- The Broncos out-gained the Steelers 295 to 251 yet lost 13-6. A 2-0 turnover ratio and poor third down efficiency 2/12 killed the Horses.
- The Bengals out-gained the Chiefs 320 to 286 yet lost 26-25. Just a rough 4th down PI call got the Bengals.
- The Lions out-gained the Bucs 463 to 216 yet lost 20-16. A 2-1 turnover ratio and just bad field position and red zone efficiency got the Lions.
- The Titans out-gained the Jets 300 to 265 yet lost 24-17. A 2-0 boneheaded Will Levis turnover special did in the Titans.
- The Jaguars out-gained the Browns 323-297 yet lost 18-13. Just bad + field efficiency and special teams hurt the Jaguars.
- Miami’s yards were mainly garbage yards.
- The Ravens out-gained the Raiders 383 to 260 yet lost 26-23. Lamar being very un-clutch and very dishonest officiating for a +94 penalty yards for the Raiders killed the Ravens.
NFL Week 2 Misleading Final Scores
College Football Week 4 Betting Spots
Let Down Spots:
- Memphis at Navy after beating Florida State is huge.
- Washington State hosting San Jose State after beating Washington is one for sure.
- Northern Illinois hosting Buffalo still partying after the Notre Dame win.
- Toledo at Western Kentucky after beating Mississippi State out-right.
- Tulane is in a rough spot at Louisiana after playing well and losing vs two good power 4 teams.
Get Up Spots:
- Vanderbilt at Missouri after losing to Georgia State
- Florida State hosting Cal after losing out-right to Memphis
- Washington hosting Northwestern.
Look ahead spots:
- Louisville looking past Georgia Tech to Notre Dame is possible.
- Kentucky could be flat vs Ohio looking to Ole Miss.
- Kansas State could look past BYU to Oklahoma State
- Virginia tech looking past Rutgers to Miami is possible.
- Michigan State looking past Boston College to Ohio State is possible.
Long Rest:
- ASU has an extra 2 days of rest at Texas Tech
- Kansas State has an extra few days of rest to face BYU
- South Alabama has an extra few days rest to go to App State
- Army hosting Rice after a bye
- Bowling Green at Texas A&M after a bye
- Clemson hosting NC State after a bye
- Iowa State hosting Arkansas State after a bye
- James Madison at North Carolina after a bye
- Louisiana hosting Tulane after a bye
- UL Monroe at Texas after a bye
- Louisville hosting Georgia tech after a bye
- Navy hosting Memphis after a bye
- Northern Illinois hosting Buffalo after a bye and let down spot
- Penn State hosting Kent State after a bye
- Rutgers at Virginia Tech after a bye
- SMU hosting TCU after a bye
- USC at Michigan after a bye
College Football Week 3 Misleading Final Scores
Not many from last weekend!
- Kansas Out-gained UNLV 352 to 267 yet lost 23-20. A 2-0 turnover ratio and bad red zone killed the Jay-Hawks.
- Florida Atlantic only out-gained FIU 420-368 yet won 38-20. A HUGE 5-0 turnover ratio hurt the Panthers.
- Kentucky out-gained Georgia 284 to 262 yet lost 13-12. A 1-0 turnover ratio did not help.
Fantasy Football Week 3
Bye Weeks: None
Key Injuries:
RB CMC to miss at least 3 more games.
RB Isaiah Pacheco with a broken fibula and out 6-8 weeks.
RB Tank Bigsby with a shoulder injury.
WR David Bell with a dislocated hip.
WR Amon Ra St Brown with a knee.
QB Justin Herbert with an ankle
WR Cooper Kupp with a bad ankle injury and will miss at least 4 weeks.
WR Justin Jefferson with a Quad, but should be back.
RB TyJae Spears with an ankle injury
QB Tua Tagovailoa with another concussion and is week to week.
RB Rachaad White with a groin injury.
WR Deebo Samuel will miss a few weeks with a calf strain.
Waiver Wire:
RB Samaje Perine for the Pacheco injury is huge.
RB Carson Steele also for the Pacheco injury might be bigger.
RB Bucky Irving might take over for the Buccaneers.
RB D’Onta Foreman had 14 carries last week.
RB Cam Akers for the Mixon Injury.
RB Dameon Pierce for the Mixon Injury.
WR Demarcus Robinson for the Kupp Injury.
WR Tutu Atwell for the Kupp Injury as well.
RB Julius Chestnut for the Tyjae Spears injury.
QB Andy Dalton is back and replacing Bryce Young as a starter.
QB Skyler Thompson will stream this week for the Dolphins.
RB Braelon Allen looks good so far for the Jets.
WR Quentin Johnson had two touchdowns. He’s tall and will get end zone targets.
TE Hunter Henry had 12 targets last game.
TE Brenton Strange for the strange Evan Engram pregame injury.
RB Isaac Guerendo is 49ers new handcuff for a few weeks.
TE Mike Gesicki got 9 targets vs the refs last week.
WR Chris Conley for the Deebo injury.
DEF Titans
Non-Starters trending up for week 3
RB Bucky Irving will be big against the Broncos D.
DEF Titans should stop the Packers and Malik Willis.
QB Andy Dalton vs the Raiders is interesting.
RB Alexander Mattison against the Panthers is big.
QB Gardner Minshew vs the Panthers is nice.
QB DeShawn Watson vs the Giants is big.
WR Jerry Jeudy vs the Giants is nice.
WR Jameson Williams vs the Cardinals D.
QB Jayden Daniels vs the Bengals might work out.
RB Zach Moss vs the Commanders is a good choice.
WR Chris Conley against the Rams.
WR Brandon Aiyuk vs the Rams for sure.
Busts:
RB Deandre Swift is un-startable. He looks bad and so does the play calling.
QB Malik Willis vs the Titans will bust.
QB Matt Stafford vs the 49ers is bad.
RB Kyren Williams is shot now with no offensive line, and he should be traded if possible.
RB Najee Harris vs the Chargers D is suspect.
RB Saquon Barkley vs the Saints is scary.
QB Anthony Richardson vs the Bears D is dangerous.
RB JK Dobbins vs the Steelers is scary.
QB Justin Herbert vs TJ Watt is questionable too.
WR Tyreke Hill until further notice is very worrisome.
WR Jalen Waddle is scary vs the Seahawks.
Nasty Sleeper: RB D’Onta Foreman vs the Giants will eat.
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Podcast 625 – 70 – 24 – College Football & NFL Recap – Fantasy Football Week 3 – Sports Betting
We have a GREAT show for you today! Another week in the books and now it’s time to recap and do some analysis! First, Kiev recaps the weekend with the good, the bad, and the ugly. Next, we talk some misleading final scores with brief box score analysis. Then, Kiev talks about the NFL and College Football betting spots for next week. Who could let down? Who has a short week? After that, we give out a Free Play for the upcoming weekend. Finally, Dave (D-Nasty) come back to break down some fantasy football. We talk key injuries, waiver wire, Should you have any questions for the podcast, or games that you want us to cap during our shows, please message us at Info@TheOddsBreakers.com. Have a wonderful week!
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NFL Week 2 Sharp Money Movement
As of Wednesday Sept 11th
Sharp Money On:
- Chargers -3.5 to -5.5 at the Panthers – 25% tickets and 84% of the money.
- Lions -6 to -7.5 hosting the Buccaneers – 12% tickets and 70% of the money.
- Jaguars -2 to -3 hosting the Browns – 12% ticket and 93% of the money.
- Eagles -4 to -6.5 hosting the Falcons – 17% tickets and 94% of the money.
Sharp Totals:
- Bills vs Dolphins under 51 to 49 – 27% tickets and 70% of the money.
- Raiders vs Ravens under 44.5 to 41.5 – 15% tickets and 50% of the money.
- Browns vs Jaguars under 44.5 to 41.5 – 21% tickets and 55% of the money.
- Bucs vs Lions over 48.5 to 51 – 65% Tickets and 85% of the money.
NFL Week 2 Free Plays – Sports Betting – Saints vs Cowboys
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Kiev O'Neil's Sports Betting Stats and Records!
56% 139-109-5 up 22 units in the 2023 NFL Season!
55% 101-82-8 up 10 units in 2024 MLB Thus Far on 8/05/24!
2023 MLB Season 146-123-7 up 11U
2023/2024 College Basketball up 9U
63% for 2022/2023 NBA sides and totals! 22-13 up 6.5 units. 14% ROI
55% All Time NFL Sides, Teasers, Parlays, Props and Totals! 5.21% ROI
56% 2022/2023 NFL Season 136-109-11 in Sides/Totals/Teasers/Season props up 38.5U
55% All Time College Football Sides, Teasers, Parlays, Props and Totals! 4.75% ROI
63% FOR 2022 COLLEGE BOWL SEASON UP 27 UNITS!
54% Lifetime All Plays in College Basketball 3% ROI
38% Lifetime UFC On All Plays 3% ROI
62% 2022 March Madness College Basketball Plays at 30% ROI!!!
Saints vs Cowboys -6 O/U 46.5
There isn’t much better than over-reaction week, and I think this line fits in perfectly. The Saints aren’t a bad team per-say, but lets face it. They aren’t average, and if you think that they are average, then you haven’t watched Derek Carr play a lot of football. The Panthers got beat bad last week, but it was more about just being in bad positions and the randomness of football itself. The Panthers needed a pass rush last week and didn’t have one. One thing that the Cowboys do best on defense is a pass rush. Micah Parsons is a complete animal, and he will get to Derek Carr. The Cowboys offense really hasn’t lost a beat. Their only issue is that TE Jake Ferguson will miss the game, but backup TE Luke Schoonmaker is a solid replacement player. Wideouts CeeDee Lamb and Brandin Cooks will be cooking the Saints defense as cornerback Marshon Lattimore is banged up, and Safety Tyrann Mathieu is far past his prime. The Saints also lost some of their depth at linebacker as D’Marco Jackson is out, and Jaylan Ford is questionable. DT Khalen Saunders is also out that should hurt the Saints run defense. I think that the Cowboys should be able to roll this team at home. I have this game Cowboys -8. Take dem boys and lay dem points.
Cowboys -6 – 2 stars
Steelers vs Broncos -2.5 O/U 36.5
It looks like Justin Fields will once again get the nod at quarterback today for the steel machine. There is a lot of variance with Justin which makes it tough to bet on the side, but it also makes the total more interesting. Fields will make some big plays on the ground with his feet. He also has some pretty good wide-outs to throw too. The big thing that Steelers fans have to worry about with fields is the turnovers. Last year, Fields fumbled the ball 10 times, and he also was picked off 9 times. Denver on the other hand has a terrible defense, and we saw all of that last week in Seattle. In 2023, this team ranked 25th in defensive EPA and that was before they lost some of their great players this year to free agency. I expect the Steelers to put up 20 points. On the other hand, Bo Nix in his small preseason sample size showed that he is actually quite a capable quarterback. He knows how to make some plays with his arm as well as his legs. He also has some pretty good playmakers at WR with Courtland Sutton and Josh Reynolds. With the Broncos at home, this total is just too small for this game. Any special teams touchdown or pick six blows this wide open if needed. Take the over.
Over 36.5 – 2 stars
Teaser 6 pt: Lions to -1.5 with the Broncos to +8.5 – 2.5 stars
