The NHL All-Star Skills Competition will take place on Friday, February 2nd at 7:00 PM ET. It will take place at the home of the Toronto Maple Leafs, Scotiabank Arena. ESPN will have the broadcast in the States while Sportsnet will have the broadcast in Canada.
This year Skills Competition has a new look with 12 NHL All-Stars competing for a $1 million (USD) winner-take-all prize.
The twelve skaters are as follows:
David Pastrnak (Boston Bruins)
Nathan MacKinnon (Colorado Avalanche)
Cale Makar (Colorado Avalanche)
Connor McDavid (Edmonton Oilers)
Leon Draisaitl (Edmonton Oilers)
Jack Hughes (New Jersey)
Matthew Barzal (New York Islanders)
Nikita Kucherov (Tampa Bay Lightning)
Auston Matthews (Toronto Maple Leafs)
William Nylander (Toronto Maple Leafs)
Quinn Hughes (Vancouver Canucks)
J.T. Miller (Vancouver Canucks)
Elias Pettersson (Vancouver Canucks)
The 12 NHL All-Stars in the skills competition each will compete in four of the first six events: the Fastenal NHL Fastest Skater, Rogers NHL Hardest Shot, Upper Deck NHL Stick Handling, Tim Hortons NHL One Timers, Scotiabank NHL Passing Challenge, and Cheetos NHL Accuracy Shooting. First place will be worth five points, second place four points, and so on.
The top eight will advance to the seventh event, the Honda NHL Shootout. The top six will advance to the final event: the Pepsi NHL Obstacle Course, which will include all skills and worth double the points. First place is 10 points, second place eight points, and so on.
Be sure to tune in on Twitter (@GatorBetting) for a more complex breakdown of the event as I’ll be going live around 5 PM!
Here is the past performances of all of the 12 skaters competing in the Skills Challenge.
Fastenal NHL Fastest Skater
Participants/ Odds (FanDuel):
Connor McDavid (+120)
Mathew Barzal (+220)
Cale Makar (+400)
William Nylander (+1000)
Quinn Hughes (+1000)
Winner:
Player with the fastest time
Procedure/ Rules:
The course is one full rink lap.
Each player has one attempt to establish their time.
Skater may choose direction of their lap.
Skater is positioned a maximum of three feet behind the start line located on the penalty box side of the centre line.
Skater starts on the referee’s whistle.
The timing device starts when the skater crosses the start line.
In case of a clock malfunction, the official time will be recorded from the official’s stopwatch.
Preview:
Based on the 2023-24 NHL Edge stats, McDavid has the fastest top skating speed.
However, Barzal won this event in 2020 dethroning McDavid. Instead of backing off of the favorite (McDavid (+120), I’m going to stick with Barzal (+220).
Pick(s):
Matthew Barzal (+220)
Tim Hortons NHL One-Timers
Participants/ Odds (FanDuel):
Auston Matthews (+500)
David Pastrnak (+500)
Nikita Kucherov (+550)
Elias Pettersson (+600)
Nathan MacKinnon (+600)
Leon Draisaitl (+600)
J.T. Miller (+650)
Mathew Barzal (+700)
Winner:
Player with the most points
Procedure/ Rules:
Passer to make passes from a predetermined position.
Player to shoot 3 one timers from each of the 3 designated shot positions.
Player will receive a maximum of 5 passes at each position to make their maximum 3 attempts.
Points are awarded based on the placement of the puck in the net.
Clock starts on official’s whistle.
Maximum time allowed is one minute to take all nine shots.
If a player breaks his stick the one-minute clock will be stopped, a new stick will be provided, and the shot will be replayed.
Four points earned if the shot goes in the upper slot, three points if shot goes in either of the side triangular slots, two points if the shot goes in the net, but not either of the 3 designated slots, one point if the shot hits one of the bars in the net and no points if the shot misses the net, ricochets off the net frame or hits the lower barrier.
Preview:
There’s not much information available on the NHL website or NHL Edge regarding One-timers statistics. However, the All Three Zones Project does have a stat to quantify One-timers (One-timers per 60). Looking at their Data, David Pastrnak jumps out which makes sense. He’s usually locked on the wall for Boston’s Power Play and has shown countless times that he’s one of the best in the leagues and getting the puck off his stick quickly. Kucherov is another guy that I like in this competition for similar reasons.
Pick(s):
David Pastrnak (+500)
Nikita Kucherov (+550)
Scotiabank NHL Passing Challenge
Participants/ Odds (FanDuel):
Connor McDavid (+750)
Cale Makar (+750)
Nikita Kucherov (+750)
Leon Draisaitl (+750)
William Nylander (+850)
Elias Pettersson (+850)
Quinn Hughes (+850)
Nathan MacKinnon (+850)
Auston Matthews (+950)
J.T. Miller (+950)
Matthew Barzal (+950)
Winner:
Player with the most points
Procedure/ Rules:
Player begins at either end of the rink behind the net.
Player has 45 seconds to complete 11 passes.
Targets will be placed in clusters on both sides of the rink.
Each of the 3 targets in a cluster will have different point values (1, 2, or 3).
Player will follow a set course and attempt passes at each of the 5 clusters.
Each successful pass earns the point value associated with the target hit.
The first 5 passes will be made from a path running from crease to crease and the player must remain within the path when making their pass. Officials to indicate to a player if they are moving offside.
A successful pass made by a player outside the path will not receive the point value of the target hit.
Passes 6 – 11 are from the face-off dot opposite to a cluster of targets at each end of the rink.
Players may not pass a puck after the 45 second clock has expired, but a puck in motion will be counted.
The accumulated points will stand for any player who “times out”.
Clock starts on official’s whistle.
Preview:
Makar and Hughes are both puck-moving defensemen who have shown they can make those breakout passes in tight spaces. Makar and Hughes currently rank in the top 5 for assists this season. I’m also adding Nylander in this competition as well based on his skill set.
Pick(s):
Cale Makar (+750)
Quinn Hughes (+850)
William Nylander (+850)
Rogers NHL Hardest Shot
Participants/ Odds (FanDuel):
Elias Pettersson (+175)
Cale Makar (+320)
J.T. Miller (+340)
Auston Matthews (+450)
David Pastrnak (+650)
Winner:
Player who records the fastest speed
Procedure/ Rules:
Two attempts for each player.
A single puck is positioned on the ice 30 feet from the center of the goal. A player, starting no further than the nearest blue line, may skate towards the puck and shoot it from its positioned spot into the goal.
Shots must be on goal to be calculated and all shots are recorded by the NHL puck tracking system.
If a puck enters the goal uncalculated due to a malfunction of the data capture, the shooter will be allowed an additional attempt.
If a player breaks their stick, they will be given another attempt.
Preview
Based on the 2023-24 NHL Edge stats, Elias Pettersson and J.T. Miller are the only players in the competition to register a shot this season over 97 mph. However, I think Pettersson will repeat and win this event again.
Pick(s):
Elias Pettersson (+175)
Upper Deck NHL Stick Handling
Participants/ Odds (FanDuel):
Connor McDavid (+500)
Nathan MacKinnon (+550)
David Pastrnak (+600)
William Nylander (+600)
Mathew Barzal (+650)
Nikita Kucherov (+650)
Leon Draisaitl (+750)
Elias Pettersson (+850)
Quinn Hughes (+950)
Winner:
Player with the fastest time
Procedure/ Rules:
Player to complete the following;
Stickhandling – Player controls the puck through a series of twenty pucks.
Cone Course – Player with a puck, skates forwards and backwards around a series of 4 cones.
Toe Drag – Player to carry the puck on the outside of the barrier and execute the toe drag around the 2nd barrier in front of the net and take a shot on goal
Clock starts on official’s whistle.
Player must maintain possession of puck at all times while completing the course or the player will be instructed to go back to the puck or cone that was missed to complete the skill.
Each skill must be completed before moving on to the next skill. Official whistles/signals completion of each skill.
Event ends when puck enters the goal net.
Pick(s):
Mathew Barzal (+650)
Quinn Hughes (+950)
Cheetos NHL Accuracy Shooting
Participants/ Odds (FanDuel):
Leon Draisaitl (+600)
David Pastrnak (+600)
Connor McDavid (+600)
Nikita Kucherov (+600)
Auston Matthews (+700)
Nathan MacKinnon (+800)
William Nylander (+800)
J.T. Miller (+850)
Cale Makar (+1200)
Quinn Hughes (+1200)
Winner:
Player with the fastest time
Procedure/ Rules:
Four destructible styrofoam targets 15 inches in diameter are attached to the goal posts, one target in each corner.
Two players, one on each side of the net, alternately pass pucks to a shooter positioned 25 feet out from the goal line.
Clock starts on official’s whistle.
Shooters compete at both ends of the rink, alternating attempts.
Any contact of a target by a puck that is shot is scored as a hit.
Clock stops when player has successfully hit all four targets.
Pick(s):
Connor McDavid (+600)
Nathan MacKinnon (+800)
Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting. Any feedback whether positive or negative is always encouraged.
Congrats to all Matthieu Pavon backers at the Farmers Insurance Open last week. He was able to capture his first win in 11 starts on the PGA Tour. Pavon also became the first Frenchman to win on TOUR since World War II.
The year of the longshots continues as the first four winners of the 2024 season were all greater than 100-1 to win pre-tournament.
Tournament
Winner
Pre-Tournament Odds
Farmers Insurance Open
Mattieu Pavon
140-1
The American Express
Nick Dunlap
300-1
Sony Open in Hawaii
Grayson Murray
400-1
The Sentry
Chris Kirk
200-1
Let’s get into this week’s storylines…
Tyrrell Hatton has joined the LIV Tour with a contract rumored to be roughly $60 Million. This is the second week in a row that we’ve had a player commit to an event and then back out the week of to join the rival Tour. As most know by now, Adrian Meronk, reigning DP World Tour Player of the Year, was committed to playing in the Farmers Insurance Open last week and on Tuesday announced his commitment to LIV. Tyrrell’s move to LIV is not only a sad day for PGA Tour fans who enjoyed his eccentric outbursts on the golf course but for Boston Common Golf fans as well. Hatton will join Jon Rham’s new team, Legion XIII.
Rory McIlroy will be making his 2024 season debut this week at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am. He’s played twice overseas this year having a strong start to his DP World Tour campaign. This will be the second time he’s competed in this event having missed the cut back in 2018.
After winning The American Express, Nick Dunlap, the sophomore from Alabama has decided to turn pro. He’s in the field for this week’s event so it’ll be interesting to see how he does against a stronger field. Dunlap is now exempt on TOUR through the end of the 2026 season and has a spot in this season’s seven remaining seven Signature Events, as well as THE PLAYERS, Masters, U.S. Open, and PGA Championship.
This year’s event has undergone a format change. Last year, this tournament featured a three-course rotation of Pebble Beach Golf Links, Spyglass Hills Golf Course, and Monterey Peninsula Country Club. After the first three rounds, the field would be cut to the top 65 before the final round on Sunday.
This year, the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am has been elevated to a Sigurate Event which has sparked some changes. To start, the field has been reduced to 80 players. There will also not be a cut this year. In addition to these format changes, the course rotation has been cut as well and will only feature Pebble Beach Golf Links and Spyglass Hills Golf Course. Players will play a round at both courses on Thursday and Friday. On the weekend, both rounds will take place at Pebble Beach Golf Links.
Tournament Information:
Dates: February 1st, 2024 – January 4th, 2024
Location: Pebble Beach, California, United States
Format: 72-hole stroke play
Thursday – Friday: 2 Course Rotation
Pebble Beach Golf Links
Spyglass Hill Golf Course
Saturday – Sunday: Pebble Beach Golf Links
Purse/ Winner: $20,000,000 /$3,600,000
FedEx Cup Points: 700
Field/ Cut: 80 Players | No Cut
Playoff Format: Sudden Death
Pebble Beach Golf Links
Par: 72 (4x 3’s / 10x 4’s / 4x 5’s)
Length: 6,972 Yards
Greens: Poa annua .125”
Fairways: Ryegrass/Poa annua .450”
Rough: Ryegrass/Poa annua 2-3”
Bunkers: 116
Water Hazard(s): 1- Pacific Ocean (In-Play on 1 Holes)
Average Green Size: 3,500 sq. ft.
Stimpmeter: 10.5 ft.
Course Scoring Average:
2023: 71.53 (-0.47), Rank 20 of 49
2022: 70.76 (-1.24), Rank 35 of 50
2021: 71.20 (-0.80), Rank 29 of 51
Course Architect:
Course Architect: Jack Neville & Douglas Grant (1919)
Renovations: Several
To see a complete history of the renovations at Pebble Beach you can click the following link.
Comparable Courses & Greens:
Comparable Courses:
Colonial Country Club – Charles Schwab Challenge – RESULTS
Windy Conditions, Short Course, Small Greens, Emphasis on Accuracy off the Tee, 2nd shot golf course
Sunday: Rain 54 F,18 mp/h SE, 78% Humidity, 74% Chance of Rain
Pebble Beach has experienced heavy rainfall leading up to the tournament. It’s currently projected to rain from Wednesday to Friday. This should lead to softer conditions which will help players on their approach shots. Off the tee, Pebble Beach is very short so it shouldn’t play too much of a factor.
In the past, we’ve seen wind conditions play a factor, especially at Pebble Beach which is more exposed to the coastline. The current forecast has wins projected to be around 10-15 MPH each day. This will be another factor players have to consider on their approach shots.
Last year we saw weather conditions delay this finish at this event until Monday which is a possibility this year. However, it’s less likely since we have a smaller field and the Pro-Am only takes place for the first two rounds.
Course/ Tournament History:
The Tournament was founded back in 1937 as the Bing Crosby National Pro-Amateur. In 1986, the AT&T Corporation became the title sponsor and has retained the rights ever since. The tournament has rotated between several courses throughout its history but has stuck with the current three since 2010. In 2019, the U.S. Open was hosted at Pebble Beach with Gary Woodland coming away victorious.
This year’s event has undergone a format change. Last year, this tournament featured a three-course rotation of Pebble Beach Golf Links, Spyglass Hills Golf Course, and Monterey Peninsula Country Club. After the first three rounds, the field would be cut to the top 65 before the final round on Sunday.
This year, the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am has been elevated to a Sigurate Event which has sparked some changes. To start, the field has been reduced to 80 players. There will also not be a cut this year. In addition to these format changes, the course rotation has been cut as well and will only feature Pebble Beach Golf Links and Spyglass Hills Golf Course. Players will play a round at both courses on Thursday and Friday. On the weekend, both rounds will take place at Pebble Beach Golf Links.
Most Wins at Event:
5, Mark O’Meara (1985, 1989, 1990, 1992, 1997) & Phil Mickelson (1998, 2005, 2007, 2012, 2019)
72-Hole Record:
265, Brandt Snedeker (2015)
18-Hole Record (Pebble Beach Golf Links):
62, Tom Kite (third round, 1983), David Duval (third round, 1997), Patrick Cantlay (first round, 2021), Matthias Schwab (second round, 2022)
18-Hole Record (Spyglass Hill):
62, Phil Mickelson (first round, 2005), Luke Donald (first round, 2006)
Course Guide/ Scorecard:
For the third week in a row, we have an event that utilizes multiple courses. On Thursday and Friday, golfers will play one round at Pebble Beach and Spyglass Hill. Both of the weekend rounds will be played at Pebble Beach. This will be the first time since 2021 (COVID-19 Season) that we have seen three rounds played at Pebble Beach. Spyglass Hill doesn’t have ShotLink so Pebble Beach will be the sole provider of historical strokes gained data.
Pebble Beach Golf Links
Pebble Beach is the third shortest course on the PGA Tour playing just 6,972 yards. The main defense for this course, is the wind coming off the Pacific, to which the majority of the holes are exposed to. In addition to the wind, Pebble Beach features the smallest greens on TOUR. With the smaller greens, players have struggled to hit the greens in regulation placing an emphasis on SG: Around the Green and Scrambling. The average driving distance at this course is also much lower than the PGA TOUR Event average which makes sense. Off the tee, many players will choose to club down since the fairways are on the narrower side and the additional length doesn’t provide as much of an advantage as it would on a longer course. Also, some of the holes on this course force you to layup which impacts that as well.
The four Par 3’s range from 106 to 202 yards. Last year, No. 7 and No. 17 were the only two Par 3’s to have a scoring average under par.
No. 5, 192 yards, Par 3: Designed by Jack Nicklaus and opened for play in 1998, this green feeds from front-left to back-right. Beware of the bunker behind the green — it cuts into the putting surface more than it appears from the tee.
No. 7, 106 yards, Par 3: Take a look at the flag on the sixth green to gauge what the wind is doing. Aces have been made here with clubs ranging from a lob wedge to a 3-iron.
No. 17, 177 yards, Par 3: This iconic hourglass-shaped green can play 15 yards longer or shorter depending on the pin placement. The traditional Sunday U.S. Open hole location is back-left, where Jack Nicklaus famously hit the flag with a 1-iron and Tom Watson chipped in.
There are ten Par 4’s at Pebble Beach with the majority of those holes ranging between 400 and 450 yards. In terms of scoring average, the toughest Par 4 on the course last year was No. 9.
No. 8, 427 yards, Par 4: From the bottom tees, an aiming rock helps you find this fairway, which pours over a cliff after about 240 yards. From there, enjoy what Jack Nicklaus calls his favorite approach shot in all of golf, over a seaside chasm to a green that steeply slopes from back to front. This was also the scene of Jordan Speith’s miraculous shot in 2022.
No. 9, 481 yards, Par 4: Welcome to the toughest hole of the 2019 U.S. Open. The fairway plateaus 200 yards from the green, before falling right to Carmel Beach. Big drives get you closer to this well-protected green, but you’ll have to deal with a downhill lie.
There are four Par 5s on the course, No. 2, No. 6, No. 14, and No. 18. All of these holes had a scoring average under par in 2023 except No. 18. Hole No. 2 was the easiest hole on the course last year with a scoring average of 0.238 below par.
No. 6, 506 yards, Par 5: Take a good look at where the green is as you walk up to your drive. The second shot of this iconic par-5 climbs nearly four stories to an elevated second fairway.
No. 18, 543 yards, Par 5: It’s the most famous finishing hole in golf. Aggressive drives attempting to reach this par-5 in two need to send their tee shots left of the tree in the fairway. Or you can safely play to the right of the tree, lay up, and wedge onto the green.
Featured/ Signature Hole(s): 7, 18
For a hole-by-hole overview of the course, you can click the following link.
Spyglass Hill
Spyglass Hill Golf Course is the longer of the two courses featured this week. Listed at 7,041 yards, it’s the fifth shortest course on TOUR. The first five holes are the only holes exposed to winds off the Pacific Ocean. After that, the tree-lined holes limit the effect the wind has on the golf ball. The four Par 5’s on the course are long but it does feature some very short Par 4’s that players will need to take advantage of. The greens average around 5,000 sq. ft. which in comparison, is much larger than Pebble. However, just like Pebble, second shots will be placed at a premium.
The four Par 3’s range from 130 to 203 yards. Last year on Hole No. 15, which plays just 130 yards, more birdies were made than bogeys.
No. 3 ‘The Black Spot’, 172 yards, Par 3: The tee box yields a specular view of Cypress Point Club, Bird Rock, and Monterey Peninsula Country Club. Since this downhill shot faces the Pacific Ocean, it is almost always into a seaside breeze, making the distance difficult to calculate. Once you find the green, notice that putts race to the ocean.
No. 15 ‘Jim Hawkins’, 130 yards, Par 3: Barely longer than the famous seventh hole at Pebble Beach, this downhill par-3 is guarded by a pond short, and a hillside dotted with bunkers long. Watch out for a tier that divides the upper back half of the green from the lower front.
There are ten Par 4’s at Spyglass Hill with the majority of those holes ranging between 400 and 450 yards. In terms of scoring average, the toughest Par 4 on the course last year was No. 6.
No. 4 ‘Blind Pew’, 370 yards, Par 4: This is Robert Trent Jones Sr.’s favorite par-4 he ever designed. Admire this wild green sunken between sand dunes. The putting surface is just 10 yards wide at its most forgiving, and some 55 yards deep. Be mindful of the hole location. It will dictate the type of shot you’ll want to play.
No. 17 ‘Ben Gunn’, 325 yards, Par 4: This short dogleg-left par-4 wraps around four fairway bunkers. You don’t need much off the tee, but you’ll want to keep your second shot below the hole. The 17th green is one of the steepest on the course.
There are four Par 5s on the course, No. 1, No. 7, No. 11, and No. 14. All of these holes had a scoring average under par in 2023.
No. 11 ‘Admiral Benbow’, 562 yards, Par 5: Aggressive drives that cut the corner can pay off big-time here, setting up reachable second shots into this par 5. If you can’t get home in two, it’s wise to lay up at the end of the first fairway, 125 yards out, and short of an armory of bunkers guarding the right half of the green.
No. 14 ‘Long John Silver’, 560 yards, Par 5: This double-doglegging par-5 is challenging to reach in two because of its shape. An imposing pond also starts 70 yards in front of the green. The middle half of this green does feed right, which can help approaches work their way toward a hole tucked behind the pond.
Hole
Name
Par
Yardage
Hole
Name
Par
Yardage
1
Treasure Island
5
595
10
Captain Flint
4
407
2
Billy Bones
4
349
11
Admiral Benbow
5
561
3
The Black Spot
3
172
12
Skeleton Island
3
178
4
Blind Pew
4
370
13
Tom Morgan
4
460
5
Bird Rock
3
203
14
Long John Silver
5
560
6
Isreal Hands
4
446
15
Jim Hawkins
3
130
7
Indian Village
5
549
16
Black Dog
4
476
8
Signal Hill
4
399
17
Ben Gunn
4
325
9
Captain Smollett
4
431
18
Spyglass
4
430
OUT
36
3514
IN
36
3527
TOTAL
72
7041
Featured/ Signature Hole(s): 4
For a hole-by-hole overview of the course, you can click the following link.
Key Statistics:
Statistics
PGA Tour Average
Pebble Beach
Spyglass Hills
Driving Distance (Yards)
267.85
283.62
–
Driving Accuracy
72%
62%
64%
GIR Percentage
63%
66%
61%
Avg GIR Prox to Hole (Feet)
26.58
29.08
–
Scrambling Percentage
57%
58%
61%
Avg 3 Putts / Round
0.50
0.55
0.69
Good Drives Gained
Unlike Torrey Pines, accuracy is more important than distance off the tee this week at Pebble Beach. Playing 6,972 yards, Pebble Beach is one of the shortest courses on TOUR. Many players will keep the driver in the bag on certain holes opting for a safer play. Good Drives Gained is a more indicative stat for success here at Pebble as it measures a player’s ability to hit a green in regulation whether they are in the fairway or not.
Leaders in this category in the last 36 Rounds:
Scottie Scheffler (Total: +40.72, Per Round: +1.13)
J.J. Spaun (Total: +39.31, Per Round: +1.09)
Collin Morikawa (Total: +38.77, Per Round: +1.08)
Rory McIlroy (Total: +35.02, Per Round: +0.97)
Viktor Hovland (Total: +34.72, Per Round: +0.96)
Strokes Gained: Approach
While Pebble Beach isn’t a long course by any means, it does feature the smallest greens on TOUR. Having a strong iron game will be important this week if players want to succeed.
Leaders in this category in the last 36 Rounds:
Scottie Scheffler (Total: +50.05, Per Round: +1.39)
Lucas Glover (Total: +41.28, Per Round: +1.15)
Collin Morikawa (Total: +33.27, Per Round: +0.92)
Alex Smalley (Total: +28.97, Per Round: +0.80)
Xander Schauffele (Total: +28.82, Per Round: +0.80)
Strokes Gained: Around the Green
This tournament has a much lower Greens in Regulation Percentage than the average TOUR Event. This means that players are going to miss greens at a higher rate forcing them to rely on their short game if they want to have success this week.
Leaders in this category in the last 36 Rounds:
Rickie Fowler (Total: +20.13, Per Round: +0.56)
Scottie Scheffler (Total: +16.59, Per Round: +0.46)
Russell Henley (Total: +16.36, Per Round: +0.45)
Sam Stevens (Alternate)
Mackenzie Hughes (Total: +13.65, Per Round: +0.38)
Brendon Todd (Total: +13.07, Per Round: +0.36)
Strokes Gained: Putting (Poa)
The green complexes at Pebble Beach are Poa annua .125”. Spyglass Hill also features a Poa annua green complex.
Leaders in this category in the last 36 Rounds:
Denny McCarthy (Total: +38.82, Per Round: +1.08)
Max Homa (Total: +31.62, Per Round: +0.88)
Maverick McNealy (Total: +28.03, Per Round: +0.78)
Peter Malnati (Total: +26.40, Per Round: +0.73)
Matt Kuchar (Total: +25.19, Per Round: +0.70)
Par 3 Scoring: 175-200 Yards (x2 Pebble Beach, x2 Spyglass Hill)
Two of the four Par 3’s at Pebble Beach range between 175-200 Yards. Two of the four Par 3’s at Spyglass Hill also range between 175-200 Yards.
Leaders in this category in the last 36 Rounds:
Eric Cole (Total: +11.56, Per Round: +0.32)
Chris Kirk (Total: +10.99, Per Round: +0.31)
Collin Morikawa (Total: +8.92, Per Round: +0.25)
Luke List (Total: +8.86, Per Round: +0.25)
Brandon Wu (Total: +8.77, Per Round: +0.24)
Par 4 Scoring: 400-450 Yards (x5 Pebble Beach, x4 Spyglass Hill)
Five of the ten Par 4’s at Pebble Beach range between 400-450 Yards. Four of Spyglass Hill’s ten Par 4’s also range between 400-450 Yards.
Leaders in this category in the last 36 Rounds:
Russell Henley (Total: +32.37, Per Round: +0.90)
Ludvig Aberg (Total: +21.02, Per Round: +0.58)
Beau Hossler (Total: +21.00, Per Round: +0.58)
Justin Rose (Total: +19.50, Per Round: +0.54)
Adam Scott (Total: +18.67, Per Round: +0.52)
Par 5 Scoring: 500-550 Yards (x3 Pebble Beach)
Three of the four Par 5’s at Pebble Beach range between 500-550 Yards.
Leaders in this category in the last 36 Rounds:
Chun-an (Kevin) Yu (Total: +15.03, Per Round: +0.42)
Tom Kim (Total: +12.35, Per Round: +0.34)
Sepp Straka (Total: +11.85, Per Round: +0.33)
Ludvig Aberg (Total: +10.68, Per Round: +0.30)
Luke List (Total: +8.30, Per Round: +0.23)
Proximity Gained: 100-125 Yards
Below is the approach shot distribution chart from last year’s event (via DataGolf). Most approach shots come from the 100-125 yard range at a volume much higher than the PGA Tour average.
Leaders in Proximity Gained from 100-125 yards in the last 36 Rounds:
Hideki Matsuyama (Total: +367.92, Per Round: +10.22)
Brendon Todd (Total: +277.74, Per Round: +7.71)
Adam Hadwin (Total: +254.02, Per Round: +7.06)
Lucas Glover (Total: +219.28, Per Round: +6.09)
Camilo Villegas (Alternate)
Collin Morikawa (Total: +207.77, Per Round: +5.77)
Comparable Courses and Event History
Looking at the Data Golf Course History Tool, good course history is indicative of success at Pebble Beach. Each of the past five winners has played in this tournament before winning and had registered a top-15 finish or better.
Leaders in this category in the last (Multiple Events Played):
Jason Day (13 Events – 69.18 Scoring Average)
Jordan Spieth (11 Events – 69.25 Scoring Average)
Patrick Cantlay (6 Events – 69.38 Scoring Average)
Taylor Moore (2 Events – 69.38 Scoring Average)
Justin Rose (4 Events – 69.50 Scoring Average)
The Field/ Odds:
This year, the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am field is comprised of the top 50 in last season’s FedExCup standings, the top 10 finishers in the FedExCup Fall standings (Aon Next 10), and the top five FedExCup points earners in the Sony Open in Hawaii, The American Express and Farmers Insurance Open (Aon Swing 5).
This is the best field we’ve seen at Pebble Beach since the 2019 U.S. Open. The format changes have attracted some of the biggest names in golf.
There will be 80 players competing in this year’s tournament. Eighteen of the top twenty players in the Official World Golf Ranking are in the field. Here are the current favorites in this week’s event:
Rory McIlroy (+750) will make his first start of the 2024 PGA Tour Season. However, he’s played twice on the DP World Tour this month. Most recently he won the Hero Dubai Desert Classic and before that finished T2 in the Dubai Invitational. This will be his second appearance at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am. In his event debut back in 2018, he missed the cut. In 2019, when Pebble Beach hosted the U.S. Open, McIlroy finished T9.
Scottie Scheffler (+800) will make his AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am debut this week. However, he did play in the 2019 U.S. Open where he missed the cut. He didn’t play in the Farmers Insurance Open last week but has played twice so far in the 2024 season. In his first two events of the year, he finished T5 at The Sentry and T17 at The American Express. He gained strokes in every category besides putting in both of those events.
Viktor Hovland (+1200) will make his third appearance at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am. In 2020, he finished T38 at this event and more recently finished T13 last year. In 2019, when Pebble Beach hosted the U.S. Open, Hovland finished T12. So far, he’s only played in one event this season, The Sentry, where he finished T22.
Xander Schauffele (+1600) will make his second appearance at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am. In his event debut back in 2017, he finished T66. However, he did play in the 2019 U.S. Open where he finished T3. He’s played in two events to start the 2024 season finishing T10 at The Sentry and T3 at The American Express.
Jordan Spieth (+1600) will make his second start of the 2024 PGA Tour Season. He played in the Sentry earlier this month where he finished 3rd. Spieth has some of the best course history at this event with multiple top-10 finishes. He’s also won the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am back in 2017. In his eleven appearances at this tournament, he has never missed the cut.
Previous Winners in the Field:
Justin Rose (’23), Tom Hoge (’22), Nick Taylor (’21), Jordan Spieth (’17)
Debutants in the Field (Event):
Cameron Young, Collin Morikawa, Emiliano Grillo, Hideki Matsuyama, Ludvig Aberg, Matthieu Pavon, Nick Dunlap, Nicolai Hojgaard, Scottie Scheffler, Taylor Montgomery, Tom Kim, Tyrrell Hatton
Players with Pebble Beach ties in the Field:
Maverick McNealy (Born in Portola Valley, CA & Went to Stanford), Collin Morikawa (Went to University of California, Berkeley)
Notable Withdraws:
Tyrrell Hatton (Illness LIV Tour) -> IN: Hayden Buckley
To see the most up-to-date odds, you can click the following link.
To see the full field for this event and how they qualified, you can click the following link.
Projected Final Score
72 Hole Winning Score – 272.5 (-15.5)
Going back to 2015, all of the previous winners of the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am have had a winning score of -17 or lower. However, when the U.S. Open was played here in 2019, Gary Woodland had a winning score of -13. The conditions for the U.S. Open were significantly harder than for the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am as they grew the rough out to 3-5″ (currently 2-3″) and also cut the greens lower to .110″ (currently .125″). The weather is projected to be terrible and similar to what we saw last year. Even with the horrendous conditions, Justin Rose had a winning score of -18. We also have a much stronger field than any previous AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am. Based on all of the factors, I would lean over on the winning score being above 272.5 (-130).
To place a bet on the Projected Final Score of the Winner, you can click the following link.
Facts & Figures:
11 of the last 12 winners had already won on the PGA Tour
Each of the last 12 winners have made 120+ career starts before winning here
Each of the last 12 winners had a T16 or better finish in one of their previous three starts at this event
“Horses for Courses” is a phrase that is widely used and describes the best course/tournament fits. These are the players that have had success at the particular course/event. “Donkeys for Courses” is something I came up with that highlights the players who have struggled at a specific course/tournament.
Previous Winners Scores, Prices, and Strokes Gained (Rank at Tournament):
2023: Justin Rose (-18)
Price: 35-1
SG: Off the Tee
SG: Tee to Green
SG: Approach
SG: Around the Green
SG: Putting
Justin Rose
57
7
14
4
14
2022: Tom Hoge (-19)
Price: 60-1
SG: Off the Tee
SG: Tee to Green
SG: Approach
SG: Around the Green
SG: Putting
Tom Hoge
19
3
4
22
3
2021: Daniel Berger (-18)
Price: 18-1
SG: Off the Tee
SG: Tee to Green
SG: Approach
SG: Around the Green
SG: Putting
Daniel Berger
7
2
6
11
18
2020: Nick Taylor (-19)
Price: 160-1
SG: Off the Tee
SG: Tee to Green
SG: Approach
SG: Around the Green
SG: Putting
Nick Taylor
54
19
13
13
2
2019: Phil Mickelson (-19)
Price: 25-1
SG: Off the Tee
SG: Tee to Green
SG: Approach
SG: Around the Green
SG: Putting
Phil Mickelson
26
2
1
30
20
Previous Winners Incoming Form (Last 5 Starts):
2023: Justin Rose
T18 – Farmers Insurance Open (PGA)
T26 – The American Express (PGA)
T29 – The RSM Classic (PGA)
T9 – Cadence Bank Houston Open (PGA)
MC- World Wide Technology Championship (PGA)
2022: Tom Hoge
MC – Farmers Insurance Open (PGA)
T4 – The RSM Classic (PGA)
T46 – Hewlett Packard Enterprise Houston Open (PGA)
T46- World Wide Technology Championship (PGA)
17 – ZOZO CHAMPIONSHIP (PGA)
2021: Daniel Berger
MC – Waste Management Phoenix Open (PGA)
T7 – Sony Open in Hawaii (PGA)
10 – Sentry Tournament of Champions (PGA)
T23 – Mayakoba Golf Classic (PGA)
T17 – ZOZO CHAMPIONSHIP (PGA)
2020: Nick Taylor
T49 – Waste Management Phoenix Open (PGA)
MC – The American Express (PGA)
T32 – Sony Open in Hawaii (PGA)
MC – The RSM Classic (PGA)
T26 – Mayakoba Golf Classic (PGA)
2019: Phil Mickelson
MC – Waste Management Phoenix Open (PGA)
T2 – Desert Classic (PGA)
T17 – Safeway Open (PGA)
30 – TOUR Championship (PGA)
T58 – BMW Championship (PGA)
Previous Winners Finishes at Event:
2023: Justin Rose
62 – 2022 (AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am)
T39 – 2017 (AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am)
T6 – 2016 (AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am)
2022: Tom Hoge
12 – 2021 (AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am)
T60 – 2020 (AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am)
MC – 2019 (AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am)
MC – 2018 (AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am)
T39 – 2017 (AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am)
T41 – 2016 (AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am)
MC – 2015 (AT&T Pebble Beach National Pro-Am)
2021: Daniel Berger
T5 – 2020 (AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am)
T10 – 2015 (AT&T Pebble Beach National Pro-Am)
2020: Nick Taylor
T28 – 2019 (AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am)
MC – 2018 (AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am)
T10 – 2017 (AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am)
T30 – 2016 (AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am)
MC – 2015 (AT&T Pebble Beach National Pro-Am)
2019: Phil Mickelson
T2 – 2018 (AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am)
65 – 2017 (AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am)
2 – 2016 (AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am)
T19 – 2014 (AT&T Pebble Beach National Pro-Am)
T60 – 2013 (AT&T Pebble Beach National Pro-Am)
WON – 2012 (AT&T Pebble Beach National Pro-Am)
T9 – 2011 (AT&T Pebble Beach National Pro-Am)
T8 – 2010 (AT&T Pebble Beach National Pro-Am)
T55 – 2009 (AT&T Pebble Beach National Pro-Am)
MC – 2008 (AT&T Pebble Beach National Pro-Am)
WON – 2007 (AT&T Pebble Beach National Pro-Am)
T38 – 2006 (AT&T Pebble Beach National Pro-Am)
WON – 2005 (AT&T Pebble Beach National Pro-Am)
3 – 2004 (AT&T Pebble Beach National Pro-Am)
Picks (Outrights):
Max Homa (+1800) – BetMGM
Risk: 0.45 to win 8.10 Units
Homa is a West Coast specialist with a majority of wins coming in his home state of California. In his first two starts of the 2024 season, he finished T14 at The Sentry and T13 at the Farmers Insurance Open. He has some great history at this event finishing inside the top 15 in each of his last three appearances.
This event has shown that a hot putter is directly correlated with success. Homa currently ranks #1 in the field in SG: Putting (Poa) in the last 36 rounds. He also ranks well in several other key categories this week. In his last start at the Farmers, he struggled with his approach shots but still managed a decent finishing position. He’s also one of the better players when it comes to windy conditions which is another advantage this week.
J.T. Poston (+5000) – BetMGM
Risk: 0.16 to win 8.00 Units
Poston has had a stellar start to the 2024 Season. In his first three starts this year, he finished T5 at The Sentry, 6th at the Sony Open in Hawaii, and T11 at The American Express. He’s played in this event twice before finishing T68 in 2018 and T66 in 2017. However, since those finishes his approach game has significantly improved. Along with his iron game, his putting remains great and his tee game is also on the upswing.
Poston also had some success on a few comp courses last year finishing T21 at the Sony Open (Waialae Country Club), and T21 at the RSM Classic (Sea Island Golf Club).
Eric Cole (+6600) – BetMGM
Risk: 0.13 to win 8.58 Units
Eric Cole put together a string of strong finishes to start the 2024 season but struggled last week at the Farmers Insurance Open failing to make the cut. He’s struggled with his putting the past few weeks which is a slight concern. Despite that, he was a great putter in the first two events so if he’s able to turn that around he should have a shot this week. In his only previous appearance at this tournament, he finished T15. He’s had some solid finishes at comp courses this week including Sea Island Golf Club (T3) and Waialae Country Club (T13).
Adam Scott (+7500) – FanDuel
Risk: 0.11 to win 8.25 Units
Adam Scott will make his first appearance of the 2024 PGA Tour season. His spot in the field is even a little questionable as he’s on the PGA Tour board and received one of the sponsor exemptions. He’s been overseas playing in the DP World Tour. Scott has had some pretty impressive results over there finishing T7 at the Hero Dubai Desert Classic, T4 at the ISPS Handa Australian Open, and 6th at the Fortinet Australian PGA Championship. Heading into the later part of the 2023 season Scott’s game improved. Last year he did well at a few comparable courses including Port Royal (T5), Harbour Town (T31), and Waialae (T21).
In terms of this event, he hasn’t had a ton of success here. His downfall in those appearances was his putting and his accuracy off the tee. However, based on his last few starts, he’s been much better in both categories. While he hasn’t won a PGA Tour event since 2020, we also saw a similar situation with Rose winning here last year having not won since 2019. It should also be noted that while Scott hasn’t done well at this tournament in the past, he did finish T7 in the U.S. Open that was played at Pebble.
Chun-an (Kevin) Yu (+10000) – FanDuel
Risk: 0.08 to win 8.00 Units
Chun-an (Kevin) Yu has had a stellar start to the 2024 season. In his last two events, he finished T3 at The American Express and T6 at the Farmers Insurance Open. Last year in his first start at Pebble, he finished T7. He’s a terrific ball striker who has had issues with his play on the green in the past. However, in his last two starts on Tour, he gained strokes putting.
Yu has also had success at other coastal courses including a T3 finish at the Butterfield Bermuda Championship and a T21 finish at the Sony Open. He hasn’t won yet on the PGA Tour but as we’ve seen in the past four events of the season, anything can happen.
Adam Hadwin (+10000) – FanDuel
Risk: 0.08 to win 8.00 Units
Hadwin last played in this tournament back in 2022 where he posted a T16 finish. He’s played in the AT&T Pebble Bacvk Pro-Am three additional times finishing MC-T18-T39. His approach game has always been on and off but it seems to be trending in the right direction.
In his last three starts, he finished T6 at The American Express, MC at the Sony Open, and T14 at The Sentry. At the Sony Open, Hadwin’s inconsistency off the tee hurt him in addition to his putting. I’m not too worried about either category this week as we saw him rebound the week after at the American Express.
Nick Taylor (+11000) – FanDuel
Risk: 0.08 to win 8.80 Units
Nick Taylor won this event back in 2020 putting his way to victory. Since then, he’s finished T39 (2021), T14 (2022), and T20 (2023) at this event. We’ve seen plenty of players win this event multiple times so I wouldn’t be shocked if he wins it again based on his current form.
In his most recent start, he missed the cut at The American Express. Before that, he had a T7 finish at the Sony Open in Hawaii (comp course), and tied for 52nd at The Sentry. Taylor is a great ball striker with his approach numbers proving it in those last few events. He has struggled with his short game in the past but it looks to be slowly improving. Off the tee, he struggles with distance which shouldn’t be an issue this week given the length of the course. His putting has also been great as of late and based on his 2020 performance he may do the same thing this week.
Brendon Todd (+11000) – FanDuel
Risk: 0.08 to win 8.80 Units
Brendon Todd wasn’t on my original card but after looking more into his stats, I couldn’t leave him off. In his first two starts of the season, he finished T30 at the Sony Open in Hawaii and T33 at The Sentry. He lost strokes off the tee in both of those events due to his distance, not his accuracy. Todd isn’t a bomber off the tee by any means but is consistently accuracy which is more important this week.
He has some impressive course history this week finished T2 at last year’s event and T16 in 2022. Todd has seemed to find some stability with his putting and approach game so I think he has a shot this week. I picked him to win this event last year and he came up short so hopefully he doesn’t disappoint again.
Total Risk on Outrights: 1.18 Units
Picks (Top 20):
Matthew Fitzpatrick (+115) – BetMGM
Risk: 1.00 to win 1.15 Units
Given the current conditions, Fitzpatrick is always a guy that jumps out for me. He struggled at the Sony Open in his last start missing the cut. He lost strokes in every category besides on approach. In his only other start of 2024, he finished T14 at The Sentry. This will be his fourth time playing at Pebble with his best finish coming back in 2022 (T6). At the 2019, U.S. Open Fitzpatrick finished T12.
Last year, Fitzpatrick had his struggles, especially with his iron game. However, he turned that around and was able to win at the RBC Heritage, which is a comp course this week. He thrives in these short courses where he can plot his way around and rely on his approach shots. We saw him take this approach at the Country Club in 2022 where he won the U.S. Open.
Nicolai Hojgaard (+140) – BetMGM
Risk: 1.00 to win 1.40 Units
Hojgaard is coming off a strong finish at the Farmers Insurance Open finishing 2nd, gaining strokes in every category. This was the first event in his past three starts that he has gained strokes on the green. I’m not sure if it had to do with the Poa Annua surface, but hopefully, there is some correlation as Pebble has a similar green complex. Hojgaard is known for his ball-striking ability and his approach game has remained in good form.
He’s proven he can compete with the stars as he defeated Rahm, Hovland, Rory, and a few others at the DP World Tour Championship. Even a week before that, he finished runner-up to Max Homa at the Nedbank Golf Challenge.
This will be his debut at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am so we don’t have any course history to go off of. If we look back last year he proved that he could still play well in windy conditions shown at The Open and the Genesis Scottish Open. He’s also had success at coastal courses as well posting a 2nd place finish at the Corales Puntacana Championship.
Beau Hossler (+160) – BetMGM
Risk: 1.00 to win 1.60 Units
Hossler had a strong finish to the 2023 season with three consecutive top-15 finishes to end the Fall Swing. He struggled in his first event of 2025 finishing T47 at The American Express losing strokes on approach. He rebounded well at the Farmers Insurance Open putting together an impressive performance to finish T6.
Hossler is from Califonia and has had success at this event in the past finishing 3rd in 2022 and T11 in 2023. Off the tee, Hossler’s strength is certainly accuracy over distance which is advantageous for this week’s event.
Total Risk on Top 20s: 3.00 Units
As always, all of my placement bets are through BetMGM as they’re one of the only books without dead-heat rules. If you’d like to bet these placements at BetMGM, you can get up to $1500 in Bonus Bets if you don’t win if you’re a first-time user.
Total Risk on the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am: 4.09 Units
Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting. Any feedback whether positive or negative is always encouraged.
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San Diego State vs Colorado State -2.5 O/U 142.5
This is a great game to watch in the Mountain West tonight. The Rams are coming off of a devastating loss at Wyoming in overtime where they gave up 11 points in less than a minute left in regulation. They lost both road appearances. The Aztecs are feeling ok at 16-4 coming off of a win a week ago at home vs Wyoming. San Diego State is a great defensive team, but they struggle to score points on the road. This team only shoots 49.4% in road games and 31.3% from three point land in all games thus far. Colorado State is a massive 59.5% effective FG% at home. We also have to notice that the Aztecs give up 48.3% effective FG% on the road which isn’t that good. This Rams team is in a spot where they drastically need this win. They have an amazing home court in Fort Collins, Colorado. I’ll take them on the Money Line to win.
On this week’s episode of Expected Bets For, @FrancoTheBanker, @gretzkybetzkys and I break down the NHL slate for January 30th-31st and offer our best bets.
Topics:
[0:00-2:55] Introduction
[2:56-12:21] Columbus Blue Jackets @ St. Louis Blues
[12:22-19:54] Seattle Kraken @ San Jose Sharks
[19:55-27:35] Ottawa Senators @ Detroit Red Wings
[27:36-33:36] Los Angeles Kings @ Nashville Predators
[33:37-40:45] San Jose Sharks @ Anahiem Ducks
[40:46-53:14] NHL All-Star Skills Competition Props
We have a great show for you today! First, Kiev recaps the weekend in college basketball and NFL football with some reactions and some thoughts. Next, Kiev talks about the good the bad and the ugly in sports from last weekend. After that, we get into a first look for the 2024 Super Bowl 58 with a Free Play. Should you have any questions for the podcast, or games that you want us to cap during our shows, please message us at Info@TheOddsBreakers.com. Have a wonderful week!
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63% FOR 2022 COLLEGE BOWL SEASON UP 27 UNITS!
54% Lifetime All Plays in College Basketball 3% ROI
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62% 2022 March Madness College Basketball Plays at 30% ROI!!!
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Chiefs vs Ravens -4 O/U 44.5
The Chiefs were a wonderful play for us last week both from a Teaser perspective and a side, but now things are a changing. The Chiefs are a bit more banged up than they were even last week with Nnadi out. Their best LB and QB Spy Willie Gay is questionable as he hurt his neck in the Bills game. Safety Mike Edwards had a concussion which makes him doubtful for this game. Offensive guard Joe Thuney also strained his peck and won’t go which is a huge blow to stopping big nose tackles like Michael Pierce. Ouch. The Ravens had an easier matchup and playoff run with the bye and last week’s game vs the Texans. Lamar took over in the second half, and did what Lamar does best. kansas City’s weakness last week was against running QB Josh Allen in which they couldn’t stop him on the ground. Kansas City’s rushing has been good with Pacheco averaging 4.4 yards per attempt, but the Ravens have been better at 5.0 yards per attempt. Guys like Gus Edwards and Justice Hill have really stepped it up. Advantage Ravens. As it comes to the passing game, nobody can do it like Mahomes, but we have to remember the fact that they are thin at wide receiver and Kelce has definitely been showing his age as of late. Believe it or not, if you throw in Lamar as a pure playmaker has boosted his QBR ahead of Mahomes ranking 4th in the regular season to Mahomes at 8th. The Ravens are number one in QB sacks. Their Defense is number 16th in rush EPA with their bend don’t break style. The Chiefs rank 28th in the same category. Not good against the number one rushing team in the league. With the injuries to the Chiefs and the tough road that they have had, I like the Ravens winning by 6 points 24-18.
Ravens -4 -1.5 stars
Lions vs 49ers -7 O/U 51
There was a huge scare in Santa Clara last week as the Packers probably should have closed out the game vs the 9ers. Much of the blame lies with Brock Purdy who seems to struggle in the rain. The good news is that the weather should be nice this Sunday for this game. Let’s cut to the chase here. The Lions have a wonderful offense both passing and running at 6.1 yards per play but the 49ers when cooking are really that much better at 6.8 yards per play. The Lions defense has been the crutch for this team ranking 21st in opponent EPA when the 49ers rank 10th. The 9ers have a 1.4 net yards per play advantage over the Lions. The big question is if Brock Purdy can play a good game. I trust Goff to get his points with that Lions offense, but that defense can just be so bad. Another question about this game is if Deebo Samuel can really play or might he act as a decoy. I have 49ers by 6.5 points so this seven is a little bit high. If you find a 7.5, it’s a play on the Lions. Instead I will play a prop here. Brandon Aiyuk is a good receiver, but there are just way too many playmakers for the 49ers in this game. His total is too high.
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TCU vs Baylor -4.5 O/U 150
This should be a fun Big 12 game today! TCU has been a tough nut to crack lately for me as I had Oklahoma State +4.5 and lost by a half point but I will go against again. Baylor is a sleeping giant in the Big 12. They rank 6th at home/road splits. and they have only had gotten two total homes games thus far in Big 12 play. The Bears rank top 20 in both offensive and defensive adjusted shot quality rankings at Shotquality.com. Baylor Shoots 62% effective FG at home while TCU is at 51% on the road. The Horned Frogs are pretty hot lately, but I think that they have reached their peek. Ranking 325th in home road splits doesn’t bode well for them in this spot. Another issue for this team is that they do not shoot many 3s. They have a poor rim and three rate so if they get behind today, it will be hard for them to catch up. Lastly, TCU’s schedule in the non-conference has been cake with their best win against Arizona State. I like Baylor big here.
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Orlando at Memphis +6, O/U 212.5
8:10pm ET
The Magic came off their 4-game road trip with very little effort, losing 2 of 3 at home and giving up 124 and 126 points in each of the losses. Not good for a squad giving up on average 111 points so far this season, ranking them 6th in the league. As we know after a road trip, especially in January, February, and March the effort aspect plays a big factor, then to boot game three was on a back-to-back. Now fast forward, they have a rare THREE rest days and go back on the road to Memphis to face a team struggling mightily on the offensive end. I expect a big defensive performance tonight from the Magic, after getting trounced by the Cavs on January 22nd, giving up 53% from the field and a robust 56% from behind the arc on only 80 shot attempts!
Unders have been a successful trend backing these two teams as of late. With the Magic going under in 4 straight away games, and 7 out of 9 overall. Holding opposing offenses to 100 points or less in 5 of 9. With both teams ranking in the top 10 defensively and ranking 12th and 18th in pace, this is no surprise. As far as the Grizzlies go, losing Morant for the season was a big blow on January 8th, then Marus Smart went down with a finger injury just days later. Finding offense was going to be a problem. The final nail in the coffin was losing profound 3-point shooter Desmond Bane to an ankle injury, to keep him out for a considerable amount of time. In the 6 games without Bane, they have scored 94, 116, 103, 96, 108 and 105 points, with their offensive “high” coming against the Warriors who play virtually zero defense.
Speaking of road trips, the Grizz have played 7/10 away from home including a trip out west and come off of a 4-game road trip of their own. While splitting the 4 affairs, their defense was very good in the last two, holding the Raptors in their own building to 100 points and keeping the Heat in South Beach under 100. Look, backing the under in Grizzlies games has been a profitable play all season. Going under 9 of their last 14, 7 of their last 8 at home and 13 of 18 at home for the season. We will attack this play tonight!
I know this is a low number at 212.5, but FGA’s will prove to be the final kicker for me. The two teams in their last 5 games are averaging 81 and 84 FGAs per game, and defensively are holding opposing offenses to 85 and 81 FGAs per game. This has the looks to be tight defensive game, slower, and lacking possessions. Which is why we are on the under here, albeit a low number, it’s still a small unit upgrade for me.
Under 212.5 (-110) to win 1.25 units
Let’s have fun and make some money. Good luck to US!
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Stanford vs California -2 O/U 150
This should be a good rivalry game to watch after Michigan State vs Wisconsin. Cal is what I call an up and coming team with a good coach that is getting better and better every game that they play. They do not do anything terribly well, but they have buckled down and played some good basketball beating Colorado at home as well as Washington State. This handicap is more about Stanford’s road issues. This team shoots well at home at 59% but when they hit the road, it goes down to 51.5% effective FG%. This Cardinal team has had some stinkers losing to USC away, Arizona State at home and Northern Iowa believe it or not. Cal shoots a 50.4% effective FG at home and I expect them to play well against their rival tonight. Cal is the 3rd unluckiest team on Shot Quality Bets and some of their bad losses earlier in the season would be wins had they played today. It takes time for a team to gel with a new coach like Mark Madsen and I believe the time is now to back these kids. Take Cal.
