The 2024 Belmont Stakes has a new look. As Belmont Park continues renovations, this race moves to Saratoga where it will be ran at a mile and 1/4 distance rather than the traditional mile and 1/2 at big sandy. We are at the end of the show (until the breeders cup that is), and we have a field of horses that are very solid, and in my opinion, one super star. Well, the super star is none other than Kentucky Derby runner up in “Sierra Leone” who may have won the race had he not got in a side to side battle with Japanese horse “Forever Young”. Sierra Leone is a Chad Brown horse who has good pedigree and has won three out of his fiver race with two second place finishes. As we know, we can’t cash big tickets easily on the favorite, so as I will use him on the top of most of my plays paired with Preakness Winner Seize the Grey. Not a lot of talk around this horse for this race yet, he has the most racing experience out of all of these horses. I also like the fact that this horse wasn’t fading at the end like Mystic Dan did in the Preakness. The 1 hole in this race has produced winners a top 19% of the time. The 10 horse “Mindframe” is the second favorite, and a deserving one based on pedigree and his amazingly strong finishes, but he has only run in two races without much competition. I will use him for a saver ticket but that is all. The two horse is interesting to me being that he has run a very fast speed figure of 104 Beyers at the Wood Memorial. I think that he could finish second. Here is my card. Hoping for a 1/2/6 or 7 type finish, but I’ll be happy with any profit.
Here we go with the final leg of the Triple Crown in the Belmont Stakes. The race has been moved to the “Spa” Saratoga raceway with Belmont still being under construction. This has changed the race to now being run at 1 1/4 miles versus the usual 1 1/2 mile affair. TV will be aired all day on FS1 and Fox which means we should get to see our buddy Chris “The Bear” Fallica on the broadcast. It looks like the weather should hold up tomorrow as rain chances are down to 25%, and hopefully they can keep this track in good condition if a storm does pop up during the afternoon.
Let’s take a look at the field.
1 Seize The Grey – D Wayne Lukas look to capture a third straight win with Preakness and Pat Day mile winner Seize the Grey. This horse got a nice trip in the Preakness out in front without much of a challenge from the other speed in the race. Got the drop on everyone and Mystik Dan couldn’t quite reel him in on that wet track. I don’t think the other speed in the Belmont is going to let him go solo to the lead in this contest, and I am concerned with the extra burst he’ll need to stay near the lead that he won’t hold up this time. If you watch the end of the Preakness he was certainly tiring as he drifted to the outside.
2 Resilience – This horse won his final Derby prep at the Wood Memorial where he added blinkers and put up a solid victory from just off the pace. In the Derby he made a strong move out wide from mid pack to get just off the lead coming around the turn before fading in the stretch. Bill Mott knows if this horse can get a clear inside run with a little less traffic this horse is good enough to make a move near the stretch. My only concern here is the distance after watching the fade in the Derby.
3 Mystik Dan – The Kentucky Derby winner has the most consistent record of high end speed ratings in the three year old season alongside the favorite Sierra Leone. For some reason he just couldn’t get the kick needed to track down Seize The Grey. The fact that this horse is running in this race after losing the Preakness tells me he’s in good form right now and ready to go as usually Derby winners and Preakness losers skip the Belmont. I believe he’ll be game in this race tucked in just behind the leaders and next to the 2 Resilience second off the rail. No reason to think he won’t be around the front coming toward the end.
4 The Wine Steward – This horse didn’t run any races in 2024 until the G3 Lexington in April where he put up a very fast rating losing to Encino by a length. He was one of three horses in the Belmont that ran in the G3 Peter Pan Stakes on May 11th and finished second fading in the stretch run. This will be the first time he stretches out to 10 Furlongs however and has won 3 races at 6F while coming in second in everything he has run over a mile so I don’t think this distance with the speed that will be out front sets up well for him.
5 Antiquarian – This is the horse that beat The Wine Steward in the Peter Pan. While showing well in that race he was no match in the stretch at the Louisiana Derby against some Kentucky Derby runners. That being said he had some issues in the gate at the LA Derby and maybe that cost him some during the race. I think the distance sets up much better for him than The Wine Steward and maybe if he can stay away from a really wide final turn he’ll have something left in the stretch run.
6 Dornoch – After beating Sierra Leone in December and a stellar start to his Derby prep season winning the Fountain of Youth, this horse has taken a step backwards in his last two contests. He is going to have two friends keeping him company at the front out the gate and Dornoch hasn’t won a race where he hasn’t been on the lead after the first 1/4 mile. I think the extra speed up front is going to cause an issue for him again unless he can get completely clear.
7 Protective – This horse has hit the board in his last two showings finishing third in the Peter Pan losing to Antiquarian, and third in the Wood Memorial losing to Resilience. In the Peter Pan he couldn’t get clear in the stretch or I think he could have won that race. He would need to take a step forward here to earn a victory, but I think the added distance could actually help him. At current prices I may mix him in on some exotics.
8 Honor Marie – Having not won since the two year old season Honor Marie will get a new jockey in Florent Geroux looking to improve on a disappointing Derby run. He got bumped hard coming out of the gate there and then couldn’t really get going until near the mid backstretch. Once able to run he had a nice showing, but certainly couldn’t recover. My major issue is I don’t think I this horse has improved much over the last five races and will certainly need to if he wants to win the Belmont.
9 Sierra Leone – The favorite for a reason. The winner of the Risen Star and The Bluegrass has only been beaten twice by a nose and both those horses are in this field. He couldn’t quite track down Mystik Dan in the Derby, but should have less issue with traffic here. Chad Brown is trying a new bit in this race to see if he can straighten him out in the stretch run as well.
10 Mindframe – This horse made me some money on Derby weekend and certainly has the talent to compete here. He has only run twice so far and both came against weak fields, but he didn’t mess around in either race winning them by over a combined 20 lengths. This will be his first time stretching out to this distance and first time facing real competition and early pace along side him.
The Race – Look for three horses to break early. The 1Seize The Grey, 6 Dornoch, and 10 Mindframeshould all be breaking for the lead. Mindframe should have plenty of time to get there from the outside with the whole front stretch before the first turn and that should help him, but he will likely be three wide hitting the first turn. I don’t think the 2 Resilience and 3 Mystik Dan will pull back too far and they should setup in the stalking group on the inside with the 4 The Wine Steward and the 5 Antiquarian. The wild card for me will be the 7 Protective who while sitting in stalking/closing position in most races has yet to win. I am curious if they’ll try and keep him tight to the 2 and 3 here instead of falling in behind that group. He closed 4 lengths on Resilience in the Wood Memorial in the final 1/4 mile so it’s possible he’ll challenge more early knowing there are stronger closers behind him in the 8 Honor Marie and 9 Sierra Leone. If the pace comes off as hot as advertised I think it spells trouble for all three horses at the front. With less traffic to worry about than the Kentucky Derby the strong horses sitting just off the pace should have the advantage as they get into the far turn and should reel them in, and I expect Mystik Dan and Resilience to pull up to them before they hit the stretch. It’s possible one of the leaders will have enough left to hang on getting onto the stretch, but I am not betting it that way. I think we’ll see 5 or 6 horses wide as they turn for home with Sierra Leone and Honor Marie either cutting through or making a wide bid for the lead. I think this race sets up better for the closers and stalkers and Honor Marie isn’t any match for Sierra Leone as a closer. Look for Sierra Leone to get the Triple Crown victory in this one.
Expected Finish Order – 9,2,3,10,7,5,8,4,1,6
My Bets
To Win – 9 Sierra Leone
Exacta – 9 Sierra Leone / 2 Resilience, 3 Mystik Dan, 10 Mindframe
Favorite Horse of the Weekend – Race 6 Suburban Stakes – 8 Bendoog – Something happened with the horse the last two races, if he improves again he’ll blow away this field, but he doesn’t need to improve to win. Single him up in some doubles and Pick 3s and try and make some money to invest in the Belmont.
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Blue Jays vs As +126 O/U 8
Today should be a fun day in Oakland. The wind is blowing out at about 10MPH to right center. Former Oakland Athletic Chris Bassitt takes the helm for the Blue Jays hoping to avenge those horrible years where the As were a last place team. Too bad that Chris Bassitt doesn’t realize that he was most likely part of the problem. This year, Bassitt has a rough 4.13 ERA and a 4.31 xERA for Toronto. His strikeout percentage is only 21.9%. For the As, lefty Hogan Harris takes the start and he is doing pretty well thus far after 245 total pitches. Harris boasts a 3.14 ERA and a 3.81 xERA. His K percentage is a nice 24.6%. As far as batting goes, I give the nod to Toronto as they rank 17th i wRC+ to Oakland at 21st, but the Bullpen screams the As as Toronoto ranks dead last in FIP for relief pitching. I think that this number is wrong on this game and I will take the As for + money.
We have a great show for you today! Patrick Gates @GatorBetting from The OddsBreakers is back to break down the 2024 Belmont Stakes! First, we get into the 2024 NFC East and West divisional previews! Which teams are coming in hot? Is there any value in the season win totals or future bets? Which teams made some big mistakes in the offseason and which had made their franchise better? Then, Patrick comes on and the guys get right into the 156th running of the Belmont Stakes! Where is this race being held at this year? What is the distance change? Which horses should be tossed off of our cards? Which horses are we keying on for the big race? Should you have any questions for the podcast, or games that you want us to cap during our shows, please message us at Info@TheOddsBreakers.com. Have a wonderful week!
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The 156th edition of the Belmont Stakes takes place on Saturday, June 8th.
Dating back to 1867, this prestigious event stands as one of America’s oldest horse races, marking the final leg of the Triple Crown series, succeeding the Kentucky Derby and the Preakness Stakes. The Belmont Stakes is steeped in tradition, from adorning the winning horse with a blanket of white carnations to the pre-race anthem rendition of “New York, New York.” It has witnessed historic moments like Secretariat’s legendary record-breaking victory in 1973 and recent Triple Crown victories by American Pharoah and Justify.
Traditionally held at Belmont Race Course over the mile and a half distance, changes have been made for the 2024 edition. The race will cover a slightly shorter distance of 1+1⁄4 miles due to the smaller dimensions of the Saratoga dirt track. New York State Governor Kathy Hochul announced on December 6, 2023, that the race would move to Saratoga Race Course due to ongoing construction at Belmont Park. Alongside this relocation, the purse of the race will swell to $2 million.
Further changes were revealed by the New York Racing Association in March 2024, indicating that the 2025 Belmont Stakes would also be relocated to Saratoga, pending regulatory approval.
For a deeper dive into the Belmont Stakes, don’t miss out on our recent podcast episode.
105k Maiden Special Weight (7/29/23): (1st) Seize the Grey, (2nd) Dornoch
Projected Race Setup:
Front Runners
(#1) SIEZE THE GREY
(#6) DORNOCH
(#10) MINDFRAME
Off the Pace
(#2) RESILIENCE
(#4) THE WINE STEWARD
(#5) ANTIQUARIAN
Middle of the Pact
(#3) MYSTIK DAN
Back of the Pact
(#7) PROTECTIVE
Closers
(#9) SIERRA LEONE
Picks:
This year’s Belmont Stakes boasts an exceptional field. Mystik Dan, victor of the Kentucky Derby, and Seize the Grey, triumphant in the Preakness Stakes, headline the lineup. Surprisingly, they are not the morning line favorites. Sierra Leone, who narrowly missed victory in the Kentucky Derby, holds the top spot in terms of odds. Following closely behind is Mindframe, despite having only two races under his belt, yet still emerging as a favorite.
The competition features a host of other formidable contenders. Resilience, winner of the Grade II Wood Memorial Stakes, enters the fray with impressive credentials. Antiquarian, who displayed remarkable prowess in the Grade III Peter Pan Stakes, emerges as a lively longshot. Completing the roster of contenders are Dornoch, victor of the Grade I Blue Grass Stakes, and Honor Marie, who secured a second-place finish in the Grade II Louisiana Derby.
The Wine Steward and Protective are two horses I consider less likely to contend for the win.
$10 WIN – #5 ANTIQUARIAN, #6 DORNOCH
TICKET COST $20.00
One of my long shots for this race is the number 5, Antiquarian. With only four starts to his name, Antiquarian broke his maiden in his second outing on a sloppy surface at Fair Grounds. Despite a setback in the Louisiana Derby, where he broke through the starting gate before the race, he showed resilience to stalk the pace and stay in contention until the homestretch, eventually tiring. However, he regained momentum in his latest outing, clinching victory in the Grade III Peter Pan Stakes. Notably, this race has produced four Belmont winners since 2010, including last year’s Arcangelo. While Antiquarian will need to enhance his speed figures on Saturday, his pedigree suggests the potential for success over this distance. Additionally, the fact that Todd Pletcher has secured victory in the Belmont four times adds further promise to this colt’s prospects.
My other long shot in this race is the number 6, Dornoch. Initiating his graded stakes campaign with triumphs in both the Grade II Remsen Stakes, where he defeated fellow entrant and morning line favorite Sierra Leone, and the Grade II Fountain of Youth Stakes, Dornoch showed early promise. However, in his subsequent outing, the Grade I Blue Grass Stakes, the pace proved too fast, hindering his performance. In the Kentucky Derby, Dornoch encountered difficulties from the start, struggling out of the gate and failing to execute the planned strategy. With a more favorable position in the Belmont, where Saez can adopt an aggressive approach in the early stages, Dornoch has the potential to excel. If he can secure a strong start and dictate the pace, I believe this horse stands a good chance of success.
$4 EXACTA – 10 / 1, 3, 5, 6, 9
TICKET COST $20.00
Another contender I’m eyeing for victory in this race is the number 10, Mindframe. Despite being the least experienced colt in the field, he has showcased impressive performances in his first two starts. Mindframe broke his maiden in a 7F sprint at Gulfstream Park in March, winning by over 13 lengths and posting a remarkable 103 Beyer speed figure. Transitioning to a mile and an eighth in his next outing, he triumphed in an Allowance Optional Claimer at Churchill Downs, winning by over seven lengths. While Mindframe faces a significant step up in class, his previous speed figures highlight his talent and potential for success in this race. The combination of jockey Irad Ortiz Jr. and trainer Todd Pletcher further enhances his chances. Rather than solely placing a win bet, I intend to utilize Mindframe in an exacta with other horses underneath to enhance potential returns.
For the exacta, I’m selecting Seize the Grey, Mystik Dan, Antiquarian, Dornoch, and Sierra Leone. Seize the Grey and Mystik Dan have demonstrated their impressive abilities with recent victories. I’ve already discussed the strengths of Antiquarian and Dornoch earlier. As for Sierra Leone, there’s speculation about whether the distance reduction from 1 1/2 miles to 1 1/4 miles will affect this closer positively or negatively. Flavien Prat will take over on the mount from Tyler Gaffalione so we may see him try to take a different approach with his horse. The Belmont hasn’t traditionally favored deep closers so I’m guessing he’ll try to emulate this horse’s first ride where he was positioned in the middle of the pack making it easier for him to close on the field down the stretch. I believe the decrease in distance hurts this horse limiting the additional quarter mile he had to close on the leader. While I fully expect him to hit the board, I think we see early speed prevail in the Belmont Stakes.
Longshot Superfecta:
$1 SUPERFECTA – 10 / 9 / 1, 3, 5, 6 / ALL
TICKET COST $28.00
If $28.00 is more than you’re comfortable spending on a Superfecta, you can also play this as a 50-cent Superfecta which would cut the ticket price in half.
TOTAL COST $40.00 ($68.00)
Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting. Any feedback whether positive or negative is always encouraged.
Even though the RBC Canadian Open didn’t have the same thrilling finish as in 2023, it still gave us a great story. Robert MacIntyre secured his first PGA Tour victory with his dad as his caddie.
Corey Conners was our closest outright finishing 6th four shots behind the winner. However, we did cash two of our placements Maverick McNealy T20 (+150) and Keith Mitchell T20 (+160). Overall we lost 0.06 units on the week.
Before we’ve even teed off, the storylines have already started…
The Memorial Tournament marks the seventh Signature Event on the 2024 PGA TOUR schedule.
Scottie Scheffler returns to action after finishing as the runner-up in his last start at the Charles Schwab Challenge. He has won four of his last seven tournaments and has only finished outside the top 10 once in twelve events this season. This will be Scheffler’s fourth appearance at Muirfield Village, where he finished 3rd in both 2021 and 2023.
Xander Schauffele, who won his first Major Championship at Valhalla last month, will be playing in his first tournament since that victory. He has competed in the Memorial Tournament six times, finishing inside the top 20 on four occasions.
Viktor Hovland, the defending champion of this event, is still searching for his first victory of the season. His last win on the PGA Tour was at last year’s TOUR Championship. Although he struggled earlier this season, he enters this week’s event following his best performance of the year, a 3rd place finish at the PGA Championship.
Patrick Cantlay, a two-time winner of this event, is aiming for his first PGA Tour victory since his triumph at the 2022 BMW Championship.
Auburn’s Jackson Koivun concluded his remarkable season by clinching the 2024 Division I Jack Nicklaus Award presented by Workday. In an unprecedented achievement, he became the first golfer ever to sweep all three national player of the year awards – the Haskins, the Hogan, and the Nicklaus – along with the Phil Mickelson Outstanding Freshman award in a single season. Despite finishing as the runner-up at the NCAA Championship, he is set to make his debut on the PGA TOUR at the Memorial.
This week’s Sponsor Invites include Billy Horschel, victor of the Corales Puntacana Championship earlier this year, Matt Kuchar, winner of this event in 2013, former FedExCUp champion Brandt Snedeker, and Alex Noren.
Cut: Top 50 and Ties + Any Player within 10 shots of the Lead – 36 Holes
Playoff Format: Sudden Death (18, 18, 10, 14 and 18 again repeatedly)
Historic Cut Line:
2023: +3
2022: +2
2021: +2
Scoring Average:
2023: 73.52 (+1.52), Rank 5 of 49
2022: 73.06 (+1.06), Rank 8 of 50
2021: 72.97 (+0.97), Rank 10 of 51
Course Architect:
Course Architect: Jack Nicklaus (1974)
Recent Renovations:
2024:
No. 16 – The tee box was moved 30 yards to the players’ right to straighten the hole and take the pond on the left out of play for well-played tee shots. A bunker at the right front corner of the green was removed and replaced by a slope.
2023:
Nos. 16 and 17 – Relocation of the Course Maintenance Compound created room for tee boxes to be moved back on each hole. The Tournament yardage increased on No. 16 to 220 yards and on No. 17 to 503 yards. The course’s total Tournament yardage increased to 7,571 yards.
2021:
The course underwent its most extensive renovation since it opened as greens were rebuilt, recontoured and resodded, tees, fairways and rough were regrassed, and bunkers were excavated and rebuilt with uniform depths of sand. The Tournament course was lengthened by 151 yards – to 7,543 – and more than 80 trees were planted to ensure for a proper succession over time as older trees decline and die.
No. 1 – Tees were moved forward and to the left to decrease the dogleg, a new green was built 17 yards behind the previous one, and fairway was added right of the green to feed balls to the green. Bunkers right of the fairway were moved left and closer to the green, making the carry over the last bunker 345 yards. Bunkers were built left and short right of the new green.
No. 2 – The Tournament tee was moved back 8 yards, and 5-10 feet of the front left portion of the green was removed to allow for a better view into the left greenside bunker.
No. 3 – Tees were moved to the right and down the hill to bring the creek more into play on the tee shot. Water also will be more in play on the approach because the bunker in front of the green was removed and the green shifted forward to the water’s edge. A fairway pad was added left of the green as a bailout.
No. 4 – The hole plays 10 yards longer than previously after the back bunker was removed and more green added. The green is now more than 150 feet long and the hole measures more than 230 yards. The green was recontoured to add pin positions on the right half of the green, nearer the bunkers.
No. 5 – The Tournament tee was shifted forward and left to decrease the dogleg. Beyond the landing area, the fairway was removed to discourage long hitters from trying to cut the dogleg with their tee shots. A smaller, more strategic green was built about 20 yards behind and left of the previous one to make bailout shots to the right more difficult. The hole plays 16 yards longer than previously.
No. 6 – A new fairway bunker complex was built to create a more challenging tee shot either over or between the new bunkers. A portion of the green was re-contoured to add potential pin areas.
No. 7 – The challenge of hitting the par-5 green in two was enhanced by several changes. The left fairway bunker farthest from the tee was moved more into the fairway, and a bunker was added right of the landing area, to reduce the margin for error on tee shots. The Tournament tee was moved back 7 yards, a new green was built 20 yards behind and left of the previous one, and four bunkers were placed left and right in front of the green. Fairway replaced a bunker behind the green to potentially bring a wooded ravine into play for shots hit over the green.
No. 8 – A new back tee was built to increase the length of the hole by 15 yards, and the pitch on the right side of the green was reduced to allow for pin positions closer to the bunker.
No. 9 – The right half of the previous back bunker was filled and 20 feet of green added. The pitch along the back of the green was reduced to create more pin areas.
No. 10 – Fairway bunkers were moved closer to the landing area for long hitters. A new, larger green was built to the left of the previous one and offers more pin areas.
No. 11 – The back tee was moved back 23 yards and the green was shifted about 20 feet to the left, allowing golfers to go for the green with their second shot without having to hit over trees along the right side of the hole.
No. 13 – More trees were added beyond the left fairway bunker to increase the risk for golfers playing their tee shot over the bunker to try to get a big kick down the fairway.
No. 15 – The tee was moved back 37 yards and the first landing area was lowered 15 feet and shifted left, bringing the creek on that side more into play. Bunkers were added to the right side of the first landing area to further squeeze the tee shot. The second landing area was regraded to be more receptive to layup shots. A hill right of the green was removed and a new section of green added back and right of the existing green, which will bring an expanded creek more into play on second and third shots. Two bunkers were built to separate the new section of green from the water.
No. 16 – The green was recontoured to be more receptive to tee shots. The hole ranked as the toughest in the Tournament six times in the 10 years after Nicklaus redesigned it before the 2011 Memorial.
No. 17 – The fairway was narrowed and all fairway bunkers rebuilt and repositioned so the hole better fit in with the character of the rest of the course. The green was recontoured to add pin area in the front half and so the back left now pitches toward the front rather than away from it.
No. 18 – Pitch was removed from the back and front of the green to add pin area to each. Shots hit to the back of the green no longer will automatically gravitate toward the Tournament’s traditional “Sunday pin.”
2020:
Nos. 8, 11 and 15 – New championship tees were built on the holes and increased the yardages of each. The 8th was lengthened by 25 yards, to 210. The 11th grew by 15 yards, to 582. The 15th added 30 yards, to 559. The changes increased the total length of the golf course to 7,462 yards.
Comparable Courses & Greens:
Comparable Courses:
Torrey Pines Golf Course – Farmers Insurance Open – RESULTS
Arnold Palmer’s Bay Hill Club & Lodge – Arnold Palmer Invitational – RESULTS
Established in 1976 by golf icon Jack Nicklaus, the Memorial Tournament was conceived to create a premier PGA Tour event that pays homage to the sport’s heritage while offering top-tier competition. Held at the Muirfield Village Golf Club in Dublin, Ohio, a course designed by Nicklaus himself, the inaugural tournament saw Roger Maltbie clinch victory in a thrilling sudden-death playoff against Hale Irwin. Thanks to Nicklaus’ vision and the course’s challenging yet picturesque layout, the event swiftly gained renown, drawing elite players from across the globe.
Throughout its storied history, the Memorial Tournament has upheld a tradition of honoring golf’s legends. Each year, the tournament pays tribute to a revered figure who has left an indelible mark on the sport, such as Bobby Jones, Ben Hogan, and Arnold Palmer. This cherished custom reflects the tournament’s dedication to preserving and revering golf’s illustrious legacy. Over the years, the tournament has witnessed numerous unforgettable moments, including Jack Nicklaus claiming victory in his own event in 1977 and Tiger Woods’ dominant reign, capturing the title five times between 1999 and 2012.
In 2024, the PGA TOUR Signature Events consist of eight limited-field tournaments featuring top players, offering increased prize money and FedExCup points (700 points to the winner). Previously referred to as “Designated Events” in 2023, these tournaments are typically invitational with a 120-player field. However, this year’s Memorial Tournament, which is one of these Signature Events, only includes 73 players.
Among the Signature Events are three player-hosted tournaments—The Genesis Invitational, Arnold Palmer presented by Mastercard, and the Memorial Tournament presented by Workday. These events have a 36-hole cut to the top 50 and ties, along with any player within 10 shots of the lead. Additionally, the player-hosted events feature redistributed prize money, with 20 percent awarded to the winner ($4 million), up from the previous 18 percent. The remaining five Signature Events will not have a cut and will continue to award 18 percent of the prize money to the winner.
Muirfield Village Golf Club stands as the realization of founder and designer Jack Nicklaus’ visionary ambition. Acquired in 1966, construction on the course commenced on July 28, 1972. Spanning 220 acres, including an expansive 11-acre practice range, the original 18 holes measured 6,678 yards but now extend to 7,569 yards.
Formally dedicated on May 27, 1974, the club saw its inaugural exhibition match between Nicklaus and Tom Weiskopf. Nicklaus’ impressive score of 66 set a course record that endured until 1979. The Columbus Pro-Am on August 11, 1975, marked the club’s first official event, preceding the debut of the Memorial Tournament in May 1976.
Situated in Dublin, Ohio, Muirfield Village Golf Club was conceptualized and crafted by Jack Nicklaus, a luminary in golf history. Inspired by Muirfield, Scotland, where he secured his inaugural Open Championship victory in 1966, Nicklaus aimed to fashion a premier golfing destination challenging to elite players yet enjoyable for all skill levels. With its meticulously designed layout, featuring undulating greens, strategic bunkers, and rolling terrain, Muirfield Village swiftly earned acclaim as a world-class course. Its distinction was further elevated upon becoming the esteemed host of the Memorial Tournament just two years after its inauguration.
Since its inception, Muirfield Village has continuously evolved to uphold its status as a premier golfing destination. Under the personal oversight of Jack Nicklaus, the course has undergone numerous renovations and updates, ensuring it remains relevant while staying true to its original essence.
Following the 2020 Memorial Tournament, Muirfield Village Golf Club closed its doors for a significant renovation. Every green complex underwent redesign, bunkers were enlarged and deepened, and some greens were relocated. Notable changes were implemented on the fifth and fifteenth holes, while the twelfth and fourteenth remained untouched. Nicklaus described this renovation as his “final bite at the apple,” suggesting it would be the last major overhaul during his lifetime.
Muirfield Village has hosted esteemed golf events, including the 1987 Ryder Cup and the 2013 Presidents Cup, further solidifying its place in golf history. Renowned for its commitment to excellence and as the proud host of the Memorial Tournament, Muirfield Village is revered in the golfing world for its challenging layout and picturesque landscape.
Most Tournament Wins:
5, Tiger Woods (1999, 2000, 2001, 2009, 2012)
72-Hole Record (Event):
268, Tom Lehman (1994)
18-Hole Record (Event):
61, John Huston (Round 2, 1996)
Course Guide/ Scorecard:
Originally crafted by Jack Nicklaus in 1974, Muirfield Village Golf Club features a Par 72 layout, comprising four Par 3s, ten Par 4s, and four Par 5s.
In terms of length, Muirfield Village Golf Club is one of the longer courses on the Tour measuring 7,569 yards.It ranks 5th out of 44 courses in length. The fairways are on the wider side, ranking 21st of 44, with the average fairway width being 32.0 yards. The average green size is roughly 5,000 square feet which is on the smaller side when compared to the other courses on the PGA Tour. Bunkers aren’t a factor here as there are only 68 which ranks as the 18th fewest of 44 courses.
The four Par 3’s range between 180 yards and 218 yards.In terms of stats, three of the Par 3’s range between 200-225 yards. In the last edition of this event, all of the Par 3’s had a scoring average over par.
No. 4, 210 Yards, Par 3: The first par 3 offers the same tee shot as before, with the only difference being that the green has been widened about three paces. The back bunker has been removed and the green now stretches farther back, so the tee shot plays significantly longer. This green went from one of the smallest on the golf course to arguably the largest. The pin variance will leave golfers playing a middle iron to a long iron into the back of the green. There are a couple of deep bunkers on the left, and those sort of protect the ball from getting away from the hole and into the steep drop-off. The bunkers on the right still offer a great challenge.
No. 8, 200 Yards, Par 3: The tee shot should be about a 6- or 7-iron for most of the players, maybe an 8-iron at times, depending on where the pin is located on the green. The problem before the latest renovation was that the old green was built on top of an older green. So we eliminated both versions and created a new green. At the same time, we rebuilt the bunker on the right. The build-up on the right side of that bunker made for an impossible shot at times. Now, the grade has dropped a little and makes for a much more playable bunker shot.
No. 12, 180 Yards, Par 3: Depending on the pin, the choice here is either a short iron into the left side of the two-tiered green or take one more club to find the right side of the green. Obviously, the tee shot must cover the large lake which also guards the right side as well. The back bunker is no bargain and is not a place you want to be.
No. 16, 218 Yards, Par 3: Patrons might not notice the difference in the 16th hole, but players certainly have. After we redesigned the hole prior to the 2013 Presidents Cup, it just didn’t play like I wanted or what the Memorial field liked. The green wouldn’t hold shots, especially on the back left. It turned out that the left side pitched away from you, and that should not have been the case. So, we took eight inches from the middle of the green and added eight inches to the left. Now, although golfers are using the same club as before, the green runs toward them and not away from them, and thus holds shots better.
There are ten Par 4’s at Muirfield Village Golf Club with the majority (six) of those holes ranging between 450 and 500 yards. No. 14 is the shortest Par 4 listed at 360 yards with the longest being No. 17, playing 503 yards. In terms of scoring average, the toughest Par 4 on the course last year was No. 18 (+0.398).
No. 3, 392 Yards, Par 4: We moved the tees on the third hole down the hill to the right about 20 yards to give you more of a look up the creek bed that runs up the left side of the hole and right to the green. Also, from the prior tee, you found yourself looking right into the houses on the right. The play off the tee is a long iron or 3-wood into position, although some players will play driver. The green has been enlarged a little, with the bunker on the right removed. The entire green now feeds into the water, although it is a little flatter and softer, especially in the middle, with more pin placements than before. On the approach shot, the right side of the green is now covered with water, so the left side of the green is obviously the preferred play.
No. 9, 417 Yards, Par 4: Most players in the field will hit a driver or 3-wood, depending on how aggressive a fellow wants to be off the tee. But it’s the approach where things have changed and get more interesting. We basically eliminated the back-left of the green, and at the same time we lengthened the green along the right playing down to the water. We changed the back right bunker—almost cutting it in half—so we could add some space to provide another pin placement farther right on the green. With the left of the green reduced, we don’t have as many pin locations as we used to, but we have a few nice cupping options on the front of the green, near the water. The same elements come into play—you have the water front and right of the green, and an awkward chip from the back running toward the water.
No. 14, 360 Yards, Par 4: I believe this is one of the best short par-4s in the game of golf. Because of that, we made no changes whatsoever in the design. It is still a drivable par 4, if the player so chooses, but the penalties are obviously severe. Most would play a long iron off the tee, and a 9-iron or wedge into the green. The penalties are obvious, with the potential of missing into the water up the right or putting the ball into the bunkers on the left, which means you’re left with a very difficult up and down. It’s truly a fun hole to play.
No. 18, 480 Yards, Par 4: The 18th hole, a strong dogleg right, has the same tee shot, with most of the players going with 3-wood and leaving themselves a middle to short iron into the green, but they have to avoid the creek on the left and bunkers at the corner of the dogleg on the right. Before the renovation, we had only one pin position on the back left of the green. So, we softened that area and lengthened it out with less pitch, so the ball doesn’t run up there and just come back.
There are four Par 5’s at Muirfield Village Golf Club, No. 5, No. 7, No. 11 & No. 15. They all played under par in 2023, despite being some of the longer par 5’s on Tour. The easiest hole on the course last year was No. 15 with a scoring average of 4.539.
No. 5, 547 Yards, Par 5: The fifth hole is actually shorter than before. After moving the tee down and to the left, we knocked down the hill on the right for better visibility off the tee. The creek still splits the hole, forcing a decision off the tee. I would say that 95 percent of the players—maybe even more—will hit the ball down the fairway on the left side, probably with a 3-wood. There will be the occasional player who will try to take it over the water, leaving himself with a short iron into the green. Have at it! It is there for the taking, if you want it, but the penalty is severe. The green, which has been moved back 30 yards and to the left, is a bit smaller and narrower and is protected by a bunker front left and two little ones on the right. The more aggressive you get, the tougher the third shot. If you lay it back for a wedge third shot, you are looking right up the green. If you try to get a little more aggressive and get up closer to the green, it could be good, but if you go long, the pitch is over a bunker to a green running towards the water.
No. 7, 582 Yards, Par 5: The tee shot is the same, though we added 5-6 yards, and demands a drive in between the four fairway bunkers. The green has been moved back and left and has a little bit more undulation in it. The same opening exists in the front, but you have an up-and-over putt to the left side of the green. Some fairway has been added to the back side of the green, so if a ball is hit too far, rather than just sit in rough just behind the green it will instead roll down a slope into a fairway pad. I think it is bit more fun to play, though perhaps a little more difficult.
No. 11, 588 Yards, Par 5: Players face the same tee shot, with the creek on the left and bunker on the right. If you fit a driver between the two and hit it long, you can get home in two. If you want to play it as a three-shot par 5, the players might go hybrid, iron and wedge into the green. The green was moved to the left to avoid the trees on the right. Before the renovation, the trees would hang out there, and players would sometimes have to slice a shot into the green, which isn’t the play that should be required. The green is more of a bowl, meaning if you miss it long or to the right, the chip is a little more severe coming down the hill into the green. Hit the green in two, and there are a lot more opportunities for eagles here.
No. 15, 561 Yards, Par 5: We made major changes during the renovation, and, thus, changes the way the hole is played. We took the fairway, dropped it about 20 feet, and moved it left to bring the creek bed on the left side into play. We added four bunkers on the right to take up the elevation change and provide transition from the trees on the right down to the fairway. Although the second shot from the fairway is pretty much the same, you can see where your shot could land if you lay up and then how you can play into the green. The green has been dropped a bit and moved to the right. The water hazard at the front of the green has been expanded on the right side, with two little bunkers between the water and the green. But if your ball misses the green to the right, it should find the water hazard. It is a tough chip from the left or behind the green. We will see a lot of eagle and birdie chances here, but also a fair amount of 6s and 7s.
Featured/ Signature Hole(s): 12, 16, 18
For a hole-by-hole overview of the course, you can click the following link.
Key Statistics:
Statistics
PGA Tour Average
Muirfield Village Golf Club
Driving Distance (Yards)
283.58
281.83
Driving Accuracy
62%
68%
GIR Percentage
66%
61%
Avg GIR Prox to Hole (Feet)
29.25
26.00
Scrambling Percentage
58%
53%
Avg 3 Putts / Round
0.55
0.52
Per DataGolf, this is the favoured skillset at Muirfield Village Golf Club.
Strokes Gained: Off the Tee
Success this week will hinge on players’ ability to position themselves effectively off the tee. While the course’s considerable length underscores the significance of distance, precision holds equal importance. Each of the past five winners ranked 10th or better in SG: Off the Tee amongst the field.
Leaders in this category in the last 24 Rounds:
Scottie Scheffler
Xander Schauffele
Jordan Spieth
Ludvig Aberg
Collin Morikawa
Rory McIlroy
Viktor Hovland
Wyndham Clark
Sungjae Im
Shane Lowry
Strokes Gained: Approach
Having a strong iron game will be important this week if players want to succeed at Muirfield Village Golf Club. Four of the past five winners ranked 12th or better in SG: Approach amongst the field.
Leaders in this category in the last 24 Rounds:
Scottie Scheffler
Corey Conners
Rory McIlroy
Akshay Bhatia
Si Woo Kim
Xander Schauffele
Russell Henley
Seamus Power
Sahith Theegala
Justin Thomas
Strokes Gained: Around the Green
The average green size at Muirfield Village Golf Club is 5,000 sq. ft., much smaller than the PGA Tour average. Players will undoubtedly miss greens this week so they’ll need to rely on their short game.Four of the past five winners ranked 5th or better in SG: Around the Green amongst the field.
Leaders in this category in the last 24 Rounds:
Hideki Matsuyama
Collin Morikawa
Alex Noren
Denny McCarthy
Tommy Fleetwood
Scottie Scheffler
Lucas Glover
Si Woo Kim
Taylor Moore
Christiaan Bezuidenhout
Good Drives Gained
Leaders in this category in the last 24 Rounds:
Collin Morikawa
Tony Finau
Sepp Straka
Lucas Glover
Scottie Scheffler
Austin Eckroast
Tommy Fleetwood
Tom Hoge
Xander Schauffele
Shane Lowry
Strokes Gained: Putting (Bentgrass)
The green complexes at Muirfield Village Golf Club are Bentgrass .090”.
Leaders in this category in the last 24 Rounds:
Denny McCarthy
J.T. Poston
Viktor Hovland
Matt Fitzpatrick
Harris English
Justin Rose
Max Homa
Keegan Bradley
Wyndham Clark
Sahith Theegala
Par 3 Scoring: 200-225 Yards (x3)
Three of the four Par 3’s at Muirfield Village Golf Club range between 200-225 Yards.
Leaders in this category in the last 24 Rounds:
Ludvig Aberg
Harris English
Viktor Hovland
Akshay Bhatia
Russell Henley
Tom Kim
Adam Schenk
Emiliano Grillo
Xander Schauffele
Thomas Detry
Par 4 Scoring: 450-500 Yards (x6)
Six of the ten Par 4’s at Muirfield Village Golf Club range between 450-500 Yards.
Leaders in Par 4 Scoring 400-450 Yards in the last 24 Rounds:
Rory McIlroy
Tom Hoge
Scottie Scheffler
Xander Schauffele
Viktor Hovland
Lucas Glover
Ludvig Aberg
Hideki Matsuyama
Collin Morikawa
Jordan Speith
Par 5 Scoring: 550-600 Yards (x3)
Three of the four Par 5’s at Muirfield Village Golf Club range between 550-600 Yards.
Scottie Scheffler
Rory McIlroy
Thomas Detry
Xander Schauffele
Billy Horschel
Cam Davis
Taylor Moore
Nick Dunlap
Justin Thomas
Cameron Young
Bogey AvoidanceGained
Muirfield Village Golf Club ranks among the most challenging courses on the PGA Tour. Patience will be key this week as players navigate the layout and capitalize on limited scoring chances. Throughout the event, players must strive to minimize any black numbers scores on their cards.
Leaders in this category in the last 24 Rounds:
Scottie Scheffler
Xander Schauffele
Rory McIlroy
Tommy Fleetwood
Hideki Matsuyama
Denny McCarthy
Sepp Straka
Alex Noren
Ludvig Aberg
Ben Griffin
Proximity Gained: 200+ Yards
Below is the approach shot distribution chart from last year’s event (via DataGolf). Most approach shots come from the 200+ yard range at a volume much higher than the PGA Tour average.
Leaders in Proximity Gained: 200+ Yards in the last 24 Rounds:
Xander Schauffele
Akshay Bhatia
Hideki Matsuyama
Patrick Cantlay
Max Homa
Byeong Hun An
Kurt Kitayama
Lee Hodges
Matt Fitzpatrick
Rory McIlroy
Comparable Courses and Event History
Looking at the Data Golf Course History Tool, prior experience at the Muirfield Village Golf Club has proven to be advantageous.
Leaders in this category in the last (Multiple Events Played):
Patrick Cantlay (SG: Total – 56.62)
Jordan Spieth (SG: Total – 39.62)
Si Woo Kim (SG: Total – 35.67)
Xander Schauffele (SG: Total – 34.62)
Scottie Scheffler (SG: Total – 32.98)
Rory McIlroy (SG: Total – 23.75)
Max Homa (SG: Total – 21.67)
Denny McCarthy (SG: Total – 19.81)
Shane Lowry (SG: Total – 18.79)
Rickie Fowler (SG: Total – 18.03)
The Field:
This year’s Memorial Tournament will feature a total of 73 competitors.
Here is the current basis of qualification for each entrant this week:
Top 50 players from the 2022-2023 FedExCup Playoffs and Eligibility Points List (50)
The top 50 players from the prior season’s FedExCup points list through the TOUR Championship are eligible for all Signature Events during the current season.
Next 10 – 10 highest ranking players from the current season’s FedExCup Points List (not already exempt above)
The Aon Next 10 includes the top 10 players on the current FedExCup point list, not otherwise exempt via a higher priority category, through the tournament before the next Signature Event.
Swing 5 – Five players earning the most FedExCup points in the swing of events (Charles Schwab Challenge & RBC Canadian Open)
The Aon Swing 5 includes the top five FedExCup point earners who accumulate the most FedExCup Points during the swing of tournaments between Signature Events.
The top five players that accrue the most points during the swing of events between Signature Events, and who are not otherwise exempt via a higher priority category, are eligible via this category.
Tournament winners of full-field events (if not already captured above)
Players who win a PGA TOUR tournament during the current year (excluding Additional Events) are eligible to participate in the remaining Signature Events that year, if not otherwise exempt via a higher priority category. (i.e., Aon Next 10 or Aon Swing 5)
Four (4) Sponsor Exemptions
Each Signature Event has a certain amount of sponsor exemptions they can grant to players who are not otherwise eligible. Sponsor exemptions are earmarked for PGA TOUR members.
One (1) exemption for the Jack Nicklaus Award Winner—2024 Division I Collegiate Player of the Year
Any PGA TOUR Member in the top 30 of the Official World Golf Ranking (if not already captured above)
The Next 10 / Swing 5 / OWGR players will fill in on Monday of Tournament week.
Previous Winners in the Field (Event):
Viktor Hovland (’23), Billy Horschel (’22), Patrick Cantlay (’21, ’19), Hideki Matsuyama (’14), Matt Kuchar (’13), Justin Rose (’10)
Debutants in the Field (Event):
Jackson Koivun, Jake Knapp, Ludvig Aberg, Matthieu Pavon, Nick Dunlap
Players with ties to Ohio in the Field:
College:
Corey Conners – Kent State
Mackenzie Hughes – Kent State
Taylor Pendrith – Kent State
Notable Withdraws/ Changes:
IN: Jackson Koivun (Nicklaus Award Spot)
IN: Alex Noren (Sponsor)
WD: Robert MacIntyre -> IN: Davis Thompson (Aon Swing 5)
To see the full field for this event and how they qualified, you can click the following link.
The Odds:
Here are the current favorites in this week’s event and a summary of their recent form and course history.
Scottie Scheffler (+360) has dominated the PGA Tour recently, claiming victory in four of his last seven starts. His recent performances include a T8 finish at the PGA Championship and a T2 finish at the Charles Schwab Challenge. Having participated in this event three times before, he secured 3rd place finishes in both 2021 and 2023.
Rory McIlroy (+800) displayed solid form with a T4 finish at the RBC Canadian Open. Prior to that, he won two out of his last three starts on the PGA Tour. McIlroy boasts an impressive track record at the Memorial Tournament, making his thirteenth appearance and finishing inside the top 20 on eight occasions.
Xander Schauffele (+900) secured his first Major Championship victory at Valhalla last month. Returning to action after this milestone win, Schauffele has notched eight top-10 finishes throughout his career. In the Memorial Tournament, he has participated six times, securing top-20 finishes on four occasions.
Collin Morikawa (+1400) has showcased stellar performances lately, finishing T4 at the PGA Championship and 4th at the Charles Schwab Challenge. This marks Morikawa’s fifth appearance in the Memorial Tournament, with his best result coming in 2021, where he lost in a playoff to Patrick Cantlay.
Viktor Hovland (+1800) enters as the defending champion of this event. Despite not securing a victory on the PGA Tour this season after winning the TOUR Championship last season, Hovland exhibited improved form recently, finishing 3rd at the PGA Championship.
Ludvig Aberg (+1800) will make his tournament debut this week. While he came close to victory in several events this season, including runner-up finishes at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am and the Masters Tournament, Aberg faced challenges in his last start, missing the cut at the PGA Championship. He was battling a knee injury and has taken some time off for recovery so we’ll see how he looks this week.
Patrick Cantlay (+2500) has won this event twice, in 2019 and 2021. Despite struggling this season with only two top-10 finishes, Cantlay remains a contender in the Memorial Tournament.
Justin Thomas (+2500) has shown promising form in recent events, finishing T5 at the RBC Heritage, T21 at the Wells Fargo Championship, and T8 at the PGA Championship. This will be Thomas’ tenth appearance in the Memorial Tournament with his best finishing coming in 2017 where he finished T4.
To see the most up-to-date odds, you can click the following link.
The winning score of the Memorial Tournament has been below 276.5 (-11.5) for three of the past five years. However, last year when Viktor Hovland won, the winning score was 281.
To place a bet at Superbook on the Projected Final Score of the Winner, you can click the following link.
Playoff Props:
Will There Be A Playoff? (Yes +300 / No -400)
Since 2014, the Memorial has ended in a playoff seven times (2023, 2021, 2018, 2016, 2015, and 2014).
To place a bet at DraftKings on the Playoff Prop, you can click the following link.
Hole-in-One:
Will There Be A Hole-in-One? (Yes +130 / No -165)
Last year, there were no holes-in-ones. In 2022, there was one hole-in-one which was on No. 16.
To place a bet at BetMGM on the Hole-in-One Prop, you can click the following link.
Facts and Figures:
Six of the past seven winners had finished T5 or better in one of their five previous starts (except Patrick Cantlay in 2021)
Nine of the last ten winners had played in this event at least once before winning (except Hideki Matsuyama in 2014)
Recent Horses for Courses (Event):
the Memorial Tournament
the Memorial Tournament
the Memorial Tournament
the Memorial Tournament
the Memorial Tournament
Muirfield Village Golf Club
Muirfield Village Golf Club
Muirfield Village Golf Club
Muirfield Village Golf Club
Muirfield Village Golf Club
EventsPlayed
2023
2022
2021
2020
2019
Patrick Cantlay
7
T30
T3
WON
T32
WON
Jordan Spieth
11
T5
T18
T18
T13
T7
Si Woo Kim
8
4
T13
T9
T18
T41
Xander Schauffele
6
T24
T18
T11
T13
T14
Scottie Scheffler
4
3
–
3
T22
–
Recent Donkeys for Courses (Event):
the Memorial Tournament
the Memorial Tournament
the Memorial Tournament
the Memorial Tournament
the Memorial Tournament
Muirfield Village Golf Club
Muirfield Village Golf Club
Muirfield Village Golf Club
Muirfield Village Golf Club
Muirfield Village Golf Club
EventsPlayed
2023
2022
2021
2020
2019
Tom Hoge
5
65
MC
MC
MC
–
Peter Malnati
5
MC
MC
MC
–
T17
Cameron Davis
4
MC
T53
MC
–
–
Kurt Kitayama
2
MC
MC
–
–
–
Previous Winners Scores, Prices, and Strokes Gained (Rank at Tournament):
2023: Viktor Hovland (-7)
Price:20-1
SG: Off the Tee
SG: Tee to Green
SG: Approach
SG: Around the Green
SG: Putting
Viktor Hovland
10th
12th
26th
31st
3rd
2022: Billy Horschel (-13)
Price: 60-1
SG: Off the Tee
SG: Tee to Green
SG: Approach
SG: Around the Green
SG: Putting
Billy Horschel
7th
1st
12th
3rd
13th
2021: Patrick Cantlay (-13)
Price: 22-1
SG: Off the Tee
SG: Tee to Green
SG: Approach
SG: Around the Green
SG: Putting
Patrick Cantlay
3rd
1st
5th
3rd
19th
2020: Jon Rahm (-9)
Price: 22-1
SG: Off the Tee
SG: Tee to Green
SG: Approach
SG: Around the Green
SG: Putting
Jon Rahm
5th
1st
8th
1st
28th
2019: Patrick Cantlay (-19)
Price: 18-1
SG: Off the Tee
SG: Tee to Green
SG: Approach
SG: Around the Green
SG: Putting
Patrick Cantlay
8th
2nd
5th
5th
8th
Previous Winners Incoming Form (Last 5 Starts):
2023: Viktor Hovland
T16 – Charles Schwab Challenge (PGA)
T2 – PGA Championship (MAJ)
T43 – Wells Fargo Championship (PGA)
T59 – RBC Heritage (PGA)
T7 – Masters Tournament (MAJ)
2022: Billy Horschel
MC – Charles Schwab Challenge (PGA)
68 – PGA Championship (MAJ)
2 – Zurich Classic (PGA)
T21 – RBC Heritage (PGA)
43 – The Masters (MAJ)
2021: Patrick Cantlay
T23 – PGA Championship (MAJ)
MC – Wells Fargo Championship (PGA)
T11 – Zurich Classic of New Orleans (PGA)
MC – RBC Heritage (PGA)
MC – The Masters (MAJ)
2020: Jon Rahm
T27 – Workday Charity Open (PGA)
T37 – Travelers Championship (PGA)
T33 – RBC Heritage (PGA)
MC – Charles Schwab Challenge (PGA)
CANCELLED – THE PLAYERS Championship (PGA)
T3 – WGC-Mexico Championship (PGA)
2019: Patrick Cantlay
T3 – PGA Championship (MAJ)
MC – Zurich Classic of New Orleans (PGA)
T3 – RBC Heritage (PGA)
T9 – The Masters (MAJ)
T24 – WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play (PGA)
Previous Winners Finishes at Event:
2023: Viktor Hovland
2022
2021
2020
the Memorial Tournament
the Memorial Tournament
the Memorial Tournament
Muirfield Village Golf Club
Muirfield Village Golf Club
Muirfield Village Golf Club
Patrick Cantlay
T51
T47
T48
2022: Billy Horschel
2021
2020
2019
2018
2017
2015
2014
2013
the Memorial Tournament
the Memorial Tournament
the Memorial Tournament
the Memorial Tournament
the Memorial Tournament
the Memorial Tournament
the Memorial Tournament
the Memorial Tournament
Muirfield Village Golf Club
Muirfield Village Golf Club
Muirfield Village Golf Club
Muirfield Village Golf Club
Muirfield Village Golf Club
Muirfield Village Golf Club
Muirfield Village Golf Club
Muirfield Village Golf Club
Billy Horschel
67
T13
T9
MC
MC
T11
T15
T41
2021: Patrick Cantlay
2020
2019
2018
2017
the Memorial Tournament
the Memorial Tournament
the Memorial Tournament
the Memorial Tournament
Muirfield Village Golf Club
Muirfield Village Golf Club
Muirfield Village Golf Club
Muirfield Village Golf Club
Patrick Cantlay
T32
WON
4
T35
2020: Jon Rahm
2017
the Memorial Tournament
Muirfield Village Golf Club
Jon Rahm
MC
2019: Patrick Cantlay
2018
2017
the Memorial Tournament
the Memorial Tournament
Muirfield Village Golf Club
Muirfield Village Golf Club
Patrick Cantlay
4
T35
Picks (Outrights):
Collin Morikawa (+1400) – DraftKings
Risk 0.58 to win 8.12 Units
Justin Thomas (+3000) – DraftKings
Risk 0.27 to win 8.10 Units
Max Homa (+5500) – FanDuel
Risk 0.15 to win 8.25 Units
Sam Burns (+5500) – FanDuel
Risk 0.15 to win 8.25 Units
Sepp Straka (+7000) – FanDuel
Risk 0.12 to win 8.40 Units
Total Risk on Outrights: 1.27 Units
Picks (Top 20):
Russell Henley (+110) – BetMGM
Risk 1.00 to win 1.10 Units
Russell Henley secured his fourth PGA Tour victory last year at the World Wide Technology Championship, ending a five-year dry spell since his last win at the 2017 Shell Houston Open. Throughout this season, he has showcased consistent performance with several top-five finishes, entering this week’s event in strong form, having finished T23 or better in each of his last three starts. Notably, earlier this year at Bay Hill, a course comparable to Muirfield Village, Henley secured a T4 finish.
This marks Henley’s eighth appearance at Muirfield Village, with his most notable performance occurring during his tournament debut in 2013, where he finished T6. Although he encountered difficulties in subsequent visits, missing the cut three times in five trips, last season saw Henley deliver a solid performance, finishing T16 in the Memorial Tournament.
Henley’s skill set aligns well with the demands of this course. His precise iron play and adept short game have been particularly commendable in recent events. While he may not boast significant distance off the tee, his accuracy provides a strategic advantage, especially on this course. With his current form, skill set, and prior success at Muirfield, Henley is poised to secure a spot inside the top 20 this week.
Byeong Hin An (+138) – BetMGM
Risk 1.00 to win 1.38 Units
Byeong Hun-An has been on the cusp of victory at Muirfield Village, narrowly losing in a playoff to Bryson DeChambeau in 2015. Across his eight previous appearances in Dublin, Ohio, An boasts five top-25 finishes at this renowned venue. Despite encountering challenges with his putting last season, resulting in a T24 finish in this event, An arrives this week in stellar form, securing top-5 finishes in two of his last three events. While he faced some struggles in his most recent start at the PGA Championship, finishing T43, the characteristics of this week’s course should complement his exceptional ball-striking ability.
Lee Hodges (+275) – BetMGM
Risk 1.00 to win 2.75 Units
Lee Hodges arrives at this week’s event in impressive form, with recent finishes of T24 (Wells Fargo Championship), T12 (PGA Championship), and T12 (Charles Schwab Challenge) in his last three starts. Making his second appearance at Muirfield Village, Hodges debuted in the tournament last season, securing a T12 finish. His skill set aligns well with the demands of this course, particularly his strong play off the tee and on approach shots. While putting has posed challenges for him in the past, Hodges has shown improvement in this aspect, gaining strokes in putting in each of his last three starts. Additionally, his short game has seen enhancements, further enhancing his prospects for success this week.
Total Risk on Top 20s: 3.00 Units
Nationality Prop (Top Englishman):
Matthew Fitzpatrick (+175) – DraftKings
Risk 1.00 to win 1.75 Units
Tommy Fleetwood has been enjoying a solid streak since the Masters, with no finish outside the top 30 in his last three starts. Despite this recent form, he has struggled in his two prior appearances at the Memorial Tournament, missing the cut both times. Notably, Fleetwood’s last participation in this event was in 2017, predating the major renovation undertaken four years ago.
Justin Rose endured a challenging stretch, missing three consecutive cuts from the Arnold Palmer Invitational to the Masters. However, he has shown signs of a resurgence, making the cut in his last four events, with a T6 finish at the PGA Championship being the standout performance. Although Rose clinched victory in this event in 2010, his recent results at Muirfield Village have been less promising, with a missed cut in his last appearance in 2020.
Matthew Fitzpatrick emerges as a strong contender this week. Despite an inconsistent season, hindered by a neck injury, he appears to be fully recovered. Fitzpatrick has competed in the Memorial Tournament five times before, achieving his best result in 2020 with a 3rd place finish. Additionally, he demonstrated resilience with a T9 finish at Muirfield Village last season after missing the cut at the PGA Championship, a scenario mirrored this week. Fitzpatrick’s well-rounded skill set suits the course, particularly his proficiency on Bermudagrass greens and adept long iron play, which should be advantageous on the elongated course layout. While he has faced challenges with putting in the past, his comfort on Bermudagrass greens offers optimism for his performance this week.
Total Risk on Props: 1.00 Units
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NFC South: The NFC South was a game of Yahtzee as I mentioned last year. The two most common bets were the Falcons to make the playoffs and the Saints to win the division. Neither happened of course as the Buccaneers and Baker Mayfield had stolen the show. This year, the Falcons decided to get a quarterback and a new coach which propelled them to be favorites to win this division. I am not entirely convinced. The NFC South plays the NFC East and the AFC West for their 2024 schedules. I would call that pretty easy as the bottom teams of both of these conferences are painfully bad at playing football. Not to say that this conference is all that good either, I think that there could be a few surprises this year. Let’s dig in.
Schedule: Medium – At large games @Detroit, vs Baltimore, vs San Francisco
Schedule Last Year: Medium Easy
Key losses: OC Dave Canales, Edge Shaquil Barret, LB Devin White, G Nick Leverett, SS Ryan Neal
Key additions: S Jordan Whitehead, G Ben Bredson
Key draft picks: T Graham Barton, Edge Chris Braswell, S Tykee Smith, WR Jalen McMillan
Summary: I never had a ton of respect for Todd Bowles until last year. The team with the worst odds to win the division was the Buccaneers, and they pulled it off at 8-1. Not only that, they smacked the Eagles right in the mouth during their first playoff game. Baker Mayfield has proven that he can start in the NFL, and having guys like WR Mike Evans and TE Cade Otten certainly helped his cause. In saying all of this, Tampa bay was a very average team in a weak division. They did one thing good and one thing bad on both sides of the ball. On offense they ranked 8th in pass EPA, but only 27th in rush EPA. On defense, nose tackle Vita Vea was injured for a spell, but when he came back, the rush defense was fantastic finishing at 5th in rush EPA, yet against the pass only 22nd in pass EPA. For the 2024 season, the Bucs are once again fortunate to be in the NFC South, yet they do get the 1st place at large games. I like how this team shed some of the older players, yet they are still somewhat of an older team especially on defense. The biggest loss might be offensive coordinator Dave Canales to Carolina. Liem Coen replaces Canales. He has some good experience with the LA Rams under Sean McVay. Just a lot of wait and see here, and I would rather bet the Buccaneers to make the playoffs or win the division instead of the win total over.
My number is: 8.86 wins
Action: No Play but might bet them to win the division or make the playoffs.
Tampa Bay’s Power Rating: 1
2. Atlanta Falcons –
Vegas Win total: 9.5 juiced to the under -135
2023 Wins: 7
Pythagorean Wins: 7.67
Schedule: Easy – At large games vs Pittsburgh, vs Seattle, @ Minnesota
Schedule Last Year: Easy
Key losses: Coach Arthur Smith, TE Jonnu Smith, RB Cordarrell Patterson, Edge Bud Dupree, CB Jeff Okudah, C Matt Hennessy, DE Calais Campbell
Key additions: Coach Raheem Morris, OC Zac Robinson, QB Kirk Cousins, DE Darnell Mooney, TE Charlie Woerner,
Key draft picks: QB Michael Penix, DL Ruke Ohorhoro and a bunch of prayers.
Summary: It’s hard to not be angry with this team. The dirty birds had everything handed to them last year minus a coach with a brain and an NFL quarterback. This year, the front office might have taken care of some of that with the signing of Kirk Cousins at quarterback and bringing in a new coach in Raheem Morris. Am I confident? No, not really. Morris had a stint coaching before in the NFL that became a total disaster. In other news, there is another guy in this division coming from the Sean McVay tree in Zac Robinson as offensive coordinator. Man, I really need to get a Job under Sean McVay! Anyways, It is hard to predict how this team will do with all of the changes. All of the dinking and dunking in a bad division boosted this team up to 22nd in Pass EPA, but did horrible rushing the ball only ranking 28th in Rush EPA with Bijan Robinson. Defenses figured out to stack the box against this poor offense. The Falcons in the offseason only picked up a few guys, but the biggest boneheaded move was to draft a 24 year old quarterback with the 8th pick in the draft in Michael Penix. Why draft an older guy when you just signed someone for four years? The Falcons were great against the run ranking 1st in defensive rush EPA, but they were not good against the pass ranking 22nd in defensive pass EPA. They had the easiest schedule last year and couldn’t even muster up 8 wins. This year, the Falcons get by far the easiest schedule again, and this is why I cannot fade this team. 9.84 wins is my number, but I still have them slightly below average in my power ratings to start the season.
My Number: 9.84
Atlanta’s Power Rating: -.5
Action: None
3. New Orleans Saints –
Vegas Win Total: 7.5 Juiced Towards the over -120
2023 Wins: 9
Pythagorean Wins: 10
Schedule: Medium Easy – At large games vs Cleveland, vs LA Rams, @ Green Bay
Schedule Last Year: Easy
Key Losses: OC Pete Carmichael Jr, DE Malcolm Roach, QB Jameis Winston, G Andrus Peat, CB Lonnie Johnson, DT PJ Mustipher, CB Isaac Yiadom, LB Zach Baun.
Key additions: OC Klint Kubiak, DE Chase Young, WR Dedrick Wilson, ILB Willie Gay, T Oli Udoh, G Lucas Patrick.
Key draft picks: T Taliese Fuaga, CB Kool-Aid McKinstry, QB Spencer Rattler, LB Jaylan Ford
Summary: The Saints were another team that had some underachievers. Last season, this team somehow missed the playoffs while racking up nine wins. They benefitted greatly from a super easy schedule, yet faltered whenever they played a team with a pulse. I do like that they finished their season winning four out of five games. For 2024, this team has a pretty easy schedule minus a net-rest disadvantage of -10 days. Perhaps, the biggest change for this team was to fire their offensive coordinator Pete Carmichael Jr. who has been with the team for 18 years. He slithered back to Sean Payton in Denver as an offensive assistant. The bringing in of Klint Kubiak as the new OC might be an improvement, and especially if he has learned anything last season from Kyle Shanahan as his passing game coordinator. The Saints had a Pythagorean win total of 10 last year and should have taken the division. I feel like a broken record saying that, but their win total of 7.5 should be achievable this season. The biggest worry continues to be the quarterback position with Derek Carr, but he might be at least good enough to get this team into the playoffs in a weak division for 2024. I am going to start this team off as average and go from there, but I like them up to 9 wins and should go over that win total.
My number is: 9 wins
Action: Over 7.5 wins can be found for -120 if you shop.
New Orleans Power Rating: 0
4. Carolina Panthers –
Vegas Win Total: 5.5 juiced to the over -115
2023 Wins: 2
Pythagorean Wins: 3.92
Schedule: Medium Easy – At large games vs Cincinnati, @ Chicago, vs Arizona
Schedule Last Year: Medium Easy
Key losses: Coach Frank Reich, DE Brian Burns, LB Frankie Luvu, DE Yetur Gross-Matos, CB Shaquill Griffin, S Jeremy Chin, WR DJ Chark, CB CJ Henderson.
Key additions: Coach Dave Canales, OC Brad Idzik, G Robert Hunt, G Damien Lewis, DE A’Shawn Robinson, DE Jadeveon Clowney, ILB Josey Jewell, DE D.J. Wonnum, CB Dane Jackson, T Yosh Nijman, S Jordan Fuller.
Key draft picks: WR Xavier Legette, RB Jonathan Brooks, LB Trevin Wallace, TE Ja’Tavion Sanders.
Summary: Thanks to the Carolina Panthers, the Falcons are not the most embarrassing franchise of 2023. I would like to say that there are a lot of changes going on in this organization, but constant changes seem to be the norm for this team. Let’s face it, the outlook for the Panthers goes through quarterback Bryce Young with a new coaching staff. They turned over a lot of players and made some very dumb drafting and free agency decisions. The Brian Burns trade was god awful. I would think that there is something internally that we do not know. The two draft picks of a wide receiver and a running back was highly questionable. This is not how you rebuild a team. The Panthers had plenty of opportunity to start drafting trenches and they instead went to the skill positions. If there is any good to say for this team, it’s that they weren’t quite as bad last season as their 2 win record portrayed. The Panthers ranked 29th in offensive EPA and 26th on defense. They could not stop the run, but they ranked 17th in defensive Pass EPA. In saying all of that, this is still another transitional year for Carolina, and I can’t imagine them winning many games.
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2023 MLB Season 146-123-7 up 11U
2023/2024 College Basketball up 9U
63% for 2022/2023 NBA sides and totals! 22-13 up 6.5 units. 14% ROI
55% All Time NFL Sides, Teasers, Parlays, Props and Totals! 5.21% ROI
56% 2022/2023 NFL Season 136-109-11 in Sides/Totals/Teasers/Season props up 38.5U
55% All Time College Football Sides, Teasers, Parlays, Props and Totals! 4.75% ROI
63% FOR 2022 COLLEGE BOWL SEASON UP 27 UNITS!
54% Lifetime All Plays in College Basketball 3% ROI
38% Lifetime UFC On All Plays 3% ROI
62% 2022 March Madness College Basketball Plays at 30% ROI!!!
Jailton Almeida vs Alexandr Romanov +260
Ok, I know that everyone wants to use Jailton Almeida in their parlays and all. I think that we need to pump the breaks on that. Jailton Almeida at 20-3 is a brazilian jiu-jitsu beast who loves to tire down his opponent until he gets his hooks in for a sub. Twelve of his twenty wins were by submission while seven of them were mainly ground and pound. Jailton also has proven that he can take down the best guys in the heavy weight division when he beat Derek Lewis in 5 rounds and he took down Curtis Blaydes 9 times before being knocked out. In saying all that, there are issues. Almeida has a very poor stand up game, and if he can’t wrestle his way into a victory, his chances of winning become quite slim. Alexandr Romanov is a big man and he fights almost like a Bear. He is the max weight for heavy weight at 265 pounds and he can wrestle! In Romanov’s 17 wins in his 18-2 record, he has 6 KOs, 9 submissions and 2 decisions. He has NEVER been submitted before in his professional career. Alexandr’s only two losses was a majority decison to Marcin Tybura and once being knocked out by Volkov. This tells me that Romanov can possible hang with Almeida, and if Jailton gasses, this will be Romanov’s fight to win. Maybe the bigger issue is that Almeida should be a light heavy weight fighter at 205 rather than fighting at 241 pounds after some big meals. Jailton might struggle trying to wrestle a wrestler weighting 25 lbs more than him. Don’t think that Alexandr doesn’t know what is coming. The price is wrong in this fight and I make Jailton only -200 in this bout.
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2023 MLB Season 146-123-7 up 11U
2023/2024 College Basketball up 9U
63% for 2022/2023 NBA sides and totals! 22-13 up 6.5 units. 14% ROI
55% All Time NFL Sides, Teasers, Parlays, Props and Totals! 5.21% ROI
56% 2022/2023 NFL Season 136-109-11 in Sides/Totals/Teasers/Season props up 38.5U
55% All Time College Football Sides, Teasers, Parlays, Props and Totals! 4.75% ROI
63% FOR 2022 COLLEGE BOWL SEASON UP 27 UNITS!
54% Lifetime All Plays in College Basketball 3% ROI
38% Lifetime UFC On All Plays 3% ROI
62% 2022 March Madness College Basketball Plays at 30% ROI!!!
Angels vs Mariners -156 O/U 7.5
It is June and summer baseball is in the air. Today, the Angels face the Mariners in Seattle. Bryce Miller takes the helm today for Seattle with a 3.48 ERA and a .99 WHIP. He faces off against lefty Reid Detmers for the Angels who is struggling bad this year with a 5.76 ERA and a 1.43 WHIP. One would think that he plays for the Cubs. Seattle hasn’t been hitting the ball well this year, but at least against lefties they rank 16th in wRC+. The Angels only ranks 23rd against righties in the same category. Looking at the bullpen, the Angels are pretty rough ranking 26th in FIP while the Mariners rank 5th in all of MLB. This is Seattle’s strong suit. I do not think that this number is correct at -156, but today I will be a little bit more greedy looking at the run line.
Here we are, the calendar is about to turn to June and we are approaching the 1/3 pole in the MLB season. All you big 4 sports bettors are about to be down to just baseball in a few weeks to scratch that gambling itch. Let’s get locked in on some Thursday night baseball.
My Analysis today turns to Citi Field in Queens, NY where the Mets (22-33) will host the Arizona Diamondbacks (25-30) at 7:10 ET. The current line sits at Arizona -123/ New York +103 with an Over/Under of 7 juiced to the under at -115. Game time temperature will be 68 degrees under clear skies with the wind blowing in from left at around 6mph.
The Mets are a mess. Since being a .500 club at 18-18 on May 8th they have dropped 15 of their last 19 games including eight of their last nine. They are averaging just 3.47 runs per contest over that span and only the White Sox have been worse. They held a team only meeting yesterday led by Francisco Lindor where he led a discussion about keeping a positive mindset following their defeat to the Dodgers. Also in the game yesterday reliever Jorge Lopez was ejected, threw his glove into the stands and stated in a post-game interview that “I think I’ve been on the worst team in probably the whole f–king MLB.” He was designated for assignment Wednesday night. In more Mets news yesterday closer Edwin Diaz hit the IL with Shoulder Impingement and slugger Pete Alonso got plunked in the hand. While X-rays came back clean for Alonso, he is going for more tests and I don’t anticipate him being in the lineup tonight. Lindor also has a bit of a banged up finger, but he played through it yesterday. I’m not sure there’s enough team meetings at Microsoft to write this ship.
New York will roll out top prospect, rookie Christian Scott who will be making his 5th career MLB start. Scott has been solid thus far at 0-2, but carrying a 3.97 ERA and a very closely matching 3.93 xFIP into the contest. His K-Rate is lower than expected vs his minor league numbers at 8.34 K/9, but it’s a small sample size and his walk rate is at 1.99 BB/9. The Mets bullpen has been rough the last week, but they do have a respectable 3.79 ERA overall.
The Diamondbacks will trot out Zac Gallen who is 5-4 with a 3.12 ERA and a 3.27 xFIP. His K-Rate is at 9.36 K/9 and the walk rate is at 2.34/9. Zac has been very good each of the last three seasons, although early on in 2024 we have seen his barrel rate and hard hit percent against rise above his career norms. Dbacks pen checks in at a 4.25 ERA
As far as the offense goes Arizona checks in at 14th in MLB with a .696 OPS and the Mets are 22nd at .674. Against right-handed pitching however the Mets actually hold the edge in OPS as the Snakes are actually smashing lefties. Arizona holds the edge in K/Game at 7.78 vs 8.15 for the Mets, and they also walk slightly more at 3.27 per game vs 3.11 for the Mets. The Snakes also have an advantage in BABIP at .288 vs .272.
Vegas likes this game to stay low scoring and close, and I think the starters should perform well. That being said, with everything that’s happened to the Mets the last few weeks, I don’t trust this spot against Gallen for them to snap out of their funk. No Alonso, a banged up Lindor and a bullpen in shambles leads me to think the Snakes get the first game of this series.
