We have a great show for you today! Kiev O’Neil goes solo to preview the BIG 10 for some college hoops action! We talk ATS and O/U Records, returning players, transfers, rookies and more. Should you have any questions for the podcast, or games that you want us to cap during our shows, please message us at Info@TheOddsBreakers.com. Have a wonderful week!
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Most casual racing fans know about the Triple Crown and the pageantry and prestige that surrounds three Saturdays in late spring. Full time fans and bettors know the best action of the year with the strongest fields happen at The Breeder’s Cup. The event returns to Del Mar for the 41st Edition
Races start at 12:05 Central time, and I am including picks for all 12 races on the card, The Breeders’ Cup races are numbers 4-11. The weather looks great and it should be a fast track this afternoon at Del Mar. I’ll give you my pick to win and at least my top 4 for each race. How you build those Exacts, Trifectas and Multi-Race bets is up to you. Let’s go!
Race 1 Allowance/Claiming – 1 1/16 Miles (Turf)– Purse: $40,000 – Post Time: 12:05 CDT
Win: 4 No Secret
Top 4 if playing Exotics 4-9-2-7
Race 2 Bayakoa Stakes-Grade III 1 Mile (Dirt) Purse: $200,000 Post Time – 12:40 CDT
Win: 4 Alpha Bella
Top 4 if playing Exotics 4-3-7-6
Race 3 Goldikova Stakes – Grade III – 1 Mile (Turf) – Purse: $300,000 Post Time: 1:15 CDT
Win: 2 Sacred Wish
Top 4 if playing Exotics 2-4-9-8
Race 4 – PNC Bank Breeders’ Cup Filly And Mare Sprint – Grade I – 7 Furlongs (DIRT) – Purse: $1,000,000 – Post Time 2:00 CDT
Win: 2 One Magic Philly
Top 4 If Playing Exotics 2-9-6-10
Race 5 Prevagen Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint – Grade I – 5 Furlongs (TURF) – Purse: $1,000,000 – Post Time: – 2:41 CDT
Win: 5 Ag Bullet
Top 4 If Playing Exotics 5-9-2-6
Race 6 The Longines Breeders’ Cup Distaff – Grade I – 1 1/8 Miles (Dirt) – Purse $2,000,000 Post Time 3:21 CDT
Win: 2 Thorpedo Anna
Top 4 If Playing Exotics – 2-5-1-7
Race 7 The Longines Breeders’ Cup Turf – Grade I – 1 1/2 Miles (TURF) – Purse: $,5000,000 Post Time: 4:01 CDT
Win: 11 Rebel’s Romance
Top 4 If playing Exotics – 11-6-10-2
Race 8 The Longines Breeders’ Cup Classic – Grade I -1 1/4 Miles (Dirt) Purse $7,000,000 – Post Time 4:41 CDT
Win: 14 Next
Top 4 If Playing Exotics -14-3-6-11
Race 9 The Maker’s Mark Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Turf – Grade I – 1 3/8 Miles (TURF) – Purse: $2,000,000 Post Time: 5:25 CDT
Win: 3 Cinderella’s Dream
Top 4 If Playing Exotics 3-4-2-7
Race 10 Cygames Breeders’ Cup Sprint – Grade I – 6 Furlongs (Dirt) – Purse: $2,000,000 Post Time 6:05 CDT
Win: 9 Remake
Top 4 If Playing Exotics 9-4-3-8
Race 11 The Fanduel Breeders’ Cup Mile Presented By PDJF – Grade I – 1 Mile (Turf) – Purse: $2,000,000 Post Time: 6:45CDT
Win: 6 Notable Speech
Top 4 If Playing Exotics 6-1-4-8
Race 12 The Big Ass Fans Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile – Grade I – 1 Mile (Dirt) – Purse: $1,000,000 Post Time: 7:25 CDT
MIAMI, FLORIDA - NOVEMBER 06: Tyler Herro #14 and Jimmy Butler #22 of the Miami Heat look on against the Utah Jazz during the fourth quarter at FTX Arena on November 06, 2021 in Miami, Florida.
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The Breeders’ Cup World Championships is one of the most prestigious events in horse racing, bringing together the world’s top thoroughbreds, trainers, and jockeys for two days of thrilling competition. Held annually at premier racetracks across North America, the Breeders’ Cup showcases elite talent across a range of distances, surfaces, and divisions.
In 2007, the Breeders’ Cup was expanded from one day to two. Now, the first day of the weekend is called Future Stars Friday, with many of racing’s most promising colts and fillies running on the dirt and the turf. The top finishers of these races usually shape the Road to the Kentucky Derby and may feature the following year’s contenders for the Run for the Roses.
Championship Saturday will give out more than $23 million in purse money over nine races, including the $7 million Longines Breeders’ Cup Classic, which is the centerpiece race of the weekend.
This year’s Breeders’ Cup World Championships will take place at Del Mar Thoroughbred Club in Del Mar, California. This is the second consecutive year that Del Mar will play host to this event marking the first time the event has been held in consecutive years at a single location since Santa Anita held the event in 2012, 2013, and 2014.
Race Schedule & Information:
Race #
Post Time (ET)
Grade
Distance
Race Name
Purse
TV Information
1
1:05 PM
–
1 1/16 Miles
Allowance Optional Claiming
$150,000
FanDuel TV
2
1:40 PM
Grade 3
1 Mile
Bayakoa Stakes
$200,000
FanDuel TV
3
2:15 PM
Grade 3
1 Mile
Goldikova Stakes
$300,000
USA, Peacock, FanDuel TV
4
3:00 PM
Grade 1
7 Furlongs
Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Sprint
$1,000,000
USA, Peacock, FanDuel TV
5
3:41 PM
Grade 1
5 Furlongs
Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint
$1,000,000
NBC, Peacock, FanDuel TV
6
4:21 PM
Grade 1
1 1/8 Miles
Breeders’ Cup Distaff
$2,000,000
NBC, Peacock, FanDuel TV
7
5:01 PM
Grade 1
1 1/2 Miles
Breeders’ Cup Turf
$5,000,000
NBC, Peacock, FanDuel TV
8
5:41 PM
Grade 1
1 1/4 Miles
Breeders’ Cup Classic
$7,000,000
NBC, Peacock
9
6:25 PM
Grade 1
1 3/8 Miles
Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Turf
$2,000,000
USA, Peacock, FanDuel TV
10
7:05 PM
Grade 1
6 Furlongs
Breeders’ Cup Sprint
$2,000,000
USA, Peacock, FanDuel TV
11
7:45 PM
Grade 1
1 Mile
Breeders’ Cup Mile
$2,000,000
USA, Peacock, FanDuel TV
12
8:25 PM
Grade 1
1 Mile
Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile
$1,000,000
Peacock, FanDuel TV
Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Sprint
Race Description:
The Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Sprint is run around one turn at 7 furlongs for the fastest females, three years old and older, competing for a purse of $1 million. The Filly & Mare Sprint serves as North America’s richest race for female sprinters and often decides the champion in this division each year.
Race Information:
Race: 4
Post Time: 3:00 PM ET
Event Grade: Grade 1
Length: 7 Furlongs
Purse: $1,000,000
Division: Fillies And Mares | Three Years Old and Upward
Surface: Dirt
Wagers: Exacta, Trifecta, Superfecta, Pick 3 (Races 4-6), Daily Double, Pick 5 (Races 4-8), Super High 5
Field:
Post Position
Horse
A/S
Weight
Jockey
Trainer
Morning Line (ML) Odds
1
Frost At Dawn
3/F
122
Lanfranco Dettori
William Knight
30-1
2
One Magic Philly
3/F
122
Antonio Fresu
Philip D’Amato
10-1
3
Pleasant
4/F
124
Juan J. Hernandez
Bob Baffert
12-1
4
Vahva
4/F
124
Irad Ortiz, Jr.
Cherie DeVaux
4-1
5
Pandora’s Gift
3/F
122
Umberto Rispoli
Stuart C. Williams
30-1
6
Society
5/M
124
Tyler Gaffalione
Steven M. Asmussen
3-1
7
Zeitlos
4/F
124
Jose L. Ortiz
Steven M. Asmussen
6-1
8
Soul of an Angel
5/M
124
Drayden Van Dyke
Saffie A. Joseph, Jr.
12-1
9
Ways and Means
3/F
122
Flavien Prat
Chad C. Brown
5-2
10
Scylla
4/F
124
Mike E. Smith
William I. Mott
10-1
Picks:
WIN: (9) Ways and Means
EXACTA BOX: (9) Ways and Means, (10) Scylla, (4) Vahva
Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint
Race Description:
The Prevagen Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint, for male and female horses three-years of age and older, combines both speed and agility for international competitors at 5 furlongs on the turf course.
Race Information:
Race: 5
Post Time: 3:41 PM ET
Event Grade: Grade 1
Length: 5 Furlongs
Purse: $1,000,000
Division: Open | Three Years Old and Upward
Surface: Turf
Wagers: Exacta, Trifecta, Superfecta, Pick 3 (Races 5-7), Daily Double, Pick 4 (Races 5-8), All Turf Pick 4 (Races 5, 7, 9, 11), Super High 5
Field:
Post Position
Horse
A/S
Weight
Jockey
Trainer
Morning Line (ML) Odds
1
Believing
4/F
123
William Knight
George Boughey
12-1
2
Motorious
6/G
126
Antonio Fresu
Philip D’Amato
8-1
3
Arzak
6/H
126
Joel Rosario
Michael J. Trombetta
30-1
4
Starlust
3/C
124
Rossa Ryan
Ralph Beckett
30-1
5
Ag Bullet
4/F
123
Umberto Rispoli
Richard Baltas
10-1
6
Star of Mystery
3/F
121
William Buick
Charles Appleby
10-1
7
Howard Wolowitz
3/C
124
Flavien Prat
Jose Francisco D’Angelo
30-1
8
Big Invasion
5/H
126
Lanfranco Dettori
Christophe Clement
20-1
9
Cogburn
5/H
126
Irad Ortiz, Jr.
Steven M. Asmussen
7-5
10
Isivunguvungu
6/G
126
Manuel Franco
H. Graham Motion
20-1
11
Big Evs
3/C
124
Tom Marquand
Michael Appleby
12-1
12
Bradsell
4/C
126
Hollie Doyle
Archie Watson
7-2
13 (AE)
Nothing Better
7/G
126
Paco Lopez
Jorge Duarte, Jr.
30-1
14 (AE)
Charcoal
8/G
126
Axel Concepcion
Tracey J. Wisner
30-1
15 (AE)
Frost at Dawn
3/F
121
Billy Loughnane
William Knight
30-1
Picks:
WIN: (9) Cogburn
EXACTA: (9) Cogburn / (5) Ag Bullet, (11) Big Evs, (12) Bradsell
Breeders’ Cup Distaff
Race Description:
The Longines Breeders’ Cup Distaff brings together the best female dirt horses for a championship showdown at 1 1/8 miles on the main track. The race is open to three-year old and older females, who compete for a purse of $2 million.
Race Information:
Race: 6
Post Time: 4:21 PM ET
Event Grade: Grade 1
Length: 1 1/8 Miles
Purse: $2,000,000
Division: Fillies And Mares | Three Years Old and Upward
Surface: Dirt
Wagers: Exacta, Trifecta, Superfecta, Pick 3 (Races 6-8), Daily Double, Special Daily Double (Races 6 And 8), Pick 4 (Races 6-9), All Dirt Pick 4 (Races 6, 8, 10, 12), Super High 5
Field:
Post Position
Horse
A/S
Weight
Jockey
Trainer
Morning Line (ML) Odds
1
Candied
3/F
121
Irad Ortiz, Jr.
Todd A. Pletcher
15-1
2
Thorpedo Anna
3/F
121
Brian Joseph Hernandez, Jr.
Kenneth G. McPeek
4-5
3
Batucada
4/F
124
Ricardo Santana, Jr.
Saffie A. Joseph, Jr.
20-1
4
Alice Verite
4/F
124
Kyle Frey
Kazuya Nakatake
30-1
5
Sugar Fish
3/F
121
Tyler Baze
Jeff Mullins
20-1
6
Raging Sea
4/F
124
Flavien Prat
Chad C. Brown
7-2
7
Honor D Lady
4/F
124
Tyler Gaffalione
Saffie A. Joseph, Jr.
30-1
8
Miss New York
4/F
124
Umberto Rispoli
Jorge Delgado
20-1
9
Awesome Result
4/F
124
Yutaka Take
Yasutoshi Ikee
4-1
10
Che Evasora
6/M
124
Tiago Josue Pereira
Philip D’Amato
30-1
Picks:
WIN: (9) Awesome Result
Breeders’ Cup Turf
Race Description:
The Longines Breeders’ Cup Turf is run at 1 ½ miles on the turf course, for male and female horses three-years-old and older. The longest race of the World Championships, the Turf annually attracts the top grass talent from Europe and North America to compete for a $5 million purse in a demanding test of both speed and strength. The Breeders’ Cup Turf is limited to 14 starters.
Every sport has a definitive year-ending event to crown its champions. In Thoroughbred racing, the Breeders’ Cup World Championships is the culmination of the horse racing season worldwide, and the $7 million Longines Breeders’ Cup Classic is the defining race of this international event. The Longines Breeders’ Cup Classic, run at 1 1/4 miles on the dirt track, draws the top international Thoroughbreds, including winners of the Triple Crown races, year after year. It is open to male and female horses three-years old and older, and is limited to 14 starters.
Race Information:
Race: 8
Post Time: 5:41 PM ET
Event Grade: Grade 1
Length: 1 1/4 Miles
Purse: $7,000,000
Division: Open | Three Years Old and Upward
Surface: Dirt
Wagers: Exacta, Trifecta, Superfecta, Pick 3 (Races 8-10), Daily Double, Pick 5 (Races 8-12), Super High 5
Field:
Post Position
Horse
A/S
Weight
Jockey
Trainer
Morning Line (ML) Odds
1
Forever Young
3/C
122
Ryusei Sakai
Yoshito Yahagi
6-1
2
Highland Falls
4/C
126
Luis Saez
Brad H. Cox
20-1
3
City of Troy
3/C
122
Ryan L. Moore
Aidan P. O’Brien
5-2
4
Mixto
4/C
126
Kyle Frey
Doug F. O’Neill
30-1
5
Senor Buscador
6/H
126
Joel Rosario
Todd W. Fincher
30-1
6
Derma Sotogake
4/C
126
Christophe Lemaire
Hidetaka Otonashi
20-1
7
Ushba Tesoro
7/H
126
Yuga Kawada
Noboru Takagi
12-1
8
Pyrenees
4/C
126
Brian Joseph Hernandez, Jr.
Cherie DeVaux
30-1
9
Fierceness
3/C
122
John R. Velazquez
Todd A. Pletcher
3-1
10
Tapit Trice
4/C
126
Irad Ortiz, Jr.
Todd A. Pletcher
30-1
11
Sierra Leone
3/C
122
Flavien Prat
Chad C. Brown
12-1
12
Arthur’s Ride
4/C
126
Junior Alvarado
William I. Mott
15-1
13
Newgate
4/C
126
Lanfranco Dettori
Bob Baffert
20-1
14
Next
6/G
126
Luan Machado
William I. Mott
8-1
15 (AE)
Rattle N Roll
5/H
126
Jose L. Ortiz
Kenneth G. McPeek
30-1
Picks:
WIN: (3) City of Troy, (14) Next
EXACTA: (3) City of Troy, (14) Next / (1) Forever Young, (3) City of Troy, (9) Fierceness, (10) Tapit Trice, (11) Sierra Leone, (14) Next
Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Turf
Race Description:
The world’s best female grass horses compete in the Maker’s Mark Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Turf. This race is contested around two turns on the turf course for a $2 million purse.
Race Information:
Race: 9
Post Time: 6:25 PM ET
Event Grade: Grade 1
Length: 1 3/8 Miles
Purse: $2,000,000
Division: Fillies And Mares | Three Years Old and Upward
Surface: Turf
Wagers: Exacta, Trifecta, Superfecta, Pick 3 (Races 9-11), Daily Double, Pick 4 (Races 9-12), Super High 5
Field:
Post Position
Horse
A/S
Weight
Jockey
Trainer
Morning Line (ML) Odds
1
Beautiful Love
3/F
120
Oisin Murphy
Charles Appleby
20-1
2
Full Count Felicia
5/M
124
Irad Ortiz, Jr.
Kevin Attard
12-1
3
Cinderella’s Dream
3/F
120
William Buick
Charles Appleby
4-1
4
War Like Goddess
7/M
124
Junior Alvarado
William I. Mott
5-2
5
Didia
6/M
124
Jose L. Ortiz
Ignacio Correas IV
12-1
6
Ylang Ylang
3/F
120
Ryan L. Moore
Aidan P. O’Brien
10-1
7
Content
3/F
120
Lanfranco Dettori
Aidan P. O’Brien
6-1
8
Hang the Moon
4/F
124
Kazushi Kimura
Philip D’Amato
10-1
9
Anisette
4/F
124
Umberto Rispoli
Leonard Powell
15-1
10
Moira
5/M
124
Flavien Prat
Kevin Attard
8-1
11
Beach Bomb
4/F
124
Antonio Fresu
H. Graham Motion
20-1
12
Soprano
3/F
120
Billy Loughnane
George Boughey
20-1
13
Sunset Glory
4/F
124
Manuel Franco
Michael W. McCarthy
30-1
Picks:
WIN: (7) Content, (10) Moira
EXACTA: (7) Content, (10) Moira / (1), Beautiful Love, (4) War Like Goddess, (7) Content, (10) Moira
Breeders’ Cup Sprint
Race Description:
The world’s fastest Thoroughbreds compete in the $2 million Breeders’ Cup Sprint, sometimes achieving incredible speeds of nearly 40 MPH in the stretch. This race is contested at 3/4 of a mile for male and female horses, three years old and older.
Race Information:
Race: 10
Post Time: 7:05 PM ET
Event Grade: Grade 1
Length: 6 Furlongs
Purse: $2,000,000
Division: Open | Three Years Old and Upward
Surface: Dirt
Wagers: Exacta, Trifecta, Superfecta, Pick 3 (Races 10-12), Daily Double, Super High 5
The world’s top grass milers compete in the FanDuel Breeders’ Cup Mile presented by Permanently Disabled Jockeys Fund (PDJF), contested around two turns on the turf course for a purse of $2 million. Open to male and female horses three-years old and older.
Race Information:
Race: 11
Post Time: 7:45 PM ET
Event Grade: Grade 1
Length: 1 Mile
Purse: $2,000,000
Division: Open | Three Years Old and Upward
Surface: Turf
Wagers: Exacta, Trifecta, Superfecta, Daily Double, Super High 5
Field:
Post Position
Horse
A/S
Weight
Jockey
Trainer
Morning Line (ML) Odds
1
Ramatuelle
3/F
120
Aurelien Lemaitre
Christopher Head
5-1
2
Chili Flag
5/M
123
Irad Ortiz, Jr.
Chad C. Brown
20-1
3
Geoglyph
5/H
126
Takeshi Yokoyama
Tetsuya Kimura
20-1
4
Diego Velazquez
3/C
123
Ryan L. Moore
Aidan P. O’Brien
8-1
5
Goliad
7/G
126
Flavien Prat
Richard E. Mandella
20-1
6
Notable Speech
3/C
123
William Buick
Charles Appleby
7-2
7
Porta Fortuna
3/F
120
Tom Marquand
Donnacha O’Brien
4-1
8
More Than Looks
4/C
126
Jose L. Ortiz
Cherie DeVaux
20-1
9
Johannes
4/C
126
Umberto Rispoli
Tim Yakteen
9-2
10
Win for the Money
5/G
126
Patrick Husbands
Mark E. Casse
30-1
11
Ten Happy Rose
6/M
123
Akihide Tsumura
Daisuke Takayanagi
30-1
12
Carl Spackler
4/C
126
Tyler Gaffalione
Chad C. Brown
6-1
Picks:
WIN: (6) Notable Speech
EXACTA BOX: (6) Notable Speech, (7) Porta Fortuna, (12) Carl Spackler
Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile
Race Description:
The Big Ass Fans Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile is a race for males and females three-year-old and older that is contested around two turns on the main track for a purse of $1 million.
Race Information:
Race: 12
Post Time: 8:25 PM ET
Event Grade: Grade 1
Length: 1 Mile
Purse: $1,000,000
Division: Open | Three Years Old and Upward
Surface: Dirt
Wagers: Exacta, Trifecta, Superfecta, Super High 5
Field:
Post Position
Horse
A/S
Weight
Jockey
Trainer
Morning Line (ML) Odds
1
Saudi Crown
4/C
126
Florent Geroux
Brad H. Cox
5-1
2
T O Saint Denis
5/H
126
Ryusei Sakai
Daisuke Takayanagi
30-1
3
Full Serrano
5/H
126
Joel Rosario
John W. Sadler
15-1
4
Katonah
5/G
126
Lanfranco Dettori
Doug F. O’Neill
30-1
5
Three Technique
7/H
126
Rafael Bejarano
Jason G. Cook
30-1
6
Seize the Grey
3/C
123
Jaime A. Torres
D. Wayne Lukas
10-1
7
Tumbarumba
4/G
126
Luis Saez
Brian A. Lynch
30-1
8
Post Time
4/C
126
Sheldon Russell
Brittany T. Russell
12-1
9
Domestic Product
3/C
123
Flavien Prat
Chad C. Brown
7-2
10
Muth
3/C
123
Juan J. Hernandez
Bob Baffert
9-2
11
Cagliostro
4/C
126
Jose L. Ortiz
Cherie DeVaux
30-1
12
Mufasa
5/H
126
Tyler Gaffalione
Ignacio Correas IV
12-1
13
Pipeline
6/H
126
John R. Velazquez
Cherie DeVaux
30-1
14
Skippylongstocking
5/H
126
Irad Ortiz, Jr.
Saffie A. Joseph, Jr.
4-1
Picks:
WIN: (8) Post Time, (9) Domestic Product
EXACTA: (8) Post Time, (9) Domestic Product / (2) T O Saint Denis, (4) Katonah, (8) Post Time, (9) Domestic Product, (11) Cagliostro
Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting. Any feedback whether positive or negative is always encouraged.
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Kiev O'Neil's Sports Betting Stats and Records!
56% 139-109-5 up 22 units in the 2023 NFL Season!
55% 101-82-8 up 10 units in 2024 MLB Thus Far on 8/05/24!
2024 MLB Season 111-93-11 up 8.3U
2023 MLB Season 146-123-7 up 11U
2023/2024 College Basketball up 9U
63% for 2022/2023 NBA sides and totals! 22-13 up 6.5 units. 14% ROI
55% All Time NFL Sides, Teasers, Parlays, Props and Totals! 5.21% ROI
56% 2022/2023 NFL Season 136-109-11 in Sides/Totals/Teasers/Season props up 38.5U
55% All Time College Football Sides, Teasers, Parlays, Props and Totals! 4.75% ROI
63% FOR 2022 COLLEGE BOWL SEASON UP 27 UNITS!
54% Lifetime All Plays in College Basketball 3% ROI
38% Lifetime UFC On All Plays 3% ROI
62% 2022 March Madness College Basketball Plays at 30% ROI!!!
Ole Miss vs Arkansas +7.5 O/U 54
This is an underrated game this week in SEC land. Both teams are trying to keep their conference and playoff hopes alive. Ole Miss is a very good team and the numbers show it. They rank 5th in offensive EPA and 3rd in defensive EPA. A Massive net 3.47 yards per play is number 1 in the nation. It’s a wonder how they have two losses. Arkansas on the other hand might also be better than their record with three losses as they are a positive +1.37 yards per play ranking 24th in offensive EPA and 27th on defense. Looking at pure metrics, one would think that Ole Miss would be the right side in this game, but there is a glaring reason why the number isn’t double digits. The Rebels have had one of the easiest schedule’s in the SEC playing a cake non-conference with only one ranked opponent thus far after nine weeks in college football. Whenever they weren’t playing a tomato can, they struggled losing at LSU by three points, and home against Kentucky also losing by three. Arkansas has played three ranked teams with one big win against Tennessee. Ya know, the team that beat Alabama. Bobby Petrino is doing a very solid job with the Hogs, as they crushed Mississippi State last week by over 30 points, while Ole Miss only out-gained Oklahoma by 51 yards. Over the last 10 games between these two teams, Arkansas is 9-1 against the spread. This team knows how to play the Lane train. Take the hogs. Woo pig sooie!
Arkansas +7.5 – 2.5 stars
Northwestern vs Purdue -1.5 O/U 47
Ok, this game is gross, but I think that there may be some value here. What do you do when two bad teams play each other? You take the points. As bad as Purdue has been, we have to at least acknowledge that they had a pretty good effort at Illinois scoring 49 points a few weeks back. The Boilers have played two top 10 teams this year in Notre Dame and Oregon. Northwestern has only one top 15 game against Indiana where they were bounced 41-24. Looking at net yards per play, these teams are very close with the Wildcats at -.63 and the Boilers at -.71. Purdue ranks 100th in offensive EPA while Northwestern ranks 131st. Another issue is that Northwestern has been without their starting kicker over the past month or so. The backup is just ok making four out of seven. Purdue is coming off their bye week, and I believe they had a lot of time to get some things fixed. Ryan Brown will probably be the quarterback. He certainly isn’t a downgrade from Hudson Card. Purdue will show up this game. Take the Boilers to win.
Sometimes, not knowing is best. This is the biggest game of the weekend, and I think that it deserves to be at night. Wait, but why is this game at 9:00AM? Oh, that’s right, Coach Ryan day cried about playing in the white out. Anyways, we definitely do not know which quarterback is playing for Penn State. Will it be 3 year starter Drew Allar who went out with a knee injury against Wisconsin? Will it be Beau Pribula who came in for Allar last week at Sconnie in the second half and did a fantastic Job? Like the Rock says, it doesn’t matter which quarterback is coming in! We are playing the 1st half under. Ohio State knows that this game will greatly affect their chances of making the playoffs. They also know that this game will greatly affect their seeding. I do not think that Ryan Day is going to sling that ball around from the start. The Nittney Lion’s defense is fantastic this year ranking 2nd in success rate and 12th in defensive EPA. Ohio State’s defense ranks 9th in success rate and 5th in defensive EPA. I just do not see a lot of touchdowns happening at least until the halftime adjustments are made. If Allar starts, then good for him, but he definitely did not get a full week of practice in. If Beau starts, then Penn State offensive coordinator Andy Kotelnicki will certainly play it safe. Take that 1st half under at 23.5
