We have a MASSIVE show for you today! The longest and most informative in our history! Chris Fallica @ChrisFallica from @FoxSports and Ralph Michaels @CalSportsLV from @Wagertalk break down 2024 college football! First, Kiev talks about football contests and NFL Preseason week 2 with a Free Play. He went 6-4-1 from week 1. Next, Ralph and Chris come on and the guys first start talking delicious Culvers fast food. Then, we get right into college football talking about some BIG BETS in every single conference from a season win total or futures perspective. Finally, the boys get into the awards market with some long shots that will help us all have a great holiday season! Should you have any questions for the podcast, or games that you want us to cap during our shows, please message us at Info@TheOddsBreakers.com. Have a wonderful week!
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We are now in the midst of Preseason action which means real NFL games are just around the corner. I’ve put together 9 preview articles that break down the season win predictions for every team in football, and then look to the playoffs and what teams have value in the futures. I have gone through the entire schedule game by game and have found some great values on season win totals. I’ll highlight my top plays along the way and get you my picks division by division.
My all time tracked record in the NFL currently sits at 228-191-7 with a 3.4% ROI as we had a huge 2021 and a slight winning campaign in 2022 and 2023. You can find all my packages available here at TheOddsBreakers.com
Wanna know anything else? Hit me up on Twitter or whatever it’s called now @TheGreatKnoche.
NFC East
2023 Records
Dallas 12-5/ Philadelphia 11-6/ New York Giants 6-11/ Washington 4-13
Dallas Cowboys
Mike McCarthy took over play calling duties for the Cowboys in 2023 and Dak Prescott responded with his best season ever as he led the league in touchdown passes. Alas it was all for not as the Boys fell at home in the playoffs to the Packers. They also lost a lot of talent from their roster and did not replace it in free agency mostly filling holes in the draft. Tony Pollard is gone, and they bring back Ezekiel Elliot to replace him, but Zeke wasn’t productive last season in New England. I expect Ceedee Lamb to be back, but he is still holding out. Brandin Cooks is a solid number two and Jake Ferguson is a huge safety blanket for Dak. The line is in flux as they will replace both Left Tackle and Center this season and it will likely be the biggest issue on offense.
The defense is still anchored around Micah Parsons and his ability to get to the QB and disrupt plays. They add Eric Kendricks and have a top 5 LB core for sure. They got a little smaller on the DL, but I think with Mike Zimmer coming in he had that as part of his plan. Trevon Diggs and Laron Bland will anchor the outside at corner. Both are feast or famine players causing big turnovers, but also giving up some big plays when taking chances.
I could see both the offense and the defense taking a step back this season especially in the trenches, but I still think there is enough talent on this roster to become the first NFC East repeat champion since 2004. This is likely a make it or break it year for Dak, McCarthy, and maybe even Jerry Jones?
Vegas Win Projection: 9.5 Juiced Over -145, Under +115
Philadelphia Eagles
The Eagles are now the favorites to win the NFC East. They collapsed down the stretch last season especially on the defensive side of the ball. They brought in Vic Fangio to run the defense after one season in Miami so he could be closer to home. I think this is a great move for Philly. The offense however will only go as far as Jalen Hurts takes them. He certainly pressed more in 2023 in the passing game and must slow things down a little bit. Kellen Moore comes i as the new OC, and has experience using a mobile QB from his days in Dallas with Dak. They add a big offensive weapon if he can stay healthy in Saquon Barkley. They extended A.J. Brown and still have top tier #2 Devonta Smith so the offensive firepower is not in question. The OL loses Jason Kelce, but has one of the top pair of tackles in the league and should still be solid.
The defense was and still is the question for the birds who ended last season with just a +5 Point differential despite putting up 433 points. Fangio can do some things, but they have yet to replace the production they lost on the line in 2023 and even took another step back trading Haason Reddick and losing Fletcher Cox to retirement. The linebacker core was weak and I don’t think adding Devon White will change that. The only area of improvement should be in the secondary where they drafted Quinyan Marshall and Cooper DeJean.
This team has the easier schedule than the Cowboys and that could be the difference in the division, but I still think Dallas is the team to beat here.
Vegas Win Projection: 10.5 Juiced Over -145, Under +115
Washington Commanders
New Owners bring in a new GM, Head Coach and Quarterback to kick off their first full season. Dan Quinn replaces Ron Rivera, but the most interesting part was that most of their free agents were brought in on one year deals. They realized they are still rebuilding and need some talent from the draft and a competent QB to compete before they invest heavily in marquee free agents. Jaylon Daniels lands in a great situation With OC and QB guru Kliff Kingsbury. While he didn’t have success in AZ, I believe he will be a perfect fit with Daniels skill set. Terry McLaurin and Jahan Dotson will be his primary threats. Brian Robinson and Austin Ekeler are solid options behind him as well. Tight End got solidified with Zach Ertz and second round pick Ben Sinnott. The OL was awful in 2023, but should be better with signing Tyler Biadasz and Nick Allegretti to contracts.
While they didn’t dish out a lot of long-term deals, they got some guys in free agency on defense in Bobby Wagner and Frankie Luvu that make this linebacker core while a little older one of the sturdiest looking on paper. The DL is strong on the inside, but weaker at DE. The secondary is a weakness, but I love the pick of CB Mike Sainristil who will likely start at nickel back.
Both the Commanders and Giants are going to be bottom of the barrel in 2024, but the prospects for Washington to improve quickly are certainly better than up the road in New York.
Vegas Win Projection: 6.5 Juiced Over -120, Under -110
New York Giants
Paying Daniel Jones was wrong. There was nothing in 2022 that said he should get paid other than a fluky Win/Loss record. The Giants front office is going to pay for it now, and it is possible they don’t survive past year 3 of their tenure. They replaced Saquon Barkley with Devin Singletary, which I don’t hate. The need top draft pick Malik Nabers to be elite for Jones to have a shot at any growth. The OL adds Jon Runyan and two other free agent pieces, but still shapes up as below average in my book. Only 266 points scored in 2023 is miserable. I don’t think it gets much better here in 2024.
Losing DC Wink Martindale after infighting with Daboll isn’t going to endear Daboll more to the team. Wink was well liked by players. They did make one big off-season splash grabbing DL Brian Burns. He adds to a strong pass rush and front seven with second year player Kayvon Thibodeaux and DT Dexter Lawrence. This group will need to get pressure on the QB with just 4 as the secondary lost top safety Xavier McKinney and is likely rolling at least two rookies out on the field to start.
It will need to be a big turnaround on offense for Jones and company or this team could end up being near the bottom of the league in points scored. And if you are bottom of league in points scored, you’re likely gonna be bottom of the league in wins.
Vegas Win Projection: 6.5 Juiced Under -155, Over +125
2024 NFC East Predictions:
Dallas Cowboys 12-5
Philadelphia Eagles 11-6
Washington Commanders 6-11
New York Giants 6-11
NFC East Action:
Dallas Cowboys – Over 9.5 Wins -145 .5 Units, Dallas to Win NFC East +170 .5 Units. Originally this was lean over for me when it was at 10.5, but dropping to 9.5 and getting almost 2 to 1 on the division I decided to split up a unit and stick a few bucks on the Cowboys.
Philadelphia Eagles – No Action. I still don’t trust the defense enough, but I can’t see them losing 9 either.
Washington Commanders – No Action. I think they brought in enough pieces to win some games. Second half schedule is much harder than the first half so there could be some in season under action available here.
New York Giants – Lean Under. I came up with six wins for them on my schedule still, but it just feels like they could see the wheels come flying of the bus very quickly. Schedule gets tough weeks 3-7 and again following their bye weeks 12-16, so I will likely see where they are before the start of Week 3 and decide if I want to pull the trigger on an under.
The Playoffs begin this week at the FedEx St. Jude Championship at TPC Southwind, where the top 70 players in the standings will compete over the next three weeks to reach the season-ending TOUR Championship.
The action kicks off in Memphis, Tennessee, before moving to the BMW Championship at Castle Pines Golf Club in Colorado. Only the top 50 in the FedExCup standings will advance to the second Playoffs event, and just the top 30 will secure a spot in the season finale at the newly restored East Lake Golf Club near Atlanta.
The FedEx Cup is a season-long points competition that culminated with the FedExCup Playoffs. The FedExCup Playoffs is a series of three events that determine the FedExCup Champion.
The top 70 players in the season-long standings qualify for the first of three events (The FedEx St. Jude Championship). This is the only event of the three to have a cut after 36 holes. After this week’s event, only the top 50 players will qualify for the next event, the BMW Championship. Following that tournament, the final event of the playoffs takes place, the TOUR Championship.
In the TOUR Championship, only the top 30 players qualify and the points leader in the FedExCup will start the event at 10-under par. The No. 2 player will start at 8 under. The No. 3 player starts at 7 under; the No. 4 player starts at 6 under; the No. 5 player starts at 5 under. Players 6-10 start at 4 under; players 11-15 start at 3 under; players 16-20 start at 2 under; players 21-25 start at 1 under; and players 26-30 start at even par.
Course/ Tournament History:
TPC Southwind has hosted a PGA Tour event every year since 1989. This course has some rare bragging rights as it’s one of the only courses to host three different PGA Tour events. From 1989-2018, the FedEx St. Jude Classic was held here. In 2019, the WGC-FedEx St. Jude Invitational replaced that event and was relocated from Firestone Country Club in Akron, Ohio. Up until 2021, TPC Southwind has hosted that event.
TPC Southwind’s first major renovation took place in 2004 with the main goal of “modernizing” the course. The course was lengthened out adding 11 new tees, and 15 new bunkers while enlarging three ponds and adding some additional foliage. The greens were also changed from bentgrass to Champion bermudagrass.
In 2020, the course underwent a minor renovation with every bunker being re-contoured in some sort. Some were also added making the course a little more difficult.
The FedEx St. Jude Championship replaced the Northern Trust as the first stop in the FedEx Cup Playoffs in 2022. This will be the third time that a FedExCup Playoff event has been held at this course.
61, Tom Lewis (Round 3, 2020), Bob Estes (Round 1, 2001), Jay Delsing (Round 4, 1993)
Course Guide/ Scorecard:
Originally crafted by Ron Prichard in 1988, TPC Southwind features a Par 70 layout, comprising four Par 3s, twelve Par 4s, and two Par 5s.
The four Par 3’s (No. 4, No. 8, No. 11, & No. 14) at TPC Southwind range between 162 yards and 205 yards. Last year, all of the Par 3’s had a scoring average under par except for No. 14 (+0.093).
No. 11, 162 Yards, Par 3: A smaller version of the famous 17th island green at TPC Sawgrass, but with its own uniqueness. This signature hole requires a short iron over water to a green with a small pot bunker that guards the front edge.
No. 14, 205 Yards, Par 3: The signature par 3 14th plays from an elevated tee with a full carry over water to a severely undulating green. A very difficult hole set among a natural amphitheater, making for great viewing down the stretch.
There are twelve Par 4s at TPC Southwind.No. 15 is the shortest Par 4 listed at 395 yards with the longest being No. 17, playing 505 yards. In terms of scoring average, the toughest Par 4 on the course last year was No. 5 (+0.146).
No. 9, 457 Yards, Par 4: A long dogleg to the right, slightly downhill with the second shot over a lake that is front of the green. The player needs a lot of length to get in position for the approach to the green. Ideal drive is past the large tree on the right of the fairway to ensure an open shot to the green.
No. 18, 453 Yards, Par 4: An excellent finishing hole that places a great demand off the tee. This dogleg left has water that comes into play on the first two shots, as well as fairway bunkers on the right. Spectator mounds surround the medium-sized green.
There are two Par 5’s at TPC Southwind, No. 3 & No. 16. They both played under par last year, with the easiest hole on the course being No. 16 with a scoring average of 4.372.
No. 3, 579 Yards, Par 5: The first par 5 hole plays downhill with a lake along the right side of the fairway and green.
No. 16, 530 Yards, Par 5: The par 5 16th has an uphill tee shot with a slight dogleg left. Depending on the drive, there is a good opportunity to hit the green in two, but there is a large bunker complex surrounding the front and sides and a steep collection area long.
Per DataGolf, this is the favored skillset at TPC Southwind.
Strokes Gained: Off the Tee
Success this week will hinge on players’ ability to position themselves effectively off the tee. While the course’s considerable length underscores the significance of distance, precision holds equal importance.
Leaders in this category in the last 24 Rounds:
Rory McIlroy
Min Woo Lee
Jhonattan Vegas
Scottie Scheffler
Viktor Hovland
Ludvig Aberg
Collin Morikawa
Tom Kim
Xander Schauffele
Jordan Spieth
Strokes Gained: Approach
Having a strong iron game will be important this week if players want to succeed at TPC Southwind.
Leaders in this category in the last 24 Rounds:
Scottie Scheffler
Tony Finau
Xander Schauffele
Ben Griffin
Collin Morikawa
Corey Conners
Tom Hoge
Brian Harman
Rory McIlroy
Sepp Straka
Strokes Gained: Putting (Bermudagrass)
The Greens at TPC Southwind are Champion bermudagrass .090”.
Leaders in this category in the last 24 Rounds:
Denny McCarthy
Nick Taylor
Russell Henley
Ben Griffin
Sahith Theegala
Thomas Detry
Xander Schauffele
Harris English
Max Greyserman
Billy Horschel
Par 3 Scoring: 150-175 Yards (x2)
Two of the four Par 3’s at TPC Southwind range between 150-175 Yards.
Leaders in Par 3 Scoring: 150-175 Yards in the last 24 Rounds:
Collin Morikawa
Xander Schauffele
Scottie Scheffler
Corey Conners
Eric Cole
Wyndham Clark
Erik van Rooyen
Hideki Matsuyama
Mackenzie Hughes
Brian Harman
Par 4 Scoring: 450-500 Yards (x6)
Six of the twelve Par 4’s at TPC Southwind range between 450-500 Yards.
Leaders in Par 4 Scoring: 450-500 Yards in the last 24 Rounds:
Scottie Scheffler
Xander Schauffele
Rory McIlroy
Aaron Rai
Collin Morikawa
Keegan Bradley
Alex Noren
Ludvig Aberg
Nick Taylor
Max Greyserman
Scrambling Gained
A player’s ability to recover and save par after missing the green in regulation will be crucial this week. The ability to recover from these situations and save par can make the difference between maintaining a competitive score and falling behind. High scrambling percentages contribute directly to lower scores.
Leaders in this category in the last 24 Rounds:
Hideki Matsuyama
Billy Horschel
Xander Schauffele
Rory McIlroy
Mackenzie Hughes
Keegan Bradley
Brian Harman
Sam Burns
Christiaan Bezuidenhout
Max Homa
Proximity Gained: 125-175 Yards
Most approach shots on at TPC Southwind come from the 125-175 yard range at a volume much higher than the PGA Tour average.
Leaders in Proximity Gained: 125-150 Yards in the last 24 Rounds:
Tom Hoge
Shane Lowry
Sungjae Im
Tom Kim
Akshay Bhatia
Russell Henley
Ludvig Aberg
Scottie Scheffler
Corey Conners
Tommy Fleetwood
Leaders in Proximity Gained: 150-175 Yards in the last 24 Rounds:
Scottie Scheffler
Seamus Power
Matt Fitzpatrick
Nick Dunlap
Brian Harman
Ben Griffin
Stephan Jaeger
Rory McIlroy
Tony Finau
Sepp Straka
Comparable Courses and Event History
Looking at the Data Golf Course History Tool, prior experience at TPC Southwind has proven to be slightly advantageous.
The Field:
This year’s FedEx St. Jude Championship will feature a total of 70 competitors.
Here is the current basis of qualification for each entrant this week:
Top 70 Players in the FedEx Cup Standings
Previous Winners in the Field (Event):
Will Zalatoris (’22)
Debutants in the Field (Event):
Akshay Bhatia, Austin Eckroat, Davis Thompson, Jake Knapp, Ludvig Aberg, Matthieu Pavon, Max Greyserman, Nick Dunlap
2023: Lucas Glover (-15) – FedEx St. Jude Championship – TPC Southwind
Price: 70-1
2022: Will Zalatoris (-15) – FedEx St. Jude Championship – TPC Southwind
Price: 28-1
2021: Tony Finau (-20) – THE NORTHERN TRUST – Liberty National
Price: 60-1
2020: Dustin Johnson (-30) – THE NORTHERN TRUST – TPC Boston
Price: 20-1
2022: Patrick Reed (-16) – THE NORTHERN TRUST – Liberty National
Price: 55-1
Previous Winners Incoming Form (Last 5 Starts):
2023: Lucas Glover (-15) – FedEx St. Jude Championship – TPC Southwind
WON – Wyndham Championship (PGA)
MC – 3M Open (PGA)
5 – Barbasol Championship (PGA)
T6 – John Deere Classic (PGA)
T4 – Rocket Mortgage Classic (PGA)
2022: Will Zalatoris (-15) – FedEx St. Jude Championship – TPC Southwind
T21 – Wyndham Championship (PGA)
T20 – Rocket Mortgage Classic (PGA)
T28 – The Open Championship (MAJ)
MC – Genesis Scottish Open (PGA)
T2 – U.S. Open (MAJ)
2021: Tony Finau (-20) – THE NORTHERN TRUST – Liberty National
T34 – WGC-FedEx St. Jude Invitational (PGA)
T28 – 3M Open (PGA)
T15 – The Open Championship (MAJ)
MC – Travelers Championship (PGA)
MC – U.S. Open (MAJ)
2020: Dustin Johnson (-30) – THE NORTHERN TRUST – TPC Boston
T2 – PGA Championship (PGA)
T12 – WGC-FedEx St. Jude Invitational (PGA)
WD – 3M Open (PGA)
MC – the Memorial Tournament (PGA)
WON – Travelers Championship (PGA)
2022: Patrick Reed (-16) – THE NORTHERN TRUST – Liberty National
T22 – Wyndham Championship (PGA)
T12 – WGC-FedEx St. Jude Invitational (PGA)
10 – The Open Championship (MAJ)
T23 – 3M Open (PGA)
T5 – Rocket Mortgage Classic (PGA)
Picks:
Outrights:
Hideki Matsuyama (+2800) – FanDuel
Risk 0.29 to win 8.12 Units
Tom Kim (+3300) – BetMGM
Risk 0.25 to win 8.25 Units
Sungjae Im (+4000) – FanDuel
Risk 0.20 to win 8.00 Units
Sahith Theegala (+4500) – FanDuel
Risk 0.18 to win 8.10 Units
Total Risk on Outrights: 0.92 Units
Top 20:
Billy Horschel (+115) – BetMGM
Risk 1.00 to win 1.15 Units
Adam Scott (+140) – BetMGM
Risk 1.00 to win 1.40 Units
Total Risk on Top 20s: 2.00 Units
As always, all of my placement bets are through BetMGM as they’re one of the only books without dead-heat rules. If you’d like to bet these placements at BetMGM, you can get up to $1500 in Bonus Bets if you don’t win if you’re a first-time user. Must Be 21+. Gambling Problem? Call or Text 1-800-GAMBLER.
Total Risk on the FedEx St. Jude Championship: 2.92 Units
Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting. Any feedback whether positive or negative is always encouraged.
We are now in the midst of Preseason action which means real NFL games are just around the corner. I’ve put together 9 preview articles that break down the season win predictions for every team in football, and then look to the playoffs and what teams have value in the futures. I have gone through the entire schedule game by game and have found some great values on season win totals. I’ll highlight my top plays along the way and get you my picks division by division.
My all time tracked record in the NFL currently sits at 228-191-7 with a 3.4% ROI as we had a huge 2021 and a slight winning campaign in 2022 and 2023. You can find all my packages available here at TheOddsBreakers.com
Wanna know anything else? Hit me up on Twitter or whatever it’s called now @TheGreatKnoche.
NFC South
2023 Records
Tampa Bay 9-8/ New Orleans 9-8/ Atlanta 7-10/ Carolina 2-15
Atlanta Falcons
How the leadership group in Atlanta thought Desmond Ridder was going to be the answer is beyond me, but they’ve fixed the QB issues bringing in Kirk Cousins to mentor first round pick Michael Penix Jr. Also Raheem Morris will get his second shot as an NFL Heach coach not counting his interim stint in Atlanta just a few years ago. Morris added Zac Robinson former passing game coordinator for the Rams as his OC and I expect a much more pass heavy unit on offense for Atlanta. They still have solid weapons at running back featuring Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier. We should find out if Kyle Pitts is someone who can be elite now that he has a QB. I don’t think so from what I’ve seen, but he isn’t as bad as his stats his first few years have shown. Drake London will be joined by Darnell Mooney and Rondale Moore to help bolster the passing game. The Falcons return all five starters on the OL, but I think they may need to work on the pass protection a bit as they still allowed 2.4 sacks per game even with limited pass attempts. They weren’t much better run blocking, so this could be the weakness that undoes Cousins arrival.
This defense was study in 2023 especially against the run. They will switch to a 3-4 scheme and drafted Ruke Orhorhoro to be that piece in the middle. The line-backing core with get athletic play maker Troy Andersen back from injury and should bolster veteran Lorenzo Carter here. The secondary is to put it mildly a work in progress. I think only 1 or two spots are solidified at this point with A.J. Terrell at one Corner and Jessie Bates likely at safety. They didn’t really address the secondary in the draft and they weren’t good against big plays in 2023. They will need to have someone step up in the secondary or no lead may be safe.
They get the easiest schedule in the league for the second year in a row and Kirk Cousins should be worth a few more wins than the seven they got last season.
Vegas Win Projection: 9.5 Juiced Over -135, Under +105
New Orleans Saints
These guys…. For the second straight year I had what I thought was a very solid plus money play on them mid-year to win the division. In 2022 they choked. In 2023 they did what they needed to do down the stretch, but the Bucs just matched them step for step. I expect them to compete for the division title yet again as they had the best point differential in the division by a wide margin. Big changes are afoot on offense as longtime Saint Pete Carmichael was let go and Klint Kubiak, the passing game coordinator for Kyle Shanahan was brought in. His primary job will be getting the ground game going as they didn’t have any rushes by their running backs go for more than 20 yards aside from Taysom Hill’s designed attacks. Derek Carr has proven to be a serviceable if not elite option at QB in the league. He loses Michael Thomas, but has all his other key weapons returning at RB, WR and TE. Chris Olave looks to be a potential franchise WR on the outside. The biggest fix needed like Atlanta is the Offensive Line. Carr got knocked out of three separate games because they couldn’t keep him upright, and they couldn’t open any holes in the running game. They took OT Taliese Fuaga with the 14th overall pick and added guard Lucas Patrick in free agency. They will need to gel quickly as a unit and hope for improvement.
On defense they slipped backwards in rushing and passing stat categories vs 2023. They also had very limited amount of pressure on the QB ranking in the bottom 5 in the league in pressures and sacks. They added Chase Young who hasn’t yet lived up to potential, but certainly has the talent to address the pressure problems. The linebacker core led by Demario Davis is underwhelming. The secondary is the strength of the group and I loved the addition of Kool-Aid McKinstry in the second round. This group is likely not going to be much better than last year and age and injury is a concern with three starters over 30.
This team lived via the turnover where they feasted at +.6 TO/Game which contributed to their big point differential. I look for that to be a little closer this season, but there is again an easy schedule in play here.
Vegas Win Projection: 7.5 Juiced Under -120, Over -110
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
So even without Tom Brady the Bucs were able to claim their third straight division title. Baker Mayfield can obviously play and they should once again compete with both the Saints and Falcons for the crown this year. The team didn’t have much roster changeover outside of the draft so will need to be seen if they can produce a similar outcome. Our third NFC West Protege takes over at OC in Liam Coen coming over from the Rams. He will look to get a rushing attack going that was only 27th in EPA last season. Rachaad White is a solid back and led the league in offensive snaps by a RB in 2023. He will be joined by returning key playmakers Mike Evans, Chris Godwin and Cade Otten. They also draft an offensive lineman in the first round to try and solidify their grouping.
The defense was stellar against the run led by linebacker Lavonte David and Nose Tackle Vita Vea. Calijah Kancey took a step forward lending some quickness on the line as well. The rest of the linebackers are in a state of flux with no real great options. The secondary will feature solid safety play from Antoine Winfield Jr. and will get back a familiar face on the other side in safety Jordan Whitehead in free agency. The corners were an issue all year in 2023, and may have even lost some skill and depth in the off-season.
There are certainly some question marks still around this team. They got younger, but also lost some key pieces.
Vegas Win Projection: 7.5 Juiced Over -160, Under +130
Carolina Panthers
It’s tough to get better when you give up a bunch of draft capital to go up and get your QB of the future and you pick the wrong one. That is seemingly after one year of Bryce Young looks like what has happened. Still the supporting cast looks to be slightly improved, but we will have to see if Bryce Young can also show some improvement over his 11 Touchdown, 10 Interception, 62 Sack season. They add Diante Johnson to be the #1 receiving option alongside Jonathan Mingo and Adam Thielen. Tight end Tommy Tremble showed some chemistry and the end of last year with Young when Thielen was out. They’ll have veterans Chuba Hubbard and Miles Sanders back at running back, and invested a second round pick in Jonathan Brooks. They made a big splash signing Guard Robert Hunt to $100 Million deal. They also invested in Guard Damien Lewis a few weeks later giving Young a huge upgrade in the middle of his O-Line.
On defense they traded away their best player Brian Burns to the Giants for almost zero return. They hope free agents Jadaveon Clowney and D.J. Wonnum can solidify the line with re-signed DT Derrick Brown. At Linebacker Shaq Thompson returns from a knee injury, but they let go of versatile LB Frankie Luvu. Top cornerback Jaycee Horn has been good, but needs to stay healthy. I think the defense is solid and they keep the same DC even with the head coaching change here, but they won’t be as productive as 2023 losing Burns and Luvu
The Panthers were 29th in offensive EPA and 26th on defense and never took a snap with a lead in the 4th quarter. I see a lot of that continuing here in 2024.
Vegas Win Projection: 5.5 Juiced Over -140, Under +110
2024 NFC South Predictions:
Atlanta Falcons 10-7 (Wins Division Tie-breaker)
New Orleans Saints 10-7
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 8-9
Carolina Panthers 4-13
NFC South Action:
Atlanta Falcons – No Action They’re gonna go from a team who tried to win with ball control to a team that will likely get into some shoot-outs. Super easy schedule keeps them in the hunt. I’ve got them almost right on the number
New Orleans Saints – Over 7.5 Wins -110, 2 Units. The NFC South gets the NFC East, and AFC West. They should get 3-4 wins there and their second place schedule is VS Cleveland, VS LARams and @Green Bay. The likely need to win three division games to hit the number and I think that happens easily.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers – No Action. They did get a hard first place schedule draw, @Detroit, @Dallas and VS Baltimore. I could see them winning the division if they can steal a few of those, but I’m not sold on this group with that schedule.
Carolina Panthers – Strong Lean Under. Unless the offense gets a lot better this team is not winning 6 games. I may still pull the trigger on the under here small as their 4th place games are not easy with them facing a Cincinnati team with Joe Burrow back, an Arizona team with Kyler Murray and a Chicago team with Caleb Williams at the helm.
We have a great show for you today! Kiev O’Neil had a solid weekend of preseason football, and it is time to bring it back for week 2! We also finally get into some fantasy football! First, Kiev recaps the weekend with some hot takes and some reactions. Next, Kiev talks about some coaches that are on the up and up from a betting perspective in preseason football. Then, D-Nasty comes on and the guys get right into predicting running back usage in each team from first to fourth string. After that, they talk about the top 5 draft picks in fantasy football. Finally, Kiev talks about Circa Sports and Contest weekend! Should you have any questions for the podcast, or games that you want us to cap during our shows, please message us at Info@TheOddsBreakers.com. Have a wonderful week!
Get into 12 football contests for 50% off for only $60! Win a Guaranteed $50,000 in big survivor with a minimum $215,000 of total prizes! https://www.theSZN.com/OB is the link and you will also get entry into our The OddsBreakers +EV survivor contest guaranteeing a minimum $250 payout to the winner!
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USE PROMO CODE Football24 TO GET $100 OFF EVERY FOOTBALL PACKAGE For the rest of the 2024/2025 SEASON! ALSO GET 50% FOR YOUR FIRST MONTH FOR ANY MONTHLY SUBSCRIPTION Click here:https://theoddsbreakers.com/premium-plays/ Offer expires August 15th 2024
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Kiev O’Neil’s Sports Betting Stats and Records!
56% 139-109-5 up 22 units in the 2023 NFL Season!
55% 101-82-8 up 10 units in 2024 MLB Thus Far on 8/05/24!
2023 MLB Season 146-123-7 up 11U
2023/2024 College Basketball up 9U
63% for 2022/2023 NBA sides and totals! 22-13 up 6.5 units. 14% ROI
55% All Time NFL Sides, Teasers, Parlays, Props and Totals! 5.21% ROI
56% 2022/2023 NFL Season 136-109-11 in Sides/Totals/Teasers/Season props up 38.5U
55% All Time College Football Sides, Teasers, Parlays, Props and Totals! 4.75% ROI
63% FOR 2022 COLLEGE BOWL SEASON UP 27 UNITS!
54% Lifetime All Plays in College Basketball 3% ROI
38% Lifetime UFC On All Plays 3% ROI
62% 2022 March Madness College Basketball Plays at 30% ROI!!!
Commanders vs Jets +3 O/U 34.5
After last night’s debacle where the Steelers out-gained the Texans by 89 yards and lost, I am back ready to rebound. As far as motivation is concerned, it is tricky with the Commies. Dan Quinn went 2-2 in the preseason in his first year coaching the Falcons yet finished a horrible 1-12 in his last three seasons. On the other hand, Jets coach Robert Saleh likes to win games. He is 7-2 in preseason football. I do know that we will not see Aaron Rogers this game, but 2nd string Tyrod Taylor should be getting plenty of snaps and I could see this Jets team starting out hot. New York also will be working out some rookies. As far as rookies are concerned, is Commanders draft pick of Jayden Daniels the reason that this team is favored on the road? Right now, I would definitely say that Taylor is the better quarterback at least until Daniels Develops. Marcus Mariota is playing second fiddle this game. He does have NFL experience, yet this is still a brand new offense that he has to learn and will have growing pains. Expect to also see some rookies on the Commanders side. I think the Jets win this game, but I will take the points.
USE PROMO CODE Football24 TO GET $100 OFF EVERY FOOTBALL PACKAGE For the rest of the 2024/2025 SEASON! ALSO GET 50% FOR YOUR FIRST MONTH FOR ANY MONTHLY SUBSCRIPTION Click here:https://theoddsbreakers.com/premium-plays/ Offer expires August 15th 2024
To get Kiev’s premium winners, and to support his hard work at The OddsBreakers, pleaseClick here to get his no obligation membership packages!!! We believe in getting the best of the number and it is the only way that we do business!
Kiev O’Neil’s Sports Betting Stats and Records!
56% 139-109-5 up 22 units in the 2023 NFL Season!
55% 101-82-8 up 10 units in 2024 MLB Thus Far on 8/05/24!
2023 MLB Season 146-123-7 up 11U
2023/2024 College Basketball up 9U
63% for 2022/2023 NBA sides and totals! 22-13 up 6.5 units. 14% ROI
55% All Time NFL Sides, Teasers, Parlays, Props and Totals! 5.21% ROI
56% 2022/2023 NFL Season 136-109-11 in Sides/Totals/Teasers/Season props up 38.5U
55% All Time College Football Sides, Teasers, Parlays, Props and Totals! 4.75% ROI
63% FOR 2022 COLLEGE BOWL SEASON UP 27 UNITS!
54% Lifetime All Plays in College Basketball 3% ROI
38% Lifetime UFC On All Plays 3% ROI
62% 2022 March Madness College Basketball Plays at 30% ROI!!!
Texans vs Steelers +2.5 O/U 37.5
NFL Preseason is under way and unders thus far have been the way to go. In saying that, we have to be careful as some teams are playing some pretty good players in the beginning of the games. In tonight’s game with the Steelers hosting the Texans, Houston coach Demeco Ryans said that he will be starting his starters. This caused a pretty significant line move shifting the Texans to the favorite for tonight’s matchup. In saying this, the Steelers also will be starting a good quarterback in Justin Fields as Russell Wilson is being listed as out due to his calf injury. I think that the bigger reason for Houston being the favorite is that the backup quarterbacks are considered better with Davis Mills and Case Keenum battling it out, but we must not forget that they still are rostering Tim Boyle, and I think that we get a good dose of him in the second half. Also, you may or may not have noticed that the Texans have a pretty poor third string defense as the Bears were able to walk up and down the field using their third string backups in the Hall of Fame Game. Demeco Ryans hasn’t had a big enough sample size to see how motivated that he truly is to get a W, but we do know that Steelers coach Mike Tomlin is 41-20 at 67% in the preseason. I also know that Tomlin will be playing some Kyle Allen in this game, who was also a starter at one time for the Carolina Panthers. He has hopes of staying on the squad as the backup over John Rhys Plumblee. I am going to go with Pittsburgh here to win the game outright and continue Mike Tomlin’s preseason success.
We have arrived at the first few days of Preseason action which means real NFL games are just around the corner. I’ve put together 9 preview articles that break down the season win predictions for every team in football, and then look to the playoffs and what teams have value in the futures. I have gone through the entire schedule game by game and have found some great values on season win totals. I’ll highlight my top plays along the way and get you my picks division by division.
My all time tracked record in the NFL currently sits at 228-191-7 with a 3.4% ROI as we had a huge 2021 and a slight winning campaign in 2022 and 2023. You can find all my packages available here at TheOddsBreakers.com
Wanna know anything else? Hit me up on Twitter or whatever it’s called now @TheGreatKnoche.
NFCNorth
2023 Records
Detroit 12-5/ Green Bay 9-8/ Minnesota 7-10/ Chicago 7-10
Detroit Lions
It took 30 years, but the Lions finally claimed a NFC North division title. Well I guess it was only 21 years because the 9 year division drought before that was in the NFC Central. The question for 2024 will be if the Lions can make that first ever trip to the Super Bowl. The offense should continue to be in a good spot as they return OC Ben Johnson who turned down Head coach positions this off-season. Jared Goff had a career high in completion percentage and threw for 30 touchdowns in 2023. He should continue to excel in this offense. They have a two-headed monster at running back with David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs who combined to be the first duo in NFL history to run for 1,000 yards and 10 touchdowns each in the same season. Two of the main three targets at receiver return with Amon-Ra St. Brown signing an extension and Sam La Porta. Josh Reynolds departs. The offensive line returns two Pro Bowlers already and adds veteran Pro Bowl Guard Kevin Zeitler.
The defense was much improved in 2023, but still has some work to do to really solidify this group as a Super Bowl favorite this season. The secondary is the major area of concern where they were 31st is passing yards and 25th in defensive passing EPA. They traded for CB Carlton Davis to be their top cover man and used their top two draft picks on corner as well. They really got burned at safety as well allowing 69 pass plays of 20+ yards. Up front they signed Marcus Davenport to go opposite Aidan Hutchinson and D.J Reader a run first DT. All Three starting LBs will be back and they were a top half unit in 2023 and should only get better with Jack Campbell now in his second season.
This is a two team race in this division still, but I think the Lions are the King of The North. They should be a Super Bowl favorite as well if that secondary can right itself.
Vegas Win Projection: 10.5 Juiced Over -125, Under -105
Green Bay Packers
The Packers were better than most thought in 2023 thanks to the emergence of now Franchise QB Jordan Love. They closed the season on a 7-3 run and then blasted the Cowboys in the playoffs before falling to the 49ers in San Francisco after leading early. Love had something click for him half way through the season. His final eight games produced 18 Touchdowns and just one interception to pair with a 70.3% completion percentage. He certainly became more comfortable with his offense and his young receiving group. The core four of those pass catchers will all be back in 2024. They do swap Aaron Jones for Josh Jacobs at RB and I think that is a down-grade as Jones is much more versatile in the passing game. On the offensive line David Bakhtiari is gone, but he’s been basically injured since COVID hit. They have also moved on from Jon Runyan. They did take OT Jordan Morgan in the first round of the draft to help, but the OL is likely to be a down-grade in 2024.
Much like the Lions the Packers issues aren’t on the offensive side of the ball, but on the defensive side. The Packers move on to yet another defensive coordinator with Jeff Hafley coming on board from Boston College. They will switch from Green Bay’s long standing 3-4 to a 4-3 scheme. The defensive line will be solid anchored by DT Kenny Clark and EDGE Rashan Gary. They are looking for a big step forward from the other two former First rounders on the line Devonte Wyatt and Luke Van Ness. Linebacker is a weak spot as they invested two high draft picks on it this year and hope Quay Walker figures things out. In the secondary they have lots of questions outside of free agent signing safety Xavier McKinney. CB Jaire Alexander has been solid when healthy, but he also has been a locker room issue. Eric Stokes hasn’t been able to stay healthy on his opposite side. The other safety spot will be a big open competition as the Pack drafted three safeties.
I think the Pack aren’t as talented as the Lions, but I think Matt LaFleur is a much better coach than Dan Campbell. If they can get better defensive play under Hafley’s guidance this team will be a force.
Vegas Win Projection: 9.5 Juiced Over -135, Under +105
Chicago Bears
For those of you not aware, Kiev who runs the website here at TheOddsbreakers.com is a Bears fan. I am a Packers fan. Even with yet another first round QB coming into the fold in Chicago (Third now since 2017) I think I am going to watch the Packers demolish the Bears yet again this season. Now back to the regularly scheduled program of Caleb Williams arriving in Chicago, who I believe is going to be the real deal. Anyone who has watched his college games can clearly see he has the skills and moxie to compete at an NFL level. The only thing holding him back will be between his ears as his emotions have come out some in key moments. He comes into a great situation with veteran receivers D.J. Moore and Keenan Allen to help him get his feet wet. They also drafted WR Rome Odunze in the first round who led the nation in yards at Washington. They signed D’Andre Swift to upgrade the running back spot and still have Cole Kmet rocking the TE position. All in all plenty of weapons for Caleb Williams to start with. The offensive line is kind of an unknown even though they return four starters. The rushing stats in Chicago were elevated due to Justin Fields propensity to run. The sack totals weren’t great for the group finishing 25th in sacks allowed, but some of those may also be attributed to Fields throwing ability.
On defense they were much improved compared to 2022 finishing first against the run. Montez Sweat coming over mid-season was a huge improvement for them. He also became the first person to ever lead two different teams in sacks in the same season. The rest of the front four were uninspiring and losing Justin Jones will hurt, but the linebacking core is elite led by T.J. Edwards and Tremaine Edwards. Jaylon Johnson champions a secondary that while improved is still below average. They hope adding safeties Jonathan Owens and Kevin Byard will help with that.
There is a real chance Caleb Williams is C.J. Stroud 2.0 with the array of pieces he has around him, but he is still a rookie QB in the NFL. For every Dak, Big Ben or Andrew Luck there are plenty more Trevor Lawrence, Peyton Manning, Bryce Young or Sam Darnold’s out there. I think the talent level of the Bears is middling overall so I see this being an improved if still flawed team.
Vegas Win Projection: 8.5 Juiced Over -155, Under +125
Minnesota Vikings
Speaking of Sam Darnold, when will J.J. McCarthy become the starter in Minnesota. Looking at this murderer’s row of a schedule to start after Week 1, I am going to say when they are 1-6 and getting ready to host the Indianapolis Colts. This team was 3-6 last season without Kirk Cousins and I think they have gone backwards in the talent department. From a pass catcher perspective there are plenty of options with Justin Jefferson leading the way. When you also boast Jordan Addison and T.J. Hockenson there are match-up issues all over the field for opposing defenses. That being said T.J.H. is coming off an ACL injury and won’t be back right away (Maybe Mid-October) and the other receivers are below average at best. Their OL is decent at tackle, but have three of the worst starters returning on the interior. New RB Aaron Jones will try and run behind this below average OL, but I find it more likely that Sam Darnold is running for his life, than Jones is running downfield.
On defense the line takes a step back losing Danielle Hunter and D.J. Wonnum on the edges. They will need to hope first round pick Dallas Turner is a success and Jonthan Greenard can repeat his 2023 performance in Houston. The interior of the line is messy, and likely to be exploited by hard-nosed downhill rushing teams. I like the Blake Cashman signing at linebacker, but the unit is still below average and they lost their best player in Jordan Hicks. In the secondary Shaquill Griffin is past his prime, but will start on one corner and five others will vie for the other outside and nickel positions. Safety is more secure with veteran Harrison Smith, but at 35 he has slowed a few steps. I like what Brian Flores did with this unit last year to keep them in games, but he will really have to work his magic to improve with the talent losses they sustained in the off-season.
It will take a miracle to get to the playoffs, and I am very much in the camp that this will be a rebuilding year for the Vikings with J.J. McCarthy getting a look mid-season.
Vegas Win Projection: 6.5 Juiced Over -175, Under +145
2024 NFC North Predictions:
Detroit Lions 12-5
Green Bay Packers 11-6
Chicago Bears 8-9
Minnesota Vikings 3-14
NFC West Action:
Detroit Lions – No Action. The NFC North gets the NFC West and the AFC South, neither of which is elite, I think the Lions take full advantage, but this number seems fair. Plus they are one Jared Goff injury away from disaster.
Green Bay Packers – Lean Over. I am not betting this one, but it’s a strong lean. My head to head game analysis says 11 wins. My look at the schedule and a rough at large group of Philly, Miami and New Orleans tells me to maybe hold my horses a little bit. If they can get the opening win against Philly in Brazil the rest of their opening schedule isn’t that strong. I could see them being 7-2 or 8-1 before their first tilt with the Lions. be good candidates for a Mid-season under.
Chicago Bears – No Action. They have a really nice 4th place at-large schedule of Carolina, Washington and New England. I’m Not betting on a rookie QB to rattle off 9 wins though.
Minnesota Vikings – Under 6.5 Wins +145, 1.5 Units. My first official play is fading Sam Darnold and a team with a defense in flux. Their at-large opponents are the Giants, Jets and Falcons. Two of those teams obviously get a big upgrade at QB from 2023. The only way they win seven games is to be in plenty of shoot-outs and I like my chances of whoever is under center on another team putting up more offense than Sam Darnold. Plus I think there is some solid opportunity to get a decent middle (Especially at +145) going with a mid-season bet. The schedule to start off with for the Vikings is @NYG, vs SF, vs HOU, @GB, vs NYJ, VS DET, @LAR. I’d be shocked if they are above 2-5 at that point and more likely 1-6. Good mid-year spot to bet the over before the easier part of the schedule arrives.
Get into 12 football contests for 50% off for only $60! Win a Guaranteed $50,000 in big survivor with a minimum $200,000 of total prizes! Also, for new users, please click on this link for AN EXTRA $10 off! That is 12 pools for $50! https://www.theSZN.com/OB is the link, but not just that!
We have a great show for you today! Brett Ciancia from Pick Six Previews comes on to talk about his wonderful college football magazine as well as some big conference season win totals. First, Kiev talks about NFL preseason week one with a bunch of leans and a nice Free Play! Next, Brett comes on and the guys get right into Pick Six Previews. We talk about how and why Brett got started in this industry and how this magazine is great for the sports bettor. Then, We talk about how Brett became a Heisman trophy voter. We discuss all the stats and break downs in his football magazine. Finally, the guys talk about some overrated/underrated teams in the big 4 conferences with some season win total plays! Should you have any questions for the podcast, or games that you want us to cap during our shows, please message us at Info@TheOddsBreakers.com. Have a wonderful week!
Get into 12 football contests for 50% off for only $60! Win a Guaranteed $50,000 in big survivor with a minimum $215,000 of total prizes! https://www.theSZN.com/OB is the link and you will also get entry into our The OddsBreakers +EV survivor contest guaranteeing a minimum $250 payout to the winner!
Use Promo Code Football24 TO GET $100 OFF EVERY FOOTBALL OR YEARLY PACKAGE or 50% OFF THE FIRST MONTH OF ANY MONTHLY PACKAGE for the rest of the 2024 season! Click here: https://theoddsbreakers.com/premium-plays/Offer expires August 31ST 2024
If you want to subscribe to support us and get some very frequent winners please Click Here to become a member of The OddsBreakers and gain access to premium plays BEFORE the line moves! Or, you can visit theoddsbreakers.com and click shop and pick one of our great handicappers including Kiev O’Neil @OBKiev at only $84 per month on a 1 year subscription!
You could also support us at Patreon.com for only $10 a month to help us out and thank us for some free plays as well as get some extra benefits and merchandise. Follow us @TheOddsBreakers on social media!
