AFC West:

The AFC West last year almost snuck another team into the Super Bowl. Unfortunately, the late freak injury to Bo Nix completely derailed that opportunity. And speaking of quarterback injuries, the division also lost the NFL’s love child, Patrick Mahomes, about two‑thirds into the season — which suddenly made the AFC a whole lot more interesting.

The Chargers weren’t spared either, getting hit with the injury bug and losing both starting tackles plus a handful of linebackers. Meanwhile, the Broncos and Raiders were the healthiest squads… at least until the end, when the football gods remembered they existed.

Heading into 2026, the outlook is pretty even among the top three teams, while the Raiders finally landed their franchise quarterback. The AFC West draws the AFC East and NFC West this year — a schedule I’d call “medium hard,” like ordering wings that say spicy but you know they’re lying.

The big questions now are whether Mahomes can drag the Chiefs back to the big game, whether Jim Harbaugh can add a Super Bowl to go with his college football natty, and whether Sean Payton can add another trophy to his case. One thing’s certain: this division is going to be very interesting.

AFC West — OFFENSE (2025 EPA Data)

(Rank = position out of 32 teams)

AFC West — DEFENSE (2025 EPA Data)

Odds to win the division: 

• Chiefs +170
• Chargers +185
• Broncos +210
• Raiders +1500

1. Denver Broncos – 

Vegas win total:  9.5 juiced to the over -115

2025 Wins:  14

Pythagorean Wins:  11.21

Schedule: Medium Easy – at large vs Jaguars, @ Panthers, @ Steelers

Schedule Last Year:  Medium Easy

Key losses: OC Joe Lombardi, DT John Franklin-Meyers, LB Dre Greenlaw, S P.J. Locke

Key additions: OC Davis Webb, WR Jaylen Waddle, S Tycen Anderson

Key draft picks: DT Tyler Onyedim, RB Jonah Coleman, T Kage Casey

Summary:  

The Broncos were the number one seed in the AFC until Bo Nix went down at the end of their divisional playoff game against the Bills. How did they get there, you ask? Well, they certainly had some things break their way. The division clearly weakened with all the injuries, and Denver became the second‑most overachieving team in the league, winning 14 games despite a Pythagorean expectation of 11.21. Even with that bit of luck baked in, they were still the best team in the division.

Their offseason looked a lot like the Rams’ “known commodity over draft picks” approach, trading their first‑rounder for wide receiver Jaylen Waddle. That move filled a glaring hole at receiver, and honestly, it’s an A+ decision — if you’re going for it, go for it. The Broncos weren’t flashy last season, ranking only 15th in offensive EPA, but they got the job done with the schedule they had. The good news is that the schedule remains medium‑easy this year, even for a first‑place team.

David Webb slides into the offensive coordinator role after serving as quarterbacks coach, so there’s no major philosophical shift despite Joe Lombardi heading to the Ravens. The defense is still the backbone of this team. Yes, they gave up explosive plays, but they also ranked number one in defensive success rate, which is exactly how they managed to rack up so many wins. The wildest part? The Broncos had a –3 turnover differential and still won 14 games. That’s legitimately impressive.

I don’t expect the defense to skip a beat — if anything, they might improve. And unlike the Chiefs’ situation, Bo Nix should be back for training camp, fully healthy after dealing with nothing more than a broken ankle. For now, I have the Broncos as the top team in this division.

My number:  11.11

Action – Over 9.5 wins – 1 star

Denver Broncos Power Rating: 3.5

2. Los Angeles Chargers – 

Vegas win total: 9.5 juiced to the over -130

2025 Wins: 11

Pythagorean Wins:  9.20

Schedule: Medium Hard – at large vs Texans, @ Ravens, @ Buccaneers

Schedule Last Year: Medium Easy

Key losses – DC Jessee Minter,  OC Greg Roman, Edge Odafe Oweh, G Zion Johnson, CB Benjamin St-Juste, DT Da’shawn Hand, DT Otito Ogbonnia, G Mekhi Becton, RB Najee Harris, TE Will Dissly, G Trevor Penning, WR Keenan Allen, RB Hassan Haskins

Key additions: OC Mike McDaniel, DC Chris O’Leary, C Tyler Biadasz, TE Charlie Kolar, G Cole Strange, RB Keaton Mitchell, FB Alec Ingold, DT Dalvin Tomlinson, TE David Njoku

Key draft picks:  Edge Akheem Meidor, C Jake Slaughter, WR Brenen Thompson, T Travis Burke, S Genesis Smith, DT Nick Barrett

Summary:  

The Chargers are bolting into Harbaugh’s third year with a whole lot of hope. The problem is that this team was injured from the jump, losing both offensive tackles — Rashawn Slater and Joe Alt — almost immediately. That certainly complicated life for Justin Herbert. The other complication? Not having actual playmakers. I could argue the Chargers have the worst skill‑position talent in the entire NFL. And honestly, that’s the Harbaugh way: get guys with no egos, play smash‑mouth football, and hope it works. It does… until your entire roster ends up on IR. If you want to revisit that philosophy, the Harbaugh roster build is a fascinating case study.

Offensively, this team ranked a poor 24th in EPA per play. Part of that was injuries, and part of it was simply not having anyone who scares a defense. Offensive coordinator Greg Roman got the boot and was replaced by offensive guru Mike McDaniel, who finally escaped Miami. This is a real upgrade. I expect Herbert and company to scheme their way into better situations. For more on that shift, the McDaniel impact should be significant.

The defense kept this team afloat, ranking 6th in EPA per play. But there have been changes. Odafe Oweh and Benjamin St‑Juste became too expensive, and neither was properly replaced. That could weaken the pass defense — and in this division, that’s not ideal. If you want to dig deeper, the Chargers defensive outlook has some red flags.

The biggest obstacle — besides a healthy Patrick Mahomes — is the schedule. The Chargers got absolutely hammered in rest disadvantage: –24 net rest days, the worst in the league. They play four teams coming off bye weeks and two teams coming off Thursday Night Football. That’s brutal, especially as rest has become one of the most important hidden edges in the NFL. For more on that, the Chargers rest disadvantage is worth a look.

All in all, there isn’t enough talent on this roster to take them to the promised land, even if they smash their way into the playoffs. Betting unders might be the best route — their totals record was 6‑11‑1 last season. They have a great coach and a below‑average team, and that combination usually leads to a lot of close, low‑scoring games.

My Number:  9.6 wins

Action – No Play

Las Angeles Chargers Power Rating: 2.25

3. Kansas City Chiefs – 

Vegas win total: 9.5 juiced to the under -130

2025 Wins: 6

Pythagorean Wins: 9.57

Schedule: Medium Easy – at large vs Colts, @ Falcons, @ Bengals

Schedule Last Year:  Medium

Key losses: OC Matt Nagy, CB Jaylen Watson, CB Trent McDuffie, S Bryan Cook, LB Leo Chenal, QB Gardner Minshew, WR Marquise Brown, T Jawaan Taylor, Edge Charles Omenihu, CB Joshua Williams, RB Isiah Pacheco, CB Nazeeh Johnson, RB Kareem Hunt, T Wanya Morris

Key additions: OC Eric Bieniemy, QB Justin Fields, RB Kenneth Walker, S Alohi Gilman, DT Khyiris Tonga, CB Kaiir Elam, CB Kader Kohou, RB Emari Demarcado, CB L’Jarius Sneed.

Key draft picks: CB Mansoor Delane, DT Peter Woods, Edge R Mason Thomas, CB Jadon Canady

Summary: 

The Chiefs had the biggest under‑achieving season in the league, finishing with a massive –3.57 Pythagorean win differential. Even without Mahomes, this team still should have stumbled into at least nine wins. It was quite the opposite of the year before, when they massively overachieved and rattled off 15 regular‑season victories. So what the heck happened?

Sure, Patrick Mahomes got hurt in December, but let’s be honest — this team only had six wins and eight losses at that point. The problems started long before his knee did. Offensive coordinator Matt Nagy is gone and Eric Bieniemy is back, but both guys come from the Andy Reid school of coaching, so don’t expect some dramatic philosophical shift. The offensive line regressed badly, dropping to around a 20th‑place ranking, and that alone explains a big chunk of the offensive inconsistency.

We also don’t know when Mahomes will be fully healthy. Nine months of recovery for a torn ACL and LCL puts his Week 1 status in the “maybe, but let’s not bet the mortgage on it” category. The running back situation looks better now that Kenneth Walker III is in the building, but the receiver group is a bit of a mystery with Rashee Rice’s off‑field issues and Xavier Worthy’s health concerns. And Travis Kelce, bless him, is officially entering dinosaur age — still dangerous, but no longer the unstoppable force he once was.

The defense was their best unit, ranking 12th in EPA per play, but even that side of the ball saw turnover in the secondary and linebacker groups. Defensive end Felix Anudike‑Uzoma, who missed last preseason, is expected back, and he’ll join Chris Jones and George Karlaftis in trying to pressure the AFC West’s parade of star quarterbacks. Color me skeptical.

The Chiefs were massive under‑achievers from a Pythagorean standpoint, but even accounting for that, I don’t have them rated much higher than an average team right now. The schedule should theoretically keep them in the mix, but everything hinges on how Mahomes looks at the start of the season. Until we see that, Kansas City sits firmly in wait‑and‑see territory.

My Number: 9.79

Action lean over 9.5 wins

Kansas City Chiefs Power rating: 1.25

4.  Las Vegas Raiders – 

Vegas win total: 5.5 juiced to the over -130

2025 Wins:  3

Pythagorean Wins:  3.67

Schedule: Medium –  at large @ Saints, @ Browns, vs Titans

Schedule Last Year: Medium

Key losses: Coach Pete Carrol, QB Geno Smith, QB Kenny Pickett, T Stone Forsyth, G Alex Cappa, LB Elandon Roberts, RB Raheem Mostert

Key additions:  Coach Klint Kubiak, OC Andrew Janocko, DC Rob Leonard, C Tyler Linderbaum, Edge Kwity Paye, LB Quay Walker, LB Nakobe Dean, WR Jalen Nailor, QB Kirk Cousins, TE Conner Heyward, T Spencer Burford

Key draft picks: QB Fernando Mendoza, CB Treydan Stukes, Edge Keyron Crawford, T Trey Zuhn III, CB Jermod McCoy

Summary:  

Another year, another head coach for the Raiders. This time, though, it feels like they might have actually gotten it right. Klint Kubiak was more than solid with Sam Darnold in Seattle, guiding that offense all the way to a Super Bowl, and now he gets a full reset in Las Vegas. A lot is changing, and for once it looks like we might actually have a new and improved football team on our hands.

Say what you want about Kirk Cousins, but we’ve seen him thrive plenty of times with competent coaching. He’ll be a placeholder for top draft pick Fernando Mendoza, and the only real question is when Mendoza takes the reins. It could even be Week 1, which is exactly why this team is so hard to predict. Anything is better than last season’s dead‑last ranking in EPA, so the bar is not exactly high.

I like a lot of the free‑agency moves — the Raiders finally grabbed some dudes who can actually play football. Tight end Conner Heyward is a sneaky good addition and wildly underrated in space. He’ll get his snaps when he’s not busy blocking for Jeanty. Brock Bowers should be thrilled, because he’s going to get the lion’s share of the passing game with the wide receiver room still looking pretty thin.

On defense, the Raiders held onto Max Crosby after asking for the moon and stars in trade talks. They also made smart moves at linebacker and edge, reuniting Nakobe Dean and Quay Walker like it’s Georgia all over again. The downside? Just like the Chargers, they got absolutely shafted with a brutal –16 net rest‑day differential in the 2026–27 schedule. At least their at‑large schedule came out pretty easy.

If everything clicks — the coaching, the quarterback transition, the new additions — this Raiders team could easily be the most improved squad in the league for 2026.

My Number:   6.57 wins

Action – Lean over

Las Vegas Raiders Power Rating:  -6.5