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Thursday Night Football Video Prop Play – 7-2 – Sports Betting

We are very happy with our prop results at 7-2. Let’s hope to cash this one.

Thursday Free Play Video:

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3 Selections:
NFL: TB/Atl Total
NFL: TB/Atl Side
MLB: NYM/Mil

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Podcast 630 – 75 – 24 – NFL Week 5 – NCAAF Week 6 – UFC 307 – Sports Betting

The OddsBreakers Sports Betting Podcast
The OddsBreakers All Rights Reserved

We have a HUGE show for you today!  Sniper Wes @TheSniperPicks from The OddsBreakers joins us to talk some college football week 6!  First, Kiev gets into some NFL as well as what the trends are looking like.   We give out some leans and some big plays.  Then, Wes comes on and the guys get right into current overrated/underrated teams in college football.   Then, Wes and Kiev break down some big games with some Free Plays for college football week 6!   After that, they give out some Beer Bet Bangers that could cash for some big plus money.   Then, Kiev briefly talks some UFC 307 with a play that he likes.  Finally, we get into college and NFL sharp money movement AND recap our plays!  Should you have any questions for the podcast, or games that you want us to cap during our shows, please message us at Info@TheOddsBreakers.com.  Have a wonderful week!

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NFL Week 5 Betting Spots

Let Down Spots:

  • The Chiefs could be flat hosting the Saints after beating the Chargers.
  • The Vikings could flatten out in London after beating the Packers.
  • The Commanders hosting the Browns after beating the Cardinals due to Kliff Kingsbury.  

Get Up Spots:

  • The Giants need to get up at the Seahawks.
  • The Browns need to wake up at the Commanders.
  • The Jags need to show up hosting the Colts.

Look Ahead Spots:

  • None

Short Rest:

  • Dolphins at Patriots after Monday Night.
  • Seahawks hosting Giants after Monday Night.

Long rest:

  • Giants at the Seahawks after Thursday Night.
  • Cowboys at the Steelers after Thursday Night.
  •  

NFL Week 4 Misleading Final Scores

The Rams out-gained the Bears 322-264 yet lost 24-18.   A 2-0 turnover ratio did them in.

The Saints out-gained the Falcons 366-315 yet lost 26-24.   A 2-1 turnover ratio and bad special teams did the Saints in.

The Packers yards were a lot of garbage time.

The Steelers out-gained the Colts 404 to 358 yet lost 27-24.  A 2-0 turnover ratio did in the Steelers.

The Jets out-gained the Broncos 248-186 yet lost 10-9.  Equal turnovers but 5 sacks and bad special teams got the Jets.

The Panthers out-gained the Bengals 375 to 373 yet lost 34-24.  Poor red zone efficiency and bad tackling got the Panthers.

The Texans out-gained the Jags 435 to 313 yet only won 24-20.  A 1-0 turnover ratio and 12 penalties hurt the Texans.

College Football Week 6 Betting Spots

Let Down Spots:

  • Alabama could be a little flat next week at Vanderbilt after beating Georgia.
  • Miami could be sloppy at Cal after beating Virginia Tech in a huge comeback.
  • Duke could flatten out vs Georgia Tech after beating rival North Carolina.
  • Louisiana at Southern Miss looks gross after they beat Wake Forest.
  • Old Dominion at Coastal Carolina after beating Bowling Green as a big dog.
  • Rutgers at Nebraska after beating Washington is one for sure.
  • Sam Houston State at UTEP after beating Texas State

Get Up Spots:

  • Wisconsin better get up vs Purdue after looking like crap the second half of USC.
  • Georgia will want to pound Auburn after losing to Alabama.
  • UCLA has been trash and will show up at Penn State.
  • Louisville should be good to go vs SMU after losing to Notre Dame.
  • Baylor needs to get up at Iowa State here.   They choked too many games away.

Look Ahead Spots:

  • Penn State looking past UCLA to USC is one for sure.

Long Rest:

  • Army with an extra two days at Tulsa is one.
  • Temple with an extra few days at UCONN is there.
  • Virginia Tech with an extra day at Stanford is there.
  • Rutgers with an extra day to prepare for at Nebraska.
  • Washington with an extra day to prepare to host Michigan.
  • ASU off the bye week to host Kansas.
  • Cal with an extra 6 days off bye to host Miami.   Miami does get 8 days at least.
  • Costal Carolina off the bye to host Old Dominion.
  • Florida off the bye hosting UCF.
  • Georgia Tech off the bye hosting Duke.
  • Hawaii off the bye at San Diego State.
  • Iowa off the bye at Ohio State.
  • Jacksonville State off the bye at Kennesaw State.
  • Kentucky hosting Vanderbilt after the bye.
  • Missouri off the bye at Texas A&M.
  • Northwestern off the bye hosting Indiana.
  • Pitt off the bye at North Carolina.
  • South Carolina off the bye hosting Ole Miss.
  • Tennessee off the bye at Arkansas.
  • Southern Miss off the bye ugly hosting Louisiana.
  • Toledo off the bye hosting Miami Ohio.
  • UTEP off the bye hosting Sam Houston State.
  • Utah State off the bye at Boise State.
  • Vanderbilt off the bye at Alabama.  Geeze.
  • Virginia off the bye hosting Boston College.
  • West Virginia off the bye at Oklahoma State.

Revenge Spots:

  • Washington hosting Michigan is the big one.
  • Purdue might look to avenge at Wisconsin.  Last year’s game was tooth and needle.

Wednesday Free Play Video:

Diamondbacks vs. Padres pictured mid-game.

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3 Selections:
MLB: KC/Bal
MLB: NYM/Mil
MLB: Atl/SD

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College Football Week 5 Misleading Final Scores

Utah out-gained Arizona 364 to 358 yet lost 23-10.  A 2-1 turnover ratio and the Cam Rising injury saga continues.

Cincinnati out-gained Texas Tech 555 to 482 yet lost 44-41.  A 2-1 turnover ratio and poor red zone defense got the Bearcats.

Rice out-gained Charlotte 463 to 304 yet lost 21-20.   A 1-0 turnover ratio and poor fourth down efficiency killed the Owls.

Troy out-gained Louisiana Monroe 272 to 247 yet lost 13-9.  They won the turnover battle 1-0, but terrible red zone efficiency slashed the Trojans.

Bowling Green out-gained Old Dominion 399 to 333 yet lost 30-27.  A 1-0 turnover ratio and poor rushing the football killed the Falcons.

UTSA out-gained East Carolina 456 to 341 yet lost 30-20.   A 3-2 turnover ratio and poor red zone defense flattened the Road Runners.

Louisville out-gained Notre Dame 395 to 280 yet lost 31-24.  A 3-2 turnover ratio and poor special teams killed the Cardinal.   Bad quarterback play as well by Tyler Shough.

Auburn out-gained Oklahoma 482 to 291 yet lost 27-21.  A 1-0 turnover ratio that was a pick 6 and terrible coaching killed the Tigers.

Arkansas out-gained Texas A&M 379 to 297 yet lost 21-17.  A 3-0 turnover ratio roasted the Hogs.

UNLV only out-gained Fresno State 450 to 349 yet won 59 to 14.  A nasty 4-0 turnover ratio and poor special teams destroyed the Bulldogs.

UCF’s yards were mainly garbage yards.

Minnesota out-gained Michigan 296 to 241 yet lost 27-24.  Some garbage yards, but a 2-1 turnover ratio smashed the Gophers.

Baylor out-gained BYU 387 to 367 yet lost 34-28.   Equal turnover at 2 but horrible third down efficiency 3/13 killed the Bears.

Northern Illinois out-gained NC State 283 to 171 yet lost 24-17.  A bad 4-0 turnover ratio did in the Huskies.

Western Kentucky out-gained Boston College 355 to 279 yet lost 21-20.   A bad 3-2 turnover ratio and a choke at the end killed the Hill toppers.

Washington out-gained Rutgers 521 to 299 yet lost 21-18.   Equal turnovers but bad 3rd down efficiency killed the Huskies.

2024 Sanderson Farms Championship Preview & Picks

The Sanderson Farms Championship is the second event of the FedExCup Fall, where players are competing to secure their spot in the top 125 of the rankings. Those who finish in the top 125 will earn full PGA TOUR status for the upcoming season, while players ranked 126-150 will receive conditional status for the 2024 season. Additionally, players outside the top 125 will have the opportunity to improve or regain their TOUR status through the PGA TOUR Q-School presented by Korn Ferry.

Pre-Tournament Storylines:

Luke List Aims for Back-to-Back Titles

Defending champion Luke List, who claimed victory in a thrilling five-man playoff last season, is looking to make history by becoming the first player in 50 years to win the Sanderson Farms Championship in consecutive years.

Korn Ferry Points Leader Chooses PGA Tour Over Finals

Matt McCarty, the Korn Ferry Tour Points Leader, secured a Three-Victory Promotion and locked up the No. 1 spot on the Points List. He will skip this week’s Korn Ferry Tour Championship in favor of competing at the Sanderson Farms Championship after an impressive summer run that included three wins in six starts.

Rickie Fowler Returns to PGA Tour

Rickie Fowler is making his return to the PGA Tour for the first time since the birth of his second daughter, Nellie, in August. This will be Fowler’s debut at the Sanderson Farms Championship, with his last appearance on tour coming at The Open Championship in July.

PGA TOUR University Leader Michael Thorbjornsen Eyes FedExCup Push

Michael Thorbjornsen, the No. 1 player in PGA TOUR University, is looking to climb inside the Top 125 in the FedExCup Fall standings. Currently ranked No. 134, he returns to action this week after finishing T50 at the Procore Championship.

Presidents Cup Connections in the Field

Mackenzie Hughes, a 2022 Sanderson Farms winner and participant in the Presidents Cup, is the only player from the tournament in the field. Additionally, Camilo Villegas, assistant captain for the International Team, is also competing this week.

Title Sponsor Transition on the Horizon

Sanderson Farms, the tournament’s title sponsor since 2013, announced in August that it will step down from its sponsorship role after this year despite having a contract that runs through 2026. As this year’s tournament approaches, tournament director Steve Jent is now tasked with securing a new sponsor for 2025 and beyond. Given the event’s past challenges in finding a title sponsor, the coming months will be crucial in determining the future of the Sanderson Farms Championship.

Tournament Information:

  • Dates: October 3rd – October 6th, 2024
  • Location: Jackson, Mississippi, United States
  • Course: The Country Club of Jackson
  • Course Type: Resort
  • Par: 72 (4x 3’s / 10x 4’s / 4x 5’s)
  • Length: 7,461 yards
  • Format: 72-hole stroke play
  • Greens: Champion bermudagrass .110”
  • Fairways: 419 bermudagrass .450”
  • Rough: 419 bermuda / Zeon zoysia 2.5”
  • Bunkers: 56
  • Water Hazard(s): 7 (In-Play on 5 Holes)
  • Average Green Size: 6,200 sq. ft.
  • Stimpmeter: 12.0 ft.
  • Purse/ Winner: $7,600,000 /$1,368,000
  • FedEx Cup Points: 500
  • Field: 132 Players
  • Cut: Top 65 and Ties – 36 Holes
  • Playoff Format: Sudden Death | Holes 18, 18, 10, 10
  • Course Scoring Average:
    • 2023: 70.25 (-1.75), Rank 45 of 58
    • 2022: 71.15 (-0.85), Rank 29 of 50
    • 2021: 69.87 (-2.13), Rank 45 of 50 
  • Historic Cut Line:
    • 2023: -5
    • 2022: -2
    • 2021: -5

Social Media:

Course Architect:

  • Course Architect: Dick Wilson (1962)
  • Renovations: John Fought and Mike Gogel (2008)

Comparable Courses & Greens:

  • Comparable Courses:
    • Detroit Golf Club – Rocket Mortgage Classic – RESULTS
    • Silverado Resort & Spa – Procore Championship – RESULTS
    • TPC Twin Cities – 3M Open – RESULTS
  • Designer Link (Dick Wilson (1962)):
    • Arnold Palmer’s Bay Hill Club & Lodge – Dick Wilson (1961) – Arnold Palmer Invitational
  • Comparable Location (Jackson, Mississippi, United States):
    • TPC Southwind – Memphis, Tennessee – FedEx St. Jude Championship
  • Comparable Yardage (7,461 Yards):
    • TPC San Antonio – 7,438 Yards – Valero Texas Open
    • Vidanta Vallarta – 7,456 Yards – Mexico Open at Vidanta
  • Comparable Average Green Size (6,200 sq. ft.):
    • Silverado Resort and Spa – 6,200 sq. ft. – Procore Championship
  • Comparable Greens (Champion bermudagrass .110”):
    • TPC Southwind – Champion bermudagrass .090” – FedEx St. Jude Championship
    • Sedgefield Country Club -Champion bermudagrass .120” – Wyndham Championship

TV Information (all times ET):

  • Round 1: Thursday, October 3rd, 2024
    • ESPN+ – 8:00 AM -4:00 PM
    • Golf Channel – 4:00 PM – 7:00 PM
  • Round 2: Friday, October 4th, 2024
    • ESPN+ – 8:00 AM -4:00 PM
    • Golf Channel – 4:00 PM – 7:30 PM
  • Round 3: Saturday, October 5th, 2024
    • Golf Channel – 4:00 PM – 7:00 PM
  • Round 4: Sunday, October 6th, 2024
    • Golf Channel – 3:30 PM – 6:30 PM

Weather:

Course/ Tournament History:

The Sanderson Farms Championship began in 1968 as the Magnolia Classic and has since become a staple on the PGA Tour. Initially, the event was considered an “alternate” or “opposite-field” tournament, held alongside major competitions like the Ryder Cup or larger tournaments. Because of this, it typically attracted players who were not in the elite field at those marquee events. Despite its status, the tournament remained a crucial part of the PGA Tour calendar, offering players an opportunity to secure important FedExCup points and establish themselves on the tour. Throughout its early history, the event was hosted at various locations, including Hattiesburg Country Club, Annandale Golf Club, and later its current home, the Country Club of Jackson, in Jackson, Mississippi.

In 2013, the tournament secured its title sponsor, Sanderson Farms, a poultry company based in Mississippi, which helped solidify its future on the PGA Tour. This partnership significantly raised the profile of the event, and in 2019, the Sanderson Farms Championship was elevated to a full FedExCup points event and also rescheduled to September, as the second tournament of the PGA Tour season. This upgrade meant the winner would receive a Masters Tournament invitation, which further boosted the tournament’s prestige and drew a stronger field of competitors. The event has also become known for its philanthropic efforts, with proceeds benefiting the Friends of Children’s Hospital, a non-profit supporting pediatric care in Mississippi.

The Country Club of Jackson has a rich history dating back to its founding in 1914. Located in the capital city of Mississippi, the club was established to provide a premier recreational and social venue for the community. Originally, the club featured a nine-hole golf course, which was later expanded as the club grew in size and reputation. Over the years, the Country Club of Jackson has undergone several renovations and enhancements to maintain its status as one of the top golf and country clubs in the region. In the mid-1960s, the course was completely redesigned by prominent golf course architect Dick Wilson, whose work brought a modern flair to the club’s layout.

The club gained national recognition when it became the host venue for the Sanderson Farms Championship in 2014, a prestigious event on the PGA Tour. This marked a significant moment in the club’s history, as it became home to one of Mississippi’s premier sporting events. The Country Club of Jackson’s 27-hole layout, which includes the Azalea, Dogwood, and Cypress nines, provides a scenic and challenging setting for the tournament, showcasing the course’s undulating fairways, water hazards, and strategic bunkering.

Tournament Records:

  • 72-Hole Record (Sanderson Farms Championship):
    • 263, Dan Halldorson (1986 at Hattiesburg GC)
  • 18-Hole Record (Sanderson Farms Championship):
    • 61, Keith Clearwater (2nd round, 1996 at Annandale GC)
  • Most Wins:
    • 2 – Dwight Nevil (1973, 1974), Brian Henninger (1994, 1999), Fred Funk (1998, 2004)
  • Largest Margin of Victory:
    • 5 – Ryan Armour (2017), Frank Conner (1988)

Course Records:

  • 72-Hole Record (The Country Club of Jackson):
    • 266, Sam Burns (2021)
  • 18-Hole Record (The Country Club of Jackson):
    • 62, Roberto Castro (1st round, 2015)

Course Guide/ Scorecard:

The Dogwood-Azalea course at the Country Club of Jackson was designed by John Fought and Mike Gogel. “Dogwood” refers to the front nine and “Azalea” refers to the back nine. It is a Par 72 that plays 7,461 yards. The course features four Par 3’s, ten Par 4’s, and four Par 5’s. It’s a resort layout that’s fairly wide open allowing longer hitters to attack this course. In terms of the rough, it’s some of the least penal on Tour. Water comes into play on five holes but mainly on the Par 3’s.

This is one of the easier courses on Tour as seen by the historical scoring average, we should see another winner finish around -20.

The four Par 3’s range from 168 to 223 yards. Last year, Hole No. 13 was the only par 3 to have a scoring average under par.

No. 7, 214 yards, Par 3: Players have a fairly straightforward long iron into this green. However a miss long or right can make for a difficult up and down. A par on this hole is a good score and it had a scoring average over par last year.

No. 13, 168 yards, Par 3: While this is the shortest hole on the course, swirling winds come into play and can knock a high iron down. The green is protected by two front bunkers and one hidden over the left side.

There are ten Par 4’s at the Country Club of Jackson with the majority (six) of them ranging between 400 and 450 yards. In terms of scoring average, the two toughest Par 4’s last year were No. 16 (+0.164) and No. 18 (+0.099).

No. 8, 403 yards, Par 4: Is a dog-leg left where an accurate tee shot is crucial. Since it’s only 400 yards, most players will club down here and try to avoid the creek runs along the hole on the left side. On a player’s approach shot, they’ll have to navigate the two bunkers that protect the green in the front.

No. 16, 479 yards, Par 4: This is the signature hole on the course and will require two demanding shots. A swamp runs along the entire left side of the hole and crosses the fairway approximately 80 yards from the hole. If players choose the “bailout” option trees come into play and are forced to hit towards the water on their approach. In addition to the swamp on the left, the green is protected by a large bunker on the right.

There are four Par 5’s on the course, No. 3, No. 5, No. 11, and No. 14. All of these holes had a scoring average under par in 2023. No. 11 was the easiest Par 5 on the course last year with a scoring average of 0.412 below par. Hole No. 5, was the toughest Par 5 last year due to it being the only Par 5 that measures over 600 yards.

No. 5, 612 yards, Par 5: This is the longest hole on the course and the toughest of the Par 5’s. Off the tee, players will try to navigate their ball between two fairway bunkers putting them in position to try and go for it in two. If they do try and reach the green in two, they cannot miss short-left as a pond comes into play. The green itself is surrounded by multiple bunkers as well.

No. 14, 584 yards, Par 5: Players will need an accurate tee shot off the tee. The left side is woodlands, while on the right side, trees can come into play. Even if they do find the fairway, they can end up in one of the fairway bunkers. On their approach shot, they’ll have to avoid the two front bunkers.

Featured/ Signature Hole(s): 16

Key Statistics:

StatisticsPGA Tour AverageThe Country Club of Jackson
Driving Distance (Yards)283.67285.88
Driving Accuracy62%54%
GIR Percentage66%69%
Avg GIR Prox to Hole (Feet)29.1730.67
Scrambling Percentage58%62%
Avg 3 Putts / Round0.550.53

Per DataGolf, this is the favored skillset at the Country Club of Jackson.

  • Strokes Gained: Off the Tee
    • Success this week will hinge on players’ ability to position themselves effectively off the tee. While the course’s considerable length underscores the significance of distance, precision holds equal importance.
    • Leaders in this category in the last 24 Rounds:
      • Cameron Champ
      • Patrick Fishburn
      • Kevin Dougherty
      • Keith Mitchell
      • Jhonattan Vegas
      • Carson Young
      • Seamus Power
      • Hayden Springer
      • Alex Smalley
      • Joe Highsmith

  • Strokes Gained: Approach
    • Having a strong iron game will be important this week if players want to succeed at the Country Club of Jackson.
    • Leaders in this category in the last 24 Rounds:
      • Doug Ghim
      • David Lipsky
      • J.J. Spaun
      • Keith Micthell
      • Chez Reavie
      • Matt Kuchar
      • Ben Griffin
      • Chan Kim
      • Jhonattan Vegas
      • Andrew Novak

  • Strokes Gained: Putting (Bermudagrass)
    • The Greens at the Country Club of Jackson are Champion bermudagrass .110”.
    • Leaders in this category in the last 24 Rounds:
      • Taylor Montgomery
      • S.H. Kim
      • Chad Ramey
      • Mackenzie Hughes
      • Austin Smotherman
      • Garrick Higgo
      • Matt Kuchar
      • Harris English
      • Mac Meissner
      • Pierceson Coody

  • Par 3 Scoring: 200-225 Yards (x2)
    • Two of the four Par 3’s at the Country Club of Jackson range between 200-225 Yards.
    • Leaders in Par 3 Scoring: 200-225 Yards in the last 24 Rounds:
      • Sam Ryder
      • Michael Kim
      • Keith Mitchell
      • Chez Reavie
      • Nick Hardy
      • Jhonattan Vegas
      • Maverick McNealy
      • Zac Blair
      • Cody Gribble
      • Brice Garnett

  • Par 4 Scoring: 400-450 Yards (x6)
    • Six of the ten Par 4’s at the Country Club of Jackson range between 450-500 Yards.
    • Leaders in Par 4 Scoring: 400-450 Yards in the last 24 Rounds:
      • Roger Sloan
      • Adam Svensson
      • Alex Smalley
      • Ryp Hisatsune
      • Chan Kim
      • Zac Blair
      • Ben Griffin
      • Keith Mitchell
      • J.J. Spaun
      • Justin Lower

  • Par 5 Scoring: 550-600 Yards (x3)
    • Three of the four Par 5’s at the Country Club of Jackson range between 550-600 Yards.
    • Leaders in Par 5 Scoring: 550-600 Yards in the last 24 Rounds:
      • Eric Cole
      • Jhonattan Vegas
      • Patrick Fishburn
      • Hayden Springer
      • Paul Barjon
      • Davis Riley
      • Keith Mitchell
      • Matt NeSmith
      • Troy Merritt
      • Adam Svensson

  • Proximity Gained: 100-125 Yards
    • Most approach shots at the Country Club of Jackson come from the 100-125 yard range at a volume much higher than the PGA Tour average.
  • Leaders in Proximity Gained: 100-125 Yards in the last 24 Rounds:
    • Eric Cole
    • Roger Sloan
    • Taylor Montgomery
    • Kevin Streelman
    • Doug Ghim
    • J.J. Spaun
    • David Lipsky
    • Pierceson Coody
    • Zac Blair
    • Ben Kholes

  • Birdies or Better Gained
    • Players will need to take advantage of every scoring opportunity this week if they want to put themselves into contention.
    • Leaders in this category in the last 24 Rounds:
      • Keith Mitchell
      • J.J. Spaun
      • Michael Thorbjornsen
      • Zach Johnson
      • Chandler Phillips
      • Maverick McNealy
      • Justin Lower
      • Jhonattan Vegas
      • Andrew Novak
      • Pierceson Coody

  • Comparable Courses and Event History
  • Leaders in this category (Multiple Events Played, Last 6 Editions):
    • Cameron Champ
    • Garrick Higgo
    • Benjamin Griffin
    • Nick Hardy
    • Mackenzie Hughes
    • C.T. Pan
    • Bill Haas
    • Henrik Norlander
    • Alex Smalley
    • Seonghyeon Kim

The Field:

This year’s Sanderson Farms Championship will feature a total of 132 competitors.

  • Here is the current basis of qualification for each entrant this week:
    • Top 125 FedExCup Fall Point Lists
    • Top 70 on Prior Year FEC Playoff & Elig List through the Playoffs
    • Tournament Winner in Past Two Seasons
    • DP World Tour / Korn Ferry Tour / Q-School Category – Reordered
    • Open Qualifying
    • Sponsors Exemptions – Unrestricted
    • PGA Section Champion\Player of the Year
    • Winner – PGA/U.S. Open Championship
    • Reorder Category – Cat. 37 thru 44
    • Career Money Exemption
    • Major Medical Extension
  • Previous Winners in the Field (Event):
    • Luke List (’23), Mackenzie Hughes (’22), Cameron Champ (’18), Ryan Armour (’17), Cody Gribble (’16), Peter Malnati (’15), Bill Hass (’10)
  • Debutants in the Field (Event):
    • Adrien Dumont de Chassart, Blaine Hale, Jr., Chan Kim, Christopher Gotterup, Hayden Springer, Hunter Logan, Jacob Bridgeman, Joe Highsmith, Mac Meissner, Matt McCarty, Michael Thorbjornsen, Nick Dunlap, Parker Coody, Patrick Fishburn, Pierceson Coody, Raul Pereda, Reed Hughes, Rickie Fowler, Rico Hoey, Ryan Fox, Ryan McCormick, Ryo Hisatsune, Sami Valimaki, Tom Whitney, Trace Crowe
  • Sponsors Exemptions:
    • Henrik Norlander, Hunter Logan, Cody Gribble, Ryan Armour, Bill Haas, Brandt Snedeker
  • Players with ties to Mississippi in the Field:
    • Birthplace:
      • Hunter Logan – Steens, Mississippi
      • Wilson Furr – Jackson, Mississippi
      • Chad Ramey – Tupelo, Mississippi
      • Davis Riley – Hattiesburgh, Mississippi
    • College:
      • Hunter Logan – Mississippi State University
      • Chad Ramey – Mississippi State University
      • Reed Hughes – Ole Miss
  • Notable Withdraws/ Changes:
    • None

The Odds:

Here are the current favorites for this week’s event, along with a summary of their recent form and course history:

Nick Dunlap (+2200) secured his first two PGA Tour victories last season, winning both the American Express and the Barracuda Championship. He’s coming off strong performances, with a T31 finish at the BMW Championship and a T5 at the FedEx St. Jude Championship. This will be his debut at the Sanderson Farms Championship.

Seamus Power (+2200) finished T26 in his most recent professional outing at the Amgen Irish Open. This marks his seventh appearance in the Sanderson Farms Championship, where he has only cracked the top 20 twice in his previous six starts.

Keith Mitchell (+2200) ended his season on a high note, finishing T12 at the Wyndham Championship, though he didn’t advance to the second round of the FedExCup Playoffs. He kept up his momentum with a 12th-place finish at the Procore Championship, the first event of the FedExCup Fall series. Despite four prior attempts at this event, Mitchell has yet to make the cut.

Mackenzie Hughes (+2500), the only player in the field to have competed in last week’s Presidents Cup, finished T4 at the Procore Championship, continuing his strong play. A past winner of the Sanderson Farms Championship in 2022, this will be his fifth appearance at the event.

Maverick McNealy (+2500) missed the cut at the Procore Championship in his last start. He’s making his fourth appearance at the Sanderson Farms Championship, with his best finish coming last year when he placed T17.

Tournament Props:

Playoff:

  • Will There Be a Playoff at the Sanderson Farms Championship? (Yes +350 / No -500)

A playoff has determined the Sanderson Farms winner two years in a row and three of the last five seasons. In 2023, Luke List defeated Ludvig Aberg, Ben Griffin, Henrik Norlander, and Scott Stallings in a five man playoff. In the year prior, Mackenzie Hughes defeated Sepp Straka.

Hole-in-One:

  • Will There Be A Hole-in-One at the Sanderson Farms Championship? (Yes -145 / No +100)

In 2023, there we no holes in one made at this tournament. However, in 2022, there were two holes in one made both coming on the Hole No. 4.

Recent Horses for Courses (Event):

Sanderson Farms ChampionshipSanderson Farms ChampionshipSanderson Farms ChampionshipSanderson Farms ChampionshipSanderson Farms Championship
Country Club of JacksonCountry Club of JacksonCountry Club of JacksonCountry Club of JacksonCountry Club of Jackson
GolferEvents PlayedScoring Avg. (per round)20232022202120202019
Garrick Higgo268.50T163
Ben Griffin268.63T2T24
Nick Hardy368.92T35T5T26
C.T. Pan569.17T9T67T11T12
Henrik Norlander769.42T2T24T4T4MC
Mackenzie Hughes469.07MCWONT35

Recent Donkeys for Courses (Event):

Sanderson Farms ChampionshipSanderson Farms ChampionshipSanderson Farms ChampionshipSanderson Farms ChampionshipSanderson Farms Championship
Country Club of JacksonCountry Club of JacksonCountry Club of JacksonCountry Club of JacksonCountry Club of Jackson
GolferEvents PlayedScoring Avg. (per round)20232022202120202019
Justin Suh274.00MCMC
Tyson Alexander273.25MCMC
Keith Mitchell473,25MCMCMC
Martin Trainer672.58MCMCMCMCMC
Tim Wilkinson672.44MCMC
Sean O’Hair672.36MCMC
Michael Kim472.22MCMCWD
Matthias Schmid272.00MCMC
Zac Blair671.79MCMCMCMC
Kevin Tway571.67MCMCMCMC
Ryan Brehm471.00MCMCMC
Gary Woodland271.00MCMC

Previous Winners Scores, Prices, and Strokes Gained (Rank at Tournament):

  • 2023: Luke List (-18)
    • Price: 50-1
 SG: Off the TeeSG: Tee to GreenSG: ApproachSG: Around the GreenSG: Putting
Luke List19th14th48th6th7th
  • 2022: Mackenzie Hughes (-17)
    • Price: 110-1
 SG: Off the TeeSG: Tee to GreenSG: ApproachSG: Around the GreenSG: Putting
Mackenzie Hughes57th1st6th4th14th
  • 2021: Sam Burns (-22)
    • Price: 16-1
 SG: Off the TeeSG: Tee to GreenSG: ApproachSG: Around the GreenSG: Putting
Sam Burns1st1st2nd34th57th
  • 2020: Sergio Garcia (-19)
    • Price: 70-1
 SG: Off the TeeSG: Tee to GreenSG: ApproachSG: Around the GreenSG: Putting
Sergio Garcia1st1st3rd46th28th
  • 2019: Sebastian Munoz (-18)
    • Price: 66-1
 SG: Off the TeeSG: Tee to GreenSG: ApproachSG: Around the GreenSG: Putting
Sebastian Munoz4th9th20th40th5th

Previous Winners Incoming Form (Last 5 Starts):

  • 2023: Luke List
    • T25 – Fortinent Championship (PGA)
    • T35 – Genesis Scottish Open (PGA)
    • WD- Rocket Mortgage Classic (PGA)
    • T33 – Travelers Championship (PGA)
    • MC – U.S. Open (MAJ)
  • 2022: Mackenzie Hughes
    • T25 – Fortinet Championship (PGA)
    • T58 – BMW Championship (PGA)
    • T46 – FedEx St. Jude Championship (PGA)
    • MC – Wyndham Championship (PGA)
    • MC – Rocket Mortgage Classic (PGA)

  • 2021: Sam Burns
    • T18 – TOUR Championship (PGA)
    • 8 – BMW Championship (PGA)
    • T21 – THE NORTHERN TRUST (PGA)
    • T2 – WGC-FedEx St. Jude Invitational (PGA)
    • T76 – The Open Championship (MAJ)

  • 2020: Sergio Garcia
    • MC – U.S. Open (MAJ)
    • MC – Safeway Open (MAJ)
    • T66 – Wyndham Championship (PGA)
    • MC – PGA Championship (PGA)
    • T35 – WGC-FedEx St. Jude Invitational (PGA)

  • 2019: Sebastian Munoz
    • T7 – A Military Tribute (PGA)
    • T43 – THE NORTHERN TRUST (PGA)
    • T48 – Wyndham Championship (PGA)
    • 11 – Barracuda Championship (PGA)
    • T9 – Barbasol Championship (PGA)

Previous Winners Finishes at Event:

2023: Luke List

2022202120202019201620152013
Luke List7317MCMCT2T28MC

2022: Mackenzie Hughes

20212016
Mackenzie HughesT35T26

2021: Sam Burns

2020201920182017
Sam BurnsMCT45T3T43

2020: Sergio Garcia

  • Tournament Debut

2019: Sebastian Munoz

20182016
Mackenzie HughesT50T35

Picks:

Apologies for the lack of write-ups this week, as I’ve been traveling. If you’d like to know the reasoning behind any of my selections, feel free to send me a direct message on X (Twitter).

Outrights:

  • J.J. Spaun (+3300) – FanDuel
    • Risk 0.25 to win 8.25 Units

  • Patrick Fishburn (+3500) – FanDuel
    • Risk 0.23 to win 8.05 Units

  • Taylor Moore (+5000) – BetMGM
    • Risk 0.16 to win 8.00 Units

  • Doug Ghim (+5500) – BetMGM
    • Risk 0.15 to win 8.25 Units

  • Henrik Norlander (+7000) – FanDuel
    • Risk 0.12 to win 8.40 Units

  • Pierceson Coody (+8000) – FanDuel
    • Risk 0.10 to win 8.00 Units

  • Nick Hardy (+9000) – FanDuel
    • Risk 0.09 to win 8.10 Units

Total Risk on Outrights: 1.10 Units

Top 20 (including ties):

  • Rico Hoey (+200) – DraftKings
    • Risk 1.00 to win 2.00 Units

  • Mac Meissner (+200) – DraftKings
    • Risk 1.00 to win 2.00 Units

  • Charley Hoffman (+220) – DraftKings
    • Risk 1.00 to win 2.20 Units

Total Risk on Top 20s: 3.00 Units

Total Risk on the Sanderson Farms Championship: 4.10 Units 

Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting. Any feedback whether positive or negative is always encouraged.

MLB Playoffs Free Pick – It’s Miller Time in Milwaukee

Following our big football/baseball weekend we’re now going to turn our attention on Tuesday to the MLB Playoffs.

My Analysis today turns Miller Park (Yes I know it’s not called that anymore, but when you live in Wisconsin that is what it will always be) in Milwaukee where the Brewers will host the Mets at 5:32 ET. The current line sits with the Brewers as the favorites at -147 with the Mets getting +127. The Over/Under is at 7.5 juiced to the under at -120. The roof will be closed.

These two teams just played each other this weekend with the Brewers taking two out of three. The Mets had to play two games yesterday and got the win they needed to sneak into the playoffs.

The Mets will start Luis Severino who has a 3.91 ERA and a 4.21 xFIP. K/9 sits a 7.96 with the BB/9 at 2.97. If he has his command his stuff is great with three plus pitches in his heater, cutter and slider. He has quality starts in four of his last five outings, and his K-rate has gone way up since the start of August.

The Brewers will throw Freddy Peralta and his 3.68 ERA and 3.93 xFIP. He has a 10.36 K/9 and a 3.52 BB/9. Peralta has struggled to get deep into games not having gone six innings in the entire month of September. He throws a lot of pitches, but most of them are effective with plus pitch values on his fastball, curveball and his top pitch his change-up.

These two teams put up very similar offensive numbers with the Mets finishing 9th in OPS and the Brewers in 10th. The Mets rely more on the long-ball while the Brewers manufacture runs through working more walks and stealing bases where they finished second in MLB with 217.

With the overall teams being so similar my handicap comes down to a few things. Five of the Brewers likely starting lineup has hit over .333 in their careers vs Severino. Only Jesse Winker, who returns to the lineup today from injury is over that number against Peralta for the Mets, but he does have 2 career long balls against Peralta. I give that advantage to the Brewers.

The second and most important piece of the handicap is that the Brewers didn’t have to play two games yesterday in Atlanta. Edwin Diaz has thrown 66 pitches over the last two days to get them into the playoffs and will likely be unavailable today. Phil Maton has gone the last three days and his status is up in the air. The Mets will likely only have one lefty available in the pen today as well with David Peterson and Joey Lucchesi starting Sunday and Monday. It is possible they let Jose Quintana go some today if needed, but unlikely.

Yes it is a spot play more than anything, but the value is right with the schedule the Mets have had.

Brewers -147 to Win 1 Unit. RL +155 Wager 1 Unit