We have a great show for you today! Peter Simones from The Season is back to break down their amazing football contests! First, Kiev talks about DraftKings and how they now will add a tax on winnings in four politically corrupt states. Next, Kiev talks about our power ratings posted to our website. Then, he talks a little preseason football and a bet that he made when the lines came out. After that, Peter comes on and the guys get right into the SZN! What kinds of contests does the season offer? How big are the payouts? What is the guarantees? What makes these football contests unique? Get 50% off here! https://www.theSZN.com/OB. Should you have any questions for the podcast, or games that you want us to cap during our shows, please message us at Info@TheOddsBreakers.com. Have a wonderful week!
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We have arrived at the first few days of Preseason action which means real NFL games are just around the corner. I’ve put together 9 preview articles that break down the season win predictions for every team in football, and then look to the playoffs and what teams have value in the futures. I have gone through the entire schedule game by game and have found some great values on season win totals. I’ll highlight my top plays along the way and get you my picks division by division.
My all time tracked record in the NFL currently sits at 228-191-7 with a 3.4% ROI as we had a huge 2021 and a slight winning campaign in 2022 and 2023. You can find all my packages available here at TheOddsBreakers.com
Wanna know anything else? Hit me up on Twitter or whatever it’s called now @TheGreatKnoche.
NFC West
2023 Records
San Francisco 12-5/ Los Angeles Rams 10-7/ Seattle 9-8/ Arizona 4-13
San Francisco49ers
The 49ers cruised to another division title in 2023, but once again came up short where it matters in the playoffs. The QB question has been answered and they return all 11 starters on offense for a unit that put up the second most yards in the NFL last season. Brock Purdy should continue to develop and he has plenty of weapons with four 1,000 yard producers in Christian McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk and George Kittle. They also used their first round pick on a receiver Ricky Pearsall to give Purdy another potential top level talent.
On defense they fired first year coordinator Steve Wilks despite allowing the third fewest points in the NFL. This was a step back from the top unit in the league in 2022. They promoted from within hiring Nick Sorensen, but also brought in Brandon Staley to assist him. At least Staley won’t be making important 4th down decisions for the offense. They lost a good chunk of the defensive line, but brought in Leonard Floyd and his sack prowess to help Joey Bosa. At linebacker they hope to have Dre Greenlaw back from his Super Bowl Achilles injury, but this unit should be good as well in 2024. The Secondary I think got better adding Isaac Yiadom to a talented top duo on the outside and they will get back safety Talonoa Hufanga from an ACL.
The division should be better overall this year, but the 49ers should still glide to a third straight NFC West title. Can they get over the playoff hump is the question.
Vegas Win Projection: 11.5 Juiced Under -135, Over +105
Los Angeles Rams
I was one of the few industry folk who were on the Rams to bounce back following their Super Bowl hangover season nailing the Over 6.5 Wins with ease. On offense Matthew Stafford continued to age gracefully and found solace in his new weapon Puca Nacua when veteran Cooper Kupp was injured. He will be without Tyler Higbee as his safety valve for a bit while he recovers from a playoff knee injury. Kyren Williams had a breakout campaign in 2023 and will get to run behind an improved offensive line this season as they added Pro Bowl Guard Jonah Jackson.
Defensively they lose All-Time great Aaron Donald to retirement and will have a big hole to fill on the line and in the locker room. The Rams chose to invest heavily in the pass rush to start the process drafting Florida State duo Jared Verse and Braden Fiske to bolster the line in the first two rounds. They join DT Kobie Turner who was runner-up for defensive rookie of the year. LB Earnest Jones also played a prominent roll in impact plays in 2023, the question for both him and Turner is how much of that was because of all the attention Donald garnered. The secondary also took a hit losing captain safety Jordan Fuller. The final major loss was DC Raheem Morris heading to coach Atlanta.
As long as Stafford stays healthy they should put up points with Sean McVay pulling the strings and be competitive. Even if he doesn’t Jimmy G is there as a backup now so the drop-off won’t be as large. Hard to see another step forward to challenge San Fran with a more depleted defense however.
Vegas Win Projection: 8.5 Juiced Over -145, Under +115
Seattle Seahawks
Pete Carroll is gone. Geno Smith is back. Geno will look to get back to his 2022 numbers and will have the receiving core to do it with DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett and Jaxon Smith-Njigba at his disposal. They have a solid running back duo of Kenneth Walker and Zach Charbonnet who will run behind a much healthier offensive line to start than what they saw most of last year. Abraham Lucas missed 11 games and Charles Cross missed some time as well. They drafted Christian Haynes in the third round however to be their starter at Right Guard replacing departed Damien Lewis who was a solid four year starter for the Seahawks.
The defense was a mess last year at 30th in EPA. They should be much better in 2024. They extended deadline addition Leonard Williams and made DT their priority in the first round of the draft grabbing Byron Murphy who I had graded much higher than 16th overall. They also snagged Jonathan Hankins in Free Agency. Add the additions to linebackers Darrell Taylor and Baye Mafe and I could see Seattle having one of the best pass rushing units in the league. The secondary is led by elite second year corner Devon Witherspoon and Safety Julian Love and should be one of the best units in football here as well. The only major question will be in the middle at Linebacker as they lose leading tackler and All-Pro Bobby Wagner.
The question marks for Seattle are at QB and the new coaches. Mike McDonald takes over and is bringing in a College Coach former Washington Huskies coordinator Ryan Grubb to call plays. I don’t know if this translates to the NFL, but only time will tell. If Pete Carroll were still here I would probably have more faith in the SeaTurkeys.
Vegas Win Projection: 7.5 Juiced Over -140, Under +110
Arizona Cardinals
Can a healthy Kyler Murray make a difference for the Cardinals and get them back to the playoffs in 2024? Maybe. Murray is entering his sixth NFL season, and I haven’t seen enough out of his arm when he has been healthy to make me a believer. He still has amazing athleticism and will need all of it to make them a contender. They did get him some help at receiver drafting Marvin Harrison Jr. Adding him to Michael Wilson and Trey McBride give him lots of options to throw to. The running game returns James Connor and the Cards were 4th in the NFL in rushing yards per game last year. I like the upgrade on the OL with the addition of tackle Jonah Williams from the Bengals.
The defense is the major issue of concern checking in at 31st in points allowed in 2023. They spent plenty of money in the off-season to upgrade it bringing in Justin Jones and Bilal Nichols on the interior of the line, linebacker Mack Wilson Sr. and cornerback Sean Murphy-Bunting. First round pick Darius Robinson could be a big havoc maker behind the line of scrimmage. Kyzir White anchors the linebacker group and should pair well with Wilson. Budah Baker and Jalen Thompson are elite at safety and they will be joined in the secondary by second round pick Max Melton and Murphy-Bunting.
This team is a wild card for me. Not being sold on Murray and at least six new starters on defense are the question marks. That being said they could certainly surprise some and challenge for a playoff spot if things go right.
Vegas Win Projection: 6.5 Juiced Over -175, Under +145
2024 NFC West Predictions:
San Francisco 49ers 11-6
Los Angeles Rams 9-8
Seattle Seahawks 8-9
Arizona Cardinals 7-10
NFC West Action:
San Francisco 49ers – No Action. Tough Schedule with KC, Dallas and Tampa as the variable games, and they travel to Buffalo and Miami. They’ll be good, but they’re gonna lose some games.
Los Angeles Rams – Lean Over. I think the defense will find a way without Donald, but that AFC East/NFC North cross division combo is brutal for all these teams.
Seattle Seahawks – No Action. I think this could go either way with the new coaches and I am not touching it.
Arizona Cardinals – Lean Over, I like the defensive overhaul and the offensive weapons, but at -175 I just don’t trust Kyler Murray enough to pull the trigger. I don’t hate the +275 to make the playoffs though if you want a flyer in this division.
It’s Whitney Day at Saratoga Race Course this Saturday, featuring four graded stakes races, including three Grade 1 events highlighted by the prestigious Whitney Stakes.
Welcome to my Saratoga Race Course Preview & Picks, where I provide expert analysis and insights into the most exciting races on the calendar. Each week, I’ll examine the form, pedigree, and recent performances of the top contenders, offering informed predictions and strategic picks to help you navigate the thrilling world of horse racing. Whether you’re a seasoned punter or a casual fan, my previews are designed to give you valuable perspectives and enhance your race-day experience. Join me as I break down the key factors, highlight standout horses, and share my top selections for the upcoming races, ensuring you’re well-prepared for a day at the track.
Weather:
Day: Scattered thunderstorms in the morning becoming more widespread in the afternoon. High 86F. Winds SSW at 5 to 10 mph. Chance of rain 70%.
Saratoga Derby Invitational Stakes (Grade 1)
Race History:
The Saratoga Derby Invitational Stakes is a relatively new but already esteemed event in American Thoroughbred horse racing, inaugurated in 2019. Held annually at the historic Saratoga Race Course in Saratoga Springs, New York, this race is part of the New York Racing Association’s Turf Triple series, which aims to provide a prestigious turf racing opportunity for three-year-old horses. The Saratoga Derby is contested over a distance of 1 3/16 miles on turf, and it quickly gained prominence due to its generous purse and the high quality of competitors it attracts.
Race Information:
Date: August 3rd, 2024
Track: Saratoga Race Course
Location: Saratoga Springs, New York, United States
he Test Stakes is a prestigious American Thoroughbred horse race that has been held annually since 1923. The race takes place at the renowned Saratoga Race Course in Saratoga Springs, New York, and is restricted to three-year-old fillies. Over the years, the Test Stakes has become a significant event in the racing calendar, showcasing some of the finest young female horses in the sport. The race is run over a distance of seven furlongs on dirt, and its name “Test” reflects the challenging nature of the competition, serving as a proving ground for these promising horses.
Race Information:
Date: August 3rd, 2024
Track: Saratoga Race Course
Location: Saratoga Springs, New York, United States
The Whitney Stakes, one of the premier events in American Thoroughbred horse racing, has been held annually since 1928 at the historic Saratoga Race Course in Saratoga Springs, New York. Named in honor of the prominent Whitney family, whose contributions to horse racing have been monumental, the race is open to horses aged three years and older and is contested over a distance of 1 1/8 miles on dirt. Throughout its storied history, the Whitney Stakes has attracted some of the sport’s most exceptional horses, trainers, and jockeys, with many winners going on to secure Horse of the Year honors. The race is renowned for its competitive fields and thrilling finishes, cementing its status as a highlight of the summer racing season at Saratoga.
Race Information:
Date: August 3rd, 2024
Track: Saratoga Race Course
Location: Saratoga Springs, New York, United States
Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting. Any feedback whether positive or negative is always encouraged.
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Giants vs Reds -135 O/U 8.5
Did you see that no no last night from Blake Snell? Wish he could have told me how great he was feeling before the game. Anyways, from greatness there is also a side of embarrassment, and the Reds will look to rebound. Hunter Greene takes the mound today for the big red machine, and he has been more than solid with a 2.97 ERA and a 3.07 xERA. Kyle Harrison will start for the Giants with a 3.69 ERA and a bad 4.67 xERA. One thing that the Reds have is a good bullpen rankings 4th in FIP at 3.64 to the Giants ranking 12th in FIP at 3.85. Neither team is all that good at htting with Cincinnati at a .301 wOBA and San Francisco with a 3.07. I will say that Cincinnati has been the unluckier team with only a .260 BABIP to a .279 for Franny. I will go with the Reds to bounce back today after getting no-hit. This should be a good spot for them.
My how the tables have turned between these two teams. The Cubs after a solid start to the year are now 52-58 while the Cardinals are 56-52 after a rough start to the season. The good thing for the cubbies is that they have their ace in Shota Imanaga at the helm pitching today. Imanaga boasts a strong 2.95 ERA with a 3.47 xERA. The Cardinals have wannabe ace Sonney Gray at the helm with a rougher 3.79 ERA and a 3.71 xERA. I wish I could say that the Cubs have bullpen advantage, but they clearly do not ranking 13th in FIP to the Cardinals ranking 9th. Somehow, the Cubs still have a hitting advantage still ranking 8th in wRC+ to the Cardinals at 20th. I think the Cubs are just as good as this team and should be the bigger favorite at home, but I only trust the 1st five innings here.
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To get Kiev’s premium winners, and to support his hard work at The OddsBreakers, pleaseClick here to get his no obligation membership packages!!! We believe in getting the best of the number and it is the only way that we do business!
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We have a great show for you today! Kelley Ford @KFordRatings is back to break down some college football! First, we discuss what KFord ratings are and if he made any updates over the past year. Next, Kelley and Kiev talk about some of his different metrics and how he comes up with them. Then, the guys talk about the ACC breaking down the teams and their rankings juxtaposed with their conference win totals. Finally, the guys get into the group of five conferences with some overated/underrated thoughts and plays. Should you have any questions for the podcast, or games that you want us to cap during our shows, please message us at Info@TheOddsBreakers.com. Have a wonderful week!
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If you want to subscribe to support us and get some very frequent winners please Click Here to become a member of The OddsBreakers and gain access to premium plays BEFORE the line moves! Or, you can visit theoddsbreakers.com and click shop and pick one of our great handicappers including Kiev O’Neil @OBKiev at only $84 per month on a 1 year subscription!
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The Circa NFL football contests are back, and the payouts are bigger than ever! If you are a sports bettor, and are unfamiliar with these betting games, then I highly recommend that you to check it out immediately and ask yourself why you are not included in all of the fun. The Circa Millions is an NFL 18 week contest where you pick five games on fixed numbers against the spread and see if you can come out the big winner of $1 million dollars at the end! There is also a guaranteed 6 million dollars in total payouts as well as a nice blue jacket. The Circa survivor is an 18 week 20 pick contest where your team must win every week to take home a massive guaranteed 10 million dollars! In case of a tie, you have the opportunity to share it! Circa Sports CEO Derek Stevens has really stepped up his game by adding a massive 2 million extra in payouts to make a total of $16,000,000.00 in contest payouts with no rake whatsoever. The Circa NFL contests are literally blowing everything else way. Here are some of the highlighted changes for 2024. For more information, please see Circasports.com or FootballContest.com for details.
Circa Millions has 6 million dollars in guaranteed payouts! The quarterly prizes include $300,000 paid out to the top 5 quarterly scored participants. Just in case you have a rough quarter, you still can potentially win the next! This contest is also paying out 3.65M to the top 2-100 entries at the end of the year! There is now a second place booby prize for $50,000.00 and $25,000.00 booby prizes that are paid out every quarter. Talk about stepping it up! Here are the highlights below courtesy of Circa Sports.
$1,000 to enter, 5 entries per person max
Make 5 NFL picks against the spread each week
Get one point for each correct selection and one-half point for each push
$6 Million guaranteed in total prizes
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$300,000 per “Quarter” in prizes awarded every 4-5 weeks
$100,000 last place booby prize / $50,000 second to last place booby prize
No Rake! Any extra fees go into the quarter and full-season prizes
Circa Survivor now has a guaranteed 10 million dollars in total payouts! There are 20 total legs in this contest with Thanksgiving day games and Christmas games being their own week. Here are the highlights below.
$1,000 to enter, 10 entries per person max (can rebuy up to ten additional entries until the registration deadline if you lose on the opening TNF or Friday game)
Up to 20 picks in 2024: NFL Weeks 1 – 18, plus Thanksgiving Day/Black Friday and Christmas Leg (Wed/Thur)
Each NFL team can only be selected once per each entry during the contest
No Rake! – the last remaining entry wins the entire survivor pool: $10 Million guaranteed, plus more if entries exceed $10 Million
Entries are eliminated from the contest by selecting a team that subsequently loses or ties its NFL game that week or continues until a single entry remains
The contest continues until a single entry remains
If more than one entry remains after all 20 legs, the pool is split equally among all the entries that successfully submitted a selection during the leg
If all remaining entries lose in the same week, the pool is split equally among all the entries that successfully submitted a selection during the leg
Picks are due at 4 p.m. PST every Saturday or before kickoff of the selected game (whichever is earlier), except for:
Thanksgiving Day/Black Friday: picks are due by 10 p.m. PST Wednesday, November 27
Christmas Leg: picks are due by 9 a.m. PST Wednesday, December 25
See everyone’s picks here and on Twitter @CircaSports each week!
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Sign ups are happening in these contests RIGHT NOW and with all of the money that Derek Steven’s has put up, there even might be an overlay that will switch the value of your participation in your favor. Please see footballcontest.com for details and may the football gods be with you this year!
The 2024 Paris Olympics marks the third Games since golf was reintroduced in 2016.
Pre-Tournament Storylines
Winners Prize
Gold medalists will receive the following benefits: exemptions into all major championships during the 2025 season, an exemption into THE PLAYERS Championship and The Sentry in 2025 (provided they are a member of the PGA TOUR at the time of their victory in the men’s Olympic golf competition), and Official World Golf Ranking points.
Xander Schauffele
Defending gold medalist from the 2020 Tokyo Olympics, Xander Schauffele, arrives in Paris as the No. 2 player in the Official World Golf Ranking. He recently claimed his second major championship title of the year at The Open Championship at Royal Troon two weeks ago, adding to his victory at the 2024 PGA Championship.
French National Team
Frenchman Mattieu Pavon will compete in his first Olympics on home soil after a career-changing season on the PGA TOUR, during which he claimed his first TOUR title at the Farmers Insurance Open in January. His debut performance at Le Golf National came in 2016 at the FedEx Open de France (MC). Fellow Frenchman Victor Perez will also be making his Olympic debut this year after earning PGA TOUR membership for the 2024 season.
Tommy Fleetwood
Tommy Fleetwood (GBR) has won at Le Golf National twice, once in the 2018 Ryder Cup team competition and again at the 2017 FedEx Open de France.
Byeong Hun An
Byeong Hun An (KOR) comes from a family of Olympians. His parents, Jae-Hyung Ahn (KOR – bronze) and Jiao Zhimin (CHN – silver and bronze), both medaled in table tennis at the 1988 Seoul Olympics.
2018 Ryder Cup
The last time we saw Le Golf National on an international level was at the 2018 Ryder Cup when Europe defeated the United States 17 1/2 to 10 1/2. Five former Ryder Cup participants from the 2018 Ryder Cup winning European Team (Rory McIlroy, Jon Rahm, Tommy Fleetwood, Alex Noren and Thorbjørn Olesen) will compete again at Le Golf National.
Possible Playoff
If two athletes are tied for the lead after 72 holes, a hole-by-hole playoff will be conducted to determine the gold and silver medals, or if three or more athletes are tied for the first position, a playoff will be conducted to determine the gold, silver and bronze medals. If two or more athletes are tied for the second position, a playoff will be conducted to determine the silver and bronze medals. If two or more athletes are tied for the third position, a playoff will be conducted for the bronze medal. In any case, only one gold, one silver and one bronze medal will be awarded.
Course Architect: Hubert Chesneau and Robert von Hagge (1990)
Recent Renovations:
European Golf Design (2015) Renovation included remodeling of No. 1 and No. 16 greens, redesign of No. 11 and work on lake edging on holes No. 1, 2, 15, 16 and 18.
The course will close in October to modify holes No. 4 and No. 5 to make room for an upcoming metro line.
Le Golf National, situated in Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines near Paris, France, is one of Europe’s most prestigious golf venues. Conceived in the 1980s, the course was designed by American architect Robert von Hagge along with Hubert Chesneau and Pierre Thevenin. Construction commenced in 1987, culminating in its official opening in 1990. The French Golf Federation (FFG) envisioned this facility as a flagship venue to promote and host major golfing events in France.
The complex features three courses: L’Albatros, L’Aigle, and L’Oiselet. L’Albatros, the championship course, is renowned for its challenging layout and numerous water hazards, making it a favorite among professional golfers. L’Aigle offers a slightly less demanding but still formidable experience, while L’Oiselet is a nine-hole course designed for beginners and practice sessions.
Le Golf National has been the home of the French Open (Open de France), a prominent European Tour event, since 1991, with a few exceptions. Its international acclaim was further solidified when it hosted the Ryder Cup in 2018, where Europe triumphed over the United States in a memorable competition. The course is also set to host the golf events for the 2024 Summer Olympics in Paris, further cementing its status on the global stage.
To maintain its top-tier status, Le Golf National has undergone several renovations, particularly before the 2018 Ryder Cup, ensuring it meets the highest standards for international competition. Widely regarded as one of Europe’s best courses, it is known for its strategic design, challenging water features, and excellent facilities. Le Golf National continues to be a central hub for both French and international golf, hosting major tournaments and attracting golfers from around the world.
Golf’s history at the Olympics is a tale of early inclusion, a long absence, and a modern revival. The sport made its Olympic debut at the 1900 Paris Games, featuring both men’s and women’s individual competitions. Charles Sands and Margaret Abbott, both from the United States, won the first Olympic gold medals in golf. In 1904, golf was included again in the St. Louis Olympics, with George Lyon of Canada winning the men’s individual event and the United States securing the team gold.
After the 1904 Olympics, golf was removed from the Olympic program, a decision influenced by the sport’s limited global reach and organizational challenges. This hiatus lasted for over a century, during which the sport grew significantly in popularity and international presence. Efforts to reinstate golf in the Olympics gained traction in the early 21st century, culminating in the International Olympic Committee’s decision in 2009 to reintroduce the sport at the 2016 Rio de Janeiro Games.
The 2016 Rio Olympics marked golf’s return to the Olympic stage, with Justin Rose of Great Britain and Inbee Park of South Korea winning the gold medals in the men’s and women’s events, respectively. The competition’s success underscored golf’s global appeal and set the stage for its inclusion in future Games. Golf was again featured in the 2020 Tokyo Olympics, where Xander Schauffele of the United States won the men’s gold medal, and Nelly Korda, also from the United States, claimed the women’s gold.
Course Guide/ Scorecard:
Hole
Par
Yards
1
4
419
2
3
210
3
5
558
4
4
486
5
4
405
6
4
380
7
4
457
8
3
208
9
5
579
OUT
36
3,702
10
4
375
11
3
174
12
4
433
13
4
414
14
5
552
15
4
405
16
3
168
17
4
480
18
4
471
IN
35
3,472
TOTAL
71
7,174
Featured/ Signature Hole(s): 15-16, 18
For a hole-by-hole overview of the course, you can click the following link.
Key Statistics:
Strokes Gained: Off the Tee
Success this week will hinge on players’ ability to position themselves effectively off the tee. While the course’s considerable length underscores the significance of distance, precision holds equal importance.
Leaders in this category in the last 24 Rounds:
Rory McIlroy
Min Woo Lee
Scottie Scheffler
Viktor Hovland
Ludvig Aberg
Alejandro Tosti
Collin Morikawa
Joaquin Niemann
Tom Kim
Xander Schauffele
Strokes Gained: Approach
Having a strong iron game will be important this week if players want to succeed on the Albatros Course at Le Golf National.
Leaders in this category in the last 24 Rounds:
Scottie Scheffler
Xander Schauffele
Kevin Yu
Collin Morikawa
Corey Conners
Matteo Manassero
Mito Pereira
Rory McIlroy
Sepp Straka
Ludvig Aberg
Strokes Gained: Around the Green
Players will undoubtedly miss greens this week so they’ll need to rely on their short game.
Leaders in this category in the last 24 Rounds:
Hideki Matsuyama
Rory McIlroy
C.T. Pan
Nick Taylor
Collin Morikawa
Christiaan Bezuidenhout
Alex Noren
Corey Conners
Thorbjorn Olesen
Fabrizio Zanotti
Strokes Gained: Putting (Poa/ Bentgrass)
The Greens on the Albatros Course at Le Golf National are Poa / creeping bentgrass .118-197”.
Leaders in this category in the last 24 Rounds:
Wyndham Clark
Matthew Fitzpatrick
Xander Schauffele
Min Woo Lee
Jason Day
Victor Perez
David Puig
Collin Morikawa
Kristoffer Ventura
Viktor Hovland
Par 3 Scoring: 150-175 Yards (x2) / 200-225 Yards (x2)
Two of the four Par 3’s on the Albatros Course at Le Golf National range between 150-175 Yards. The other two Par 3’s range between 200-225 Yards.
Leaders in Par 3 Scoring: 150-175 Yards in the last 24 Rounds:
Collin Morikawa
Xander Schauffele
Scottie Scheffler
Corey Conners
Wyndham Clark
Kiradech Aphibarnrat
Erik Van Rooyen
C.T. Pan
Hideki Matsuyama
Matteo Manassero
Leaders in Par 3 Scoring: 200-225 Yards in the last 24 Rounds:
Byeong Hun An
Sepp Straka
Kevin Yu
Wyndham Clark
Guido Migliozzi
Fabrizio Zanotti
Xander Schauffele
Tom Kim
David Puig
Scottie Scheffler
Par 4 Scoring: 400-450 Yards (x5)
Five of the eleven Par 4’s on the Albatros Course at Le Golf National range between 400-450 Yards.
Leaders in Par 4 Scoring: 450-500 Yards in the last 24 Rounds:
Collin Morikawa
Kevin Yu
Mito Pereira
Sepp Straka
Corey Conners
Scottie Scheffler
Xander Schauffele
Alex Noren
Christiaan Bezuidenhout
Rory McIlroy
Par 5 Scoring: 550-600 Yards (x3)
All three Par 5’s on the Albatros Course at Le Golf National range between 550-600 Yards.
Leaders in Par 5 Scoring: 550-600 Yards in the last 24 Rounds:
Jason Day
Min Woo Lee
Corey Conners
Joaquin Niemann
Daniel Hillier
Zecheng Dou
Thomas Detry
Rory McIlroy
Phachara Khongwatmai
Kevin Yu
Bogey Avoidance
Patience will be key this week as players navigate the layout and capitalize on limited scoring chances. Throughout the event, players must strive to minimize any black numbers scores on their cards.
Leaders in this category in the last 24 Rounds:
Xander Schauffele
Scottie Scheffler
Rory McIlroy
Collin Morikawa
Shane Lowry
Guido Migliozzi
Nicolai Hojgaard
Hideki Matsuyama
Mito Pereira
Ludvig Aberg
Scrambling Gained
A player’s ability to recover and save par after missing the green in regulation will be crucial this week. The ability to recover from these situations and save par can make the difference between maintaining a competitive score and falling behind. High scrambling percentages contribute directly to lower scores.
Leaders in this category in the last 24 Rounds:
Hideki Matsuyama
Xander Schauffele
Rory McIlroy
Guido Migliozzi
Thorbjorn Olesen
Christiaan Bezuidenhout
Alex Noren
Scottie Scheffler
Tommy Fleetwood
Nick Taylor
The Field:
This year’s Olympics will feature a total of 60 competitors.
Here is the current basis of qualification for each entrant this week:
The top-15 world-ranked athletes are eligible for the Olympics, with a limit of four athletes from a given country. Beyond the top-15, athletes are eligible based on the world rankings, with a maximum of two eligible athletes from each country that does not already have two or more athletes among the top-15. The host country is guaranteed a spot, as is each of the five continents of the Olympics.
Previous Winners in the Field (Event):
Xander Schauffele (2020 – Tokyo)
Debutants in the Field (Event – Olympics):
Adrien Dumont De Chassart, Alejandro Tosti, Camilo Villegas, Daniel Hillier, David Puig, Erik van Rooyen, Gaganjeet Bhullar, Jason Day, Joel Girrbach, Jon Rahm, Keita Nakajima, Kevin Yu, Kris Ventura, Ludvig Aberg, Zecheng Dou, Matthew Fitzpatrick, Matthias Schmid, Matthieu Pavon, Min Woo Lee, Nick Taylor, Nicolai Hojgaard, Nicolas Echavarria, Phachara Khongwatmai, Scottie Scheffler, Shubhankar Sharma, Stephan Jaeger, Tapio Pulkkanen, Tom Kim, Victor Perez, Wyndham Clark
Here are the current favorites for this week’s event, along with a summary of their recent form and Olympic history:
Scottie Scheffler (+360): Making his Olympics debut this week, Scheffler has won six of his last eleven events and is coming off a T7 finish at The Open Championship.
Xander Schauffele (+550): The Gold Medalist from the Tokyo Olympics, Schauffele recently secured his second Major Championship victory of the season at Royal Troon.
Rory McIlroy (+850): McIlroy finished T4 at the 2020 Summer Olympics. He has won twice on the PGA Tour this season but is coming off a missed cut at The Open Championship in his most recent start.
Jon Rahm (+1000): Rahm is making his Olympics debut this week. He won his first LIV Tour event last week at LIV United Kingdom and finished T7 at The Open Championship at Royal Troon prior to that.
Collin Morikawa (+1100): Morikawa, who finished T4 at the 2020 Summer Olympics, hasn’t secured a win on the PGA Tour this season but has finished inside the top 20 in ten of his last eleven starts.
Will There Be A Hole-in-One at the Open Championship? (Yes +200 / No -310)
At the 2016 Olympics held in Rio de Janero, there were two holes in one recorded. Justin Rose of Great Britian hit one on 4th hole and Jaco van Zyl of South Africa hit one on the 8th hole.
At the 2020 Olympics held in Tokyo, there were no recorded holes in one.
Recent Horses for Courses (Open de France – Le Golf National):
Open de France
Open de France
Open de France
Open de France
Open de France
Le Golf National
Le Golf National
Le Golf National
Le Golf National
Le Golf National
Events Played
Scoring Avg. (per round)
2023
2022
2019
2018
2017
Tom Kim
1
68.75
6
–
–
–
–
Adrian Meronk
1
69.50
–
11
–
–
–
Jon Rahm
2
69.75
–
–
–
5
10
Sami Valimaki
1
70.00
–
20
–
–
–
Guido Migliozzi
3
70.50
47
WON
MC
–
–
Thomas Detry
5
70.72
35
–
8
16
MC
Thorbjorn Olesen
9
71.28
10
20
–
MC
3
Alexander Noren
11
71.67
–
–
18
WON
10
Recent Horses for Courses (Olympics):
Tokyo Olympics
Rio de Janeiro Olympics
Kasumigaseki Country Club East Course
Olympic golf course
2020
2016
Xander Schauffele
WON
–
C.T. Pan
3
30
Collin Morikawa
T4
–
Mito Pereira
T4
–
Hideki Matsuyama
T4
–
Rory McIlroy
T4
–
Joaquin Niemann
T10
–
Sepp Straka
T10
–
Emiliano Grillo
–
8
Kiradech Aphibarnrat
–
5
Recent Donkeys for Courses (Open de France – Le Golf National):
Open de France
Open de France
Open de France
Open de France
Open de France
Le Golf National
Le Golf National
Le Golf National
Le Golf National
Le Golf National
Events Played
Scoring Avg. (per round)
2023
2022
2019
2018
2017
Erik van Rooyen
2
74.50
–
–
MC
MC
–
Christiaan Bezuidenhout
1
75.50
–
–
–
MC
–
Daniel Hillier
1
71.50
MC
–
–
–
–
Matthieu Pavon
6
73.31
MC
30
57
MC
MC
Recent Donkeys for Courses (Olympics):
Tokyo Olympics
Rio de Janeiro Olympics
Kasumigaseki Country Club East Course
Olympic golf course
2020
2016
Gavin Green
T57
47
Rafael Campos
T57
–
Adrian Meronk
51
–
Ryan Fox
42
39
Previous Olympic Winners and Prices:
2020: Xander Schauffele – Tokyo
Price: 9-1
2016: Justin Rose – Rio de Janeiro
Price: 12-1
Previous Olympic Winners Incoming Form (Last 5 Starts):
2020: Xander Schauffele
T26 – The Open Championship (MAJ)
T10 – abrdn Scottish Open (DPWT)
T7 – U.S. Open (MAJ)
T11 – the Memorial Tournament (PGA)
MC – PGA Championship (MAJ)
2016: Justin Rose
T22 – PGA Championship (MAJ)
T22 – The Open Championship (MAJ)
T46 – WGC-Bridgestone Invitational (PGA)
MC – U.S. Open (MAJ)
T19 – THE PLAYERS Championship (PGA)
Picks:
Outrights:
Tommy Fleetwood (+2200) – FanDuel
Risk 0.37 to win 8.14 Units
Tom Kim (+3000) – BetMGM
Risk 0.27 to win 8.10 Units
Alex Noren (+3300) – BetMGM
Risk 0.25 to win 8.25 Units
Corey Conners (+3500) – BetMGM
Risk 0.23 to win 8.05 Units
Total Risk on Outrights: 1.12 Units
Top 10 (Including Ties):
Shane Lowry (+160) – DraftKings
Risk 1.00 to win 1.60 Units
Thomas Detry (+280) – DraftKings
Risk 0.50 to win 1.40 Units
Guido Migliozzi (+400) – DraftKings
Risk 0.50 to win 2.00 Units
Total Risk on Top 10s: 2.00 Units
As always, all of my placement bets are through BetMGM as they’re one of the only books without dead-heat rules. If you’d like to bet these placements at BetMGM, you can get up to $1500 in Bonus Bets if you don’t win if you’re a first-time user. Must Be 21+. Gambling Problem? Call or Text 1-800-GAMBLER.
Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting. Any feedback whether positive or negative is always encouraged.
There are 20 total legs in this contest with Thanksgiving day games and Christmas games being their own week. Here are the highlights below.
