it done.” The rematch is again at Denver. Games 3-6 are home to the Rams (Sunday Night), at SF, at the Chargers, and home to Seattle (Thursday Night). That’s six games vs. teams with a record of 68-34 in 2025, counting KC’s 6-11 mark. Things calm down after that. Having ten days before going to Arizona likely avoids the dreaded “trap game” factor. Denver hosts KC on 11/1 right after KC visits Seattle on Sunday Night. The schedule is quite kind all the way through 12/20 (at Vegas). The toughest games are at Pitt on the Friday after Thanksgiving, and at the Jets on 12/13 (last two meetings 10-9 and 13-11 wins). When Denver hosts Miami they will have two extra prep days. This is WR Waddle’s old team. The closing games are tougher, vs. Buffalo (Bills playoff overtime revenge), at NE (Denver with AFC title game revenge) and vs. the Chargers. Revenge games in December/January are often non-factors, but we’ll see come game time. Denver gets two extra days before playing at NE. The Chargers close at potentially cold Denver for the 2nd season in a row.
2026 Team Keys: Stretching the field more. More long gainers in the run game. Not slipping defending the rush.
Preseason News and Notes: Denver was stout a year ago in August, and decent again this year. The WR’s and most of the RB’s saw action. As expected, 95 TE’s contributed, as we look for subs almost every single snap. Defensive sacks were way down, but still should be strong in the regular season. The staff and team did enough to get ready for ’26, and Bo Nix looked good to go off his injury.
2026 Seasonal Preview, Including Key Games, and Things to Look For: It’s anyone’s guess in game #1 at KC, but the winner gets a nice leg up. The revenge factor is good vs. the Jags, but this is a short week. LA (Rams) has travel issues, but this is hardly an easy home game. With games at SF and the Chargers next, 2-3 would be a realistic result, while 3-2 would be pretty good in my eyes. Oh yes, hosting Seattle won’t be easy in game #6. Wins could be plentiful after that. The watch areas are NOT as clear as with the recent teams I’ve previewed, but watching for defensive slippage (if any) is high atop my list. I expect at least 6-2 heading to the final three games. Denver isn’t flashy, but they seem to be very clearly a team that can win the West. KEY GAMES: Going 2-2 in games 3-6 (Rams, at SF, at LAC, Seattle). Do that, and I think Denver will be favored to win the division.
The Final Word, Including Personal Strategy, and Tentative Power Rating: With no massive roster changes, Denver is about as stable a team out there. My April/May win grid had them winning the AFC West at 10.5-6.5, and right now I think 11-6 is indeed in play. It won’t be easy early on, but there are few, if any roster holes, and the staff is good. DECISIONS: I took +220 to win the division while in Vegas early in August. I’m not as stout with divisional futures as with season win totals, but I like the value. I could even supplement that with an in-season win total if Denver is “just” 3-3, or even 2-4 early on if I think the stat sheet is better than the win total. Admittedly, I like the Chargers roster as much or more, but their schedule is ridiculously unfavorable, and not just with the rest differential of -24. In an interesting twist, teams in the AFC with 1st place schedules have it easier than those with 2nd place schedules. As an example, the Chargers will play Houston, Baltimore and Tampa, while Denver plays Jacksonville, Pittsburgh and Carolina. In my opinion, this is advantage, Broncos. My Power Rating set is 28.
Detroit 2026 Preview:
Relevant Stats to Consider: Detroit’s defensive (and offensive) aggressiveness is both a blessing and a curse. The pass D% has been rapidly improving, but yards allowed remain high. The offense was 5th in scoring, but Dan Campbell still changed coordinators. Most offensive areas were in the top ten. The sack ratio was 49-39. In good news, Detroit enters ’26 with a positive Pythag figure. The trio of QB Goff, RB Gibbs and WR St Brown are as good as any in the NFL.
Relevant Player and Coaching News:
Top signings: RB Pacheco, LB Wommun, safety Chuck Clark.
Top free agents lost: Two OL starters, RB Montgomery, LB Anzalone, DB Amik Robertson, , and additional defensive depth. Former 1st round CB Arnold was cut after an off the field issue. Teams aren’t afraid of cutting players who are not performing at the level expected.
Staff notes: Dan Campbell is an excellent motivator but not an X and O guy. That’s fine if you trust your staff. Another new OC is here with Drew Petzing. He was Arizona’s OC for three years. Kevin Sheppard is in his 2nd year as DC. He improved the pass rush and pass D% in year #1, but the Lions allowed 110 more points this past season.
Notable draft additions: Detroit had another subpar draft, but this one contained no shocking miscues. They added LB and edge depth, with CB Abney now likely to see a slightly larger role. The top pick, OT Blake Miller, will start day one.
Analysis: While OL were added, this area, and RB suffered a net loss. The defense also lost more than they gained.
Roster Information, Including Key Players I’m Watching: 2nd year WR TeSlaa only caught 16 passes, but six went for TDs. Maybe he rounds out the WR unit in a good way. Even with OL losses, this is still a very solid group. The offense should remain potent. I’m not sure how and why the pass D% has been as good as it has been of late (Hutchinson being healthy has helped), as the secondary isn’t as complete a unit as it needs to be. In taking a 2nd look at the roster, I think there’s more talent than they get credit for. Still, league average is more of what they grade out as, except for Hutchinson. Players I’m watching include 2nd year WR Isaac TeSlaa, the usage of TE Sam LaPorta, and CB’s D.J. Reed (low ceiling) and Ennis Rakestraw (disappointing 1st two years, some injuries contributed).
Schedule Analysis Recap: Coaching changes, a massive increase in Prime-Time games, seven instead of three outdoor games, negative pacing issues, AND new coordinators and position coaches (6) was too much for this team to overcome last year. Welcome to ’26. The Lions clearly have the NFL’s easiest schedule heading into the season. The pacing weeks 1-9 is great. The road game on a short-week Thursday Night in Buffalo as they open their new stadium isn’t ideal, but road games vs. Carolina and Arizona have normal pacing. After the bye, they are home to GB and Minny, teams that swept the Lions a year ago. The Lions will be the more focused team in both instances. Detroit goes to Munich for a 10/15 game vs. NE. That won’t be easy, and it comes after playing on the road at Miami. Playing a rested Tampa team at their place off the Munich trip isn’t ideal. It’s unfortunately three games in eleven days, as the Lions host Chicago on Thanksgiving the following Thursday. Games at Atlanta (Lion’s +3 rest differential) and home to Tennessee are next. Detroit closes in an unusual fashion. Three of their last four games are AT Chicago, GB and Minny. The game at Minny is on Sunday Night. Games at Chicago and GB end the season, and are outdoors in potentially (very) cold weather.
2026 Team Keys: No slippage from QB Goff. The safeties “covering” for (my) CB concerns.
Preseason News and Notes: The defense looked good despite roster issues in the secondary. Virtually no one of note played on offense. The OL has depth issues with Cade Mays on the PUP list and two reserves also out. The return offense needs someone to step up. Safeties Branch and Joseph will miss at least four games. TE LaPorta may be on track to start the opener.
2026 Seasonal Preview, Including Key Games, and Things to Look For: The schedule is so kind that it’s hard to find any potential pitfalls. 9/17 at Buffalo is difficult. 11/15 in Munich is difficult, but a neutral scheduling situation. The Tampa game after that is challenging. With decent injury luck the Lions could lead the division and should before they face those closing road games, the last two of which are out in the cold at Chicago and GB. 9-4 sure looks possible before their closing stretch. I’d suggest watching secondary play early and often, and also looking to see if a WR3 emerges. KEY GAMES: 10/25 and 11/1 hosting GB and Minny. The Lions were 0-4 vs. these teams a year ago. Given the tough closing road schedule, taking care of business right now could create space between them and the rest of the division.
The Final Word, Including Personal Strategy, and Tentative Power Rating: I’m not thrilled about the overall roster, but they have several impact players who can carry the load, and a favorable schedule to make that happen. The backups on this team are not that good thanks to drafts that were low on quantity, coupled with recent free agency losses. I had the Lions with a sliver of an edge (10.3 vs. 10.2 and 10.1) with my April/May win grid, clearly thanks to this schedule. Pending the final win grid analysis, 10+ wins remain on the table. Watch the secondary very closely. DECISIONS: The Pythag and the #1 schedule had me leaning OVER the win total, but the oddsmakers and public are aware of the schedule, and there’s no value, especially with a roster that is weaker now. I have no real plan as of 8/31, but would love to replicate my 6-2 ATS record in their games, achieved in ’25. More study is needed. My Power Rating set is 27.5.
Green Bay 2026 Preview:
Relevant Stats to Consider: Green Bay (GB) lost ground offensively in ’25, although QB Love’s stat sheet was excellent. They allowed just 29 sacks, and converted an exceptionally high % of 3rd down attempts, but scoring came in at 16th. Most areas defensively were a little above league average. The real problem continues to be special team play. The return defense is never good. Their PK was 6-12 from 40+ yards. The punt return offense was poor. Maybe there’s hope (see below)?
Relevant Player and Coaching News:
Top signings: LB Franklin.
Top free agents lost: WR Doubs, OL Walker and Jenkins, DE Gary, CB Quay Walker. WR Wicks (traded).
Staff notes: Jeff Hafley did a credible job as DC, but he’s off to Miami. Ex-Arizona Head Coach Jonathan Gannon takes over. He was Philly’s DC for two years prior to his Arizona stint. Is he the right guy? I have no issue with GB changing special team coordinators.
Notable draft additions: In a smaller than usual draft (Micah Parsons trade), the additions are basically CB Cisse and Punter Smack.
Analysis: GB lost WR depth, RB depth, their backup QB and a few defensive players. The roster is not quite as good as in ’25.
Roster Information, Including Key Players I’m Watching: All eyes are on RB Lloyd, who has basically been hurt his 1st two seasons. His emergence would help diversify the offense. Even with a slimmed down WR unit, the talent is strong. A return to health for TE Kraft is essential, or this unit suffers. The OL seems to do their part, but it looks league average to me. The DL took some hits, and even with run-stuffer Wyatt, I think the unit is down. Micah Parsons will miss at least four games. Where will the extra pass pressure come from? This looks like another year of opposing QB’s finding open WR’s. The starting five in the secondary seem below par. GB hopes Skyy Moore is the answer in the return game. We’ll wait and see if the return defense gets better. Players I’m watching include WR Jayden Reed (can he emerge as a WR1 or high WR2), RB MarShawn Lloyd (I have concerns with the two guys ahead of him), Devonte Wyatt and others trying to defend the run (I see run D slippage), and CB’s Keisean Nixon and Carrington Valentine. ROSTER UPDATE: GB signed TE Jonnu Smith and traded for another (reserve) TE, restocking the position (TE Musgrave is on the PUP list). This could ease my concerns about the position.
Schedule Analysis Recap: Last year GB was the only team to play three short week road games, and the pacing of the schedule, especially in games 10-17 was less than ideal. This year, GB hosts Dallas and Houston, and travels to face the LA Rams for their uncommon opponent portion of the schedule. That’s the toughest set in the division. All six prime-time games are outside of the division. The good news: Five of those six matchups are at home. Three of their 1st four games are on the road. The open at Minny and at the NYJ, and on week four they play at Tampa, but with a three-day rest advantage. Games 5-6 are home to Chicago (GB with playoff revenge), and home to Dallas, where Micah Parsons used to play, and where DL Clark and Gary now play. Dallas has the extra rest coming into that game. If that game is emotional (and taxing), then resetting to play at Detroit will be a negative, especially with the Lions off their bye week. Ex-Packer WR Doubs and NE host GB on 11/8 (GB +3 rest). The Packers have a one-day rest advantage hosting Minny on 11/15. The Packers will NOT have a full bye this year. Instead, they play Thanksgiving Eve (Wednesday) at the LA Rams. The good news is that GB has another +3 rest edge when they travel to play New Orleans. On paper, four of their final five games are vs. more than solid teams (Buffalo, Chicago, Houston, Detroit). The NFL has eased the pain, with three of these games coming at home, and a 4th home game coming vs. warm weather team Miami. They face Buffalo (Sunday Night) with the Bills off games vs. KC and rival NE. They host dome team Houston on MNF, and close the season hosting dome team Detroit. The one road game is at Chicago on Christmas Night. All in all, these late games are not bad.
2026 Team Keys: The rush ratio (offense a Q, defense slips?). Fixing the pass D (again). Replacing DL Gary and Clark. Anything related to the often-porous special team unit. The change with the new DC.
Preseason News and Notes: Despite losing two viable WR’s I noted that I liked the top three targets. That was reinforced in August. There are run game concerns and Josh Jacobs is on the Commissioner’s list (essentially suspended). Chris Brooks looked mediocre. MarShawn Lloyd is healthy but ran 10-30. As said above, he’s the one to watch. With Micah Parsons out at least 4 games and two run D guys now on Dallas, GB could be weaker defensively. The run D survived the 3-game preseason test, but the pass D was at 70%. In good news, GB looks improved in special teams. Rookie PK Smack was perfect. The return O/D #’s were unusually stout. Can that transfer to real game play?
2026 Seasonal Preview, Including Key Games, and Things to Look For: The pass game looks ready to go, but unless Lloyd is ready to roll, stronger run defenses could give GB fits. I recommend charting the run D early and often. Once favored, GB is now a short underdog in the opener at Minny. The goal is 2-1 to start, with games 2-3 at the NYJ and home to Atlanta. A split at Tampa and home to Chicago (playoff revenge) could mean 3-2. 3-2 in games 6-10 before the bye is the ceiling. There’s been no schedule traps or outrageous travel, so 6-4 is a worthy goal. As said above, the final set of opponents represent some tough challenges, but 3-2 or 4-1 is very attainable, given the home schedule weather advantages. Like the Lions, I do NOT believe this team is better (roster-wise) from the end of ’25, and remember, LB Parsons will miss the first few games, and may not be at 100% until perhaps after the week eleven bye. I don’t project perfection for both the run and the pass D, so sort out how the new DC is prioritizing their efforts. Finally, did August mean anything for the special team unit? If not, we can all count on the Packers giving away at least one game due to this unit’s past history. KEY GAMES: 10/18 vs. Dallas and 12/25 at Chicago. The Dallas game is emotional. Does that spill over? Based on projected records, that Chicago game could be quite meaningful.
The Final Word, Including Personal Strategy, and Tentative Power Rating: My grid said 10 wins and right now I find that accurate. The NFC North race is wide open. DECISIONS: I like that GB fortified TE. How the special team unit fares will help guide my action, but I suspect I’ll be balanced, with a lean + in December/January. I like my team keys, and will keep an open mind to start ’26. My Power Rating set is 27.
Houston 2026 Preview:
Relevant Stats to Consider: As expected, the run game held the offense back, and made them more one-dimensional. The OL held up better than expected (31 sacks allowed), but there’s room for improvement, as evidenced by their poor 3rd down conversion rate. Defense was another story. They had 47 sacks, allowed 93 yards per game on the ground, and just 17.4 points per game. Their turnover ratio of +17 was 2nd best, behind only Chicago. Houston was lucky that opponents only made 18-27 field goals.
Relevant Player and Coaching News:
Top signings: Two fringe OL, two fringe defensive players, and RB Montgomery.
Top free agents lost: OG Howard, WR Kirk, and two fringe defensive players.
Staff notes: No changes
Notable draft additions: This was a draft of two players, as I rated their class 29th overall. They butchered the TE process. OG Rutledge and DT McDonald are the players who might contribute.
Analysis: Houston’s overall free agency ledger is a wash, save for possibly Montgomery. They can absorb the loss of Kirk and Howard. Not adding much on draft day may keep them a notch behind the top teams in the AFC.
Roster Information, Including Key Players I’m Watching: Montgomery was a stout addition at RB, but the ceiling may still be league average. That’s also true for the OL. Stroud and the WR’s are solid. It’s up to TE Schultz to overachieve, given the TE talent behind him. The secondary is near elite. Rankins has always been a run-stuffer along the DL. The LB’s tend to overachieve. The entire defense is well coached. Players I’m watching include the return of WR Tank Dell and the three new OL starters.
Schedule Analysis Recap: Last year’s opening schedule was tricky, as noted in this spot. Houston started 0-3. Luckily, the defense caught fire, and the schedule also eased up, with five of their last six games played indoors. That won’t be the case in ’26. Houston hosts Buffalo, and travels to face Green Bay and the LA Chargers, teams the rest of the division will not face. While hoping to avoid a repeat of last year’s 0-3 start, the Texans have a tough 1st four games. They host dangerous Buffalo (Bills have revenge), host Cincy, play at Indy, and host Dallas. Per history, some defenses, no matter how good, take time to find their rhythm in a new year. Dallas comes to Houston right after their Brazil trip. Games 5-7 look “easier” on paper. After playing at Tennessee, they head to London to face Jacksonville. Houston does NOT take their bye next, as they host the NYG before their week off. November pacing is fair. Maybe they split road games at the Chargers and Browns, before hosting Indy on Thursday night. That gives them an extra three days before they host dangerous Baltimore. December and January includes two manageable home games vs. Jacksonville and Tennessee, but the four road games are all outdoors, and all in potentially cold weather. Not only that, but games at Pittsburgh, Philly (Thursday) and Green Bay (Monday) are all at night. Houston was 9-0 to end ‘25, but only played one outdoor game in their last seven. This will be a much tougher challenge. I don’t think they can get away with a slow start in ‘26. At least they will not face any team off a full bye, and their rest differential is +8.
2026 Team Keys: Building up win equity early, as the back part of the schedule is a worry. Opening up run holes to balance the offense.
Preseason News and Notes: Houston looked disjointed in August, especially offensively. RB Mongomery sat. The OL was not great. The 1st string defense sat. The defense will be fine but remember, that unit had early issues last year. Injuries hit Houston at WR (Higgins) and LB (E.J. Speed). When will WR Tank Dell be ready to go? He starts ’26 on the PUP list. Remember the draft? I noted how it would be impossible to cut slow, but cerebral LB Aiden Fisher. He had 22 preseason tackles! NOTE: Houston traded for WR Boutte, which I like. 9/1 UPDATE: Projected starting OT Braden Smith has been placed on IR.
2026 Seasonal Preview, Including Key Games, and Things to Look For: I believe the defense will be tested weeks 1-4. Keys to early victories may rest on the OL and RB Montgomery. Since I see regression from their stout turnover ratio, Houston must find ways to improve in other areas, such as the run game and with the TE contingent. The goal is 6-3 before hosting Indy on 11/19. 8-3 is on the table if they beat Indy and take advantage of the rest edge to beat Baltimore. As noted above, here’s where the schedule skews negative. I foresee as low as a 2-4 finish if the weather is bad, and if the offense remains more one-dimensional. That’s still a possible 10-7, with an even higher ceiling, but THIS year, the margin of error is pretty thin. KEY GAMES: 11/16 in London vs. the Jags, and 11/29 hosting the Ravens. The 1st one could give them a divisional edge. The Raven game is all about competing on a much bigger scale.
The Final Word, Including Personal Strategy, and Tentative Power Rating: Houston has a habit of overcoming negative situational factors. In ’24 they fit an 87% situation that had them winning fewer than 10 games. They went 10-7. The same situation existed in ’25 and they got hot and exceeded 9.5 wins. This year they fit a 62.5% negative season win situation based on schedule, turnover regression and draft grades. Will I bite on the under? I passed in ’25 and will pass now, because I value the staff and the defense, coupled with the competition in the weaker AFC South. My April/May win grid said 9-8. I have them about 10-7 for now, pending the final win grid analysis. DECISIONS: The Hebrew word for trouble is tzarah. I love this staff, but with negative factors abounding, I’m thinking more fade mode from the middle of November on out. I’ll lean higher scoring games early on, but I don’t expect greatness down the stretch as we saw in ’25. Watch the OL closely, and let’s see if RB Montgomery can make a difference in the run game. My Power Rating set is 28.5.
Indy 2026 Preview:
Relevant Stats to Consider: In a surprise, Dan Jones was not sack prone. Indy only allowed 29 sacks all season long. RB Taylor was great, WR Pierce stretched the field, and rookie TE Warren bonded with Jones. The defense was stout vs. the run, but not great vs. the pass, although the pass D% improved. By Pythag standards, Indy comes in with a plus figure, understandable with how the season played out.
Relevant Player and Coaching News:
Top signings: LB Davis-Gaither, DB Cam Taylor-Britt. NOTE: WR Keenan Allen signed on 8/18.
Top free agents lost: WR Pittman, OT Braden Smith, DE Paye, LB Franklin, safety Nick Cross.
Staff notes: No changes
Notable draft additions: LB’s Allen and Boettcher strengthen that unit. Depth was added at safety, OL and maybe at edge rusher.
Analysis: Other changes (three in and out along the DL) are a wash, but Indy lost ground after free agency.
Roster Information, Including Key Players I’m Watching: Dan Jones is back, and it will be interesting to see if he can replicate his accuracy, plus pocket presence from a year ago. I wonder how much reliable WR Pittman will be missed. It looks like there’s one less 3rd down, move the chains option, with TE Warren becoming that guy now. I wouldn’t be surprised to see a bit of OL regression. The DL looks steady, and LB has been fortified. Having CB Gardner here from day one could be something special. The rest of the secondary is nothing special in my eyes. If he ever stays healthy, Anthony Gould is a better than average return specialist. Players I’m watching include QB Daniel Jones (is he again going to show improved pocket presence), DE Arden Key, and the impact for a full season of CB Sauce Gardner.
Schedule Analysis Recap: One of the reasons for Indy’s fast ’25 start was that they played so many early games vs. teams with lower Power #’s. That changes in ’26. Games 1-3 are home to Baltimore, at KC and home to Houston. Even if Daniel Jones is ready this may be a 1-2 ceiling. Indy has four road games in the next five weeks, with two sets of back-to-back road games. They face Washington in London, so technically this is not a true road game, but playing the next week at Pittsburgh (and WR Pittman) will be a challenge. The 2nd set is at Minny, followed by their always dreadful trip to Jacksonville. Minny (10/25) and Jacksonville (11/1) will both be off byes. The goal is 2-1 vs. Dallas and Miami, and at Houston (Thursday Night). That gives Dan Jones ten days before they host his former team, the NYG. Indy requested a late bye. That makes it easier to navigate road trips to Philly and Tennessee, the last of their double road trip journeys. 2nd year DC Lou Anaruno came from Cincy. Indy hosts Cincy in late December. Indy closes with games at Cleveland and vs. Jacksonville.
2026 Team Keys: Continued usage of TE Tyler Warren. Keeping RB Jon Taylor healthy. Staying aggressive with pass coverage.
Preseason News and Notes: The offense rested all of its projected starters, and scored 35 preseason points. WR Allen went 1-24, and now has a pending DUI. The two rookie LB’s looked good. The pass D% remained high, but maybe it adjusts when Gardner plays in September. The point defense was a bit on the high side.
2026 Seasonal Preview, Including Key Games, and Things to Look For: Indy could be highly relevant if they start 3-2 vs their toughest part of the schedule. I think 2-3 is the ceiling, and 1-4 is in play. My early watch areas are pass protection, and Sauce Gardener. Let’s adjust if both watch areas are above expectation early on. Indy is unlucky to face a rested Viking’s team, followed by a rested Jacksonville team. Yes, the floor is 2-7, although the talent level says they can reach 4-5. The short week road trip to Houston won’t be easy, but 2-1 should be achieved before their bye week. Achieving 7-7 might still keep them in the playoff picture. A 3-0 finish is possible, but only if the projected stat sheet does not disappoint, 3rd down success won’t be compromised by the loss of Pittman, and Dan Jones plays like he did in ’25. KEY GAME: 9/27 hosting Houston. Indy might lose a few games early, but a win here could give them a 2-0 start in the division by the end of week six. Lose this game, and the Colts will be fighting from behind for most of the season.
The Final Word, Including Personal Strategy, and Tentative Power Rating: Indy’s resolve will be tested in ’26. I have them 3-5 before hosting Dallas, and 6-6 heading into the bye. My initial win grid had them at 8.2, but there’s enough talent to exceed that, with me obviously assuming that CB Gardener will be a huge asset. I also like the Jones/TE Loveland connection. DECISIONS: The range of outcomes is large, from winning the division all the way down to a losing record and a new GM. In some respects, there’s value on +400 to win the South, with their rivals also sporting some weak spots, but for now, I’m looking to be in more of a fade mode early on, but coming back late to see if we can find some line value down the stretch. My Power Rating set is 26.
Jacksonville 2026 Preview:
Relevant Stats to Consider: At some point, QB Lawrence must improve his pass completion %. He’s under 61% the past two seasons. Despite that, the Jags moved to the upper half of the NFL in points and yards. The run game was average. The new DC greatly elevated play on this side of the ball. Most of the #’s were solid. Special team play was solid. Two #’s of note: 1st, the Jags were +13 in their turnover ratio (2nd with 31 takeaways). That’s hard to duplicate. 2nd the sack ratio was 32-41. That’s an issue.
Relevant Player and Coaching News:
Top signings: None.
Top free agents lost: RB Etienne, LB Lloyd, safety Wingard.
Staff notes: No changes
Notable draft additions: To paraphrase, as Bill Tobin once famously said to Mel Kiper, Mel Kiper has no more credentials to do what he’s doing than my neighbor, who is a postman. In this case, insert any non-football fan and she/he could have outdone what the Jacksonville GM did. This was embarrassing. They did okay with one OG pick, and added TE depth (likely not impact). That’s it, from a draft of ten.
Analysis: While quiet, pre-draft there was a partial loss. The draft made up for exactly nothing!
Roster Information, Including Key Players I’m Watching: I like the WR room thanks to the ’25 midseason trade for Meyers. The TE room is deep, but without a true impact player. I’m not sure RB’s Tuten and Rodriquez make this unit better. The OL is likely average, nothing more. The Jags did not get better defensively, subtracting a LB and not filling holes in a couple of other spots. The 2nd year DC could keep them relevant, but they need to ramp up pass pressure, and due to draft miscues, need to stay healthy. The return game looks explosive. One more thing. We didn’t see the true Travis Hunter last year. His emergence (CB and/or WR) could make things better. I like the special team unit. Players I’m watching include the usage and impact of Travs Hunter, and RB’s Bhayshul Tuten and Chris Rodriquez.
2026 Team Keys: QB Lawrence showing pass O% improvement. Flipping the sack ratio. Trying to stay close to that turnover ratio of +13. The results of the full-scale investigation as to what happened in the draft room which caused immediate senility.
Preseason News and Notes: The Jags usually sit most of their starters. I learned basically nothing from their preseason. The secondary looks deeper than 1st thought. The PK and punter are ready.
2026 Seasonal Preview, Including Key Games, and Things to Look For: After a 1-1 start, games 3-6 will tell the early tale. NE, Cincy, Philly and Houston all start ’26 with (slightly) higher Power #’s. I’m obviously most curious about Travis Hunter, but I also recommend watching the run game, QB accuracy, and the sack ratio for bonus insight. The ability (and willingness) to make adjustments is one of the most important facets of handicapping. The bye week is next, and I like the spot hosting rival Indy on 11/1. Now comes the tough spot. The Jags have three straight road games, and in December, three more road games in a four-game stretch. The Jags are hardly deficient on the road, but this pacing can’t help. I see plenty of winnable games, but I can’t predict a long win streak, given the pacing. As I’ve noted, Houston has its own late scheduling issues, and Indy has a slightly incomplete roster, coupled with one of the toughest early schedules. Survival of the fittest (or the least damaged team)? KEY GAMES: 9/27 hosting NE, 10/18 in London vs. Houston, and surviving the road schedule beginning on 11/15. The NE game may be a playoff tiebreaker. Houston is important for divisional slotting.
The Final Word, Including Personal Strategy, and Tentative Power Rating: Let’s talk draft. Ten players were drafted. I considered four not draft worthy. Another two had *ratings, to be drafted only after all numerically rated players from that position were chosen. The rated WR (Cameron) was listed 23rd, near the end of the list. The rated DT was listed 15th, near the end of that list. The Jags had four of the top 100 picks. They drafted a *rated TE at pick 56 (3rd TE chosen) and the 15th rated DT at pick 81. You cannot tell me the Jags had a clue on what to do via the draft. I love what the Jags accomplished in ‘25. I hate how they roster build. They won’t sneak up on anyone this year. No opponent on the ‘26 schedule is a pushover. My initial win grid has them at 8.5. I can get to 9-8, but 10-7 requires Lawrence to improve his accuracy, and Hunter to be special. I’m not ruling this out, but the schedule layout is quite a challenge. DECISIONS: I took a strong position UNDER 9.5 wins. If proven wrong early on I will hopefully adjust. But pigs generally can’t fly. Interestingly enough, several of my “colleagues” are quite bullish on Jacksonville. In this case, I hope they are wrong. My Power Rating set is 26.5.
Kansas City 2026 Preview:
Relevant Stats to Consider: KC fell way back offensively. With WR Rice out half the season, KC had below par rushing and receiving #’s. Steve Spagnuolo’s defense was solid, but it wasn’t enough. Partly, but not fully due to Mahomes’ injury, the sack ratio was 35-47. KC was 6th in points allowed despite another 66% allowed through the air. KC lost its one-score touch in ’25, but that creates some value for ’26.
Relevant Player and Coaching News:
Top signings: RB Walker.
Top free agents lost: WR Hollywood Brown, OT Jawaan Taylor, RB Pacheco, LB Chenal and DB’s McDuffie, Watson and Cook
Staff notes: Andy Reid is top tier, and reunites with Eric Bieniemy as someone who might light a fire under the offense. The rest of the staff, and the GM have been loyal for years, forming one of the best NFL hierarchies.
Notable draft additions: In one of their better drafts (aided by the trade of McDuffie), KC got a potential impact CB, two nice DL additions and at least two other depth pieces.
Analysis: McDuffie of course was by trade, but losing Chenal and three DB starters hurts. Brown and Taylor can be replaced. RB Walker is an excellent addition. The draft class makes this a net gain.
Roster Information, Including Key Players I’m Watching: With Bieniemy back, Mahomes could be looking at a bounce back season. WR’s Worthy and Rice have untapped potential if they can stay healthy and out of trouble. Maybe WR Royals steps up to WR3. I’m surprised KC did not add to the TE room, but if managed well, Kelce could be a red zone factor. OT Simmons was a steal a year ago. RT is the sore spot on an otherwise quality OL. I’ve said forever that Chris Jones needs a running mate to unleash more sacks from the unit. We’ll see if that happens. The front seven seems fine. Delane won’t completely make up for McDuffie as a rookie, so the secondary looks down a notch (Watson gone as well). Players I’m watching include RT Jaylon Moore, DT Khyiris Tonga and new NB Kohou Kader. All three could be weak link starters, and need to be checked out.
Schedule Analysis Recap: KC faced uncommon opponents Baltimore, Detroit and Buffalo a year ago. In 2026, they host Indy, and travel to Cincy and Atlanta. KC will not face any team off a bye, but will have a rest day disadvantage five times. KC should enjoy the pacing and most of the opponents in weeks 3-11. They open hosting Denver on MNF and then host Indy on a short week. Staying at home is nice. A split of these two could mean 3-1 with road games at Miami and the sometimes-pesky Raiders. KC’s bye is early, which is good in the short run, but may mean late fatigue. More on that later. New RB Walker returns to Seattle when KC visits for a Sunday Night game on 10/25. The game at Denver the following week won’t be easy, but playing the Jets, Falcons (road game) and Cardinals will be as soft a three-pack as one can get. As for weeks 12-17, KC faces Josh Allen, Matthew Stafford, Joe Burrow, Drake Maye, Brock Purdy and Justin Herbert, all in a row! The KC pass D% will take a (hidden at first) dive in this time frame. Three of the six (at Buffalo, at the Rams, and vs. NE) are in prime-time. The Buffalo game is on Thanksgiving, giving them a short week of practice. The game at Cincy is their 3rd in a row on the road, but they will have ten days to prep. The NE game is at home, on MNF. They stay at home to face SF, but the 49ers have a four-day rest advantage. After going to LA (Chargers), KC closes by hosting Vegas. How fast can the rebuilt secondary get up to speed?
2026 Team Keys: Flipping the 35-47 sack ratio. Defending the pass with three new DB starters. Avoiding late season fatigue (early bye).
Preseason News and Notes: Justin Fields was accurate, but can’t throw deep, had ZERO TD passes, and could remain sack prone. Rookie RB Emmitt Johnson had a solid camp. I like that KC played many of its starters in the secondary (and gave their 2nd stringers more time than usual). This is the area they need to sort out. They allowed nearly 70% this August. KC must feel the same way as I do about their OL, as they traded for someone who could compete at RT. Always watch the waiver wire after cutdown day for more team-by-team clues. 9/1 ADDITION: RB Pacheco is out for at least four games.
2026 Seasonal Preview, Including Key Games, and Things to Look For: KC’s offense has a high ceiling, and if they deliver on MNF vs. a stout Denver defense that would be impressive. The next tough challenge isn’t until after the early bye, on 10/18 hosting dangerous LA (Chargers). With (at) Seattle and Denver up next, we’ll know plenty about the return of OC Bieniemy and his impact. 5-2 is the goal, amazingly making 8-2 possible. Maybe 7-3 is more realistic, given that we don’t fully know about Mahomes, the RT spot, and the secondary. Speaking about the defense, the six straight games vs. top tier QBs will commence on Turkey Day (11/26). Stats achieved earlier should be decent, as if they are not, KC is going to need to outscore opponents down the stretch. KC has a blend of youth and experience. Be careful of fatigue in certain roster spots with that early bye. KEY GAMES: The opener vs. Denver. I could just point to games 11-16, but given the early schedule, a divisional win right away could give them a cushion prior to that closing stretch.
The Final Word, Including Personal Strategy, and Tentative Power Rating: KC picked a good time to have a decent draft class. Chris Jones needed pass rush help, and the secondary needs a potential shutdown CB. My original assessment via the Spring win grid was 9-8. This could be higher now, but the late November 3-game road stand could be treacherous. Do we automatically assume the sack ratio gets flipped, that the offense rebounds, and that coaching stability can mask pass D issues? These will be the key check points throughout the season. DECISIONS: Given the Pythag says KC will be better, I’m not going to fade them in future’s markets. Still, if I’m not satisfied with the stat sheet, there is an entry point to fade KC before the QB onslaught. At the very least I think there’s room for advocating playing these QBs over their expected yardage, especially if recent data vs. softer QBs yields value. My Power Rating set is 29.
Las Vegas 2026 Preview:
Relevant Stats to Consider: Almost every offensive category was at or near the bottom of the barrel. Vegas scored 14 per game, 245 yards per game, 3.6 rush yards per attempt and 77 yards rushing per game, all last in the NFL. They allowed 64 sacks. The 3rd down conversion ratio was bad. The pass D% was over 68%. Pete Carroll wanted badly to return to the NFL, but this job was not a good fit.
Relevant Player and Coaching News:
Top signings: Center Linderbaum, LB’s Dean and Quay Walker, QB Kirk Cousins, WR Nailor for needed depth.
Top free agents lost: OG Parham, QB Geno Smith,
Staff notes: Klint Kubiak had a masterful Super Bowl game plan and might be the right fit here once the roster takes shape. Rob Leonard was promoted to DC. He has about 13 years of NFL experience but no Wiki page! Joe DeCamillis has recently been in the college ranks but as NFL fans know, he has 30+ years of NFL special team experience. Hopefully he can fix recent special team woes.
Notable draft additions: QB Mendoza, DB Stutes, OG Zuhn are the known guys, but change of pace RB Washington and CB McCoy are potential undervalued players in what could be a real upswing for an organization not known for any productive recent drafts.
Analysis: Center and LB received noticeable upgrades. QB play should improve. RB versatility may have been added. If CB McCoy gets the green light with health, this could be special, although I expect McCoy to have a learning curve after missing 2025.
Roster Information, Including Key Players I’m Watching: QB Cousins likely starts the season. He’s accurate, but not as dynamic as he once was. No excuses for RB Jeanty with Kubiak here. This is either the 31st or 32nd “best” WR unit. Tucker and Bech have niche skill sets, but are definitely not well-rounded. Linderbaum solidifies an improving OL, and Bowers is a top tier TE. LB may be their best defensive area. It would have been a pass rushing disaster without Maxx Crosby. The secondary is clearly a work in progress. Players I’m watching include OG Spencer Burford (the free agent pickup has to step up his game), DT’s Adam Butler and Jonah Laulu (projected no-name starters, which is a worry), and new nickel Taron Johnson, whose task is to elevate a rather mediocre secondary.
2026 Team Keys: Unleashing RB Jeanty. Scheming to reduce the 64 sacks allowed. Using the pass rush to mask secondary flaws.
Preseason News and Notes: RB Jeanty avoided major injury, but as of this writing it is unclear if he plays week one. QB Cousins outplayed rookie Mendoza, who wasn’t bad, but made the expected rookie mistakes. Pocket presence was different as well. Mike Washington is a legit home run threat. The WR unit did not come close to stretching the field. Almost every player on the defense saw August action, which I like for a new team and staff. While it’s a work in progress, the work put in was exceptional. The return offense was substandard, but the return defense was surprisingly good.
2026 Seasonal Preview, Including Key Games, and Things to Look For: Miami looked as bad as a new team could look in August. A Vegas home opener loss would be devastating. Games 3-4 could be interesting. New Orleans has an incomplete roster. KC games have been close. A split of these games keeps them relevant, but the next true win shot may not be until 11/1 at the NYJ. QB Cousins can handle the pass rush better than Mendoza as a rookie can, so the hope is that he helps Vegas play error-free ball and maybe they catch a “better” team looking past them. How’s Maxx Crosby doing? Maybe he creates havoc, and give this team an extra upset shot. 4-5 is the absolute ceiling before they host Seattle. I don’t have Vegas winning at Cleveland, as its their 4th road game in a five-week span, and on top of that, it’s their 12th consecutive game with no rest, or no shot for the new staff to make adjustments. The closing stretch is more favorable. It’s three straight home games, plus a road game at Arizona. Picking up some late wins is not out of the question. KEY GAMES: Let’s instead call it winning at home. I said this a year ago, and it’s true again. It’s time to establish a home identity.
The Final Word, Including Personal Strategy, and Tentative Power Rating: Is it better to go 4-13, or win two or three more games with Cousins? RB Jeanty still has much to prove. The WR unit is awful. I project a high pass D%. The early win grid had them at 5.5 wins. They could be 2-10 heading into the bye, but maybe it’s higher with Cousins and Crosby. 6-10 is currently my ceiling, pending the final win grid analysis. DECISIONS: I went UNDER 6.5 wins. I like the “risk” taken in the draft with McCoy, and I like Washington as a change of pace RB, like the LB additions and like the staff. Still, I dislike the WR unit, and need to see how “dynamic” QB Cousins can still be. There’s certainly a path to hedging or middling the numbers at the time of the bye week, so let’s see what happens. My Power Rating set is 21.
LA Chargers 2026 Preview:
Relevant Stats to Consider: The defense finished top ten in many a category. The pass D% was 60.8 (top five), and sacks continued to hold steady (46 average past three seasons). The run D was average, but that was an improvement. Injuries were everywhere, but especially offensive, with four OL, RB, and TE being hit hard. QB Herbert was already sacked too many times prior to ’25. LA gave up 60 sacks last year. The overall special team ledger regressed, which was a surprise.
Relevant Player and Coaching News:
Top signings: Two OL (net gain from two OL lost), TE Kolar, 3rd down RB Mitchell, DT Tomlinson, TE Njoku (late addition)
Top free agents lost: DE Dashawn Hand
Staff notes: Jim Harbaugh does things his way, but is an elite coach, molding his team to his unique scheme specifications. That’s why others have a tough time evaluating his draft classes. In a departure from form, the new OC is former Dolphin’s Head Coach Mike McDaniel. This could be a home run, but we’ll see. LA suffered a loss when Jesse Minter became Baltimore’s Head Coach. New DC Chris O’Leary is 34 years old, and only worked in the NFL one year, in ‘24 here as the safeties coach. The draft team is one of my favorites.
Notable draft additions: This draft fortified the OL and DL, while adding speedy, but small WR Thompson.
Analysis: The additions aren’t splashy, but it’s a net gain, and fits their overall plan (blocking TE, run-stopper, OL upgrade).
Roster Information, Including Key Players I’m Watching: All eyes will be on the OL, which is essentially getting a makeover with both OT’s back, and free agents and a draft choice slated to start along the interior. The WR unit is young, with upside. TE now goes three deep. RB Hampton has massive upside if he stays healthy. The DL was fortified, and LB “could” be better. The secondary is already stout. We’ll wait and see as far as the return game. Players I’m watching include Keaton Mitchell (once an emerging sleeper before a serious injury), NT Dalvin Tomlinson (possibly exciting news for the run D), and LB Junior Colson, who has missed most of his 1st two NFL seasons with injury.
2026 Team Keys: Early success with McDaniel’s offensive system. Navigating the NFL’s most unfair ’26 schedule.
Preseason News and Notes: Center Biadasz will miss ’26. The OL as a whole is hoping to rebound from an injury-plagued ’25 season. The run game needs Hampton to be healthy all year. As expected, there was no way to assess the starting OL. ’24 draftee Junior Colson had 11 tackles. If he’s finally healthy, LB gets a boost (if his timed speed is still decent). I was surprised he was cut, but he’s back on the practice squad. Maybe the run D is starting to improve, but that’s a September check. LA had but two sacks for the new DC. PK Dicker was average (two missed PATs) and the return offense was soft.
2026 Seasonal Preview, Including Key Games, and Things to Look For: Weeks 1-2 are supposed “layups”. I won’t learn much from these games. Games 3-9 are rough. There’s no doubt that Harbaugh can coach, but this is where we start to learn about chemistry with the new OC, and if there’s a coaching drop with the young DC. There’s clearly enough team talent, but this is all about schedule navigation. Every game will matter in the tough AFC in general, and the AFC West in particular. Maybe they stand about 6-5 before heading to Tampa, which as said above, looks like a tossup game. If they are 9-6, then closing hosting KC and at Denver will be incredibly important for any and all playoff hopes. The floor is high. KEY GAMES: Too many to list. 10/4 at Seattle and 10/11 vs. Denver might be early critical contests.
The Final Word, Including Personal Strategy, and Tentative Power Rating: I was the only draft analyst who gave LA a top three draft grade after the ’24 draft (consensus 16th). Most everyone gave LA a top seven grade last year (4th for me). The ’26 draft was league average. Of my 24 season win plays in ’24-’25, six were over recommendations. Two were with this team. Maybe they achieve 9-6, giving them a shot at 11 wins, but my initial win grid was not quite to 9.5, and I can’t get past the scheduling inequalities. DECISIONS: I went UNDER 10.5 wins. I’ll monitor the performance of both coordinators, looking closely at sacks allowed and the run D. My Power Rating set is 28.
LA Rams 2026 Preview:
Relevant Stats to Consider: The sack ratio was 47-23. QB Stafford led the way to a turnover ratio of +11. LA was 1st in points scored and yards gained. In maybe a random note, the penalty differential was quite positive. Not everything went well. Their secondary was torched late, and the December/January point defense was poor. Kicking was bad, and the entire special team unit was at, or near rock bottom.
Relevant Player and Coaching News:
Top signings: KC DB’s Watson and McDuffie (via trade), plus two of the top three NFL special team players. Myles Garrett was added late.
Top free agents lost: CB Durant. DE Verse was added late in the Myles Garrett trade.
Staff notes: McVay is one of the elite coaches in the past 15-20 years. They lose Mike LaFleur, but McVay calls the plays. Chris Shula returns as DC. He will be rightfully scrutinized based on his results. As expected, LA changed special team coordinators after that unit cost them a #1 seed opportunity. Ray Ventrone has 12 years of special team coaching experience (Cleveland 2023-2025).
Notable draft additions: McDuffie was the big get. QB Simpson is a bet on the future. TE Klare joins that crowded room.
Analysis: The two most obvious areas of concern (DB, special team play) were addressed in solid fashion.
Roster Information, Including Key Players I’m Watching: I’ll say this again, my biggest offensive worry is OL, although Stafford’s experience masks their liabilities. There’s no WR3 to my liking. TE goes five deep, and LA is known for using 12 and 13 personnel. RB is fine. LA is set in the front seven, with Garrett added to an already proficient group. I’m concerned about safety but no longer concerned about CB. There’s newness throughout the special team unit, and that is a good thing. Players I’m watching include whoever LA parades as WR3 (a sore spot), free safety Kam Kitchens, and the two ILB’s Nate Landman and Omar Speights. LATE NEWS: Aaron Donald has returned!
Schedule Analysis Recap: LA’s uncommon opponents are home to GB and Buffalo, and at Tampa. That’s possibly tougher than what Seattle will face. LA has a record (tied) seven prime-time games, with four of those coming in the 1st five weeks! This topsy-turvy schedule has them five times with a rest advantage, but also five times with a rest disadvantage. Three opponents will be off bye weeks. I think both LA and SF will recover from week one in Australia. LA waits until MNF to play game #2, hosting the NYG. I don’t like the week three short week, at Denver on Sunday Night. LA has bitter revenge (two crazy losses) vs. Philly, but they have to stay on the road for that one. That’s too much early season travel. Next, they host Buffalo on MNF, and then have another short week, but at least the opponent is Arizona. The Chargers will be rested for the 11/1 “home” game. There’s still no bye week, as LA travels to Washington and back to Arizona. Kliff Kingsbury was Washington’s offensive coordinator until fired last year. New DB’s McDuffie and Watson were KC starters in ‘25. LA hosts KC in a much-anticipated Thursday Night game. That means a +3 rest advantage before going to SF. The post-bye schedule is brutal, but the pacing is far better than it was with all the early travel and anticipated fatigue. Dallas will be rested before they come to LA. That, and having to travel to Seattle for a Friday Christmas game won’t be an advantage. LA closes at Tampa and home to Seattle. It’s strange not facing the Seahawks until very late in the year. Hopefully these games will be meaningful (no injuries, like with Philly-Washington in ’25).
2026 Team Keys: Overcoming a treacherous travel schedule weeks 1-6. Keeping Stafford upright. Finding a WR3 and safety depth.
Preseason News and Notes: We NEVER expect to learn much in preseason with the Rams. No one played! Ty Simpson looked good for being a one-year college starter, and QB Bennett was decent as well. Rookie TE Klare was 12-55 (very short passes). The OL did not allow a sack. I’m looking for clarity on the condition of LT Alaric Jackson (blood clot issue).
2026 Seasonal Preview, Including Key Games, and Things to Look For: LA opens ’26 with a top five QB, elite WRs, solid RBs and TEs and an experienced OL. The pass rush adds Garrett and now Donald. The secondary adds McDuffie and Watson. Even better (in my eyes), massive, positive changes were made on special teams. Get past weeks 1-6 and this could be amazing. Going to Australia, going to altitude at Denver on a short week, staying on the road to face Philly, and playing Arizona on a short week would test any team. I’d say do NOT press panic if they start 3-3 unless there’s some major injuries. The schedule after that still presents challenges. LA (Chargers) are well-coached and will be rested. The final seven games are vs. four playoff opponents (Seattle twice), plus three teams “expected” to make the ’26 playoffs, KC, Dallas and Tampa. LA did such a great job addressing their most glaring needs that it’s hard to go vs. the steam. Things to look for include WR3 (especially if there’s a health or off-field issue with Puka/Adams), safety play, and maybe the run D. KEY GAMES: 12/13 at SF and perhaps the two Seattle games. They’ll be important games all season long, but these spots may be the most impactful.
The Final Word, Including Personal Strategy, and Tentative Power Rating: I start this section my stating the obvious. LA is all-in for ’26. For handicappers, that means paying attention to what LA does at the trade deadline, as moves made previously was the SOLE reason they won a recent Super Bowl. 10-7 seems like the floor, and 12 or more wins the ceiling. I need to do the final win grid, as the previous one was accomplished before Myles Garrett and Aaron Donald were on the team. DECISIONS: No futures, and maybe a fade or two in the tough early part of the schedule, plus some pre-bye inflated lines, given their public persona. It’s certainly wise however to not be one-sided against a team with the NFL’s top Power #. Again, their only holes may be WR3 and safety impact. My Power Rating set is 32.
Miami 2026 Preview:
Relevant Stats to Consider: Tua was his usual accurate self in 14 games played, but again, threw too many picks. With Tyreek Hill injured, only Waddle and Achane were offensive threats. The team slumped to a very low 3rd down conversion %, and were outgained overall by over 800 yards. The run D faltered again, this time to 4.8-132.5 per game. Readers know how I feel about pass D%. Miami was dead last in this metric, at 72% allowed.
Relevant Player and Coaching News:
Top signings: QB Willis, depth at WR/TE and LB and five DB’s to vie for playing time.
Top free agents lost: WR Waddle (and Tyreek Hill), OG Cole Strange, QB Tua, safety Fitzpatrick, CB Jack Jones.
Staff notes: Jeff Hafley was mediocre at Boston College (maybe not his fault) and decent as GB’s DC. I’m not jumping for joy at this hire, but it shouldn’t be a disaster. I felt Bobby Slowik was ousted too fast as Houston’s OC. Sean Duggan is the new DC. He’s just 32 years old, but has been with Hafley at his latest stops. This is a massive step up in responsibility. Buffalo’s special team coordinator is now here.
Notable draft additions: Even counting the Waddle trade, this was my #2 rated draft class. OG Proctor starts, although I wish they had stayed and drafted safety Downs. The two WR’s will be starters by the end of ’26. The three drafted LB’s will all contribute in various ways. CB Chris Johnson will start. After years where the old GM (rightfully fired mid’25) squandered picks, the ’26 draft was a welcome change.
Analysis: Many losses were via trades. Miami’s in full rebuild, with the draft being something to build upon for the future.
Roster Information, Including Key Players I’m Watching: The OL has experience, and RB Achane has talent. The evolution of QB Willis will be interesting to watch unfold. I don’t expect great WR or TE play in ’26, but Miami just hopes they have found long term pieces. It will also be trial by fire defensively. DE Chop Robinson was drafted in ’24 and needs to emerge in his 3rd season. There will be plenty of mistakes made by the young defense. Young teams typically have issues defending punts and kickoffs. Miami just hopes to be league average in this area. Players I’m watching include all of the TE’s (can anyone emerge), LT Patrick Paul, DE Chop Robinson, and every DB.
2026 Team Keys: Finding a pass rusher to take the pressure of this secondary. Keeping RB Achane healthy. Willis in the pass game.
Preseason News and Notes: WOW! Even the HC noted that ’26 was not about wins and losses, and we are still in August. The point ratio was 22-63. They ran 3.5 per carry and allowed 70.6% through the air. The return game splits were awful, usually the case for teams in a massive rebuilding phase. There’s currently no backup QB for Malik Willis, who will need to be protected better to last 17 games. As I’ve said repeatedly, rookie WR Bell could be WR1 by midseason. Off injury, he played week three, a great sign. The starting secondary got in the most work. Rookie LB Moore is on IR. Three CBs will miss at least part of ’26, although none were officially listed as starters. The team traded projected starting WR Atwell (not a big deal), and surprisingly let projected starting LB Dodson go. This is the youngest NFL roster.
SPECIAL NOTE: Miami was quite active after initially meeting the 53-man roster cut line. I’ve never seen a team make TEN roster moves (signing cut players from other teams) in a 24-hour span after cut day. That’s one way to add roster depth and fill some positional holes, but it also tells us that there were at least ten expendable guys from that 53-man roster. Bottom line: The team lacks proven talent.
2026 Seasonal Preview, Including Key Games, and Things to Look For: Where to start? They open with two on the west coast, hoping to steal a win at Vegas. Catching visiting KC napping won’t be easy, and like most games, requires QB Willis to have a big ground game to pull an upset. If the defense allows pitch and catch again in ’26 then no lead will be safe. Perhaps the offense finds holes vs. the presumed average at best visiting Cincy defense. The Jets are nothing special at home. Maybe they compete if Aaron Glenn is having coaching issues similar to ’25. They also the Jets on 11/29. As of now, that could be the only possible game where they are favored all season long. I’m projecting 55 sacks allowed. That’s as high as I’ve ever predicted preseason. If opponents contain Willis, what can Miami do to score points. This year could be a rough one. KEY GAMES: The opener at Vegas and 10/11 hosting Cincy. Lose these games and having the early bye week to make adjustments won’t be enough to get the Dolphins untracked.
The Final Word, Including Personal Strategy, and Tentative Power Rating: It’s tough enough that Miami has a watered-down roster thanks to traded (and dumped) veterans. Giving them the preseason 2nd toughest schedule makes it that much worse. My April/May win grid suggested 5.5 wins, but based on everything going on since than (more trades, a poor preseason), 3-14 is on the table. RB Achane is the only offensive weapon, and unless recent draft choices emerge, there is no feared defensive player. I’m also projecting special team defense to be an issue, given the roster. DECISIONS: Fading Miami vs. teams that can stop Willis makes sense, as does backing teams who can exploit the soft defense. There won’t be much value in the line, but ’26 right now doesn’t look promising. My Power Rating set is 18.5.
Minnesota 2026 Preview:
Relevant Stats to Consider: Minny finished 7th best in points allowed, a year after finishing 4th best. The run D was above average (again), and despite what I think are holes in the secondary, DC Flores elevated the pass D (62.5%). The turnover ratio did them in, going from +12 to -8. Many offensive areas were bottom five, as QB play fell drastically, and that made elite WR Jefferson a non-factor at times (just 2 TD’s). After allowing 140 sacks from ’22-’24, Minny allowed 59 last year. The 3rd down O was really bad, but the 3rd down D was very good.
Relevant Player and Coaching News:
Top signings: QB Kyler Murray, late addition of WR Jauan Jennings
Top free agents lost: Two DL starters, safety Harrison Smith, WR3 Nailor.
Staff notes: I’ve been bothered for YEARS about the quality of OL play. I strongly believed the talent was there. HARK! After five years, the OL coach is gone. They’ve allowed 200 sacks over four years. Keith Carter should be an upgrade.
Notable draft additions: Minny was a risk taker on draft day, with DL Banks their top choice. Another DL and OL add depth. This wasn’t a high quality or high quantity draft class.
Analysis: Minny now has glaring holes on the DL and in the secondary. Murray is a potentially big get. Jennings was much needed as well.
Roster Information, Including Key Players I’m Watching: As of this writing (8/15), QB Murray is the guy. If so, that helps (in my opinion) unleash WR Jefferson. Most of the other units are near league average, but I like the talent on the underperforming OL, so let’s see if the new OL coach makes a difference. There’s no question that Brian Flores can coach. The defense lacks elite talent, but gets the job done. Years of substandard draft classes have hurt. A repeat of the ’25 defensive stat sheet would be a solid goal. Players I’m watching include interior OL Brandel and Fries, CB James Pierre and free safety Jay Ward. These players are hardly household names but need to step up.
Schedule Analysis Recap: Minny’s uncommon opponents read home to Washington and Indy, and at SF. The Vikings have only seven true road games, with the game “at” SF in Mexico City. Games 7-10 are hard, but they play five of their last seven at home. Minny opens with divisional games vs. GB and at Chicago. The goal is a 2-1 start, which won’t be easy with game #3 at Tampa. Minny has an early (week six) bye. I’d have angled for a bye closer to their 11/22 Mexico City game. Their 1st four games in November are at Detroit, home on MNF to Buffalo (fascinating game), at GB on a short week, and the Mexico City game. The goal is 2-2. On the surface, hosting Atlanta the following week is not bad. I show it as a bit tricky, as Minny will have just played at altitude, while Atlanta will be off their bye week. After visiting NE on a Thursday Night the Viking get a +3 rest advantage when they host rival Detroit on a Sunday Night. Games 15-17 are more than fair scheduling spots. They host Washington, travel to play the Jets, and close by hosting Chicago. The Vikings have won six in a row at Chicago.
2026 Team Keys: Unleashing WR Jefferson. Involving TE Hockenson. Not slipping with pass pressure. Blitzes that do not get home (Flores #1 blitz %) will have quite the negative effect.
Preseason News and Notes: Minny didn’t look great in preseason play. They scored 22 points and allowed 72.5% through the air. Of course, Kyler Murray threw three passes and WR Jefferson sat, as did their top two TE’s. Rookie Caleb Banks saw action. The worry when drafting him so early was his health. DC Flores loves to blitz (#1 in NFL). Can this secondary survive if the blitz fails to come through? Punting wasn’t great. The return defense was a disaster. This now becomes a must watch area. Yes, special team analysis matters.
2026 Seasonal Preview, Including Key Games, and Things to Look For: Years of mediocre or (much) worse drafting have put extra pressure on their HC and DC. As noted above, games 1-3 are challenging. Anything less than 3-2 before the early bye could hurt their playoff chances. 4-4 is realistic if they split games hosting Indy and Buffalo. That won’t be easy, but maybe Murray can open things up offensively, and maybe the pass rush will mask issues in the secondary. The watch areas (OL/OL coach and points allowed via long gainers) are critical. Don’t ignore these areas, and unfortunately for Minny, keep an eye on the return game as well. Can Minny “upset” SF in Mexico City? Can they stay focused the very next week in a bad scheduling situation (Atlanta full bye)? Games like these two are critical for Minny to move up in this tough division. It’s not a tricky set of opponents for games 14-17, but situations are mixed, and could result in 2-2, and not 3-1. KEY GAME: 11/22 vs. SF in Mexico City. There’s likely not one key game, but this one, plus rebounding to stay focused afterwards could set the tone in either direction for the rest of the season.
The Final Word, Including Personal Strategy, and Tentative Power Rating: Is the glass half empty or half full? The ‘26 ceiling is Murray stretching the field, making WR Jefferson relevant again, OL improvement, the rookie DL deliver, and DC Flores masks secondary issues. The floor is inconsistent QB play, a pedestrian run game, an OL that keeps allowing 50+ sacks, a rebuilt DL that is not ready and a secondary that doesn’t have enough talent. I showed 8.5 wins in April/May. For now, that number isn’t any higher. I think the ceiling is contending for the North title, but based on the current roster and what transpired in August, that may be more conjecture than anything else. For me, this is all about the OL, and not slipping up on special team play. DECISIONS: Perhaps jumping the gun, I took a rare OVER play at 7.5 wins once Murray was named the starter. I thought we might see a spike up. I am slightly negative on what I saw in the preseason games, but maybe that doesn’t perfectly correlate for this team and staff. I’ve not fared well ATS with this team of late, yet feel I have some decent situations in my favor for ’26. Watch all the keys closely, as the season can go in either direction. My Power Rating set is 25.
New England 2026 Preview:
Relevant Stats to Consider: Drake Maye had an incredible season, doing so without a star-studded WR or TE, and with an OL that allowed 48 sacks, plus 21 more in the playoffs! NE allowed the 4th fewest points despite a rather mediocre pass defense (9th in yards allowed, but a 66.4% completion figure). The Pats only mustered 35 defensive sacks. Special team play was decent. NE’s 3rd down defense was great.
Relevant Player and Coaching News:
Top signings: WR Doubs, OL Vera-Tucker, DB Byard, WR A.J. Brown (trade)
Top free agents lost: WR Diggs, center Bradbury, LB Chaisson, safety Hawkins.
Staff notes: No changes
Notable draft additions: Days one and two produced OT Lomu, edge rusher Jacas and TE Raridon. See below for how day three went.
Analysis: Three other depth pieces are gone defensively, but Chaisson was the main loss. The draft was strong early, but weak late.
Roster Information, Including Key Players I’m Watching: Offensively, Brown, Doubs and Raridon are upgrades, and the OL is deeper. The secondary seemed to look better late in the season. A Mike Vrabel coached team tends to stop the run, but I’d call the front seven average at best. Ramping up the pass rush would help. Players I’m watching include NT Cory Durden (who?) and new LB Harold Landry.
2026 Team Keys: Improvement along the OL. Playing more press-man defense. Handling the increase in prime-time games.
Preseason News and Notes: No starters played in the preseason. I learned nothing offensively. The defensive reserves saw plenty of quality action. There’s not much to report, although PK Borregales was just 3-6 from 40+ yards. LB Harold Landry ended up on the PUP list.
2026 Seasonal Preview, Including Key Games, and Things to Look For: NE will be laser focused playing at Seattle in the opener. Having time off after that enables them to reset for the rest of the season. Games at Jacksonville and Buffalo (weeks 3-4) make for a tough opening quartile. The early goal is 2-2, enabling (at least) a 5-3 record before they host GB in a good one. Does Vrabel get the coaching edge in Munich vs. the Lions? If so, the AFC East could be a great race. Only three of sixteen teams are taking their bye after an overseas game. NE is one of the three, which I like in this case. The goal is a split at the Chargers (NE rest edge, LA revenge) and home to Buffalo. NE has a rest edge going to KC, but that game won’t be easy. We’ll know if Vrabel has the ability to design a scheme with the extra rest that makes this a tossup. The focus will be tested with short rest, staying on the road, but maybe they luck out with the Jets in disarray. Denver has revenge in game 16, but a) late season revenge from last year is not predictive, and b) NE is the host. KEY GAMES: 11/15 in Munich and 12/6 hosting Buffalo. Even if NE stumbles early in the year, these games enable a reset. If coaching matters, maybe Vrabel gets the edge.
The Final Word, Including Personal Strategy, and Tentative Power Rating: Let’s start with a summary observation. Being in the actual draft room matters. To the outsider, the draft room might seem “easy”, given that each team literally prepares the whole year for this three-day event. Every conceivable scenario is discussed leading up to day one. Maybe not in Jacksonville and in SF, but teams study consensus boards, are aware of team needs (especially for teams right above and below their draft slot) and know draft value. But it’s NOT easy, especially on day three, when the time to make a pick shrinks and decisions must be made not only for potential trades, but also for when players at different positions are weighed against each other for the next selection. Here in NE, Mike Vrabel was OUT of the facility on day three. Whatever decisions were made seemed to be not well thought out. Vrabel needed to be there. Meanwhile, who authorized picks of NOT NFL worthy players at QB and RB, two positions NOT on my need board? No matter what round, all picks matter. After day two, NE took six players. Because I like their 1st three picks, this was not a disaster. But could that be the difference between winning and losing the division? My 1st pass through was 9.25 wins. I now see a path for as much as 11-6, pending my final win grid analysis. That will require better OL play, navigating a schedule where they face an upgrade in QBs as compared to ’25, and a schedule with many prime-time road games. NE should be in the playoff hunt, but statistical progress must be realized. DECISIONS: No decisions were made. I’ll give the benefit of the doubt to this team and HC showing year #2 improvement, so I expect at least balanced action, and a lean with them at times when an underdog, but there are check points that must be met. My Power Rating set is 28.
New Orleans 2026 Preview:
Relevant Stats to Consider: Despite once being 2-10, and finishing with just six wins, the Saints outgained their opponents. The defense did not drop off much if at all without Dennis Allen, with all stats decent, including a solid 45 defensive sacks and stout 3rd down defensive success rate. Not everything was perfect. The four late wins were vs. weaker teams, and yet they still allowed 27 sacks in their final seven games (49 overall). Rookie QB Shough looked good, but he’s the one who got sacked the most. The run game slowed to a crawl, and while WR Olave and TE Johnson were excellent, the rest of the skilled position players did not help. The field goal comparison didn’t help, with the Saints at 71% and their opponents 92%.
Relevant Player and Coaching News:
Top signings: OG David Edwards, RB Etienne, TE Fant, LB Elliss.
Top free agents lost: DT Jonah Williams, LB Demario Davis and DB Aiontae Taylor.
Staff notes: No changes
Notable draft additions: The Saints have (surprisingly) delivered two straight drafts with quantity. WR Tyson has massive upside if he stays healthy. Adding WR Lance was a nice security blanket. Depth was added at OL, DT, TE, safety and in the return game.
Analysis: The offense got some nice help. It’s a slight loss defensively, and that side of the ball needs some help.
Roster Information, Including Key Players I’m Watching: QB Shough can build off his rookie half-season, but needs to keep turnovers and sacks down. The OL has not been a picture of health. When at 100%, they can help New Orleans make offensive strides. The WR unit would suffer if Tyson and/or Olave missed time. DE Bresee will go on season-ending IR. The DL may start ’26 a bit thin. CB Martin Emerson missed ’25. The newcomer could be an asset if healthy. I said this a year ago, but there could be slight slippage on this side of the ball. The return game could get a boost with rookie Barion Brown. Players I’m watching include RB Travis Etienne (I’m not high on Alvin Kamara), DE Vernon Broughton (or whomever replaces injured DE Bryan Bresee), and ’25 draftess in the secondary, Quincy Riley and Jonas Sanker.
Schedule Analysis Recap: Kellen Moore is a young Head Coach. Not only was there no early bye in ‘25, but the Saints did not have a mini-bye. The Saints get a break in ’26. Their three uncommon opponents are hosting Arizona and Las Vegas, and traveling to the NYG. I have the Saints with the 2nd easiest schedule, but they will have a -7 rest differential. Weeks 1-2 are tough, at Detroit and at Baltimore. Stealing an early win would be impressive. The Saints stay home weeks 3-5, facing Vegas, Atlanta (MNF) and Minny, who’s had success at the Superdome. Both Pittsburgh and New Orleans will be on the road prior to their meeting in Paris. Kellen Moore was the coordinator for Mike McCarthy from ‘20-‘22. I like the bye week coming directly after Paris. This is a young team and staff, and they need the week off. That sets them up to host Cleveland, who will be playing their 3rd straight road game. Their game vs. Carolina on 11/15 will be only their 2nd inside the division. The Saints are 6-1 the last seven as a host. The toughest scheduling sequence is next, with four of the next five games on the road. It’s an all-Sunday rest of the schedule (good for pacing), but playing at Chicago and Cincy likely means a split at best. Hosting GB won’t be easy (Packers +3 rest advantage), and then come road games at Carolina and Tampa (Saints have played well at Tampa). These two divisional games are part of their last set of games, which feature four divisional games and a host of lowly Arizona. The Saints lost at home to Tampa a year ago, 26-3. If QB Shough is the answer, New Orleans could be in position to make divisional noise down the stretch.
2026 Team Keys: Fielding a viable, healthy WR unit. Reducing QB sacks/hits. Another year with no drop-off defensively.
Preseason News and Notes: I was (unpleasantly) surprised that no starters played. It’s not a young team but still, the young coaching staff could have benefited by seeing the starters in at least some live game action. I didn’t learn anything from the reserves. Return specialist Brown had a shaky August. Can that be corrected? The injury news is disconcerting. DE Bresee is out all of ’26, ad is swing OL Radunz. RB Kamara and CB Riley will miss some time. Finally, rookie WR Tyson can’t solve his hamstring issues, and will miss quite a bit of time.
2026 Seasonal Preview, Including Key Games, and Things to Look For: Home games 3-5 are vs. Vegas, Atlanta and Minny. 2-1 is not a guarantee, especially with WR, OL and CB health compromised. The bye comes at a good time, but in my opinion, 3-4 is the ceiling early on. The goal is a split of road games at Chicago and Cincy, which will depend on how Shough handles year #2, coupled with the return of WR Tyson, along with some semblance of a pass rush. As noted above, games 13-17 included four contests vs. the NFC South, plus a host of Arizona. Last year the Saints thrived down the stretch. Can that happen again? KEY GAMES: The early three-game homestand. 2-1, including a win hosting Atlanta (50% host history) has to be the bare minimum.
The Final Word, Including Personal Strategy, and Tentative Power Rating: I still feel this team has roster holes, but there’s been improvement. With RB Kamara winding down, one key is hoping Etienne delivers. The OL allowed 49 sacks a year ago. There’s tape on QB Shough, but there’s also the opportunity for him to learn from his rookie season. I have projected defensive sacks trending down, so we’ll see if that is indeed the case. Two more notes. 1st, veteran CB Emerson needs to assist a thin secondary. 2nd, rookie return specialist Brown must prove his worth. I currently have the Saints at 6-9 prior to games at Atlanta and home to Tampa. That means I’m not yet all in on this team. My early win grid had this at nearly 8-9, but there’s been a few key injuries since that analysis. For now, let’s find some early fades. DECISIONS: No future’s for me. I’ve isolated a few games on their team sheet that are play on, and potential play against spots. I’m worried about a slow start pre-bye. Stealing a win or two will make the closing stretch relevant. My Power Rating set is 22.5.
NYG 2026 Preview:
Relevant Stats to Consider: Jaxton Dart was mostly impressive as a rookie, but did take 35 sacks in just 216 pass attempts. The run D was dead last, at 5.3-allowed per carry, and 31st in yards allowed per game. This has been a four-year problem. Nothing else stood out, but the NYG do enter ’26 with a positive Pythag figure.
Relevant Player and Coaching News:
Top signings: WR Mooney, TE Likely, OG Faalele, LB Edmunds, two depth pieces for the secondary.
Top free agents lost: WR Wan’Dale Robinson, LB Okereke, CB Flott.
Staff notes: Attention to detail will improve under John Harbaugh, who is also known for getting his team ready in August (great preseason record, he cares). The NYG typically start 1-5, so this is a good thing. Matt Nagy is the new OC. I was disappointed Dennard Wilson had a tough time as Tennessee’s DC. I like his aggressive style. We’ll see if it was due to a lack of talent, or if his schemes are not good enough.
Notable draft additions: This was another small draft, but the talent added was solid. LB Reese and OT/OG Mauioga will start, and CB Hood should see plenty of action, WR Fields will be in the rotation, and two others add depth along each line.
Analysis: TE Likely gives Harbaugh his coveted two TE set. The other free agency moves are close to a wash, but the draft was a success.
Roster Information, Including Key Players I’m Watching: If injuries heal, RB Skattebo and WR Nabors will have their respective units performing at least league average. TE has been fortified. Jameis Winston can help, as QB Dart’s style of play makes it difficult to project him lasting aa 17 games. The OL remains a weak link, but maybe the new staff will help. No doubt there’s talent along the front seven, but the roster doesn’t readily lend itself to improvement vs. the run. Like the rest of the D, parts of the secondary are set. I think they’ll be some overall improvement. The return game has to be monitored. Players I’m watching include WR Mooney, play from both OTs, the kicking game, and the entire special team unit.
Schedule Analysis Recap: The NYG host New Orleans and Cleveland and play at Detroit for their three uncommon opponent games. Slow starts have been the norm for this team. Can John Harbaugh, known for fast starts, change that narrative? Games 1-2 are home to Dallas on Sunday Night and at the Rams on MNF. The NYG have a win % of .176 on MNF and are just 3-19 in their last 22 prime-time games. 1-1 is the goal. It’s a reunion of sorts when Brian Daball and Tennessee visit the NYG and their new, ex-Titan coaches. This is right in the middle of the “soft” part of the schedule, which includes going to Washington (returning from London), home to New Orleans, and at Houston, also returning from London. Washington and Houston are solid teams, but can’t they go 1-1 under this scenario? The schedule heats up after the week eight bye. Winning inside the division will be critical. Games 8-9 are at Philly (NYG rest edge) and home to Washington on Thursday Night. That gives the NYG another rest advantage (+3) when they host Jacksonville. They end November at Indy, the home of ex-NYG QB Daniel Jones. That game, plus the next two vs. SF and at Seattle will be tough tests. The NYG only back-to-back road games are late in the year, at Detroit on MNF and at Dallas with less time to prep. The NYG have not won at Dallas since ‘16. The finale is hosting Philly. I like the schedule pacing and hidden advantages through week 11, but the last six games are difficult and the last three games change the rest differential narrative.
2026 Team Keys: Winning at home and in September. Stopping the run. Finding QB Dart’s ceiling.
Preseason News and Notes: What a turnaround. John Harbaugh is trying to instill a winning culture, and so far, so good. The NYG had a 59-22 point ratio, a 3.6 run D and a 53% pass D. August stats don’t really carryover that clearly, but the mindset is great. The RB room is legit and deep. The OL won’t be perfect, but seems to be better. I like the rotation used defensively, giving plenty of guys a chance to be studied by the staff. All facets of the special team unit held up nicely, something Harbaugh cares about. The biggest injury watch area is WR, where Calvin Austin is now on IR and Malik Nabors is not yet a sure thing for week one.
2026 Seasonal Preview, Including Key Games, and Things to Look For: Games 1, 3, and 4 are home to Dallas, Tennessee and Arizona. Is this the year the NYG finally stack some wins up early, instead of their usual 1-4 or 1-5 start? Games 5-6 are at Washington and home to the Saints. 4-2 is on the table. The 11/1 bye could enable Harbaugh to make adjustments in time to keep the team relevant. The NYG were 1-8 at home in ’25, and their recent divisional record is 5-18-1. Can they go 2-1 hosting Washington, Jacksonville and SF? What’s QB Dart’s ceiling? That’s something we need to determine. What will pass protection look like under Harbaugh. Chart this out as well. I’m cautiously optimistic as to pass pressure, but not as confident about pass coverage. The NYG might only be favored once in games 12-17. Games 15-16 are at Detroit on MNF (NYG historically poor on MNF) and with a short week, at Dallas. That’s probably enough to keep them out of the playoffs, even if they will be as improved as I think they will be. KEY GAMES: The opener hosting Dallas, plus games 1-6 in general. Winning breeds confidence. Can the NYG finally get out of the gate with some wins?
The Final Word, Including Personal Strategy, and Tentative Power Rating: The win grid had them at 6.8 wins in April/May. With the entire division improved, this seems accurate, but again, a fast start could build confidence. Not withstanding the negative situation weeks 15/16, the NYG have a positive Pythag figure, and a schedule advantage 10/11 (at Washington) and 11/22 (Jacksonville). The trick is to play better at home, and in prime time. DECISIONS: I may be in their corner early, but the back end of the schedule presents challenges. Coaching is better. The roster is better. The two TE alignment could be good for the pass and the run game. Maybe the ceiling will not be quite as high because this division is contentious, but I expect the NYG to be much more competitive. Now, one question remains: How good is Jaxton Dart? I like him, but think he has a lower ceiling as compared to QBs around his age and experience. My Power Rating set is 23.5.
NYJ 2026 Preview:
Relevant Stats to Consider: Hide the women and children. The Jets had the following negative stats: 26-60 sack ratio. -1,560 total yards, and a full 100 fewer 1st downs offense to defense. ZERO defensive interceptions, leading to a turnover ratio of -19. 31st point defense, and last in pass offense. They had no WR’s of note once Wilson went down. The good news: Special team play continues to be top tier.
Relevant Player and Coaching News:
Top signings: QB Geno Smith, DL Joseph Ossai, LB Demario Davis, and DB’s Nahshon Wright and Minkah Fitzpatrick. They also added DL Sweat in a player for player trade, losing, Jermaine Johnson.
Top free agents lost: Two starting OL, two starting DL, and LB Quincy Williams.
Staff notes: Aaron Glenn looked and sounded lost all season. He had no clue how to run the offense. The new OC is Frank Reich. I’m all for a change, but why Reich? Brian Duker is the new DC. Just 36 years old, this is his 6th team. I feel he’s untested, but Glenn has defensive experience. The Jets consistently play well on special teams and retain their coordinator.
Notable draft additions: Edge rusher Bailey, TE Sadiq and WR Cooper were all 1st round picks. CB Ponds is small but talented.
Analysis: The OL is down a bit, while Geno Smith is an upgrade over Justin Fields when not throwing interceptions. The secondary is better, and the front seven on defense added Bailey and a couple of veterans to help in this transition phase.
Roster Information, Including Key Players I’m Watching: Geno Smith creates both good and bad plays. He has to be looked at as just a bridge QB. WR is deeper, but probably the goal is league average for ’26. TE was fortified. The OL “should” be better, but by how much? I also rate the front seven defensively as improved, but despite the free agent pickups, I have concerns for the secondary. The defense would benefit from a more proficient offense. Players I’m watching include WR Adonai Mitchell and CB Nahshon Wright
2026 Team Keys: OC Frank Reich getting creative. Finding a pass rush. Keeping Geno Smith out of trouble (protection, bad throws).
Preseason News and Notes: Geno Smith was 7-7, while WR Wilson looked good coming off injury and rookie WR Cooper was stout. The OL wasn’t great, but part of that was likely the QB’s they blocked for. This was another team that gave its defensive unit meaningful snaps. It’s early, but things look manageable on this side of the ball. RB Breece Hall is likely to play week one, while rookie TE Sadiq is 50% to play.
2026 Seasonal Preview, Including Key Games, and Things to Look For: Will games 1-2 set the tone? Going to Tennessee isn’t daunting, but new Titan’s coach Saleh has revenge. Winning at home vs. GB isn’t out of the question with that team’s injuries and uncertain rush attack. I think starting 0-2 would be a morale deflater. The Jets are 64-100 ATS as a home favorite. By week eight they will have hosted Cleveland, Miami and Vegas, all winnable games. Can this team be trusted? On 11/15 they catch Buffalo in an unfavorable scheduling situation. Can this staff turn that into a positive? Late games also come with scheduling perks. Going to Arizona isn’t bad. They catch visiting NE with the Pats in a rough scheduling spot. There’s conflicting data when they host dome team Minny on 1/3. Basically, don’t blame the schedule if the Jets fail, and maybe this is a better ’26 than many of us 1st thought it would be. KEY GAMES: The first two. 0-2 could turn into 0-4 quickly. If all goes well, the Jets will have a 4-4 floor before going to KC on 11/8.
The Final Word, Including Personal Strategy, and Tentative Power Rating: When I did the win grid in April/May I came up with 5-12. That now seems low. In the NFL Composite draft rankings, five of the six teams who started out with multiple 1st round draft picks received top seven grades. One of those teams was the NYJ. Offensively, Geno Smith is so turnover-prone that I don’t have a high ceiling on him. WR Cooper is immediately WR2 on this team. TE Sadiq joins ‘25 draft choice Mason Taylor in yet another example of a team with two-TE aspirations. Put your best guys on the field, and here, it’s two WR’s and two TE’s. I wanted RG added to the mix. I do not think rookie Cooper is the answer. Defensively, trades of Q Williams and Gardner weakened the group. Bailey is an immediate answer. Smaller CB Pounds is listed as a starter, validating the need for help in the secondary. These two rookies, plus a whopping six free agents, complete the defensive makeover. The defense will miss the (five) players who left, but what the Jets did to replace them was better than expected. I can’t emphasize enough how important games 1-2 are. This team may still top out at 6-11, but there’s potential for more thanks to a favorable schedule. What has Glenn learned from ‘25? If all else fails, the Jets have another trio of 1st round draft picks in ‘27. Patience.
DECISIONS: With a blend of youth and experience, the Jets look better than I 1st thought. I leaned fade in the Spring, but will do a full pass now. Even with Geno, the -19 turnover ratio will improve. Aaron Glenn has no excuses. My Power Rating set is 19.5.
Philly 2026 Preview:
Relevant Stats to Consider: In ’24, Philly ran 199 per game, and 5.4-204.5 in the playoffs! They were middle of the pack last year, at 117 per game. RB Barkley could not come close to ’24 figures, and QB Hurts had an impressive TD-int ratio but was not as dynamic, especially running the ball. The defense was still above average, and #1 at 56.8% allowed, a spectacular figure in today’s modern football era. PK Elliott had an off year, and could be on the hot seat.
Relevant Player and Coaching News:
Top signings: WR’s Elijah Moore and Hollywood Brown and recently Wicks from Green Bay (trade), two decent DB’s.
Top free agents lost: DE/LB Phillips, LB Dean and safety Blankenship. WR Brown was traded after June 1st.
Staff notes: Beleaguered OC Kevin Patullo lasted one season. Sean Mannion (from THE OSU) is the new OC. This will be interesting, as in ‘23 he was still a player! He was GB’s QB coach last year. DC Fangio is good. Nick Siriani receives a lot of flak but I think he’s fine.
Notable draft additions: WR Lemon and TE Stowers add much needed versatility to the offense. Two OL and a safety add depth. Philly traded for LB Greenard, who is proven and counts in the draft class.
Analysis: Phillips was only here for a few games. I’d call the whole offseason a wash counting the AJ Brown exodus.
Roster Information, Including Key Players I’m Watching: I’m used to Philly being the least diversified offense in the NFL, involving only two WRs, a TE when healthy, and RB Barkley. WR usage and even TE usage should be spread out now. The OL remains mostly intact. It’s an older unit that is still more than solid. Opposing teams may have finally (?) understood that you can try to run on Philly. No unit is weak, but the run D could be just league average. The secondary is top notch. I have at least a small concern related to special team play. Players I’m watching include the usage of new TE Eli Stowers, MLB Jihaad Campbell, and the performance of PK Jake Elliott.
Schedule Analysis Recap: The Eagles host Carolina and Pittsburgh and travel to Chicago in games vs. uncommon opponents. That’s not bad. What is bad is their -15 rest differential and facing four teams off bye weeks. In good news, Philly has two nice stretches of home games. The Eagles have won their last five openers. They host Washington game #1. They are 0-3 lifetime at Tennessee, but will be favored. Game #3 is also on the road, on MNF at Chicago. QB Hurts is 5-6 on MNF. This potentially great game may impact seeding. Game #4 is home to the Rams. LA has revenge, but the Eagles are 11-1 in their last 12 vs. LA. Philly is an experienced team. They can win in London vs. Jacksonville if team chemistry has improved. There’s no bye after that (team choice). They host Carolina, the 1st of four teams to play Philly after a week off. The train ride to Washington comes after Philly hosts Dallas on MNF. That’s a short week, and Washington will be off their bye. Philly flew to Chicago on 9/28, and London on 10/11. Their next plane ride is 11/29 after hosting Pittsburgh in a favorable scheduling and historical situation for the Eagles. Later, they go to Arizona after playing on Thanksgiving. Teams with extra rest avoid any “trap game” scenarios. Games 13-15 are at home. They host the rested Colts, host Seattle on a Saturday (1-9 vs. Seattle lately, last win ‘08) and host Houston on Christmas Eve. These last two games are on short weeks for both teams, so hosting is a perk. That’s three games in just eleven days. Games 16-17 are at SF (Sunday Night, Philly +3 rest advantage) and at the NYG. Philly has a massive rest differential disadvantage as compared to Washington and Dallas, but the layout isn’t too bad, and they host some of the short week games.
2026 Team Keys: Diversifying the offense (more guys involved). Hoping DT Jalen Carter shows up vs. the run. Making field goals.
Preseason News and Notes: Philly doesn’t need to go all out in August, but this preseason wasn’t their finest. The offense rested most starters, so no real issue there. Rookie TE Stowers disappointed in camp, while rookie WR Lane saw minimal action. Only one projected starter played defensively. The #’s were poor, although rookie LB Trotter was solid. The return game offense looks quite unsettled. On the injury front, LB Greenard has a pec issue and his status for week one is unknown.
2026 Seasonal Preview, Including Key Games, and Things to Look For: Philly “expects” to start 2-0, and could start 4-1 if they go 2-1 at Chicago on MNF (Eagles with situational plusses), vs. the Rams (great matchup) and in London vs. the Jags. The record could be as high as 8-1 despite playing some tough opponents. Why? I have the Eagles with some historical and/or situational advantages when they host Dallas and travel to Washington. I wrote above about Philly’s poor rest differential. As I write this section, things look different. The bye is nicely placed. There’s a three-game December homestand. There’s extra time before traveling to Arizona (no letdown) and SF on 1/3. Despite divisional improvement, Philly might weather the storm, especially if teams forget to run the ball on them, and if Hurts can elevate his game just a little bit. Watch the kicking game close however, in case the close games are impacted by poor field goal performance. KEY GAMES: Games 3-5 (at Chicago, LA Rams, the Jags in London). An overall 4-1 start could be enough to ward off divisional rivals.
The Final Word, Including Personal Strategy, and Tentative Power Rating: My 1st win schedule grid analysis had them at 10.6 wins. After writing this, 11-6 is clearly on the table. We’ll see what the final win grid says. DECISIONS: I have an earlier ticket under 10.5 wins. At the time of entry, I felt Philly would face late season schedule fatigue, and also said that this was more of a ticket acknowledging how much better their NFC East rivals now looked. While both statements may still be true, there are enough favorable scheduling situations to make me worried about the ticket. I’ll lock the ticket away as usual, and for the season, strive for balanced action, hoping to replicate my 11-6 ATS record on their games these past two seasons. My Power Rating set is 28.
Pittsburgh 2026 Preview:
Relevant Stats to Consider: On the surface, very little happened that wasn’t around league average. In a deeper dive, Pitt had a -51 1st down ratio and close to a 900 total yardage deficit. The offense lacked a WR2 option, and Aaron Rodgers often took the safe option in the pass game. We usually see a positive turnover ratio with Aaron, but +12 might be hard to duplicate. The sack ratio was stout at 48-31. The return game was a bit less than impressive.
Relevant Player and Coaching News:
Top signings: RB Dowdle, WR Pittman, DL Joseph-Day, DB’s Brisker and Dean.
Top free agents lost: OG Seumalo, safety Kyle Dugger, RB Gainwell
Staff notes: People mock Mike Tomlin for his winning record, but no recent playoff wins, but the stuck in purgatory Steelers likely won two games extra per year thanks to his expertise. I’ll miss him, as while others I respect couldn’t figure them out, long term consistency in approach led to my 9-1 ATS record last year, and 30-8 recently. Mike McCarthy was hired. He’s been a good offensive-minded coach. Veteran DC Patrick Graham takes over defensively. Veteran Danny Crossman (Miami) is the new special team coordinator.
Notable draft additions: The 1st round OT and the 3rd round OG are expected to sit as rookies. I like WR Bernard, who is more sure-handed than what some current Steeler WR’s have shown. CB Everette adds depth, while return specialist Wetjen has real potential.
Analysis: The OL additions need time, but WR, DT, the secondary and special teams all received at least a partial upgrade. This is not bad.
Roster Information, Including Key Players I’m Watching: Pittman, Bernard, and (Pitt hopes) 3rd year WR Wilson make this unit deeper and better. The continued evolution of the OL is the main watch. With McCarthy here, I expect more fireworks offensively. There are obvious age issues defensively, but also obvious talent. Free agency added a trio of starters. They must stay healthy on this side of the ball. I think we’ll see return game improvement offensively. Players I’m watching include the right side of the OL (Anderson and Cook), ILB Payton Wilson, what’s left in the tank for DB Jalen Ramsey, and the rookie return specialist, Kaden Wetjen.
2026 Team Keys: The OL in pass protection. The health of veteran defensive players Heyward, Watt and Highsmith. Aaron’s “happiness”.
Preseason News and Notes: Pittsburgh allowed 10 preseason sacks, yet still traded OT Broderick Jones away. The starters better stay healthy. Rookie WR Bernard looks poised and ready. Will Aaron trust a rookie? Veterans abound defensively, but I still worry a bit about drop-off, and will monitor the August 69.7% pass D. Return specialist Wetjen was one of the three stars entering the NFL. He delivered in August. CB Porter is OFF the PUP list, but he’s not happy (contract). This needs to be monitored.
2026 Seasonal Preview, Including Key Games, and Things to Look For: How old is too old to be proficient at QB? Tom Brady was great. Payton Manning was average. Aaron Rodgers has some weapons to work with, but this could go in either direction. If they win hosting Atlanta week one, 4-1 is on the table if they win games hosting Cincy (Cincy 2nd of back-to-back road games), at Cleveland (poor recent history) and home to an Indy team who just played in London. After two decades of Mike Tomlin, the stat sheet and tendencies will likely change and must be monitored. No NFL team has played in Paris before. Pitt is on a 12-0 run hosting Cleveland, and that game comes right after Paris. Conversely, the Steelers catch road team Cincy off playing in Madrid. I expect a solid record at this point. If that’s not the case, then this figures to be a rough year, with games 10-14 presenting plenty of challenges. How’s the road record? Pitt closes at Tennessee and at Baltimore. Will these games be meaningful? KEY GAMES: 10/11 vs. Indy and 10/18 at Tampa. Neither team has a suffocating defense, and we need to see Rodgers be productive in both games. We’ll learn plenty about the defense as well in these contests.
The Final Word, Including Personal Strategy, and Tentative Power Rating: My win grid # was 8.25 in April/May, but the roster is good enough to get to 9-8 or even more. WR’s Pittman and Bernard bring what Rodgers likes most, sure hands. I’m not satisfied at LG. TE will be serviceable, but not special. Defensively, the only two changes to the starting lineup are Brisker and Dean in the secondary. That’s it for a good unit, but one heavily reliant on veterans Watt, Highsmith, Heyward and others to stay healthy. Wetjen upgrades the return unit. I think there’s an opportunity for increased offensive creativity, but I worry about some defensive slippage. The other worry is obvious. This is QB Farve, part two in terms of drama. DECISIONS: I lean under, with Tomlin gone and age defensively. I DO think we’ll have higher scoring games with the coaching change, especially as fatigue/injuries hit. I’ll miss my success with Mike Tomlin. My Power Rating set is 25.
San Francisco 2026 Preview:
Relevant Stats to Consider: Positive: 50% 3rd down conversion rate (elite). The usual high completion % with their great offensive scheme. 27 sacks allowed. For a team that went 12-5, the long list of negatives is as follows: 3.8 per carry run offense (30th). Just 20 defensive sacks (last by margin, no player with more than 4). Their leading returning WR had 276 receiving yards. The usual below par pass D% (68.2%). SF was lucky that opposing kickers went just 22-33. The return unit will be new in ’26.
Relevant Player and Coaching News:
Top signings: WR’s Evans and Kirk, DE Odighizuwa (trade), LB Greenlaw, CB Jack Jones. WR Samual was a late add, returning to the 49ers.
Top free agents lost: WR Bourne, OG Burford, DT Elliott. WR Jennings left after the draft (Minnesota).
Staff notes: With Robert Salah off to Tennessee, Raheem Morris is the new DC. He had some moments in that role years ago, but oversaw a defense (as Head Coach) in Atlanta that often underachieved. I like their special team coordinator even with the below par ‘25 defense.
Notable draft additions: Bluntly, GM Lynch butchered the draft. WR Stribling can play, but carried a 3rd round grade. Edge rusher Height has some talent, but pick #70 is listed as a 3rd stringer. This was a disaster (31st rated draft class, with universal consensus).
Analysis: The losses are minimal, so adding Evans and the two defensive players represents a net gain. Unfortunately, the draft class was so bad that no other major talent was added, although Stribling will likely contribute relatively early on.
Roster Information, Including Key Players I’m Watching: Instead of a liability, the group of Evans, Samuel, Kirk and maybe Stribling has the WR unit in an upgrade. The offense should be fine, but LT Trent Williams needs to stay healthy. The five early defensive draftees from ’25 have to contribute to elevate this side of the ball. LB’s Greenlaw (returning) and Warner (off injury) are older, but very intuitive. SF is deeper in the secondary but that’s still a weak link. Who returns kicks and punts in ’26? Players I’m watching include the return of Deebo Samuel, ’25 defensive draftee Mykel Williams, and CB Renardo Green, who needs to step up his game.
Schedule Analysis Recap: SF had a 4th place schedule in ‘25, and that contributed to their 12-5 record despite their usual dreadful injury luck. The ‘26 set of uncommon opponents isn’t daunting either, as they host Minny and Miami, and travel to Atlanta. SF stays home weeks 2-4 hosting Miami, Arizona and Denver, which isn’t bad. They stay on the west coast, traveling to Seattle, then come back home to host Washington on MNF. They leave the west coast just once before 11/15 when they go to Atlanta on a short week. SF has two out of the country games. After playing AT Dallas, they go to Mexico City to host Minny. History says they may head to Colorado Springs to acclimate to the altitude after playing Dallas. Unfortunately, after Mexico City they host rested Seattle. What’s the morale and focus like after that game as they head east to face the NYG? In game #2 vs. “hated” rival LA, the Rams have extra rest. Games 14-16 are tough, (Chargers, Thursday Night, likely with some crowd support, at KC with a +4 rest edge, and home to Philly). Philly has the rest advantage and perhaps the playoff revenge angle, in a standalone Night game. SF closes at Arizona.
2026 Team Keys: RB McCaffrey upping his yards-per-carry. TE Kittle’s health. Finding a pass rush. Overachieving vs. the pass.
Preseason News and Notes: SF looked far better than I expected in August. Rookie WR Stribling had his round one critics (including me) but had a great August. The pass D% was surprising, at 51.6%. That would be a pleasant, and unanticipated surprise if it carried over. The special team unit was fine. With WR Pearsall on IR, Deebo Samuel is back. There are mixed signals for TE Kittle. I would rest him (no long trip), but I understand his value. There are other injuries, including DE Mykel Williams, who is set to miss week #1.
2026 Seasonal Preview, Including Key Games, and Things to Look For: SF is arriving early to Australia, while the Rams are not. I have no idea what this means, but SF looks to steal an early win. Both teams rested their starters in August. Other early “tossup” games are hosting Denver and yes, at Atlanta, where SF will be off a short week, having played on MNF. Despite my concerns with DC Morris and the secondary, I do expect clear improvement from the interception ratio of -10 a year ago. That helps secure “free” points. Beginning with the 11/15 trip to Dallas, the schedule skews dangerous. Hosting a rested Seattle team off playing (Minny) in Mexico City is not ideal. The Rams have extra rest before that SF home game, and series history is mixed. The Chargers are dangerous. SF has the rest edge, but playing at KC is never easy. Philly will be motivated and rested as well for that SF home game. Any Shanahan offense will be fine, but my watch points are DC Morris and special team play. KEY GAMES: 10/25 at Atlanta and 11/29 hosting Seattle. I’m not sure three NFC West teams make the playoffs this year. These two games are tricky due to the travel SF has right before each contest.
The Final Word, Including Personal Strategy, and Tentative Power Rating: SF remains a playoff worthy team. They would like to stay healthy for once, but the roster has a solid QB, future hall-of-famers at TE, RB, LT and LB, and enough roster depth to make their floor a high one. Still, SF has a negative Pythag figure, this despite last year’s 4th place schedule. SF graded out at 9.5 wins in April/May, and I won’t rule out 10-7 (11-6 ceiling). I like the early schedule, but see some landmines starting in mid-November. We’ll see how fast TE Kittle can return from injury, and if RB McCaffrey can regain past form. DECISIONS: I write this on 9/1, and am still debating on playing UNDER 10.5 wins. At present, I may wait, and jump in sometime in October if I see injury and/or performance concerns. Early wins vs. some mediocre teams could give the handicapper a better price. I strongly believe subpar drafting has stunted their growth. SF cares little about what I think, and will point to another 10/11-win season as proof they know what they’re doing. Sadly, I’ll laugh, and again point to what could have been. Their draft was a functional disaster and must be treated as such, regardless of the record. My Power Rating set is 28.
Seattle 2026 Preview:
Relevant Stats to Consider: Seattle had stats that made them look like a #1 team. They were 3rd in points scored, 1st in points allowed, 1st in allowing just 3.7 yards per carry, had an elite 32% 3rd down defense, a 47-27 sack ratio, and a strong return offense. RB Walker was at his best in the playoffs, but his presence overall made run-pass balance possible. The one negative was QB Darnold’s 14 interceptions, although he was spotless in the playoffs.
Relevant Player and Coaching News:
Top signings: None.
Top free agents lost: RB Walker, DB Bryant, two additional back seven contributors.
Staff notes: They lose OC Klint Kubiak and replace him with Brian Fleury, who has 12 years of NFL experience, the last seven with rival SF.
Notable draft additions: RB Price hopes to ease the loss of Walker. Safety Clark was selected for need area #2. That’s it.
Analysis: Seattle will strive to replace Walker, but for now, this is a big loss, as he took the pressure off Sam Darnold.
Roster Information, Including Key Players I’m Watching: The late start to free agency and the draft hampered their ability to restock the roster. RB is a worry, with Price untested and Charbonnet off injury. The OL was great in ’25, but Kubiak is gone, and two of the interior spots are not perfect. OL depth is a mystery. Safety play could be a bit down, but the rest of the defense is solid, and well coached. Shaheed is a dynamite return specialist. Players I’m watching include 2nd year WR Tory Horton, OL Jalen Sundell, and all the safeties.
Schedule Analysis Recap: Seattle’s uncommon opponents read home to Chicago and New England, and at Carolina. For a 1st place team, that’s not bad. The pacing is not perfect but they do not face any opponents coming off a bye. Game #1 is a rematch of the Super Bowl (home vs. NE). Washington has home game revenge hosting Seattle week three. Five of Seattle’s next six games are at home, three in prime time. It starts with visits from the Chargers and 49ers, then a short-week trip to Mile High and Denver (Thursday Night). Three home games follow, vs. KC (Seattle +3 rest edge) on Sunday Night, Chicago on MNF, and luckily, Arizona with the shorter week for the Seahawks. Games 11-17 feature talented opponents. A rested Seattle squad likely won’t mind going to SF, where they clinched the #1 NFC seed, and later, won the Super Bowl. They host Dallas on MNF, and stay at home after that to play the NYG. Next up is a trip to Philly and then a Christmas Night game hosting the Rams. It’s back-to-back six days between games for Seattle, but LA has only five days and a road trip before this likely critical divisional game. Closing games are at Carolina (Seattle extra rest, avoiding any letdown mode) and home to the Rams. There are plenty of short and long weeks, but Seattle catches a break in that a) five of the prime-time games are at home, and b) some of the short week games are also at home, and vs. manageable opponents.
2026 Team Keys: Fleury as the new offensive coordinator. The run game. Keeping Sam Darnold out of trouble.
Preseason News and Notes: Seattle looks like a team who got a late start to the upcoming season. The offense looks out of synch, and rookie RB Price didn’t take a snap, so we don’t know what he’s capable of. TE looks deep. QB Milroe easily outperformed Drew Lock, but the sacks taken (6) are a huge issue. No defensive starters played. While punter Dickson was great as usual, PK Myers was downright awful. There were mixed reviews on the return game splits. Safety Bud Clark is on IR and RB Charbonnet opens ’26 on the PUP list. Also, keep an eye on elite 2nd year safety Emmanwori (ankle), who is not a sure thing as of 9/1 to play week one.
2026 Seasonal Preview, Including Key Games, and Things to Look For: Game one is the Super Bowl rematch. We’ll get an early look as to how Darnold plays with less of a rush attack, and also a good look at Seattle’s pass rush vs. NE’s OL. Is Washington improved? That’s a week three Seattle road game. Games 4-8 are all tough, but four are at home. 6-3 seems realistic before they head to Vegas on 11/15, but check the run game to see if it is impacting Darnold’s overall effectiveness, and check the kicking game as well. The last four games could be tricky. There are three weeks in a row with just six days between games, one of which is at Philly. Games 16 and 18 are vs. the Rams. These games have been wild of late. How’s Seattle’s OL holding up? KEY GAMES: 10/4 vs. the Chargers, and the closing stretch. The Chargers are the type of team that could frustrate Darnold. If their new OC is making a difference, Herbert could be tough to stop.
The Final Word, Including Personal Strategy, and Tentative Power Rating: There’s much to like about the staff and team, but my worries are legit. If RB Price has any type of learning curve, Sam Darnold will be affected. The OC is new. Kubiak (now a head Coach) was masterful in game planning. Will he be missed? I think they could have addressed the OL a bit more, as yes, if the run game falters, Darnold will see much more pass rush pressure. Defensively, ten starters return. I wish Seattle would have drafted rated players late in the draft. Three of their final four picks were not NFL worthy. With the late start to the offseason, I see Seattle as a really good to great team that didn’t get better after the Super Bowl. Before LA made the moves for Garrett and Darnold my win grid had Seattle ahead of the Rams. I will revisit in a few days, but right now I still show the Seahawks with a path to 11-6. DECISIONS: I’m not likely to have a seasonal win play, but two respected handicappers in my circle are on the UNDER. I respect that, but instead will look to fade them in certain spots during the season, especially if I am right about Darnold having too much on his plate for ’26. My Power Rating set is 30.5.
Tampa Bay 2026 Preview:
Relevant Stats to Consider: With 2nd year RB Irving battling injuries (555-3.4), the run game suffered. The pass D% was below par as usual. The kick return D was bad. That’s about the only #’s which stood out.
Relevant Player and Coaching News:
Top signings: RB Gainwell, DL A’Shawn Robinson, LB’s Anzalone and Rozeboom.
Top free agents lost: WR Evans, backup RB White, LB David (retired), CB Dean.
Staff notes: They change OC’s, with Zac Robinson (Rams, then Atlanta) the new guy. Morris has inserted himself as the DC. That still scares me. Danny Smith spent 13 years with the Steelers. I don’t mind this hire.
Notable draft additions: Rookie edge rusher Bain and LB Trotter are both listed as starters. WR Hurst adds depth. Safety Scott is versatile.
Analysis: Replacements are on the roster for Evans and Dean. The draft added value, so make this a net gain.
Roster Information, Including Key Players I’m Watching: Tampa is counting on Irving to regain his rookie form. Evans will be missed for his contested catch skill set, but the unit is five deep. TE play will likely be mediocre. The OL could have received more attention. NT Vea’s happiness is crucial. The run D disappears when he is out of the lineup. I don’t anticipate much (positive) change in the pass defense. Special team play remains a worry. Players I’m watching include RB Irving, any replacement for DT Vea Vita if necessary, and OLB Yaya Diaby, who is now one of the veterans of the group despite being drafted in ’23.
Schedule Analysis Recap: I expected Tampa to start slow in ’25, with a tough early schedule, coupled with a early season -8 rest differential. I did NOT expect the Bucs to fold late, as games 12-17 lined up to be soft. For ’26, Tampa’s three uncommon opponents read home to the Rams and Chargers, and at Dallas. In this unusual season, Tampa is another 2nd place team with a tougher overall schedule than usual. In good news, Tampa has no true set of back-to-back road games (a bye week between games at Chicago/Detroit), and has the 4th shortest travel miles. Tampa has won their last five season openers. Is that an edge when they head to Cincy? Games 2-4 are at home, vs. Cleveland, Minny and GB. The Bucs have a trio of nicely spaced prime time games. Unfortunately, Todd Bowles is 4-12 under the lights, and 1-9 in their last ten, all with Baker Mayfield as his QB. Is this a coaching issue? The games at night are at Dallas (Thursday Night, so less prep time), at Chicago (Sunday Night) and home to Carolina on MNF. Tampa has three extra days before hosting Pittsburgh. The week seven game at Carolina is their 1st vs. the NFC South. Here’s an interesting quote from Baker Mayfield in advance of their home game vs. Atlanta and new coach Kevin Stefanski. “Still waiting on a text/call from him after I got shipped off like a piece of garbage. Can’t wait to see you twice a year, Coach.” Circle 11/1 and the road game at Atlanta in late December on your calendar. Four of Tampa’s last seven games are inside the division. The other three are home to the Chargers, at Baltimore and home to the Rams. That won’t be easy.
2026 Team Keys: Reducing QB interceptions. Fixing the pass D%. What happens if Vita is off the field.
Preseason News and Notes: The defense held up fairly well. If Bucky Irving (3-14) can regain his rookie form then the Irving/Gainwell combo can work. Jalon Daniels “won” the QB2 job, but for me, it means Mayfield needs to stay healthy. I didn’t learn much from the O/D, but special team play is a giant worry. Punting was consistently poor, and the return game splits were bottom tier. Every unit matters!
2026 Seasonal Preview, Including Key Games, and Things to Look For: I find game one at Cincy fascinating. Cincy is one of the “it” teams for ’26, but Tampa has excelled out of the gate. Tampa disappointed in ’25. With home games weeks 2-4, can’t they get off to a 3-1 start? Noting their prime time woes, I look for a loss at Dallas on Thursday Night, 10/8. As noted above, divisional play doesn’t start until week seven. As with a few tight divisions in ’26, wins vs. their rivals are critical. This is especially true since it’s likely only one team from the NFC South will make the playoffs. The obvious in-season check is Baker’s health, but I’d recommend checking the OL, pass D, and all special team play as well. Maybe I just care more about how special team play impacts win totals than other handicappers. On 12/6 Tampa hosts the Chargers. This is another fascinating game. Three of their final four games are vs. the NFC South, with the other game a host of the Rams. For LA, that’s sandwiched between the two Seattle games. Could that help the Bucs here? KEY GAMES: Mostly, it’s any game vs. the NFC South, but it would be nice to get off to a decent September start.
The Final Word, Including Personal Strategy, and Tentative Power Rating: As usual, Tampa came away with the division’s best draft class, mostly because the other teams tend to draft poorly. That has me thinking the Bucs still have the best roster, but with that being said, OL and TE needs were not addressed, and CB remains a worry in my eyes. The scary part is HC Bowles, who may be a bottom two coach for those with two or more years of experience. My April/May grid had Tampa at 8.8 wins. I feel like this could be a tad lower now, but the ceiling is a return to the divisional title if Baker Mayfield stays healthy and the special team unit woes get fixed. DECISIONS: None at this time. I’ll fade Bowles as appropriate, and look for lower scoring games if Baker misses time. My Power Rating set is 25.
Tennessee 2026 Preview:
Relevant Stats to Consider: Tennessee has allowed 69% through the air in each of the past two seasons. 1st downs showed a -77 ratio. The offense sputtered, with a 32% 3rd down conversion rate. Tennessee’s yardage differential was down by nearly 1,450 yards. They allowed 56 sacks. The point ratio was 16.7-28.1. They did find a good return specialist.
Relevant Player and Coaching News:
Top signings: WR Wandale Robinson, depth (2) at TE, six DL including Jermaine Johnson (trade involving DL Sweat) and Franklin-Myers, and four DB’s including Alontae Taylor and Cor’Dale Flott.
Top free agents lost: Center Levin, TE Okonkwo, DL Sweat and Sebastain, CB Baker.
Staff notes: Robert Salah is the new Head Coach. His tenure with the Jets didn’t go well but I’m okay giving him a 2nd chance. Speaking of 2nd chances, fired Head Coach Brian Daball (NYG) is the new OC. It’s probably an upgrade over ‘25, but by how much? Gus Bradley is the new DC, yet another former Head Coach. In a nutshell, his last three stints as a DC (2017-2024) didn’t go all that well. Watch his progress closely. I like special team coordinator John Fassal.
Notable draft additions: WR Tate is a likely starter, and young edge rusher Faulk should be used situationally. The defense is thin in spots, and so LB Hill might start. OG and DB got some depth pieces.
Analysis: Tennessee added a massive amount of team depth in free agency, with DL upgraded and perhaps DB as well.
Roster Information, Including Key Players I’m Watching: The OL is still a weak link, with only slight improvement likely. WR may not be impactful at the top, but the unit is definitely deeper. TE is league average at best, and probably worse. The depth chart shows six new defensive starters, but maybe none are impact players. The DL is likely their best area. Players I’m watching include WR Calvin Ridley, the OL JC Latham, two in the secondary, and ‘25 draftees FS Kevin Winston and CB Marcus Harris.
Schedule Analysis Recap: Last year I called Tennessee’s 1st six games “sneaky tough”. A lucky win facing Arizona prevented 0-6. Later, they had close to a 40-day stretch where they stayed in Nashville (4 home games and a bye). They underachieved, going 0-4. In ’26, games vs. uncommon opponents read home to the NYJ and at Las Vegas and Detroit. For the second year in a row the Titans have an all-Sunday schedule with ZERO prime-time games. That helps continuity. In addition, they face no teams off a bye and are the only NFL team without any rest day disadvantage (three rest day advantages for a +6 overall figure). Robert Saleh is the new Head Coach. His Titans open ‘26 by hosting the Jets, the team that fired him in midseason, ‘24. Brian Daball is the new offensive coordinator. He was fired from the NYG, their game three opponent. This season may be defined by what happens in games 5-7. Tennessee went 0-6 vs. the AFC South last year. They host Houston and go to Indy weeks 5-6 before they host Cleveland in another potentially winnable game. The Titans face Jacksonville twice in a three-game stretch after the bye. The ceiling is 6-5 heading into December, but the floor seems pretty low. The staff is a veteran one, but that doesn’t guarantee wins. There are no cold weather games on the schedule. Closing home games are vs. Washington (Commanders usually struggle in the 2nd of back-to-back road games), Indy (also in their 2nd of back-to-back road games) and Pittsburgh. That game is the last at this stadium (new venue in ’27). Closing road games are at Detroit, Vegas, and Hoston in the season finale.
2026 Team Keys: Both coordinators. The OL, still a work in progress. Overachieving at TE and in the less than exciting secondary.
Preseason News and Notes: The pass D% was over 69%, and that was with starters playing quite a bit more than most teams this past August. As people know, I’m all in favor of new staffs playing projected starters in the preseason, especially with the multitude of roster changes present right here. I love the work put in, but DC Bradley and the back seven didn’t get the job done, and that automatically becomes a September check point. The run game could be fine. QB Ward played in two games with modest stats, but I like the work. Rookie WR Tate had no stats. The only roster news was cutting a projected RG starter (Volson).
2026 Seasonal Preview, Including Key Games, and Things to Look For: HC Saleh hopes to start 1-0 by beating the team that fired him in ’24 (Jets). It may be an issue if that doesn’t get done. I think they could be competitive in OC Daball’s return to New York (NYG) week three, but I will need week 1-2 results from both teams to form a better opinion. Tennessee was 0-6 vs. the AFC South in ’25. They are 0-5 lately hosting Houston. I think this is an important game for the staff (10/11). Holding serve hosting Cleveland is essential if we are to take this team seriously in ’26. 4-4 is the goal before the 11/9 bye week, but that’s also the (high) ceiling. Once again, they need to split games vs. Jacksonville (games 9 and 11) in order to be taken seriously. How is Gus Bradley doing? Is the OL better than what they showed in ’25? Is TE play holding them back? I’m watching all of this, and readers, I heartily recommend making your own in-season check points. The favorite is 2-10 ATS in the Washington series (home game). That tells me this game can go either way. Three of the final five games could be competitive. They host Indy (lost last three at home), go to Vegas (lost there in ’25) and host Pitt. Has Tennessee earned the right to be considered relevant in these games? KEY GAMES: Games 1 (NYJ), 3 (at the NYG) and 5 (Houston). They need to get two wins out of this.
The Final Word, Including Personal Strategy, and Tentative Power Rating: I’m not sure how my early win grid had them at 6.5, as right now I see closer to 5.5. The roster is better and deeper, but not impactful. Maybe Saleh is a slight upgrade, and I think Daball is an offensive upgrade, but I’m still lukewarm on Gus Bradley. I’m also not sure the OL will limit sacks, and I have the ’26 pass D% projected high (68%). In a nutshell, despite free agency gains, OC Daball is charged with reducing the 56 sacks allowed, and DC Bradley must reduce the 68.9% pass defense. DECISIONS: Nothing in the future’s market. I’ll learn like everyone else as the season unfolds. My Power Rating set is 20.5.
Washington 2026 Preview:
Relevant Stats to Consider: Washington was outgained by over 1,100 yards thanks to a last place finish in yards allowed. The run game was strong, but the run D was soft, at 4.7-134.7 yards allowed per game. The turnover ratio was -13. They had just ten takeaways in ’25.
Relevant Player and Coaching News:
Top signings: RB Rashard White, two lower-level WR’s, TE depth, and too many defensive players to list, with four or five slated to start in ‘26. WR Diggs was recently added as well.
Top free agents lost: All losses (OG, rotational RB, two DB’s) carry minimal weight.
Staff notes: Dan Quinn is an average coach, not as good as he looked in ‘24, and not as bad as the record showed in ‘25. OC Kliff Kingsbury left his QB unprotected too much. The change is good. David Blough was a player in ‘23, an assistant here in ‘24, and a QB coach in ‘25. Is he ready for this role (at least he knows the organization)? A DC change was also warranted. Daronte Jones comes over from Minnesota (DB coach). Learning under Brian Flores, I wonder if he’ll bring blitz tendencies to the Commanders?
Notable draft additions: LB Styles was a great addition. WR Antonio Williams is complimentary. Edge, RB and center saw depth added.
Analysis: The roster has been upgraded, especially on defense. Oweh, Chenal, Chaisson and Cross bring a solid stat sheet to the team, and Styles will start as well. DB Amik Robertson could also contribute. It’s not an all-pro lineup, but it’s far better than ’25. Adding WR Diggs is an excellent offensive move, but the recent injury to LT Tunsil (time frame not known as of this writing) isn’t ideal.
Roster Information, Including Key Players I’m Watching: A healthy McLaurin stabilizes the WR unit. Okonkwo could add TE juice. RB play will be hit or miss, but likely sufficient. The biggest offensive question is the suddenly weaker OL, trying to protect QB Daniels. I show EIGHT new defensive starters. Like I’ve said all offseason, the starters are decent, but not all-pro types. I’m a bit worried about PK. Players I’m watching include year two RB Croskey-Merritt, ’24 drafted CB Mike Sainristil, and the winner of the PK competition.
Schedule Analysis Recap: Last year I wrote that Washington faced a serious bump in schedule strength and in prime-time games. In addition, they played four road games in a five-game stretch, had a game in Madrid, faced four teams off full bye weeks, and had an overall rest differential of -17 before the final two games. That was too much to overcome. This year Washington’s three uncommon opponents read home to Atlanta and Cincy, and at Minny. They face no team coming off a bye, and have a rest disadvantage just once (29 teams have two or more such instances). The overall rest differential is +9, a far cry from last year. While games 1-8 are tough, the layout after that is quite good. Washington plays five of six divisional opponents in their 1st nine games, starting week one at Philly and week two at Dallas. With week three a host of Seattle, this could mean a slow start. After playing in London (Indy), the Commanders host the NYG, hoping for no jet lag. Games 6-8 are at SF, and home to Philly and the Rams. These are tough matchups, but Washington has their bye week prior to the home games. Games 9-17 are vs. “easier” opponents but there are some “buyer beware” spots. They play at the NYG in a short-week Thursday game. They host Joe Burrow and Cincy with extra rest (MNF), but then travel with short rest to Arizona in perhaps a letdown spot. Games 15-17 are at Minny, at Jacksonville, and home to Dallas. The pacing is great, but these look like tossup games.
2026 Team Keys: Keeping QB Daniels healthy and creating a favorable offense for him. Stopping the run. Working hard to get the (8) new defensive starters in synch. Making field goals with perhaps a less than desirable kicking unit (constant check).
Preseason News and Notes: Washington added 19 bodies defensively. The run D didn’t look improved, but the projected DL starters sat. The LB’s saw more action, but didn’t impact the run game. I would have had the projected starters and the newcomers play even more snaps to help with cohesiveness, but the team saw things differently, and/or know what they want from practices. Still both coordinators are new. Two DL are out (Newton out for much of ’26). The bigger injury news is LT Tunsil, who may miss a big chunk of ’26.
2026 Seasonal Preview, Including Key Games, and Things to Look For: Improved or not, Washington has one of the toughest opening set of four games. They’ll need a split of Seattle (home game) and the London game vs. Indy to likely avoid 0-4. I think that happens, but they could still start out 2-4 before the 10/25 bye. We’ll have GREAT info by them on the new coordinators, QB play, and how the almost completely revamped defense is doing. 11/1 hosting Philly is a no excuses game, with Washington having clear scheduling advantages. This team has not always fared well at home but that must change. They’ve also had trouble historically in the 2nd of back-to-back road games, which is the case 12/6 at Tennessee and early January at Jacksonville. If Washington plays like they did in ’24 then these games are winnable, but I think a split is the ceiling. 2nd place in the improved NFC East could yield a playoff spot. The finale hosting Dallas could be very meaningful, but only if the OL can overcome the Tunsil injury to protect Daniels. KEY GAMES: Weeks three and four (Seattle/Indy). Can they get to Darnold? Can the offense outscore the Colts?
The Final Word, Including Personal Strategy, and Tentative Power Rating: I had them at 8-9 in April/May. Sadly, I’m currently no higher, pending the final win grid. I know QB Daniels gives them a (much) higher ceiling, and adding WR Diggs solidifies this unit. I also know that the team will be in trouble if Daniels misses time. Defensively, yes, they are better, but are the newcomers other than draftee Styles really impactful? I do not think edge rusher was directly addressed. CB was not addressed, and that was my #1 need. Past drafts (rightfully) built up the culture, as there was none under Dan Snyder. This one needed to be more impactful. If all goes right, Washington clearly challenges for the NFC East title. If not (coaching, QB, OL, pass D%), then the team will not reach the playoffs. Can QB Daniels stay healthy all season? DECISIONS: I took Washington OVER 7.5 wins when the line went to even. I knew Tunsil was out, but was hoping it would be for a shorter time. I considered +525 to win the division. I think I have great checkpoints which will enable me to adjust as needed. Finally, Washington had a turnover ratio of -13 in ’25. Getting to zero would save about 45 points. My Power Rating set is 25.
