We have a HUGE show for you today! Paul Stone @PaulStoneSports is back to break down some huge college football games! First, the guys get into who should have won or at least been there in the awards market. Next, Paul and Kiev talk some college football bowls! Then, the guys get right into the first round of the playoffs with some thoughts, analysis and Free Plays!. After that, the guys give out a few beer bet bangers for long shots. After that, Kiev talks NFL week 16 with some more analysis and plays. Then, we give out our refuse to lose teaser that is 11-4 for the season! Finally, we get into some sharp money movement and recap our plays. Should you have any questions for the podcast, or games that you want us to cap during our shows, please message us at Info@TheOddsBreakers.com. Have a wonderful week!
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Scooter’s Coffee Frisco Bowl: Memphis vs. West Virginia +5 O/U 58.5 Location: Toyota Stadium (Frisco, Texas) Time: 9 p.m. TV Network: ESPN
Memphis’s Motivation: High – This team gets to beat a bigger conference!
West Virginia’s Motivation: Medium Low – The Mountaineers fired coach Neal Brown and I can’t imagine there is much motivation here.
Home: None
Key Guy’s missing:
West Virginia –
WR Traylon Ray (28-426-4)
WR Jaden Bray (hasn’t played since Week 6)
CB Ayden Garnes (original starter but hasn’t played since Week 7)
S Aubrey Burks (original starter but hasn’t played since Week 7)
Top LB Josiah Trotter to transfer
CB TJ Crandall (122 snaps) to transfer
Memphis –
None
Net YPP: Memphis +1.03
Basic Stats:
Key Stats: Memphis has the much better numbers, but West Virginia’s strength of schedule was much higher this year. West Virginia cannot guard the pass ranking 127th in opponent pass EPA while Memphis is 16th is pass attempts.
Coach Bowl ATS:
Western Kentucky: Tyson Helton 3-1
West Virginia: None as Chad Scott will server as intern. 0-0
Verdict: The Mountaineers also have a bunch of guys potentially opting out as coach Neal Brown has been fired. This could be a blowout.
Play: Lean Memphis
Wednesday, Dec. 18
Boca Raton Bowl: Western Kentucky vs. James Madison -7 O/U 52 Location: FAU Stadium (Boca Raton, Florida) Time: 5:30 p.m. TV Network: ESPN
Western Kentucky’s Motivation: Medium High – Tyson Helton is a nice 3-1 ATS in bowl games, but they lost their quarterback to transfer. Lots of transfers for WKU in this portal.
James Madison’s Motivation: Medium High – JMU will want to win, but they had also lost their quarterback Alonza Barnett III to injury.
Home: None
Key Guys Missing:
Western Kentucky:
Injures:
LT Travon Taylor
CB Anthony Johnson Jr.
Western Kentucky Transfer Portal
Starting QB Caden Veltkamp
Starting WR Easton Messer
Starting LB Darius Thomas
Starting DE Deante McCray
Starting NT Dallas Walker
Starting DT Hosea Wheeler
Starting S Demarko Williams
Starting K Lucas Carneiro
DE Marcus Patterson ( 344 snaps)
S Alex Ford (170 snaps)
James Madison:
Starting QB Alzona Bartnett will miss game to injury.
Starting LT Jesse Ramil to transfer
DL Darold DeNgohe (275 snaps) to transfer
WR Max Moss (51 snaps) to transfer
Net YPP: James Madison +1.23
Basic Stats:
Key Stats: Caden Veltkamp will play for Western Kentucky, but does that matter? James Madison will run the ball ranking 30th in rushing success rate to Western Kentucky ranking 118th on defense.
College Bowl ATS:
Western Kentucky: Tyson Helton 3-1
James Madison: Bob Chesney 0-0
Verdict: QB or not, James Madison has much less transfers and I expect them to run all over Western Kentucky.
Play: James Madison -7
Art of Sport LA Bowl: Cal vs. UNLV -1 O/U 48 Location: SoFi Stadium (Inglewood, California) Time: 9 p.m. TV Network: ESPN
Cal’s Motivation: Medium – Cal will want to win this to save embarrassment from lost to UNLV, but they may be without a quarterback.
UNLV’s Motivation: Medium Low – Barry Odem is gone to Purdue and this team had playoff hopes all the way to the Mountain West Championship game, yet nobody has opted out as of yet…
Home: I think Cal may have a 1.5 point advantage even though San Francisco is farther away. Home State and good to make a bowl.
Key Guy’s missing:
Cal:
Starting QB Fernando Mendoza in the portal.
LT Nick Morrow is injured.
Starting WR Nzyiah Hunter (leading receiver)
Interior OL Matthew Wykoff (314 snaps)
UNLV:
None as of yet
Net YPP: UNLV +.67
Basic Stats:
Key Stats: Cal can just not run the ball well ranking 114th in yards per rush. They will have to rely on the back up quarterback Chandler Rogers which is a big issue.
Coach Bowl ATS:
Cal: Justin Wilcox, 1-2
UNLV: Del Alexander, 0-0
Verdict: If Hajj Malik Williams plays this game, UNLV should beat Cal. I think the guys audition for new coach Dan Mullen.
Play: UNLV PK
Thursday Dec. 19
R+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl: Georgia Southern vs. Sam Houston +6 O/U 48.5 Location: Caesars Superdome (New Orleans) Time: 7 p.m. TV Network: ESPN2
Georgia Southern’s Motivation: Low – Clay Helton is only 1-6 ATS in bowl games. I am very concerned that they care about beating a lessor team.
Sam Houston’s Motivation: Medium High – Sam Houston had a very good second season in FBS, yet many in transfer portal.
Home: Slight for Sam Houston at .5 as they are about 350 miles away from New Orleans
Key Guys Missing?
Georgia Southern:
WR DeAndre Buchannon (63 snaps)
Backup QB Dexter Williams
Sam Houston:
They have a ton of guys in the portal, but many say that they will play.
Net YPP: Sam Houston +1.36
Basic Stats:
Key Stats: Georgia Southern’s strength of schedule was much more difficult ranking 77th to 119th for Sam Houston. In sayin that, I could see Sam Houston being able to run the ball some here. The problem is that Sam Houston can’t play catchup well at all, so if they get behind by 7 or more, they could be toast.
