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Sunday Free Play Video:

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5 Selections:
NFL: NO/Atl
NFL: Jac/Hou
NFL: Den/NYJ
NFL: Cle/LVR
NFL: Buf/Bal

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Saturday Free Play Video:

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3 Selections:
NCAAF: AF/Wyo
NCAAF: Utah/Ari
NCAAF: Cin/Tech

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College Football Free Picks Friday – Sports Betting – Illinois vs Penn State

Illinois vs Penn State -17.5 O/U 48

This total really stuck out to me when I saw the screen.   Illinois if anything has had a very solid defense this year allowing only 12.5 points per game at 4.69 yards per play.   This was against a pretty good schedule including Kansas, and Nebraska.   Penn State’s defense is also very solid ranking 10th in success rate allowing only 13 points per game at 3.9 yards per play.   The Illinois offense has been just average at best ranking 54th in success rate while Penn State ranks 10th.   I do not think that Penn State has faced a very good defense like Illinois as their toughest game was against Bowling Green.   I think the total in this game is a tad to high at 48.   The Illini rank a very slow 120th in tempo this year while Penn State ranks 92nd.   Neither team will want to make this game a shootout.   There are a lot of ways that this total hits as I do not expect a lot of points from the Illini as the spread suggests.   Take the under.

Under 48 – 2 stars

Friday Free Play Video:

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3 Selections:
NCAAF: Was/Rut
NCAAF: VT/MIA
MLB: Cin/CHC

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NFL Week 4 Sharp Money Movement

As Of Friday 9/27

Sharp Money On:

  • Buccaneers +3 to +1.5 hosting the Eagles – 43% tickets and 69% of the money.
  • Chargers +8.5 to +7 hosting the Chiefs – 36% tickets and 46% of the money.

Sharp Totals:

  • Eagles vs Buccaneers under 47 to 42.5 – 45% tickets and 59% of the money.
  • Saints vs Falcons under 44.5 to 42 – 36% tickets and 49% of the money.
  • Commanders vs Cardinals over 45 to 50.5 – 42% tickets and 67% of the money.
  • Titans vs Dolphins under 40 to 36 – 22% tickets and 80% of the money.

College Football Week 5 Sharp Money Movement

As Of Friday 9/27

Sharp Money On:

  • Navy -2.5 to -3.5 at UAB – 74% tickets and 100% of the money.
  • Indiana -4.5 to -7 hosting Maryland – 85% tickets and 92% of the money.
  • Boston College -10.5 to -12.5 hosting Western Kentucky – 64% tickets and 87% of the money.
  • UCONN -2.5 to -5.5 hosting Buffalo – 77% tickets and 95% of the money.
  • Iowa State -11 to -14.5 at Houston – 89% tickets and 99% of the money.

Sharp Totals:

  • Oklahoma vs Auburn under 55 to 44.5 – 24% tickets and 55% of the money.
  • Colorado vs UCF under 64.5 to 62.5 – 24% tickets and 59% of the money.
  • Old Dominion vs Bowling Green over 49.5 to 51.5 – 86% tickets and 99% of the money.
  • New Mexico vs New Mexico State under 58 to 55 – 70% tickets and 81% of the money.
  • Washington State vs Boise State over 61.5 to 64.5 – 34% tickets and 81% of the money.

College Football Saturday Super Plays – Sports Betting – Louisville vs Notre Dame

Cincinnati vs Texas Tech -2.5 O/U 59.5

This should be a competitive game.  I have to give Cincinnati some credit here at 3-1.  They have shown to have good defense and they seem to take care of the ball on offense.  In saying that, I still am somewhat low on this team.   Beating Miami Ohio, Houston and Towson isn’t exactly reason to think that they are good.  Cincinnati allowed over 6 yards per play so far against the bad teams in the league.  Texas Tech also allows over 6 yards per play on defense, but at least they had played two decent power teams in Washington State, and last week against ASU.  Quarterback Behren Morton is a solid 63% completion with 12 touchdowns and only two interceptions.   I have him rated higher than Brendan Sorsby.  Texas Tech ranks 26th in explosive plays.  This is where I think that they can get Cincinnati at home being that they really haven’t been tested on defense.  This is a short spread so I will lay the points.

Texas Tech -2.5 – 2 stars

Louisville vs Notre Dame -6 O/U 48.5

This is going to be one of the best games of the weekend, but I do not understand how this spread got so high.   Notre Dame has shown weakness this year in clutch situations as we have seen vs Northern Illinois.  Now that they have been brought back to earth, let’s look at these numbers.  Louisville ranks 11th in offensive success rate, while Notre Dame ranks 74th.  Louisville ranks 16th in defensive success rate, while Notre Dame ranks 26th.  It is clear that the Irish have had a harder schedule than the Cardinals, but the Cardinals showed me last week against a great rushing team in Georgia Tech that they can do what they have to do against Notre Dame to slow down their run game.  I think that this is a much closer game than the spread indicates at 6.  Both of these coaches are familiar with each other as they just played last year, where the Cardinals won by 13 points.  Louisville is 4-0 against the spread over their last four games vs the Irish.  Take Louisville

Louisville +6 – 2 stars

Thursday Video:

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3 Selections:
NFL: Cowboys/Giants
NCAAF: Army/Temple
MLB: Padres/Dodgers

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Podcast 628 – 73 – 24 – NFL Week 5 – NCAAF Week 5 – Sports Betting

The OddsBreakers Sports Betting Podcast
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We have a great show for you today!  Kiev is still on vacation in San Diego.  It once again will be The OddsBreakers lite today.  We talk some College and NFL football games with some Free Plays!   Kiev also talks about some early sharp movement for the weekend.  Should you have any questions for the podcast, or games that you want us to cap during our shows, please message us at Info@TheOddsBreakers.com.  Have a wonderful week!

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NFL Week 3 Misleading Final Scores

  • The Bears out-gained the Colts 395 to 306 yet lost 21-16.  A 3-2 turnover ratio and for sacks killed the Bears
  • The 49ers out-gained the Rams 425 to 296 yet lost 27-24.   A 1-0 turnover ratio and coaching blunders killed the niners.
  • Much of the Texans yards were garbage time.
  • The Eagles out-gained the Saints 460 to 219 yet won 15-12.  A 2-1 turnover ratio made the game closer as well as poor Eagles red zone.