Yesterday’s Reflection: What We Learned
It’s really two days ago’s reflection, but let’s not argue over nuances. We learned some very valuable pieces of information from the dumpster fire that was our investment tendencies on Tuesday. Reminder: I sent out an investment in-game last night that hit for +3units. Make sure you follow on twitter (@jksportsbets) for these profitable in-game investments!
- Columbus simply can’t be trusted right now.
- The Coyotes are being overvalued in the market (more below).
- Vegas is a very good team, and I would not want to face them in the first round. Clearly, the addition of Stone has sparked something.
We got a good slate tonight! I have a LOT of value here.
Today’s Slate
We have 11 games to wade through tonight, and there’s value to be had across the board.
Is there any team hotter right now than the Bruins? Four wins in a row and 11 in their last 12. If you’ve been investing with them it has paid off handsomely. Wins against Tampa, the Sharks (twice), Vegas, the Isles, the Caps; you name a team, and Boston has beaten them recently. Meanwhile, the Panthers have lost five in a row, and are coming off an overtime loss to Pittsburgh. Florida has now fallen out of the playoff race, and it’s starting to show. The ML is too juiced, and the spread is only at +125, so take a 3-Way ML bet for the B’s tonight.
Boston 3-Way ML (-145) 2units
The Penguins have won seven in a row against Columbus dating back to 2017. Columbus is reeling, and no one on that team is clicking with each other. Also, three of their last four head-to-head have gone OVER the total. Columbus has lost four of the last six as an underdog and lost 5-2 the last time these teams met. Columbus has been inconsistent across the board lately, and inconsistency won’t fly tonight in Pittsburgh – the Pens are playing their best hockey of the season. In an interesting spot, these two teams will face off again on Saturday. I think the fireworks happen here; tonight. Take the over and take the Pens.
Pittsburgh ML (-130) 2units
Columbus/Pittsburgh OVER 6.5 (-128) 1unit
Tampa Bay. What is there to say that you don’t already know. Winners of 12 of their last 13. Winners of the President’s Trophy. Winners of the regular season. Here’s one you might not know; in their last eight at home, Tampa has scored more than four goals six times. Right now, you can find a team total O/U set at 3.5. Clear OVER bet there. Additionally, a 3-Way line on Tampa is under -175 right now, which is not that common. The Wild have strung together a couple wins which might be the reason for the ML drop, but these wins were not deserved. They can’t stand up to the competition in Florida.
Tampa Bay -1.5 (+105)
1unit
Tampa Bay 3-Way ML (-160) 3units
Tampa Bay Team Total OVER 3.5 (-120) 3units
Vancouver and Edmonton have had their struggles this year. One of the biggest issue for the ‘Nucks is the goaltending and the depth (or lack thereof) in that position. Tonight, they’re starting Thatcher Demko in his fourth ever career start. The last two starts he gave up eight goals combined. He’s only started two games since the middle of January, the aforementioned two; oh, and by the way, he gave up those eight goals to the Sabres and the Coyotes. Not exactly elite competition. Interest stat: in their six games at home with an O/U of 6, the Oilers are 4-1-1 to the OVER. Edmonton is 5-2 in the last seven, while the ‘Nucks are 2-6 in their last eight. Over and Oilers look good here. The regular ML is too juiced, so look 3-Way instead.
Edmonton -1.5 (+160)
2units
Edmonton 3-Way ML (-120) 3units
Edmonton/Vancouver OVER 6 (+108) 2units
This is a clear bet on Calgary spot. They’ve had some tough losses lately having lost three in a row. But let’s keep in mind which teams these losses were to: Minnesota, Toronto, and Vegas. Those three teams are definitely fighting for playoff positioning, and losses to them are nothing to be disappointed about. Calgary had a seven game win streak before this losing streak where they beat the Islanders twice, the Pens once, and these ‘Yotes 5-2. Meanwhile, Arizona has won six of their last seven, yet those wins were not convincing, and they were against subpar competition. Due to recency bias, you’re getting a ridiculous price on Calgary today. Take the trifecta with confidence.
Calgary -1.5 (+200)
1unit
Calgary 3-Way ML (+110) 2units
Calgary ML (-129) 3units
The Kings have gone OVER in five of their last six, and yet the O/U sits at 5.5 simply because the Blues are in town. Los Angeles is 6-2 to the over in their last eight. Jake Allen is expected to start for St. Louis tonight, and he’s given up at least four goals in three of the last five. Meanwhile, Quick posts an ugly 3.30 GAA and .891 SV through 36 games played this year. I like the OVER here. Also, the Blues are not good in the second half of back-to-backs this year, having lost 10 of their last 12 in that role, including ugly losses to Arizona (twice) and Anaheim. They were outscored in those two losses to Arizona 12-1. Yuck. The Kings have taken many quality teams the distance this year, just to fall short in the third or in overtime. We keep thinking their motivation will drop but it doesn’t. At +152, it’s too good a spot to pass up. Keep an eye on my twitter (@jksportsbets) specifically for this game, I can see situations where we can find value in-game as well.
Los Angeles ML (+152)
1unit
Los Angeles/St. Louis OVER 5.5 (+123) 2units
You might notice there’s a very blatant OVER bet missing from my recommendations tonight. Yep. I’m doing the unthinkable and telling you to fade the Blackhawks OVER tonight. This one’s based on intuition; the ‘Hawks have been an over machine. I’m very wary of tonight’s game against the Sabres, and I think you should be too. Invest in the game total with care.
Follow me on twitter (@jksportsbets) during the entire NHL slate tonight, as I release IN-GAME plays that greatly increase profitability. Make sure you have the alarm bell turned on!
