As far as props go, we are all well-aware that not just in the Super Bowl (which was usually the only major prop contest of the year), PROPS have really exploded over recent years. Every single game in every sport, every day you’ll find a list of prop bets available to you longer than your arm. Listen folks, when it comes to props, if it doesn’t give you value, step away. If you just want to bet some props for poops and giggles, then bet 20 props for 10 bucks a game, and have all the poops and giggles you can possibly handle. However, if you’re serious about making money, be disciplined. Let me tell you what I mean by that: There is a prop out there about Patrick Mahomes throwing a touchdown; Will Mahomes throw a TD? Do I think he’s gonna’ throw a TD? I think he’s gonna’ throw several TD’s. But the odds on him to throw a TD, ranges from -450 to -500. There is no value in it my friends. There is no value at all. Listen, God forbid on the first series of the game he gets hurt and he is sidelined, then you are screwed. And to be honest with you, unless you’re betting hundreds of thousands of dollars, there’s no significant profit in it anyway. Let it go. Below are some props that I really feel strongly about. They are all props that I feel give us value.
PROPS
These are the props I feel are most “valuable” and the ones with a star are stronger, two stars are really strong as far as “value” goes.
Will the game be tied after 0-0? YES +145 *
Shortest FG of game 27.5 yards. UNDER -110 *
Will there be a ST or Defensive TD? Yes +250 *
Longest rush by Purdy 6.5 yards. OVER Even Money
Total TD passes by Purdy 1.5. OVER -110
Total receiving yards by Kittle 49.5. OVER -110 *
Will Kittle score a TD? Yes +170
Total TD passes by Mahomes 2. OVER +170
Will Pacheco score a TD? Yes +120
10)Total receiving yards by Kelce 72.5. OVER -110 *
11)Longest reception by Kelce 21.5 yards. OVER Even Money
Just like me, I’m going to keep this analysis very short and extremely sweet (lol. While, both defenses have consistently been two of the best in the NFL, I feel that both offenses can and will exploit their opponents’ defensive units here. Both offensive units have amazing receivers and great ground games as well. Mind you, a lot of people out there think the under is going to be a big play. But I think you’re going to see two smart coaches with two smart quarterbacks commanding two very successful offensive units. Defense will probably win the game in the end. But only after a lot of scoring. Just FYI, the 49ers have played to 10 overs, eight unders, and one push. While the Chiefs have played to mostly unders this season, playing in the Super Bowl is a whole different monster. I see both teams scoring quite a bit consistently throughout the game. Take the over. Thank you.
Hello friends, in all sincerity, I feel both of these teams deserve to be playing in the Super Bowl. As a matter fact, I predicted in the preseason, that these two teams would be playing for this season’s Lombardi Trophy (notice they named it after an Italian lol). Having said that, with all respect to the San Francisco 49ers and Brock Purdy, they just have proven that they could win at this level. I know Purdy was not there a few years back when the 49ers made it to the Super Bowl. But I still feel that they are a little bit short of what they need to do to win the Super Bowl. Whether you like it or not, Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs are the new Tom Brady and the Patriots. Not only have they gotten here quite a few times over the last several seasons, but they have prevailed on this platform. I have said it before and I will say it again, whatever you did prior to the Super Bowl does not matter. It is a moot point. Patrick Mahomes is a money player. He comes up big in big game situations. If you are worried about the hype about this team not being what they were, or that their defense can’t stop the rush, just look at the Conference title game against a Ravens opponent, which happened to be the NFL’s top-rushing offense. They possess a defensive unit that has not allowed a single opponent to put up better than 27 points this season. My friends, after the Conference Title win, Patrick Mahomes was interviewed, and made it a point to say that the team was cognizant of being an underdog there. HMMM. How would you feel if you were the heavyweight champion of the world, and yet you faced the new kid on the block and were an underdog? Trust me when I tell you, Mahomes and the Chief will take care of business here and probably win this game outright. But I will take the points to err on the side of caution. Kansas City is the play plus the points. Thank you.7
AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am was cut short due to inclement weather conditions on Sunday. Wyndham Clark shot a 60 on Saturday giving him a one-shot lead over the field. It’s certainly disappointing that we didn’t get a final round at Pebble Beach. This has now become a theme at Pebble Beach as we haven’t had a Sunday finish in the past two years.
LIV Mayakoba was the only game in town on Sunday for golf fans. Joaquin Niemann defeated Sergio Garcia in a four-hole playoff to capture his first victory on the LIV Tour. Although he currently lacks sufficient OWGR points to secure entry into any of the Majors, he’s certainly a contender worth keeping an eye on. Niemann’s extensive participation in DPWT events and notable performances suggest he’s poised to become a familiar presence on that tour as he strives for qualification.
Let’s get into this week’s storylines…
Scottie Scheffler, the current favorite, will look to win his third consecutive WM Phoenix Open. If he’s able to do so, he’ll become the first player since Steve Sticker to do so (John Deere Classic from 2009-11). Scottie won his first PGA Tour event at TPC Scottsdale back in 2022. Since then, he has won five other events including the Masters.
Both Xander Schauffele and Viktor Hovland have pulled out of this event. Despite Hovland’s victory at the TOUR Championship last year, his performance has faltered this season, culminating in a T22 finish at The Sentry and a T58 finish at Pebble Beach last week. Meanwhile, Xander Schauffele, previously viewed as one of the top contenders for this week’s event due to his strong course history and recent form, encountered challenges at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am, finishing T54.
Bud Cauley is set to debut on the TOUR for the first time since the 2020 Fortinet Championship. His return marks a significant milestone after spending much of the last five years on the sidelines due to injuries sustained in a 2018 car accident. Prior to his comeback, Cauley participated in consecutive events on the Korn Ferry Tour earlier this year, finishing T21-T35 as he worked to regain his competitive edge. With 27 starts remaining on his Major Medical Exemption, he aims to secure just over 391 points to maintain his tour card.
The weather is also projected to be a factor as it’s slated to rain Thursday through Saturday. Last year, we had weather issues at this event with the start of play being delayed due to frost. This caused issues with players finishing their rounds on both Thursday and Friday.
Course/ Tournament History:
The Phoenix Open originated in 1932 under the name of the Arizona Open. It was then switched to the Phoenix Open in 1934 but after the 1935 edition, the tournament was discontinued. In 1939, the Phoenix Open returned with Byron Nelson winning by twelve strokes.
In 1987 the event moved to TPC Scottsdale where it is currently held. Before TPC Scottsdale, the tournament was held at Phoenix Country Club and Arizona Country Club. Waste Management took over the naming rights in 2010 and has retained the rights ever since.
TPC Scottsdale was built in 1986 and features two championship courses: the Stadium Course and the Champions Course. The Stadium Course, designed by Tom Weiskopf and Jay Morrish. Over the years, TPC Scottsdale has undergone renovations and enhancements. In addition to the WM Phoenix Open, TPC Scottsdale has hosted various other professional tournaments, including events on the PGA Tour Champions and Korn Ferry Tour.
The WM Phoenix Open holds the record for the highest single-day attendance in PGA Tour history. The tournament routinely attracts massive crowds, particularly during the raucous Saturday round, known as “The People’s Open.” The tournament is famous for its rowdy atmosphere, particularly at the par-3 16th hole, where fans create a stadium-like environment. Players are often greeted with cheers or jeers, depending on their performance.
The WM Phoenix Open has a significant charitable component, with proceeds from the event benefiting various organizations in the Phoenix area. It’s one of the most philanthropic events on the PGA Tour.
256, Mark Calcavecchia (2001), Phil Mickelson (2013)
18-Hole Record:
60, Grant Waite (Final round, 1996), Mark Calcavecchia (Round 2, 2001), Phil Mickelson (Round 2, 2005; Round 1, 2013)
Course Guide/ Scorecard:
TPC Scottsdale was originally designed by Tom Weiskopf and Jay Morris and underwent renovations in 2014. It’s a Par 71 that’s listed at 7,216 yards. It features four Par 3’s, twelve Par 4’s, and two Par 5’s. TPC Scottsdale is a classic desert layout with firm fairways allowing for some of the shorter players off the tee to find success here. The elevation also plays a factor that provides additional support in terms of length. Accuracy off the tee is key this week with TPC Scottsdale having some of the narrowest fairways on Tour.
The four Par 3’s range from 163 to 215 yards. Last year, all of the Par 3’s had a scoring average over par.
No. 16, 163 yards, Par 3: This is the signature hole on the course and what most spectators come to the event for. It’s truly an atmosphere, unlike any other hole on the PGA Tour. Several bunkers surround the green which is the only threat players will face.
There are eleven Par 4’s at TPC Scottsdale with the majority of those holes ranging between 400 and 500 yards. In terms of scoring average, the toughest Par 4 on the course last year was No. 11.
No. 14, 490 Yards, Par 4: This is another challenging hole that also played over par last year. Off the tee, players will have an uphill shot that’s fairly straightforward. The difficulty comes into play on their approach shot with an elevated green that’s protected by bunkers. If players do miss left of the putting surface it’ll make an up-and-down significantly more difficult.
No. 17, 332 yards, Par 4: This is a drivable short par 4 that players will need to compose themselves for after playing the 16th. Water does come into play along the left side so any miss should be right.
There are three Par 5s on the course, No. 3, No. 13, and No. 15. All of these holes had a scoring average under par in 2023. Hole No. 13 was the easiest hole on the course last year with a scoring average of 0.56 below par.
No. 3, 558 yards, Par 5: This is the first Par 5 that players will face on the course. Off the tee, players will try to avoid fairway bunkers along the left side allowing them to go for the green in two. They’ll face a two-tiered green on their approach shot which can lead to some difficult putts depending on the pin location.
Featured/ Signature Hole(s): 16
For a hole-by-hole overview of the course, you can click the following link.
Key Statistics:
Statistics
PGA Tour Average
TPC Scottsdale
Driving Distance (Yards)
283.62
268.21
Driving Accuracy
62%
72%
GIR Percentage
66%
64%
Avg GIR Prox to Hole (Feet)
29.08
26.67
Scrambling Percentage
58%
57%
Avg 3 Putts / Round
0.55
0.50
Strokes Gained: Approach
Excellent approach play has been a key factor in determining success at this week’s tournament. Over the past eight editions of the WM Phoenix Open, six of the winners have ranked 4th or higher in Strokes Gained: Approach among the field.
Leaders in this category in the last 36 Rounds:
Scottie Scheffler (Total: +49.82, Per Round: +1.38)
Lucas Glover (Total: +43.57, Per Round: +1.21)
Sam Ryder (Total: +33.94, Per Round: +0.94)
Gary Woodland (Total: +28.64, Per Round: +0.80)
Eric Cole (Total: +26.48, Per Round: +0.74)
Strokes Gained: Putting (Poa)
The green complexes at TPC Scottsdale are Poa trivialis / perennial rye overseed .100′.
Leaders in this category in the last 36 Rounds:
Denny McCarthy (Total: +42.31, Per Round: +1.18)
Maverick McNealy (Total: +29.93, Per Round: +0.83)
Peter Malnati (Total: +28.76, Per Round: +0.80)
Max Homa (Total: +27.70, Per Round: +0.77)
Wyndham Clark (Total: +24.73, Per Round: +0.69)
Par 3 Scoring: 175-200 Yards (x2)
Two of the four Par 3’s at TPC Scottsdale range between 175-200 Yards.
Leaders in this category in the last 36 Rounds:
Eric Cole (Total: +10.65, Per Round: +0.30)
Max Homa (Total: +9.50, Per Round: +0.26)
Daniel Berger (Total: +8.63, Per Round: +0.24)
Brandon Wu (Total: +8.62, Per Round: +0.24)
Christiaan Bezuidenhout (Total: +7.95, Per Round: +0.22)
There are eleven Par 4’s at TPC Scottsdale. Ten of the eleven Par 4’s range between 400-500 yards.
Leaders in Par 4 Scoring: 400-450 Yards in the last 36 Rounds:
Min Woo Lee (Total: +21.61, Per Round: +0.60)
Byeong Hun An (Total: +19.65, Per Round: +0.55)
Scottie Scheffler (Total: +19.55, Per Round: +0.54)
Adam Scott (Total: +18.90, Per Round: +0.52)
Beau Hossler (Total: +18.76, Per Round: +0.52)
Leaders in Par 4 Scoring: 450-500 Yards in the last 36 Rounds:
Eric Cole (Total: +18.43, Per Round: +0.51)
Ryan Fox (Total: +17.67, Per Round: +0.49)
Beau Hossler (Total: +15.98, Per Round: +0.44)
Denny McCarthy (Total: +15.51, Per Round: +0.43)
Wyndham Clark (Total: +15.20, Per Round: +0.42)
Par 5 Scoring: 550-600 Yards (x3)
All of the three Par 5’s at TPC Scottsdale range between 550-600 Yards.
Leaders in this category in the last 36 Rounds:
Jordan Spieth (Total: +16.71, Per Round: +0.46)
Aaron Rai (Total: +16.20, Per Round: +0.45)
Rickie Fowler (Total: +14.42, Per Round: +0.40)
Max Homa (Total: +14.15, Per Round: +0.39)
Wyndham Clark (Total: +13.36, Per Round: +0.37)
Proximity Gained: 150-200 Yards
Below is the approach shot distribution chart from last year’s event (via DataGolf). Most approach shots come from the 150-200 yard range at a volume much higher than the PGA Tour average.
Leaders in Proximity Gained from 150-175 yards in the last 36 Rounds:
Lucas Glover (Total: +417.04, Per Round: +11.58)
Sam Ryder (Total: +395.37, Per Round: +10.98)
Brandon Wu (Total: +363.80, Per Round: +10.11)
Akshay Bhatia (Total: +347.48, Per Round: +9.65)
Nicolas Echavarria (Total: +345.82, Per Round: +9.61)
Leaders in Proximity Gained from 175-200 yards in the last 36 Rounds:
Gary Woodland (Total: +574.93, Per Round: +15.97)
Eric Cole (Total: +487.11, Per Round: +13.53)
Justin Lower (Total: +441.74, Per Round: +12.27)
Scottie Scheffler (Total: +426.13, Per Round: +11.84)
Chez Reavie (Total: +404.60, Per Round: +11.24)
Birdies or Better Gained
Leaders in this category in the last 36 Rounds:
Eric Cole (Total: +48.69, Per Round: +1.35)
Scottie Scheffler (Total: +33.99, Per Round: +0.94)
J.T. Poston (Total: +33.69, Per Round: +0.94)
Adam Scott (Total: +31.99, Per Round: +0.89)
Byeong Hun An (Total: +26.43, Per Round: +0.73)
Scrambling Gained
Leaders in this category in the last 36 Rounds:
Brendon Todd (Total: +17.90, Per Round: +0.50)
Aaron Baddeley (Total: +17.36, Per Round: +0.48)
Brian Harman (Total: +16.79, Per Round: +0.47)
Taylor Montgomery (Total: +16.30, Per Round: +0.45)
Denny McCarthy (Total: +15.69, Per Round: +0.44)
Comparable Courses and Event History
Looking at the Data Golf Course History Tool, good course history is indicative of success at TPC Scottsdale. Each of the past eight winners have played in this tournament before winning and has registered a top-10 finish or better.
Leaders in this category in the last (Multiple Events Played):
There will be 132 players competing in this year’s tournament. Nine of the top twenty players in the Official World Golf Ranking are in the field. Here are the current favorites in this week’s event:
Scottie Scheffler (+450) has secured consecutive victories at the WM Phoenix Open. His track record at TPC Scottsdale includes a T7 finish in 2021 and a missed cut in the preceding year. Although he hasn’t clinched a win yet in the 2024 Season, his performance has been consistent with finishes at T6 (AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am), T17 (The American Express), and T5 (The Sentry) in his initial three starts.”
Justin Thomas (+1000) faced challenges last season but appears to have made a comeback. Starting the 2024 season, he secured a T3 finish at The American Express and followed up with a strong T6 performance at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am. Moreover, his remarkable track record at the WM Phoenix Open includes top-20 finishes in each of his last six appearances, showcasing his prowess on the course.
Max Homa (+1400) is set to participate in his sixth WM Phoenix Open. While he’s never missed a cut in this tournament, he’s only managed to break into the top 20 twice. His most notable performance was in 2020, where he secured a T6 finish. Last week’s AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am saw Homa facing difficulties, finishing T66 out of a field of 80. However, in his two other starts this year, he achieved solid finishes, securing T13 at the Farmers Insurance Open and T14 at The Sentry.
Jordan Spieth (+1800) boasts a noteworthy track record at TPC Scottsdale, with top-10 finishes in four out of his seven appearances at this event. However, in last week’s competition, Spieth concluded with a T39 finish, experiencing difficulties on the greens. In his sole other start this year, he impressed with a 3rd place finish at The Sentry.
Adrien Dumont de Chassart, Akshay Bhatia, Alejandro Tosti, Alexander Bjork, Andrew Novak, Ben Kohles, Benjamin Griffin, Benjamin Taylor, Carl Yuan, Carson Young, Chan Kim, Christopher Gotterup, Dylan Wu, Eric Cole, Harry Hall, Jake Knapp, Jorge Campillo, Justin Suh, Kevin Yu, Matthias Schmid, Min Woo Lee, Nicolas Echavarria, Rico Hoey, Robert MacIntyre, Ryan Fox, Ryo Hisatsune, Sami Valimaki, Samuel Stevens, Seonghyeon Kim, Thomas Detry, Tyson Alexander, Victor Perez, Vincent Norrman
Players with Scottsdale, Arizona ties in the Field:
Aaron Baddeley, Wyndham Clark, Max Homa, Martin Laird, Nate Lashley, J.J. Spaun, Ryan Moore, Chez Reavie, Kevin Yu, Kevin Streelman, Joel Dahmen
Notable Withdraws:
Viktor Hovland -> IN: Victor Perez
Xander Schauffele -> IN: Alexander Björk
Davis Riley -> IN: Ryan Fox
Patrick Rodgers -> IN: Sami Valimaki
Kevin Streelman -> IN: Robert MacIntyre
To see the most up-to-date odds, you can click the following link.
To see the full field for this event and how they qualified, you can click the following link.
Dating back to 2010, the winning score of the WM Phoenix Open has been -18 or lower just five times (36%). However, in a more recent analysis, the winning score reached -19 in two of the past three years.
Regarding the caliber of the field, this year’s event features the lowest field rating we’ve seen in the past three years. In the previous year, the tournament boasted 33 of the top 40 players in the world, headlined by Rahm, McIlroy, and Scheffler. There has been a noticeable decline in the field rating for this event. In 2022, the field rating stood at 512.00, dropping to 379.52 last year, and further decreasing to 341.65 this year.
To place a bet on the Projected Final Score of the Winner, you can click the following link.
To place a bet at FanDuel on the Projected Final Score of the Winner, you can click the following link.
Facts & Figures:
Recent Form:
In one of their five previous starts before this event, each of the last 10 winners had a T10 finish or better
In one of their five previous starts before this event, each of the last 7 winners attained a finish of T7 or better.
Event Specific:
Before winning, each of the last 8 champions secured a finish of T8 or higher at this event.
Before clinching victory, 7 out of the last 8 champions achieved a finish of T5 or better at this event.
Horses for Courses:
WM Phoenix Open
WM Phoenix Open
Waste Management Phoenix Open
Waste Management Phoenix Open
Waste Management Phoenix Open
TPC Scottsdale
TPC Scottsdale
TPC Scottsdale
TPC Scottsdale
TPC Scottsdale
Events Played
Scoring Average (per round)
2023
2022
2021
2020
2019
Scottie Scheffler
4
67.36
1
1
T7
MC
–
Justin Thomas
9
68.38
4
T8
T13
T3
3
Sungjae Im
4
68.38
T6
–
T17
T34
T7
Hideki Matsuyama
10
68.14
T29
T8
T42
T16
T15
Matthew Fitzpatrick
2
68.88
T29
T10
–
–
–
Donkeys for Courses:
“Horses for Courses” is a phrase that is widely used and describes the best course/tournament fits. These are players that have had success at the particular course/event. “Donkeys for Courses” is something I came up with that highlights the players who have struggled at a specific course/tournament.
WM Phoenix Open
WM Phoenix Open
Waste Management Phoenix Open
Waste Management Phoenix Open
Waste Management Phoenix Open
TPC Scottsdale
TPC Scottsdale
TPC Scottsdale
TPC Scottsdale
TPC Scottsdale
Events Played
Scoring Average (per round)
2023
2022
2021
2020
2019
Ryan Moore
18
70.05
MC
T49
MC
MC
MC
Kevin Stadler
8
70.40
–
–
MC
MC
–
Chez Reavie
15
70.5
MC
MC
MC
MC
T4
Denny McCarthy
5
70.79
MC
MC
MC
T59
T33
Tyler Duncan
6
72.17
MC
MC
MC
MC
MC
Matt Wallace
2
72.75
MC
MC
–
–
–
Cameron Champ
3
72.63
MC
–
MC
–
T67
Adam Schenk
5
71.50
T23
MC
MC
MC
T55
Troy Merritt
9
70.88
MC
T38
MC
MC
–
Luke Donald
9
70.42
–
MC
MC
MC
–
Previous Winners Scores, Prices, and Strokes Gained (Rank at Tournament):
2023: Scottie Scheffler (-19)
Price: 16-1
SG: Off the Tee
SG: Tee to Green
SG: Approach
SG: Around the Green
SG: Putting
Scottie Scheffler
18
1
1
19
13
2022: Scottie Scheffler (-16) – Playoff w/ Patrick Cantlay
Price: 25-1
SG: Off the Tee
SG: Tee to Green
SG: Approach
SG: Around the Green
SG: Putting
Scottie Scheffler
4
13
55
8
2
2021: Brooks Koepka (-19)
Price: 50-1
SG: Off the Tee
SG: Tee to Green
SG: Approach
SG: Around the Green
SG: Putting
Brooks Koepka
11
2
2
32
18
2020: Webb Simpson (-17) – Playoff w/ Tony Finau
Price: 14-1
SG: Off the Tee
SG: Tee to Green
SG: Approach
SG: Around the Green
SG: Putting
Webb Simpson
19
2
1
11
12
2019: Rickie Fowler (-17)
Price: 22-1
SG: Off the Tee
SG: Tee to Green
SG: Approach
SG: Around the Green
SG: Putting
Rickie Fowler
3
19
17
68
1
Previous Winners Incoming Form (Last 5 Starts):
2023: Scottie Scheffler
T11 – The American Express (PGA)
T7 – Sentry Tournament of Champions (PGA)
2 – Hero World Challenge (PGA)
T9 – Cadence Bank Houston Open (PGA)
T3 – World Wide Technology Championship (PGA)
2022: Scottie Scheffler
T20 – Farmers Insurance Open (PGA)
T25 – The American Express (PGA)
2 – Hero World Challenge (PGA)
T57 – The RSM Classic (PGA)
T2 – Hewlett Packard Enterprise Houston Open (PGA)
2021: Brooks Koepka
MC – Farmers Insurance Open (PGA)
MC – The American Express (PGA)
MC – Mayakoba Golf Classic (PGA)
T7 – The Masters (MAJ)
T5 – Vivint Houston Open (PGA)
2020: Webb Simpson (-17)
3 – Sony Open in Hawaii (PGA)
T10 – Hero World Challenge (PGA)
2 – The RSM Classic (PGA)
T7 – Shriners Hospitals for Children Open (PGA)
T16 – TOUR Championship (PGA)
2019: Rickie Fowler
T66 – Farmers Insurance Open (PGA)
T5 – Hero World Challenge (PGA)
T16 – Mayakoba Golf Classic (PGA)
T4 – Shriners Hospitals for Children Open (PGA)
T7 – TOUR Championship (PGA)
Previous Winners Finishes at Event:
2023: Scottie Scheffler
2022
2021
2020
Scottie Scheffler
WON
T7
MC
2022: Scottie Scheffler
2021
2020
Scottie Scheffler
T7
MC
2021: Brooks Koepka
2017
2016
2015
Brooks Koepka
T42
T41
WON
2020: Webb Simpson
2019
2018
2017
2016
2014
2012
2011
2010
2009
Webb Simpson
T20
MC
2
T14
10
T8
T8
MC
65
2019: Rickie Fowler
2018
2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
Rickie Fowler
T11
T4
2
T46
MC
MC
T26
T13
2
T58
Picks (Outrights):
Jordan Spieth (+1800) – FanDuel
Risk: 0.45 to win 8.10 Units
Jordan Spieth enters this event after a T39 finish at the AT&T Pebble Beach, despite ranking 70th in the field in Strokes Gained: Putting. However, he demonstrated strong performances in other areas, finishing 24th in Strokes Gained: Approach and 3rd in Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee among 80 competitors. In his only other start this season, he secured a 3rd place finish at The Sentry, gaining strokes across all categories, particularly in putting.
Spieth boasts an impressive course history at this event, with four top-10 finishes in seven appearances.
While there have been instances where players have delivered exceptional performances on the greens without prior indications, Spieth’s recent performance at Kapalua offers a glimmer of hope. If he can continue to strike the ball well and capitalize on opportunities on the green, he stands a chance of contending for the title come Sunday.
Sam Burns (+2000) – FanDuel
Risk: 0.40 to win 8.00 Units
Sam Burns arrives at this week’s tournament in excellent form. Over his last two starts, he secured a 10th-place finish at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am and a T6 finish at The American Express. Notably, at the previous event, his iron play was commendable, ranking 17th in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach.
Although Burns encountered difficulties in his initial two appearances at TPC Scottsdale, missing the cut on both occasions, his recent visits have yielded better outcomes. Last year, he achieved a T6 finish, and in 2021, he finished T22.
His putting has shown marked improvement this season, alongside his ball striking, both of which are crucial factors for success this week. Moreover, Burns has demonstrated enhanced performance in Scrambling over the past 36 rounds, ranking 9th in the field. Combining his recent form with his positive course history, Burns is expected to be a significant contender this week.
Byeong-Hun An (+2800) – FanDuel
Risk: 0.29 to win 8.12 Units
Byeong-Hun An has kicked off this season with an impressive start! In his three appearances, he secured a T31 finish at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am, a remarkable T2 performance at the Sony Open in Hawaii, and a solid 4th place finish at The Sentry. He has exhibited excellence across all facets of his game, particularly excelling off the tee and on the greens. While facing challenges with his irons last week at Pebble Beach, he managed to gain strokes on approach in the two preceding events.
Additionally, An boasts a commendable course history at TPC Scottsdale, having made the cut in all five of his appearances. During this period, he has garnered four top-25 finishes, with his most notable performance occurring during his event debut back in 2017, where he secured a T6 finish.
Among the field, An ranks impressively in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee, Strokes Gained: Ball Striking, Strokes Gained: Putting, and Birdies or Better Gained. With his trajectory pointing towards his first PGA Tour victory since the Genesis Scottish Open and considering his strong course history, this week presents a promising opportunity for him to finally break through.
J.T. Poston (+3300) – FanDuel
Risk: 0.25 to win 8.25 Units
J.T. Poston has enjoyed a remarkable start to the 2024 PGA Tour season. He kicked off the year with a strong T5 finish at The Sentry, followed by a solid 6th place at the Sony Open in Hawaii and a commendable T11 at The American Express. Most recently, he concluded with a respectable T20 finish at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am last week.
His overall performance has been impressive, particularly notable is his turnaround in play off the tee. In contrast to last year, where he consistently lost strokes off the tee in his last eight events, this season he has consistently gained strokes in that category across all four starts. While he may still lack distance, he has shown increased consistency in finding the fairway.
Although he missed the cut at the WM Phoenix Open last year, he had solid performances in the preceding years, finishing T23 in 2022 and T11 in 2021 at the same event.
Despite being ranked 37th in the OWGR, Poston holds a notable 12th position according to Data Golf. Additionally, among the field, he ranks favorably in Strokes Gained: Approach, Strokes Gained: Putting, Birdies or Better Gained, Scrambling Gained, and Proximity 150-200 Yards. Considering these factors, he appears poised for a successful week in Scottsdale.
Eric Cole (+4500) – FanDuel
Risk: 0.18 to win 8.10 Units
Eric Cole will be making his debut at the WM Phoenix Open this week. The last player to win in their inaugural appearance at TPC Scottsdale was Brooks Koepka back in 2015.
Cole concluded the Fall Swing impressively and carried that momentum into the 2024 season. At last week’s AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am, he secured a commendable T14 finish, ranking 4th amongst the field in Strokes Gained: Approach. Before that, he missed the cut at the Farmers Insurance Open, a tournament where he has struggled in the past, also missing the cut in 2023. However, before this missed cut, he achieved solid results with a T21 finish at The American Express, T13 at the Sony Open in Hawaii, and T14 at The Sentry.
In the previous year, Cole grappled with accuracy off the tee, but this season, he appears to have rectified that issue. His approach play has remained consistently strong, which is crucial for success this week. Over the last 36 rounds, Cole ranks impressively in Strokes Gained: Approach, Strokes Gained: Putting, Proximity Gained 150-200 Yards, Par 4 Scoring 400-500 Yards, Par 3 Scoring 175-200 Yards, and Birdies or Better Gained.
Total Risk on Outrights: 1.57 Units
Picks (Top 40):
Mark Hubbard (+100) – BetMGM
Risk: 1.00 to win 1.00 Units
Mark Hubbard is coming off an impressive T4 finish at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am, where he showcased his putting skills by ranking 2nd in the field in SG: Putting. In his previous three starts this season, he secured finishes of T20 (Farmers Insurance Open), T47 (The American Express), and T57 (Sony Open in Hawaii).
This marks Hubbard’s sixth appearance at the WM Phoenix Open. His most notable performance at this event was in 2020 when he finished T9. However, last year, he missed the cut for the first time, struggling in every aspect of his game. Heading into the event last year, Hubbard was enduring a rough patch, having missed the cut in his previous five events.
However, Hubbard’s fortunes changed in the latter half of the 2023 season, and he has carried that momentum into the beginning of the 2024 season. His approach game has been much more consistent gaining strokes in each of his last four starts. Additionally, his tee game has also seen enhancement.
As putting is crucial for success at this tournament, it’s noteworthy that Hubbard has gained strokes on the green in three of his last four starts, indicating a promising trend in his performance.
Tom Hoge (+115) – BetMGM
Risk: 1.00 to win 1.15 Units
Tom Hoge has been displaying excellent form recently, particularly in his approach play and putting, both of which are crucial factors for success this week. At the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am last week, he secured a T6 finish, ranking 6th in Strokes Gained: Approach and 8th in Strokes Gained: Putting. Before that, he finished T56 at the Farmers Insurance Open and T17 at The American Express. Notably, in each of his past five events, he has gained strokes on approach
This marks Hoge’s seventh appearance at the WM Phoenix Open. Last year, he missed the cut, struggling off the tee and on the greens. Specifically, in Round 2, he ranked 132nd in Strokes Gained: Putting among the field of 136. His best finish in seven outings here was in 2022, where he secured a T14 placement.
Hoge’s iron play has been notably improving, which bodes well for his performance at this event. Additionally, he ranks favorably in Proximity 150-200 yards, which is where the majority of approach shots are made. Moreover, Hoge ranks 18th in the field in terms of birdies or better, further highlighting his potential for success.
Nick Taylor (+125) – BetMGM
Risk: 1.00 to win 1.25 Units
Nick Taylor found himself in contention to win this event last year, but a bogey on the 16th hole dashed his hopes. Despite making a birdie on the 17th, it wasn’t enough to catch up, and Scottie Scheffler ultimately claimed victory by two shots. This runner-up finish in 2023 marked Taylor’s best performance at the WM Phoenix Open to date.
Coming off a T71 finish at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am last week, where he struggled only around the greens, Taylor’s season has seen varied results. He missed the cut at The American Express, secured a T7 finish at the Sony Open in Hawaii, and placed T52 at The Sentry. Notably, in each of these events, he gained strokes both on the greens and in approach play.
Taylor has demonstrated improved consistency in his iron play recently, a skill he’ll need to rely on this week. Additionally, he ranks favorably in Proximity 150-200 yards, an area crucial for approach shots. While not a long hitter off the tee, his accuracy can provide him with an advantage, as evidenced by his performance last year.
Nate Lashley (+138) – BetMGM
Risk: 1.00 to win 1.38 Units
Nate Lashley, a resident of Scottsdale, showcased an impressive performance at the Farmers Insurance Open, securing a T3 finish. However, his season has seen mixed results, with missed cuts at The American Express and the Sony Open in Hawaii. Lashley’s performance on specific courses tends to be predictable; he has missed the cut at Pebble Beach for the past four years and at Waialae CC in three of his last four appearances. Thus, his prior finishes at the Amex and Sony Open, though concerning, are consistent with his past performances.
Last year at the WM Phoenix Open, Lashley finished T61, struggling particularly around the green. In 2022, he missed the cut, experiencing difficulties across various aspects of his game, albeit during a period of overall inconsistency where he missed the cut in six out of eight events. However, he has also found success at this event, finishing T17 in 2021 and T3 in 2020.
Lashley also holds favorable rankings in Par 3 Scoring from 175 to 200 Yards, Par 4 Scoring from 450 to 500 Yards, and Par 5 Scoring from 500 to 600 Yards.
Despite a variable performance history, Lashley has demonstrated a potential for high achievement. With a strong showing at the Farmers Insurance Open, if his approach game continues its positive trajectory, he stands a chance of success this week.
Total Risk on Top 40s: 4.00 Units
As always, all of my placement bets are through BetMGM as they’re one of the only books without dead-heat rules. If you’d like to bet these placements at BetMGM, you can get up to $1500 in Bonus Bets if you don’t win if you’re a first-time user.
Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting. Any feedback whether positive or negative is always encouraged.
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Michigan State vs Minnesota +3.5 O/U 139
How about them Gophers. They are the number 1 ATS team in the nation in college basketball at 17-3 ATS. This means that we should start fading them due to being over valued right? WRONG! The problem with fading this team is that they are still undervalued in the marketplace at 77th on Kenpom. This Gophers team is better than that with big wins against Nebraska and Maryland at home. They also had a very close loss to Wisconsin at home keeping it within two points. Michigan State did beat Minnesota at home by 10 points earlier this year, but Sparty on the road is a whole different subject. Michigan State ranks 352 in home road splits, and only 50.6% effective FG%. The Barn is a very tough place to play with a raucous crowd and Big 10 officiating favoring the home team. I think Minnesota is live here to win this game and the ATS streak continues.
We have a WONDEFUL show for you for our 566th episode today! The Owner and CEO of Circa Sports in Derek Stevens @DerekJStevens joins us to talk football contests and Super Bowl 58 right in his backyard in Las Vegas Nevada! First, Kiev talks about his thoughts on how you should approach Vegas when visiting for big events. Next, we get into our super bowl handicap between the 49ers and Chiefs. Kiev breaks down some of the matchup advantages and disadvantages that he sees for the big game. He also gives out another Free Play in the Super Bowl derivative market. Then, Derek comes on and the guys get right into the football contests of 2023! How did they go for Circa Sports? Will there be any changes? After that, Derek talks about all of the wonderful parties and events that he is throwing @CircaLasVega for the big Super Bowl weekend! Finally, we talk about what the books need for results and where to get signed up for all of the events. Should you have any questions for the podcast, or games that you want us to cap during our shows, please message us at Info@TheOddsBreakers.com. Have a wonderful week!
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2024 College Basketball 53-44 up 11.5U as of January 13th!
146-123-6 up 11 units in 2023 MLB!
63% for 2022/2023 NBA sides and totals! 22-13 up 6.5 units. 14% ROI
55% All Time NFL Sides, Teasers, Parlays, Props and Totals! 5.21% ROI
56% 2022/2023 NFL Season 136-109-11 in Sides/Totals/Teasers/Season props up 38.5U
55% All Time College Football Sides, Teasers, Parlays, Props and Totals! 4.75% ROI
63% FOR 2022 COLLEGE BOWL SEASON UP 27 UNITS!
54% Lifetime All Plays in College Basketball 3% ROI
38% Lifetime UFC On All Plays 3% ROI
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Houston vs Kansas +1.5 O/U 134
This is probably the best game of the day. Most of the efficiency sites have Houston winning at Kansas by 5 or 6 points, but do we actually believe that? Heck no. This line will be +1 at best at the Phog, and anything more you better jump on quickly. Kansas’s star play Kevin McCuller sat out their last game vs Oklahoma State, but I believe it was just basically a rest spot for the kid who was a little soar after the Iowa State game. So the main reason why Houston is ranked number one on Kenpom is due to their unrelenting defense. I get it and all, but it’s not like they this team was all that impressive in some of their wins. Houston squeaked by a few teams like Texas in overtime and BYU had them until the final minute of the game. Houston has a poor offense and they only shoot 201st in effective FG% at 49.9%. This could be dangerous when trying to climb back in a big game. They found this out away at Iowa State and TCU scoring in the low 50s to mid 60s. They shoot only 47.4% effective FG on the road. Kansas shoots a monster 58.3% at home and will have a raucous crowd for the Cougars to deal with. Houston ranks 356th away from home while Kansas ranks 54th as a home team on Haslametrics. Kansas gets the big win here and the wrong team is favored.
We have four Kentucky Derby Prep Races taking place on Saturday, February 3rd. I’ll break down each field and offer my picks for the Southwest Stakes, Robert B. Lewis Stakes, Holy Bull Stakes, and Withers Stakes.
These stakes races serve as important early prep races for three-year-olds on their journey to the Kentucky Derby, attracting top-class horses and jockeys. They play a significant role in shaping the field for the Triple Crown races, making them a key event in the racing calendar. The top five finishers for each race are awarded Derby qualifying points (20-10-6-4-2). To see the leaderboard for the 2024 Kentucky Derby Contenders, you can click the following link.
Withers Stakes
The Withers Stakes was first run in 1874, making it one of the oldest stakes races in the United States. The race is named in honor of David Dunham Withers, a prominent 19th-century thoroughbred owner and breeder. The race has traditionally been held at various racetracks over the years, with its most common venue being Aqueduct Racetrack in Queens, New York. The Withers Stakes has been contested at various distances throughout its history. Since 2019, it has been run at a distance of 1 1/8 miles.
In his debut, Speed Runner finished 3rd in a $87,000 Maiden Special Weight run at a distance of 7F. After that, they switched him to dirt and stretched him out in another Maiden Special Weight which he won. In that race, he beat fellow entrant Scoiety Man (3rd). He seemed to handle the distance well and with his speed figures heading in the right direction, he should be a contender. Jose Lezcano will retain the mount who rode Speed Runner in his last race.
Name: Deposition
ML Odds: 50-1
Owner(s): Uriah St Lewis
Trainer: Uriah St Lewis
Jockey: Dexter Haddock
Dam: Mandrell (Dubawi*Ire)
Sire: Constitution (Tapit)
Starts
1st Place
2nd Place
3rd Place
Life
6
1
0
1
2024
6
1
0
1
2023
0
M
0
0
Aqueduct
1
0
0
0
Deposition has raced six times for far, the second most of out this field of nine. His debut came back in September on a slippery surface. He finished 5th in a Maiden Special Weight Sprint. In his second start, he faced a muddy track where he finished 4th in Rocky Run Stakes which was run a distance of a mile. In November, he raced a total of three times. On the 4th, he finished 6th in a $85,000 Maiden Special Weight. Ten days later, he finished 3rd in a Maiden Special Weight Sprint. Just seven days after that race, he finally broke his maiden in $52,000 Maiden Special Weight at Parx. After that, he took a step up in class and ran 7th in the Heft Stakes. Blinkers on. Dexter Haddock will retain the mount who rode Deposition in his last race.
Name: Lightline
ML Odds: 8-5
Owner(s): Albaugh Family Stables LLC
Trainer: Brad H Cox
Jockey: Manuel Franco
Dam: Upperline (Maria’s Mon)
Sire: City of Light (Quality Road)
Starts
1st Place
2nd Place
3rd Place
Life
3
1
2
0
2024
3
1
2
0
2023
0
M
0
0
Aqueduct
0
0
0
0
Lightline broke his maiden in his debut winning a $34,000 Maiden Special Weight. He was the favorite in that race and deservedly so as we won by nearly 14 lengths. Following that race, he came in 2nd in a $100,000 Allowance Optional Claiming. In his most recent race, he ran 2nd again in a similar race. Manuel Franco will get his first mount on Lightline.
Name: El Grande O
ML Odds: 5-2
Owner(s): Barry K Schwartz
Trainer: Linda Rice
Jockey: Kendrick Carmouche
Dam: Rainbow’s Song (Unbridled’s Song)
Sire: Take Charge Indy (A.P. Indy)
Starts
1st Place
2nd Place
3rd Place
Life
9
3
4
1
2024
1
0
1
0
2023
8
3
3
1
Aqueduct
4
2
1
0
In his last start, El Grande 0 ran 2nd in the Jerome Stakes despite stumbling at the start. Before that race, he won the Sleepy Hollow Stakes on a muddy surface at a distance of a mile. In his only graded stakes race, the Champagne Stakes (Grade I), he finished 6th. Kendrick Carmouche will retain the mount who rode El Grande O in his last race.
Name: Seminole Chief
ML Odds: 12-1
Owner(s): Brad Grady and David Grund
Trainer: Jack Sisterson
Jockey: Trevor McCarthy
Dam: Secret Song (Dunkirk)
Sire: Girvin (Tale of Ekati)
Starts
1st Place
2nd Place
3rd Place
Life
3
2
0
0
2024
3
2
0
0
2023
0
M
0
0
Aqueduct
0
0
0
0
Seminole Chief broke his maiden in his debut winning a $28,000 5 1/2 F Maiden Special Weight. In his second race, he was bumped at the start and finished 6th. After that performance, he was stretched out to a 1 1/16 M at the FTBOA Florida Sire In Reality Stakes where he won by half a length. Trevor McCarthy will get his first mount on Seminole Chief.
Name: Society Man
ML Odds: 20-1
Owner(s): West Paces Racing LLC
Trainer: Danny Gargan
Jockey: Isaac Castillo
Dam: You Cheated (Colonel John)
Sire: Good Magic (Curlin)
Starts
1st Place
2nd Place
3rd Place
Life
2
M
0
1
2024
2
M
0
1
2023
0
M
0
0
Aqueduct
1
0
0
1
In his debut, Society Man ran 7th in a $105,000 Maiden Special Weight sprint where he was never really a factor. He was stretched out to a mile and a sixteenth in his second start. Despite being bumped at the start, he managed to run 3rd. Isaac Castillo will get his first mount on Society Man.
Name: Mission Beach
ML Odds: 6-1
Owner(s): SF Racing LLC Starlight Racing Madake
Trainer: Brittany T Russell
Jockey: Dylan Davis
Dam: Stoweshoe (Flatter)
Sire: Curlin (Smart Strike)
Starts
1st Place
2nd Place
3rd Place
Life
4
2
0
0
2024
4
2
0
0
2023
0
M
0
0
Aqueduct
0
0
0
0
Mission Beach broke his maiden in his debut winning a $83,000 6F Maiden Special Weight. After that, he took a step up in class and finished 5th in the Hopeful Stakes (Grade I). In his third race, he ran 4th in the Bob Hope Stakes (Grade III). Following that race, Brittany Russell replaced Bob Baffert as Mission Beach’s trainer. In his most recent race, a $62,000 Allowance Optional Claiming, he won by nearly two lengths. Mission Beach has never raced more than 7F so we’ll see how he handles the increase in distance. Dylan Davis will get his first mount on Mission Beach.
Name: Uncle Heavy
ML Odds: 10-1
Owner(s): Michael Milam
Trainer: Robert E Reid Jr
Jockey: Mychel J. Sanchez
Dam: Expect Wonderful (Tiz Wonderful)
Sire: Social Inclusion (Pioneerof the Nile)
Starts
1st Place
2nd Place
3rd Place
Life
3
2
0
0
2024
3
2
0
0
2023
0
M
0
0
Aqueduct
0
0
0
0
Uncle Heavy broke his maiden in his debut winning a $66,000 6F Maiden Special Weight. After that race, he ran 5th in the Pennsylvania Nursery Stakes after a rough start. In his most recent race, he won the Wait For It Stakes at a distance of one mile and seventy yards. Mychel J. Sanchez will retain the mount on Uncle Heavy.
Name: Khanate
ML Odds: 15-1
Owner(s): Calumet Farm
Trainer: Todd A Pletcher
Jockey: Eric Cancel
Dam: Mongolian Shopper (Any Given Saturday)
Sire: Hightail (Mineshaft)
Starts
1st Place
2nd Place
3rd Place
Life
5
1
0
1
2024
1
0
0
1
2023
4
1
0
0
Aqueduct
1
0
0
1
In his debut, Khanate ran 5th in a $83,000 Maiden Special Weight sprint where he was bumped at the start. He finally broke his maiden in his third race at Keeneland in a $69,000 Maiden Special Weight. After that, he took a step in class and distance finishing 6th in a $100,000 Allowance Optional Claiming race at Churchill. In his most recent race, he finished 3rd in the Jerome Stakes behind fellow entrant El Grande O. Eric Cancel will get his first mount on Khanate.
Horse History Against Fellow Entrants:
Jerome Stakes
El Grande O (2nd)
Khante (3rd)
Maiden Special Weight (12/08/2023 at Aqueduct)
Speed Runner (1st)
Society Man (3rd)
Picks:
WIN – (4) El Grande O
Live Long Shot – (8) Uncle Heavy
Robert B. Lewis Stakes
The Robert B. Lewis Stakes was inaugurated in 1935 and was originally known as the Santa Catalina Handicap. In 2007, the race was renamed to honor Robert B. Lewis, a prominent Thoroughbred owner and breeder who was actively involved in the horse racing industry. The Robert B. Lewis Stakes is a Grade III race and is typically contested at a distance of 1 1/16 miles. In this event, the first five finishers earn points on a 20-8-6-4-2 basis, contributing to their eligibility for the prestigious Kentucky Derby.
Race Information:
Track: Santa Anita
Location: Santa Anita, California, United States
Event Grade: Grade III
Race: 5
Post Time: 5:15 PM ET
Length: 1 Mile
Purse: $200,000
Division: Open | Three Years Old
Surface: Dirt
Wagers: Exacta, Trifecta, Superfecta, Super Hi 5, Double, Pick 3, Pick 6
Previous Winners:
2023: Newgate
2022: Messier
2021: Medina Spirit
2020: Thousand Words
2019: Mucho Gusto
Field:
Post Position
Horse
Morning Line (ML) Odds
1
Wine Me Up
6-1
2
Ace of Clubs
20-1
3
Better Than Gold
6-1
4
Moonlit Sonata
20-1
5
Coach Prime
5-1
6
Nysos
4-5
7
Stronghold
6-1
8
Mc Vay
20-1
9
Scatify
6-1
Horse Preview:
Name: Wine Me Up
ML Odds: 6-1
Owner(s): Michael E. Pegram, Karl Watson, and Paul Weitman
Trainer: Bob Baffert
Jockey: Juan Hernandez
Dam: Deanaallen’skitten (Kitten’s Joy)
Sire: Vino Rosso (Curlin)
Starts
1st Place
2nd Place
3rd Place
Life
4
1
1
0
2024
4
1
1
0
2023
0
M
0
0
Santa Anita
2
0
1
0
Wine Me Up, won his debut which was a $84,000 Maiden Special Wieght run at 6F. After that, they lengthened I’m out to a mile and sixteenth. In his second race, he finished 2nd in the American Pharoah Stakes (Grade I). Following that race, he struggled in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (Grade I) finishing 8th. In his most recent race, he ran 4th in the Los Alamitos Futurity (Grade II) behind fellow entrants Stronghold (2nd) and Coach Prime (3rd). Juan Hernandez will retain the mount who rode Wine Me Up in his last race.
Name: Ace of Clubs
ML Odds: 20-1
Owner(s): ERJ Racing, Fritz Brothers Racing, Pappas Horse Racing, and Pablo A. Suarez
Trainer: Doug O’Neill
Jockey: Edwin Maldonado
Dam: Rustic Chic (Orb)
Sire: Mor Spirit (Eskendereya)
Starts
1st Place
2nd Place
3rd Place
Life
6
2
0
1
2024
6
2
0
1
2023
0
M
0
0
Santa Anita
0
0
0
0
In his debut, Ace of Clubs ran 3rd in a Maiden Claiming at Los Alamitos. After that, he won back-to-back sprints at Del Mar. Following that, he finished 4th in Zuma Beach Stakes (Grade III) and 5th in Qatar Golden Mile Stakes, both run at a distance of a mile. In his most recent race, he placed 5th in the Los Alamitos Futurity (Grade II) finishing behind fellow entrants Stronghold (2nd), Coach Prime (3rd), and Wine Me Up (4th). Edwin Maldonado will retain the mount who rode Ace of Clubs in his last race.
Name: Better Than Gold
ML Odds: 6-1
Owner(s): Columbine Stable LLC
Trainer: Gary Mandella
Jockey: Mike Smith
Dam: Sweet Tess (Afleet Alex)
Sire: Nyquist (Uncle Mo)
Starts
1st Place
2nd Place
3rd Place
Life
2
1
0
0
2024
2
1
0
0
2023
0
M
0
0
Santa Anita
1
0
0
0
Better Than Gold had a tough debut finishing 8th in a $63,000 Maiden Special Wight sprint. He had a slow start where he was bumped and never really recovered. Fellow entrant Nysos, won that race by over eight lengths. In his most recent race, he won a Maiden Special Weight run at a distance of a mile. Mike Smith will retain the mount who rode Better Than Gold in his last race.
Name: Moonlit Sonata
ML Odds: 20-1
Owner(s): Soma Racing Stables LLC
Trainer: Tim Yakteen
Jockey: Geovanni Franco
Dam: Distorted Champ (Distorted Humor)
Sire: Malibu Moon (A.P. Indy)
Starts
1st Place
2nd Place
3rd Place
Life
2
1
0
0
2024
1
0
0
0
2023
1
1
0
0
Santa Anita
1
0
0
0
Moonlit Sonata won his debut in a 6 1/2 F sprint at Del Mar. In his last race, he took a step up in class at the San Vicente Stakes (Grade II) where he finished 5th. He has never raced at a distance greater than 7 F so we’ll see how he handles the increase in distance. Geovanni Franco will retain the mount who rode Moonlit Sonata in his first two races.
Name: Coach Prime
ML Odds: 5-1
Owner(s): Zedan Racing Stables Inc
Trainer: Bob Baffert
Jockey: Frankie Dettori
Dam: Act Now (Street Sense)
Sire: Quality Road (Elusive Quality)
Starts
1st Place
2nd Place
3rd Place
Life
3
1
0
2
2024
3
1
0
2
2023
0
M
0
0
Santa Anita
1
0
0
1
In his debut, Coach Prime ran 3rd in a $63,000 Maiden Special Weight at Santa Anita. That race isn’t a great representation of this horse as he had a terrible post position and it was on turf. Following that race, he switched surfaces and won a similar race at Del Mar by over seven lengths. In his most recent race, the Los Alamitos Futurity (Grade II), he finished 3rd behind fellow entrant Stronghold (2nd). Frankie Dettori will get his first mount on Coach Prime.
Name: Nysos
ML Odds: 4-5
Owner(s): Baoma Corp
Trainer: Bob Baffert
Jockey: Flavien Prat
Dam: Zetta Z (Bernardini)
Sire: Nyquist (Uncle Mo)
Starts
1st Place
2nd Place
3rd Place
Life
2
2
0
0
2024
2
2
0
0
2023
0
M
0
0
Santa Anita
1
1
0
0
Nysos has been impressive in his first two races winning both. In his first race, he won a 6F Maiden Special Weight by over ten lengths. More recently, he won the Bob Hope Stakes (Grade III) by nearly nine lengths. He has never raced at a distance greater than 7 F so we’ll see how he handles the increase in distance. Flavien Prat will retain the mount who rode Nysos in his last race.
Name: Stronghold
ML Odds: 6-1
Owner(s): Eric M. Waller and Sharon Waller
Trainer: Philip D’Amato
Jockey: Antonio Fresu
Dam: Spectator (Jimmy Creed)
Sire: Ghostzapper (Awesome Again)
Starts
1st Place
2nd Place
3rd Place
Life
4
1
3
0
2024
4
1
3
0
2023
0
M
0
0
Santa Anita
0
0
0
0
In his debut, Stronghold finished 2nd in a 6F Maiden Special Weight. After that, he broke his maiden in another Maiden Special Weight run at a distance of a mile. In the Bob Hope Stakes (Grade III), he finished 2nd behind fellow entrant Nysos. Most recently, he finished 2nd again in the Los Alamitos Futurity (Grade II). Antonio Fresu will retain the mount who rode Stronghold in his last two races.
Name: Mc Vay
ML Odds: 20-1
Owner(s): C R K Stable LLC
Trainer: John Shirreffs
Jockey: Umberto Rispoli
Dam: Dothraki Sea (Union Rags)
Sire: Constitution (Tapit)
Starts
1st Place
2nd Place
3rd Place
Life
2
M
1
0
2024
1
M
1
0
2023
1
M
0
0
Santa Anita
1
0
1
0
Mc Vay struggled in his debut finishing 7th in a 6F Maiden Special Weight, a race won by fellow entrant Wine Me Up. In his most recent start, he finished 2nd in another Maiden Special Weight that was a slight step down in class. He has never raced at a distance greater than 6 1/2 F so we’ll see how he handles the increase in distance. However, given his pedigree, it suggests that he’ll handle it well. Umberto Rispoli will get his first mount on Mc Vay.
Name: Scatify
ML Odds: 6-1
Owner(s): West Point Thoroughbreds
Trainer: John W Sadler
Jockey: Hector Berrios
Dam: Broadway Run (Prospective)
Sire: Justify (Scat Daddy)
Starts
1st Place
2nd Place
3rd Place
Life
1
1
0
0
2024
1
1
0
0
2023
0
M
0
0
Santa Anita
0
0
0
0
In his debut and only race, Scatify won a $45,000 Maiden Special Weight sprint. His pedigree is impressive as he’s the son of Triple Crown winner Justify. Hector Berrios will retain the mount who rode Scatify in his last race.
Horse History Against Fellow Entrants:
Los Alamitos Futurity (Grade II)
Stronghold (2nd)
Coach Prim (3rd)
Wine Me Up (4th)
Ace of Clubs (5th)
Bob Hope Stakes (Grade III)
Nysos (1st)
Stronghold (2nd)
Maiden Special Weight (10/21/2023 at Santa Anita)
Nysos (1st)
Better than Gold (8th)
Maiden Special Weight (9/02/2023 at Del Mar)
Wine Me Up (1st)
Mc Vay (7th)
Picks:
WIN – (5) Coach Prime
EXACTA – 5, 7
Holy Bull
The Holy Bull Stakes was first run in 1990 at Gulfstream Park in Hallandale Beach, Florida. Gulfstream Park has been the primary venue for the Holy Bull Stakes since its inception. The race is named in honor of Holy Bull, a highly successful American Thoroughbred racehorse who had a notable career in the 1990s. Holy Bull won multiple Grade I races, including the Travers Stakes and the Woodward Stakes. In this event, the first five finishers earn points on a 20-8-6-4-2 basis, contributing to their eligibility for the prestigious Kentucky Derby.
Race Information:
Track: Gulfstream Park
Location: Hallandale Beach, Florida, United States
Event Grade: Grade III
Race: 12
Post Time: 5:48 PM ET
Length: 1 1/16 Miles
Purse: $250,000
Division: Open | Three Years Old
Surface: Dirt
Wagers: $1 Exacta, $.50 Trifecta, $.10 Superfecta, $1 Super Hi 5
Previous Winners:
2023: Rocket Can
2022: White Abarrio
2021: Greatest Honor
2020: Tiz the Law
2019: Harvey Wallbanger
Field:
Post Position
Horse
Morning Line (ML) Odds
1
Hades
6-1
2
Inveigled
12-1
3
Otello
9-2
4
Dancing Groom
30-1
5
No More Time
12-1
6
Domestic Product
8-1
7
Fierceness
3-5
8
Sea Streak
20-1
Horse Preview:
Name: Hades
ML Odds: 6-1
Owner(s): D J Stable LLC and Robert Cotran
Trainer: Joseph Orseno
Jockey: Paco Lopez
Dam: The Shady Lady (Quality Road)
Sire: Awesome Slew (Awesome Again)
Starts
1st Place
2nd Place
3rd Place
Life
2
2
0
0
2024
2
2
0
0
2023
0
M
0
0
Gulfstream
2
2
0
0
Hades has won both of the two starts he’s made. In his first start, he won a $50,000 Madien Optional Claiming race at Gulfstream despite being bumped at the start. Less than a month later, he raced again at Gulfstream Park winning a $54,000 Allowance by eight lengths. His most recent race was run at 7F and before that, he ran at 5 1/2F so we’ll see how he handles the increase in distance. Paco Lopez will retain the mount who’s ridden him in his first two races.
Name: Inveigled
ML Odds: 12-1
Owner(s): Mark B Grier
Trainer: Jane Cibelli
Jockey: Irad Ortiz Jr.
Dam: Kitty Quality (Quality Road)
Sire: Enticed (Medaglia d’Oro)
Starts
1st Place
2nd Place
3rd Place
Life
5
2
1
1
2024
1
0
0
0
2023
4
2
1
1
Gulfstream
2
1
0
0
Inveigled broke his maiden in his second race which was a $52,000 Maiden Special Wight at Laurel Park run at a distance of 5 1/2F. In his third race, he ran 2nd in the James F. Lewis III Stakes. Following that race, they stretched him out to a mile in an Allowance Optional Claiming race at Gulfstream where he won by nearly five lengths. In that race, he beat fellow entrant Sea Streak who finished 2nd. Earlier this month, he ran in the Mucho Macho Man Stakes, again at a mile, and finished 4th behind Otello (1st) and Sea Streak (3rd). Irad Ortiz Jr. will retain the mount who’s ridden him in the last two races.
Name: Otello
ML Odds: 9-2
Owner(s): WinStar Farm LLC and Siena Farm LLC
Trainer: Christophe Clement
Jockey: Luis Saez
Dam: Isabella Sings (Eskendereya)
Sire: Curlin (Smart Strike)
Starts
1st Place
2nd Place
3rd Place
Life
2
2
0
0
2024
1
1
0
0
2023
1
1
0
0
Gulfstream
1
1
0
0
Otello has won both of the two starts he’s made. In his first start, he won a Maiden Special Weight at Aqueduct run at a distance of a mile. Less than a month later, he raced at Gulfstream Park, winning the Mucho Macho Man Stakes beating fellow entrants Sea Streak,Inveigled, and No More Time. Luis Saez will retain the mount who rode Otello in his last race.
Name: Dancing Groom
ML Odds: 30-1
Owner(s): Alex Andres LLC
Trainer: Antonio Sano
Jockey: Junior Alvarado
Dam: Snow Dancer (Bernardini)
Sire: Vino Rosso (Curlin)
Starts
1st Place
2nd Place
3rd Place
Life
4
1
0
1
2024
4
1
0
1
2023
0
M
0
0
Gulfstream
0
0
0
0
Dancing Groom broke his maiden in his second race which was a $105,000 Maiden Special Wight at Saratoga run at a distance of a mile. Following that race, he finished 3rd in the Champagne Stakes (Grade I) finishing ahead of fellow entrant Fierceness (7th). In his most recent race, which was on November 25th, he ran 6th in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (Grade II). After that race, he moved to Gulfstream to train. Blinkers on. Junior Alvarado will get his first mount on Dancing Groom.
Name: No More Time
ML Odds: 12-1
Owner(s): Morplay Racing
Trainer: Jose F D’Angelo
Jockey: Jose Ortiz
Dam: Baroness Juliette (Speightstown)
Sire: Not This Time (Giant’s Causeway)
Starts
1st Place
2nd Place
3rd Place
Life
3
1
1
0
2024
1
0
0
0
2023
2
1
1
0
Gulfstream
3
1
1
0
No More Time ran 2nd in his first start which was a Maiden Special Weight at Gulfstream run at a distance of 5 1/2 F. They bumped him up to a mile in his second race, where he won by more than six lengths. Earlier this month, he ran in the Mucho Macho Man Stakes where he finished 5th behind fellow entrants Otello, Sea Streak, and Inveigled. Jose Ortiz will retain the mount who rode No More Time in his last race.
Name: Domestic Product
ML Odds: 8-1
Owner(s): Klaravich Stables Inc
Trainer: Chad C Brown
Jockey: Tyler Gaffalione
Dam: Goods and Services (Paynter)
Sire: Practical Joke (Into Mischief)
Starts
1st Place
2nd Place
3rd Place
Life
3
1
0
0
2024
3
1
0
0
2023
0
M
0
0
Gulfstream
0
0
0
0
Domestic Product ran 5th in his debut which was a $105,000 Maiden Special Weight at Saratoga run at a distance of 6 F. They bumped him up to a mile and an eighth in his second race, where he won by more than four lengths. Most recently, he ran in the Remsen Stakes (Grade II) when he ran 7th on a muddy track. Blinkers come off. Tyler Gaffalione will get his first mount on Domestic Product.
Name: Fierceness
ML Odds: 3-5
Owner(s): Repole Stable
Trainer: Todd A Pletcher
Jockey: John Velazquez
Dam: Nonna Bella (Stay Thirsty)
Sire: City of Light (Quality Road)
Starts
1st Place
2nd Place
3rd Place
Life
3
2
0
0
2024
3
2
0
0
2023
0
M
0
0
Gulfstream
0
0
0
0
Fierceness broke his maiden in his first race winning a $105,000 Maiden Special Weight at Saratoga by over eleven lengths! In his second start, he ran 7th in the Champagne Stakes (Grade I) after a bad start. Following that race, he won the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (Grade I) by over six lengths. In that race, he posted an impressive speed figure which no other entrant comes close to. John Velazquez will retain the mount who rode Fierceness in his last race.
Name: Sea Streak
ML Odds: 20-1
Owner(s): Holly Crest Farm
Trainer: Eddie Owens Jr.
Jockey: Luca Panici
Dam: High Noon Nellie (Silver Deputy)
Sire: Sea Wizard (Uncle Mo)
Starts
1st Place
2nd Place
3rd Place
Life
4
1
2
1
2024
1
0
0
1
2023
3
1
2
0
Gulfstream
2
0
1
1
In his debut, Sea Streak ran 2nd in the Smoke Glacken Stakes at Monmouth Park. After that race, he broke his maiden in a 6F Maiden Special Weight. In his third race, an Allowance Optional Claiming, run a distance of a mile, he finished 2nd to fellow entrant Inveigled. Most recently he ran in the Mucho Macho Man Stakes which Otello won. Luca Panici will retain the mount who rode Sea Streak in his last race.
Horse History Against Fellow Entrants:
Champagne Stakes (Grade I)
Dancing Groom (3rd)
Fierceness (7th)
Mucho Macho Man Stakes
Otello (1st)
Sea Streak (3rd)
Inveigled (4th)
No More Time (5th)
Allowance Optional Claiming (12/9/23 at Gulfstream)
Inveigled (1st)
Sea Streak (2nd)
Picks:
WIN – (7) Fierceness
EXACTA – 7/ 4, 6, 8
Southwest Stakes
Established in 1968, the Southwest Stakes has evolved into a crucial component of Oaklawn Park’s lineup of preparatory races leading up to the Kentucky Derby. Positioned as the second of the four Oaklawn preps, it holds significance as a part of the Road to the Kentucky Derby series. In this event, the first five finishers earn points on a 20-8-6-4-2 basis, contributing to their eligibility for the prestigious Kentucky Derby. The race attained grade-three status in 2008, underlining its growing prominence in the world of horse racing.
Owner(s): L. William Heiligbrodt, Corinne Heiligbrodt, and Flurry Racing Stables
Trainer: Steven M Asmussen
Jockey: Ricardo Santana Jr.
Dam: Treasure in Heaven (Street Sense)
Sire: Mitole (Eskendereya)
Starts
1st Place
2nd Place
3rd Place
Life
2
2
0
0
2024
2
2
0
0
2023
0
M
0
0
Oaklawn Park
1
1
0
0
Name: Common Defense
ML Odds: 15-1
Owner(s): D. A. Bernsen, T. Holmes, M. Holmes, and Norevale Farm
Trainer: Kenneth G McPeek
Jockey: Julien Leparoux
Dam: Allusion (Street Cry*Ire)
Sire: Karakontie*Jpn (Bernstein)
Starts
1st Place
2nd Place
3rd Place
Life
2
1
1
0
2024
1
1
0
0
2023
1
M
1
0
Oaklawn Park
2
1
1
0
Name: Linebacker
ML Odds: 30-1
Owner(s): Novogratz Racing Stables Inc
Trainer: Jordan Blair
Jockey: Emmanuel Esquivel
Dam: Jinny Jump Up (Jump Start)
Sire: Bolt d’Oro (Medaglia d’Oro)
Starts
1st Place
2nd Place
3rd Place
Life
3
M
1
2
2024
3
M
1
2
2023
0
M
0
0
Oaklawn Park
1
0
1
0
Name: Mystik Dan
ML Odds: 12-1
Owner(s): Lance Gasaway, 4 G Racing, and Daniel Hamby III
Trainer: Kenneth G McPeek
Jockey: Brian Hernandez Jr
Dam: Ma’am (Colonel John)
Sire: Goldencents (Into Mischief)
Starts
1st Place
2nd Place
3rd Place
Life
4
1
1
0
2024
1
0
0
0
2023
3
1
1
0
Oaklawn Park
1
0
0
0
Name: Just Steel
ML Odds: 8-1
Owner(s): BC Stables LLC
Trainer: D Wayne Lukas
Jockey: Ramon Vazquez
Dam: Irish Lights*Aus (Fastnet Rock*Aus)
Sire: Justify (Scat Daddy)
Starts
1st Place
2nd Place
3rd Place
Life
8
2
2
1
2024
1
0
1
0
2023
7
2
1
1
Oaklawn Park
1
0
1
0
Name: Awesome Road
ML Odds: 8-1
Owner(s): Albaugh Family Stables LLC & Donegal Racing
Trainer: Brad H Cox
Jockey: Florent Geroux
Dam: Orate (A.P. Indy)
Sire: Quality Road (Elusive Quality)
Starts
1st Place
2nd Place
3rd Place
Life
3
1
0
0
2024
3
1
0
0
2023
0
M
0
0
Oaklawn Park
0
0
0
0
Picks:
WIN – (5) Wynstock
EXACTA – 5/ 6, 11, 12
Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting. Any feedback whether positive or negative is always encouraged.
We have a HUGE show for you today! Raphael Esparza from @DocsSports and MyBookie is back to break down the Super Bowl 58 prop market! First, Kiev gets into college basketball and some buy low, sell high teams for the near future. Next, we talk about some of the biggest college basketball weekend games with some breakdowns and some Free Plays! After that, Raphael comes on and the guys get right into some of the wonderful prop that he has created for Mybookie and other sports books. Finally, Raphael and Kiev talk about some of the prop plays that they have already bet for the big game. FShould you have any questions for the podcast for Monday, or games that you want us to cap during our shows, please message us at Info@TheOddsBreakers.com. Have a wonderful weekend!
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2024 College Basketball 53-44 up 11.5U as of January 13th!
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Ohio State vs Iowa -5.5 O/U 157
This should be a good friday game to watch in Big 10 country. Iowa is coming off of a nasty loss to Indiana. This team lost three of their last four games including two at home vs Purdue and Maryland Ohio State on the other hand isn’t making the big dance, and they know it. The Buckeye’s have one win since January 3rd and that was at home vs a poor Penn State team. I think the whole team also knows that coach Chris Holtman is a dead man walking and will be fired after the season is over. From a matchup perspective, Ohio State only has a near proximity advantage ranking 69th to Iowa at 153rd. Iowa has advantages from Mid range and from three point land ranking 86th in three point percentage on Kenpom while Ohio State ranks a horrible 302nd against the three on defense. I do not think this game will be competitive and I will lay the points with the Hawkeyes in a get back right spot at home.
