Hawaii hired a great coach in Todd Graham this year. This team has done very well compared to their expectations beating teams like Nevada and Fresno State. Not a lot has changed with this Hawaii team as they still play fast at 76 plays per game and average a modest 26 points per game. Houston on the other hand started out with promise and failed to deliver. They are dead even in points per game at 32 on offense and Defense and the same with yards per play at 5.9. Houston also plays at an above average pace of play under Dana Holgorsen at 75 plays per game and they are also pretty turnover prone at -1 per game which gives other teams good field position. My power ratings have this about a -10 point favorite for Houston but I am more interested in the over. I think both teams can score against each defense. Hawaii also gives up 5.9 yards per play and 29 points per game vs an easy schedule. Taking the over.
Over 59.5 – 2 star premium shared play
December 25th – Christmas Day
The Camellia Bowl
Buffalo vs Marshall -3 O/U 53.5
This game should be called the disappointment bowl. Both of these teams lost their conference championship and both conferences kinda suck at playing football. Marshall is a nice 1.6 yards per play and Buffalo is a 2.5 yards per play. My power ratings has this game Buffalo by only .5 points but I can’t bet Marshall due to Grant Wells having the Yips at quarterback. Wells didn’t even complete a first half pass against UAB except to the defense. He lost confidence and its hard to bet on that. I really want to bet Buffalo here but the coach for Marshall Doc Holiday is 6-1 ATS in bowl games. Gonna watch this one and lean under.
Lean under 53.5
December 26th
Union Home Mortgage Gasparilla Bowl
South Carolina vs UAB -6 O/U 53
The fact that a 2 win team as bad as South Carolina is actually in a bowl game over a team like Army is really sad. UAB is a much more respectable on the other hand is a very solid team who won their conference and is a pretty large favorite over someone on the SEC. Blazers coach Bill Clark should be getting a power 5 job soon enough. Since Muschamp was fired, this team slid farther and farther downhill. In saying all of this, this team was at least in their game vs Ole Miss and won against Auburn. I highly question the motivation for them and don’t think that they care about being embarrassed. On the other hand, the motivation is factored into the line. I have UAB -4 and am wondering where this line will go.
Lean UAB -6
Cure Bowl
Coastal Carolina vs Liberty +7 O/U 59
Both teams have been on a tear and Liberty only as 1 loss from a power 5 team by 1 point.
Starting out with the Power ratings, I have Coastal Carolina 3.5 points better than Liberty. This makes the spread to me a bit high at 6.5
Schedules. Sagarin has Liberty at 140th in the nation with Coastal at 108th but I would argue that maybe Liberty has had just as hard of a path having to battle 3 ACC teams.
Passing favors Coastal Carolina some
On the Ground Liberty has the edge at 5.7 yards per rush to CC’s 5.0.
Total yards per play has Liberty a +1.7 and Coastal a +1.4 but we must remember that Liberty fed off of a lot of horrible teams with 2 FCS teams and Lousiana Monroe and FIU.
Coastal got screwed not getting a New Years 6 or at last a better bowl and I think they have questionable motivation here.
I think there are too many points here and I like Liberty in this spot for sure.
Liberty +7 – 3 star premium and sprinkle
SERVPRO First Responder Bowl
Louisiana vs UTSA +13.5 O/U 57.5 –
This game is interesting because it is hard to gauge Louisiana’s motivation after not getting to play their conference championship and awarded the lovely status of “co-champions.” I would like to think that they will try and I am pretty sure that UTSA will be motivated here. The Roadrunners had some ups and downs this year getting past injuries but second string quarterback Frank Harris finally figured it out. UTSA is great running the ball at 5.23 yards per rush while Louisiana can do both very well. Louisiana has had the harder schedule and has a much better +1.6 yards per play to +.2 for UTSA. My power ratings has this game almost on the spread due to Louisiana’s stiff defense that only allows 20 points per game. I think if UTSA has a chance it will have to be on the ground.
Lean UTSA +13.5 and Lean under 57.5
Lending Tree Bowl
Western Kentucky vs Georgia State -4.5 O/U 51.5 –
During their last 2 games, Western Kentucky finally scored over 35 points in both of them when all year they could barley sometimes get to 20. Not sure if that is a fluke because they played Charlotte and FIU or if they really got better. Georgia State on the other hand is a very good Sun Belt team who beat Georgia Southern and Kept up with Louisiana and Appalachian State. Both of these teams are very good against the run allowing 4.2 or less yards per rush but Georgia State has the better offense. The Panthers has an even yards per play to the Hilltopper’s -.4 My power ratings have Georgia State -3.5 so no play for me but I do lean under.
Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays! We have a wonderful Christmas show part (B) to bring you today with one of the heaviest hitters in sports betting! Wagertalk’s Marco D’Angelo @MarcoInVegas comes on to break down a YUGE NFL card! First, Kiev answers a listener question about key numbers. Then, Kiev talks about College Bowl home field advantages and motivations spots. Which teams could be very motivated? Which teams could mail it in? Next, Marco comes on and the guys discuss why handicapping week 16 and 17 is different than the rest of the regular season. The guys talk about which teams are in their top 5 and which teams could make a run with some value for the Super Bowl. Next, Marco and Kiev break down a bunch of NFL games and give out some plays and some leans. Then, Kiev gives out his REFUSE TO LOSE teaser that is 9-6 for the year. Finally, Kiev gets into sharp line movements for the weekend in both College Football and the NFL.
NFL: Indianapolis vs Pittsburgh – Chicago vs Jacksonville – Miami vs Las Vegas and more!
NCAA: Liberty vs Coastal Carolina – Marshal vs Buffalo and more!
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This has to be the worst bowl in the nation. There are no fans at the game, you are traveling to a cold destination, and it could be freezing with bad weather. In staying that, I do like the matchup. Nevada has obviously had plenty of games against Boise State here and Tulane is certainly in for a temperature change. According to my power ratings, I have Tulane 6.75 points better than Nevada although Tulane has only a +.1 yards per play to Nevada’s 1.1. Tulane has certainly faced stiffer competition so its hard for me to guage YPP too much here. One thing is that it will be a little windy and the ground game will come more into play. Tulane at 5.0 yards per rush and giving up only 3.28 with their stiff D line. Nevada 4.21 yards per rush and giving up 3.8.
I lean Tulane here -3 and lean the under 56
Boca Raton
UCF vs BYU -7 O/U 73.5
This is certainly more of a home game here for UCF and they will certainly have some fans. Central Florida is still that high flying offense with a below average defense and BYU is very solid on both ends and their only loss was playing a bad game at Coastal Carolina. My power ratings have BYU only a 4 point favorite on a neutral field but both teams should be motivated here. BYU has a monstrous +2.9 YPP to UCF’s +.9 but UCF certainly had a harder schedule. I think that BYU is probably going to win this game and they have the much better efficiency numbers but I also know that Central Florida can back door lots of teams so I am not running to the table to lay -6.5. I also know that Boca Raton is only a few hour drive for UCF and some fans.
Lean UCF + 6.5 – Lean Under 73.5
December 23rd
R+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl
Louisiana Tech vs Georgia Southern -6 O/U 49.5
LA tech is a team who lost a ton of guys last year and it took a while for this team to develop and look decent. They finished their conference solid beating UAB and North Texas and then lost bad to TCU. Georgia Southern is that option team that throws the ball once in a while. They are amazing on the ground at 5.4 yards per carry and only giving up 5.25 yards per play on defense. My power ratings have Georgia Southern an 8 point favorite on a neutral field but it is more of a home spot for Louisiana tech and I have to give them a point for that. Another thing that keeps me off Georgia Southern is that Skip Holtz is 8-3 ATS in bowl games which worries me some.
Lean Louisiana Tech at the 6
The Montgomery Bowl
FAU vs Memphis -8 O/U 50.5
Memphis really took a big step back this year and were not even one of the top 3 teams in the conference. FAU on the other hand took aslo a step back as well under Willie Taggert. FAU plays much slower this year and struggled to score much on offense. I have Memphis -13.25 on my power ratings so this is a play. Both of these disappointing teams are about +.1 yards per play but I think that Memphis can get margin and should be able to handle this team.
We have a great show for you today! It’s College Football Bowl season and we have a lot to talk about. First, Kiev recaps the weekend in the NCAA & the NFL. Who disappointed and who exceeded expectations? Then, we get into our College Football power ratings and why teams are where they are. Next, Kiev recaps some college football and gets into some misleading final scores for week 16. Then, we talk about some misleading final scores in the NFL and some more motivational spots. What was real and what was garbage time? Next, Kiev gives out some College Football plays and leans for week the College Bowls! Then, D-Nasty comes on to talk some fantasy football. Who are the key injuries? Who are we picking up on waivers? Who is trending up for next weekend and who will be the biggest turkey? Finally we give out a nasty sleeper to help you win your week!
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This is certainly more of a home game for Appalachian State being 275 miles away compared to well over 1000 miles. I am sure that North Texas is happy to make a bowl game after such a strange year but I think Appalachian state will be motivated here as well. The Kids on both sides will probably party at Myrtle beach so no downgrade there. My power rating has this game App State -23.5 with the 1 point for home field advantage. North Texas plays very fast at 19.7 seconds per play and App State plays a little slower at 27.4 second per play. Sometimes the North Texas can put up some points so I don’t love laying 19.5. What I like much better is the App state team total over 41.5. North Texas plays fast and loses fast. I think App state runs right over them and gets margin for Senior Zac Thomas who might declare for the NFL draft.
App State team total over 43 – 2 star premium shared play
