The AFC East:

The AFC East was a bad division that just happened to produce a Super Bowl team thanks to a whole lot of chaos breaking the right way. The Bills once again choked when they had the opportunity of a lifetime, while the Patriots slid into the big game with the easiest schedule in recent memory. It’s still wild that the Bills were –260 to win the division while the Patriots sat at +475. Funny how that worked out, especially considering the Bills also had a pretty easy schedule and still managed to fold when the games actually mattered. At least they snuck in as a wildcard. If you want to revisit that mess, the Bills collapse is a case study in wasted potential.

The Dolphins were complete trash most of the year — unless they woke up feeling dangerous, which happened exactly twice when they beat the Falcons and Bills by double digits. The Jets, meanwhile, were very Jets‑like, once again finishing as the worst team in the league. For 2026/2027, the division gets a shake‑up with two new coaching staffs and enough offseason drama to fill a documentary. If you want to dig into that chaos, the AFC East drama is worth a look.

From a schedule standpoint, the AFC East draws the AFC West and the NFC North — a combination I’d call legitimately difficult. No more cakewalks, no more accidental Super Bowl runs. This year, the division actually has to earn it. Let’s see how it looks.

AFC East – Full Offensive Rankings (2025 EPA Data)

(Rank = position out of 32 teams)

Best bet:  Bills to win the AFC East -125 – 1 star

Odds to win the Division

• Bills -125
• Patriots +120
• Jets +1900
• Dolphins +4000 

1. Buffalo Bills – 

Vegas win total: 10.5 juiced to the over -120

2025 Wins:  12

Pythagorean Wins:  11.32

Schedule: Medium – at large @ Texans, @ Rams, vs The Ravens

Schedule Last Year: Easy

Key losses: Coach Sean McDermott, LB Matt Milano, Edge Joey Bosa, DT DaQuan Jones, WR Curtis Samuel, DT Larry Ogunjobi, S Taylor Rapp, CB Tre’Davious White, G David Edwards, QB Mitch Trubisky, CB Cam Lewis

Key additions: Coach Joe Brady, DC Jim Leonard, OC Pete Carmichael Jr., WR DJ Moore, Edge Bradley Chubb, CB Dee Alford, QB Kyle Allen, S Chauncey Gardner-Johnson, C Austin Corbett

Key Draft Picks:  Edge TJ Parker, CB Davison Igbinosun, T Jude Bowry, WR Skyler Bell, LB Kaleb Elarms-Orr

Summary:  

The Sean McDermott era ends with a completed pass being called an interception thanks to yet another round of game‑changing NFL officiating. Fitting, honestly. And yes, I agree — it was time. McDermott had plenty of chances with Josh Allen to finally break through to the promised land, yet every season ended with the same “close but not close enough” feeling. Now we finally get to see Joe Brady, the offensive coordinator behind that absurd 2019 LSU offense, take over as head coach. It feels like a refreshing reset for Josh Allen’s career. If you want to revisit that coaching shift, the Joe Brady hire is one of the biggest storylines in the AFC.

Looking at the numbers, the offense hasn’t been the problem. Josh Allen dragged a receiver‑less roster to 3rd in offensive EPA per play, which is borderline miraculous. The Bills dealt with a ridiculous number of injuries on both sides of the ball, yet still managed to stay afloat. This year, they finally get a real playmaker at wide receiver in DJ Moore — the first true WR1 they’ve had since Stefon Diggs. James Cook remains the bell cow at running back, with enough depth behind him to keep the rotation fresh. For more on that upgrade, the Bills offensive outlook looks legitimately dangerous.

The defense did lose some legendary pieces in Matt Milano and Taylor Rapp, but they also got younger at several spots. As long as the draft hits, the talent infusion should help. The best addition, though, is defensive coordinator Jim Leonhard. I truly believe he can turn this group around from ranking 32nd in opponent rush EPA to something respectable — maybe even middle of the pack. His scheme fits the personnel, and his track record speaks for itself. If you want to dig deeper, the Leonhard defensive impact is worth watching.

I’m genuinely excited for this Bills team in 2026. They finally have a modern offensive mind, a real WR1, a healthier roster, and a defensive coordinator who can fix their biggest weakness. I think they win the division — and for once, it might not require divine intervention or a miracle whistle.

My Number:  11.16

Action – Bills to win the AFC East -125 – 1 star

Power Rating: 4.25

2.  New England Patriots – 

Vegas win total: 10.5 juiced to the under -140

2025 Wins:  14

Pythagorean Wins:  12.54

Schedule: Medium Easy – At large @ Seahawks, vs Steelers, @ Jaguars,

Schedule Last Year: Easy

Key losses:  WR Stephon Diggs, Edge Jahlani Tavai, Edge K’Lavon Chaisson, DT Khyris Tonga, S Jalen Hawkins, T Vederian Love, LB Jack Gibbens, TE Austin Hooper

Key additions:  WR AJ Brown, WR Romeo Doubs, G Alijah Vera-Tucker, Edge Dre’Mont Jones, TE Julian Hill, FB Reggie Gillman, S Kevin Byard, LB KJ Britt

Key Draft Picks: T Caleb Lomu, Edge Gabe Jacas, TE Eli Raridon, CB Karon Prunty, T Dametrious Crownover

Summary:  

The hype was absolutely correct on the Patriots last year as they went from four wins to fourteen. I will say, though, that having the easiest schedule in recent NFL history certainly helped. Nonetheless, this was a good team. Were they great? I’m not so sure. Losing to the Raiders and Steelers was… let’s call it “character‑building.” If you want to revisit that rollercoaster, the Patriots 2025 surge is worth a look.

On offense, Drake Maye has proven he’s a franchise quarterback — which is massive. Losing Stefon Diggs hurts far less when A.J. Brown walks through the door to replace him. The Pats have two solid running backs in Rhamondre Stevenson and Darrell Henderson, and the offensive line looks more stable than it’s been in years. Even with the cupcake schedule, this team was legitimately formidable. For more on that unit, the Patriots offensive outlook is trending upward.

The problem lies with the defense, which ranked 23rd in opponent rushing success rate and 18th in dropback success rate. In other words, they gave up first downs but not a ton of explosive plays — great when you’re playing tomato cans all year, maybe not ideal for the upcoming season. I still feel they didn’t fix the run defense. Maybe they’re leaning into the classic bend‑but‑don’t‑break philosophy, but they also need to replace edge rusher K’Lavon Chaisson, who left in free agency. Dre’Mont Jones is a downgrade there. If you want to dig deeper, the Patriots defensive concerns remain very real.

The good news? The Patriots luck into another pretty easy schedule thanks to a soft division. It’s also kind of weird that their first three games are all their at‑large opponents — a strange quirk that could either help them start hot or expose them early. And yes, the Vrabel drama will continue to hover over this team like a storm cloud. For more on that saga, the Vrabel fallout is still lingering.

All in all, I have the Patriots 2.75 points better than the average team heading into 2026. Not elite, not fraudulent — just a good team with a favorable path and a few glaring weaknesses that could matter when the schedule finally toughens up.

My Number:  10.77 wins

New England Patriots Power Rating: 2.75

3. New York Jets – 

Vegas win total: 5.5 juiced to the over -120

2025 Wins:  3

Pythagorean Wins:  4.42

Schedule: Easy – at large @ Titans, vs Browns, @ Cardinals

Schedule Last Year: Easy

Key losses: OC Tanner Engstrand, DC Steve Wilks, QB Justin Fields, T/G Alijay Vera-Tucker, G John Simpson, LB Quincy Williams, Edge Michael Clemons, K Nick Folk, QB Tyrod Taylor, S Tony Adams, WR Josh Reynolds

Key additions: DC Brian Duker, OC Frank Reich, QB Geno Smith, Edge Joseph Ossai, LB Demario Davis, Edge Kingsley Enagbare, S Dane Belton, CB Nahshon Wright, S Andre Cisco

Whom they drafted: Edge David Bailey, TE Kenyon Sadiq, WR Omar Cooper, CB D’Angelo Ponds, QB Cade Klubnik

Summary: 

From Justin Fields to Geno Smith — what could possibly go wrong? I asked myself that exact same question last year when Fields was signed, and here we are again. The Jets always seem to have talent, but never the person who can actually put it all together. And rather than blaming head coach Aaron Glenn, we of course fire the coordinators first, saying goodbye to Tanner Engstrand and Steve Wilks. Frank Reich comes in as offensive coordinator with plenty of experience, yet he hasn’t exactly lit up a scoreboard since the Andrew Luck era. If you want to revisit that carousel, the Jets coaching shuffle is a whole saga.

Geno Smith returns from the past with some off‑field drama, including domestic assault violations that could derail his season before it starts. That means sixth‑round pick Cade Klubnik may have to be “the guy,” which is… terrifying. This team ranked a putrid 29th in offensive EPA and 30th on defense, even with big names like Breece Hall at running back and Garrett Wilson at wide receiver. The draft pick of Omar Cooper Jr. could pay off if they get competent quarterback play, but Geno doesn’t exactly look past his first checkdown very often. For more on that mess, the Jets QB situation is one of the league’s biggest question marks.

I do like the pick of David Bailey at edge — he showed real technique and upside — and if Will McDonald finally steps up, the defensive line could actually be decent. Linebacker Demario Davis comes in hoping to revamp his NFL career with a fresh start, but if things go south, they could go way south, especially with a secondary full of question marks. The upside is there to be close to average, but realistically, this feels like a six‑win team. If you want to dig deeper, the Jets roster outlook paints the same picture.

The Jets have talent. They always have talent. But until someone actually connects the dots, it’s hard to expect anything more than another year of “Jets being Jets.”

My Number:  6.21

Action – Lean over

New York Jets Power Rating:  -7

4.  Miami Dolphins –

Vegas win total: 4.5 juiced to the under -120

2025 Wins: 7

Pythagorean Wins:  6.64

Schedule: Hard – At large @ 49ers, vs Bengals, @ Colts

Schedule Last Year: Easy

Key losses:  Coach Mike McDaniel, QB Tua Tagovailoa WR Tyreek Hill, WR Jaylen Waddle, Edge Bradley Chubb, G Cole Strange, G James Daniels, S Ifeatu Melifonwu, G Liam Echenberg, TE Darren Waller, T Larry Borom, TE Julian Hill, FB Alec Ingold

Key additions: Coach Jeff Hafley, OC Bobby Slowik, DC Sean Duggan, QB Malik Willis, TE Greg Dulcich

Whom they drafted: T Kaydn Proctor, CB Chris Johnson, LB Jacob Rodriguez, WR Caleb Douglas, TE Will Kacmarek, WR Chris Bell and a bunch of dudes.

Summary: 

Unfortunately, the Miami Dolphins just couldn’t get it done with Mike McDaniel. He was simply too cool for Miami and will now take his talents to San Diego. Anyway, the only thing you really need to know about the Dolphins is that they completely gutted this roster. The Malik Willis signing is just a band‑aid to save face, but make no mistake — this team is absolutely trying to land a real quarterback in the next draft class. If you want to revisit that teardown, the Dolphins reset tells the whole story.

There isn’t much to say except that they got a steal with Texas Tech linebacker Jacob Rodriguez late in the second round. I genuinely believe he could be Defensive Rookie of the Year, especially since the Dolphins won’t have much else to look forward to. Running back De’Von Achane is probably the only exciting thing on offense — and that’s only if the offensive line holds up. This unit ranked 29th last season and will be completely revamped for 2026. When your “number one receiver” is Malik Washington, that tells you everything: they do not have a number one receiver. For more on that offensive collapse, the Dolphins skill positions are a full rebuild.

The defense also took big hits, losing Bradley Chubb and safety Ifeatu Melifonwu. They at least hired a defensive‑minded coach in Jeff Hafley, who should keep the unit respectable, but there’s only so much duct tape you can apply. Hafley’s scheme should help stabilize things, but the talent drain is real. If you want to dig deeper, the Hafley defensive impact is worth watching.

My Number:  3.85 wins

Action – Lean Under but take Jacob Rodriguez +2200 for defensive rookie of the year.

Miami Dolphins Power rating: -8