Home Blog Page 13

Podcast 803 – 27 – 26 – NCAA Tournament Weekend Recap & Sweet 16 First Look – Sports Betting

By
Kiev O'Neil
-

 

We have a great show for you today! Kiev O’Neil recaps the first weekend and first two rounds of the NCAA tournament.   We also give out an early Best Bet for the sweet 16!  Should you have any questions for the podcast, or games that you want us to cap during our shows, please message us at Info@TheOddsBreakers.com. Have a wonderful week!   

Make sure you get in our NCAA Tournament SWEET 16 survivor contest for $20 a piece https://app.splashsports.com/contest/c700746f-c01d-4d0c-a749-80e68e7c1454/detail?utm_source=SplashWeb&utm_medium=ManageContest&utm_content=btn_invite&utm_campaign=c700746f-c01d-4d0c-a749-80e68e7c1454&utm_referrer=c4194175-a675-4b8a-ac5b-96277aa9a741

Use Promo Code Basketball26 TO GET $100 OFF EVERY BASKETBALL OR YEARLY PACKAGE or 50% OFF THE FIRST MONTH OF ANY MONTHLY PACKAGE for the rest of the 2026 season! Click here: https://theoddsbreakers.com/premium-plays/ Offer expires December 31st 2026

@FanDuel and @BleavNetwork

Follow our FREE PICKS telegram channel:  https://t.me/TheOddsBreakersFreePicks

Follow Kiev O’Neil’s NEW personal FREE PICKS telegram Channel:  https://t.me/KievONeil

If you want to subscribe to support us and get some very frequent winners please Click Here to become a member of The OddsBreakers and gain access to premium plays BEFORE the line moves!  Or, you can visit theoddsbreakers.com and click shop and pick one of our great handicappers including Kiev O’Neil @OBKiev at only $84 per month on a 1 year subscription!

You could also support us at Patreon.com for only $10 a month to help out and thank us for some free plays as well as get some extra benefits like free merch and plays!

March Madness 2026 NCAA Tournament Sweet 16 Survivor Contest

By
Kiev O'Neil
-

Click Here to join!

Did your survivor get busted? We got you covered for a second chance at cashing!  Ultimate NCAA TOURNAMENT Sweet 16 survivor reboot is back & brought to you by The OddsBreakers! Contest revivals are activated: If all entrants in a Survivor contest are eliminated in the same week, rather than ending the contest with no winner, the contest is revived.

Entrants attempt to select the winner Straight Up for 1 game per day. Entrants that select only winners Straight Up will advance to the next slate. The entrant that makes it the furthest takes home the whole prize. If all remaining entrants are eliminated in the same slate, or multiple entrants survive the final slate, the winner(s) will be determined based on tiebreaker rules.
Check the individual day tabs in your picksheet to view the pick deadline for each day. The deadline appears at the top as “Picks lock” with the date and time.

 

Winner(s) Take All Up To

Up To $437,500.00

JOIN HERE!

About this contest

Entry Fee – $20

Sport –Basketball
Contest Type –Survivor
Multi-Entry – Yes (10)
 
 
Entry Deadline – 3/26 @ 4:10 PM
Pick Deadline – Game start

College Basketball NCAA tournament Sunday Fun-Day Plays

By
Kiev O'Neil
-

Saint John’s vs Kansas +3.5 O/U 144.5

🔥 Game Preview: Kansas vs. St. John’s

Round of 32 – NCAA Tournament Date: Sunday, March 22 Time: 5:15 PM ET Location: Viejas Arena, San Diego TV: CBS

📈 Team Momentum & Recent Form

St. John’s Red Storm (29–6)

  • 20–1 in their last 21 games, including a dominant Big East Tournament run.
  • Blew out Northern Iowa 79–53 in Round 1.
  • Elite at rebounding, interior scoring, and defensive pressure.
  • Rick Pitino has them playing fast, physical, and confident.

Kansas Jayhawks (24–10)

  • Survived Cal Baptist 68–60 in Round 1.
  • Inconsistent season overall, but the talent ceiling is extremely high.
  • Darryn Peterson (potential No. 1 NBA pick) is heating up at the perfect time—28 points in Round 1.

🧩 Key Matchups & Storylines

⭐ Darryn Peterson vs. St. John’s Defense

Peterson is the best player on the floor—explosive, dynamic, and capable of taking over. St. John’s will try to disrupt him with length and physicality, but few teams have succeeded when he’s locked in.

🏀 Rebounding Battle

St. John’s is elite on the boards, but Kansas counters with size:

  • Flory Bidunga
  • Bryson Tiller
  • Paul Mbiya All 6’10″+. This matchup could decide the game.

🎯 Three‑Point Shooting & Free Throws

Kansas shoots the 3 better and is 35th nationally in FT%, a major edge in a physical game. St. John’s perimeter shooting is streaky.

📊 Betting & Odds Snapshot

  • Spread: St. John’s -2.5
  • Moneyline: Kansas +140 / St. John’s -166
  • Total: 142.5

Experts are split:

  • Some models lean St. John’s by a bucket.
  • Others see Kansas’ talent and shooting as the difference.

Prediction:

  • This one is a kind of a no brainer to me.  Both of these teams hit cold streaks quite often on offense.  Saint John’s only ranks 189th in effective FG%.   Kansas is right there ranking 182nd in effective FG%
  • Kansas also struggles rebounding the ball only ranking 225th in offensive rebound percentage.
  • What both teams do well is defend.  Kansas ranks 9th in defensive efficiency while the Johnnies rank 10th.
  • Kansas is 11-23 to the under at 67.7% while Saint John’s is 12-22 which is 64.7%.  Take the under.

Under 144.5 – 2.5 stars

The OddsBreakers •

Pick
Odds
Under +144.5
Over/Under
NCAAB • St. John's Red Storm @ Kansas Jayhawks
-110 on BetMGM
CLOSED • 03/22/2026
Tally (Win %)
1-0-0 (100%)
Money Meter
$9.09
ROI
90.9%
Betslip #1774191405115-a0f4-183

Utah State vs Arizona -11.5 O/U 153.5

🔥 Utah State vs. Arizona — Game Preview

Date: Sunday, March 22 Time: 7:50 PM ET Location: Viejas Arena, San Diego TV: truTV

📈 Team Profiles

🐺 Arizona Wildcats (33–2, No. 1 Seed)

  • Absolutely rolled LIU 92–58 in Round 1.
  • One of the best teams in the country:
    • No. 1 in adjusted defensive efficiency and Top‑5 in offense.
    • 86.3 PPG, shooting 50.3% from the field.
  • Elite size and rebounding:
    • Outrebounded LIU 52–31.
    • Frontcourt features Koa Peat, Toby Awaka, Ivan Kharchenkov, and Motiejus Krivas—all strong rebounders.
  • 10–0 in their last 10 games, winning by an average of 13+ points.

🔵 Utah State Aggies (29–6, No. 9 Seed)

  • Beat Villanova 86–76 behind physical defense and efficient scoring.
  • One of the most efficient offenses in the country:
    • 82+ PPG, 14th nationally in FG%.
  • Guards MJ Collins Jr. and Mason Falslev combine for nearly 34 PPG.
  • Strong defensive metrics: opponents shoot just 42% from the field.
  • 7–3 in their last 10, averaging 77.5 PPG.

🧩 Key Matchups & Storylines

⭐ Arizona’s Size vs. Utah State’s Efficiency

Utah State is efficient, but Arizona’s frontcourt is overwhelming. The Aggies’ top rebounder is a 6’3″ guard, which could be a major problem against Arizona’s elite bigs.

🎯 Three‑Point Battle

  • Utah State hits 8.4 threes per game, slightly above what Arizona typically allows.
  • Arizona doesn’t rely on threes—its attack is built on pace, transition, and interior scoring.

🏀 Tempo & Turnovers

Arizona wants to run, but Utah State’s system is built on discipline and ball movement. Tommy Lloyd emphasized rebounding and ball security as keys to pushing pace.

📊 Betting Snapshot

  • Spread: Arizona -11.5
  • Total: 154.5
  • Moneyline: Utah State +550 / Arizona -800

Arizona has covered big numbers all season, but Utah State’s offense gives them upset‑spoiler potential.

Prediction:

  • It was fun to see the Aggies take out Villanova in the first round, but let’s be real, the Cats shot only three pointers the whole game and did not really attempt to go inside.
  • This different Wildcat team is the must complete team in college basketball with an offense ranking 4th in efficiency and a defense ranking 3rd.  Arizona will be able to score from anywhere on the court against Utah State.
  • The Aggies are not used to playing an offense of this caliber being stuck in the Mountain West.  When they stepped up against South Florida in the non-conference, they were beat 74-61.  VCU and Villanova was their best competition with neither of those teams ranked in the top 30 in Kenpom.
  • Lay the points.

Arizona -11.5 – 2 stars

College Basketball Saturday Super Plays

By
Kiev O'Neil
-

VCU vs Illinois -10.5 O/U 152.5

🏀 VCU vs. Illinois — Game Preview

Round of 32 • NCAA Tournament Date: Saturday, March 21 Time: 6:50 p.m. CT / 7:50 p.m. ET Location: Bon Secours Wellness Arena, Greenville, SC TV: CBS

🔥 Recent Form & Momentum

Illinois Fighting Illini (25–8, 3‑seed)

  • Dominated Penn 105–70 in Round 1, scoring from all levels: 15 threes, 44 paint points, and 16 free throws.
  • One of the nation’s top offenses, ranking near the top in efficiency.
  • Strong on the glass — Big Ten leader in offensive rebounds.
  • Freshman forward David Mirkovic is surging after a 29-point, 17-rebound tournament debut.

VCU Rams (28–7, 11‑seed)

  • Riding high after a 19‑point comeback to upset North Carolina in OT.
  • Dangerous from deep: shot 42% from three in the upset win.
  • Guard Terrence Hill Jr. is red‑hot, scoring 34 points vs UNC.
  • Entering the game 9–1 in their last 10, averaging 76.2 PPG.

🧩 Key Matchups

Illinois Size vs. VCU Activity

  • Illinois features a massive frontcourt with 7‑1 Tomislav Ivišić and 7‑2 Zvonimir Ivišić, creating a major interior mismatch.
  • VCU struggled on the boards vs UNC (-6) and will be challenged again.

VCU’s Perimeter Shooting vs. Illinois’ Defensive Variability

  • Illinois is 6–6 when opponents shoot 36%+ from three.
  • VCU is 26–1 when hitting 32%+ from deep. This is the Rams’ clearest path to an upset.

Star Power

  • Illinois: Keaton Wagler (17.9 PPG), Mirkovic (13.8 PPG, 8.0 RPG).
  • VCU: Terrence Hill Jr. (14.9 PPG), Lazar Djokovic (13.6 PPG, 5.4 RPG).

📊 Statistical Snapshot

Category Illinois VCU
Points per game 85.9 (last 10) 76.2 (last 10)
Offensive rebounds 12.2 per game (Big Ten leader) —
3‑pt makes per game 11.0 Allows 6.8 per game
Field goal % 45.4% 44.3%

🧠 What Each Team Needs to Do

VCU Path to Victory

  • Hit threes early and often.
  • Force Illinois into perimeter‑heavy possessions.
  • Create turnovers and run in transition.
  • Hope Hill Jr. stays scorching hot.

Illinois Path to Victory

  • Pound the paint and dominate the glass.
  • Avoid settling for early threes.
  • Let Mirkovic and the Ivišić brothers wear down VCU’s frontcourt.
  • Maintain defensive focus against VCU’s streaky shooters.

🏀 VCU vs. Illinois — Game Preview

Round of 32 • NCAA Tournament Date: Saturday, March 21 Time: 6:50 p.m. CT / 7:50 p.m. ET Location: Bon Secours Wellness Arena, Greenville, SC TV: CBS

🔥 Recent Form & Momentum

Illinois Fighting Illini (25–8, 3‑seed)

  • Dominated Penn 105–70 in Round 1, scoring from all levels: 15 threes, 44 paint points, and 16 free throws.
  • One of the nation’s top offenses, ranking near the top in efficiency.
  • Strong on the glass — Big Ten leader in offensive rebounds.
  • Freshman forward David Mirkovic is surging after a 29-point, 17-rebound tournament debut.

VCU Rams (28–7, 11‑seed)

  • Riding high after a 19‑point comeback to upset North Carolina in OT.
  • Dangerous from deep: shot 42% from three in the upset win.
  • Guard Terrence Hill Jr. is red‑hot, scoring 34 points vs UNC.
  • Entering the game 9–1 in their last 10, averaging 76.2 PPG.

🧩 Key Matchups

Illinois Size vs. VCU Activity

  • Illinois features a massive frontcourt with 7‑1 Tomislav Ivišić and 7‑2 Zvonimir Ivišić, creating a major interior mismatch.
  • VCU struggled on the boards vs UNC (-6) and will be challenged again.

VCU’s Perimeter Shooting vs. Illinois’ Defensive Variability

  • Illinois is 6–6 when opponents shoot 36%+ from three.
  • VCU is 26–1 when hitting 32%+ from deep. This is the Rams’ clearest path to an upset.

Star Power

  • Illinois: Keaton Wagler (17.9 PPG), Mirkovic (13.8 PPG, 8.0 RPG).
  • VCU: Terrence Hill Jr. (14.9 PPG), Lazar Djokovic (13.6 PPG, 5.4 RPG).

📊 Statistical Snapshot

Category Illinois VCU
Points per game 85.9 (last 10) 76.2 (last 10)
Offensive rebounds 12.2 per game (Big Ten leader) —
3‑pt makes per game 11.0 Allows 6.8 per game
Field goal % 45.4% 44.3%

🧠 What Each Team Needs to Do

VCU Path to Victory

  • Hit threes early and often.
  • Force Illinois into perimeter‑heavy possessions.
  • Create turnovers and run in transition.
  • Hope Hill Jr. stays scorching hot.

Illinois Path to Victory

  • Pound the paint and dominate the glass.
  • Avoid settling for early threes.
  • Let Mirkovic and the Ivišić brothers wear down VCU’s frontcourt.
  • Maintain defensive focus against VCU’s streaky shooters.

Prediction:

  • This is a simple handicap to me.  VCU knows how to run and gun ranking 59th in tempo.  The Illini will do the same when they are in a close game.
  • VCU doesn’t rebound great, but they do get to the free throw line ranking 22nd in Free throws over FG attempts.
  • The Illini will get to 85 points.  They have the best and most efficient offense in basketball, but their defense only ranks 28th in efficiency.
  • VCU ranks 22nd in three point percentage.  I expect their points in the 70s.  I think that this one goes over the total.

Over 152.5 – 2 stars

TCU vs Duke -11.5 O/U 139.5

🏀 TCU vs. Duke — Game Preview

Round of 32 • NCAA Tournament Date: Saturday, March 21 Time: 5:15 p.m. ET Location: Bon Secours Wellness Arena, Greenville, SC TV: CBS

🔥 Recent Form & Momentum

Duke Blue Devils (33–2, 1‑seed)

  • Narrow escape vs Siena, 71–65, after trailing by 13 in the second half.
  • Riding a 12‑game winning streak and dominant overall season.
  • Cameron Boozer posted 22 points, 13 rebounds in Round 1.
  • Injury watch: Patrick Ngongba is questionable with a foot injury.

TCU Horned Frogs (23–11, 9‑seed)

  • Survived Ohio State 66–64 on a late Xavier Edmonds basket.
  • Have won 7 of their last 8 and are playing with confidence.
  • Micah Robinson (18 pts) and David Punch (16 pts, 13 reb) led the way in Round 1.

🧩 Key Matchups

Cameron Boozer vs. TCU’s Frontcourt

  • Boozer is averaging 22.5 points, 10.3 rebounds.
  • TCU counters with Punch, Edmonds, and Robinson, all physical and active rebounders.
  • This matchup likely decides the game’s tone inside.

Tempo & Physicality

  • Duke struggled when Siena slowed the pace and mucked up the rhythm.
  • TCU can hang on the offensive glass and limit Duke’s transition game.

Shooting & Efficiency

  • Duke averages 9 made threes per game, more than TCU typically allows.
  • TCU shoots the three at 33%, so they must find perimeter production to keep pace.

📊 Statistical Snapshot

Category Duke TCU
Record 33–2 23–11
Last 10 games 10–0 8–2
Avg. Points 82.0 77.3
Rebounding +18.8 margin Strong O‑boards (10.3/game)
Spread Duke -11.5 —
O/U 140.5 —

🧠 What Each Team Needs to Do

TCU Path to Victory

  • Slow the tempo and prevent Duke from finding rhythm.
  • Attack the offensive glass for second‑chance points.
  • Get strong scoring from Punch, Robinson, and Edmonds.
  • Hit enough threes to keep Duke honest.

Duke Path to Victory

  • Start faster than vs Siena—avoid early deficits.
  • Dominate the paint through Boozer and (if available) Ngongba.
  • Use perimeter shooting to stretch TCU’s defense.
  • Maintain defensive intensity for 40 minutes.

Prediction:

  • I like getting on teams after they had a bad game.  Saying that Duke had a bad game against Siena is an understatement as they were losing until about 6 minutes left.
  • TCU got by a cold Ohio State teams with a fight.  This Horned Frogs team has been wildly inconsitent this year losing to teams like Utah, Notre Dame, and Colorado by double digits.   The Blue Devils are a great team and they have some serious ballers.   They will have matchup advantages over TCU from deep threes as well as near the rim.  TCU only ranks 200 in effective FG% and 82nd in offensive efficiency.  That is no where near close enough to keep up with Duke.   Duke has the number 1 defense and the number 6 offense in the league.  Lay the points.

Duke -11.5 – 2 stars

NCAA Tournament Free Friday Best Bets – Sports Betting

By
Kiev O'Neil
-

Akron vs Texas Tech -7.5 O/U 155.5

  • This is a simple handicap to me in Tampa Florida.   Texas Tech lost their best player in JT Toppin earlier this year.   It doesn’t always affect them when they are hitting their threes, but Akron has a pretty good three point shot themselves ranking 14th in the nation at 38.5%.
  • Since losing JT Toppin, the Red Raiders have struggled to rebound the ball losing to teams like Arizona State, TCU, and an injured BYU team.
  • I think that we see a lot of points this game, but I also think that Akron has a shot to not only cover this spread, they can win it outright with the 8th best effective FG%.   Take the Zips against an Injured Texas Tech team.

Akron +7.5 – 2.5 stars

Utah State vs Villanova +2 O/U 147

  • This should be a fun game San Diego California.  This is a long way to travel for Villanova all the way from the East coast to play the pride of the Mountain West.
  • The Wildcats have been a decent team under new coach Kevin Willard, but they are in an easier big east this year with no wins against any team ranked 51 or higher on Kenpom.
  • The Wildcats have injury issues with forward Matt Hodge with a torn ACL that greatly affected their game in a loss in their conference tournament against Georgetown.
  • Villanova struggle to get to the free throw line ranking 277th in free throw attempts and 290th in free throw percentage.
  • The Cats also do not defend well ranking 177th in opponent effective FG%
  • The number 30th ranked Aggies have a great offense ranking 28th in efficiency and a solid defense ranking 25th.   They will win the rebounding advantage with Nova’s injury to Hodge.   Take the Aggies.

Utah State -2 – 2.5 stars

Purdue vs Queens +25.5 O/U 163.5

  • This isn’t hard for me.   Purdue has been a bit of a strange team without the big front court.   Yes, their number look good with all of their experience, but this team also struggled to beat Memphis and Oakland earlier this year by 10 points.
  • Until the big 10 tournament, the Boilermakers have lost four out of their last six big 10 games.  When they beat Michigan in the big 10 tournament, I feel that was a lot more about Michigan truly not caring to win this two years in a row.
  • Queens isn’t a good team, and they play terrible defense ranking 322nd in the league in defensive efficiency, but this team does have a solid offense ranking 15th in effective FG%.  I think that if they get into some serious trouble, they can potentially back door Purdue who may have their scrubs in.
  • I also think that this is just more of a fade of a team that won their conference tournament laying a giant number.

Queens +25.5 – 2 stars

Cal Baptist vs Kansas -14.5 O/U 137.5

  • This is a fun game being that it is in San Diego and Cal Baptist is only around 100 miles away.
  • I seriously hope that the whole school shows up for this game to root for the Lancers.
  • I myself was pretty shocked to see Cal Baptist take out Utah valley in a slug of a game, but here we are.
  • This Cal Baptist team, even though close to home, has no chance in scoring against Kansas who ranks 10th in defensive efficiency.
  • The Lancers rank 302nd in offensive efficiency.   They may not score 55 points.
  • Kansas doesn’t have a great offense this year when Peterson sits and that is why the Wildcats only rank 57th themselves.
  • The Jayhawks have went under a lot this year at 66% 11-22, as well as Cal Baptist at 12-21 to the under at 64%.  Massive numbers.
  • Lastly, the Jayhawks perform poorly away from home ranking 348th in road/home splits on Haslametrics.  I like the under a lot here.

Under 137.5 – 2.5 stars

Podcast 802 – 26 – 26 – With Tony George – NCAA Tournament Best Bets Pt 2 – Sports Betting

By
Kiev O'Neil
-
Sports Betting - Tony George
Sports Betting - Tony George - The OddsBreakers

We have a MASSIVE March Madness show part two for you today! Tony George @TGeorgecapper is back to break down more games.  First, Kiev gives his thoughts on every lined game for Friday.  Next, Tony comes on and the guys talk about how messed up X is from hacking.  Then, Tony and Kiev get into the committee and what could have been better.  After that, the boys get into their best bets for the NCAA tournament.  Next, Tony and Kiev talk final four and long shots as well as a beer bet banger that could spend well for the spring and summer.   Should you have any questions for the podcast, or games that you want us to cap during our shows, please message us at Info@TheOddsBreakers.com. Have a wonderful week!   

Make sure you get in our NCAA Tournament survivor contest for $20 a piece https://app.splashsports.com/contest/c700746f-c01d-4d0c-a749-80e68e7c1454/detail?utm_source=SplashWeb&utm_medium=ManageContest&utm_content=btn_invite&utm_campaign=c700746f-c01d-4d0c-a749-80e68e7c1454&utm_referrer=c4194175-a675-4b8a-ac5b-96277aa9a741

Get in our $500 free bracket challenge give away! https://picks.cbssports.com/college-basketball/ncaa-tournament/bracket/pools/kbxw63b2ge2demjygq2di===/join?invited-by=ivxhi4tzhizdcnzzge2tcobu&via-medium=copy&ttag=FF26_cpy_invite_new_mt_bpm&pool-join-key=m5cpc41zwmi01jislq3ge2n90w8676xk&senderRole=mzarnpa8gletrg!  

Use Promo Code Basketball26 TO GET $100 OFF EVERY BASKETBALL OR YEARLY PACKAGE or 50% OFF THE FIRST MONTH OF ANY MONTHLY PACKAGE for the rest of the 2026 season! Click here: https://theoddsbreakers.com/premium-plays/ Offer expires December 31st 2026

@FanDuel and @BleavNetwork

Follow our FREE PICKS telegram channel:  https://t.me/TheOddsBreakersFreePicks

Follow Kiev O’Neil’s NEW personal FREE PICKS telegram Channel:  https://t.me/KievONeil

If you want to subscribe to support us and get some very frequent winners please Click Here to become a member of The OddsBreakers and gain access to premium plays BEFORE the line moves!  Or, you can visit theoddsbreakers.com and click shop and pick one of our great handicappers including Kiev O’Neil @OBKiev at only $84 per month on a 1 year subscription!

You could also support us at Patreon.com for only $10 a month to help out and thank us for some free plays as well as get some extra benefits like free merch and plays!

NCAA Tournament Thirsty Thursday Best Bets – Sports Betting

By
Kiev O'Neil
-

North Dakota State vs Michigan State -16.5 O/U 143.5

🏀 Game Overview

  • Matchup: No. 3 Michigan State (25–7) vs. No. 14 North Dakota State (27–7)

  • Date/Time: Thursday, March 19, 4:05 PM ET

  • Location: KeyBank Center, Buffalo, NY

  • TV: TNT

Both teams enter with contrasting trajectories:

  • Michigan State has dropped its last two games but remains a perennial March threat under Tom Izzo.

  • North Dakota State rides a four‑game winning streak and swept the Summit League regular season and tournament titles.

 

🔍 Key Storylines

Michigan State: Experience + Playmaking

  • Tom Izzo’s 28th straight NCAA Tournament appearance.

  • MSU ranks 5th nationally in assists per game (18.5), driven by Jeremy Fears Jr.

  • Strong frontcourt contributions from Jaxon Kohler, Coen Carr, and Carson Cooper.

North Dakota State: Balance + Rebounding

  • NDSU led the Summit League in scoring margin and is elite on the offensive glass.

  • Four players average double figures, led by Damari Wheeler‑Thomas (14.4 PPG).

  • Shoots 36.5% from three, second in the Summit League.

 

📊 Statistical Snapshot

Category Michigan State North Dakota State
Record 25–7 27–7
Assists per game 18.5 16.0
Field goal % 47.1% 46.4%
3‑pt % allowed 43.8% —
Leading scorer Jeremy Fears Jr. (15.7) Damari Wheeler‑Thomas (14.4)
Last 10 games 6–4 8–2
 

 

 

🧠 Matchup Keys

⭐ Why Michigan State Could Win

  • Superior ball movement and guard play.

  • More size and depth in the frontcourt.

  • Izzo’s teams rarely get out‑toughed in March.

⭐ Why North Dakota State Could Hang Around

  • Excellent offensive rebounding (11.6 per game).

  • Balanced scoring makes them hard to scout.

  • Momentum from winning eight of their last nine.

Prediction:

  • This is a game with a large enough spread for me to get involved here.  Michigan State is a solid team, but way overrated in the market.   
  • Since January 29th, Sparty has been just a meddling team ranking 24th on Bart Torvik.  When they played good to great teams, they pretty much got blown out minus one close win against Purdue.
  • North Dakota State doesn’t do anything spectacular, but this team has only lost two games since December 29th, and I expect them to fight here to keep it within reason.  
  • Sparty has not been a great team away from home ranking 247th in road/home splits on Haslametrics.
  • The Bison keep it close.

North Dakota State +16.5 – 2 stars

Texas A&M vs Saint Mary’s -3 O/U 147.5

🏀 Game Overview

  • Matchup: No. 10 Texas A&M (21–11) vs. No. 7 Saint Mary’s (27–5)

  • Date/Time: Thursday, March 19, 7:35 PM ET

  • Location: Paycom Center, Oklahoma City

  • TV: truTV

 

🔍 Team Profiles

Saint Mary’s Gaels

  • Record: 27–5, 16–2 WCC

  • Identity: Slow pace, elite defense, disciplined half‑court offense.

  • Strengths:

    • No. 1 free‑throw shooting team in the nation (≈80.5%).

    • Top‑40 nationally in defensive efficiency, allowing <65 PPG.

    • Improved 38.6% three‑point shooting, their best in years.

  • Key Player: Paulius Murauskas (18.8 PPG, 48.9% FG).

Texas A&M Aggies

  • Record: 21–11, 11–7 SEC

  • Identity: Pressure defense, pace, and streaky perimeter shooting.

  • Strengths:

    • Second‑most bench points in the entire NCAA Tournament field (18.1 per game).

    • Aggressive perimeter defense and opportunistic transition scoring.

  • Concerns:

    • Undersized frontcourt vs. Saint Mary’s three seven‑footers.

    • Inconsistent shooting stretches (4–7 in last 11 games).

  • Key Players:

    • Ruben Dominguez (40.4% from three).

    • Marcus Hill (49.6% FG).

 

⚔️ Matchup Keys

⭐ How Saint Mary’s Wins

  • Control tempo and force A&M into half‑court sets.

  • Leverage size advantage inside.

  • Win the free‑throw battle late (their biggest edge).

⭐ How Texas A&M Wins

  • Speed the game up with pressure and early‑clock threes.

  • Win the turnover battle (Gaels are 7–2 when they win it).

  • Hot shooting from Dominguez, Griffen, and Hill.

 

📊 Recent Form Comparison

Category Texas A&M Saint Mary’s
Last 10 Games 4–6 8–2
PPG 78.3 77.3
Opponent PPG Allowed 83.6 64.7
FG% 42.0% 45.2%
 

 

Prediction:

  • Who doesn’t love the Aggies new coach in Bucky McMillan.   This cat plays a fun brand of basketball with a press defense, and three points reigning from the air.  The problem that I have with this is that Bucky doesn’t really have the horses to play a great game of basketball against defensive minded teams.
  • Saint Mary’s has played some solid basketball against a better team named Gonzaga who also likes to run the floor, except the Zags play much better defense than the Aggies.
  • From a matchup perspective, neither team has great offensive advantages, but Saint Mary’s will have a big rebounding advantage ranking 4th in rebounding percentage to 185th for the Aggies.   
  • Since February 1st, the Aggies rank 61st on Bart Torvik, while Saint Mary’s ranks 18th.  Take the Gael’s to win by margin.

Saint Mary’s -3 – 2 stars

Penn vs Illinois -24.5 O/U 150.5

🏀 Game Overview

  • Matchup: No. 3 Illinois (24–8) vs. No. 14 Penn (18–11)

  • Date/Time: Thursday, March 19, 9:25 p.m. ET

  • Location: Bon Secours Wellness Arena, Greenville, SC

  • TV:TNT

 

🔍 Team Profiles

Illinois Fighting Illini

  • Strengths:

    • One of the nation’s top offenses (125.5 offensive rating).

    • Extremely disciplined defensively — 3rd nationally in fewest fouls (13.4 per game).

    • Deep, versatile roster with multiple scoring threats (Wagler, Mirkovic, Stojakovic).

  • Concerns:

    • Recent late‑game struggles with multiple overtime losses.

Penn Quakers

  • Strengths:

    • Elite three‑point shooting — 38.6% (15th nationally).

    • Strong ATS (against the spread) team, covering eight straight entering the tournament.

    • Momentum from winning the Ivy League Tournament with back‑to‑back OT wins.

  • Concerns:

    • Injuries/illness:

      • Leading scorer Ethan Roberts (16.9 PPG) likely out with a concussion.

      • Star forward TJ Power (16.8 PPG, 7.9 RPG) battling illness.

    • Limited depth (only ~18 bench points per game).

 

⚔️ Matchup Keys

⭐ What Illinois Needs to Do

  • Push tempo and attack Penn’s thin rotation.

  • Use size advantage inside (Ivisic, Mirkovic).

  • Stay disciplined defensively and avoid giving up open threes.

⭐ What Penn Needs to Do

  • Hit threes at a high volume to compensate for missing scorers.

  • Slow the game down and avoid foul trouble.

  • Hope TJ Power is healthy enough to play major minutes.

 

📊 Statistical Snapshot

Category Illinois Penn
Record 24–8 18–11
Offensive Rating 125.5 108.8
Defensive Rating 103.8 104.8
PPG 84.4 76.1
3‑pt % 34.7% 38.6%
Key Player Keaton Wagler (17.9 PPG)

TJ Power (16.8 PPG)*

 

Prediction:

  • This should actually be a pretty fun game out in South Carolina where a school of smart kids will be facing Illinois.
  • The interesting thing about this matchup is that the old Iowa coach Fran McCaffery has once again made the tournament after his first year of being away from the flat lands of the mid-west.   
  • Fran knows Illinois coach Brad Underwood quite well, but when they used to face off, it was all fireworks with a lot of points.
  • I think that we see points in this game as well.  Penn plays basketball at a fast pace ranking 69th in average possession length.  They shoot the three ball quite well ranking 11th in three point percentage.
  • This year’s Illinois team only ranks 277th in pace, yet they are extremely efficient ranking 3rd in offensive rebounding and 39th in effective FG%.  The Illini tend to run with teams when needed.  I see them putting up almost 90 points.  I would not be shocked to see Penn at least in the mid-60s or more.  

Over 150.5 – 2 stars

Idaho vs Houston -23.5 O/U 136.5

🏀 Game Overview

  • Matchup: No. 2 Houston (28–6) vs. No. 15 Idaho (21–14)

  • Date/Time: Thursday, March 19, 10:10 p.m. ET

  • Location: Paycom Center, Oklahoma City

  • TV: truTV

 

🔍 Team Profiles

Houston Cougars

  • Record: 28–6

  • Identity: Elite defense, physicality, depth.

  • Key Strengths:

    • Allows just ~63 PPG, one of the best defenses in the nation.

    • Top‑10 efficiency metrics and consistent tournament success under Kelvin Sampson.

    • Strong guard play: Kingston Flemings, Milos Uzan, Emanuel Sharp.

Idaho Vandals

  • Record: 21–14

  • Identity: Balanced scoring, heavy three‑point volume.

  • Key Strengths:

    • 10 made threes per game, among the best mid‑majors.

    • Multiple double‑digit scorers: Rasmussen, Brickner, Mitchell.

    • Entering the tournament on a strong late‑season run (Big Sky champions).

 

⚔️ Matchup Keys

⭐ How Houston Wins

  • Use physical defense to disrupt Idaho’s shooters.

  • Win the turnover battle (Houston is 27–2 when committing fewer turnovers).

  • Attack Idaho’s thinner frontcourt and wear them down with depth.

⭐ How Idaho Wins

  • Hit threes early and often — their only realistic path to keeping pace.

  • Slow the game down and avoid getting overwhelmed by Houston’s pressure.

  • Get big scoring nights from Rasmussen and Brickner.

 

📊 Statistical Snapshot

Category Houston Idaho
Record 28–6 21–14
Points Allowed ~62.9 PPG ~72.6 PPG
Points Scored ~77.1 PPG ~78.7 PPG
3‑Pointers Made 6.9 per game allowed 10 per game made
Leading Scorer Kingston Flemings (16.4 PPG)

Jackson Rasmussen (13.8 PPG)

 

Prediction:

  • Let’s face it. Houston is just a big bully who beats on the lower teams and gets beat by the great teams.
  • The Problem with Idaho is that they really do not have the size inside to really compete with Houston’s bigs.  
  • Idaho’s best win was against 133 Kenpom ranked Montana State, and this team lost by over 30 to Sam Houston State earlier this year.  
  • Houston has beaten better teams by more than 20 points like UCF by 24, Colorado by 40, Kansas by 22, Cincinnati by 22 and Arizona State and West Virginia by over 30.   I see a blowout game here.
  • Take the bullies and lay the points.

Houston -23.5 –  2 stars

NCAA Tournament Free $500 bracket challenge AND HUGE Survivor

By
Kiev O'Neil
-

 

Get into our FREE 2026 NCAA tournament challenge to win $500 in prizes!  Brackets come out Sunday!  Click here to get in early!  

Click Here: https://tinyurl.com/ymjsn9rm

 

 

 

Ultimate NCAA TOURNAMENT survivor is back & brought to you by The OddsBreakers! Contest revivals are activated: If all entrants in a Survivor contest are eliminated in the same week, rather than ending the contest with no winner, the contest is revived. The last round of entrants to have been eliminated advance and continue playing. Weeks 7 & 8 are combined (Like most contests do) so that we can pick any 2 of the 4 games in the elite 8!

NCAA Tournament SURVIVOR!

Winner(s) Take All Up To

$411,250.00

JOIN HERE!

About this contest

Entry Fee – $20

Entrants that select only winners Straight Up will advance to the next slate. The entrant that makes it the furthest takes home the whole prize. If all remaining entrants are eliminated in the same slate, they will all be considered winners and will all split the prize.

Check the individual day tabs in your picksheet to view the pick deadline for each day. The deadline appears at the top as “Picks lock” with the date and time.

Sport – Basketball

Contest Type – Survivor

Multi-Entry – Yes (25)

Entry Deadline – 3/19 @ 9:00 AM

Pick Deadline – Game start

Contest settings

Pick objective – Pick Winners

Picks per day – 1

Team use limit – Once

Double pick days – Day 7 + 8 (Round of 8)

Combine Days 7 and 8 – Enabled

Pick Scoring – Straight up

Winning the contest:

The winner shall be the last remaining entry. If all remaining entrants are eliminated in the same day, the contest will conclude and those eliminated entrants will be declared winners and split the prize in equal shares. Eliminations due to not having any remaining teams to select in a day are treated the same as making an incorrect pick. If multiple entrants survive through the final contest day, all surviving entrants will be declared winners and split the prize in equal shares.

Team use limit:

Depending on the limit set by the commissioner, entrants may select a team once at most throughout the contest.

Tiebreakers:

There are no tiebreakers. If multiple entrants are declared winners, they will split the prize in equal shares.

Picking Winners:

Select only winners to advance to the next day. Losses, ties, and missed picks result in elimination from the contest. Running out of teams to pick will also result in elimination from the contest.

Podcast 801 – 25 – 26 – With Matt Youmans – NCAA Tournament Best Bets Pt 1 – Sports Betting

By
Kiev O'Neil
-
The OddsBreakers Sports Betting Podcast
The OddsBreakers All Rights Reserved

We have a MASSIVE March Madness show for you today! Matt Youmans @MattYoumans248 from @VSINLIVE is back to break down some huge NCAA games.  First, Kiev gives his thoughts on every lined game for Thursday.  Next, Matt comes on and the guys talk about Matt’s trip to Thailand.  Apparently, what happens in Thailand stays there even more than Vegas.  Then,, Matt and Kiev get into the committee and what could have been better.  After that, the boys get into their best bets for the NCAA tournament. Next, Matt and Kiev talk final four and long shots as well as a beer bet banger that could spend well for the weekend full of fun.   Should you have any questions for the podcast, or games that you want us to cap during our shows, please message us at Info@TheOddsBreakers.com. Have a wonderful week!   

Make sure you get in our NCAA Tournament survivor contest for $20 a piece https://app.splashsports.com/contest/c700746f-c01d-4d0c-a749-80e68e7c1454/detail?utm_source=SplashWeb&utm_medium=ManageContest&utm_content=btn_invite&utm_campaign=c700746f-c01d-4d0c-a749-80e68e7c1454&utm_referrer=c4194175-a675-4b8a-ac5b-96277aa9a741

Get in our $500 free bracket challenge give away! https://picks.cbssports.com/college-basketball/ncaa-tournament/bracket/pools/kbxw63b2ge2demjygq2di===/join?invited-by=ivxhi4tzhizdcnzzge2tcobu&via-medium=copy&ttag=FF26_cpy_invite_new_mt_bpm&pool-join-key=m5cpc41zwmi01jislq3ge2n90w8676xk&senderRole=mzarnpa8gletrg!  

Use Promo Code Basketball26 TO GET $100 OFF EVERY BASKETBALL OR YEARLY PACKAGE or 50% OFF THE FIRST MONTH OF ANY MONTHLY PACKAGE for the rest of the 2026 season! Click here: https://theoddsbreakers.com/premium-plays/ Offer expires December 31st 2026

@FanDuel and @BleavNetwork

Follow our FREE PICKS telegram channel:  https://t.me/TheOddsBreakersFreePicks

Follow Kiev O’Neil’s NEW personal FREE PICKS telegram Channel:  https://t.me/KievONeil

If you want to subscribe to support us and get some very frequent winners please Click Here to become a member of The OddsBreakers and gain access to premium plays BEFORE the line moves!  Or, you can visit theoddsbreakers.com and click shop and pick one of our great handicappers including Kiev O’Neil @OBKiev at only $84 per month on a 1 year subscription!

You could also support us at Patreon.com for only $10 a month to help out and thank us for some free plays as well as get some extra benefits like free merch and plays!

College Basketball FREE 2026 March Madness NCAA Tournament Bracket Challenge to win $500!

By
Kiev O'Neil
-

Get into our FREE 2026 NCAA tournament challenge to win $500 in prizes!  Brackets come out Sunday!  Click here to get in early!  

Click Here: https://tinyurl.com/ymjsn9rm

 

Once again, we are giving away $500 in prizes to the top 4 finishers in this challenge. All you need to do is wright a 5 star review and take a screen shot and send it to INFO@TheOddsBreakers.com.  If you already have the review then you can just retweet the podcast and send that screen shot in as well. 1st place will be $275, 2nd place will be $125, 3rd place will be $75 and 4th will be $25. Get your brackets in by Thursday March 19th before the 1st game at 12AM Eastern, 9AM Pacific! Best of luck everyone and enjoy the tournament!

1...121314...664Page 13 of 664