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2024 Black Desert Championship Preview & Picks

Pre-Tournament Storylines:

The 2024 Black Desert Championship is the third event of the FedExCup Fall, a series of eight tournaments played after the TOUR Championship to determine eligibility for the 2025 PGA TOUR season. As a first-year PGA TOUR event, the Black Desert Championship marks the first permanent addition to the schedule since the Myrtle Beach Classic debuted earlier this season.

PGA returns to Utah

This marks the first PGA TOUR event in Utah since the 1963 Utah Open Invitational. In addition, Black Desert Resort is set to host an LPGA event in the spring of 2025.

Tournament Information:

  • Dates: October 10th – October 13th, 2024
  • Location: Ivins, Utah, United States
  • Course: Black Desert Resort
  • Course Type: Resort, Desert
  • Par: 71 (4x 3’s / 11x 4’s / 3x 5’s)
  • Length: 7,371 yards
  • Format: 72-hole stroke play
  • Greens: 007XL bentgrass .120”
  • Fairways: Dominator bentgrass .350”
  • Rough: Kentucky bluegrass 2”
  • Bunkers: 44
  • Water Hazard(s): 3 (In-Play on 2 Holes)
  • Average Green Size: 7,000 sq. ft.
  • Purse/ Winner: $7,500,000 /$1,350,000
  • FedEx Cup Points: 500
  • Field: 132 Players
  • Cut: Top 65 and Ties – 36 Holes
  • Playoff Format: Sudden Death | Holes 18, 18, 16, 17, 18

Social Media:

  • Black Desert Championship – (@BDChampionship)
  • Black Desert Resort – (@BlackDesertUT)

Course Architect:

  • Course Architect: Tom Weiskopf/Phil Smith (2023)

Comparable Courses & Greens:

  • Comparable Courses:
    • TPC Summerlin – Shriners Children’s Open – RESULTS
    • The Summit Club – THE CJ CUP @ SUMMIT – RESULTS
    • TPC Scottsdale – WM Phoenix Open – RESULTS
  • Designer Link (Tom Weiskopf (2023)):
    • Torrey Pines Golf Course (North Course) – Tom Weiskopf (2016) – Farmers Insurance Open
    • TPC Scottsdale (Stadium Course) – Tom Weiskopf & Jay Morrish (1986) – WM Phoenix Open
    • TPC Craig Ranch – Tom Weiskopf (2004) – THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson
  • Comparable Location (Ivins, Utah, United States):
    • TPC Scottsdale (Stadium Course) – Scottsdale, Arizona – WM Phoenix Open
    • TPC Summerlin – Las Vegas, Nevada – Shriners Children’s Open
    • Castle Pines Golf Club – Castle Rock, Colorado – BMW Championship
    • The Summit Club
  • Comparable Yardage (7,371 Yards):
    • Innisbrook Resort (Copperhead Course) – 7,340 Yards – Valspar Championship
    • East Lake Golf Club – 7,346 Yards – TOUR Championship
    • Memorial Park Golf Course – 7,412 Yards – Texas Children’s Houston Open
  • Comparable Average Green Size (7,000 sq. ft.):
    • Memorial Park Golf Course – 7,000 sq. ft. – Texas Children’s Houston Open
    • PGA WEST (Nicklaus Tournament Course) – 7,000 sq. ft. – The American Express
  • Comparable Greens (007XL bentgrass .120”):
    • TPC Craig Ranch – Bentgrass .100” – THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson
    • Colonial Country Club – 007XL bentgrass .100” – Charles Schwab Challenge
    • Muirfield Village Golf Club – Bentgrass .090” – the Memorial Tournament
    • TPC Deere Run – L-93 bentgrass .100” – John Deere Classic
    • TPC Twin Cities – Bentgrass .110” – 3M Open
    • TPC Summerlin – Dominator bentgrass .125″ – Shriners Children’s Open

TV Information (all times ET):

  • Round 1: Thursday, October 10th, 2024
    • ESPN+ – 9:45 AM -5:00 PM
    • Golf Channel – 5:00 PM – 8:00 PM
  • Round 2: Friday, October 11th, 2024
    • ESPN+ – 9:45 AM -5:00 PM
    • Golf Channel – 5:00 PM – 8:00 PM
  • Round 3: Saturday, October 12th, 2024
    • Golf Channel – 5:00 PM – 8:00 PM
  • Round 4: Sunday, October 13th, 2024
    • Golf Channel – 5:00 PM – 8:00 PM

Weather:

Course/ Tournament History:

The Black Desert Resort golf course, located in southern Utah, is a key feature of the resort and has a unique history. Designed by renowned golf course architect Tom Weiskopf, the course was conceived as part of the larger vision for the resort to offer a world-class golf experience amidst the stunning backdrop of the region’s black lava fields and red rock formations. Construction of the golf course began in the late 2010s, with Weiskopf aiming to create a course that not only challenged golfers of all skill levels but also complemented the natural desert landscape. The course officially opened in 2023 and quickly gained acclaim for its innovative design, dramatic scenery, and environmentally conscious approach, incorporating water conservation measures and native vegetation to blend seamlessly with the surroundings.

Tournament Records:

  • 72-Hole Record (Black Desert Championship):
    • Inaugural event
  • 18-Hole Record (Black Desert Championship):
    • Inaugural event

Course Records:

  • 72-Hole Record (Black Desert Resort):
    • Inaugural event
  • 18-Hole Record (Black Desert Resort):
    • Inaugural event

Course Guide/ Scorecard:

Featured/ Signature Hole(s): 7, 13, 16

Key Statistics:

  • Strokes Gained: Off the Tee
    • Success this week will hinge on players’ ability to position themselves effectively off the tee. While the course’s considerable length underscores the significance of distance, precision holds equal importance.
    • Leaders in this category in the last 24 Rounds:
      • Camerom Champ
      • Kevin Dougherty
      • Patrick Fishburn
      • Carson Young
      • MJ Daffue
      • Ryan Brehm
      • Chan Kim
      • Seamus Power
      • Keith Mitchell
      • Alex Smalley

  • Strokes Gained: Approach
    • Having a strong iron game will be important this week if players want to succeed at Black Desert Resort.
    • Leaders in this category in the last 24 Rounds:
      • Doug Ghim
      • J.J. Spaun
      • Keith Mitchell
      • David Lipsky
      • Chez Reavie
      • Austin Smotherman
      • Andrew Novak
      • David Skinns
      • Nick Hardy
      • Mac Meissner

  • Strokes Gained: Putting (Bentgrass)
    • The Greens at Black Desert Resort are 007XL bentgrass.
    • Leaders in this category in the last 24 Rounds:
      • Justin Lower
      • Harry Hall
      • Martin Laird
      • Harris English
      • Taylor Montgomery
      • Seonghyeon Kim
      • Kevin Kisner
      • Chandler Phillips
      • Kevin Chappell
      • Andrew Novak

  • Par 3 Scoring: 150-175 Yards (x2)
    • Two of the four Par 3’s at Black Desert Resort range between 150-175 Yards.
    • Leaders in Par 3 Scoring: 150-175 Yards in the last 24 Rounds:
      • Nico Echavarria
      • Erik Van Rooyen
      • Peter Kuest
      • C.T. Pan
      • Michael Thorbjornsen
      • Patton Kizzire
      • Scott Gutschewski
      • Justin Suh
      • Tim Wilkinson
      • Ben Taylor

  • Par 4 Scoring: 450-500 Yards (x4)
    • Four of the eleven Par 4’s at Black Desert Resort range between 450-500 Yards.
    • Leaders in Par 4 Scoring: 450-500 Yards in the last 24 Rounds:
      • Chad Ramey
      • Trace Crowe
      • Andrew Novak
      • Maverick McNealy
      • Seamus Power
      • Nick Taylor
      • Vincent Whaley
      • Lucas Glover
      • Trey Mullinax
      • Jacob Bridgeman

  • Par 5 Scoring: 550-600 Yards (x3)
    • All three of the Par 5’s at Black Desert Resort range between 550-600 Yards.
    • Leaders in Par 5 Scoring: 550-600 Yards in the last 24 Rounds:
      • Patrick Fishburn
      • Hayden Springer
      • Kevin Chappell
      • Paul Bjorn
      • Patrick Rodgers
      • Troy Merritt
      • Adam Svensson
      • Matthew NeSmith
      • Kurt Kitayama
      • Zcheng Dou

  • Birdies or Better Gained
    • Players will need to take advantage of every scoring opportunity this week if they want to put themselves into contention.
    • Leaders in this category in the last 24 Rounds:
      • Keith Mitchell
      • J.J. Spaun
      • Beau Hossler
      • Michael Thorbjornsen
      • Justin Lower
      • Chan Kim
      • Harry Hall
      • Chun-an Yu
      • Patrick Fishburn
      • Pierceson Coody

The Field:

This year’s Black Desert Championship will feature a total of 132 competitors.

  • Here is the current basis of qualification for each entrant this week:
    • Top 125 FedExCup Fall Point Lists
    • Top 70 on Prior Year FEC Playoff & Elig List through the Playoffs
    • Tournament Winner in Past Two Seasons
    • DP World Tour / Korn Ferry Tour / Q-School Category – Reordered
    • Open Qualifying
    • Sponsors Exemptions – Unrestricted
    • PGA Section Champion\Player of the Year
    • Winner – PGA/U.S. Open Championship
    • Reorder Category – Cat. 37 thru 44
    • Career Money Exemption
    • Major Medical Extension
  • Previous Winners in the Field (Event):
    • Inaugural event
  • Debutants in the Field (Event):
    • Inaugural event
  • Sponsors Exemptions:
    • Jay Don Blake, Kihei Akina, Zac Jones, Peter Kuest, Max McGreevy, Mike Weir, Sean O’Hair
  • Notable Withdraws/ Changes:
    • Brandt Snedeker WD
    • S.Y. Noh OUT; Austin Smotherman IN
    • Maverick McNealy WD; Kelly Kraft IN
    • Kevin Yu WD; Austin Cook IN
    • Emiliano Grillo WD; Scott Piercy IN
    • Parker Coody WD; Ryan Palmer IN
    • Ryan Palmer WD; Cody Gribble IN

The Odds:

Here are the current favorites for this week’s event, along with a summary of their recent form and course history:

Keith Mitchell (+1600) enters this event in top form, with a T12 finish at the Wyndham Championship, 12th at the Procore Championship, and T3 at the Sanderson Farms Championship in his last three starts. He’s also performed well on similar courses, with a T17 finish at the 2024 WM Phoenix Open and a T3 at the 2022 CJ CUP.

Seamus Power (+2200) is also in solid form, having placed inside the top 15 in his last two PGA TOUR appearances, with a T10 finish at the FedEx St. Jude Championship and a T11 at last week’s Sanderson Farms Championship.

Kurt Kitayama (+2500) missed the cut at his last PGA TOUR event, the Wyndham Championship, but showed strong form prior to that with a T6 finish at the 3M Open. He’s also had good results on comparable courses, finishing T8 at the 2024 WM Phoenix Open and T23 at the same event in 2023.

Beau Hossler (+2800) came close to victory last week, losing in a playoff at the Sanderson Farms Championship to Kevin Yu. Before that, he missed the cut at the Procore Championship but finished T12 at the Wyndham Championship. Hossler has also performed well on similar courses, with a T7 finish at the 2023 Shriners Children’s Open and a T14 finish at the 2023 WM Phoenix Open.

Picks:

Outrights:

  • Andrew Novak (+4000) – BetMGM
    • Risk 0.20 to win 8.00 Units

  • Lucas Glover (+4000) – BetMGM
    • Risk 0.20 to win 8.00 Units

  • Alex Smalley (+4500) – FanDuel
    • Risk 0.18 to win 8.10 Units

  • J.J. Spaun (+4500) – BetMGM
    • Risk 0.18 to win 8.10 Units

  • Daniel Berger (+5000) – FanDuel
    • Risk 0.16 to win 8.00 Units

  • Ben Kohles (+7000) – FanDuel
    • Risk 0.12 to win 8.40 Units

Total Risk on Outrights: 1.04 Units

Top 20 (including ties):

  • Beau Hossler (+130) – DraftKings
    • Risk 1.00 to win 1.30 Units

  • Harry Hall (+200) – DraftKings
    • Risk 1.00 to win 2.00 Units

Total Risk on Top 20s: 2.00 Units

Total Risk on the Black Desert Championship: 3.04 Units 

Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting. Any feedback whether positive or negative is always encouraged.

Fantasy Football Week 6

Bye Weeks:  Chiefs, Rams, Dolphins and Vikings

Key Injuries:  

RB Aaron Jones hurt his hip and might miss time after the bye.

WR Nico Collins was ruled out for a hammy.

RB De’Von Achane was ruled out with a concussion.

RB Zach Moss for the Bengals.

Waiver Wire:

RB Ty Chandler if you can stomach it. 

WR Tank Dell for the Collins injury.

WR John Mechie also for the Collins injury.

RB  Jaylen Wright for the Achane injury.

QB Joe Flacco is the real guy in Indy.  

WR Jordan Whittingham for the Rams could be big.  (Dave’s sleeper last week)

RB Tank Bigsby might be the man now in Jacksonville.

WR Darius Slayton had 11 targets for the Giants.

WR Alec Pierce for Indy but only if Joe is his QB.

RB Tyrone Tracy was big against the Seahawks last week.

TE Colby Parkinson for the Rams had 13 targets.

Non-starters trending up for week 6:

Defense Texans against the Patriots is nice.

TE Cole Kmet vs Jacksonville’s bad defense.  

WR Rome Odunze vs the Jags too.

QB Justin Fields at the Raiders should work.

WR Luke McCaffery against the Ravens will do well.

WR Rashid Shaheed vs the Buccaneers should work.

QB Wil Levis vs the Colts looks ok.

RB Chase Brown against the Giants looks good.

TE David Njoku vs the Eagles should do something.

RB Nick Chubb vs the Eagles needs to be in the lineup ready at least.

Busts:

RB Brian Robinson at the Ravens is rough.

RB Alexander Mattison vs Pitt is bad.

RB Javonte Williams hosting the Chargers is bad.

WR Michael Pittman against the Titans is bad.

WR Keon Coleman against the Jets is rough.

RB Travis Etienne isn’t good against the Bears.

QB Trevor Lawrence against the Bears is bad.

QB Kyler Murray against the Packers is suspect.

WR Marvin Harrison JR against the Packers isn’t good.

QB Geno Smith against a mad 49ers is gross.

RB Kenneth Walker against the 49ers isn’t great.

WR DK Metcalf just fumbled again against the 49ers.

Nasty Sleeper:  WR Jalen Tolbert against the Lions.   The Cowboys will put up points.

 

 

Tuesday Free Play Video:

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5 Free Selections:
NHL: Bos/Flo
WNBA: Conn/Min
MLB: Phi/NYM
MLB: SD/LAD
NCAAF: FIU/Lib

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Podcast 631 – 76 – 24 – College Football & NFL Recap – Fantasy Football Week 6 – Sports Betting

We have a GREAT show for you today!  Another week in the books and now it’s time to recap and do some analysis!   First, Kiev recaps the weekend with the good, the bad, and the ugly.  Next, we talk some misleading final scores with brief box score analysis.  Then, Kiev talks about the NFL and College Football betting spots for next week.   Who could let down?  Who has a short week?   After that, we give out a Free Play for the upcoming weekend.   Finally Dave comes back as we break down some fantasy football.  We talk key injuries, waiver wire,  Should you have any questions for the podcast, or games that you want us to cap during our shows, please message us at Info@TheOddsBreakers.com.   Have a wonderful week!

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Audio Player

Monday Free Play Video:

KANSAS CITY, MISSOURI - SEPTEMBER 12: Patrick Mahomes #15 of the Kansas City Chiefs reacts prior to the game against the Cleveland Browns at Arrowhead Stadium on September 12, 2021 in Kansas City, Missouri. (Photo by Jamie Squire/Getty Images)

Premium Selections over at www.oddsbreakers.com

2 Free Selections:
NFL: Saints/Chiefs
MLB: Yankees/Royals

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Monday Night Football Video Prop Play – Sports Betting – Saints vs Chiefs

NFL Week 5 Free Plays – Sports Betting – Colts vs Jags

Panthers vs Bears -4 O/U 40

I do not have a ton of time this morning, so I am going to make this short and sweet.   At what point did we think that the Panthers are not one of the worst teams in the league?  How many points should the Bears get for home field?   This spread is way too low here.   I know that the Panthers have the red rocket throwing the ball, but his favorite reciever is out in Adam Thielen.   Carolina also lost a ton on defnese with their two best linebackers DJ Wonnum and Shaq Thompson out of this game.  The Bears just really need to run the ball and slow the clock.  Hence the low total of 40.   Caleb Williams is finding his groove.  Take the Bears.

Bears -4 – 2 stars

 

Teaser:   49ers to -1.5 with the Bengals to +8 – 2 stars – The Bengals know how to play the Ravens.  The Cowboys are injured on defense but most of the offense is healthy.

Saturday Free Play Video:

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7 Selections!!

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College Football Saturday Super Plays – Sports Betting – Miami vs Cal

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Kiev O'Neil's Sports Betting Stats and Records!  

56% 139-109-5 up 22 units in the 2023 NFL Season!

55% 101-82-8 up 10 units in 2024 MLB Thus Far on 8/05/24!

2023 MLB Season 146-123-7 up 11U

2023/2024 College Basketball up 9U

63% for 2022/2023 NBA sides and totals!   22-13 up 6.5 units.  14% ROI

55% All Time NFL Sides, Teasers, Parlays, Props and Totals!  5.21% ROI

56% 2022/2023 NFL Season 136-109-11 in Sides/Totals/Teasers/Season props up 38.5U

55% All Time College Football Sides, Teasers, Parlays, Props and Totals!  4.75% ROI

63% FOR 2022 COLLEGE BOWL SEASON UP 27 UNITS!

54% Lifetime All Plays in College Basketball  3% ROI

38% Lifetime UFC On All Plays 3% ROI

62% 2022 March Madness College Basketball Plays at 30% ROI!!!

Miami vs Cal +10.5 O/U 54.5

I have had this game circled for a while now.  Some may think that the Canes have a little extra rest if you do not do your research here.  The Cal Bears are coming off of a nice bye week and this team has started the season out strong beating teams like San Diego State by three touchdowns, and Auburn all the way on the East Coast.  I will excuse their loss to Florida State a few weeks back, as this was a do or die for the Semis.  We all know how good Miami has been accumulating a massive 4.09 net yards per play, but we also have to factor in that these performances were mainly against tomato cans this year.  Florida has been an abomination of an SEC team, and it took a miracle to beat Virginia Tech last Friday.  At least the Bears played at Auburn and at Florida State this year boosting their strength of schedule ranking to 65 of Sagarin while Miami’s sits at 92.  This is not just a good spot for Cal, it is also a rough spot for Miami as they are sandwiched between Virginia Tech and at Louisiville.   This could be a good sandwich spot to fade the canes.  What this Cal team has does well is passing the ball.  Fernando Mendoza has a nice 67.5 completion percentage at a 138.5 passer rating.  Should Cal be down to this beast of a Miami team, the back door will be open.  I also think that coach Justin Wilcox has some experience playing against Mario Cristobal with his time at Oregon.  Cal also faced the likes of Cam Ward last year, when they won the game against Washington State 42-39.  That has to account for something as coach Justin Wilcox has good experience against this lad.  I think Cal’s defense is good enough to slow down Miami’s offense ranking at 67th in success rate and 32nd against the run in success rate.  Take the Bears here +10.5

Bears +10.5 – 2 stars

Kansas vs ASU -2.5 O/U 50

I still do not understand what people are not seeing in Kansas this season.   Apparently, losing Andy Kotelnicki was a much bigger blow than we thought before the season.  Now we are asking Kansas to lose by three or less points on the road to a feisty Arizona State team?   ASU is off of the bye this week and had a lot of time to think about the Texas Tech loss.  Kansas’s strength has really been their rushing ranking 25th in success rate and 18th in yards per rush.  The problem is for that is that ASU’s strength is stopping the run ranking 6th in opponent yards per rush at 2.55.  The Sun Devils should find success running the football against Kansas ranking 25th in rushing success rate to Kansas ranking 66th in success rate in stopping the run.  Running back Cam Skattlebo has been a beast for ASU at 5.03 yards per rush and five TDs over four games thus far.  The Jayhawks are 0-5 this year against the spread while the Sun Devils are 3-1.   I will ride that trend for another week in a night game at home.

Arizona State -2.5 – 3 stars

NFL Week 5 Sharp Money Movement

As Of Wednesday October 2nd

Sharp Money On:

  • Buccaneers +3 to +1.5 at the Falcons – 73% tickets and 87% of the money.
  • Bills +1.5 to -1.5 at the Texans – 62% tickets and 77% of the money.

Sharp Totals:

  • Colts vs Jaguars under 47.5 to 46.5 – 21% tickets and 55% of the money.
  • Giants vs Seahawks over 43 to 43.5 – 86% tickets and 92% of the money.