We have a great show for you today! Vegas Matty @Vegas_Matty from FootballContest is back to give us some updates for the Circa! First, Kiev O’Neil recaps the weekend in the NFL. Then, Kiev talks about some of the NFL preaseason games coming up this weekend with a Free Play! Then, Matty comes on and the guys talk about CONTEST WEEKEND in Vegas and give some number updates for #CircaMillions and #CircaSurvivor. Will there be an overlay? After that, Matty and Kiev talk about some of the events that they will be attending for contest weekend. Finally, Dave comes on to talk about QB and RB rankings for fantasy football 2024! Should you have any questions for the podcast, or games that you want us to cap during our shows, please message us at Info@TheOddsBreakers.com. Have a wonderful week!
Get into 12 football contests for 50% off for only $60! Win a Guaranteed $50,000 in big survivor with a minimum $215,000 of total prizes! https://www.theSZN.com/OB is the link and you will also get entry into our The OddsBreakers +EV survivor contest guaranteeing a minimum $250 payout to the winner!
Use Promo Code Football24 TO GET $100 OFF EVERY FOOTBALL OR YEARLY PACKAGE or 50% OFF THE FIRST MONTH OF ANY MONTHLY PACKAGE for the rest of the 2024 season! Click here: https://theoddsbreakers.com/premium-plays/Offer expires August 31ST 2024
If you want to subscribe to support us and get some very frequent winners please Click Here to become a member of The OddsBreakers and gain access to premium plays BEFORE the line moves! Or, you can visit theoddsbreakers.com and click shop and pick one of our great handicappers including Kiev O’Neil @OBKiev at only $84 per month on a 1 year subscription!
You could also support us at Patreon.com for only $10 a month to help us out and thank us for some free plays as well as get some extra benefits like free merch and more!
We had a fantastic FedEx Cup St Jude Championship as we hit Hideki Matsuyama at 28-1 along with both of our placement bets Billy Horscehl (+115) T20 and Adam Scott (+140) T20.
Back-to-back most-tipped chart winners! 🔥
Congrats all Hideki ticket holders, what a sweat!! 🥵
The FedEx Cup Playoffs progress this week at the BMW Championship at Castle Pines Golf Club, where the top 50 players in the standings will compete. Only the top 30 players will advance to next week’s TOUR Championship, keeping their hopes alive for the PGA TOUR’s ultimate prize, the FedExCup.
Matsuyama entered the final round on Sunday at TPC Southwind with a commanding five-shot lead at 17-under. However, the back nine quickly turned dramatic as Hideki went 4-over from holes 12 to 16, leading to a three-way tie for the lead with Viktor Hovland and Xander Schauffele. A clutch birdie on the 17th hole put Matsuyama back in the lead, and he carried that momentum into the 18th, where he birdied again to secure a two-stroke victory at the BMW Championship. This win marked his first FedEx Cup Playoff victory and his second PGA Tour win of the season.
Jason Day
Jason Day, currently ranked 25th in the FedExCup standings, is the only player in this week’s field who competed at The International at Castle Pines the last time it hosted a PGA TOUR event in 2006.
Battle for the FedExCup No. 1 Spot
Scottie Scheffler currently leads the FedEx Cup standings with a 1,495-point advantage over Xander Schauffele, who is now the only player with a mathematical chance to overtake him. For Xander to do so, he would need to win this week at Castle Pines, as each playoff event awards 2,000 FedEx Cup points.
A complete transformation of each of the 18 greens to state-of-the-art T-1 creeping bentgrass
Expanded tee complexes.
Jim Lipe (2020)
No. 9 – The ninth fairway and left-side fairway bunkering were realigned slightly right in conjunction with the reconstruction of the existing mountain stream on the hole’s right side. The fairway was regraded to improve fairway surface drainage and a forced carry pond was eliminated. A new back tee was added that can be used on both the ninth and eighteenth holes.
No. 14 – The existing mountain stream crossing on the fourteenth fairway was relocated along with adding a new fairway bunker.
No. 15 – A new back tee was added.
No. 16 – Reimagining the green and tee complexes and introducing a greenside pond/waterfall.
No. 17 – The mountain stream on the left side of the seventeenth hole was enlarged and new fairway and greenside bunkers were also added.
To read more about the renovation, you can click the following link.
Comparable Courses & Greens:
Comparable Courses:
Augusta National Golf Club – Masters Tournament – RESULTS
Muirfield Village Golf Club – the Memorial Tournament – RESULTS
Shadow Creek – 2020 THE CJ CUP @ SHADOW CREEK – RESULTS
Designer Link (Jack Nicklaus (1981)):
Muirfield Village Golf Club – Jack Nicklaus (1974) – the Memorial Tournament
Tahoe Mountain Club (Old Greenwood) – Jack Nicklaus (2004) – Barracuda Championship
PGA WEST (Nicklaus Tournament Course) – Jack Nicklaus (1987) – The American Express
Comparable Location (Castle Rock, Colorado, United States):
The FedEx Cup is a season-long points competition that culminated with the FedExCup Playoffs. The FedExCup Playoffs is a series of three events that determine the FedExCup Champion.
The top 70 players in the season-long standings qualify for the first of three events (The FedEx St. Jude Championship). This is the only event of the three to have a cut after 36 holes. After this week’s event, only the top 50 players will qualify for the next event, the BMW Championship. Following that tournament, the final event of the playoffs takes place, the TOUR Championship.
In the TOUR Championship, only the top 30 players qualify and the points leader in the FedExCup will start the event at 10-under par. The No. 2 player will start at 8 under. The No. 3 player starts at 7 under; the No. 4 player starts at 6 under; the No. 5 player starts at 5 under. Players 6-10 start at 4 under; players 11-15 start at 3 under; players 16-20 start at 2 under; players 21-25 start at 1 under; and players 26-30 start at even par.
Course/ Tournament History:
Castle Pines Golf Club, located in Castle Rock, Colorado, has a rich history that reflects both the vision of its founder and its significant impact on the golfing world. The club was founded in 1981 by Jack Vickers, a Denver-based oilman with a passion for golf and a desire to create a world-class golfing experience in the Rocky Mountains. Vickers envisioned a course that would not only challenge the best golfers in the world but also provide a serene and picturesque setting for its members. To realize this dream, he enlisted the help of renowned golf course architect Jack Nicklaus, who designed the course to take full advantage of the rugged, rolling terrain and the breathtaking views of the surrounding mountains.
From its inception, Castle Pines Golf Club has been recognized for its impeccable design and challenging layout. The course is set at an elevation of around 6,400 feet, which adds an extra layer of difficulty due to the thinner air and its effect on ball flight. The layout features dramatic elevation changes, strategically placed bunkers, and undulating greens, making it a true test for golfers of all skill levels. The course’s signature hole, the par-5 14th, is particularly famous for its stunning views and challenging design.
Castle Pines gained international acclaim when it became the host of The International, a PGA Tour event, from 1986 to 2006. The International was unique on the tour due to its Modified Stableford scoring system, which awarded points based on the number of strokes taken on each hole, encouraging more aggressive play. This format, along with the course’s challenging design, made The International one of the most exciting events on the PGA Tour calendar. The tournament attracted some of the biggest names in golf and was known for its dramatic finishes and spectacular scenery.
Despite its success, The International faced increasing challenges in securing sponsorship and maintaining its status on the PGA Tour. In 2007, the tournament was discontinued, marking the end of an era for Castle Pines. However, the club has continued to thrive as a private, member-owned golf club, known for its exclusivity, impeccable service, and commitment to maintaining the highest standards of course quality.
In 2020, the club revealed its most unique golf amenity called The Crags. The Crags is a massive, one-acre putting course built on a series of rocky crags on the western cliff directly behind the clubhouse. The Crags is already becoming known as one of the best 18-hole putting courses in the country.
The BMW Championship is one of the premier events on the PGA Tour, tracing its origins back to 1899 when it was first established as the Western Open. This makes it one of the oldest professional golf tournaments in the United States. Originally, the Western Open was organized by the Western Golf Association (WGA) and quickly became a prestigious event, often considered a major championship during the early 20th century.
In 2007, the tournament was rebranded as the BMW Championship when the German automaker BMW took over as the title sponsor. This change also marked the event’s inclusion in the PGA Tour’s FedEx Cup Playoffs, positioning it as the penultimate playoff event before the Tour Championship. The BMW Championship is known for its strong fields, often featuring the top 70 players in the FedEx Cup standings, and is hosted at various prestigious golf courses across the United States, including Medinah Country Club, Conway Farms, and Olympia Fields.
Tournament Records:
72-Hole Record (Event – BMW Championship):
261, Patrick Cantlay/Bryson DeChambeau (2021 – Caves Valley Golf Club)
Originally crafted by Jack Nicklaus in 1981, Castle Pines Golf Club features a Par 72 layout, comprising four Par 3s, ten Par 4s, and four Par 5s.
The four Par 3’s (No. 4, No. 7, No. 11, & No. 16) at Castle Pines Golf Club range between 200 yards and 254 yards. In terms of stats, three of the four Par 3’s range between 200-225 yards.
No. 4, 254 Yards, Par 3: The fourth is a downhill par 3 with a wash along the entire right side of the hole. Although the green is generously sized, it can look deceptively small from the tee. The wash and two deep bunkers on the right often cause players to overcompensate to the left.
Once you are safely on, you’ll have to navigate a large, two-tiered putting surface that slopes more from front to back than it initially appears.
No. 7, 207 Yards, Par 3: The par 3 seventh was designed with the seventeenth hole at Glen Abbey Golf Club in mind. The elevated tee lies tucked into the trees, and four bunkers protect the green. The drop in elevation and swirling winds make club selection tough, and the large green is separated from right to left by a slope that will affect the break on most putts.
A small bunker is built right into the green and can make this usually tame hole a beast.
No. 11, 200 Yards, Par 3: The eleventh hole is a picturesque par 3 that Jack Vickers also thought would play well with water. A stream and two ponds guard this two-tiered green, which really makes the front hole location the toughest.
The green is 66 feet below the tee box, so this hole will play shorter than the yardage. Two bunkers on the right and one on the back left protect the green, and landing on the right tier is the key to a makeable putt.
No. 16, 226 Yards, Par 3: A picturesque par 3, the sixteenth hole has a green tucked in behind three cascading ponds. In addition to the water, three bunkers help define the putting surface but can make par a tough score if your ball lands in one.
It you have to bail out, err to the right and make sure you take enough club to clear the water in case you pull it left. The green size is deceptive from the tee, but it’s not too difficult to putt once you are on the putting surface.
There are ten Par 4s at Castle Pines Golf Club.No. 2 is the shortest Par 4 listed at 440 yards with the longest being No. 10, playing 545 yards.
No. 2, 440 Yards, Par 4: The second hole isn’t a long par 4, but a new pond and bunker guard the front and wrap around the right side of the green. The safe play is to lay back down the right side of the fairway off the tee to take advantage of the natural slope from right to left. A more aggressive route is with driver down the left side, which could leave a shorter approach but also risks getting wet if kept too far right.
The second shot plays slightly downhill; though it won’t be a long one, it demands an accurate approach. The green is long and narrow and is deceptively difficult to read.
No. 9, 495 Yards, Par 4: Originally the ninth hole had a ravine coming down from the clubhouse area. Jack Vickers thought it would be a good idea to put in a water feature, so the ravine was dammed up to create a series of cascading ponds on the right that partner with three fairway bunkers on the left. Now it’s one of the toughest drives on the course.
Once you are in the fairway, your second shot to this par 4 is uphill to a shallow green with a spine separating the left side from the right. Be sure to take enough club as most players come up short–and remember that this green can be one of the quickest on the course.
No. 12, 451 Yards, Par 4: Jack Nicklaus said he always enjoyed the tee shot on the twelfth hole because you can challenge the fairway bunkers on the right and be rewarded when you hit a good shot. But be forewarned that you will have some work left if your ball doesn’t find the fairway. There is also a water hazard down the entire left side of this par 4, so a good tee shot is imperative.
You can also play short of the bunkers off the tee because there is plenty of room to lay up, but a longer second shot brings the water left of the green and the two greenside bunkers into play. The green is somewhat narrow, but overall it isn’t too difficult to read.
No. 18, 514 Yards, Par 4: The eighteenth is a classic par 4 closing hole framed by the clubhouse in the background. It’s uphill from tee to green, so aim between the bunkers off the tee and let the fairway funnel your ball to the flattest lie. Long hitters can carry the right bunker but will be heavily penalized if they come up short.
The green is guarded by three bunkers and features a prominent swale in the middle, making putting tricky when the green speeds are up. Shorter approach shots can go right at the flag, but a safer line from further away is to favor the right side. It’s a great finishing hole for a great course.
There are four Par 5’s at Castle Pines Golf Club, No. 1, No. 8, No. 14, & No. 17.
No. 1, 622 Yards, Par 5: Long hitters can go for this Par 5 in two if they hit a good tee shot down the right side of the fairway. The downhill lie on your second can be a challenge, so most players should lay up to a comfortable yardage and avoid the three bunkers around the green.
No. 8, 601 Yards, Par 5: A three shot par 5 for most, the eighth hole plays uphill the entire way to an elevated green.
Drive the ball right down the middle to avoid the trees on the right and the two fairway bunkers on the left; then do the same on your second shot. Long hitters can get home in two, but they must avoid the trees on the right and a fairway bunker 25 yards short of the green.
Most players should leave themselves a comfortable yardage for their third. Two greenside bunkers sit to the left, but there is plenty of room on the right for a missed shot. The eighth green is one of the smallest, and a subtle ridge will come in to play when you are putting.
No. 14, 655 Yards, Par 5: The fourteenth hole is a tree lined, picturesque downhill par 5. Off the tee, the fairway is generous, but a grassed-in wash with deep rough guards the left side. The right center of the fairway is the ideal spot.
Your second shot requires either a layup before the creek that crosses the fairway or the guts to go over it. For the rest of the hole, water is in play as the creek flows along the left to a pond by the green. The green has a ridge in the middle that divides it from right to left, and cross green putts can really break. The best play is always to keep your ball below the hole and avoid the bunker that guards the back part of this shallow green.
No. 17, 532 Yards, Par 5: The seventeenth hole should give most players a good chance at birdie. This uphill par 5 is reachable in two with a good drive. Hit it right up the middle and avoid Cally’s Creek on the left and the trees on the right. If you can go for it in two, aim for the right side of the green to dodge the two deep bunkers on the left.
The L-shaped green is more accessible when you are chipping or pitching from the right side. If you can’t hit the green in two, it’s best to layup so you are hitting your third from a flat lie. The green itself has a lot of slope from back to front, and missing it long might be the hardest up and down on the course.
Success this week will hinge on players’ ability to position themselves effectively off the tee. While the course’s considerable length underscores the significance of distance, precision holds equal importance.
Leaders in this category in the last 24 Rounds:
Rory McIlroy
Scottie Scheffler
Cameron Young
Ludig Aberg
Collin Morikawa
Max Greyserman
Xander Schauffele
Sahith Theegala
Davis Thompson
Robert MacIntyre
Driving Distance
Success this week will hinge on players’ ability to position themselves effectively off the tee. While the course’s considerable length underscores the significance of distance, precision holds equal importance. Castle Pines is the longest course in PGA TOUR history.
Leaders in this category in the last 24 Rounds:
Viktor Hovland
Scottie Scheffler
Rory McIlroy
Max Greyserman
Davis Thompson
Cameron Young
Ludvig Aberg
Collin Morikawa
Sahith Theegala
Tommy Fleetwood
Strokes Gained: Approach
Having a strong iron game will be important this week if players want to succeed at Castle Pines Golf Club.
Leaders in this category in the last 24 Rounds:
Scottie Scheffler
Tony Finau
Xander Schauffele
Aaron Rai
Tommy Fleetwood
Viktor Hovland
Nick Dunlap
Shane Lowry
Tom Hoge
Russell Henley
Strokes Gained: Putting (Bentgrass / Poa annua)
The Greens at Castle Pines Golf Club are T1 Bentgrass / Poa annua .100”.
Leaders in this category in the last 24 Rounds:
J.T. Poston
Aaron Rai
Wyndham Clark
Matt Fitzpatrick
Eric Cole
Xander Schauffele
Sam Burns
Max Greyserman
Sungjae Im
Adam Scott
Par 3 Scoring: 200-225 Yards (x3)
Three of the four Par 3’s at Castle Pines Golf Club range between 200-225 Yards.
Leaders in Par 3 Scoring: 200-225 Yards in the last 24 Rounds:
Byeong Hun An
Sepp Straka
Russell Henley
Xander Schauffele
Billy Horschel
Aaron Rai
Wyndham Clark
Max Greyserman
Will Zalatoris
Taylor Pendrith
Par 4 Scoring: 450-500 Yards (x6)
Six of the ten Par 4’s at Castle Pines Golf Club between 450-500 Yards.
Leaders in Par 4 Scoring: 450-500 Yards in the last 24 Rounds:
Scottie Scheffler
Xander Schauffele
Collin Morikawa
Robert MacIntyre
Russell Henley
Cam Davis
Matt Fitzpatrick
Max Greyserman
Hideki Matsuyama
Christiaan Bezuidenhout
Par 5 Scoring: 650+ Yards (x2)
Two of the four Par 5’s at Castle Pines Golf Club are 650+ Yards.
Leaders in Par 5 Scoring: 650+ Yards in the last 24 Rounds:
Xander Schauffele
Adam Scott
Rory McIlroy
Scottie Scheffler
Brian Harman
Cameron Young
Sepp Straka
Justin Thomas
Wyndham Clark
Collin Morikawa
Scrambling Gained
A player’s ability to recover and save par after missing the green in regulation will be crucial this week. The ability to recover from these situations and save par can make the difference between maintaining a competitive score and falling behind. High scrambling percentages contribute directly to lower scores.
Leaders in this category in the last 24 Rounds:
Hideki Matsuyama
Xander Schauffele
Si Woo Kim
Sam Burns
Robert MacIntyre
Sungjae Im
Christiaan Bezuidenhout
Akshay Bhatia
Billy Horschel
Brian Harman
Proximity Gained: 200+ Yards
Most approach shots at Castle Pines Golf Club come from the 200+ yard range at a volume much higher than the PGA Tour average.
Leaders in Proximity Gained: 200+ Yards in the last 24 Rounds:
Shane Lowry
Max Greyserman
Christiaan Bezuidenhout
Byeong Hun An
Aaron Rai
Cameron Young
Billy Horschel
Justin Thomas
Xander Schauffele
Robert MacIntyre
Comparable Courses and Event History
This will be the first time since 2006 that Castle Pines has hosted a PGA Tour event so we’ll have to rely on comparable courses this week.
The Field:
This year’s BMW Championship will feature a total of 50 competitors.
Here is the current basis of qualification for each entrant this week:
Top 50 FedExCup Points
Previous Winners in the Field (Event):
Viktor Hovland (’23), Patrick Cantlay (’22, ’21), Justin Thomas (’19), Keegan Bradley (’18), Jason Day (’15), Billy Horschel (’14)
Debutants in the Field (Event):
Ludvig Aberg, Akshay Bhatia, Thomas Detry, Nick Dunlap, Austin Eckroat, Max Greyserman, Stephan Jaeger, Robert MacIntyre, Matthieu Pavon, Aaron Rai, Davis Thompson
Here are the current favorites for this week’s event along with a summary of their recent form and course history:
Scottie Scheffler (+330) finished 4th last week at the FedEx St. Jude Championship, fresh off his gold medal win at the Paris Olympics. Prior to Paris, Scheffler won two of his last four starts, claiming victories at the Travelers Championship and the Memorial Tournament. This marks his fifth appearance at the BMW Championship, where he finished T3 in 2022 at Wilmington Country Club and T2 in 2023 at Olympia Fields Country Club.
Xander Schauffele (+550) has won two major championships this season, but those remain his only victories so far. He finished T2 last week at the FedEx St. Jude Championship, just two strokes shy of the win. This will be Schauffele’s eighth appearance at the BMW Championship, with notable finishes including T3 in 2022 at Wilmington Country Club and T8 in 2023 at Olympia Fields Country Club.
Rory McIlroy (+1200) is coming off one of his worst performances of the season, finishing T68 at the FedEx St. Jude Championship last week. Despite recent struggles, McIlroy has a strong track record at the BMW Championship, including a victory in 2012 at Crooked Stick Golf Club. More recently, he finished 4th in 2021 at Caves Valley Golf Club, T8 in 2022 at Wilmington Country Club, and 4th in 2023 at Olympia Fields Country Club.
Collin Morikawa (+1400) has yet to win on the PGA Tour this season, but he has consistently performed well, finishing inside the top 30 in each of his last twelve starts. Last week, he placed T22 at the FedEx St. Jude Championship, marking the first time since April’s RBC Heritage that he lost strokes on approach. This will be Morikawa’s sixth appearance at the BMW Championship, where he has only cracked the top 20 once, finishing inside the top 20 in 2020 at Olympia Fields Country Club.
Will There Be a Playoff at the BMW Championship? (Yes +350/ No -500)
The BMW Championship has ended in a playoff in three of the past six editions. The most recent playoff was in 2021 at Caves Valley when Patrick Cantlay defeated Bryson DeChambeau.
Castle Pines Golf Club hosted the International, a PGA Tour event from 1986 to 2006. In the last edition of that event, before it was canceled, the tournament was decided in a playoff with Dean Wilson defeating Tom Lehman.
Will There Be A Hole-in-One at the BMW Championship? (Yes +170 / No -250)
Last year at the BMW Championship, which was held at Olympia Fields, there were no holes in one made. In 2022, the BMW Championship was held at Wilmington Country Club where Viktor Hovland made a hole-in-one on hole No. 2.
Previous Winners Scores, Prices, and Strokes Gained (Rank at Tournament):
2023: Viktor Hovland (-17) – Olympia Fields Country Club (North Course)
Price: 18-1
SG: Off the Tee
SG: Tee to Green
SG: Approach
SG: Around the Green
SG: Putting
Viktor Hovland
2nd
3rd
4th
34th
4th
2022: Patrick Cantlay (-14) – Wilmington Country Club (South)
Price: 16-1
SG: Off the Tee
SG: Tee to Green
SG: Approach
SG: Around the Green
SG: Putting
Patrick Cantlay
3rd
2nd
6th
40th
23rd
2021: Patrick Cantlay (-27) – Caves Valley Country Club
Price: 25-1
SG: Off the Tee
SG: Tee to Green
SG: Approach
SG: Around the Green
SG: Putting
Patrick Cantlay
15th
28th
28th
47th
1st
2020: Jon Rahm (-4) – Olympia Fields Country Club (North)
Price: 10-1
SG: Off the Tee
SG: Tee to Green
SG: Approach
SG: Around the Green
SG: Putting
Jon Rahm
7th
6th
9th
13th
6th
2019: Justin Thomas (-25) – Medinah Country Club’s No. 3 course
Price: 16-1
Previous Winners Incoming Form (Last 5 Starts):
2023: Viktor Hovland
T13 – FedEx St. Jude Championship (PGA)
T13 – The Open Championship (MAJ)
T25 – Genesis Scottish Open (PGA)
T29 – Travelers Championship (PGA)
19 – U.S. Open (MAJ)
2022: Patrick Cantlay
T57 – FedEx St. Jude Championship (PGA)
T2 – Rocket Mortgage Classic (PGA)
T8 – The Open Championship (MAJ)
T4 – Genesis Scottish Open (PGA)
T13 – Travelers Championship (PGA)
2021: Patrick Cantlay
T11 – THE NORTHERN TRUST (PGA)
T23 – WGC-FedEx St. Jude Invitational (PGA)
MC – The Open Championship (MAJ)
T13 – Travelers Championship (PGA)
T15 – U.S. Open (MAJ)
2020: Jon Rahm
T6 – THE NORTHERN TRUST (PGA)
T13 – PGA Championship (MAJ)
T52 – WGC-FedEx St. Jude Invitational (PGA)
WON – the Memorial Tournament (PGA)
T27 – Workday Charity Open (PGA)
2019: Justin Thomas
T12 – THE NORTHERN TRUST (PGA)
T12 – WGC-FedEx St. Jude Invitational (PGA)
T11 – The Open Championship (MAJ)
T9 – Aberdeen Standard Investments Scottish Open (EUR)
T36 – Travelers Championship (PGA)
Previous Winners Finishes at Event:
2023: Viktor Hovland
BMW Championship
BMW Championship
BMW Championship
Wilmington Country Club (South)
Caves Valley Country Club
Olympia Fields Country Club (North)
2022
2021
2020
Viktor Hovland
T35
T17
T40
2022: Patrick Cantlay
BMW Championship
BMW Championship
BMW Championship
BMW Championship
BMW Championship
Caves Valley Country Club
Olympia Fields Country Club (North)
Medinah Country Club (No. 3)
Aronimink Golf Club
Conway Farms Golf Club
2021
2020
2019
2018
2017
Patrick Cantlay
WON
T12
2
T55
T9
2021: Patrick Cantlay
BMW Championship
BMW Championship
BMW Championship
BMW Championship
Olympia Fields Country Club (North)
Medinah Country Club (No. 3)
Aronimink Golf Club
Conway Farms Golf Club
2020
2019
2018
2017
Patrick Cantlay
T12
2
T55
T9
2020: Jon Rahm
BMW Championship
BMW Championship
BMW Championship
Medinah Country Club (No. 3)
Aronimink Golf Club
Conway Farms Golf Club
2019
2018
2017
Jon Rahm
T5
T24
T5
2019: Justin Thomas
BMW Championship
BMW Championship
BMW Championship
BMW Championship
Aronimink Golf Club
Conway Farms Golf Club
Crooked Stick Golf Club
Conway Farms Golf Club
2018
2017
2016
2015
Justin Thomas
T12
T47
T32
T13
Picks:
Outrights:
Viktor Hovland (+1800) – FanDuel
Risk 0.45 to win 8.10 Units
Viktor Hovland has had a season full of ups and downs, but he heads into the BMW Championship with momentum after an impressive T2 finish at the FedEx St. Jude Championship. Among the field, he ranked 4th in Strokes Gained (SG): Approach, 4th in SG: Tee to Green, 5th in SG: Off the Tee, and 12th in SG: Putting. Hovland is the defending champion of this event, having won last year at Olympia Fields, which shares the same green complex as Castle Pines. Outside of that victory, his best finish in this event was a T17 in 2021 at Caves Valley Country Club. Hovland has also found success on Jack Nicklaus-designed courses, including a win at the Memorial Tournament last season. Over the past 24 rounds, he ranks 1st in SG: Off the Tee, 6th in SG: Approach, and 15th in SG: Putting (Bent/Poa). Additionally, he ranks 22nd in Driving Distance Gained, 40th in Par 3 Scoring (200-225 Yards), 26th in Par 4 Scoring (450-500 Yards), and 30th in Par 5 Scoring (650+ Yards).
Wyndham Clark (+3300) – FanDuel
Risk 0.25 to win 8.25 Units
Wyndham Clark secured his first PGA Tour victory earlier this season at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am. He followed that with runner-up finishes at the Arnold Palmer Invitational and THE PLAYERS Championship. Recently, Clark has continued his strong play, finishing T9 at the Travelers Championship, T10 at the Genesis Scottish Open, and T7 at the FedEx St. Jude Championship. This will be his fourth appearance at the BMW Championship, with his best finish coming last year at Olympia Fields, where he finished T15. Over the past 24 rounds, Clark ranks 19th in SG: Off the Tee, 42nd in SG: Approach, and 3rd in SG: Putting (Bent/Poa). He also ranks 5th in Driving Distance Gained, 7th in Par 3 Scoring (200-225 Yards), 9th in Par 5 Scoring (650+ Yards), and 16th in Scrambling Gained.
Tony Finau (+3300) – FanDuel
Risk 0.25 to win 8.25 Units
Tony Finau has yet to claim a PGA Tour victory this season, but he has been remarkably consistent, finishing inside the top 20 in eight of his last ten starts. His recent form includes a T12 finish at the 3M Open and a T16 at the FedEx St. Jude Championship. This will be his tenth appearance at the BMW Championship, where he has recorded five top-20 finishes. His best finish during this span was a 4th place at Medinah Country Club in 2019. Over the past 24 rounds, Finau ranks 38th in SG: Off the Tee and 2nd in SG: Approach.
Sam Burns (+3500) – FanDuel
Risk 0.23 to win 8.05 Units
Sam Burns has not yet won on the PGA Tour this season, but he is hitting his stride, with a T12 finish at the 3M Open and a T5 at the FedEx St. Jude Championship last week. This will be his fourth appearance at the BMW Championship, where he has finished 8th in 2021 at Caves Valley Country Club, T19 in 2022 at Wilmington Country Club, and T15 in 2023 at Olympia Fields. Over the past 24 rounds, Burns ranks 18th in SG: Off the Tee and 7th in SG: Putting (Bent/Poa). He also ranks 12th in Driving Distance Gained, 32nd in Par 3 Scoring (200-225 Yards), and 19th in Par 4 Scoring (450-500 Yards).
Matt Fitzpatrick (+7000) – FanDuel
Risk 0.12 to win 8.40 Units
Matt Fitzpatrick has had an up-and-down season but comes into the BMW Championship following a T18 finish at the FedEx St. Jude Championship. Despite a rocky year, Fitzpatrick has a strong record on Nicklaus-designed courses, including a T5 finish at the Memorial Tournament in 2024 and T9 in 2023. This will be his fourth appearance at the BMW Championship, where he has finished T6 in 2020 at Olympia Fields, T48 in 2022 at Wilmington Country Club, and T2 in 2023 at Olympia Fields.
Total Risk on Outrights: 1.30 Units
Top 20 (including ties):
Adam Scott (+100) – BetMGM
Risk 1.00 to win 1.00 Units
Adam Scott’s last win came at The Genesis Invitational at Riviera Country Club in 2020, but he enters this week’s event in strong form. In his last three starts, he finished 2nd at the Genesis Scottish Open, T10 at The Open Championship, and T18 at the FedEx St. Jude Championship. Despite the rotating venues for the BMW Championship, Scott has a history of success in this event. In his last twelve appearances, he has finished inside the top 10 six times. Last year at Olympia Fields, he finished T5, just four shots behind the winner. Notably, at the 2014 BMW Championship hosted at Cherry Hills in Colorado, he placed T8. Over the past 24 rounds, Scott ranks 21st in SG: Off the Tee, 34th in SG: Approach, and 10th in SG: Putting (Bent/Poa). He also ranks 23rd in Driving Distance Gained, 23rd in Par 4 Scoring (450-500 Yards), and 2nd in Par 5 Scoring (650+ Yards).
Taylor Pendrith (+135) – DraftKings
Risk 1.00 to win 1.35 Units
Canadian native Taylor Pendrith captured his first PGA Tour victory earlier this season at THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson. He comes into this week in great form, having finished T5 at the Barracuda Championship, 5th at the 3M Open, and T22 at the FedEx St. Jude Championship in his last three starts. This will be his second appearance at the BMW Championship, with his best finish being T8 in 2022 at Wilmington Country Club. Pendrith’s distance off the tee should provide an advantage this week, especially with the elevation. His approach play has also significantly improved, as he’s gained strokes on approach in each of his last six events. Last week at the FedEx St. Jude Championship, he ranked 8th in the field in that category. Over the past 24 rounds, Pendrith ranks 26th in SG: Off the Tee, 19th in SG: Approach, and 18th in SG: Putting (Bent/Poa). He also ranks 6th in Driving Distance Gained, 10th in Par 3 Scoring (200-225 Yards), and 17th in Par 5 Scoring (650+ Yards).
Nick Dunlap (+150) – FanDuel
Risk 1.00 to win 1.50 Units
Nick Dunlap has had an impressive rookie season, winning The American Express as an amateur and more recently securing his first professional victory at the Barracuda Championship. Following that win, he struggled with missed cuts at the 3M Open and Wyndham Championship. However, he bounced back with a T5 finish at the FedEx St. Jude Championship last week, where he ranked 5th in SG: Approach, 6th in SG: Tee to Green, and 11th in SG: Putting. This will be Dunlap’s first BMW Championship, but he has already shown an affinity for Jack Nicklaus-designed courses, finishing T12 at Muirfield Village earlier this season. Additionally, Dunlap has performed well out West, with both of his wins coming in the Pacific Time Zone. Notably, he also won the 2023 U.S. Amateur at Cherry Hills Country Club, located in Denver, Colorado.
Total Risk on Top 20s: 3.00 Units
As always, all of my placement bets are through BetMGM as they’re one of the only books without dead-heat rules. If you’d like to bet these placements at BetMGM, you can get up to $1500 in Bonus Bets if you don’t win if you’re a first-time user. Must Be 21+. Gambling Problem? Call or Text 1-800-GAMBLER.
Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting. Any feedback whether positive or negative is always encouraged.
We are now in the midst of Preseason action which means real NFL games are just around the corner. I’ve put together 9 preview articles that break down the season win predictions for every team in football, and then look to the playoffs and what teams have value in the futures. I have gone through the entire schedule game by game and have found some great values on season win totals. I’ll highlight my top plays along the way and get you my picks division by division.
My all time tracked record in the NFL currently sits at 228-191-7 with a 3.4% ROI as we had a huge 2021 and a slight winning campaign in 2022 and 2023. You can find all my packages available here at TheOddsBreakers.com
Wanna know anything else? Hit me up on Twitter or whatever it’s called now @TheGreatKnoche.
What?? You have the Bengals finishing first. Yes, yes I do. This team managed to go 9-8 last year with a little turnover luck, and a 27th ranked defense in EPA. This is even with the Burrow injuries. That was also with a very hard schedule last year, and they have a very easy schedule this season. Burrow should be healthy from his calf, knee and wrist injuries. The top off-season moves by the Bengals was to solidify his O-line. They lost Jonah Williams, but got a steal in the draft with tackle Amarius Mims. The middle of the line is stout, and they also have pro-bowler Orlando Brown Jr. on the blind side. Zach Moss should fit the mold to transition effortlessly from Joe Mixon in the backfield. The receiver core is where the questions arise with Ja’Marr Chase holding out currently and Tee Higgins playing under the franchise tag. I think they get the Chase contract done soon. With the Super Bowl in New Orleans this year there’s something to be said for Chase and Burrow to bring the Bengals to the Big Easy together.
The defense is underwhelming, but I don’t think they can be as bad again in 2024. Trey Hendrickson is back now committed after contract issues and is joined by new tackle Sheldon Rankins who will help an already decent run defense. The core linebackers Logan Wilson and Germaine Pratt both excelled in the run game, and were solid in underneath pass defense logging six picks between them. The Bengals issues were in the secondary in 2023 with the pass however. I think some of the changes they have made should help shore up that passing defense. They will move Dax Hill from safety to cornerback. They brought back Vonn Bell and added safety Geno Stone who should fix the hole left in 2023 when Jesse Bates left. This should really fix their 31st ranking in Passing chunk plays.
With a healthy Burrow, all they need is a slightly improved defense to hammer this 4th place schedule and get back to the playoffs.
Vegas Win Projection: 10.5 Juiced Over -120, Under -110
Baltimore Ravens
The Ravens got as close as they have up to this point to getting to a Super Bowl with Lamar Jackson. They add Derrick Henry in the running game and will get to see how much he has left in the tank. He led the league in carries in four of last five seasons and just turned 30 years old. Part of the equation for both of them will be the turnover on the offensive line. Only two starters return from the group last year. They drafted tackle Roger Rosengarten in the second round, but didn’t add much depth and I think this group will be much worse than 2023 in the trenches. The main receiving targets are both likely Tight ends in Mark Andrews and Isaiah Likely. Zay Flowers proved himself as a solid target on the outside as well in 2023.
The 2023 Ravens defense put itself in the record books in becoming the first team ever to lead the league in sacks, takeaways and points allowed. They lost a ton of personnel in the off-season and will likely be good, but not great this year. There are still Pro-Bowlers at all three levels. Up front they are led by DT Justin Madubuike. David Ojabo hasn’t been healthy since college, but he could contribute something meaningful if he stays on the field. The linebacker core features the best defensive player in the league in my opinion in Roquan Smith. The lose Patrick Queen at the Will and need Trenton Simpson to become a solid NFL option. Safety Kyle Hamilton leads a secondary that loses three players this year. They still have Marlon Humphrey as their top option at Corner, but he has been slowed by injury. Clemson corner Nate Wiggins was their top pick in the draft and will need to contribute right away.
Look for the Ravens to compete again to win the division this year, but I think the losses this off-season could prove too much to repeat in this difficult division.
Vegas Win Projection: 10.5 Juiced Over -120, Under -110
Pittsburgh Steelers
Could getting Justin Fields and Russell Wilson as QBs become the reason Mike Tomlin’s streak of never finishing below .500 ends? Watching the pre-season so far I’d say its a possibility. But he won 10 games with Mitch Trubisky, Mason Rudolph and Kenny Pickett at the helm, so who knows. Wilson didn’t have an awful year with Sean Payton in Denver and is still the one I would trust the most to lead the offense. The Steelers also invested heavily in the O-Line in the draft to protect Wilson who was seemingly running for his life on every dropback last year in Denver. They nabbed left tackle Troy Fautanu in the first round and then got center Zach Frazier in the second. This will likely be one of the youngest offensive lines in the league, but should also have some of the most upside as well. They’ll be opening holes for Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren. I like Warren’s explosive ability to become the lead back in 2024. George Pickens will lead the receiving core, but I am not to excited by any of his compadres across the field. Someone will need to step up and give the QBs a better second option to throw to.
T.J. Watt leads a defense that goes as he does. Paired with other outside linebacker Alex Highsmith they create the highest havoc marks in the league from a LB position duo. They also signed the above mentioned Patrick Queen from Baltimore which is a huge in division swipe. Cameron Heyward still anchors the line upfront, but he’s getting up there in age and will need some help from the likes of second round pick Joey Porter Jr. Minkah Fitzpatrick will be joined by Deshon Elliot in a secondary that should be similar to last years squad.
Odds makers seem to think this will be the year Tomlin doesn’t get to .500. I disagree unless T.J. Watt gets hurt. They are 69-32-2 with Watt in the lineup. 1-10 when he isn’t.
Vegas Win Projection: 8.5 Juiced Under -145, Over +110
Cleveland Browns
Joe Flacco is no longer in Cleveland to save their season. Deshaun Watson will have to return to his Houston form to make things improve in Cleveland. They have Amari Cooper back as his primary target alongside TE David Njoku. They traded for Jerry Jeudy to give them another big threat for Watson. Nick Chubb should be back soon from knee surgery, but even if not quite ready to start the season the Browns signed plenty of RB depth this off-season. Cleveland has a solid OL with all of the starters returning and they should continue to produce solid results. Overall the offense was one of the worst in the NFL, and I don’t see Deshaun getting back to his old self anytime soon.
Myles Garrett leads a solid defensive unit which was #1 overall in EPA. They resigned Za’Darius Smith and Shelby Harris to help up front. They add LB Jordan Hicks. Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah is also coming off his best season at LB. The front seven in Cleveland is a huge undertaking for the offensive fronts of most teams. The cornerbacks led by Denzel Ward are probably the best overall grouping in the league. If there’s any weakness on defense it is at the safety position.
This team will be in a ton of dogfights, but are going to struggle to make the playoffs again in this tough division without improved QB play.
Vegas Win Projection: 8.5 Juiced Over -145, Under +115
2024 AFC North Predictions:
Cincinnati Bengals 13-4
Baltimore Ravens 10-7
Pittsburgh Steelers 10-7
Cleveland Browns 9-8
AFC North Action:
Cincinnati Bengals – Over 10.5 Wins -120 1 Unit. My game projection has them with a big fast start and then they just keep on rolling. I don’t trust the defense enough with the eye test to tie up more than 1 Unit however.
Baltimore Ravens – No Action. Great regular season team that could certainly win the division and put up 12 or 13 wins. I’m laying off this year though.
Pittsburgh Steelers – Lean Over. I’d say the best bet here might actually be Pittsburgh to make the playoffs at +155. I may go that route before the season starts.
Cleveland Browns – No action. This division is gonna be the best in football again. The coach I trust to keep his team out of the cellar without a solid QB resides in Pittsburgh. This team needs to be 4-1 to start the season to have a chance to make the playoffs as they have two brutal stretches in Weeks 6-11 and again weeks 15-18. I like looking at an In-season under bet if they get to the 4-1 record.
We are now in the midst of Preseason action which means real NFL games are just around the corner. I’ve put together 9 preview articles that break down the season win predictions for every team in football, and then look to the playoffs and what teams have value in the futures. I have gone through the entire schedule game by game and have found some great values on season win totals. I’ll highlight my top plays along the way and get you my picks division by division.
My all time tracked record in the NFL currently sits at 228-191-7 with a 3.4% ROI as we had a huge 2021 and a slight winning campaign in 2022 and 2023. You can find all my packages available here at TheOddsBreakers.com
Wanna know anything else? Hit me up on Twitter or whatever it’s called now @TheGreatKnoche.
AFC West
2023 Records
Kansas City 11-6/ Las Vegas 8-9/ Denver 8-9/ Los Angeles Chargers 5-12
Kansas City Chiefs
The Chiefs became back to back Super Bowl Champs last season, and have been in the big game four times in the last five seasons. Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes are an elite combo. Still their offense took a step back last season without a deep play threat to stretch the field. They fixed that well this off-season grabbing speedster Marquis Brown in Free Agency and picking the fastest receiver in the draft Xavier Worthy in Round 1. They should open up the middle of the field more for Travis Kelce who will look to return to form after falling short of 1,000 yards in 2023. Isaiah Pacheco and CEH will again anchor a solid backfield. The interior of the OL is the the strength with the only question mark being who will watch Mahomes’ blind side at LT.
On defense Chris Jones anchors the DL on the inside. George Karlaftis took a big step forward in 2023 and looks to be a league leader in sacks this season. They lose Willy Gay in the linebacking core which hurts. They also lose L’Jarious Sneed and Mike Edwards in the secondary. Justin Reid is solid at safety, but the back 7 on this defense are going to be a work in progess to start the season, and I anticipate them taking a step back in 2024 and forcing the offense to win some shootout type games for them.
Vegas Win Projection: 11.5 Juiced Over -120, Under -110
Los Angeles Chargers
Like him or not, Jim Harbaugh seemingly wins wherever he goes. I don’t think Los Angeles will be any different. Justin Herbert is an elite QB and pairing him with Harbaugh should prove dangerous to the Chiefs reign in the division. There were some salary cap issues this off-season and they lost Austin Ekeler and Mike Williams plus they traded away Keenan Allen. I do love the running back replacements in Gus Edwards and J.K. Dobbins. Joshua Palmer will be the new primary receiving threat and they will need to see last years top pick Quentin Johnson figure things out this season. They add Will Dissly and Hayden Hurst at tight end, both elite blocking tight ends to help bolster the running game. The left side of the OL is as good as they come with Reshawn Johnson and Zion Slater. Rookie tackle Joe Alt will anchor the right side of the line. I look for Harbaugh to really lean into the running game in his first season at the helm.
Joey Bosa and Khalil Mack both took paycuts to help with the salary cap, and they will lead a solid DL. Poona Ford and Bud Dupree both sign and should help the group as well. Both starting inside linebackers are gone. They hope rookie Junior Colson can make a name for himself there. The secondary is also weak with safety Derwin James being the only real player of note. Asante Samuel leads the group of corners, but there is a lot of uncertainty across the board at CB.
I could see Harbaugh getting this team on track right away on offense, but the defense could be a problem again for this team in 2024.
Vegas Win Projection: 8.5 Juiced Over -145, Under +115
Las Vegas Raiders
The Raiders biggest question is if Gardnew Minshew or Aidan O’Connell can be good enough to raise this team up to a playoff berth. My magic eight ball says signs point to no. Antonio Pierce got the interim tagged remove after replacing the fired Josh McDaniels, and he’ll need new OC Luke Getsy to work some magic to keep that job for more than a few seasons. This team does have some studs including receiver Davonte Adams. He’s joined by Jakobi Myers. Drafting TE Brock Bowers to pair with those two should create some major match-up issues. RB Zamir White looked great in his small audition last year as the top backfield option. He will run behind a solid left side of the line, but there will be new pieces at RG and RT.
The defense is led by Maxx Crosby and is the reason they were competitive last year. Signing Christian Wilkins at DT will be a huge addition and give them a big time player inside. Robert Spillane and Divine Deablo are both elite players at LB. Jack Jones and Nate Hobbs form a solid CB duo, and they return both starting safeties. I think there is plenty of reason to believe this could be a top5 defense in 2024.
Vegas Win Projection: 6.5 Juiced Over -135, Under +105
Denver Broncos
The Russell Wilson era is over, and the Bo Nix era will begin. I am high on Bo Nix as a future solid playcaller in the NFL, but I think he will run into the same issues as Wilson which is a lack of weapons and little defensive support. This will be a rebuilding year for Sean Payton, and I think 2025 will be the prove it year. Javonte Williams didn’t look the same at RB after returning from his ACL injury. The receiving core traded away Jerry Jeudy and will have Cortland Sutton, Marvin Mims Jr., and Josh Reynolds which isn’t going to strike fear into a lot of opposing defenses. The OL will replace the center, but is the most solid position group on offense.
The defense was a disaster, and is likely now worse after cutting all-pro safety Justin Simmons. Pat Surtain will anchor the rest of the secondary looking to take away one half of the field. The DL was awful last season as this team was 30th in rushing defense. The LB core loses leader Josey Jewell, but brings in Cody Barton. Look for this defense to continue to struggle unless they get takeaways.
Vegas Win Projection: 5.5 Juiced Under -120, Over -110
2024 AFC West Predictions:
Kansas City Chiefs 10-7
Los Angeles Chargers 9-8
Las Vegas Raiders 7-10
Denver Broncos 4-13
AFC West Action:
Kansas City Chiefs – Strong Lean Under. I might still pull the trigger on the under here. They have a tough at large schedule @SF, @Buffalo, vs Houston. The defense is going to be leaky.
Los Angeles Chargers – No Action. – I like this team, but the defense will be soft. They do have a really easy schedule so I think there’s some thought to taking them to make the playoffs, but the market only has them at +110.
Las Vegas Raiders – Lean over. The defense is going to win this team some games, but I don’t think Gardner Minshew or Aidan O’Connell will.
Denver Broncos – Lean Under. I think they’ll let Bo Nix learn on the fly, but with no solid weapons and a crappy defense they are going to struggle to get to 6 wins.
Get into 12 football contests for 50% off for only $60! Win a Guaranteed $50,000 in big survivor with a minimum $215,000 of total prizes! https://www.theSZN.com/OB is the link and you will also get entry into our The OddsBreakers +EV survivor contest guaranteeing a minimum $250 payout to the winner!
USE PROMO CODE Football24 TO GET $100 OFF EVERY FOOTBALL PACKAGE For the rest of the 2024/2025 SEASON! ALSO GET 50% FOR YOUR FIRST MONTH FOR ANY MONTHLY SUBSCRIPTION Click here:https://theoddsbreakers.com/premium-plays/ Offer expires August 15th 2024
To get Kiev’s premium winners, and to support his hard work at The OddsBreakers, pleaseClick here to get his no obligation membership packages!!! We believe in getting the best of the number and it is the only way that we do business!
Kiev O’Neil’s Sports Betting Stats and Records!
56% 139-109-5 up 22 units in the 2023 NFL Season!
55% 101-82-8 up 10 units in 2024 MLB Thus Far on 8/05/24!
2023 MLB Season 146-123-7 up 11U
2023/2024 College Basketball up 9U
63% for 2022/2023 NBA sides and totals! 22-13 up 6.5 units. 14% ROI
55% All Time NFL Sides, Teasers, Parlays, Props and Totals! 5.21% ROI
56% 2022/2023 NFL Season 136-109-11 in Sides/Totals/Teasers/Season props up 38.5U
55% All Time College Football Sides, Teasers, Parlays, Props and Totals! 4.75% ROI
63% FOR 2022 COLLEGE BOWL SEASON UP 27 UNITS!
54% Lifetime All Plays in College Basketball 3% ROI
38% Lifetime UFC On All Plays 3% ROI
62% 2022 March Madness College Basketball Plays at 30% ROI!!!
Dricus Du Plessis vs Israel Adesanya -120
Tonight we have a pretty good event with some big named fighters and some ones more up and coming. The Main event drew my attention right away when I saw the numbers. Both fighters happen to be from Africa , both fighting in Australia in the wee hours in the morning. Israel Adesanya (Izzy) is a very accomplished fighter. He wants to become champion again after he lost his belt just about a year ago to Sean Strickland. Dricus (DDP) may be good enough to not let it happen. He is 21-2 and he keeps improving his game. Now Izzy the Style Bender will have a 3 inch height and a 4 inch reach advantage, but that is about it. DDP lands 6.49 significant strikes per minute to Izzy at 3.93. Izzy’s defense is better for sure, but his grappling has always been the problem. IF DDP isn’t doing well on his feet, he will take this fight to the ground averaging three take downs per 15 minutes. Izzy has a good take down defense, but this fight is five rounds and I expect DDP to have the upper hand. Another issue that I have with Izzy is that his emotions do not seem right. He started crying during his interview, and that made me think that he can make some poor decisions in big situations. I would not be surprised if he does catch DDP with a right cross, but I think that the value is on the champ.
Dricus Du Plessis +100 – 1.5 stars
Bonus Play – Luana Santos by submission +500 – .5 stars – Luana is 8-1 with half of her victories by Sub. Casey O’Neil was just subbed by Lipski in her last fight in December. She did not look good. I see some value in the prop
We have a MASSIVE show for you today! The longest and most informative in our history! Chris Fallica @ChrisFallica from @FoxSports and Ralph Michaels @CalSportsLV from @Wagertalk break down 2024 college football! First, Kiev talks about football contests and NFL Preseason week 2 with a Free Play. He went 6-4-1 from week 1. Next, Ralph and Chris come on and the guys first start talking delicious Culvers fast food. Then, we get right into college football talking about some BIG BETS in every single conference from a season win total or futures perspective. Finally, the boys get into the awards market with some long shots that will help us all have a great holiday season! Should you have any questions for the podcast, or games that you want us to cap during our shows, please message us at Info@TheOddsBreakers.com. Have a wonderful week!
Get into 12 football contests for 50% off for only $60! Win a Guaranteed $50,000 in big survivor with a minimum $215,000 of total prizes! https://www.theSZN.com/OB is the link and you will also get entry into our The OddsBreakers +EV survivor contest guaranteeing a minimum $250 payout to the winner!
Use Promo Code Football24 TO GET $100 OFF EVERY FOOTBALL OR YEARLY PACKAGE or 50% OFF THE FIRST MONTH OF ANY MONTHLY PACKAGE for the rest of the 2024 season! Click here: https://theoddsbreakers.com/premium-plays/Offer expires August 31ST 2024
If you want to subscribe to support us and get some very frequent winners please Click Here to become a member of The OddsBreakers and gain access to premium plays BEFORE the line moves! Or, you can visit theoddsbreakers.com and click shop and pick one of our great handicappers including Kiev O’Neil @OBKiev at only $84 per month on a 1 year subscription!
You could also support us at Patreon.com for only $10 a month to help us out and thank us for some free plays as well as get some extra benefits like free merch and more!
We are now in the midst of Preseason action which means real NFL games are just around the corner. I’ve put together 9 preview articles that break down the season win predictions for every team in football, and then look to the playoffs and what teams have value in the futures. I have gone through the entire schedule game by game and have found some great values on season win totals. I’ll highlight my top plays along the way and get you my picks division by division.
My all time tracked record in the NFL currently sits at 228-191-7 with a 3.4% ROI as we had a huge 2021 and a slight winning campaign in 2022 and 2023. You can find all my packages available here at TheOddsBreakers.com
Wanna know anything else? Hit me up on Twitter or whatever it’s called now @TheGreatKnoche.
NFC East
2023 Records
Dallas 12-5/ Philadelphia 11-6/ New York Giants 6-11/ Washington 4-13
Dallas Cowboys
Mike McCarthy took over play calling duties for the Cowboys in 2023 and Dak Prescott responded with his best season ever as he led the league in touchdown passes. Alas it was all for not as the Boys fell at home in the playoffs to the Packers. They also lost a lot of talent from their roster and did not replace it in free agency mostly filling holes in the draft. Tony Pollard is gone, and they bring back Ezekiel Elliot to replace him, but Zeke wasn’t productive last season in New England. I expect Ceedee Lamb to be back, but he is still holding out. Brandin Cooks is a solid number two and Jake Ferguson is a huge safety blanket for Dak. The line is in flux as they will replace both Left Tackle and Center this season and it will likely be the biggest issue on offense.
The defense is still anchored around Micah Parsons and his ability to get to the QB and disrupt plays. They add Eric Kendricks and have a top 5 LB core for sure. They got a little smaller on the DL, but I think with Mike Zimmer coming in he had that as part of his plan. Trevon Diggs and Laron Bland will anchor the outside at corner. Both are feast or famine players causing big turnovers, but also giving up some big plays when taking chances.
I could see both the offense and the defense taking a step back this season especially in the trenches, but I still think there is enough talent on this roster to become the first NFC East repeat champion since 2004. This is likely a make it or break it year for Dak, McCarthy, and maybe even Jerry Jones?
Vegas Win Projection: 9.5 Juiced Over -145, Under +115
Philadelphia Eagles
The Eagles are now the favorites to win the NFC East. They collapsed down the stretch last season especially on the defensive side of the ball. They brought in Vic Fangio to run the defense after one season in Miami so he could be closer to home. I think this is a great move for Philly. The offense however will only go as far as Jalen Hurts takes them. He certainly pressed more in 2023 in the passing game and must slow things down a little bit. Kellen Moore comes i as the new OC, and has experience using a mobile QB from his days in Dallas with Dak. They add a big offensive weapon if he can stay healthy in Saquon Barkley. They extended A.J. Brown and still have top tier #2 Devonta Smith so the offensive firepower is not in question. The OL loses Jason Kelce, but has one of the top pair of tackles in the league and should still be solid.
The defense was and still is the question for the birds who ended last season with just a +5 Point differential despite putting up 433 points. Fangio can do some things, but they have yet to replace the production they lost on the line in 2023 and even took another step back trading Haason Reddick and losing Fletcher Cox to retirement. The linebacker core was weak and I don’t think adding Devon White will change that. The only area of improvement should be in the secondary where they drafted Quinyan Marshall and Cooper DeJean.
This team has the easier schedule than the Cowboys and that could be the difference in the division, but I still think Dallas is the team to beat here.
Vegas Win Projection: 10.5 Juiced Over -145, Under +115
Washington Commanders
New Owners bring in a new GM, Head Coach and Quarterback to kick off their first full season. Dan Quinn replaces Ron Rivera, but the most interesting part was that most of their free agents were brought in on one year deals. They realized they are still rebuilding and need some talent from the draft and a competent QB to compete before they invest heavily in marquee free agents. Jaylon Daniels lands in a great situation With OC and QB guru Kliff Kingsbury. While he didn’t have success in AZ, I believe he will be a perfect fit with Daniels skill set. Terry McLaurin and Jahan Dotson will be his primary threats. Brian Robinson and Austin Ekeler are solid options behind him as well. Tight End got solidified with Zach Ertz and second round pick Ben Sinnott. The OL was awful in 2023, but should be better with signing Tyler Biadasz and Nick Allegretti to contracts.
While they didn’t dish out a lot of long-term deals, they got some guys in free agency on defense in Bobby Wagner and Frankie Luvu that make this linebacker core while a little older one of the sturdiest looking on paper. The DL is strong on the inside, but weaker at DE. The secondary is a weakness, but I love the pick of CB Mike Sainristil who will likely start at nickel back.
Both the Commanders and Giants are going to be bottom of the barrel in 2024, but the prospects for Washington to improve quickly are certainly better than up the road in New York.
Vegas Win Projection: 6.5 Juiced Over -120, Under -110
New York Giants
Paying Daniel Jones was wrong. There was nothing in 2022 that said he should get paid other than a fluky Win/Loss record. The Giants front office is going to pay for it now, and it is possible they don’t survive past year 3 of their tenure. They replaced Saquon Barkley with Devin Singletary, which I don’t hate. The need top draft pick Malik Nabers to be elite for Jones to have a shot at any growth. The OL adds Jon Runyan and two other free agent pieces, but still shapes up as below average in my book. Only 266 points scored in 2023 is miserable. I don’t think it gets much better here in 2024.
Losing DC Wink Martindale after infighting with Daboll isn’t going to endear Daboll more to the team. Wink was well liked by players. They did make one big off-season splash grabbing DL Brian Burns. He adds to a strong pass rush and front seven with second year player Kayvon Thibodeaux and DT Dexter Lawrence. This group will need to get pressure on the QB with just 4 as the secondary lost top safety Xavier McKinney and is likely rolling at least two rookies out on the field to start.
It will need to be a big turnaround on offense for Jones and company or this team could end up being near the bottom of the league in points scored. And if you are bottom of league in points scored, you’re likely gonna be bottom of the league in wins.
Vegas Win Projection: 6.5 Juiced Under -155, Over +125
2024 NFC East Predictions:
Dallas Cowboys 12-5
Philadelphia Eagles 11-6
Washington Commanders 6-11
New York Giants 6-11
NFC East Action:
Dallas Cowboys – Over 9.5 Wins -145 .5 Units, Dallas to Win NFC East +170 .5 Units. Originally this was lean over for me when it was at 10.5, but dropping to 9.5 and getting almost 2 to 1 on the division I decided to split up a unit and stick a few bucks on the Cowboys.
Philadelphia Eagles – No Action. I still don’t trust the defense enough, but I can’t see them losing 9 either.
Washington Commanders – No Action. I think they brought in enough pieces to win some games. Second half schedule is much harder than the first half so there could be some in season under action available here.
New York Giants – Lean Under. I came up with six wins for them on my schedule still, but it just feels like they could see the wheels come flying of the bus very quickly. Schedule gets tough weeks 3-7 and again following their bye weeks 12-16, so I will likely see where they are before the start of Week 3 and decide if I want to pull the trigger on an under.
The Playoffs begin this week at the FedEx St. Jude Championship at TPC Southwind, where the top 70 players in the standings will compete over the next three weeks to reach the season-ending TOUR Championship.
The action kicks off in Memphis, Tennessee, before moving to the BMW Championship at Castle Pines Golf Club in Colorado. Only the top 50 in the FedExCup standings will advance to the second Playoffs event, and just the top 30 will secure a spot in the season finale at the newly restored East Lake Golf Club near Atlanta.
The FedEx Cup is a season-long points competition that culminated with the FedExCup Playoffs. The FedExCup Playoffs is a series of three events that determine the FedExCup Champion.
The top 70 players in the season-long standings qualify for the first of three events (The FedEx St. Jude Championship). This is the only event of the three to have a cut after 36 holes. After this week’s event, only the top 50 players will qualify for the next event, the BMW Championship. Following that tournament, the final event of the playoffs takes place, the TOUR Championship.
In the TOUR Championship, only the top 30 players qualify and the points leader in the FedExCup will start the event at 10-under par. The No. 2 player will start at 8 under. The No. 3 player starts at 7 under; the No. 4 player starts at 6 under; the No. 5 player starts at 5 under. Players 6-10 start at 4 under; players 11-15 start at 3 under; players 16-20 start at 2 under; players 21-25 start at 1 under; and players 26-30 start at even par.
Course/ Tournament History:
TPC Southwind has hosted a PGA Tour event every year since 1989. This course has some rare bragging rights as it’s one of the only courses to host three different PGA Tour events. From 1989-2018, the FedEx St. Jude Classic was held here. In 2019, the WGC-FedEx St. Jude Invitational replaced that event and was relocated from Firestone Country Club in Akron, Ohio. Up until 2021, TPC Southwind has hosted that event.
TPC Southwind’s first major renovation took place in 2004 with the main goal of “modernizing” the course. The course was lengthened out adding 11 new tees, and 15 new bunkers while enlarging three ponds and adding some additional foliage. The greens were also changed from bentgrass to Champion bermudagrass.
In 2020, the course underwent a minor renovation with every bunker being re-contoured in some sort. Some were also added making the course a little more difficult.
The FedEx St. Jude Championship replaced the Northern Trust as the first stop in the FedEx Cup Playoffs in 2022. This will be the third time that a FedExCup Playoff event has been held at this course.
61, Tom Lewis (Round 3, 2020), Bob Estes (Round 1, 2001), Jay Delsing (Round 4, 1993)
Course Guide/ Scorecard:
Originally crafted by Ron Prichard in 1988, TPC Southwind features a Par 70 layout, comprising four Par 3s, twelve Par 4s, and two Par 5s.
The four Par 3’s (No. 4, No. 8, No. 11, & No. 14) at TPC Southwind range between 162 yards and 205 yards. Last year, all of the Par 3’s had a scoring average under par except for No. 14 (+0.093).
No. 11, 162 Yards, Par 3: A smaller version of the famous 17th island green at TPC Sawgrass, but with its own uniqueness. This signature hole requires a short iron over water to a green with a small pot bunker that guards the front edge.
No. 14, 205 Yards, Par 3: The signature par 3 14th plays from an elevated tee with a full carry over water to a severely undulating green. A very difficult hole set among a natural amphitheater, making for great viewing down the stretch.
There are twelve Par 4s at TPC Southwind.No. 15 is the shortest Par 4 listed at 395 yards with the longest being No. 17, playing 505 yards. In terms of scoring average, the toughest Par 4 on the course last year was No. 5 (+0.146).
No. 9, 457 Yards, Par 4: A long dogleg to the right, slightly downhill with the second shot over a lake that is front of the green. The player needs a lot of length to get in position for the approach to the green. Ideal drive is past the large tree on the right of the fairway to ensure an open shot to the green.
No. 18, 453 Yards, Par 4: An excellent finishing hole that places a great demand off the tee. This dogleg left has water that comes into play on the first two shots, as well as fairway bunkers on the right. Spectator mounds surround the medium-sized green.
There are two Par 5’s at TPC Southwind, No. 3 & No. 16. They both played under par last year, with the easiest hole on the course being No. 16 with a scoring average of 4.372.
No. 3, 579 Yards, Par 5: The first par 5 hole plays downhill with a lake along the right side of the fairway and green.
No. 16, 530 Yards, Par 5: The par 5 16th has an uphill tee shot with a slight dogleg left. Depending on the drive, there is a good opportunity to hit the green in two, but there is a large bunker complex surrounding the front and sides and a steep collection area long.
Per DataGolf, this is the favored skillset at TPC Southwind.
Strokes Gained: Off the Tee
Success this week will hinge on players’ ability to position themselves effectively off the tee. While the course’s considerable length underscores the significance of distance, precision holds equal importance.
Leaders in this category in the last 24 Rounds:
Rory McIlroy
Min Woo Lee
Jhonattan Vegas
Scottie Scheffler
Viktor Hovland
Ludvig Aberg
Collin Morikawa
Tom Kim
Xander Schauffele
Jordan Spieth
Strokes Gained: Approach
Having a strong iron game will be important this week if players want to succeed at TPC Southwind.
Leaders in this category in the last 24 Rounds:
Scottie Scheffler
Tony Finau
Xander Schauffele
Ben Griffin
Collin Morikawa
Corey Conners
Tom Hoge
Brian Harman
Rory McIlroy
Sepp Straka
Strokes Gained: Putting (Bermudagrass)
The Greens at TPC Southwind are Champion bermudagrass .090”.
Leaders in this category in the last 24 Rounds:
Denny McCarthy
Nick Taylor
Russell Henley
Ben Griffin
Sahith Theegala
Thomas Detry
Xander Schauffele
Harris English
Max Greyserman
Billy Horschel
Par 3 Scoring: 150-175 Yards (x2)
Two of the four Par 3’s at TPC Southwind range between 150-175 Yards.
Leaders in Par 3 Scoring: 150-175 Yards in the last 24 Rounds:
Collin Morikawa
Xander Schauffele
Scottie Scheffler
Corey Conners
Eric Cole
Wyndham Clark
Erik van Rooyen
Hideki Matsuyama
Mackenzie Hughes
Brian Harman
Par 4 Scoring: 450-500 Yards (x6)
Six of the twelve Par 4’s at TPC Southwind range between 450-500 Yards.
Leaders in Par 4 Scoring: 450-500 Yards in the last 24 Rounds:
Scottie Scheffler
Xander Schauffele
Rory McIlroy
Aaron Rai
Collin Morikawa
Keegan Bradley
Alex Noren
Ludvig Aberg
Nick Taylor
Max Greyserman
Scrambling Gained
A player’s ability to recover and save par after missing the green in regulation will be crucial this week. The ability to recover from these situations and save par can make the difference between maintaining a competitive score and falling behind. High scrambling percentages contribute directly to lower scores.
Leaders in this category in the last 24 Rounds:
Hideki Matsuyama
Billy Horschel
Xander Schauffele
Rory McIlroy
Mackenzie Hughes
Keegan Bradley
Brian Harman
Sam Burns
Christiaan Bezuidenhout
Max Homa
Proximity Gained: 125-175 Yards
Most approach shots on at TPC Southwind come from the 125-175 yard range at a volume much higher than the PGA Tour average.
Leaders in Proximity Gained: 125-150 Yards in the last 24 Rounds:
Tom Hoge
Shane Lowry
Sungjae Im
Tom Kim
Akshay Bhatia
Russell Henley
Ludvig Aberg
Scottie Scheffler
Corey Conners
Tommy Fleetwood
Leaders in Proximity Gained: 150-175 Yards in the last 24 Rounds:
Scottie Scheffler
Seamus Power
Matt Fitzpatrick
Nick Dunlap
Brian Harman
Ben Griffin
Stephan Jaeger
Rory McIlroy
Tony Finau
Sepp Straka
Comparable Courses and Event History
Looking at the Data Golf Course History Tool, prior experience at TPC Southwind has proven to be slightly advantageous.
The Field:
This year’s FedEx St. Jude Championship will feature a total of 70 competitors.
Here is the current basis of qualification for each entrant this week:
Top 70 Players in the FedEx Cup Standings
Previous Winners in the Field (Event):
Will Zalatoris (’22)
Debutants in the Field (Event):
Akshay Bhatia, Austin Eckroat, Davis Thompson, Jake Knapp, Ludvig Aberg, Matthieu Pavon, Max Greyserman, Nick Dunlap
2023: Lucas Glover (-15) – FedEx St. Jude Championship – TPC Southwind
Price: 70-1
2022: Will Zalatoris (-15) – FedEx St. Jude Championship – TPC Southwind
Price: 28-1
2021: Tony Finau (-20) – THE NORTHERN TRUST – Liberty National
Price: 60-1
2020: Dustin Johnson (-30) – THE NORTHERN TRUST – TPC Boston
Price: 20-1
2022: Patrick Reed (-16) – THE NORTHERN TRUST – Liberty National
Price: 55-1
Previous Winners Incoming Form (Last 5 Starts):
2023: Lucas Glover (-15) – FedEx St. Jude Championship – TPC Southwind
WON – Wyndham Championship (PGA)
MC – 3M Open (PGA)
5 – Barbasol Championship (PGA)
T6 – John Deere Classic (PGA)
T4 – Rocket Mortgage Classic (PGA)
2022: Will Zalatoris (-15) – FedEx St. Jude Championship – TPC Southwind
T21 – Wyndham Championship (PGA)
T20 – Rocket Mortgage Classic (PGA)
T28 – The Open Championship (MAJ)
MC – Genesis Scottish Open (PGA)
T2 – U.S. Open (MAJ)
2021: Tony Finau (-20) – THE NORTHERN TRUST – Liberty National
T34 – WGC-FedEx St. Jude Invitational (PGA)
T28 – 3M Open (PGA)
T15 – The Open Championship (MAJ)
MC – Travelers Championship (PGA)
MC – U.S. Open (MAJ)
2020: Dustin Johnson (-30) – THE NORTHERN TRUST – TPC Boston
T2 – PGA Championship (PGA)
T12 – WGC-FedEx St. Jude Invitational (PGA)
WD – 3M Open (PGA)
MC – the Memorial Tournament (PGA)
WON – Travelers Championship (PGA)
2022: Patrick Reed (-16) – THE NORTHERN TRUST – Liberty National
T22 – Wyndham Championship (PGA)
T12 – WGC-FedEx St. Jude Invitational (PGA)
10 – The Open Championship (MAJ)
T23 – 3M Open (PGA)
T5 – Rocket Mortgage Classic (PGA)
Picks:
Outrights:
Hideki Matsuyama (+2800) – FanDuel
Risk 0.29 to win 8.12 Units
Tom Kim (+3300) – BetMGM
Risk 0.25 to win 8.25 Units
Sungjae Im (+4000) – FanDuel
Risk 0.20 to win 8.00 Units
Sahith Theegala (+4500) – FanDuel
Risk 0.18 to win 8.10 Units
Total Risk on Outrights: 0.92 Units
Top 20:
Billy Horschel (+115) – BetMGM
Risk 1.00 to win 1.15 Units
Adam Scott (+140) – BetMGM
Risk 1.00 to win 1.40 Units
Total Risk on Top 20s: 2.00 Units
As always, all of my placement bets are through BetMGM as they’re one of the only books without dead-heat rules. If you’d like to bet these placements at BetMGM, you can get up to $1500 in Bonus Bets if you don’t win if you’re a first-time user. Must Be 21+. Gambling Problem? Call or Text 1-800-GAMBLER.
Total Risk on the FedEx St. Jude Championship: 2.92 Units
Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting. Any feedback whether positive or negative is always encouraged.
