It is the most wonderful time of the year. I do not mean the Holidays; I mean Bowl Season! Throw most records out the window and dive into transfer portal and opt-out news as these will be the most important thing when into betting bowl games. As lines have already begun to move, it might be in our best interest to be patient before making any bets. I will break down each game and give the bets I am looking to make. Be sure to double-check availability reports before making wagers to ensure you are betting on a team that the players are showing up for.
- Salute to Veterans Bowl: Troy Trojans (8-5, 6-2 Sun Belt) vs Jacksonville State Gamecocks (8-5, 7-1 CUSA)
Location: Montgomery, AL
Date, Time, Channel: December 16th, 9:00 PM/EST, ESPN
Weather: 40 degrees, Wind 0.5 MPH, Partly Cloudy
ATS Trends: Troy (9-4, 3-2 Favorite), (Jax ST 6-7, 5-4 Underdog)
Key Matchups: Jax St Rush Offense (4th YPG nationally) vs Troy rush defense (112th YPG nationally); Troy Pass Offense (221.3 YPG) vs Jax ST Pass Defense (251.1 YPG)
Key opt outs: Troy: Starting RB Tae Meadows, Possibly Starting QB Goose Crowder (Injury)
Line: Open: Troy: -3 Current: Troy: -2.5
Analysis: I do not have a great feel on this one as both teams had easy schedules, Troy was 96th and Jax St was 126th in strength of schedule. Before the bowl matchups being announced I wanted to fade all the Conference USA teams, however this a great matchup for the Gamecocks and the nation’s leading rusher Cam Cook. There is a lot of uncertainty in what we will be getting from the Trojans offense as Goose Crowder has been in and out of games all season long and his status for this game remains uncertain. I have not made to the window on this one and at this point I am leaning more towards the Gamecocks anticipating a big game from Cam Cook.
Pick: Lean Jax ST (+2.5)
- Cure Bowl: Old Dominon Monarchs (9-3, 6-2 Sun Belt) vs South Florida Bulls (9-3, 6-2 American)
Location: Orlando, FL
Date, Time, Channel: December 17th, 5:00 PM/EST, ESPN
Weather: 69 degrees, 6.5 MPH, Partly Cloudy
ATS Trends: ODU (7-5, 2-1 Underdog) USF (9-3,5-2-1 Favorite)
Key Matchups: ODU Rushing (Offense: 7th YPG Nationally Defense: 65th) vs USF Rush (Offense:10th YPG Nationally Defense: 46th).
Key opt outs: ODU: Starting QB Colton Joseph USF: Starting QB Byrum Brown
Line: Open: USF -7.5 Current: USF -3.5
Analysis: Throughout most of the year the Bulls were the favorite to be the group of five representative in the Playoff. It must be a real gut punch seeing two group of 5 teams in the playoffs as they head east a couple of hours to play in the Cure bowl. In addition to Byrum Brown sitting this one out the some of the Bulls top receivers Chas Nimrod and Christian Neptune have been injured the last few weeks so I cannot imagine we see either of them playing in this one. Hence why my key matchups were the team’s rushing efficiencies as both starting Quarterbacks will not be participating. This is one to watch for additional opt-outs as a lot of the USF staff have bailed to Auburn. The Bulls do not seem to have much to play for or many coaches left to play for as opposed to the Monarchs who should be much more motivated to play in any bowl game. ODU certainly had a few stinkers this year but, when they played up in competition, they certainly stepped up keeping it close against Indiana and destroying Virginia Tech. I have bet this one even though I am not getting the best of the number.
Pick: Old Dominion (+3.5)
- 68 Ventures Bowl: Louisiana Ragin’ Cajuns (6-6,5-3 Sun Belt) vs Delaware Blue Hens (6-6, 4-4)
Location: Mobile, AL
Date, Time, Channel: December 17th, 8:30 PM/EST, ESPN
Weather: 58 degrees, Wind 5.4 MPH, Partly Cloudy
ATS Trends: ULL (6-6,1-3 Favorite) DEL (4-7-1,3-2-1 Underdog)
Key Matchups: UL Rush Offense (29th YPG nationally) vs DEL Rush Defense (89th YPG nationally). DEL Pass offense (6th YPG nationally) vs UL Defense (87th YPG nationally)
Key opt outs: N/A
Line: Open: ULL (-3.5) Current (-3)
Analysis: It is worth mentioning this is Delaware’s first bowl game since they made their move to FBS this season. I just do not know how much trust we put into any Conference USA team,Our second of three Sunbelt vs Conference USA matchups. If three is not enough, do not worry, we will have more next week. Both teams needed a win in their final game to reach bowl eligibility with the Blue Hens needing some teams opting out to make their way to bowl season. The Ragin’ Cajuns got a little hot down the stretch winning their last four games. They did not stop anyone, but they did out score them. The Blue Hens have been an up and down team all year. You cannot really count on their defense, but you can count on the offense. The over might be another good look here it has just begun to run up on us a bit. I am leaning towards the hot hand in the Ragin’ Cajun keep an eye on their starting QB. If Lunch Winfield does not play it is a stay away.
Pick: Lean UL (-3)
- Xbox Bowl: Missouri State Bears (7-5, 5-3 CUSA) vs Arkansas State Red Wolves (6-6, 5-3 Sun Belt)
Location: Frisco, TX
Date, Time, Channel: December 18th, 9:00 PM/EST, ESPN 2
Weather: 48 degrees, Wind 4.5 MPH, Overcast
ATS Trends: MOST (7-5, 3-3 Underdog), ARKST (7-4-1, 2-2 Favorite)
Key Matchups: MOST passing offense (22nd YPG nationally) vs ARKST Passing Defense (99th YPG nationally). ARKST Passing Offense (35th YPG nationally) vs MOST Pass Defense (75th YPG nationally)
Key opt outs: N/A
Line: Open: ARKST (-2.5) Current: ARKST (-1.5)
Analysis: Just what I was hoping for this week, another Sun belt vs Conference USA matchup. What are the chances that both teams are .500 against the spread from their respective positions? We can expect that both veteran quarterbacks in this one Jacob Clark for the Bears and Jaylen Raynor for the Red Wolves should have huge games. I should get my sanity checked because I am leaning toward the Conference USA team in this one. The Red Wolves have had so many lucky wins this year including three one-point wins. The Bears, like the Blue Hens, are in the first year in FBS, which I believe adds motivation along with this being their Senior quarterback’s final game. The hook might matter in this one.
Pick: Missouri State +1.5
- Myrtle Beach Bowl: Kennesaw State Owls (10-3, 7-1 CUSA) vs Western Michigan Broncos (9-4, 7-1 MAC)
Location: Conway, SC
Date, Time, Channel: December 19th, 11:00 AM/EST, ESPN
Weather: 60 degrees, Wind of 9.2 MPH, Clear
ATS Trends: KSU (8-4-, 3-1 Underdog) WMU (9-3-1, 6-1-1 Favorite)
Key Matchups: KSU passing offense (51st YPG nationally) vs WMU Passing Defense (18th nationally passing YPG). KSU Rush Defense (103rd nationally rushing YPG) vs WMU rushing offense (22nd nationally rushing YPG)
Key opt outs: WMU: Could opt out, if he does, we could get a better number DE Nadame Tucker (MAC Defensive Player of the Year)
Line: Opening/Current: WMU (-4)
Analysis: The champions of the worst two FBS conferences in America square off in Conway, SC. Nadame Tucker being out for the Broncos is a huge blow but, I still see this as a bad matchup for the Owls. The Owls live and die with the deep ball and even with Tucker out the Broncos D should be able to slow them down just enough. On the other side of the ball the Owls do not offer much resistance for the Broncos running game who just went wild in the MAC championship. I like the Broncos here to prove the MAC is not the worst conference in America.
Pick: Western Michigan (-4)
- Gasparilla Bowl: Memphis Tigers vs North Carolina State Wolfpack
Location: Tampa, FL
Date, Time, Channel: December 19th, 2:30 PM/EST, ESPN
Weather: 75 degrees, Wind 6.5 MPH, Partly Cloudy 7% chance of rain
ATS Trends: MEM (8-4, 2-1 Underdog), NCST (6-6, 4-2 Favorite)
Key Matchups: MEM Pass offense (61st Nationally YPG) vs NC ST Pass Defense (134th Nationally YPG). MEM pass defense (84th nationally YPG) vs NC ST Pass Offense (48th nationally YPG)
Key opt outs: None confirmed yet, there could be several players on NC State and Memphis.
Line: Opening: NCST (-4.5) Current: NCST (-5.5)
Analysis: Who knows what the hell we will get in this one. Memphis is another team who aspired to be a playoff berth that will be playing in a bowl game without their Head Coach. The only thing we could anticipate is that we see both teams have the starting quarterback behind center. I do not feel good about either side of this one. I would lean toward NC State but, every time I bet against the Tigers Brendon Lewis somehow looks fully healthy when he has been battling an ankle injury for weeks. The over of 57.5 might be a look here, hard to know what to do with the Memphis coaching situation.
Pick: Lean NC ST (-5.5)
In summary I am betting on ODU (+3.5), MOST (+1.5), and WMU (+4) with leans on Jax State, UL and NC State depending on injury/opt-out news.
