🍺 Weekly Recap
Best bets had their best run of the season last week, going 3–0 and pushing the overall record to 7–4–1. A few things we can take from last week that will help us going forward:
Georgia State might be a wagon. They blew the doors off Old Dominion, and on the flip side, ODU might be DOA. Once they get shoved off script, they don’t have much else.
I said it a few weeks ago: USF is an auto‑fade as a favorite (and sometimes even as a dog). They cannot get separation and keep inferior teams hanging around, even when they clearly have a talent edge.
Cincinnati was a little overvalued. If they run into a team that can stop the run, they don’t have much else. They’re limited when forced out of their comfort zone, and that’s something we can continue to exploit.
The Arizona heat is still a betting angle. Early‑season desert conditions are brutal, and teams flying in from cooler climates are struggling with it. We can keep taking advantage of that for at least a few more weeks.
🔥 Best Bets
UCF Knights (3-2) at Oklahoma State Cowboys (3-1)
Location: Boone Pickens Stadium, Stillwater, OK
Date: Saturday, October 10, 2026
Time: 12:00 PM ET
Channel: ESPN2
Opening Line: Oklahoma State -9.5
Current Line: Oklahoma State -10.5
Analysis:
I can’t get my power ratings anywhere near this number, but UCF feels like a prime candidate to simply wear out and get blown out. They’ve played two straight slugfests, this is their second road game in a row, and they haven’t faced an offense remotely as explosive as Oklahoma State’s.
The Pokes come in fresh off a bye after an impressive win on the country road against West Virginia, and that rest advantage matters. Oklahoma State should be able to dictate pace, lean on their tempo, and force a tired UCF defense into mistakes. Add in the fact that the Knights are rolling in with a backup quarterback, and this sets up as a spot where they’re just hanging on.
UCF looks like a team desperately in need of a bye week to regroup, and Oklahoma State is the wrong opponent to run into while you’re running on fumes.
Pick: Oklahoma State -10.5
Central Michigan Chippewas (3-2) at Ohio Bobcats (3-2)
Location: Peden Stadium, Athens, OH
Date: Saturday, October 10, 2026
Time: 1:00 PM ET
Channel: ESPN+
Opening Line: Ohio -3.5
Current Line: Ohio -2.5
Analysis: This line has bounced around a bit — 3.5 is drawing CMU money, and 2.5 is taking Ohio money. Neither of these teams is particularly good, but CMU has benefited from playing two of the worst teams in the Group of Six in Wyoming and Akron. That’s inflated their profile more than anything they’ve actually earned.
Ohio should be getting starting QB Nick Poulos back, and even if they don’t, they’ve already shown they can win games with the backup. I’m not buying CMU as any kind of MAC contender, and I’m not convinced they can hold up against a team that actually has a pulse.
Ohio has a 15‑game home winning streak, and I’m riding with the Bobcats -3 or better in a spot where they’re simply the more trustworthy side.
Pick: Ohio -2.5
Hawaii Rainbow Warriors (2-3) at Arizona State Sun Devils (3-2)
Location: Mountain America Stadium, Tempe, AZ
Date: Saturday, October 10, 2026
Time: 10:00 PM ET
Channel: FS1
Opening Line: Arizona State -17.5
Current Line: Arizona State -20.5
Analysis: Hawaii has had a terribly disappointing year so far, and I don’t see it getting any better. They’re beat up, they’re dragging, and now they head to the mainland for a late non‑conference game against Arizona State. It’s 90 degrees at night, the travel is brutal, and Hawaii doesn’t have much to play for at this point.
Arizona State, meanwhile, is in full get‑right mode. Kenny Dillingham was furious with how his team performed last week, and this feels like the spot where a frustrated coach takes it out on an overmatched opponent.
This sets up as a game where ASU simply puts it to Hawaii and never looks back.
Pick: Arizona State -20.5
For more betting information from your’s truly follow me @BetAndrewClarke on X
