AFC West – The AFC West last year was a somewhat weak division that I expect to be much stronger for 2025. All four coaches have been to super bowls with three of them all winning at least one. Jim Harbaugh hasn’t gotten back there for a while due to his national championship stint over at Michigan. The biggest question is if the Chiefs are ever going to falter. Can the other great coaches catch up? What are the big personnel changes? This division plays the AFC South and the NFC East which I would call a pretty favorable draw. The AFC South is garbage, and the NFC East is top-heavy. Let’s see how it all shakes out.
Best Bet: Chargers over 9.5 wins +105 – 1 star (FD)
Divisional Odds: Chiefs -120 – Broncos +300 – Chargers +310 – Raiders +2000
Kansas City Chiefs –
Vegas win total: 11.5 juiced to the under -120
2024 Wins: 15
Pythagorean Wins: 10.20
Schedule: Hard – at large vs Baltimore, vs Detroit, @ Buffalo
Schedule Last Year: Hard
Key losses: G Joe Thuney, DT Tershawn Wharton, S Justin Reid, WR DeAndre Hopkins, WR Justin Watson, OLB Joshua Uche, RB Samaje Perine, WR Mecole Hardman.
Key additions: T Jaylon Moore, CB Kristian Fulton, DE Charles Omenihu, RB Elijah Mitchell.
Key draft picks: T Josh Simmons, DL Omarr Noman-Lott, CB Nohl Williams.
Summary: Last season, the Chiefs did things what the Chiefs do best. They win games, and they get to super bowls. It’s hard to quantify what has been happening with this team, because on paper, they look just a bit above average. Great playmakers, great coaching, and a ton of NFL love gets them where they need to be. The Chief’s “luck” ranking last season from teamrankings.com was easily the highest in NFL history at 5.2. The Vikings were second at 3.2 which would have gotten them number one many of the other years. The formula to bet the Chiefs is to take them when they are short favorites or short dogs, but fade them when they are a large favorite against the bad teams in the NFL. Last season’s Kansas City team should have lost outright to the Falcons and the Panthers, while they didn’t sniff the cover. Last season, this Chiefs team only ranked 9th on EPA on offense, and 15th in EPA on defense. They should have not won 15 games and their Pythagorean win total discrepancy is massive as they should have won closer to 10 games. This number doesn’t even include the fact that they tanked their final regular season game. This Chiefs team is getting older in their key areas. Tight End Travis Kelce took a large step back last season. Quarterback Patrick Mahomes, may not be considered old yet, but maybe the finer things in life may have gotten to him some, and his competitiveness could take a hit. I While I am not sure that will happen, I still think that, right now, Mahomes is the best quarterback in the NFL. Bills quarterback Josh Allen is the best playmaker in the NFL. Lamar is right there too. The good news for Kansas City this coming season is that they are attempting to fix their offensive line. They lost some pieces over the years, but they were able to draft an Ohio State guy and pick up Jaylon Moore in free agency. The receiving crew should be fine with a healthy Hollywood Brown and rookie sensation Xavier Worthy leading the way. I expect Noah Gray to steal some of Kelce’s tight end reps this season as well for all of you fantasy gurus. The only direction that I can go with this Chiefs team is under 11.5 wins. Regression has to happen sooner than later unless the NFL officials once again give the Chiefs some serious help during crunch time in their games.
My Number: 10.1
Action Under 11.5 wins for 1 star
Kansas City Chiefs Power rating: 3.5
2. Los Angeles Chargers –
Vegas win total: 9.5
2024 Wins: 11
Pythagorean Wins: 11.37
Schedule: Medium – at large @Miami, vs Minnesota, vs Pittsburgh
Schedule Last Year: Medium
Key losses – RB JK Dobbins, Edge Joey Bosa, CB Kristian Fulton, WR Josh Palmer, DT Poona Ford, LB Nick Niemann, DE Morgan Fox.
Key additions: G Mekhi Becton, CB Donte Jackson, RB Najee Harris, WR Mike Williams, TE Tyler Conklin, CB Benjamin St-Juste.
Key draft picks: RB Omarion Hampton, WR Tre Harris, DL Mamaree Caldwell, Edge Kyle Kennard.
Summary: Jim Harbaugh doing Jim Harbaugh things. Going from five to eleven wins is quite something, and if it wasn’t for KOC, Jim might have gotten the coach of the year. In saying that, there aren’t many coaches that I trust more than Harbaugh. Jim and his philosophy instills belief in his guys. If Harbaugh is about one thing, it’s about the trenches. He loves his big men and I do too. Notice how the Chargers let JK Dobbins walk after having a great year that was barely hindered by injuries. This team instead signs Najee Harris which should be an upgrade. Drafting Omarion Hampton basically tells us all that they are a run focused team who will pass the ball when needed. I do not see a large problem shedding Joey Bosa, as it was hard enough just to keep the guy healthy and on the field enough to make a seasonal impact. I do like the addition of guard Mekhi Becton, and tight end Tyler Conklin. The Chargers are building a team that will want to punch you in the mouth. I expect that they will run clock and keep some low scores. Last season, the Bolts ranked 12th in offensive EPA and 5th on defense. This season, they have a winnable schedule, and Jim will do it his way. I think the Chargers win this division.
My Number: 11.19 wins
Action – Chargers to win AFC West +300 – .5 stars (FD) – Chargers over 9.5 wins +105 – 1 star (FD)
Las Angeles Chargers Power Rating: 2.75
3. Denver Broncos –
Vegas win total: 9.5
2024 Wins: 10
Pythagorean Wins: 11.61
Schedule: Medium – at large vs Cincinnati, vs NY Jets (game in London) , vs Green Bay
Schedule Last Year: Medium Easy
Key losses: LB Cody Barton, QB Zach Wilson, CB Tremon Smith, RB Javonte Williams.
Key additions: S Talanoa Hufanga, LB Dre Greenlaw, TE Evan Engram.
Key draft picks: CB Jahdae Barron, RB RJ Harvey, WR Pat Bryant, Edge Sai’vion Jones, Edge Quandarrius Robinson.
Summary: The Broncos kicked ass last season, and the improvement that we saw was due to good free agency moves, as well as drafting well with rookie quarterback Bo Nix exceeding expectations. Solid coaching also played a part with Sean Payton. I really want to pick this Broncos team apart as I somewhat believe that this team was just very fortunate, but their Pythagorean win total states that they underachieved. This is really a head scratcher if you ask me. This Broncos team had the best EPA per play defense in the league! The offense ranked a modest 16th in EPA. I have to give them a ton of credit for that as well. So what is going on then? Well, looking a bit deeper into last year’s schedule, this team beat a bunch of tomato cans. Their last game against the Chiefs was against their third string where the broncos won 38-0. The Broncos best (real) win last year was at Tampa Bay on week 3. Otherwise, this Broncos team lost every game that they played against a team that finished .500 or better. The good news for Denver is that they still have Bo Nix on a rookie deal. They were able to go out and pay for some good playmakers, and fill in some holes. Now for some negatives. I am not a big fan of their receiving core on this team. Courtland Sutton is really the only guy to be worried about. Losing running back Javonte Williams was also a head scratcher to me as I thought that he was very good for them. Is a sophomore slump coming for quarterback Bo Nix? Nothing would surprise me with this team. If the Broncos win the division, I would not be surprised. If they take last place, I would not be surprised. In saying that, I think that the Broncos will compete for the division. I think a good strategy is to play on the Chargers, and the Broncos for the division to fade the Chiefs. Good numbers to be had.
My number: 9.81
Action – Lean over, Broncos to win AFC West +300 – .5 stars
Denver Broncos Power Rating: 1.75
4. Las Vegas Raiders –
Vegas win total: 6.5 juiced to the over -145
2024 Wins: 4
Pythagorean Wins: 5.14
Schedule: Medium – at large @ New England, vs Chicago, vs Cleveland
Schedule Last Year: Medium
Key losses: Coach Antonio Pierce, S Trevon Moehrig, CB Nate Hobbs, LB Robert Spillane, LB Divine Deablo, LB K’Laveon Chaisson, S Marcus Epps, G Cody Whitehair, T Andrus Peat.
Key additions: 10% owner Tom Brady, Coach Pete Carrol, QB Geno Smith, S Jeremy Chinn, G Alex Cappa, CB Eric Stokes, OLB Elandon Roberts, CB Lonnie Johnson, RB Raheem Mostert, TE Ian Thomas, DT Leki Fotu.
Key draft picks: RB Ashton Jeanty, WR Jack Bech, CB Darien Porter, G Caleb Rogers, T Charles Grant.
Summary: Another year, another new head coach for the Raiders. This team unfortunately has transient syndrome, where the fans of other teams outnumber their own fans at their home stadium in Las Vegas. The strange thing for this Raiders team is that quarterback Geno Smith comes with his old mentor head coach Pete Carrol. As much as an upgrade this is over Aiden O’Connell, it’s still not going to get them to the dance. The Raiders were kind of a weird team last season. They would meddle in some games as they beat teams like the Ravens, and kept both Chiefs games within seven. Las Vegas almost beat the Chiefs again last season on the Friday after Thanksgiving, but there was just not enough playmakers to get the job done. Ex head coach Antonio Pearce took a ton of the blame for the locker room issues, but I also do not think that Pierce had much of a chance for success as he didn’t have any good players. During 2024, the Raiders actually had a half way decent defense ranking 14th in EPA. It was that dreadful offense that set them back ranking 31st in EPA. For 2025, we have to upgrade them some due to a proven quarterback, and a winning coach. I just don’t think that we can go overboard here. The Raiders should be more competitive, but not enough to contest for this division.
My Number: 7.58 wins
Action – Lean over
Las Vegas Raiders Power Rating: -3
*Blue means not signed or picked up by an NFL team
