Below are the Week 8 CFB Projections. Model C cooled off last week at 14-13 but still a very strong 66-37-2 for the CFB season. The 3 Models are Unanimous on 13 games.
Bye Weeks: Baltimore, Indianapolis, Miami and Minnesota
Key Injuries:
Zach Ertz TE – Ankle Injury out 3 to 4 weeks.
Miles Sanders RB – Will miss game Thursday.
Mark Ingram RB – Ankle injury and is week to week.
DeVonte Parker WR – Groin.
Joe Mixon RB – Foot.
Raheem Mostert RB – High Ankle Sprain Out 3 weeks.
Jonnu Smith TE – Minor Ankle and is questionable.
Positive Covid Tests in Carolina so keep an eye open for that in case the game is postponed with the Saints. The Panthers must have gotten it by getting beat by the Bears Offense.
Waiver Wire:
Boston Scott RB – For the Sanders Injury.
Corey Clement RB – If you are desperate.
JK Dobbins RB – Only owned in 55% of ESPN Leagues.
Gus Edwards RB – If you are desperate.
Telvin Coleman RB – For Mostert Injury.
Giovani Bernard RB – For Joe Mixon Injury
Darren Fells TE – With Jordan Akins out for Houston, he received 7 targets, 85 yards and a TD.
Anthony Firsker TE – For the Jonnu Smith Injury. He had 9 targets and a TD too.
Marcus Johnson WR – 8 targets and 108 yards.
Eagles D – vs the Giants.
Week 7 Players Trending up:
Deebo Samuel WR – Had a great game vs LA Rams. He will be used a lot going forward.
Boston Scott RB – vs the Giants horrible D.
Aaron Jones RB – Had a bad game last game but Houston is the worst team against running backs allowing 178 yards per game. Ouch
Christian Kirk WR – against Seattle terrible pass D.
Marvin Jones JR WR – vs the Falcons poor D.
Kareem Hunt RB – vs Cincinnati.
Jarvis Landry WR – vs Cincinnati.
Joshua Kelly RB – vs the terrible Jags D.
Mike Williams WR – vs the Jags
Tee Higgens WR – vs the Browns will get some points.
Week 7 Busts:
Josh Jacobs RB – vs Tampa’s great run D.
Mike Davis RB – vs the Saints run D. Sean Payton knows he has to stop Davis to beat this team.
Kenyon Drake RB – vs Seattle’s run D. Arizona might have to win this one through the air.
Allen Robinson WR – Rams have a good pass D and Ramsey will be on Arob.
Nick Foles QB – I don’t like him vs the Rams either this week.
Nasty Sleeper: Joshua Kelly RB vs the Jags horrible D
We have a great show for you today! We had another amazing weekend in sports betting! 5-3 in the NFL and 7-5 in College Football. First, Kiev recaps the weekend in football. Who disappointed and who exceeded expectations? Next, we get into College Football misleading final scores and motivational spots for week 8. Then, we talk about some misleading final scores in the NFL and some motivational spots. What was real and what was garbage time? Next, Kiev gives out a free College Football play for week 8! Then, D-Nasty comes on to talk some fantasy football. Who are the key injuries? Who are we picking up on waivers? Who is trending up for next weekend and who will bust? Finally we give out a nasty sleeper to help you win your week!
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Cleveland has impressed me a lot so far this year. Probably for the same reasons why I bet them to make the playoffs but one thing that I didn’t see was Pittsburgh being this good. The Steelers are actually playing at a pretty fast pace compared to the old Steelers at 68 plays per game and their defense is extremely solid. The issue with Cleveland is that even though they have the talent, they haven’t shown me that they can not be the Browns of old and actually step up and beat someone. The big thing for me here is the Browns trend at failing at Three Rivers Stadium and Ralph Michaels tweeted out a trend here. This Browns team lost 16 games in a row there and since the year 2000, the Steelers are 34-5-1 series record against the Browns. My power ratings have the Steelers by 6.25 points and my algorithm that I use has the Steelers by 6.33. Gonna take Pittsburgh here and I also kinda like the under 51.
Pittsburgh -3.5 – 3 star premium shared play – Under 51 for 2 stars
Houston vs Tennessee -3 O/U 55
I gave this out to members Monday morning at -2 but I still think it is wrong at -3. Tennessee dominates the stat sheet over Houston. They are more efficient on offense at 14.7 yards per point to Houston’s 16.3 and they are more efficient on defense at 17.1 yards per point to Houston’s 13.8. Tennessee averages 30 points per game to Houston’s 22. The reason that this isn’t a large play for me is that somehow Houston has a 1 yard per play advantage over Tennessee having a much harder schedule and the fact that Tennessee is on a short week. The biggest thing for me in this handicap is opponent rushing yards per game. Houston is second to last allowing 160 rushing yards per game while Tennessee has Derek Henry and has finally gotten healthy at Wide Receiver with AJ Brown. Small play at the -3.
Tennessee -3 – 1.5 star premium shared
Kansas City vs Buffalo +3.5 O/U 57.5
Both of these great teams coming off of their first losses
Buffalo short week
For some reason, Both of these teams are better on the road than at home as far as yards per game.
My power ratings has Kansas City a 3.5 point favorite with the short week adjustment.
My Algorithm that I used has Kansas City winning 26.6 to 24.3 so this is telling me that the under should be played…
Kansas City/Buffalo Under 57.5 – 2 star premium shared play – Lots of people will think these offenses will be firing after both teams lost but what usually happens quarterbacks will have more ambivalence with the ball so they don’t throw those picks. Defenses were embarrassed and step their game up as well.
3-2 in Teaser: Refuse to Lose Teasers – Taking Dallas up to 8 points with the NY Jets to +15.5 at the Fish
We are 1-2 in the Bow to the Gambling Gods Parlay – Virginia Tech -457, Temple -384, UAB -589, Notre Dame -735, Marshall -531, New England Patriots-492, Indianapolis Colts -379 – Pays 2.5-1
Cincinnati has come into the scene as one of the favorites to win the American Athletic Conference but I think that Tulsa might have something to say about that. This Golden Hurricane team upset UCF about 2 weeks back. The fact that they have a bye lessons the let down spot here. Don’t get me wrong, I like Cinci this year as well but it isn’t like they are 5 or 6 points better than Tulsa as this line suggests. Lets look at schedules. The Bearcats rank 85th hardest so far playing an FCS team, Army and USF. Tulsa’s schedule ranks 2nd keeping up with Oklahoma State and beating Central Florida outright. I think this home dog may be barking on Sunday and I have to take them with the even money at 3.
Tulsa +3 – 2 star premium shared play and sprinkle.
BYU vs Houston +5 O/U 62.5 –
We gave this out at -3 but there is still some value at 5. This is the last time that you will see BYU this low of a spread this year except for maybe at Boise State. The Cougars schedule is way too easy this year. This BYU team has 4 games under their belt and is ranked in the AP top 15. Their good wins were vs Navy and Troy. Ok, I would personally call those good wins but its better than what Houston has showed so far with just 1 game under their belts beating a bad Tulane team. The big thing to me on this Handicap, is that there was a correction in the look ahead line here after Houston beat Tulane and BYU only beat UTSA by 7 points at home. BYU was more of a 7 or 8 point favorite here before last week. I think that Houston is a good team and all but they tend to have to air the ball out in order to win rather than pound the ball. That heavy pass style of play plays right into BYUs hands as they completely shut down Troy to 7 points. Troy is a team similar to Houston as they throw the ball more than they run it. I like this to -5.5 points here.
BYU -5 – 2 star premium shared
Ole Miss vs Arkansas +3 O/U 76.5 –
Both of these teams are coming off of an extraordinary weekend. Arkansas was robbed by the officials at the end of the Auburn Game where they clearly recovered a fumble from a bad officiating call and replay said the recovery wasn’t clear. It’s almost like the NCAA is openly admitting that they are massively incompetent. Ole Miss on the other hand went score for score with Alabama and not only covered a huge 24 point spread, they almost won the game outright. It’s hard to imagine them getting up for another offensive run here. Now Lane Kiffen’s Ole Miss team plays fast at 21.7 seconds per play but Arkansas has shown some very solid defense against teams like Auburn, Georgia and don’t forget Mississippi State. They have played the hardest schedule in football so far. Arkansas hasn’t controlled the time of possession well only averaging 25 minutes per game at 70.7 plays per game which is a little below average but the reason this total is so high is because they have been putting up enough points to win and they average 22.2 seconds per play. In my opinion, there are just too many things that can go wrong here to not hit this total of 76.5 points and especially in this spot after last weekend I have to take the under. One thing I will say is that if there is not a lot of points scored in the first half, I will hedge that second half and take the over and see if I can set myself up for a nice middle.
Ole Miss vs Arkansas under 76.5 – 2 star premium shared play
Tune in our Youtube show this Thursday/Friday for your play on Georgia vs Alabama!
