We have a great show for you today! Vegas Matty from @FootballContest is back to talk about the 2024 Vegas football contests! We apologize for some of the poor audio quality in the contest segment via stream-yard. First, Kiev talks about his division preview for the NFC South! We break down each division talking about schedules, EPA, key players gained and lost. We also have some win totals and a Best Bet! Next, Matty comes on and the guys get right into the changes for the 2024 football contests. What is the guarantee? What kind of mini-games are there for each contest? Are there any other contests in Las Vegas that we should pay attention to? Then, the guys talk about some of the promotions that Vegas Matty has for the new season. Finally, Kiev talks some UFC 302 with a few Free Plays for the big event this Saturday. Should you have any questions for the podcast, or games that you want us to cap during our shows, please message us at Info@TheOddsBreakers.com. Have a wonderful week!
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Last week, Davis Riley secured his first individual victory on the PGA TOUR by winning the Charles Schwab Challenge. The 27-year-old previously tasted success on the TOUR when he and Nick Hardy triumphed in the Zurich Classic team event in New Orleans last year.
Keegan Bradley finished as the runner-up at the Charles Schwab Challenge, marking his sixth second-place finish of the season. Although we didn’t hit an outright winner last week, we still profited from our placements: Sepp Straka T20 (+175), Lee Hodges T40 (+120), and Peter Malnati T40 (+250).
Before we’ve even teed off, the storylines have already started…
We begin this week with the heartbreaking news of Grayson Murray’s passing on Saturday. Murray had previously struggled with mental health issues. He started the 2024 season with a dramatic playoff victory at the Sony Open in Hawaii, making a clutch up-and-down for birdie on the 72nd hole to force a playoff, and then sinking a 40-foot birdie putt on the first extra hole to defeat Byeong Hun An and Keegan Bradley. This victory propelled him to a career-high 46th in the Official World Golf Ranking. On Sunday, players honored Murray by wearing red and black ribbons, the colors he wore to represent his hometown Carolina Hurricanes.
Rory McIlroy is aiming for his third RBC Canadian Open victory. He previously won this event in 2019 at Hamilton Golf & Country Club and in 2022 at St. George’s Golf & Country Club. Last season, he finished T9 at Oakdale Golf & Country Club. McIlroy enters this week’s tournament after winning two of his last three starts on the PGA Tour, most recently finishing T12 at the PGA Championship.
Last season, Nick Taylor made history by becoming the first Canadian since 1954 to win the RBC Canadian Open. He secured victory with a spectacular 72-foot eagle putt on the fourth playoff hole against Tommy Fleetwood. Taylor’s ecstatic celebration included tossing his putter into the air and jumping into his caddie’s arms, while fellow Canadian golfers Mike Weir, Corey Conners, and Adam Hadwin rushed to congratulate him on the green. To commemorate this historic achievement, Golf Canada and RBC have reimagined the tournament logo for the 2024 edition, featuring a silhouette of Taylor’s iconic putter toss. Taylor has already claimed one victory this season at the WM Phoenix Open, also in a playoff, where he defeated Charley Hoffman.
The Canadian Open, now known as the RBC Canadian Open, was founded in 1904 and is co-organized by Golf Canada (formerly the Royal Canadian Golf Association) and the PGA Tour. It has been held annually since its inception, except during World War I, World War II, and the COVID-19 pandemic. It is the third oldest continuously running tournament on the tour, following The Open Championship and the U.S. Open. From 1994 to 2005, it was known as the Bell Canadian Open. RBC became the title sponsor in 2008 and has retained the sponsorship since.
Until 2023, no Canadian citizen had won the Canadian Open since Pat Fletcher in 1954, and no player born in Canada had won since 1914. In 2023, Nick Taylor ended the 69-year drought for Canadian players, securing victory in a dramatic finish at Oakdale Golf & Country Club.
Hamilton Golf & Country Club has hosted the RBC Canadian Open six times (1919, 1930, 2003, 2006, 2012, and 2019). The club features three nine-hole courses: the East Nine, the South Nine, and the West Nine. For this week’s event, the West Course will serve as Holes 1-9, and the South Course will serve as Holes 10-18.
Founded on October 24, 1894, Hamilton Golf Club is one of the ten founding clubs of the Royal Canadian Golf Association. The initial course was a 12-hole links-style layout. In 1896, the club relocated to Paradise Farm on Aberdeen Avenue, now the site of Chedoke Civic Golf Course, and hired its first greenskeeper in 1901. Twenty years later, the club purchased 200 acres of farmland called “The Grange” in Ancaster for $40,000 and commissioned British designer Harry Colt to create a new course. This course opened in 1916 and hosted its first Canadian Open in 1919. In 1979, Canadian architect Robbie Robinson designed nine new holes, creating the East Nine.
Starting in the fall of 2019, Martin Ebert of the UK-based design firm Mackenzie & Ebert, International Golf Course Architects, led a historic renovation of the club’s 27 holes. The $11.5 million restoration aimed to revive many of the classic features initially designed by Colt and ensure continuity with the East course crafted by Robinson. Completed in 2021, the renovation included a complete rebuild of all 27 greens and extensive bunker adjustments, earning the “Best New Restoration” award from Golf Digest in 2022. The West and South courses reopened in 2021, with the final nine holes on the East course opening in the summer of 2022.
Hole
Yards (2019)
Yards (2024)
Par
Hole
Yards (2019)
Yards (2024)
Par
1
417
411
4
10
392
386
4
2
442
457
4
11
481
502
4
3
408
401
4
12
388
380
4
4
542
542
5
13
217
209
3
5
337
346
4
14
450
474
4
6
224
249
3
15
423
420
4
7
412
447
4
16
188
180
3
8
210
207
3
17
550
580
5
9
440
436
4
18
446
457
4
OUT
3,432
3,496
35
IN
3,535
3,588
70
TOTAL
6,967
7,084
Most Tournament Wins:
4, Leo Diegel (1924, 1925, 1928, 1929)
72-Hole Record (Event – RBC Canadian Open):
258, Rory McIlroy (Hamilton Golf & Country Club, 2019)
72-Hole Record (Course – Hamilton Golf & Country Club):
258, Rory McIlroy (2019)
18-Hole Record (Event – RBC Canadian Open):
60, Carl Pettersson (3rd round, 2010 at St. George’s G&CC), Justin Rose (4th round, 2022 at St. George’s G&CC), Brandt Snedeker (2nd round, 2019 at Hamilton Golf & Country Club)
18-Hole Record (Course – Hamilton Golf & Country Club):
60, Brandt Snedeker (2nd Round, 2019)
Course Guide/ Scorecard:
Originally crafted by Harry S. Colt in 1916, Hamilton Golf & Country Club features a Par 70 layout, comprising four Par 3s, twelve Par 4s, and two Par 5s.
In terms of length, Hamilton Golf & Country Club is one of the shorter courses on the Tour measuring 7,084 yards.It ranks 17th out of 44 courses in length. The fairways are on the narrower side, ranking 10th of 44, with the average fairway width being 30.0 yards. The average green size is roughly 6,000 square feet which is on the smaller side when compared to the other courses on the PGA Tour. Bunkers aren’t a factor here as there are only 72 which ranks as the 21st fewest of 44 courses.
Hamilton Golf & Country Club demands accuracy but also rewards distance when paired with hitting fairways. It’s a ball-striker’s course, characterized by numerous doglegs and holes that limit opportunities for long hitters to use their drivers. Expect to see many players opting for layups and using irons off the tee.
The four Par 3’s range between 180 yards and 249 yards.In terms of stats, two of the four Par 3’s range between 200-225 yards. In the last edition of this event (2019), all of the Par 3’s had a scoring average over par except for No. 16.
No. 6, 249 Yards, Par 3: This is the first of four very strong par-3s and not much of a breather. It was the second most difficult hole at the 2019 RBC Canadian Open with a four-day scoring average of 3.189. A total of 25 yards have been added making it the longest of the par-3s. Surrounded by woods, the hole plays entirely across a picturesque valley to a slightly raised putting surface. Right of the green slopes severely down into the woods and lost-ball territory. Although larger than it used to be, the green is protected by a couple of serious bunkers.
No. 8, 207 Yards, Par 3: The secluded tee shot can make club selection perplexing as it’s difficult to predict the impact of the wind. The ball crosses a valley to a wide-open green that has been lowered by ten feet to make it more receptive to shots. The green has more undulation than most and slopes slightly from back to front with bunkers to the right and left.
No. 13, 209 Yards, Par 3: Known as the ‘Rink Hole’, No. 13 will be surrounded by towering observation areas and suites and rowdy fans. From an elevated tee, players hit over a wide valley to an undulating and angled green. A false front makes this hole play to its true yardage. There’s one deceptive bunker well short of the green on the right and another near the front left corner of the green. Coming up short on your tee ball could leave a blind 50-yard uphill second shot.
No. 16, 180 Yards, Par 3: The shortest of the par-3s runs uphill to yet another green well-protected by severely deep bunkers on the left and one in the approach to the right which should not come into play for the Canadian Open competitor. Pin positions will be tough to get close to when they are tight to the left. Choosing the right club is the key here.
There are twelve Par 4’s at Hamilton Golf & Country Club with the majority (five) of those holes ranging between 400 and 450 yards. No. 5 is the shortest Par 4 listed at 346 yards with the longest being No. 11, playing 502 yards. In terms of scoring average, the toughest Par 4 on the course in 2019 was No. 18 (+0.256).
No. 5, 346 Yards, Par 4: A true risk-reward hole, No. 5 gives the gambler an opportunity to hit the driver or perhaps a 3-wood and go for the green. It’s an uphill, slight dogleg right with the green on a small plateau. Playing aggressively brings the deep bunkers and steeply sloping green surrounds into play while laying up leaves a ball above or below your stance on this narrow, mounded fairway. The perched green offers many subtle breaks, and the roll-off collars run aggressively away from the green around the majority of the green. The green site offers one of the best views at Hamilton.
No. 11, 502 Yards, Par 4: This tough dogleg left par-4 is 21 yards longer than it was in 2019 and features an elevated tee to the fairway 45 feet below. Large trees at the corner of the dogleg may prevent all but the longest hitters from taking the shortcut. Two new bunkers at the corner of the dogleg on the right side make for a good target from the tee with the first one being 320 yards from the tee. The fairway then slopes significantly uphill to an elevated green that falls from back to front with a monster bunker to the right. Another hole you don’t want to be short on, or the ball will roll back down the slope.
No. 18, 457 Yards, Par 4: The toughest hole during the 2019 RBC Canadian Open with a four-day scoring average of 4.258. This classic finale demands precise positioning off this elevated tee. With an additional 11 yards added, Ancaster Creek snakes across the fairway 295 yards out, so a three-wood or hybrid is the prudent play for most as the fairway slopes to the creek. The approach shot climbs 175-200 yards uphill—often from an uneven lie—to a green set in a giant amphitheater below the beautiful clubhouse with bunkers on each side that act as sentinels. A tough final putt any day, but with thousands of cheering fans watching on, anything could happen when the tournament is on the line. One of golf’s greatest finishing holes!
There are only two Par 5’s at Hamilton Golf & Country Club, No. 4 & No. 17.They both played under par in 2019, despite being some of the longer par 5’s on Tour. The easiest hole on the course in 2019 was No. 17 with a scoring average of 4.436.
No. 4, 542 Yards, Par 5: The straightforward par-5 can be reached in two, but players will have to avoid the trees that flank both sides, a new series of fairway bunkers down the right side of the fairway and a deep swale which has been cut in towards the fairway on the left. If errant off the tee, players will have to negotiate the cross-bunker 90 yards from this well-bunkered, sloping green, which falls off to the right. It played as the second easiest hole at the 2019 RBC Canadian Open with a four-day scoring average of 4.650 strokes.
No. 17, 580 Yards, Par 5: Even though it is now 30 yards longer, this par-5 will provide plenty of birdie opportunities and even eagles to players who have an extra gear off the tee. In 2019 it played as the easiest hole on the course with a four-day scoring average of 4.449. It’s a straightforward hole from an elevated tee with trees guarding both sides of the fairway. There are now a series of three bunkers in a staggered pattern to the left and right of the first landing area. From the second landing area to the green, six bunkers, including one in the middle of the approach area, need to be navigated. There is an entirely new green site that has been pushed back and to the left which will provide real challenge as it slopes to the rear so it will be easy to overshoot, especially to the rear pin positions.
Featured/ Signature Hole(s): 13, 18
For a hole-by-hole overview of the course, you can click the following link.
Key Statistics:
Statistics
PGA Tour Average
Hamilton Golf & Country Club
Driving Distance (Yards)
283.52
283.75
Driving Accuracy
62%
55%
GIR Percentage
66%
63%
Avg GIR Prox to Hole (Feet)
29.17
30.00
Scrambling Percentage
58%
62%
Avg 3 Putts / Round
0.55
0.50
Strokes Gained: Off the Tee
Success this week will hinge on players’ ability to position themselves effectively off the tee.
Leaders in this category in the last 24 Rounds:
Kevin Dougherty
Cameron Champ
Rory McIlroy
Keith Mitchell
Kevin Yu
Rico Hoey
Jhonattan Vegas
Maverick McNealy
Sahith Theegala
Shane Lowry
Strokes Gained: Approach
Having a strong iron game will be important this week if players want to succeed at Hamilton Golf & Country Club.
Leaders in this category in the last 24 Rounds:
Corey Conners
Kelly Kraft
Akshay Bhatia
Adam Svensson
Aaron Rai
Ryan Moore
Shane Lowry
Rory McIlroy
Ben Martin
Keith Mitchell
Driving Accuracy
The fairways at Hamilton Golf & Country Club are on the narrower side, with the average fairway width being 30.0 yards.
Leaders in this category this season:
Shane Lowry
Tommy Fleetwood
Aaron Rai
Tom Kim
Daniel Berger
Ryan Moore
Zach Johnson
Corey Conners
Rory McIlroy
Doug Ghim
Strokes Gained: Putting (Bentgrass)
The green complexes at Hamilton Golf & Country Club are V8 creeping bentgrass.
Leaders in this category in the last 24 Rounds:
Maverick McNealy
Dylan Wu
Beau Hossler
Sahith Theegala
Sam Burns
Harry Hall
Aaron Baddeley
Thorbjorn Olesen
Martin Laird
Victor Perez
David Skinns
Par 3 Scoring: 200-225 Yards (x2)
Two of the four Par 3’s at Hamilton Golf & Country Club range between 200-225 Yards.
Leaders in this category in the last 24 Rounds:
Keith Mitchell
Shane Lowry
Stewart Cink
Victor Perez
Rory McIlroy
Tom Kim
Troy Merritt
K.H. Lee
Zac Blair
Justin Lower
Par 4 Scoring: 400-450 Yards (x5)
Five of the twelve Par 4’s at Hamilton Golf & Country Club range between 400-450 Yards.
Leaders in Par 4 Scoring 400-450 Yards in the last 24 Rounds:
Beau Hossler
Rory McIlroy
S.H. Kim
Doug Ghim
Justin Lower
Adam Hadwin
Garrick Higgo
Sam Ryder
Kevin Yu
Sam Burns
Birdies or Better Gained
The last time the RBC Canadian Open was hosted at Hamilton Golf & Country Club, the winning score was -22. While the recent renovation has added rough 100 yards to the course, I expect we’ll see the winning score around -20.To have a chance at winning this event, players are going to need to take advantage of every scoring opportunity.
Leaders in this category in the last 24 Rounds:
Rory McIlroy
Eric Cole
Tom Kim
Tommy Fleetwood
Shane Lowry
Adam Scott
Beau Hossler
Sahith Theegala
Luke List
Garrick Higgo
Proximity Gained: 125-150 & 200+ Yards
Below is the approach shot distribution chart from 2019 (via DataGolf). Most approach shots come from the 125-150 & 200+ yard range at a volume much higher than the PGA Tour average.
Leaders in Proximity Gained: 125-150 Yards in the last 24 Rounds:
Chesson Hadley
C.T. Pan
Rafael Campos
Adam Svensson
Charley Hoffman
Gary Woodland
Corey Conners
Ryan Moore
Bud Cauley
Robby Shelton
Leaders in Proximity Gained: 200+ Yards in the last 24 Rounds:
Eric Cole
Rory McIlroy
Sahith Theegala
Charley Hoffman
Harrison Endycott
Michael Kim
Matti Schmid
Luke List
Matt NeSmith
Cameron Champ
Comparable Courses and Event History
Prior experience in the RBC Canadian Open has proven to be advantageous. We’ve seen several players win this event in consecutive years including Rory McIlroy (2022 & 2019), Jhonattan Vegas (2017 & 2016), and Jim Furyk (2007 & 2006). While the RBC Candian Open rotates courses, the host venues are fairly similar in their design.
The Field:
This year’s RBC Canadian Open will feature a total of 156 competitors.
Previous Winners in the Field (Event):
Nick Taylor (’23), Rory McIlroy (’22, ’19), Jhonattan Vegas (’17, ’16), Brandt Snedeker (’13), Chez Reavie (’08)
Debutants in the Field (Event):
Adrien Dumont de Chassart, Alejandro Tosti, Alistair Docherty, Ashton McCulloch, Beau Hossler, Benjamin Griffin, Cam Kellett, Carl Yuan, Chan Kim, Chandler Phillips, Davis Riley, Davis Thompson, Erik Barnes, Hayden Springer, Jacob Bridgeman, Jake Lane, Joe Highsmith, Jorge Campillo, Justin Matthews, Justin Suh, Kevin Dougherty, Kevin Yu, KyoungHoon Lee, Mac Meissner, Marc-Olivier Plasse, Matthew NeSmith, Max Greyserman, Nicolas Echavarria, Parker Coody, Patrick Fishburn, Pierceson Coody, Rafael Campos, Raul Pereda, Rico Hoey, Robert MacIntyre, Ryan Fox, Ryan McCormick, Ryo Hisatsune, Sam Choi, Sami Valimaki, Samuel Stevens, Thorbjorn Olesen, Tom Kim, Tom Whitney, Trace Crowe, Victor Perez, Wil Bateman, Wilson Furr
To see the full field for this event and how they qualified, you can click the following link.
The Odds:
Here are the current favorites for this week’s event, along with a summary of their recent form and course history:
Rory McIlroy (+360): Rory finished T12 at the PGA Championship a few weeks ago. Prior to that, he won back-to-back events, including the Wells Fargo Championship and Zurich Classic of New Orleans. This will be his fourth appearance at the RBC Canadian Open. He won this event in 2019 and 2022, and last year he finished T9 when the tournament was held at Oakdale Golf & Country Club.
Tommy Fleetwood (+1600): Fleetwood has an impressive history at this event, finishing T6 in 2018 and losing in a playoff last year. He enters this week in good form, with three top-20 finishes in his last five events. In his most recent start, he finished T26 at the PGA Championship.
Sahith Theegala (+1800): Theegala will be making his third appearance at the RBC Canadian Open. He finished T53 in his tournament debut in 2022 and T38 in 2023. He’s been close to victory a few times this season, finishing runner-up at both The Sentry and RBC Heritage. In his most recent start, he finished T12 at the PGA Championship.
Corey Conners (+2000): Conners has finished inside the top 20 in two of his last three starts. In his most recent outing, he finished T26 at the PGA Championship. This will be his ninth appearance at the RBC Canadian Open. He’s performed well recently at this event, finishing 6th in 2022 and T20 in 2023.
Shane Lowry (+2200): Lowry won the Zurich Classic of New Orleans last month, paired with Rory McIlroy. Following that victory, he finished T47 at the Wells Fargo Championship and T6 at the PGA Championship. This will be Lowry’s sixth appearance at the RBC Canadian Open. He finished T2 the last time the event was held at Hamilton Golf & Country Club.
To see the most up-to-date odds, you can click the following link.
In 2019, the last time Hamilton Golf & Country Club hosted the RBC Canadian Open, the winning score was -22.
To place a bet at Superbook on the Projected Final Score of the Winner, you can click the following link.
Playoff Props:
Will There Be A Playoff? (Yes +330 / No -450)
Since 2008, the RBC Canadian Open has ended in a playoff four times (2023, 2017, 2011, and 2009).
Hamilton Golf & Country Club has hosted the RBC Canadian Open six times before with the tournament ending in a playoff twice (2003 & 1930). In 2003, Bob Tway defeated Brad Faxon and in 1930, Tommy Armour defeated Leo Diegel.
To place a bet at DraftKings on the Playoff Prop, you can click the following link.
Hole-in-One:
Will There Be A Hole-in-One? (Yes +105 / No -150)
In 2019, the last time Hamilton Golf & Country Club hosted the RBC Canadian Open there were no holes-in-ones.
To place a bet at DraftKings on the Hole-in-One Prop, you can click the following link.
Facts and Figures:
Recent Horses for Courses (Event – RBC Canadian Open):
RBC Canadian Open
RBC Canadian Open
RBC Canadian Open
RBC Canadian Open
RBC Canadian Open
Oakdale Golf & Country Club
St. George’s Golf & Country Club
Hamilton Golf & Country Club
Glen Abbey Golf Club
Glen Abbey Golf Club
EventsPlayed
Scoring Avg.(per round)
2023
2022
2019
2018
2017
Rory McIlroy
3
66.25
T9
WON
WON
–
–
Tommy Fleetwood
2
67.88
2
–
–
6
–
Aaron Rai
2
68.00
T3
T13
–
–
–
Shane Lowry
5
68.67
T43
T10
T2
T12
MC
C.T. Pan
2
68.13
T3
–
–
–
T14
Doug Ghim
2
68.75
T12
T18
–
–
–
Horses for Courses (Course – 2019 & 2012 RBC Canadian Open – Hamilton Golf & Country Club):
RBC Canadian Open
RBC Canadian Open
Hamilton Golf & Country Club
Hamilton Golf & Country Club
2019
2012
Brandt Snedeker
T4
T34
Matt Kuchar
T4
T34
Ryan Palmer
35
19
Recent Donkeys for Courses (Event – RBC Canadian Open):
RBC Canadian Open
RBC Canadian Open
RBC Canadian Open
RBC Canadian Open
RBC Canadian Open
Oakdale Golf & Country Club
St. George’s Golf & Country Club
Hamilton Golf & Country Club
Glen Abbey Golf Club
Glen Abbey Golf Club
EventsPlayed
Scoring Avg.(per round)
2023
2022
2019
2018
2017
Myles Creighton
2
74.75
MC
MC
–
–
–
David Lipsky
2
73.00
MC
MC
–
–
–
Wesley Bryan
3
72.80
MC
MC
–
DQ
–
Ryan Brehm
2
72.75
MC
–
–
–
MC
Jared Du Toit
3
72.67
–
MC
–
MC
MC
Michael Gligic
5
72.60
MC
–
MC
MC
–
Cameron Champ
3
71.50
MC
MC
–
MC
–
Martin Laird
9
70.18
MC
MC
T50
MC
–
Camilo Villegas
15
70.51
MC
MC
–
–
T54
J.J. Spaun
5
70.64
–
MC
T44
MC
MC
Bill Haas
10
70.69
WD
MC
MC
MC
–
Mike Weir
19
70.78
T52
MC
MC
MC
MC
David Hearn
19
71.05
MC
MC
MC
T61
MC
Martin Trainer
3
72.25
T72
MC
MC
–
–
Brice Garnett
5
72.50
T68
MC
MC
–
–
Donkeys for Courses (Course – 2019& 2012 RBC Canadian Open – Hamilton Golf & Country Club):
RBC Canadian Open
RBC Canadian Open
Hamilton Golf & Country Club
Hamilton Golf & Country Club
2019
2012
Mike Weir
MC
MC
David Hearn
T71
MC
Michael Gligic
MC
MC
Previous Winners Scores, Prices, and Strokes Gained (Rank at Tournament):
2023: Nick Taylor (-17) – Oakdale Golf & Country Club
Price:66-1
SG: Off the Tee
SG: Tee to Green
SG: Approach
SG: Around the Green
SG: Putting
Nick Taylor
32nd
3rd
5th
15th
10th
2022: Rory McIlroy (-19) – St. George’s Golf & Country Club
Price: 10-1
SG: Off the Tee
SG: Tee to Green
SG: Approach
SG: Around the Green
SG: Putting
Rory McIlroy
6th
1st
5th
4th
7th
2019: Rory McIlroy (-22) – Hamilton Golf & Country Club
Price: 10-1
SG: Off the Tee
SG: Tee to Green
SG: Approach
SG: Around the Green
SG: Putting
Rory McIlroy
1st
1st
5th
6th
6th
Previous Winners Incoming Form (Last 5 Starts):
2023: Nick Taylor
MC – Charles Schwab Challenge (PGA)
MC – PGA Championship (MAJ)
2 – Zurich Classic of New Orleans (PGA)
T41 – RBC Heritage (PGA)
T15 – Valero Texas Open (PGA)
2022: Rory McIlroy
T18 – the memorial Tournament (PGA)
8 – PGA Championship (MAJ)
5 – Wells Fargo Championship (PGA)
2 – The Masters (MAJ)
MC – Valero Texas Open (PGA)
2019: Rory McIlroy
MC – the memorial Tournament (PGA)
T8 – PGA Championship (MAJ)
T8 – Wells Fargo Championship (PGA)
T21 – The Masters (MAJ)
T9 – WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play (PGA)
Previous Winners Finishes at Event:
2023: Nick Taylor
2022
2019
2018
2017
2016
2015
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
St. George’s Golf & CC
Hamilton Golf & CC
Glen Abbey GC
Glen Abbey GC
Glen Abbey GC
Glen Abbey GC
Hamilton Golf & CC
Shaughnessy Golf & CC
St. George’s Golf & CC
Glen Abbey GC
Glen Abbey GC
Nick Taylor
T28
T27
T71
MC
MC
T56
MC
MC
MC
MC
T53
2022: Rory McIlroy
2019
Hamilton Golf & Country Club
Corey Conners
WON
2019: Rory McIlroy
Tournament Debut
Picks (Outrights):
Corey Conners (+2200) – BetMGM
Risk 0.37 to win 8.14 Units
Alex Noren (+2500) – BetMGM
Risk 0.32 to win 8.00 Units
Aaron Rai (+4000) – BetMGM
Risk 0.20 to win 8.00 Units
Davis Thompson (+5500) – BetMGM
Risk 0.15 to win 8.25 Units
Mac Meissner (+9000) – BetMGM
Risk 0.09 to win 8.10 Units
Hayden Buckley (+25000) – BetMGM
Risk 0.04 to win 10.00 Units
Total Risk on Outrights: 1.17 Units
Picks (Top 20):
Maverick McNealy (+150) – BetMGM
Risk 1.00 to win 1.50 Units
Keith Mitchell (+160) – BetMGM
Risk 1.00 to win 1.60 Units
Total Risk on Top 20s: 2.00 Units
Picks (Top 40):
Daniel Berger (+110) – BetMGM
Risk 1.00 to win 1.10 Units
Patton Kizzire (+160) – BetMGM
Risk 1.00 to win 1.60 Units
Total Risk on Top 40s: 2.00 Units
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What’s Memorial weekend without baseball? Last night, the Cardinals beat the Cubs in the bottom of the ninth due to poor pitching and poor fielding. The weather forecast tonight calls for 70 degrees with a chance of rain. The wind is blowing out tonight at 10MPH. Javier Assad takes the mound for the Cubs. He is having a solid year at a 1.7 ERA and a 3.6 FIP. Sunny Gray is the man for the Cardinals who is also having a good year with a 2.87 ERA and a 2.96 FIP. As bad as Chicago’s bullpen is, they still rank 16th in FIP to the Cardinals ranking 9th. The Cubs batting has fallen back to the pack due to injuries, but I expect some positive regression now that Dansby Swanson and Nico Hoerner are back in the lineup. The Cardinals only rank 20th in wRC+ themselves this year. I think that the Cubs fight today. They need to pick themselves out of a slump. It’s a good day to back the Cubbies and I will take the + money.
NFC NORTH: Last year, the NFC north was supposed to be one of the worst divisions in football. My oh my was that assessment incorrect as this division pumped out two playoff teams in the Green Bay Packers and the Detroit Lions. Even the Bears finished out with seven wins. The Vikings had some bad luck losing Kirk Cousins mid-season and still were able to put up seven. This year, the Packers and the Lions are both favored to repeat into the playoffs. Now, most analysts look at this division as quite strong. Every team looks like they had improved minus maybe the Vikings. The NFC North plays the AFC South which is ok, but they also play the NFC West which is just medium this year due to questions from the Cardinals and the Seahawks. Let’s see how this division shapes up.
Schedule: MediumHard – At large games vs Tampa Bay, @Dallas, vs Buffalo.
Schedule last year: MediumHard
Key Losses: G Jonah Jackson, S CJ Gardner-Johnson, WR Josh Reynolds, DT Benito Jones, S Will Harris, CB Cam Sutton, G Halapoulivaati Vaitai
Key additions: DT DJ Reeder, CB Amik Robertson, DE Marcus Davenport, G Kevin Zietler
Who they drafted: CB Terrion Arnold, CB Ennis Rakestraw, T Giovanni Manu, S iIone Vaki
Summary: The Lions were ferocious last year during a strong season for the NFC. One has to be think that they are still kicking themselves for that improbably playoff choke when up by double digits in the 2nd half in San Francisco. The Lions rush defense took a huge step forward last year ranking 4th in rush EPA, but their pass defense stayed bad ranking 25th in pass EPA. We could see that the Lions are trying to fix that with the corners that they had just drafted. The Lions offense was great for most of the year ranking 8th in EPA per play. They lost what they could afford to lose, but had a very good draft getting two top cornerbacks and my top rated safety. There was no big free agent splash, but the Lions didn’t lose a big star either. Marcus Davenport should be a good addition across from Aidan Hutchinson. The Lions are ready to win right now, and they should start the season guns a blaze-in.
MY Season Number: 11.08
Action: No Play
Detroit Lions Power Rating: 5.25
2. Green Bay Packers –
Vegas Win Total – 10.5 juiced to the under -155
2023 Wins: 9
Pythagorean Wins: 9.44
Schedule: Medium Easy – At large games vs Philadelphia (Neutral), vs Miami, vs New Orleans
Schedule Last year:Easy
Key Losses: RB Aaron Jones, G Jon Runyan, S Darnell Savage, T Yoshi Nijman, S Jonathan Owens
Key Additions: S Xavier McKinney, RB Josh Jacobs, K Greg Joseph
Who they drafted: T Jordan Morgan, LB Edgerrin Cooper, S Javon Bullard, RB Marshawn Lloyd, LB Ty’Ron Hopper and a bunch of dudes.
Summary: The Packers were once again saved by coaching as this team went on a tear at the end of the season to make the playoffs. In saying that, the Packers remained mostly healthy as the only real injuries were to a few wide receivers and RB Aaron Jones for a spell. I think that coaching could play a huge part in this team’s success for 2024, but I am not buying the hype on this team. The Packers ranked 10th in rush EPA and 4th in Pass EPA which was impressive and a testament to a good offense, but I do not like the swap of Aaron Jones for Josh Jacobs. Jones is so much more versatile, and Jacobs is basically just a downhill non-pass catching running back. The defense last year was the issue ranking in the 20s in both pass and rush EPA categories. Maybe the packers strike gold in this draft, but I am concerned for the weak linebacking crew and the aging edge rushing positions. The schedule at least worked out quite well for the pack as all of their at large games turned out either neutral or at home. I will look at the under if it remains 10.5, but I will wait to try and find less juice.
My season number: 9.22 wins
Action: Play the under but wait.
Green Bay’s power rating: – 3.25
3. Chicago Bears –
Vegas Win Total 8.5 juiced to over -165
2023 Wins: 7
Pythagorean Wins: 7.79
Schedule: Easy – At large games vs Carolina, @Washington, vs New England
Schedule Last year: Hard
Key Losses: WR Darnell Mooney, Edge Yannick Ngakoue, DT Justin Jones, G Cody Whitehair, G Dan Feeney, S Eddie Jackson, RB D’Onta Foremanm,
Key Additions: OC Shane Waldron, Edge Montez Sweat 1/2 of last year, RB D’Andre Swift, FS Kevin Byard, TE Gerald Everett, S Jonathan Owens, G Coleman Shelton
Who they drafted: QB Caleb Williams, WR Rome Odunze, OT Kiran Amegadjie, P Tory Taylor, Edge Austin Booker
Summary: Huge changes for Da Bears this season. After all of these years, the Bears have their best chance at finally having a good franchise quarterback with their stolen draft pick courtesy of the Panthers in Caleb Williams. Chicago also added to their Arsenals in drafting the second best wide receiver in the draft in Rome Odunze. Last year, this Bears team ranked decent in Rush EPA at 9th, but we also have to assume that many of those yards were courtesy of Justin Fields and his great legs. What came with those legs was a poor throwing ability ranking 24th in drop-back EPA. I was surprised to see it even that high. When Fields was in position to win a big game, he would hand the ball to the other team. Bear fans hope that Williams has some of the scrambling ability that Caleb has shown at USC for some continuity into the 2024 season. The Bears defense took a few steps forward from last year ranking 7th in Rush EPA and 19th in pass EPA. They did shed some talent, but they also drafted some dudes that might be able to fill in. The Justin Jones loss could hurt the worst as he did a good job clogging up the middle. The Bears did upgrade their secondary but bringing in safeties Kevin Byard and Jonathan Owens. I am still concerned with the offensive line as the Bears somewhat ignored it in the draft, but let’s hope the top guys can stay healthy. I am also not sure that Eberflus is a good NFL coach. Lots to prove for Da Bears this year and my season win total is 9.4 mainly based on an easy schedule.
My season number: 9.4 wins
Action – wait
Chicago Bears Power rating: 0
4. Minnesota Vikings –
Vegas Win Total: 6.5 juiced to the over -145
2023 Wins: 7
Pythagorean Wins: 8.68
Schedule: Medium Hard – At large games @ NY Giants, vs NY Jets*, vs Atlanta
Schedule Last year: Medium Hard
Key Losses: QB Kirk Cousins, Edge Danielle Hunter, DE DJ Wonnum, ILB Jordan Hicks, DE Marcus Davenport, DE Dean Lowry, WR KJ Osborne, G Austin Schottman, QB Joshua Dobbs, RB Alexander Mattison, G Dalton Risner, RB Cam Akers and a bunch of scrubs.
Key Additions: DE Jonathan Greenard, LB Blake Cashman, Edge Andrew Van Ginkle, QB Sam Darnold, RB Aaron Jones, CB Shaquill Griffin, DT Jerry Tillery, G Dan Feeney.
Who they drafted: QB JJ McCarthy, Edge Dallas Turner, and a bunch of prayers.
Summary: The Vikings had 13 wins in 2022 with a Pythagorean win total of 8.36. This year they had 7 wins with a Pythag of 8.68. This is so fun to see. Minnesota massively overachieved in 2022, and yet greatly underachieved in 2023. For 2024, the turnover on this team is immense from a defensive perspective. Shedding three good defensive ends and their best LB and edge rusher is rough for starters. This team at least did sign some free agents to cover a lot of this. The Vikings clearly had a lot of bad injury luck with Kirk Cousins going out, but that doesn’t really matter anymore does it? Justin Jefferson missed some games as well last year, and he definitely wasn’t the same with no decent quarterback. Even with the good signing of Aaron Jones, this team is thin at Running back with Ty Chandler as the second option. The Vikings were very average at defense last year, so it will be interesting to see if it can hold up after losing Danielle Hunter and DJ Wonnum. The JJ McCarthy pick wasn’t my favorite quarterback of the bunch. I think that he was over-drafted, but here we are looking at him to quickly take over after Sam Darnold messes up. If Justin Jefferson stays, that certainly helps things, but I think the first year might be rough for JJ. Two big things about the Vikings schedule. For one, they get a huge rest advantage at net positive +12 days rest. The bad thing is that they lose a home game vs the Jets in London. I think that this team could muster up 7 wins this year.
My season number: 7.09
Action– None
Vikings Power Rating: -2
Best Bet – Lions to win the NFC North +150 – .5 stars
Tonight in the NHL, we’re set for a thrilling Game 1 showdown in the Western Conference Finals between the Dallas Stars and the Edmonton Oilers. Let’s dive into this highly anticipated matchup, exploring the excitement it promises and highlighting some intriguing player props that deserve your attention.
Series Matchup:
Team
Series Price
Dallas Stars
-125
Edmonton Oilers
+105
The Dallas Stars and Edmonton Oilers are set to face off for the ninth time in the Stanley Cup Playoffs as they meet in the Western Conference Final. Their last postseason encounter was in the 2003 conference quarterfinals, where Dallas triumphed over Edmonton in six games.
Regular Season Matchups:
During the regular season, the Stars won two of the three matchups against the Oilers.
November 2nd, 2023: Dallas Stars 4 @ Edmonton Oilers 3
April 3rd, 2024: Edmonton Oilers 0 @ Dallas Stars 5
EDM: C. Pickard (.844 SV%)
DAL: J. Oettinger (1.000 SV%)
Path to the Western Conference Finals:
The Edmonton Oilers defeated the Los Angeles Kings 4-1 in the first round and the Vancouver Canucks 4-3 in the second round.
The Dallas Stars defeated the Vegas Golden Knights 4-3 in the first round and the Colorado Avalanche 4-2 in the second round.
Game 1 Matchup:
Edmonton Oilers @ Dallas Stars
Time: 8:30 PM ET
Series: Edmonton Oilers 0 – Dallas Stars 0
Team
Opening ML
Current ML
Spread
Total
Edmonton Oilers
+110
+110
+1.5 (-238)
o6.0 (-112)
Dallas Stars
-130
-130
-1.5 (+195)
u6.0 (-108)
Tonight’s matchup and the series overall will hinge on several key factors.
Special Teams:
Edmonton boasts the best special teams in the Stanley Cup Playoffs, leading the NHL in both power play efficiency (37.5 percent) and penalty kill success (91.4 percent). In contrast, Dallas, the least penalized team among the four remaining in the playoffs, has struggled with their penalty kill, allowing eight power-play goals on 26 opportunities (69.2 percent). However, Dallas ranks 4th in power play percentage this postseason, converting at a rate of 29.0 percent. The Stars must maintain their discipline to avoid giving the Oilers power play opportunities. Notably, during their three regular-season meetings, Edmonton managed only one power-play goal on 12 attempts against Dallas.
Edmonton’s Offensive Leaders:
Leon Draisaitl, Connor McDavid, and Evan Bouchard have been fantastic for the Oilers this postseason. Draisaitl leads the playoffs with 24 points (eight goals, 16 assists); McDavid is next with 21 points (two goals, 19 assists). Bouchard isn’t too far behind either of them with 20 points (five goals, 15 assists). Ryan Nugent-Hopkins and Zach Hyman are also producing at over a point per game, though the majority of their points have come on the power play. For the Oilers to advance to the Stanley Cup Finals, they’ll need players like Mattias Ekholm, Evander Kane, and Warren Foegele to step up.
Dallas’ Offensive Leaders:
Miro Heiskanen leads the Stars with 13 points (five goals, eight assists) this postseason, followed by Jason Robertson with 12 points and Wyatt Johnston with 11 points. The Stars have benefitted from strong performances from their young players. Roope Hintz, who’s out for Game 1, and Joe Pavelski were amongst the leaders in points during the regular season but have struggled to produce in the postseason. If the Stars want to advance they’ll need to continue to generate scoring from their top three lines.
Goaltending:
Goaltending will be pivotal tonight. Stuart Skinner of the Oilers ranks 20th in save percentage (.881), 17th in goals against average (GAA) (2.87), and 24th in goals saved above expected (-2.2) this postseason. Jake Oettinger of the Stars ranks 7th in save percentage (.918), 7th in GAA (2.09), and 4th in goals saved above expected (+5.2). Both goalies will play critical roles in determining the outcome of the game and the series.
EDM: Stuart Skinner [CONFIRMED]
DAL: Jake Oettinger [CONFIRMED]
Sides/ Totals:
Edmonton Oilers/ Dallas Stars over 5.5 (-140) – FanDuel
The Oilers have been impressive offensively this postseason, averaging 3.83 goals per game (GF/GP), ranking 2nd overall. However, their defense has been less effective, ranking 8th in goals against per game (GA/GP) with an average of 2.75. A significant issue for them is their goaltender, Stuart Skinner, who has struggled and is currently second to last in Goals Saved Above Expected (GSAx) this postseason. Although Skinner has improved in the last two games, this is partly due to Edmonton adopting a more defensive strategy to limit shots. This approach worked against Vancouver, who rank last in shots per game (Shots/GP), but it’s unlikely to be as effective against Dallas, who rank 7th in Shots/GP this postseason. Dallas is well-positioned to exploit Edmonton’s weak goaltending and should score at least 2-3 goals tonight. Meanwhile, the Oilers’ potent offense will face a stiffer challenge in Jake Oettinger. Oettinger, who left practice early on Wednesday due to an illness, will start tonight. If he’s not at 100%, this could lead to a higher-scoring game overall.
Player Props:
Evan Bouchard over 2.5 Shots on Goal (60 Min) (-132) – FanDuel
Evan Bouchard has been one of the focal points of Edmonton’s offense, with 20 points this postseason. Additionally, Bouchard is a key player on Edmonton’s first power play unit, which is likely to have several opportunities in tonight’s game.
Bouchard has consistently met his shots-on-goal quota in six of his last ten games. During that span, he’s averaging 3.3 Shots on Goal and 7.8 Shot Attempts.
Additionally, Bouchard boasts an impressive track record against Dallas, recording over 2.5 shots on goal in six of their last nine encounters.
On the road this season, Bouchard was much better recording over 2.5 shots on goal in 52.5% of the games compared to just 43.9% at home.
Dallas currently ranks 7th in the postseason for shots on goal allowed per game, averaging 27.50 shots. Breaking down the distribution by position, the Stars have conceded an average of 9.5 shots on goal per game to defensemen this postseason.
Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting. Any feedback whether positive or negative is always encouraged
We have a great show for you today! Kiev O’Neil @OBKiev is solo today to talk about the NFL strength of schedule and the NFC North! First, Kiev talks about how we should look at strength of schedule from a Vegas win total or a power rated perspective. Next, we get into net rest and how teams are looking from a rest perspective courtesy of Warren Sharp’s work at sharp football analysis. Then, Kiev gets into the NFC North conference with a breakdown of each team and how they faired in the offseason. Finally, Kiev talks about a play that he will be making when the numbers settle down a bit. Should you have any questions for the podcast, or games that you want us to cap during our shows, please message us at Info@TheOddsBreakers.com. Have a wonderful week!
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Tonight in the NHL, we’re set for a thrilling Game 1 showdown in the Eastern Conference Finals between the Florida Panthers and the New York Rangers. Let’s dive into this highly anticipated matchup, exploring the excitement it promises and highlighting some intriguing player props that deserve your attention.
Series Matchup:
Team
Series Price
Florida Panthers
-150
New York Rangers
+130
This is the second time the Rangers and Panthers have faced off in the Stanley Cup Playoffs. Their first encounter was 27 years ago, when New York won the Eastern Conference Quarterfinals in five games.
Regular Season Matchups:
During the regular season, the Panthers won two of the three matchups against the Rangers.
December 29th, 2023: New York Rangers 3 @ Florida Panthers 4
NYR: J. Quick (.879 SV%)
FLA: S. Bobrovsky (.912 SV%)
March 4th, 2024: Florida Panthers 4 @ New York Rangers 2
FLA: S. Bobrovsky (.929 SV%)
NYR: I. Shesterkin (.897 SV%)
March 23rd, 2024: Florida Panthers 3 @ New York Rangers 4 (SO)
FLA: S. Bobrovsky (.919 SV%)
NYR: I. Shesterkin (.900 SV%)
Path to the Eastern Conference Finals:
The Florida Panthers defeated the Tampa Bay Lightning 4-1 in the first round and the Boston Bruins 4-2 in the second round.
The New York Rangers defeated the Washington Capitals 4-0 in the first round and the Carolina Hurricanes 4-2 in the second round.
Game 1 Matchup:
Florida Panthers @ New York Rangers
Time: 8:00 PM ET
Series: Florida Panthers 0 – New York Rangers 0
Team
Opening ML
Current ML
Spread
Total
Florida Panthers
-110
-115
-1.5 (+230)
o5.5 (-108)
New York Rangers
-110
-105
+1.5 (-285)
u5.5 (-112)
Tonight’s matchup and the series overall will hinge on several key factors.
5-on-5 Comparison:
Among the 16 playoff teams this postseason, the Rangers rank 12th (2.21) in expected goals for per 60 minutes (xGF/60), 13th (2.58) in expected goals against per 60 minutes (xGA/60), and 14th (-0.25) in expected goal differential per 60 minutes. In contrast, the Panthers rank 7th (2.49) in xGF/60, 11th (2.49) in xGA/60, and 8th (0) in expected goal differential per 60 minutes. The Panthers have been significantly better at even strength during the postseason and will need to leverage this advantage while minimizing the Rangers’ power play opportunities.
Special Teams:
The Rangers excel on special teams, with a 31.4 percent success rate on the power play and an 89.5 percent success rate on the penalty kill, including four short-handed goals. The Panthers, meanwhile, are at 22.0 percent on the power play and 86.1 percent on the penalty kill. Florida will need to focus on discipline, as they have accrued the second most penalty minutes this postseason, to avoid giving the Rangers power play opportunities. Notably, the Rangers have faced the Capitals and Hurricanes, who are in the bottom half of penalty kill percentages, whereas Florida ranks 3rd, making this the Rangers’ toughest special teams challenge yet. During their three regular-season meetings, New York went 3-9 on the power play against Florida.
New York’s Offensive Leaders:
Vincent Trocheck and Mika Zibanejad have each tallied 14 points for the Rangers, largely from the power play. Artemi Panarin, who led the Rangers in points during the regular season, follows with 11 points (4 goals, 7 assists). Chris Kreider and Alexis Lafrenière each have 10 points. The Rangers have benefitted from strong performances from their star players, although Adam Fox, a former Norris Trophy winner, has only four points in the playoffs, despite being fourth in regular-season points.
Florida’s Offensive Leaders:
Matthew Tkachuk leads the Panthers with 14 points (4 goals, 10 assists) this postseason, followed by Aleksander Barkov with 13 points and Carter Verhaeghe with 11 points. Sam Reinhart, who led the Panthers in points during the regular season with 94, has 9 points in the playoffs. The Panthers’ ability to generate scoring from their top three lines will be crucial for their success.
Goaltending:
Goaltending will be pivotal tonight. Igor Shesterkin of the Rangers ranks 5th in save percentage (.923), 12th in goals against average (GAA) (2.40), and 2nd in goals saved above expected (+8.8) this postseason. Sergei Bobrovsky of the Panthers ranks 12th in save percentage (.902), 11th in GAA (2.37), and 8th in goals saved above expected (+2.6). Both goalies will play critical roles in determining the outcome of the game and the series.
FLA: Sergei Bobrovsky [CONFIRMED]
NYR: Igor Shesterkin [CONFIRMED]
Sides/ Totals:
New York Rangers / Florida Panthers over 5.5 (-108) – DraftKings
Despite the Rangers’ struggles at even strength, they are likely to have ample power play opportunities tonight to generate offense. The Panthers have been the second most penalized team this postseason, and in each of their three regular-season matchups, the Rangers had multiple man-advantage chances. Florida is averaging 3.55 goals per game (GF/GP) in the playoffs and has scored at least three goals against the Rangers in each of their regular season encounters. Igor Shesterkin has historically struggled against the Panthers, allowing three or more goals in four of his last six games against them. Similarly, Sergei Bobrovsky has allowed three or more goals in five of his last six games against the Rangers.
Player Props:
Vladamir Tarasenko over 1.5 Shots on Goal (-135) – DraftKings
Forward Vladimir Tarasenko, acquired by the Panthers from the Ottawa Senators before the 2024 NHL Trade Deadline, played for the Rangers last season, tallying 25 points (11 goals, 14 assists) in the regular season and playoffs combined over 38 games. The Rangers did not re-sign Tarasenko last offseason, potentially giving him extra motivation against his former team. This season, Tarasenko achieved his eighth 20-goal season (23 goals) and eighth 50-point season (55 points) in the NHL. Although he has been relatively quiet in the postseason with two goals and five points in 11 games, he could significantly boost the Panthers if his scoring ignites in this series. He recorded three points (two goals, one assist) and eight shots on goal in three games against the Rangers this season.
Tarasenko has consistently met his shots on goal quota in four of his last five games. During that span, he’s averaging 2.0 Shots on Goal and 4.0 Shot Attempts.
Additionally, Tarasenko boasts an impressive track record against New York, recording over 1.5 shots on goal in five of their last six encounters.
New York currently ranks 14th in the postseason for shots on goal allowed per game, averaging 32.50 shots. Breaking down the distribution by position, the Rangers have conceded an average of 7.0 shots on goal per game to left-wingers this postseason.
Adam Fox over 1.5 Shots on Goal (-140) – DraftKings
Fox has consistently met his shots on goal quota in four of his last five games. During that span, he’s averaging 2.0 Shots on Goal and 5.2 Shot Attempts.
Additionally, Fox boasts an impressive track record against Florida, recording over 1.5 shots on goal in five of their last eight encounters.
Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting. Any feedback whether positive or negative is always encouraged.
Last week, Xander Schauffele clinched his first Major Championship at the PGA Championship, finally achieving victory after coming close in other events this season, including the Wells Fargo Championship and THE PLAYERS Championship. This triumph marks his eighth PGA Tour win.
Before we’ve even teed off, the storylines have already started…
Scottie Scheffler certainly has an interesting week in Lousiville. On Friday he was arrested which forced him to show up to his tee time just an hour before where he went out and shot a 66. On Saturday, he struggled posting a 73 which took him out of contention heading into the final round. he would make a charge on Sunday and end up finishing T8. This will be his fifth appearance at Colonial Country Club where he’s played well in the past few seasons. In 2022, he lost in a playoff to Sam Burns and last year he finished T3.
Collin Morikawa came up short in his quest for a third Major championship. He was tied with Xander at -15 going into Sunday but struggled with his putting, recording only one birdie in his final round. This will be his fifth time participating in this event, with his best finish in 2022, where he lost in a playoff to Daniel Berger.
Emiliano Grillo aims to defend his title at Colonial Country Club. Last year, he claimed his second PGA Tour victory after defeating Adam Schenk in a playoff. The two traded pars on the first playoff hole before Grillo secured the win with a birdie on the second extra hole, marking his first victory in seven years.
Jordan Spieth, who won this event in 2016 and has seven other top-10 finishes at Colonial Country Club, seeks to bounce back after finishing T43 at the PGA Championship last week. Although Spieth had a strong start to the season, he has missed the cut in two of his last five starts.
Colonial Country Club, established in 1936, has a rich history in golf. It has hosted significant tournaments such as the U.S. Open in 1941, the U.S. Women’s Open in 1991, and the second edition of THE PLAYERS Championship in 1975. The club is closely associated with legendary golfer Ben Hogan, a Fort Worth resident who won the Colonial tournament five times, the most of any player, and considered it his home course.
The Colonial tournament, now known as the Charles Schwab Challenge, was founded in 1946, making it the longest-running non-major on the PGA Tour to be contested at the same course. The Charles Schwab Corporation has been the event’s title sponsor since 2019, with their current deal set to expire after this year’s event. Previous sponsors include Dean & Deluca (2016–2017), Crowne Plaza (2007–2015), Bank of America (2003–2006), MasterCard (1996–2002), and Southwestern Bell (1989–1994). The tournament had no title sponsor in 1995 and 2018.
Winners of the Charles Schwab Challenge receive a tartan plaid jacket, a tradition that started in 1952 to honor the club’s Scottish heritage. Another enduring tradition is the Wall of Champions on the first tee, which features the names and scores of each champion since 1946, along with winners of the 1975 Tournament Players Championship, 1941 U.S. Open, and 1991 U.S. Women’s Open.
The Charles Schwab Challenge is one of five PGA Tour tournaments granted “invitational” status, reducing the field to 120-132 players and offering a larger purse. The tournament also includes a unique tradition called the Champion’s Choice, where former champions select two deserving young players, otherwise ineligible, to compete. This year, Max Greyserman and Parker Coody are the Champion’s Choices. Parker’s brother, Pierceson Coody, was a Champion’s Choice last year and earned a sponsor invite for this year’s event. Five Champion’s Choices have gone on to win the Colonial, with Dave Stockton being the only one to do so in the year he was selected (1967).
Following last year’s tournament, Colonial Country Club underwent a comprehensive $20 million renovation, overseen by Gil Hanse. Originally scheduled for 2022, the project was delayed due to supply chain issues and began after the 2023 event. Hanse, who previously renovated Perry Maxwell’s Southern Hills and the Los Angeles Country Club for the 2022 U.S. Open, updated every aspect of the course infrastructure, including new irrigation systems, bunkers, tees, turf, and green complexes.
Hole
Yards (2023)
Yards (2024)
Par
Hole
Yards (2023)
Yards (2024)
Par
1
565
581
5
10
408
407
4
2
389
385
4
11
635
639
5
3
483
475
4
12
445
457
4
4
247
248
3
13
190
199
3
5
481
476
4
14
464
456
4
6
406
410
4
15
430
431
4
7
440
480
4
16
192
197
3
8
199
194
3
17
387
399
4
9
407
413
4
18
441
442
4
OUT
3,617
3,662
35
IN
3,592
3,627
70
TOTAL
7,209
7,289
Most Tournament Wins:
5, Ben Hogan (1946, 1947, 1952, 1953, 1959)
72-Hole Record:
259, Zach Johnson (2010)
18-Hole Record:
61, Keith Clearwater (Round 2, 1993), Lee Janzen (Round 4, 1993), Greg Kraft (Round 3, 1999), Kenny Perry (Round 3, 2003), Justin Leonard (Round 4, 2003), Chad Campbell (Round 3, 2004), Kevin Na (Round 4, 2018)
Course Guide/ Scorecard:
Originally crafted by John Bredemus & Perry Maxwell in 1936, Colonial Country Club features a Par 70 layout, comprising four Par 3s, twelve Par 4s, and two Par 5s.
In terms of length, Colonial Country Club is one of the shorter courses on the Tour measuring 7,289 yards. It ranks 12th out of 44 courses in length.The fairways are on the narrower side, ranking 4th of 44, with the average fairway width being 27.5 yards. The average green size is roughly 5,000 square feet which is on the smaller side when compared to the other courses on the PGA Tour. Bunkers aren’t a factor here as there are only 64 which ranks as the 15th fewest of 44 courses.
The four Par 3’s range between 194 yards and 248 yards. In terms of stats, three of the Par 3’s range between 175-200 yards. In the last edition of this event, all of the Par 3’s had a scoring average over par.
No. 4, 247 Yards, Par 3: This is the longest of the par 3s. The elevated green is difficult to hold. This is the only par 3 that has not yielded a hole-in-one during the 62-year history of the tournament. Last year, this was the toughest par 3 with only 24 birdies compared to 87 bogeys.
There are twelve Par 4’s at Colonial Country Club with the majority (ten) of those holes ranging between 400 and 500 yards.No. 2 is the shortest Par 4 listed at 385 yards with the longest being No. 7, playing 480 yards.In terms of scoring average, the toughest Par 4 on the course last year was No. 5 (+0.25).
No. 3, 475 Yards, Par 4: This is the beginning of Colonial’s “Horrible Horseshoe” — the three most difficult holes on the golf course. The long dogleg left requires a perfectly placed tee shot around a large tree and bunkers. A long approach shot makes birdies rare.
No. 5, 476 Yards, Par 4: This is the hardest hole, and the most famous, at Colonial and the last of the “Horrible Horseshoe.” The tee shot must be precise — there’s a ditch to the left and a river on the right. Even a good tee shot leaves a long, narrow approach. Last year, this was the toughest hole on the course with a scoring average of 0.25 strokes over par.
There are only two Par 5’s at Colonial Country Club, No. 1 & No. 11. They both played under par in 2023, despite being some of the longer par 5’s on Tour. The easiest hole on the course last year was No. 1 with a scoring average of 4.625.
No. 1, 565 Yards, Par 5: Off the tee, players will try to aim up the right side of the hole to avoid the fairway bunkers along the left. If they’re able to do so, they’ll have a wedge in allowing them a chance at birdie. Last year, this was the easiest hole on the course with a scoring average of -0.375 under par.
No. 11, 635 Yards, Par 5: This is a narrow hole requiring a precise tee shot off the tee. Most players will not be able to reach the green in two. Instead, they’ll lay up around 125 leaving them a short shot in while avoiding the several fairway bunkers.
Success this week will hinge on players’ ability to position themselves effectively off the tee. While the course’s considerable length underscores the significance of distance, precision holds equal importance.
Leaders in this category in the last 24 Rounds:
Scottie Scheffler (+24.60 Total, +1.03 Per Round)
Keith Mitchell (+22.01 Total, +0.92 Per Round)
Alejandro Tosti (+19.76 Total, +0.82 Per Round)
Kevin Yu (+19.05 Total, +0.79 Per Round)
Jordan Spieth (+14.90 Total, +0.62 Per Round)
Maverick McNealy (+14.18 Total, +0.59 Per Round)
Collin Morikawa (+12.76 Total, +0.53 Per Round)
Min Woo Lee (+12.46 Total, +0.52 Per Round)
Austin Eckroat (+12.16 Total, +0.51 Per Round)
Jimmy Stanger (+11.42 Total, +0.48 Per Round)
Strokes Gained: Approach
Each of the past six winners ranked 12th or better in SG: Approach amongst the field. Having a strong iron game will be important this week if players want to succeed.
Leaders in this category in the last 24 Rounds:
Scottie Scheffler (+29.88 Total, +1.24 Per Round)
Akshay Bhatia (+24.49 Total, +1.02 Per Round)
Ryan Moore (+22.20 Total, +0.93 Per Round)
Adam Svensson (+19.00 Total, +0.79 Per Round)
Tom Hoge (+18.22 Total, +0.76 Per Round)
Aaron Rai (+18.21 Total, +0.76 Per Round)
Si Woo Kim (+17.14 Total, +0.71 Per Round)
Tony Finau (+17.12 Total, +0.71 Per Round)
Keith Mitchell (+16.31 Total, +0.68 Per Round)
Lucas Glover (+16.31 Total, +0.68 Per Round)
Strokes Gained: Putting (Bentgrass)
The green complexes at Colonial Country Club are 007XL bentgrass .100”. Each of the past five winners ranked 8th or better in SG: Putting amongst the field.
Leaders in this category in the last 24 Rounds:
Denny McCarthy (+25.77 Total, +1.07 Per Round)
J.T. Poston (+22.62 Total, +0.94 Per Round)
Maverick McNealy (+19.97 Total, +0.83 Per Round)
Harris English (+19.32 Total, +0.80 Per Round)
Dylan Wu (+19.13 Total, +0.80 Per Round)
Justin Rose (+18.74 Total, +0.78 Per Round)
Beau Hossler (+17.17 Total, +0.72 Per Round)
Max Homa (+16.93 Total, +0.71 Per Round)
Keegan Bradley (+16.74 Total, +0.70 Per Round)
Harry Hall (+14.73 Total, +0.61 Per Round)
Driving Accuracy
Accuracy off the tee is crucial this week at Colonial Country Club. Four of thepast six winners ranked 20th or better in Driving Accuracy amongst the field.
Leaders in this category this season:
Collin Morikawa (78.74%)
Sepp Straka (78.02%)
Si Woo Kim (75.87%)
Lucas Glover (74.92%)
J.T. Poston (74.18%)
Scottie Scheffler (74.08%)
Russell Henley (74.05%)
Aaron Rai (72.32%)
Grayson Murray (71.65%)
Daniel Berger (71.24%)
Par 3 Scoring: 175-200 Yards (x3)
Three of the four Par 3’s at Colonial Country Club range between 175-200 Yards.
Leaders in this category in the last 24 Rounds:
Tyson Alexander (+13.94 Total, +0.58 Per Round)
Denny McCarthy (+8.89 Total, +0.37 Per Round)
J.T. Poston (+6.64 Total, +0.28 Per Round)
Akshay Bhatia (+6.42 Total, +0.27 Per Round)
Gary Woodland (+5.84 Total, +0.24 Per Round)
Greyson Sigg (+5.46 Total, +0.23 Per Round)
Parker Coody (+5.19 Total, +0.22 Per Round)
Billy Horschel (+5.16 Total, +0.22 Per Round)
Peter Malnati (+5.13 Total, +0.21 Per Round)
Patrick Rodgers (+4.78 Total, +0.20 Per Round)
Par 4 Scoring: 400-450 Yards (x5) / 450-500 Yards (x5)
Five of the twelve Par 4’s at Colonial Country Club range between 400-450 Yards & 450-500 Yards.
Leaders in Par 4 Scoring 400-450 Yards in the last 24 Rounds:
Brian Harman (+13.00 Total, +0.54 Per Round)
Akshay Bhatia (+12.76 Total, +0.53 Per Round)
Matt Kuchar (+12.44 Total, +0.52 Per Round)
Grayson Murray (+12.05 Total, +0.50 Per Round)
Scottie Scheffler (+11.29 Total, +0.47 Per Round)
Andrew Putnam (+10.08 Total, +0.42 Per Round)
Lucas Glover (+10.02 Total, +0.42 Per Round)
J.T. Poston (+9.90 Total, +0.41 Per Round)
Ryo Hisatsune (+9.31 Total, +0.39 Per Round)
Matti Schmid (+9.17 Total, +0.38 Per Round)
Leaders in Par 4 Scoring 450-500 Yards in the last 24 Rounds:
Scottie Scheffler (+19.87 Total, +0.83 Per Round)
Tom Hoge (+13.94 Total, +0.58 Per Round)
Webb Simpson (+13.46 Total, +0.56 Per Round)
Ben Kohles (+13.33 Total, +0.56 Per Round)
Billy Horschel (+12.46 Total, +0.52 Per Round)
Mark Hubbard (+12.44 Total, +0.52 Per Round)
Lucas Glover (+11.51 Total, +0.48 Per Round)
Sepp Straka (+10.40 Total, +0.43 Per Round)
Chris Kirk (+10.36 Total, +0.43 Per Round)
Collin Morikawa (+10.23 Total, +0.43 Per Round)
Proximity Gained: 125-150 & 125-175 Yards
Below is the approach shot distribution chart from last year’s event (via DataGolf). Most approach shots come from the 125-150 & 125-175 yard range at a volume much higher than the PGA Tour average.
Leaders in Proximity Gained: 125-150 Yards in the last 24 Rounds:
Tom Hoge (+274.12 Total, +11.42 Per Round)
Pierceson Coody (+268.03 Total, +11.17 Per Round)
Chan Kim (+222.05 Total, +9.25 Per Round)
Eric Cole (+208.82 Total, +8.70 Per Round)
Lucas Glover (+197.10 Total, +8.21 Per Round)
J.T. Poston (+194.55 Total, +8.11 Per Round)
Ryan Moore (+175.80 Total, +7.33 Per Round)
Garrick Higgo (+173.39 Total, +7.22 Per Round)
Troy Merritt (+162.15 Total, +6.76 Per Round)
Scottie Scheffler (+154.55 Total, +6.44 Per Round)
Leaders in Proximity Gained: 150-175 Yards in the last 24 Rounds:
Scottie Scheffler (+391.94 Total, +16.33 Per Round)
Daniel Berger (+326.08 Total, +13.59 Per Round)
Keith Mitchell (+316.07 Total, +13.17 Per Round)
Adam Schenk (+308.77 Total, +12.87 Per Round)
Sepp Straka (+290.93 Total, +12.12 Per Round)
Keegan Bradley (+272.82 Total, +11.37 Per Round)
David Skinns (+246.95 Total, +10.29 Per Round)
Justin Lower (+232.58 Total, +9.69 Per Round)
Tom Whitney (+220.02 Total, +9.17 Per Round)
Rickie Fowler (+213.35 Total, +8.89 Per Round)
Bogey AvoidanceGained
Valhalla Golf Club ranks among the most challenging courses on the PGA Tour. Patience will be key this week as players navigate the layout and capitalize on limited scoring chances. Throughout the event, players must strive to minimize any black numbers scores on their cards.
Leaders in this category in the last 24 Rounds:
Scottie Scheffler (+29.92 Total, +1.25 Per Round)
Denny McCarthy (+22.70 Total, +0.95 Per Round)
Christiaan Bezuidenhout (+17.26 Total, +0.72 Per Round)
Aaron Rai (+15.78 Total, +0.66 Per Round)
Greyson Sigg (+14.57 Total, +0.61 Per Round)
Kevin Tway (+14.20 Total, +0.59 Per Round)
Martin Laird (+13.99 Total, +0.58 Per Round)
Billy Horschel (+13.13 Total, +0.55 Per Round)
Sepp Straka (+12.96 Total, +0.54 Per Round)
Keith Mitchell (+12.18 Total, +0.51 Per Round)
Comparable Courses and Event History
Looking at the Data Golf Course History Tool, prior experience at the Colonial Country Club has proven to be advantageous.
Leaders in this category in the last (Multiple Events Played):
Jordan Spieth (11 Events – 67.95 Scoring Average per Round)
Justin Rose (10 Events – 68.71 Scoring Average per Round)
Matt Kuchar (13 Events – 68.83 Scoring Average per Round)
Tony Finau (8 Events – 68.87 Scoring Average per Round)
Collin Morikawa (4 Events – 68.88 Scoring Average per Round)
Harris English (8 Events – 69.00 Scoring Average per Round)
Scottie Scheffler (4 Events – 69.00 Scoring Average per Round)
Zach Johnson (18 Events – 69.06 Scoring Average per Round)
Daniel Berger (5 Events – 69.22 Scoring Average per Round)
Ben Silverman (2 Events – 69.25 Scoring Average per Round)
The Field:
This year’s Charles Schwab Challenge will feature a total of 132 competitors.
Here is the current basis of qualification for each entrant this week:
Colonial winners prior to 2000 and in the last five years
Colonial Winners in top 150 of prior year FedEx Cup points list
The Players Championship and major championship winners in the last five years
The Tour Championship and World Golf Championships winners in the past three years
Arnold Palmer Invitational and Memorial winners in the past three years
PGA Tour tournament winners since the last Colonial tournament
Playing members on the last named U.S. Ryder Cup team
Current PGA Tour members who were playing members on the last named European Ryder Cup team, U.S. Presidents Cup team, and International President’s Cup team
Two players to be selected by the current and former champions of the Colonial tournament (Champions Choices)
Top 15 finishers and ties from previous year’s Colonial Tournament
12 sponsors exemptions — 2 from among graduates of Web.com Tour finals, 6 members not otherwise exempt, and 4 unrestricted
Top 50 Official World Golf Ranking through the Masters
Top 80 from prior year’s FedEx Cup points list
Members in the top 125 non-member category whose non-WGC points for the previous season equal or exceed the points earned by the player finishing in 80th position on the prior year FedEx Cup points list
Top 80 from current year’s FedEx Cup points list through the tournament two weeks prior
Any remaining positions are filled from current year’s FedEx Cup points list
Previous Winners in the Field (Event):
Emiliano Grillo (’23), Daniel Berger (’20), Justin Rose (’18), Kevin Kisner (’17), Jordan Spieth (’16), Chris Kirk (’15), Adam Scott (’14), Zach Johnson (’12, ’10), Rory Sabbatini (’07)
Debutants in the Field (Event):
Alejandro Tosti, Carl Yuan, Chan Kim, Chandler Phillips, Christopher Gotterup, David Skinns, Davis Thompson, Erik Barnes, Hayden Springer, Jacob Bridgeman, Jimmy Stanger, Joe Highsmith, Jorge Campillo, Kevin Yu, Mac Meissner, Matthias Schmid, Max Greyserman, Nicolai Hojgaard, Nicolas Echavarria, Parker Coody, Patrick Fishburn, Rafael Campos, Robert MacIntyre, Ryan McCormick, Ryo Hisatsune, Sami Valimaki, Thorbjorn Olesen, Tom Kim, Tom Whitney
Players with Texas ties in the Field:
Birthplace:
Taylor Moore – San Angelo, Texas
Pierceson Coody – Plano, Texas
Parker Coody – Plano, Texas
Jordan Spieth – Dallas, Texas
Ryan Palmer – Amarillo, Texas
Ben Kohles – Dallas, Texas
Chandler Phillips – Huntsville, Texas
College:
Beau Hossler – Texas
Pierceson Coody – Texas
Parker Coody – Texas
Jimmy Walker – Baylor
Mac Meissner – SMU
Hayden Springer – Texas Tech
Doug Ghim – Texas
Jordan Spieth – Texas
Scottie Scheffler – Texas
Tom Hoge – TCU
Ryan Palmer – Texas A&M
Erik Barnes – Austin Peay
Chandler Phillips – Texas A&M
Austin Smotherman – SMU
Notable Withdraws/ Changes:
WD: Nick Dunlap -> IN: Ryan Fox
WD: Stephan Jaeger -> IN: Jorge Campillo
WD: Olin Browne (field size reduced to 132)
WD: Viktor Hovland -> IN: Wesley Bryan
To see the full field for this event and how they qualified, you can click the following link.
The Odds:
Here are the current favorites in this week’s event and a summary of their recent form and course history.
Scottie Scheffler (+275) finished T8 at the PGA Championship last week. Prior to that, he had won four of his last five starts, including his second Major Championship at Augusta National. This week marks his fifth appearance at Colonial Country Club. In his last two visits, he lost in a playoff to Sam Burns in 2022 and finished T3 in 2023.
Collin Morikawa (+1200) has been on an impressive run, finishing inside the top 20 in four of his last five starts. Last week at Valhalla Golf Club, he finished T4 after being tied for the lead after 54 holes. This will be his fifth appearance at Colonial Country Club. His best finish here was in his debut, where he lost in a playoff to Daniel Berger. He subsequently finished T14 in 2021, T40 in 2022, and T29 in 2023.
Jordan Spieth (+2000) has struggled this season, with only three top-10 finishes in thirteen starts. He has missed the cut in two of his last five starts and is coming off a T43 finish at the PGA Championship last week. Despite his recent form, Spieth has a strong history at Colonial Country Club, winning the event in 2016 and finishing inside the top 10 in eight of his eleven prior visits. However, he missed the cut at this tournament last year.
Max Homa (+2200) will make his sixth appearance at Colonial Country Club this week. After struggling in his first few starts and missing the cut in two of his first three trips, he has performed much better recently, finishing T23 in 2022 and T9 in 2023. While he has not won an event this season, Homa has played well, with six top-20 finishes in his eleven starts. Last week at the PGA Championship, he finished T35.
Tony Finau (+2800) will make his ninth appearance at Colonial Country Club this week. His best finish here was in 2019 when he was the runner-up. Besides 2019, he has finished inside the top 25 four other times at this venue.
To see the most up-to-date odds, you can click the following link.
The winning score of the last two Charles Schwab Challenges has been above 267.5. However,before that, the winning score was below 267.5 from 2021-2018 (4 Editions).
To place a bet at Superbook on the Projected Final Score of the Winner, you can click the following link.
Playoff Props:
Will There Be A Playoff? (Yes +350 / No -500)
Three of the last four editions of the Charles Schwab Challenge have ended in a playoff. In 2023, Emiliano Grillo defeated Adam Schenk and in the year prior, Sam Burns defeated Scottie Scheffler. In 2020, Daniel Berger defeated Collin Morikawa.
To place a bet at DraftKings on the Playoff Prop, you can click the following link.
Hole-in-One:
Will There Be A Hole-in-One? (Yes +110/ No -150)
Last year, there were two holes-in-one, both on No. 8.
To place a bet at DraftKings on the Hole-in-One Prop, you can click the following link.
Recent Horses for Courses:
Charles Schwab Challenge
Charles Schwab Challenge
Charles Schwab Challenge
Charles Schwab Challenge
Charles Schwab Challenge
Colonial Country Club
Colonial Country Club
Colonial Country Club
Colonial Country Club
Colonial Country Club
Events Played
Scoring Avg. (per round)
2023
2022
2021
2020
2019
Jordan Spieth
11
67.95
MC
T7
2
T10
T8
Justin Rose
10
68.71
T12
MC
T20
T3
T58
Tony Finau
8
68.87
MC
T4
T20
T23
2
Scottie Scheffler
4
69.00
T3
2
MC
T55
–
Daniel Berger
5
69.22
–
T23
T20
WON
T53
Brian Harman
11
69.25
T29
MC
T8
T23
T31
Emiliano Grillo
8
69.27
WON
T63
T8
MC
T19
Gary Woodland
4
69.46
–
MC
T14
9
–
Christiaan Bezuidenhout
3
69.50
T21
T15
–
MC
–
Chad Ramey
2
69.63
T12
T27
–
–
–
Recent Donkeys for Courses:
Charles Schwab Challenge
Charles Schwab Challenge
Charles Schwab Challenge
Charles Schwab Challenge
Charles Schwab Challenge
Colonial Country Club
Colonial Country Club
Colonial Country Club
Colonial Country Club
Colonial Country Club
Events Played
Scoring Avg. (per round)
2023
2022
2021
2020
2019
Garrick Higgo
2
73.50
MC
MC
–
–
–
Taylor Moore
2
72.75
MC
MC
–
–
–
Hayden Buckley
2
72.75
MC
MC
–
–
–
Greyson Sigg
2
72.75
MC
MC
–
–
–
Sam Ryder
2
72.38
MC
MC
MC
MC
–
Joseph Bramlett
2
72.25
MC
–
MC
–
–
Previous Winners Scores, Prices, and Strokes Gained (Rank at Tournament):
2023: Emiliano Grillo (-8)
Price: 80-1
SG: Off the Tee
SG: Tee to Green
SG: Approach
SG: Around the Green
SG: Putting
Emiliano Grillo
41st
20th
6th
43rd
2nd
2022: Sam Burns (-9)
Price: 30-1
SG: Off the Tee
SG: Tee to Green
SG: Approach
SG: Around the Green
SG: Putting
Sam Burns
6th
9th
12th
38th
6th
2021: Jason Kokrak (-14)
Price: 60-1
SG: Off the Tee
SG: Tee to Green
SG: Approach
SG: Around the Green
SG: Putting
Jason Kokrak
1st
2nd
8th
61st
7th
2020: Daniel Berger (-15)
Price: 70-1
SG: Off the Tee
SG: Tee to Green
SG: Approach
SG: Around the Green
SG: Putting
Daniel Berger
31st
4th
5th
27th
8th
2019: Kevin Na (-13)
Price: 70-1
SG: Off the Tee
SG: Tee to Green
SG: Approach
SG: Around the Green
SG: Putting
Kevin Na
18th
2nd
1st
58th
2nd
Previous Winners Incoming Form (Last 5 Starts):
2023: Emiliano Grillo
MC – PGA Championship (MAJ)
T23 – Wells Fargo Championship (PGA)
T5 – Mexico Open (PGA)
T7 – RBC Heritage (PGA)
T53 – Valero Texas Open
2022: Sam Burns
T20 – PGA Championship (MAJ)
MC – AT&T Byron Nelson (PGA)
2 – Zurich Classic (PGA)
MC – The Masters (MAJ)
WON – Valspar Championship (PGA)
2021: Jason Kokrak
T49 – PGA Championship (MAJ)
T13 – Valspar Championship (PGA)
T21 – Zurich Classic of New Orleans (PGA)
49 – The Masters (MAJ)
T42 – WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play (PGA)
2020: Daniel Berger
T4 – The Honda Classic (PGA)
T5 – AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am (PGA)
T9 – Waste Management Phoenix Open (PGA)
T29 – The American Express (PGA)
T38 – Sony Open in Hawaii (PGA)
2019: Kevin Na
MC – PGA Championship (MAJ)
T35 – AT&T Byron Nelson (PGA)
T10 – RBC Heritage (PGA)
T46 – The Masters (MAJ)
T5 – WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play (PGA)
Previous Winners Finishes at Event:
2023: Emiliano Grillo
2022
2021
2020
2019
2018
2017
2016
Charles Schwab Challenge
Charles Schwab Challenge
Charles Schwab Challenge
Charles Schwab Challenge
Forth Worth Invitational
DEAN & DELUCA Invitational
DEAN & DELUCA Invitational
Emiliano Grillo
T63
T8
MC
T19
3
T24
T55
2022: Sam Burns
2019
2018
Charles Schwab Challenge
Forth Worth Invitational
Sam Burns
T31
MC
2021: Jason Kokrak
2020
2018
2017
2016
2015
2013
Charles Schwab Challenge
Forth Worth Invitational
DEAN & DELUCA Invitational
DEAN & DELUCA Invitational
Crowne Plazza Invitational
Crowne Plazza Invitational
Jason Kokrak
T3
T32
MC
T55
MC
T18
2020: Daniel Berger
2019
2015
Charles Schwab Challenge
Crowne Plazza Invitational
Daniel Berger
T53
MC
2019: Kevin Na
2018
2016
2015
2014
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2005
Forth Worth Invtl.
DEAN & DELUCA Invtl.
Crowne Plazza Invtl.
Crowne Plazza Invtl.
Crowne Plazza Invtl.
Crowne Plazza Invtl.
Crowne Plazza Invtl.
Crowne Plazza Invtl.
Crowne Plazza Invtl.
Crowne Plazza Invtl.
Bank of America Colonial
Kevin Na
4
T42
T10
MC
T13
T40
T22
T9
T59
T7
T17
Picks (Outrights):
Christiaan Bezuidenhout (+5000) – BetMGM
Risk 0.16 to win 8.00 Units
Keegan Bradley (+5500) – BetMGM
Risk 0.15 to win 8.25 Units
Austin Eckroat (+5500) – BetMGM
Risk 0.15 to win 8.25 Units
Thomas Detry (+5500) – BetMGM
Risk 0.15 to win 8.25 Units
Lucas Glover (+6600) – BetMGM
Risk 0.13 to win 8.58 Units
Justin Rose (+6600) – BetMGM
Risk 0.13 to win 8.58 Units
Maverick McNealy (+6600) – BetMGM
Risk 0.13 to win 8.58 Units
Aaron Rai (+7000) – FanDuel
Risk 0.12 to win 8.40 Units
Total Risk on Outrights: 1.11 Units
Picks (Top 20):
Harris English (+140) – BetMGM
Risk 1.00 to win 1.40 Units
Sepp Straka (+175) – BetMGM
Risk 1.00 to win 1.75 Units
Total Risk on Top 20s: 2.00 Units
Picks (Top 40):
Lee Hodges (+120) – BetMGM
Risk 1.00 to win 1.20 Units
Peter Malnati (+250) – BetMGM
Risk 1.00 to win 2.50 Units
Total Risk on Top 40s: 2.00 Units
As always, all of my placement bets are through BetMGM as they’re one of the only books without dead-heat rules. If you’d like to bet these placements at BetMGM, you can get up to $1500 in Bonus Bets if you don’t win if you’re a first-time user. Must Be 21+. Gambling Problem? Call or Text 1-800-GAMBLER.
Total Risk on the Charles Schwab Challenge: 5.11 Units
Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting. Any feedback whether positive or negative is always en
Tonight in the NHL, we’re set for a thrilling Game 7 showdown between the Edmonton Oilers and the Vancouver Canucks. Let’s dive into this highly anticipated matchup, exploring the excitement it promises and highlighting some intriguing player props that deserve your attention.
Matchup:
Edmonton Oilers @ Vancouver Canucks
Time: 9:00 PM ET
Series: Edmonton Oilers 3 – Vancouver Canucks 3
Team
Opening ML
Current ML
Spread
Total
Edmonton Oilers
-142
-162
-1.5 (+164)
o5.5 (-120)
Vancouver Canucks
+120
+136
+1.5 (-198)
u5.5 (+100)
Tonight’s matchup will hinge on several key factors.
Can Edmonton generate scoring chances beyond Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl? Draisaitl leads the NHL in postseason points with 23 (8 goals, 15 assists), while McDavid is close behind with 21 points (2 goals, 19 assists). Evan Bouchard, impressive during the regular season with an average of over a point per game, has continued his strong performance in the playoffs with 18 points through 11 games. Ryan Nugent-Hopkins and Zach Hyman are also producing at over a point per game, though the majority of their points have come on the power play. For the Oilers to advance to the Western Conference Finals, they need contributions from players like Mattias Ekholm, Evander Kane, and Warren Foegele. While McDavid and Draisaitl have been outstanding, winning the Stanley Cup requires a full-team effort.
Power Play Efficiency: The Oilers lead the playoffs with a 36.8% conversion rate on the power play, despite going 0-8 in their last two games. Before this dry spell, Edmonton had scored on the man advantage in every playoff game. They will need to get their power play back on track tonight.
Goaltending: Goaltending will be a crucial factor tonight. Stuart Skinner will start for the Oilers after posting a .933 save percentage in Game 6, facing only 15 shots—the fewest the Oilers have allowed all postseason. Skinner ranks 20th in save percentage (.881), 19th in GAA (2.97), and 25th in Goals Saved Above Expected (-2.9) in these playoffs. Opposite Skinner, Arturs Silovs will start for the Canucks. With Vancouver’s top netminder and Vezina finalist Thatcher Demko sidelined due to a knee injury, Silovs has stepped in, ranking 14th in save percentage (.898), 17th in GAA (2.89), and 13th in Goals Saved Above Expected (+0.6).
Vancouver’s Offensive Leaders: J.T. Miller and Brock Boeser have each tallied 12 points for the Canucks. However, Boeser is out for Game 7 due to a blood clotting issue. Vancouver will need players like Elias Pettersson, Quinn Hughes, Filip Hronek, and Elias Lindholm to elevate their game. Pettersson, who recorded 89 points during the regular season, has only 6 points in 12 postseason games. For the Canucks to advance, they need a standout performance from one of their stars.
EDM: Stuart Skinner [CONFIRMED]
VAN: Arthur Silovs [CONFIRMED]
Sides/ Totals:
Edmonton Oilers / Vancouver Canucks over 5.5 (-115) – Caesars
My pick for tonight’s matchup is the over on 5.5 goals scored. The Oilers only allowed 15 shots on goal last game, a feat I doubt they can replicate on the road. Skinner has struggled in net this postseason, so if he faces 20-25 shots, I’d expect him to allow at least 2-3 goals. Meanwhile, the Oilers’ offensive firepower has consistently overwhelmed the Canucks, scoring three or more goals in all but one game this series. Heading into Game 7, I anticipate this trend will continue.
Player Props:
J.T. Miller over 2.5 Shots on Goal (-115) – DraftKings
J.T. Miller and Brock Boeser have been the focal points of Vancouver’s offense, each leading the team with 12 points. With Boeser out of the lineup, I expect Miller to step up and generate as many chances as possible tonight. Joining Miller on the top line are Ilya Mikheyev and Elias Pettersson, both primarily playmakers. While Miller has more assists than goals, I anticipate he will take on a more commanding role and shoot the puck more tonight.
Additionally, Miller is a key player on Vancouver’s first power play unit, which is likely to have several opportunities in tonight’s game. The Canucks have had multiple power play chances in each game of the series.
Miller has consistently met his shots on goal quota in his last two games. In Game 5, he had four shots on goal out of seven attempts and led the Vancouver forwards in ice time. In Game 6, he recorded three shots on goal from seven attempts.
At home this season, Miller was much better recording over 2.5 shots on goal in 43.9% of the games compared to just 40.0% on the road.
Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting. Any feedback whether positive or negative is always encouraged.
Popular topic here at TheOddsbreakers as we approach the running of the 149th Preakness Stakes. Patrick Gates, and Kiev O’Neil also have articles that have posted and we are all going to attack the race in different directions. That’s part of the beauty of horse racing. There’s so many different ways to bet the races, and it only takes $1 to hit something big if the right numbers come in.
So am I attacking the race with a mindset that the track will be fairly sloppy. It has been raining in Baltimore all morning and looks like it will stop around 11 AM. The sun is not scheduled to come out before the Preakness runs, and there will likely be only four dirt races run after the rain stops. The mud hasn’t slowed Mystik Dan who gets Brian Hernandez on board. Mystik Dan blew away the field in the mud at the Southwest, and had the Kentucky Derby run on a track that while listed fast still had some moisture in it. His last three times out he has produced three of the top five speed figures in the entire field. Consistency and having shown the ability to run in the mud has me investing on the favorite here. Catching Freedom also has drawn more of my attention with the mud as he showed well in the slop and the Risen Star, reeling in a good chunk of the field and finishing third less than two lengths behind Sierra Leone. Looking at other horses I think Tuscan Gold could compete here if he moves forward from his Louisiana Derby run, but I don’t trust him if the track is wet to do so. Imagination, the Bob Baffert horse will need to go gate to wire in order to win this race, and I don’t see him doing so in the mud with Mystik Dan and Catching Freedom. Finally Just Steel who ran awful in the Derby after sprinting out of the gate will look to rebound here to the form that gave him the best speed figure in the field two times back at the Arkansas Derby. He has thrown three duds out there in his racing career so the consistency hasn’t been there. Just Steel also got blown away by Mystik Dan in the slop at the Southwest finishing a distant second 8 lengths back after being only a 1/2 length back coming around the corner.
Here’s how I am betting the race now with the mud
Win Bets – (5) Mystik Dan $15, (3) Catching Freedom $6 – Total Investment $21 (I bet this before the line move this morning, bets should be closer in size if the odds are closer in size.
Exacta Bet – 3,5/ 3,5,7,8,9 $2 – Total Investment $16
No Trifecta for me. Just don’t feel there is much value
Super High Five – There was a carryover here from the BES so it’s worth throwing a few bucks around here. I’m Putting Mystik Dan up top and mixing in $12 worth of combos hoping to get lucky. – Total Investment $12
Late Pick 5 – I have a $99 ticket in play. Single the 10 in the 10th, and All in the 11th. Hit me up on Twitter @TheGreatKnoche for more information on it!
