Utah out-gained Arizona 364 to 358 yet lost 23-10. A 2-1 turnover ratio and the Cam Rising injury saga continues.
Cincinnati out-gained Texas Tech 555 to 482 yet lost 44-41. A 2-1 turnover ratio and poor red zone defense got the Bearcats.
Rice out-gained Charlotte 463 to 304 yet lost 21-20. A 1-0 turnover ratio and poor fourth down efficiency killed the Owls.
Troy out-gained Louisiana Monroe 272 to 247 yet lost 13-9. They won the turnover battle 1-0, but terrible red zone efficiency slashed the Trojans.
Bowling Green out-gained Old Dominion 399 to 333 yet lost 30-27. A 1-0 turnover ratio and poor rushing the football killed the Falcons.
UTSA out-gained East Carolina 456 to 341 yet lost 30-20. A 3-2 turnover ratio and poor red zone defense flattened the Road Runners.
Louisville out-gained Notre Dame 395 to 280 yet lost 31-24. A 3-2 turnover ratio and poor special teams killed the Cardinal. Bad quarterback play as well by Tyler Shough.
Auburn out-gained Oklahoma 482 to 291 yet lost 27-21. A 1-0 turnover ratio that was a pick 6 and terrible coaching killed the Tigers.
Arkansas out-gained Texas A&M 379 to 297 yet lost 21-17. A 3-0 turnover ratio roasted the Hogs.
UNLV only out-gained Fresno State 450 to 349 yet won 59 to 14. A nasty 4-0 turnover ratio and poor special teams destroyed the Bulldogs.
UCF’s yards were mainly garbage yards.
Minnesota out-gained Michigan 296 to 241 yet lost 27-24. Some garbage yards, but a 2-1 turnover ratio smashed the Gophers.
Baylor out-gained BYU 387 to 367 yet lost 34-28. Equal turnover at 2 but horrible third down efficiency 3/13 killed the Bears.
Northern Illinois out-gained NC State 283 to 171 yet lost 24-17. A bad 4-0 turnover ratio did in the Huskies.
Western Kentucky out-gained Boston College 355 to 279 yet lost 21-20. A bad 3-2 turnover ratio and a choke at the end killed the Hill toppers.
Washington out-gained Rutgers 521 to 299 yet lost 21-18. Equal turnovers but bad 3rd down efficiency killed the Huskies.
The Sanderson Farms Championship is the second event of the FedExCup Fall, where players are competing to secure their spot in the top 125 of the rankings. Those who finish in the top 125 will earn full PGA TOUR status for the upcoming season, while players ranked 126-150 will receive conditional status for the 2024 season. Additionally, players outside the top 125 will have the opportunity to improve or regain their TOUR status through the PGA TOUR Q-School presented by Korn Ferry.
Pre-Tournament Storylines:
Luke List Aims for Back-to-Back Titles
Defending champion Luke List, who claimed victory in a thrilling five-man playoff last season, is looking to make history by becoming the first player in 50 years to win the Sanderson Farms Championship in consecutive years.
Korn Ferry Points Leader Chooses PGA Tour Over Finals
Matt McCarty, the Korn Ferry Tour Points Leader, secured a Three-Victory Promotion and locked up the No. 1 spot on the Points List. He will skip this week’s Korn Ferry Tour Championship in favor of competing at the Sanderson Farms Championship after an impressive summer run that included three wins in six starts.
Rickie Fowler is making his return to the PGA Tour for the first time since the birth of his second daughter, Nellie, in August. This will be Fowler’s debut at the Sanderson Farms Championship, with his last appearance on tour coming at The Open Championship in July.
PGA TOUR University Leader Michael Thorbjornsen Eyes FedExCup Push
Michael Thorbjornsen, the No. 1 player in PGA TOUR University, is looking to climb inside the Top 125 in the FedExCup Fall standings. Currently ranked No. 134, he returns to action this week after finishing T50 at the Procore Championship.
Presidents Cup Connections in the Field
Mackenzie Hughes, a 2022 Sanderson Farms winner and participant in the Presidents Cup, is the only player from the tournament in the field. Additionally, Camilo Villegas, assistant captain for the International Team, is also competing this week.
Title Sponsor Transition on the Horizon
Sanderson Farms, the tournament’s title sponsor since 2013, announced in August that it will step down from its sponsorship role after this year despite having a contract that runs through 2026. As this year’s tournament approaches, tournament director Steve Jent is now tasked with securing a new sponsor for 2025 and beyond. Given the event’s past challenges in finding a title sponsor, the coming months will be crucial in determining the future of the Sanderson Farms Championship.
The Sanderson Farms Championship began in 1968 as the Magnolia Classic and has since become a staple on the PGA Tour. Initially, the event was considered an “alternate” or “opposite-field” tournament, held alongside major competitions like the Ryder Cup or larger tournaments. Because of this, it typically attracted players who were not in the elite field at those marquee events. Despite its status, the tournament remained a crucial part of the PGA Tour calendar, offering players an opportunity to secure important FedExCup points and establish themselves on the tour. Throughout its early history, the event was hosted at various locations, including Hattiesburg Country Club, Annandale Golf Club, and later its current home, the Country Club of Jackson, in Jackson, Mississippi.
In 2013, the tournament secured its title sponsor, Sanderson Farms, a poultry company based in Mississippi, which helped solidify its future on the PGA Tour. This partnership significantly raised the profile of the event, and in 2019, the Sanderson Farms Championship was elevated to a full FedExCup points event and also rescheduled to September, as the second tournament of the PGA Tour season. This upgrade meant the winner would receive a Masters Tournament invitation, which further boosted the tournament’s prestige and drew a stronger field of competitors. The event has also become known for its philanthropic efforts, with proceeds benefiting the Friends of Children’s Hospital, a non-profit supporting pediatric care in Mississippi.
The Country Club of Jackson has a rich history dating back to its founding in 1914. Located in the capital city of Mississippi, the club was established to provide a premier recreational and social venue for the community. Originally, the club featured a nine-hole golf course, which was later expanded as the club grew in size and reputation. Over the years, the Country Club of Jackson has undergone several renovations and enhancements to maintain its status as one of the top golf and country clubs in the region. In the mid-1960s, the course was completely redesigned by prominent golf course architect Dick Wilson, whose work brought a modern flair to the club’s layout.
The club gained national recognition when it became the host venue for the Sanderson Farms Championship in 2014, a prestigious event on the PGA Tour. This marked a significant moment in the club’s history, as it became home to one of Mississippi’s premier sporting events. The Country Club of Jackson’s 27-hole layout, which includes the Azalea, Dogwood, and Cypress nines, provides a scenic and challenging setting for the tournament, showcasing the course’s undulating fairways, water hazards, and strategic bunkering.
Tournament Records:
72-Hole Record (Sanderson Farms Championship):
263, Dan Halldorson (1986 at Hattiesburg GC)
18-Hole Record (Sanderson Farms Championship):
61, Keith Clearwater (2nd round, 1996 at Annandale GC)
Most Wins:
2 – Dwight Nevil (1973, 1974), Brian Henninger (1994, 1999), Fred Funk (1998, 2004)
Largest Margin of Victory:
5 – Ryan Armour (2017), Frank Conner (1988)
Course Records:
72-Hole Record (The Country Club of Jackson):
266, Sam Burns (2021)
18-Hole Record (The Country Club of Jackson):
62, Roberto Castro (1st round, 2015)
Course Guide/ Scorecard:
The Dogwood-Azalea course at the Country Club of Jackson was designed by John Fought and Mike Gogel. “Dogwood” refers to the front nine and “Azalea” refers to the back nine. It is a Par 72 that plays 7,461 yards. The course features four Par 3’s, ten Par 4’s, and four Par 5’s. It’s a resort layout that’s fairly wide open allowing longer hitters to attack this course. In terms of the rough, it’s some of the least penal on Tour. Water comes into play on five holes but mainly on the Par 3’s.
This is one of the easier courses on Tour as seen by the historical scoring average, we should see another winner finish around -20.
The four Par 3’s range from 168 to 223 yards. Last year, Hole No. 13 was the only par 3 to have a scoring average under par.
No. 7, 214 yards, Par 3: Players have a fairly straightforward long iron into this green. However a miss long or right can make for a difficult up and down. A par on this hole is a good score and it had a scoring average over par last year.
No. 13, 168 yards, Par 3: While this is the shortest hole on the course, swirling winds come into play and can knock a high iron down. The green is protected by two front bunkers and one hidden over the left side.
There are ten Par 4’s at the Country Club of Jackson with the majority (six) of them ranging between 400 and 450 yards. In terms of scoring average, the two toughest Par 4’s last year were No. 16 (+0.164) and No. 18 (+0.099).
No. 8, 403 yards, Par 4: Is a dog-leg left where an accurate tee shot is crucial. Since it’s only 400 yards, most players will club down here and try to avoid the creek runs along the hole on the left side. On a player’s approach shot, they’ll have to navigate the two bunkers that protect the green in the front.
No. 16, 479 yards, Par 4: This is the signature hole on the course and will require two demanding shots. A swamp runs along the entire left side of the hole and crosses the fairway approximately 80 yards from the hole. If players choose the “bailout” option trees come into play and are forced to hit towards the water on their approach. In addition to the swamp on the left, the green is protected by a large bunker on the right.
There are four Par 5’s on the course, No. 3, No. 5, No. 11, and No. 14. All of these holes had a scoring average under par in 2023. No. 11 was the easiest Par 5 on the course last year with a scoring average of 0.412 below par. Hole No. 5, was the toughest Par 5 last year due to it being the only Par 5 that measures over 600 yards.
No. 5, 612 yards, Par 5: This is the longest hole on the course and the toughest of the Par 5’s. Off the tee, players will try to navigate their ball between two fairway bunkers putting them in position to try and go for it in two. If they do try and reach the green in two, they cannot miss short-left as a pond comes into play. The green itself is surrounded by multiple bunkers as well.
No. 14, 584 yards, Par 5: Players will need an accurate tee shot off the tee. The left side is woodlands, while on the right side, trees can come into play. Even if they do find the fairway, they can end up in one of the fairway bunkers. On their approach shot, they’ll have to avoid the two front bunkers.
Per DataGolf, this is the favored skillset at the Country Club of Jackson.
Strokes Gained: Off the Tee
Success this week will hinge on players’ ability to position themselves effectively off the tee. While the course’s considerable length underscores the significance of distance, precision holds equal importance.
Leaders in this category in the last 24 Rounds:
Cameron Champ
Patrick Fishburn
Kevin Dougherty
Keith Mitchell
Jhonattan Vegas
Carson Young
Seamus Power
Hayden Springer
Alex Smalley
Joe Highsmith
Strokes Gained: Approach
Having a strong iron game will be important this week if players want to succeed at the Country Club of Jackson.
Leaders in this category in the last 24 Rounds:
Doug Ghim
David Lipsky
J.J. Spaun
Keith Micthell
Chez Reavie
Matt Kuchar
Ben Griffin
Chan Kim
Jhonattan Vegas
Andrew Novak
Strokes Gained: Putting (Bermudagrass)
The Greens at the Country Club of Jackson are Champion bermudagrass .110”.
Leaders in this category in the last 24 Rounds:
Taylor Montgomery
S.H. Kim
Chad Ramey
Mackenzie Hughes
Austin Smotherman
Garrick Higgo
Matt Kuchar
Harris English
Mac Meissner
Pierceson Coody
Par 3 Scoring: 200-225 Yards (x2)
Two of the four Par 3’s at the Country Club of Jackson range between 200-225 Yards.
Leaders in Par 3 Scoring: 200-225 Yards in the last 24 Rounds:
Sam Ryder
Michael Kim
Keith Mitchell
Chez Reavie
Nick Hardy
Jhonattan Vegas
Maverick McNealy
Zac Blair
Cody Gribble
Brice Garnett
Par 4 Scoring: 400-450 Yards (x6)
Six of the ten Par 4’s at the Country Club of Jackson range between 450-500 Yards.
Leaders in Par 4 Scoring: 400-450 Yards in the last 24 Rounds:
Roger Sloan
Adam Svensson
Alex Smalley
Ryp Hisatsune
Chan Kim
Zac Blair
Ben Griffin
Keith Mitchell
J.J. Spaun
Justin Lower
Par 5 Scoring: 550-600 Yards (x3)
Three of the four Par 5’s at the Country Club of Jackson range between 550-600 Yards.
Leaders in Par 5 Scoring: 550-600 Yards in the last 24 Rounds:
Eric Cole
Jhonattan Vegas
Patrick Fishburn
Hayden Springer
Paul Barjon
Davis Riley
Keith Mitchell
Matt NeSmith
Troy Merritt
Adam Svensson
Proximity Gained: 100-125 Yards
Most approach shots at the Country Club of Jackson come from the 100-125 yard range at a volume much higher than the PGA Tour average.
Leaders in Proximity Gained: 100-125 Yards in the last 24 Rounds:
Eric Cole
Roger Sloan
Taylor Montgomery
Kevin Streelman
Doug Ghim
J.J. Spaun
David Lipsky
Pierceson Coody
Zac Blair
Ben Kholes
Birdies or Better Gained
Players will need to take advantage of every scoring opportunity this week if they want to put themselves into contention.
Leaders in this category in the last 24 Rounds:
Keith Mitchell
J.J. Spaun
Michael Thorbjornsen
Zach Johnson
Chandler Phillips
Maverick McNealy
Justin Lower
Jhonattan Vegas
Andrew Novak
Pierceson Coody
Comparable Courses and Event History
Looking at the Data Golf Course History Tool, prior experience at the Country Club of Jackson has proven to be slightly advantageous.
Leaders in this category (Multiple Events Played, Last 6 Editions):
Cameron Champ
Garrick Higgo
Benjamin Griffin
Nick Hardy
Mackenzie Hughes
C.T. Pan
Bill Haas
Henrik Norlander
Alex Smalley
Seonghyeon Kim
The Field:
This year’s Sanderson Farms Championship will feature a total of 132 competitors.
Here is the current basis of qualification for each entrant this week:
Top 125 FedExCup Fall Point Lists
Top 70 on Prior Year FEC Playoff & Elig List through the Playoffs
Tournament Winner in Past Two Seasons
DP World Tour / Korn Ferry Tour / Q-School Category – Reordered
Open Qualifying
Sponsors Exemptions – Unrestricted
PGA Section Champion\Player of the Year
Winner – PGA/U.S. Open Championship
Reorder Category – Cat. 37 thru 44
Career Money Exemption
Major Medical Extension
Previous Winners in the Field (Event):
Luke List (’23), Mackenzie Hughes (’22), Cameron Champ (’18), Ryan Armour (’17), Cody Gribble (’16), Peter Malnati (’15), Bill Hass (’10)
Debutants in the Field (Event):
Adrien Dumont de Chassart, Blaine Hale, Jr., Chan Kim, Christopher Gotterup, Hayden Springer, Hunter Logan, Jacob Bridgeman, Joe Highsmith, Mac Meissner, Matt McCarty, Michael Thorbjornsen, Nick Dunlap, Parker Coody, Patrick Fishburn, Pierceson Coody, Raul Pereda, Reed Hughes, Rickie Fowler, Rico Hoey, Ryan Fox, Ryan McCormick, Ryo Hisatsune, Sami Valimaki, Tom Whitney, Trace Crowe
Sponsors Exemptions:
Henrik Norlander, Hunter Logan, Cody Gribble, Ryan Armour, Bill Haas, Brandt Snedeker
Here are the current favorites for this week’s event, along with a summary of their recent form and course history:
Nick Dunlap (+2200) secured his first two PGA Tour victories last season, winning both the American Express and the Barracuda Championship. He’s coming off strong performances, with a T31 finish at the BMW Championship and a T5 at the FedEx St. Jude Championship. This will be his debut at the Sanderson Farms Championship.
Seamus Power (+2200) finished T26 in his most recent professional outing at the Amgen Irish Open. This marks his seventh appearance in the Sanderson Farms Championship, where he has only cracked the top 20 twice in his previous six starts.
Keith Mitchell (+2200) ended his season on a high note, finishing T12 at the Wyndham Championship, though he didn’t advance to the second round of the FedExCup Playoffs. He kept up his momentum with a 12th-place finish at the Procore Championship, the first event of the FedExCup Fall series. Despite four prior attempts at this event, Mitchell has yet to make the cut.
Mackenzie Hughes (+2500), the only player in the field to have competed in last week’s Presidents Cup, finished T4 at the Procore Championship, continuing his strong play. A past winner of the Sanderson Farms Championship in 2022, this will be his fifth appearance at the event.
Maverick McNealy (+2500) missed the cut at the Procore Championship in his last start. He’s making his fourth appearance at the Sanderson Farms Championship, with his best finish coming last year when he placed T17.
Will There Be a Playoff at the Sanderson Farms Championship? (Yes +350 / No -500)
A playoff has determined the Sanderson Farms winner two years in a row and three of the last five seasons. In 2023, Luke List defeated Ludvig Aberg, Ben Griffin, Henrik Norlander, and Scott Stallings in a five man playoff. In the year prior, Mackenzie Hughes defeated Sepp Straka.
Previous Winners Scores, Prices, and Strokes Gained (Rank at Tournament):
2023: Luke List (-18)
Price: 50-1
SG: Off the Tee
SG: Tee to Green
SG: Approach
SG: Around the Green
SG: Putting
Luke List
19th
14th
48th
6th
7th
2022: Mackenzie Hughes (-17)
Price: 110-1
SG: Off the Tee
SG: Tee to Green
SG: Approach
SG: Around the Green
SG: Putting
Mackenzie Hughes
57th
1st
6th
4th
14th
2021: Sam Burns (-22)
Price: 16-1
SG: Off the Tee
SG: Tee to Green
SG: Approach
SG: Around the Green
SG: Putting
Sam Burns
1st
1st
2nd
34th
57th
2020: Sergio Garcia (-19)
Price: 70-1
SG: Off the Tee
SG: Tee to Green
SG: Approach
SG: Around the Green
SG: Putting
Sergio Garcia
1st
1st
3rd
46th
28th
2019: Sebastian Munoz (-18)
Price: 66-1
SG: Off the Tee
SG: Tee to Green
SG: Approach
SG: Around the Green
SG: Putting
Sebastian Munoz
4th
9th
20th
40th
5th
Previous Winners Incoming Form (Last 5 Starts):
2023: Luke List
T25 – Fortinent Championship (PGA)
T35 – Genesis Scottish Open (PGA)
WD- Rocket Mortgage Classic (PGA)
T33 – Travelers Championship (PGA)
MC – U.S. Open (MAJ)
2022: Mackenzie Hughes
T25 – Fortinet Championship (PGA)
T58 – BMW Championship (PGA)
T46 – FedEx St. Jude Championship (PGA)
MC – Wyndham Championship (PGA)
MC – Rocket Mortgage Classic (PGA)
2021: Sam Burns
T18 – TOUR Championship (PGA)
8 – BMW Championship (PGA)
T21 – THE NORTHERN TRUST (PGA)
T2 – WGC-FedEx St. Jude Invitational (PGA)
T76 – The Open Championship (MAJ)
2020: Sergio Garcia
MC – U.S. Open (MAJ)
MC – Safeway Open (MAJ)
T66 – Wyndham Championship (PGA)
MC – PGA Championship (PGA)
T35 – WGC-FedEx St. Jude Invitational (PGA)
2019: Sebastian Munoz
T7 – A Military Tribute (PGA)
T43 – THE NORTHERN TRUST (PGA)
T48 – Wyndham Championship (PGA)
11 – Barracuda Championship (PGA)
T9 – Barbasol Championship (PGA)
Previous Winners Finishes at Event:
2023: Luke List
2022
2021
2020
2019
2016
2015
2013
Luke List
73
17
MC
MC
T2
T28
MC
2022: Mackenzie Hughes
2021
2016
Mackenzie Hughes
T35
T26
2021: Sam Burns
2020
2019
2018
2017
Sam Burns
MC
T45
T3
T43
2020: Sergio Garcia
Tournament Debut
2019: Sebastian Munoz
2018
2016
Mackenzie Hughes
T50
T35
Picks:
Apologies for the lack of write-ups this week, as I’ve been traveling. If you’d like to know the reasoning behind any of my selections, feel free to send me a direct message on X (Twitter).
Outrights:
J.J. Spaun (+3300) – FanDuel
Risk 0.25 to win 8.25 Units
Patrick Fishburn (+3500) – FanDuel
Risk 0.23 to win 8.05 Units
Taylor Moore (+5000) – BetMGM
Risk 0.16 to win 8.00 Units
Doug Ghim (+5500) – BetMGM
Risk 0.15 to win 8.25 Units
Henrik Norlander (+7000) – FanDuel
Risk 0.12 to win 8.40 Units
Pierceson Coody (+8000) – FanDuel
Risk 0.10 to win 8.00 Units
Nick Hardy (+9000) – FanDuel
Risk 0.09 to win 8.10 Units
Total Risk on Outrights: 1.10 Units
Top 20 (including ties):
Rico Hoey (+200) – DraftKings
Risk 1.00 to win 2.00 Units
Mac Meissner (+200) – DraftKings
Risk 1.00 to win 2.00 Units
Charley Hoffman (+220) – DraftKings
Risk 1.00 to win 2.20 Units
Total Risk on Top 20s: 3.00 Units
Total Risk on the Sanderson Farms Championship: 4.10 Units
Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting. Any feedback whether positive or negative is always encouraged.
Following our big football/baseball weekend we’re now going to turn our attention on Tuesday to the MLB Playoffs.
My Analysis today turns Miller Park (Yes I know it’s not called that anymore, but when you live in Wisconsin that is what it will always be) in Milwaukee where the Brewers will host the Mets at 5:32 ET. The current line sits with the Brewers as the favorites at -147 with the Mets getting +127. The Over/Under is at 7.5 juiced to the under at -120. The roof will be closed.
These two teams just played each other this weekend with the Brewers taking two out of three. The Mets had to play two games yesterday and got the win they needed to sneak into the playoffs.
The Mets will start Luis Severino who has a 3.91 ERA and a 4.21 xFIP. K/9 sits a 7.96 with the BB/9 at 2.97. If he has his command his stuff is great with three plus pitches in his heater, cutter and slider. He has quality starts in four of his last five outings, and his K-rate has gone way up since the start of August.
The Brewers will throw Freddy Peralta and his 3.68 ERA and 3.93 xFIP. He has a 10.36 K/9 and a 3.52 BB/9. Peralta has struggled to get deep into games not having gone six innings in the entire month of September. He throws a lot of pitches, but most of them are effective with plus pitch values on his fastball, curveball and his top pitch his change-up.
These two teams put up very similar offensive numbers with the Mets finishing 9th in OPS and the Brewers in 10th. The Mets rely more on the long-ball while the Brewers manufacture runs through working more walks and stealing bases where they finished second in MLB with 217.
With the overall teams being so similar my handicap comes down to a few things. Five of the Brewers likely starting lineup has hit over .333 in their careers vs Severino. Only Jesse Winker, who returns to the lineup today from injury is over that number against Peralta for the Mets, but he does have 2 career long balls against Peralta. I give that advantage to the Brewers.
The second and most important piece of the handicap is that the Brewers didn’t have to play two games yesterday in Atlanta. Edwin Diaz has thrown 66 pitches over the last two days to get them into the playoffs and will likely be unavailable today. Phil Maton has gone the last three days and his status is up in the air. The Mets will likely only have one lefty available in the pen today as well with David Peterson and Joey Lucchesi starting Sunday and Monday. It is possible they let Jose Quintana go some today if needed, but unlikely.
Yes it is a spot play more than anything, but the value is right with the schedule the Mets have had.
We have a GREAT show for you today! Another week in the books and now it’s time to recap and do some analysis! First, Kiev recaps the weekend with the good, the bad, and the ugly. Next, we talk some misleading final scores with brief box score analysis. Then, Kiev talks about the NFL and College Football betting spots for next week. Who could let down? Who has a short week? After that, we give out a Free Play for the upcoming weekend. Finally Dave comes back as we break down some fantasy football. We talk key injuries, waiver wire, Should you have any questions for the podcast, or games that you want us to cap during our shows, please message us at Info@TheOddsBreakers.com. Have a wonderful week!
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We had one hell of a weekend. Almost all of my plays in sports gambling are 1-2 Units. I don’t have a 10 Unit Play of the century or a NFL 25 Unit Game of the week. Every once in a while you’ll see me throw a 2.5 or 3 unit play out there on something I really like. So for me to compile a +14.1 Unit weekend is a rarity. We started it off with a 7-1 College Football Saturday, and followed it up with a 5-3 NFL slate yesterday. Then we cashed our MLB Season Win Total futures last night at 4-2. I have one more play for Monday night to hopefully cap it all off.
This week’s Free Play travels to Detroit, Michigan to see the Detroit Lions (2-1) host the Seattle Seahawks (3-0) Kickoff is at 8:15 ET Current Lines: Detroit -4 Over/Under 47
The Mike McDonald era in Seattle has started off swimmingly. The Seahawks sit at 3-0 with victories over Denver, New England and Miami. Those teams sit now with a combined record of 4-7. Detroit is at 2-1 with victories over the Rams and Cardinals and a home loss to the Bucs. Combined opponents record of 5-7.
In 2023 Mike McDonald led the best effort of the year for defenses playing the Lions when he was the DC in Baltimore as his defense held the Lions to six points while limiting them to 65 first half yards as they built a 28-0 lead. Can he replicate the same game plan with the Seahawks? His defense is the #1 in the NFL in yards per play allowed up to this point. It’s early in the season so sometimes these numbers can be a little skewed.
The Seahawks defense got Bo Nix Week 1 in his regular season NFL debut where he put out 3.3 Yards per pass attempt. Week 2 saw Jacoby Brissett in Foxboro bump that up to 5.5 YPA. In Week 3 they got a combination of Skylar Thompson and Tim Boyle in holding Miami to three points. What I am saying is this defense has yet to be tested in 2024 with the best offense they have faced being Miami who has 4.9 Yards per play on average, but that’s only because Tua played Week 1 and 2.
Detroit on the other hand has faced Matthew Stafford with a healthy Cooper Kupp, where they did struggle a little bit against the pass. In their Week 2 loss to the Buccaneers they held Baker Mayfield and company to 216 Total Yards. Week 3 they completely shut down Kyler Murray and the Cards holding them to 277 total yards. These offenses rank 10th, 17th and 19th in Yards per play showing much better than the lot that the Seahawks have faced.
Offensively the Seahawks faced Denver’s #2 ranked defensive unit where they got to just over 300 yards. The Patriots unit with is 27th in Yards per play allowed where they were held under 300 yards in regulation, and Miami’s 27th ranked unit where they got to 370 Yards.
The Lions also faced two poor defenses in Arizona and the Rams where they got to 350 yards both games, and the Bucs 17th ranked unit. They put up 463 yards vs Tampa, butthey were done in by not being able to cash in on Touchdowns and then needing to get in the endzone late in the game.
Those are the basic facts, but again how much can we gleam off those basic numbers? Not as much as we can some deep dive statistics and news.
This Seattle O-Line didn’t pan out like they were hoping in the pre-season with Abraham Lucas still out from Off-season surgery and Christian Haynes not working out like they hoped. Pass blocking for Seattle has been as issue, and I certainly think it will be tonight again. The Seahawks are 29th ranked in pass blocking while the Lions are at third overall in pass rush grade through three games. The Seahawks offense is 24th in Rush EPA while the Lions defense checks in at third in the NFL here as well.
A lot of people are looking at the Frank Ragnow injury on the offensive line for the Lions at Center as key. Sure it will affect them, but pointing to their offensive dropoff in games he missed in 2023 may not be fair as one injury occured vs Baltimore and the other game he missed was against a good Bears defense. Most teams offensive outputs sink against those units right Josh Allen?
Much bigger issues are occurring in the Seattle front seven with DTs Leonard Williams and Byron Murphy both ruled out and EDGE rushers Boya Mafe and Uchenna Nwose joining them on the sidelines. Nwose hasn’t played yet this season, but Mafe leads the Seahawks in both Sacks and pressures. With these four players out they are going to struggle to get Jared Goff out of his comfort zone and he can carve up secondaries when he has time. Starting inside LB Jerome Baker is also listed as questionable and may miss the game.
Between the Seahawks defensive front seven injuries and the advantage the Lions already have in the trenches when they’re on defense I believe the Seahawks are going to be in for a long night.
This line has been all over the place opening at 5.5 and dipping down to 3.5 where I bet it. It got back up to 4.5 and has now settled in again at -4. Detroit is buzzing with the Tigers making the MLB playoffs and the Lions are 6-2 in their last eight games as home favorites. I still like this at -4 and am recommending a play here.
NASHVILLE, TN - NOVEMBER 05: Head coach John Harbaugh of the Baltimore Ravens yells at a referee against the Tennessee Titans at Nissan Stadium on November 5, 2017 in Nashville, Tennessee. (Photo by Michael Reaves/Getty Images)
Bills vs Ravens -2.5 O/U 46.5
This should be a very fun night game with the Bills being undefeated against an angry Ravens team who should be undefeated. I honestly have the side of this game pretty close as the Ravens should be favored by about two points or so, but I think that this total is short. The Bills offense has been even more electric than last year ranking 1st in overall EPA and 1st in success rate. The Ravens are actually not too far behind at 7th in success rate and 6th in EPA per play. The defense is where Baltimore takes a big hit as their defensive coordinator left for Seattle in the offseason. Currently, the Ravens defense ranks 26th in EPA while the Bills rank 7th. My concern lies with the Bills linebackers and Matt Milano was lost for the season, and Terrell Bernard will be a scratch tonight. I see lots of points this game, and I think that the total should lie somewhere closer to 50. take the over.
Over 46.5 – 2.5 stars
Teaser: Jets to -1.5 with the Buccaneers to +7.5 – 2 stars
