Like these early games more than I thought. Putting 0.5 units on KC to beat Houston, the price is just too good right now, and I like the over in Pitt/CIN. Officially:
KC Royals ML (+283), .05 units to win 1.4 units
One of my favorite betting writers, Sherwood says it better than I can.
Pitt/CIN over 9 (-114), to win 1 unit
R. Contreras has a worse xERA than his actual, even after his horrific showing against Milwaukee recently. Minor had some unlucky scenarios leading up to this game but he’s far from his elite years, it’s been a steady decline since 2019, and Pittsburgh can find contact against less capable pitchers. If you look at their splits, generally elite throwers give the Pirates issues, but weaker arms enable more consistent production for their lineup.
