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Podcast 639 – 84 – 24 – With Andy Molitor – NFL Week 8 – UFC 308 – Sports Betting

The OddsBreakers Sports Betting Podcast
The OddsBreakers All Rights Reserved

We have a great show for you today!  Andy Molitor @AndyMSFW from @Betsperts and @DeepDivePod comes back on to break down some HUGE NFL games this week.  No byes!   First, Kiev talks about some NFL ATS and O/U updated trends.   Next, Andy comes on and the guys start talking about who the real super bowl contenders are fort this season.  Then, Andy and Kiev talk about some buy low, sell high NFL teams with respect to the market.   After that, the guys get into NFL Week 8 with some Free Plays!   Next, Andy and Kiev give out some Beer Bet Bangers that could cash for some big plus money.  Then, Kiev gives out his REFUSE TO LOSE TEASER that is 4-3 for the season.  Next, Kiev talks some UFC 308 with a few plays!  Finally, we get into some NFL sharp money movement AND recap our plays!  Should you have any questions for the podcast, or games that you want us to cap during our shows, please message us at Info@TheOddsBreakers.com.  Have a wonderful week!

Link to wagering on our best bets from the show:  https://theoddsbreakers.com/mybookie/ Must Be 21+. Gambling Problem? Call or Text 1-800-GAMBLER.

Use Promo Code Football24 TO GET $100 OFF EVERY FOOTBALL OR YEARLY PACKAGE or 50% OFF THE FIRST MONTH OF ANY MONTHLY PACKAGE for the rest of the 2024 season! Click here: https://theoddsbreakers.com/premium-plays/ Offer expires December 31st 2024

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Thursday Night Video Prop Play – 12-3 – Sports Betting

NHL Preview & Picks – October 24th, 2024

Tonight’s NHL slate is packed with action, featuring nine games across the league. From top contenders looking to build early-season momentum to teams searching for their first win, there’s no shortage of intriguing matchups.

Whether you’re a seasoned bettor or new to the world of NHL wagering, today’s games present numerous enticing angles, including moneylines, puck lines, and prop bets. With teams eager to establish their early-season identities, there’s plenty to consider. Let’s explore the top matchups and uncover the best bets for tonight’s action!

Matchups

Minnesota Wild @ Tampa Bay Lightning

  • Puck Drop: 7:00 PM ET
  • TV Information: ESPN+
TeamOpening MLCurrent MLSpreadTotal
Minnesota Wild+124+124+1.5 (-198)o6.0 (-122)
Tampa Bay Lightning-148-148-1.5 (+164)u6.0 (+102)
Odds via DraftKings

Preview:

The Wild are off to a strong start, going 4-0-2, and have become just the second team in NHL history to avoid trailing at any point in regulation through their first six games of a season (the 1969-70 Bruins did it for seven games). Tampa Bay has also had a great start at 4-0-2, led by Nikita Kucherov, who aims to extend his season-opening point streak to seven games (seven goals, five assists).

Starting Goaltenders:

  • Minnesota Wild: Marc-Andre Fleury (Expected)
  • Tampa Bay Lightning: Andrei Vasilevskiy (Confirmed)

Team Stats & Trends:

  • Tampa Bay are 4-1 SU in their last 5 games at home.
  • The total has gone OVER in 4 of Tampa Bay’s last 5 games.
  • Minnesota are 5-1 SU in their last 6 games on the road.

Player Stats & Trends:

  • William Nylander has scored at least once in each of his previous four matchups against St. Louis
  • Pavel Buchnevich has recorded at least one point in three of his previous four matchups against Toronto

Best Bets:

  • Victor Hedman over 2.5 Shots on Goal (-115) – DraftKings

Victor Hedman has had a great start to the season recording 8 points (2 goals, 6 assists). Additionally, Hedman is a key player on Tampa Bay’s first power play unit, which is likely to have several opportunities in tonight’s game.

Hedman has consistently met his shots-on-goal quota in four of his first six games to start the season. During that span, he’s averaging 3.5 Shots on Goal and 7.0 Shot Attempts.

Additionally, Hedman boasts a decent track record against Minnesota, recording over 2.5 shots on goal in two of their last four encounters.

In Hedman’s last 30 games at home, he’s been much better recording over 2.5 shots on goal in 53.3% compared to just 40% in his last 30 games on the road.

Minnesota currently ranks 22nd this season for shots on goal allowed per game, averaging 29.80 shots. Breaking down the distribution by position, the Wild have conceded the most shots on goal per game to defensemen this season with an average of 11.17.

Florida Panthers @ New York Rangers

  • Puck Drop: 7:00 PM ET
  • TV Information: ESPN+
TeamOpening MLCurrent MLSpreadTotal
Florida Panthers+124+130+1.5 (-198)o5.5 (-125)
New York Rangers-148-155-1.5 (+164)u5.5 (+105)
Odds via DraftKings

Preview:

The Florida Panthers and New York Rangers will face off in a rematch of the 2024 Eastern Conference Final. The Rangers are off to a fantastic start at 5-0-1 and will aim to extend their franchise-best season-opening point streak to seven games. Meanwhile, the Panthers have experienced a bit of a Stanley Cup hangover, beginning the season at 3-4-1.

Florida’s Sergei Bobrovsky is just one win away from becoming the 14th goalie in NHL history to reach 400 victories. With 706 games played, Bobrovsky could become the fastest goalie to achieve this milestone, surpassing former Rangers goalie Henrik Lundqvist, who did it in 727 games on February 11, 2017.

Starting Goaltenders:

  • Florida Panthers: Sergei Bobrovsky (Expected)
  • New York Rangers: Igor Shesterkin (Confirmed)

Stats & Trends:

  • The total has gone OVER in 5 of Florida’s last 6 games.

Player Stats & Trends:

  • Gustav Forsling has recorded more than 1.5 shots on goal in each of his last six games against the Rangers
  • Sam Bennett has recorded at least one point in five of his previous six matchups against the Rangers
  • Mika Zibanejad has recorded more than 2.5 shots on goal in three of his last four games against Florida
  • Alexis Lafreniere has recorded at least one point in three of his previous four matchups against Florida

Best Bets:

  • New York Rangers (-152) – FanDuel
  • New York Rangers in Regulation (+100) – FanDuel [HALF UNIT]

The Rangers are off to a phenomenal start this season and will be seeking revenge against the Florida Panthers, the team that eliminated them from the playoffs last year. New York leads the league in goals per game (GF/GP) with an average of 5.17, while Florida has struggled defensively, ranking 25th in goals against per game (GA/GP) with an average of 3.63. The Panthers have also been hit with injuries to key offensive players, which has impacted their production, placing them 19th in GF/GP at 3.0.

On the defensive side, the Rangers have been solid, ranking 4th in GA/GP with just 2.0 goals allowed per game. Igor Shesterkin will start for New York, having had a strong start to the season, ranking 6th in Goals Saved Above Expected (GSAx). Sergei Bobrovsky is expected to start for Florida, though he was pulled in his last game after allowing 5 goals on 16 shots. Through six games, Bobrovsky ranks 65th out of 68 in GSAx with a -4.6.

I expect the Rangers to keep rolling at home and extend their season-opening point streak.

Additional Bets

  • Colorado Avalanche (-152) – FanDuel
  • Quinton Byfield over 0.5 Points (-115) – BetMGM

Promotions/ Sources:

Linemate – Player/ Team Props

I’ve been using Linemate since the start, and it has proven to be an invaluable resource for NHL betting. One of its standout features is the comprehensive data and analytics that help bettors make informed decisions when placing prop bets. The platform also boasts a user-friendly interface, making it accessible for both experienced bettors and newcomers alike, allowing them to easily navigate and find the best prop bets. By utilizing Linemate’s robust tools and resources, NHL prop betters can significantly enhance their chances of making profitable wagers throughout the season. Beyond NHL betting, Linemate also provides in-depth data on various other sports, including the NFL, MLB, NBA, NCAAF, EPL, and many more leagues and sports.

Use my code to receive a one-time 15% discount, which can be applied to your first month of a monthly plan or the total cost of an annual plan. My discount code is always more competitive than any deals from Linemate. While Linemate’s monthly plan costs $9.99, their annual plan is currently priced at $79.99, offering a 33% discount off the regular price. The best part? My 15% code applies to the $79.99 plan, meaning you’ll actually enjoy over 40% OFF!

Shot Propz – Charts

  • Shots on Goal (SOG) Against by Position
  • Shot Attempts (SAT) Against by Position
  • Goals Against (GA) by Position
  • Team Offensive Stat Overview
  • Team Defensive Stat Overview
  • Team Hits and Blocks

Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting. Any feedback whether positive or negative is always encouraged.

Podcast 638 – 83 – 24 – With David Delano – College Football Week 9 – Sports Betting

The OddsBreakers Sports Betting Podcast
The OddsBreakers All Rights Reserved

We have a great show for you today!  David Delano @GetSportsStrong comes on to break down some college football week 9!  First, Kiev talks about some ATS and O/U trends in college football!  Next, David comes on and he gets right into what sports strong is all about!  Then, David and Kiev talk some buy low, sell high teams for the next coming weeks.   After that the guys get into college football week 9 with some Free Plays and some leans.  Next, Kiev and David give out some Beer Bet Bangers that could cash for some big plus money.  Finally, we get into college sharp money movement AND recap our plays!  Should you have any questions for the podcast, or games that you want us to cap during our shows, please message us at Info@TheOddsBreakers.com.  Have a wonderful week!

Link to wagering on our best bets from the show:  https://theoddsbreakers.com/mybookie/ Must Be 21+. Gambling Problem? Call or Text 1-800-GAMBLER.

Use Promo Code Football24 TO GET $100 OFF EVERY FOOTBALL OR YEARLY PACKAGE or 50% OFF THE FIRST MONTH OF ANY MONTHLY PACKAGE for the rest of the 2024 season! Click here: https://theoddsbreakers.com/premium-plays/ Offer expires December 31st 2024

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If you want to subscribe to support us and get some very frequent winners please Click Here to become a member of The OddsBreakers and gain access to premium plays BEFORE the line moves!  Or, you can visit theoddsbreakers.com and click shop and pick one of our great handicappers including Kiev O’Neil @OBKiev at only $84 per month on a 1 year subscription!

You could also support us at Patreon.com for only $10 a month to help us out and thank us for some free plays as well as get some extra benefits like free merch and more!

College Football Week 9 Betting Spots

Let Down Spots:

  • Indiana could let down hosting Washington after beating Nebraska.   They lost their QB Kurtis Roark to injury as well.
  • Illinois could be flat at Oregon after beating Michigan.  
  • Georgia Southern at Old Dominion after beating James Madison.
  • Duke hosting SMU after Florida State win is one.
  • Maryland at Minnesota after beating USC is one.

Get Up Spots:

  • Texas at Vanderbilt after Georgia loss is one.
  • James Madison hosting Southern Miss after Georgia Southern loss.
  • USC better get up hosting Rutgers after choking again.

Look Ahead Spots:

  • Penn State could look past Wisconsin to Ohio State, but they are off the bye.

Long Rest:

  • Louisiana Monroe with an extra three days off the Bye to face South Alabama.
  • Troy with an extra four days facing Arkansas State.
  • Jacksonville State with a very long bye week against MTSU.
  • Liberty with a few extra days off the Bye at Kennesaw State.
  • Louisiana Monroe off the bye has an extra 5 days over Marshall.
  • App State off the bye has an extra 5 days over Georgia State.
  • Virginia Tech with an extra two days hosting Georgia Tech.
  • Boston College with an extra 2 days hosting Louisville.  Louisville is on a short week.
  • Florida State with an extra Day at Miami.
  • Duke with an extra days rest hosting SMU.
  • Oregon with an extra day hosting Illinois.
  • Purdue with an extra day rest hosting Northwestern.
  • Oklahoma State with an extra day rest at Baylor.
  • BYU with an extra day of rest at UCF.
  • Akron off the bye hosting Eastern Michigan.
  • Minnesota off the bye hosting Maryland.
  • North Carolina off the bye at Virginia.
  • Ohio State off the bye hosting Nebraska.
  • Ole Miss off the bye hosting Oklahoma.
  • Penn State off the bye at Wisconsin.
  • San Diego State off the bye hosting Washington State.
  • Washington off the bye at Indiana.

Revenge Spots:

  • Michigan State at Michigan.
  • Kansas at Kansas State is one.
  • Navy hosting Notre Dame is one for sure.

NFL Week 8 Betting Spots

Let Down Spots:

  • Lions hosting the Titans could be flat after getting 1st in the division.
  • Broncos hosting the Panthers after avenging their coach’s X team.

Get Up Spots:

  • Saints need to wake up at the Chargers this week.
  • Vikings may be mad at the Rams.
  • Giants really have to wake up at the Steelers.

Look ahead spots:

  • The Broncos could look past the Panthers to the Ravens.
  • The Lions could look past the Titans to the Packers.
  • The Packers could look past the Jaguars to the Lions.

Short Week:

  • Buccaneers from Monday night hosting the Falcons.
  • Ravens from Monday night hosting the Broncos.
  • Chargers from Monday night hosting the Saints.
  • Cardinals from Monday night at the Dolphins.

Long Week:

  • Saints off Thursday night at the Chargers.
  • Broncos off Thursday night hosting the Panthers.
  • Cowboys off the bye at the 49ers.
  • Bears off the bye at the Commanders.

Revenge Spots:

  • Patriots could further ruin the Jets in a divisional revenge spot.
  • Buccaneers have a shot to beat the Falcons from the loss just a few weeks back.
  • Chiefs could avenge that Raiders loss that embarrassed them last year.
  • Colts will want to beat the Texans after a close first game loss this year.

NFL Week 7 Misleading Final Scores

The Dolphins out-gained the Colts 337-284 yet lost 16-10.  A 2-1 turnover ratio got them.

The Packers out-gained the Texans 277-197 yet only won 24-22.  A 3-0 turnover ratio and bad special teams is why.

The Browns out-gained the Bengals 336 to 223 yet lost 21-14.  A 2-0 turnover ratio and a QB injury got the Browns.

The Falcons out-gained the Seahawks 385 to 339 yet lost 34-14.   A 3-0 turnover ratio and poor coaching got the Falcons.

Raiders yards were mainly garbage time and the Rams let off.

The 49ers were only out-gained 329 to 310 yet lost 28-18.   Terrible red zone efficiency, bad QB play and big injuries to wide recievers crushed the 49ers.

Wednesday Free Play Video:

Bucks vs. Suns in game 1 of the NBA Finals.

3 Free Selections:
NBA: Bucks/Sixers
NHL: Flyers/Caps
NCAAF: MTS/JVST

Premium Selections at winningcappers.net

College Football Week 8 Misleading Final Scores

Fake changing to fact with wooden cubes. ( 3d render )

Florida State out-gained Duke 291 to 180 yet lost 23-16.  A 4-0 turnover ratio ran over the Semis.

Oregon only out-gained Purdue 421 to 301 yet won 35-0.  Horrible Red zone for Purdue and a 2-1 turnover ratio cooked the Boilers.

North Texas out-gained Middle Tennessee State 653 to 526 yet lost 52-44.  A 2-0 turnover ratio did them in.

Mississippi State out-gained Texas A&M 367 to 353 yet lost 34-24.  They won the turnover battle 1-2, but bad red zone efficiency got the Bulldogs.

Michigan out-gained Illinois 322 to 267 yet lost 21-7.  A huge 3-0 Tuttle turnover special got the Wolverines.

Charlotte out-gained Navy 363 to 288 yet lost 51-17 . A massive 5-0 turnover ratio and four sacks got the 49ers.

Northern Illinois out-gained Toledo 391 to 285 yet lost 13-6.  Equal turnover at 0 but horrible red zone and 2/8 in fourth downs got the Huskies.

Cal out-gained NC State 399 to 363 yet lost at home 24-23.  A 2-1 turnover ratio destroyed them along with 2/14 third down efficiency.

Rice out-gained tulane 344 to 306 yet lost 24-10.  A 5-0 turnover ratio got them.

Buffalo out-gained Western Michigan 551 to 489 yet lost 48-41.  Equal turnovers at 1 but just bad red zone defense got the Bulls.

UAB out-gained South Florida 485-355 yet lost 35-25.  Equal turnovers at 2 but 9 penalties and four sacks did in the Blazers.

Texas State out-gained Old Dominion 359 to 322 yet lost 24-14.   A 2-1 turnover ratio and 3/13 on 3rd down efficiency got the Bobcats.

Oklahoma’s yards were mainly all garbage.

East Carolina’s back door cover was garbage yards.

2024 ZOZO Championship Preview & Picks

Last week at the Shriners Children’s Open, Davis Thompson (T5) and Taylor Pendrith (8th) were our closest outright selections. We hit one of our two Top 20 bets with Harry Hall (+175), while our other T20 pick, Seamus Power (+135), struggled failing to make the weekend.

Pre-Tournament Storylines:

Collin Morikawa

Morikawa is aiming to become the first player to defend his title at the ZOZO CHAMPIONSHIP. While he hasn’t won on the PGA TOUR since that victory, he’s had a solid season with eight top-10 finishes, including two runner-up performances.

The PGA Tour Heads to Japan

The FedExCup Fall continues with the ZOZO CHAMPIONSHIP in Chiba, Japan, marking the first international event of the series. Collin Morikawa returns, hoping to defend his title, alongside former ZOZO champions Hideki Matsuyama and Keegan Bradley, as well as two-time major winner Xander Schauffele.

The ZOZO is the fifth of eight FedExCup Fall tournaments, where players are competing to secure TOUR cards for the 2025 season.

Tournament Information:

  • Dates: October 24th – October 27th, 2024
  • Location: Inzai, Chiba Prefecture, Japan
  • Course: Accordia Golf Narashino Country Club
  • Course Type: Parkland
  • Par: 70 (5x 3’s / 10x 4’s / 3x 5’s)
  • Length: 7,079 yards
  • Format: 72-hole stroke play
  • Greens: Bentgrass
  • Fairways: Zoysiagrass
  • Rough: Zoysiagrass 2″
  • Bunkers: N/A
  • Water Hazard(s): 4 (In-Play on 5 Holes)
  • Average Green Size: 5,500 sq. ft.
  • Stimpmeter: 10.5 ft.
  • Purse/ Winner: $8,500,000 /$1,530,000
  • FedEx Cup Points: 500
  • Field: 78 Players
  • Cut: No Cut
  • Playoff Format: Sudden Death | Hole 18 (repeat)
  • Course Scoring Average:
    • 2023: 70.51 (+0.51), Rank 12 of 58
    • 2022: 69.52 (-0.48), Rank 15 of 41
    • 2021: 70.48 (+0.48), Rank 11 of 50

Social Media:

Course Architect:

  • Course Architect: Kinya Fujita (1976)
  • Renovations: PGA Renovations (2016-2019)

Comparable Courses & Greens:

  • Comparable Courses:
    • Harbour Town – RBC Heritage
    • Colonial Country Club – Charles Schwab Challenge
    • Waialae Country Club – Sony Open in Hawaii
    • TPC Sawgrass (Stadium Course) – THE PLAYERS Championship

  • Comparable Yardage (7,079 Yards):
    • Sea Island Golf Club (Plantation Course) – 7,060 Yards – The RSM Classic
    • PGA WEST (La Quinta Country Club) – 7,060 Yards – The American Express

  • Comparable Greens (Bentgrass):
    • Torrey Pines Golf Course (North Course) – Bentgrass .100” – Farmers Insurance Open
    • Augusta National Golf Club – Bentgrass .125” – Masters Tournament
    • TPC Craig Ranch – Bentgrass .100” – THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson
    • Muirfield Village Golf Club – Bentgrass .090” – the Memorial Tournament
    • TPC Twin Cities – Bentgrass .110” – 3M Open
    • Black Desert Resort007XL bentgrass .120” – Black Desert Championship
    • TPC Deere Run – L-93 bentgrass .100” – John Deere Classic
    • TPC Summerlin – Dominator bentgrass .100” – Shriners Children’s Open

  • Comparable Average Green Size (5,500 sq. ft.):
    • TPC Sawgrass – 5,500 sq. ft. – THE PLAYERS Championship
    • TPC Deere Run – 5,500 sq. ft. – John Deere Classic

TV Information (all times ET):

  • Round 1: Wednesday, October 23rd, 2024 into Thursday, October 24th, 2024
    • Golf Channel – 11:00 PM – 3:00 AM
  • Round 2: Thursday, October 24th, 2024 into Friday, October 25th, 2024
    • Golf Channel – 11:00 PM – 3:00 AM
  • Round 3: Friday, October 25th, 2024 into Saturday, October 26th, 2024
    • Golf Channel – 11:00 PM – 3:00 AM
  • Round 4: Saturday, October 26th, 2024 into Sunday, October 27th, 2024
    • Golf Channel – 11:00 PM – 3:00 AM

Weather:

Course/ Tournament History:

The ZOZO Championship was founded in 2019 and is the first-ever event sanctioned in Japan by the PGA Tour. In its debut, Tiger Woods took home the win and captured his 82nd PGA Tour victory, tying the all-time record set by Sam Snead. In 2020, the event was held at Sherwood Country Club in California due to the COVID-19 travel restrictions. Since then, with the restrictions lifted, it has been held again at Narashino Country Club the past two editions.

Narashino Country Club opened in 1965 and was designed by Kinya Fujita. While North American fans were first introduced to this course in 2019, many professional events have been held here. Three years after the course opened, it hosted the 1968 Japan PGA Championship. In 1977, the Japan Open took place here where Seve Ballesteros became the first non-Asian to win the event. Narashino Country Club was also the home to the Suntory Open on the Japan Golf Tour from 1974-1997.

Tournament Records:

  • 72-Hole Record (ZOZO Championship):
    • 261, Tiger Woods (2019)
  • 18-Hole Record (ZOZO Championship):
    • 61, Richy Werenski (Second round, 2020 @ Sherwood), John Huh (Second round, 2023 @ Narashino Country Club)
  • Largest Margin of Victory:
    • 6 Strokes – Collin Morikawa (2023)

Course Records:

  • 72-Hole Record (Accordia Golf Narashino Country Club):
    • 261, Tiger Woods (2019)
  • 18-Hole Record (Accordia Golf Narashino Country Club):
    • 61, John Huh (Second round, 2023)

Course Guide/ Scorecard:

Accordia Golf Narashino Country Club is a Par 70 that plays 7,079 yards. The layout is a bit unusual with five Par 3’s, ten Par 4’s, and three Par 5’s. This course also features the traditional Japanese setup of dual greens.

The five Par 3’s range between 141 yards and 205 yards. Last year, No. 5 and No. 16 were the only par 3’s to have a scoring average over par.

Hole No. 16 is a 183-yard par 3 that requires an accurate iron shot off the tee. The right side of the green is guarded by bunkers with the left protected by a small lake. The green slopes severely right to left feeding any shots that land short left into the water.

Most of the eleven Par 4’s range between 450-500 yards. No. 2 is the shortest listed at 368 yards with the longest being No. 4, just over 500 yards.

No. 12 is a downhill 490-yard par 4 that traditionally is played as a par 5. Off the tee, players will want to position themselves along the left side of the fairway giving themselves an easier shot into this challenging green. On the front left side, the green is protected by numerous bunkers. Depending on the pin location players will need a precise approach shot to avoid a difficult putt on this three-tiered green.

The three Par 5’s are No. 6, 14, and 18. No 14 is the only Par 5 that is listed over 600 yards. All three of the Par 5’s had a scoring average under par last season.

No. 14 is the longest of the Par 5’s and one of the more challenging holes on the entire course. It’s a narrow hole off the tee with tree trouble to the left and right. As players approach the green, more bunkers come into play. The green is slightly elevated sloping from the back right to the front left. If players miss on the front left side of the green, the ball will slope toward the bunker in the front.

Featured/ Signature Hole(s): 16

Key Statistics:

As the ZOZO Championship takes place at Accordia Golf Narashino Country Club, here are the key statistics to keep an eye on for this week’s event.

StatisticsPGA Tour AverageAccordia Golf Narashino Country Club
Driving Distance (Yards)283.67N/A
Driving Accuracy62%53%
GIR Percentage66%65%
Avg GIR Prox to Hole (Feet)29.17N/A
Scrambling Percentage58%59%
Avg 3 Putts / Round0.550.36

Per DataGolf, this is the favored skillset at Accordia Golf Narashino Country Club.

  • Strokes Gained: Tee to Green (<7,200 Yards)
    • Accordia Golf Narashino Country Club course layout combines challenging approach shots with strategic tee placements. Excelling in this area demonstrates a player’s capacity to consistently hit greens in regulation, creating more opportunities for birdies.
    • Leaders in this category in the last 24 Rounds:
      • Justin Thomas
      • J.J. Spaun
      • Collin Morikawa
      • Hideki Matsuyama
      • Sungjae Im
      • Xander Schauffele
      • Kevin Yu
      • Carson Young
      • Chan Kim
      • Sam Stevens

  • Strokes Gained: Approach
    • A strong iron game is crucial for success at Accordia Golf Narashino Country Club, as demonstrated by recent tournament history.
    • Leaders in this category in the last 24 Rounds:
      • Doug Ghim
      • Kurt Kitayama
      • J.J. Spaun
      • Mac Meissner
      • Gary Woodland
      • Xander Schauffele
      • Matt Kuchar
      • Andrew Novak
      • Harry Hall
      • Zac Blair

  • Good Drives Gained
    • Success this week will hinge on players’ ability to position themselves effectively off the tee. While the course’s considerable length underscores the significance of distance, precision holds equal importance.
    • Leaders in this category in the last 24 Rounds:
      • Ben Kohles
      • Gary Woodland
      • Collin Morikawa
      • Xander Schauffele
      • Matt Kuchar
      • Patrick Fishburn
      • Andrew Putnam
      • C.T. Pan
      • Mac Meissner
      • Carson Young

  • Strokes Gained: Putting (Bentgrass)
    • The Greens at Accordia Golf Narashino Country Club are bentgrass.
    • Leaders in this category in the last 24 Rounds:
      • Harry Hall
      • Max Greyserman
      • Xander Schauffele
      • Ben Silverman
      • Victor Perez
      • Justin Lower
      • Brendon Todd
      • Andrew Novak
      • K.H. Lee
      • Davis Riley

  • Par 3 Scoring
    • Accordia Golf Narashino Country Club features an unusual layout with five Par 3’s.
    • Leaders in this category in the last 24 Rounds:
      • Xander Schauffele
      • Harry Hall
      • Si Woo Kim
      • Nico Echavarria
      • Mac Meissner
      • Kensei Hirata
      • Jhonattan Vegas
      • C.T. Pan
      • Maverick McNealy
      • David Skinns

  • Par 5 Scoring: 550-600 Yards (x2)
    • Two of the three Par 5’s at Accordia Golf Narashino Country Club range between 550-600 Yards.
    • Leaders in this category in the last 24 Rounds:
      • Min Woo Lee
      • Kurt Kitayama
      • Jhonattan Vegas
      • Patrick Rodgers
      • Sahith Theegala
      • Eric Cole
      • Harry Hall
      • Ben Silverman
      • S.H. Kim
      • Patrick Fishburn

  • Proximity Gained: 175-200, 200+ Yards
    • Most approach shots at Accordia Golf Narashino Country Club come from the 175+ yard range at a volume much higher than the PGA Tour average.
  • Leaders in Proximity Gained: 175-200 Yards in the last 24 Rounds:
    • Kurt Kitayama
    • Hideki Matsuyama
    • David Skinns
    • Doug Ghim
    • Nate Lashley
    • Gary Woodland
    • Chandler Phillips
    • Xander Schauffele
    • Adam Svensson
    • Mac Meissner
  • Leaders in Proximity Gained: 200+ Yards in the last 24 Rounds:
    • Max Greyserman
    • Chandler Phillips
    • Kurt Kitayama
    • Xander Schauffele
    • Harry Hall
    • Mac Meissner
    • J.J. Spaun
    • Andrew Novak
    • Ryan Fox
    • Nick Taylor
  • Bogey Avoidance
    • Patience will be key this week as players navigate the layout and capitalize on limited scoring chances. Throughout the event, players must strive to minimize any black numbers scores on their cards.
    • Leaders in this category in the last 24 Rounds:
      • Xander Schauffele
      • Max Greyserman
      • Matt Kuchar
      • Collin Morikawa
      • Kurt Kitayama
      • Mac Meissner
      • Gary Woodland
      • Doug Ghim
      • Rico Hoey
      • Beau Hossler

  • Scrambling Gained
    • A player’s ability to recover and save par after missing the green in regulation will be crucial this week. The ability to recover from these situations and save par can make the difference between maintaining a competitive score and falling behind. High scrambling percentages contribute directly to lower scores.
    • Leaders in this category in the last 24 Rounds:
      • Hideki Matsuyama
      • Max Greyserman
      • Harry Hall
      • Brendon Todd
      • Kurt Kitayama
      • Satoshi Kodaira
      • Davis Riley
      • Si Woo Kim
      • Xander Schauffele
      • Collin Morikawa

  • Comparable Courses and Event History
    • According to the Data Golf Course History Tool, previous experience at Accordia Golf Narashino Country Club has shown to be beneficial for players.
  • Leaders in this category (Multiple Events Played, Accordia Golf Narashino Country Club, Last 5 Editions):
    • Beau Hossler
    • Hideki Matsuyama
    • Sahith Theegala
    • Sungjae Im
    • J.J. Spaun
    • Collin Morikawa
    • Luke List
    • Maverick McNealy
    • Xander Schauffele
    • Taylor Moore

The Field:

This year’s ZOZO Championship will feature a total of 78 competitors.

  • Here is the current basis of qualification for each entrant this week:
    • Top 60 Available on Current Season’s FedExCup Points list
    • Top 8 available from 2024 JGTO Prize Money List through Japan Open
    • Winner 2024 BMW Japan Golf Tour Championship Mori Building Cup
    • Current Season’s JGTO Membership
    • Sponsors Exemptions – Restricted
  • Previous Winners in the Field (Event):
    • Collin Morikawa (’23), Hideki Matsuyama (’21)
  • Debutants in the Field (Event):
    • Ben Kohles, Benjamin Silverman, Carson Young, Chandler Phillips, Christopher Gotterup, David Skinns, Jacob Bridgeman, Mac Meissner, Matthias Schmid, Max Greyserman, Nicolas Echavarria, Patrick Fishburn, Pierceson Coody, Ren Yonezawa, Rico Hoey, Ryan Fox, Sami Valimaki, Seamus Power, Taisei Shimizu, Takahiro Hataji, Takashi Ogiso, Victor Perez, Vincent Whaley, Yuta Sugiura
  • Sponsors Exemptions:
    • Gary Woodland, Satoshi Kodaira, Zac Blair, Joel Dahmen, Takahiro Hataji
  • Players with ties to Japan in the Field:
    • Birthplace:
      • Takahiro Hataji
      • Kensei Hirata
      • Ryo Hisatsune
      • Shugo Imahira
      • Ryo Ishikawa
      • Hiroshi Iwata
      • Takumi Kanaya
      • Naoyuki Kataoka
      • Yuto Katsuragawa
      • Ryosuke Kinoshita
      • Satoshi Kodaira
      • Hideki Matsuyama
      • Takashi Ogiso
      • Kaito Onishi
      • Taisei Shimizu
      • Yuta Sugiura
      • Ren Yonezawa

  • Notable Withdraws/ Changes:
    • Emiliano Grillo WD: Carson Young IN

The Odds:

Here are the current favorites for this week’s event, along with a summary of their recent form and course history:

Xander Schauffele (+450) is having a career-best season, winning two major championships. His last three starts include a T2 at the FedEx St. Jude Championship, T5 at the BMW Championship, and T4 at the TOUR Championship. Schauffele has competed in all five editions of this tournament, with three top-20 finishes.

Collin Morikawa (+650) makes his first start since finishing runner-up at the TOUR Championship. While he came close to a win this season, his last TOUR victory was at the 2023 ZOZO Championship. This will be his sixth appearance in the event.

Hideki Matsuyama (+750) returns after finishing T9 at the TOUR Championship, having withdrawn from the BMW Championship due to back pain. This season, he won The Genesis Invitational and the FedEx St. Jude Championship. Matsuyama will make his sixth appearance here, where he won in 2021.

Sungjae Im (+1400) makes his first start after finishing 7th at the TOUR Championship and T11 at the BMW Championship. This is his fifth appearance in the event, with his best finish being T3 in 2019.

Tournament Props:

Playoff:

  • Will There Be a Playoff at the ZOZO Championship? (Yes +350 / No -475)

A playoff has never determined the winner of the ZOZO Championship.

Hole-in-One:

  • Will There Be A Hole-in-One at the ZOZO Championship? (Yes +100 / No -140)

In 2023, there were no holes-in-one recorded at the tournament.

Recent Horses for Courses (Accordia Golf Narashino Country Club):

ZOZO ChampionshipZOZO ChampionshipZOZO ChampionshipZOZO ChampionshipZOZO Championship
Accordia Golf Narashino Country ClubAccordia Golf Narashino Country ClubAccordia Golf Narashino Country ClubSherwood Country ClubAccordia Golf Narashino Country Club
GolferEvents PlayedScoring Avg. (per round)20232022202120202019
Beau Hossler268.00216X
Sahith Theegala268.38195X
Sungjae Im468.441229X3
J.J Spaun268.50625X
Collin Morikawa568.60WON457X22
Hideki Matsuyama568.305140WONX2
Luke List268.75297X
Maverick McNealy268.751225X
Xander Schauffele568.8038928X10

Recent Donkeys for Courses (Accordia Golf Narashino Country Club):

ZOZO ChampionshipZOZO ChampionshipZOZO ChampionshipZOZO ChampionshipZOZO Championship
Accordia Golf Narashino Country ClubAccordia Golf Narashino Country ClubAccordia Golf Narashino Country ClubSherwood Country ClubAccordia Golf Narashino Country Club
GolferEvents PlayedScoring Avg. (per round)20232022202120202019
Kaito Onishi272.006476X
Shugo Imahira571.30687818X59
Naoyuki Kataoka271.256466X
C.T. Pan370.835957X59

Previous Winners, Scores and Prices:

  • 2023: Collin Morikawa (-14) – Accordia Golf Narashino Country Club
    • Price: 11-1
  • 2022: Keegan Bradley (-15) – Accordia Golf Narashino Country Club
    • Price: 40-1
  • 2021: Hideki Matsuyama (-15) – Accordia Golf Narashino Country Club
    • Price: 16-1
  • 2020: Patrick Cantlay (-23) – Sherwood Country Club
    • Price: 28-1
  • 2019: Tiger Woods (-19) – Accordia Golf Narashino Country Club
    • Price: 33-1

Previous Winners Incoming Form (Last 5 Starts):

  • 2023: Collin Morikawa
    • T6 – TOUR Championship (PGA)
    • T25 – BMW Championship (PGA)
    • T13 – FedEx St. Jude Championship (PGA)
    • MC – The Open Championship (MAJ)
    • T2 – Rocket Mortgage Classic (PGA)
  • 2022: Keegan Bradley
    • T5 – Sanderson Farms Championship (PGA)
    • T58 – BMW Championship (PGA)
    • MC – FedEx St. Jude Championship (PGA)
    • T44 – Rocket Mortgage Classic (PGA)
    • MC – The Open Championship (MAJ)

  • 2021: Hideki Matsuyama
    • T59 – THE CJ CUP (PGA)
    • T67 – Shriners Children’s Open (PGA)
    • T6 – Fortinet Championship (PGA)
    • T26 – TOUR Championship (PGA)
    • T46 – BMW Championship (PGA)

  • 2020: Patrick Cantlay
    • T38 – THE CJ CUP (PGA)
    • T8 – Shriners Hospitals for Children Open (PGA)
    • T43 – U.S. Open (MAJ)
    • T12 – BMW Championship (PGA)
    • MC – THE NORTHERN TRUST (PGA)
  • 2019: Tiger Woods
    • T37 – BMW Championship (PGA)
    • WD – THE NORTHERN TRUST (PGA)
    • MC – The Open Championship (MAJ)
    • T21 – U.S. Open (MAJ)
    • T9 – the Memorial Tournament (PGA)

Previous Winners Finishes at Event:

2023: Collin Morikawa

2022202120202019
Accordia Golf Narashino Country ClubAccordia Golf Narashino Country ClubSherwood Country ClubAccordia Golf Narashino Country Club
Collin MorikawaT45T7T50T22

2022: Keegan Bradley

20212019
Accordia Golf Narashino Country ClubAccordia Golf Narashino Country Club
Keegan BradleyT7T13

2021: Hideki Matsuyama

20202019
Sherwood Country ClubAccordia Golf Narashino Country Club
Hideki MatsuyamaT282

2020: Patrick Cantlay

  • Tournament Debut

2019: Tiger Woods

  • Tournament Debut

Picks:

Outrights:

  • Sahith Theegala (+1800) – DraftKings
    • Risk 0.45 to win 8.10 Units

  • Kurt Kitayama (+2500) – BetMGM
    • Risk 0.32 to win 8.00 Units

  • Si Woo Kim (+3500) – DraftKings
    • Risk 0.23 to win 8.05 Units

  • Matt Kuchar (+8000) – FanDuel
    • Risk 0.10 to win 8.00 Units

Total Risk on Outrights: 1.10 Units

Top 20 (including ties):

  • Rickie Fowler (+160) – DraftKings
    • Risk 1.00 to win 1.60 Units

  • Gary Woodland (+170) – DraftKings
    • Risk 1.00 to win 1.70 Units

Total Risk on Top 20s: 2.00 Units

Total Risk on the ZOZO Championship: 3.10 Units 

Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting. Any feedback whether positive or negative is always encouraged.