Congrats to all Nick Dunlap backers at The American Express last week if there were any. Based on @GolfTipsChecker‘s weekly recap, no one picked him to win. The past two weeks we’ve been so close to an outright with Byeong Hun An losing in a playoff at the Sony Open and Christiaan Bezuidenhout finishing runner-up at The American Express.

We caught Max Homa at 25-1 last year at the Farmers so hopefully, we can do the same this year!

🚨#AMEX Nick Dunlap creates history!! The first amateur to win a PGA Tour event since 1991 – Incredible scenes!!

🏆🥇🇺🇸Dunlap❌

🥈🇿🇦Bez@RH_G0LF@flavin90@GatorBetting

🥉🇺🇸Schauffele@LiamCopeGolf@WKFNate@TheBunkerTips@PilcherDan@fordysgolfpicks@BBirdies2@JerzWayBetting… https://t.co/JPz3hz1pzQ pic.twitter.com/sU1k3rN0Qr

— Golf Tips Checker (@GolfTipsChecker) January 22, 2024

Amateur Nick Dunlap became the first amateur to win a PGA TOUR event since Phil Mickelson at the 1991 Northern Telecom Open. He’s the second-youngest winner on TOUR in the last 90 years. The college sophomore at Alabama is the only player to win the U.S. Junior Amateur, the U.S. Amateur, and a PGA TOUR event as an amateur.

Dunlap committed to this week’s event but withdrew on Monday so he will not be in the field at the Farmers Insurance Open.

Let’s get into this week’s storylines…

Max Homa will look to defend his title at the Farmers Insurance Open. He’s had success in his home state winning four times in California.

Ryan Fox and Adrian Meronk will make their first starts as PGA TOUR members. They both earned their TOUR cards by finishing in the top 10 in the DP World Tour’s Race to Dubai in 2023.

Tournament Information:

• Dates: January 24th, 2024 – January 27th, 2024
• Location: La Jolla, California, United States
• Format: 72-hole stroke play
  • Wednesday – Thursday: 2 Course Rotation
    • Torrey Pines South Course
    • Torrey Pines North Course
  • Friday – Saturday: Torrey Pines South Course
• Purse/ Winner: $9,000,000 /$1,620,000
• FedEx Cup Points: 500
• Field/ Cut: 156 Players | Top 65 and Ties – 36 Holes
• Playoff Format: Sudden Death | 18, 18, 16, 17, 18, 16, 17, 18
• Historic Cut Line:
  • 2023: E
  • 2022: -3
  • 2021: -1

Torrey Pines South Course

• Par: 72 (4x 3’s / 10x 4’s / 4x 5’s)
• Length: 7,765 Yards
• Greens: Poa annua .095”
• Fairways: Ryegrass overseed .425”
• Rough: Ryegrass overseed 4”
• Bunkers: 82
• Water Hazard(s): 1 (In-Play on 1 Holes)
• Average Green Size: 5,000 sq. ft.
• Stimpmeter: 11.5 ft.
• Course Scoring Average:
  • 2023: 73.62 (+1.62), Rank 4 of 49
  • 2022: 72.35 (+0.35), Rank 15 of 50
  • 2021: 73.34 (+1.34), Rank 4 of 51

Comparable Courses & Greens:

Torrey Pines North Course

• Par: 72 (4x 3’s / 10x 4’s / 4x 5’s)
• Length: 7,258 Yards
• Greens: Bentgrass .100”
• Fairways: Ryegrass overseed .425”
• Rough: Ryegrass overseed 4.0”
• Bunkers: 42
• Water Hazard(s): 0 (In-Play on 0 Holes)
• Average Green Size: 6,000 sq. ft.
• Stimpmeter: 10.5 ft.
• Course Scoring Average:
  • 2023: 71.46 (-0.54), Rank 24 of 49
  • 2021: 70.13 (-1.87), Rank 44 of 51
  • 2020: 70.58 (-1.42), Rank 33 of 41

Comparable Courses & Greens:

TV Information:

• Round 1: Wednesday, January 24th, 2024
  • Golf Channel – 3:00 PM – 7:00 PM
• Round 2: Thursday, January 25th, 2024
  • Golf Channel – 3:00 PM – 7:00 PM
• Round 3: Friday, January 26th, 2024
  • Golf Channel – 3:00 PM – 5:00 PM
  • CBS – 5:00 PM – 8:00 PM
• Round 4: Saturday, January 27th, 2024
  • Golf Channel – 2:00 PM – 4:00 PM
  • CBS – 4:00 PM – 8:00 PM

Weather:

• Wednesday: Mostly Cloudy 62 F, 7 mp/h SSW, 79% Humidity, 11% Chance of Rain
• Thursday: Mostly Cloudy 62 F, 6 mp/h SW, 84% Humidity, 17% Chance of Rain
• Friday: Partly Cloudy 66 F, 10 mp/h NNW, 72% Humidity, 7% Chance of Rain
• Saturday: Partly Cloudy 69 F, 9 mp/h NNE, 49% Humidity, 0% Chance of Rain

Torrey Pines is currently experiencing heavy rainfall at the moment. It’s currently projected to continue until Tuesday afternoon. As for the tournament itself, there is no rainfall in the forecast from Wednesday to Saturday. In the past, we’ve seen wind conditions play a factor, especially on the South Course which is more exposed to the coastline. However, given the projected forecast it doesn’t look like it will impact players too much.

Course/ Tournament History:

The Farmers Insurance Open will take place from Wednesday to Saturday. This change was made to avoid competing with the NFL Conference Championship games that will take place on Sunday.

The Farmers Insurance Open originated as the San Diego Open back in 1952. That name would last until 1958 when it was changed to the Shearson Lehman Brothers Andy Williams Open. In 1992 Buick took over the sponsorship of the tournament and the name was changed to the Buick Invitational until 2009. In 2010 the name was switched to the Farmers Insurance Open and has remained that since then.

During the first few years of the event, the tournament bounced around different courses. However, in 1968 the tournament moved to Torrey Pines where it is currently played. The South Course at Torrey Pines has also hosted the U.S. Open twice in 2008 and most recently in 2021.

• Most Wins at Event:
  • 7, Tiger Woods (2013, 2008, 2007, 2006, 2005, 2003, 1999(
• 72-Hole Record:
  • 266, George Burns (1987), Tiger Woods (1999)
• 18-Hole Record (South Course):
  • 62, Tiger Woods (Round 3, 1999)
• 18-Hole Record (North Course):
  • 61, Mark Brooks (Round 2, 1990), Brandt Snedeker (Round 1, 2007)
• 18-Hole Record (North Course – Redesigned):
  • 62, Jon Rahm (Round 1, 2019), Ryan Palmer (Round 2, 2020), Alex Smalley (Round 2, 2022), Adam Schenk (Round 2, 2022)

Course Guide/ Scorecard:

For the second week in a row, we have an event that utilizes multiple courses. All golfers will play one round on the North and South course on Wednesday and Thursday. Anyone who has made the cut after that will then play the final two rounds on the South course.

Torrey Pines South Course

The South Course at Torrey Pines is the longest course on the PGA Tour. Due to its length and complex green designs, it plays as one of the toughest courses. The redesign in 2019 only increased the difficulty of the course with additional bunkers being added. The South course features Poa Annua greens which are notoriously difficult to score on.

The four Par 3’s range from 177 to 227 yards. Last year, all of the Par 3’s had a scoring average over par besides No. 8.

No. 3, 201 yards, Par 3: Overlooking La Jolla, South Course’s signature Par 3, is the most picturesque of all the Par 3’s on the course. Club selection is of utmost importance as the hole can play as short as a 9 iron, and as long as a hybrid. Playing downhill, a good tee shot will leave you middle of the green. Avoid going long here as it will leave you a very difficult pitch to get up and down.

No. 16, 227 yards, Par 3: Two teeing grounds will have a dramatic effect on how this hole is played. The shorter tee, to the left, brings two greenside bunkers into play, but players can aim right and ride the prevailing breeze. The front of the green is open from the longer tee, but the wind can complicate the angle.

There are ten Par 4’s on the South Course at Torrey Pines with the majority of those holes ranging between 450 and 500 yards. In terms of scoring average, the toughest Par 4 on the course last year was No. 12.

No. 4, 490 yards, Par 4: The second longest of the daunting Par 4’s at Torrey Pines, hole #4 requires a good tee shot that will leave you a long iron or fairway metal into a green protected by a bunker on the left. Play approach to the right of the green to allow the contours of the green complex to feed the ball to the middle of the green. A par here is a good score.

No. 12, 505 yards, Par 4: A generous fairway invites players to be aggressive off the tee. Anything less than a well-struck drive won’t allow this green to be reached in two. The ideal position for those who miss the green is short, since the green, which runs some 35 yards deep, is receptive to uphill chip shots.

There are four Par 5s on the course, No. 6, No. 9, No. 13, and No. 18. All of these holes had a scoring average under par in 2023. No. 6 was the easiest hole on the course last year with a scoring average of 0.39 below par.

No. 13, 621 yards, Par 5: A new tee has been added, back and to the left, calling for a drive of at least 240 yards to carry the canyon. Should players choose to go for the green in two, they will need to carry the second shot some 260 yards as the green is elevated and protected by bunkers and rough in front.

No. 18, 570 yards, Par 5: The closing hole is a great par 5 – basically straight but with a twist in the drive zone – on which anything can happen. Just ask Bruce Devlin. In contention for the 1975 Andy Williams San Diego Open, the Australian took six hacks to get his ball out of the water in front of the green on his way to making a 10. The pond is now called “Devlin’s Billabong”.

Featured/ Signature Hole(s): 3

For a hole-by-hole overview of the course, you can click the following link.

Torrey Pines North Course

The North Course is by far the easier course of the two playing roughly 500 yards shorter in terms of distance. There are also no water hazards on the course and has almost half as many bunkers as the South Course. The North Course also features pure bentgrass greens which are different from the South course. This course provides some more opportunities for birdies which players will need to capitalize on to compete this week.

The four Par 3’s range from 202 to 241 yards. Last year, all of the Par 3’s had a scoring average over par.

No. 12, 203 yards, Par 3: Playing downhill and downwind, this Par 3 requires a precise tee shot to carry the canyon. Par is a great score here.

No. 15, 202 yards, Par 3: The signature Par 3 offers players a spectacular view of La Jolla and the Pacific Ocean. Playing downhill this beautiful hole is protected by a bunker in front of a steeply back-to-front sloped green. Avoid going long here.

There are ten Par 4’s on the North Course at Torrey Pines with the majority of those holes ranging between 450 and 500 yards. In terms of scoring average, the toughest Par 4 on the course last year was No. 2.

No. 16, 393 yards, Par 4: Don’t put the cameras away yet! This slight dogleg right uphill Par 4 plays parallel to the Pacific Ocean. A good tee shot will leave you a short iron into an elevated green.

No. 18, 486 yards, Par 4: The closing hole on the North Course is as demanding as it comes. Rated the toughest hole on the course, many a bet will be won and lost on this Par 4! Favor the left side, as a good tee shot will leave you a mid-to-long iron to a two-tiered green.

There are four Par 5s on the course, No. 5, No. 9, No. 10, and No. 17. All of these holes had a scoring average under par in 2023. No. 5 was the easiest hole on the course last year with a scoring average of 0.54 below par.

No. 5, 525 yards, Par 5: This Par 5 is a welcome sight after three long Par 4’s, to open the outward 9. A relatively short Par 5 is a slight dog-leg left. Favor the left side of the fairway on the tee shot. A good tee shot can leave you in the “go zone, “ to hit your approach onto a relatively open green.

No. 17, 520 yards, Par 5: Once a Par 4, this hole was renovated to a Par 5 during its last renovation. Playing downwind a good tee shot on this slight dogleg left Par 5 will need to favor the right side as the left is OB. A good shot will leave either a clear lay-up shot or even better an opportunity to reach a relatively unprotected green in two!

Featured/ Signature Hole(s): 15

For a hole-by-hole overview of the course, you can click the following link.

Key Statistics:

• Strokes Gained: Off the Tee
  • Leaders in this category in the last 36 Rounds:
    • Ludvig Aberg
    • Chun-an Yu
    • Patrick Cantlay
    • Tyler Duncan
    • Doug Ghim

• Strokes Gained: Approach
  • As with most tournaments on TOUR, strokes gained on approach is a major factor. Torrey Pines and Muirfield Village (the Memorial) are the only two courses on tour
    that are longer than 7,500 yards and have greens of 5,000 sq. ft. or smaller.
  • Leaders in this category in the last 36 Rounds:
    • Collin Morikawa
    • Alex Smalley
    • Xander Schauffele
    • Sam Ryder
    • Daniel Berger

• Strokes Gained: Putting (Poa)
  • The green complexes on the South Course at Torrey Pines are Poa annua .095”.
  • Leaders in this category in the last 36 Rounds:
    • Max Homa
    • Maverick McNealy
    • Peter Malnati
    • Justin Suh
    • Rafael Campos

• Driving Distance
  • Torrey Pines’ South Course was the longest on tour last year at 7,765 yards.
  • Leaders in this category in the last 36 Rounds:
    • Chris Gotterup
    • Cameron Champ
    • Min Woo Lee
    • Garrick Higgo
    • Callum Tarren

• Par 3 Scoring: 200-225 Yards (x2 South Course, x3 North Course)
  • Two of the four Par 3’s on the South Course at Torrey Pines range between 200-225 Yards. Three of the four Par 3’s on the North Course at Torrey Pines range between 200-225 Yards.
  • Leaders in this category in the last 36 Rounds:
    • Carson Young
    • Keith Mitchell
    • Austin Eckroat
    • Stewart Cink
    • Hideki Matsuyama

• Par 4 Scoring: 450-500 Yards (x6 South Course, x5 North Course)
  • Six of the ten Par 4’s on the South Course at Torrey Pines range between 450-500 Yards. Five of the ten Par 4’s on the North Course at Torrey Pines range between 450-500 Yards.
  • Leaders in this category in the last 36 Rounds:
    • Xander Schauffele
    • Ryan Fox
    • Sahith Theegala
    • Patrick Cantlay
    • Taylor Pendrith

• Par 5 Scoring: 550-600 Yards (x2 South Course, x1 North Course)
  • Two of the four Par 5’s on the South Course at Torrey Pines range between 500-550 Yards.
  • Leaders in this category in the last 36 Rounds:
    • Lee Hodges
    • Stephan Jaeger
    • Aaron Rai
    • Daniel Berger
    • Collin Morikawa

• Scrambling
  • Torrey Pines is one of the longest courses on Tour and has some of the smallest greens. Last year the greens in regulation average at this event was much lower than the PGA Tour average. The last four winners of this event rank 14th or better in terms of scrambling percentage.
  • Leaders in this category in the last 36 Rounds:
    • Robert MacIntyre
    • Maverick McNealy
    • Peter Malnati
    • Daniel Berger
    • Aaron Baddeley

• Proximity: 250+ Yards
  • Below is the approach shot distribution chart from last year’s event (via DataGolf). Most approach shots come from the 250+ yard range at a volume much higher than the PGA Tour average.

• • Leaders in Proximity from 200+ yards in the last 36 Rounds:
    • Charley Hoffman
    • Adam Svensson
    • Luke List
    • Sahith Theegala
    • Stephan Jaeger

• Comparable Courses and Event History
  • Leaders in this category in the last (Multiple Events Played):
    • Sahith Theegala (2 Events – 69.75 Scoring Average)
    • Collin Morikawa (2 Events – 70.00 Scoring Average)
    • Will Zalatoris (4 Events – 70.17 Scoring Average)
    • Sungjae Im (5 Events – 70.35 Scoring Average)
    • Tony Finau (9 Events – 70.41 Scoring Average)

The Field/ Odds:

There will be 156 players competing in this year’s tournament. Twenty-six of the top sixty players in the Official World Golf Ranking are in the field. Here are the current favorites in this week’s event:

Xander Schauffele (+900) will make his second start of the 2024 PGA Tour season. In his first event, The Sentry, he finished T10 gaining strokes in every category besides putting. This will be his ninth consecutive Farmers Insurance Open. He’s finished inside the top 15 in two of his last three appearances at this event with his best finish coming in 2021 (T2).

Patrick Cantlay (+1000) will make his second start of the 2024 PGA Tour season. In his first event, The Sentry, he finished T12 gaining strokes in every category. This will be his fourth Farmers Insurance Open. In his three previous appearances at this event, he’s missed the cut twice and finished T51.

Max Homa (+1100) will make his second start of the 2024 PGA Tour season. In his first event, The Sentry, he finished T14 gaining strokes in every category besides putting. This will be his eighth Farmers Insurance Open. He won this event last year with his other best finishes coming in 2021 (T18) and 2020 (T9).

Collin Morikawa (+1200) will make his second start of the 2024 PGA Tour season. In his first event, The Sentry, he finished T5 gaining strokes in every category besides putting. This will be his third Farmers Insurance Open. In his two previous appearances at this event, he’s finished T21 (2020) and 3rd (2023).

• Previous Winners in the Field:
  • Max Homa (’23), Luke List (’22), Justin Rose (’19), Jason Day (’18, ’15), Brandt Snedeker (’16, ’12). Scott Stallings (’14)
• Debutants in the Field (Event):
  • Adrian Meronk, Adrien Dumont de Chassart, Akshay Bhatia, Alejandro Tosti, Alexander Bjork, Blaine Hale, Jr., Cameron Sisk, Chan Kim, Chandler Phillips, Christopher Gotterup, Hayden Springer, Jacob Bridgeman, Jimmy Stanger, Joe Highsmith, Kevin Dougherty, Ludvig Aberg, Mac Meissner, Marcus Byrd, Matt Wallace, Matthieu Pavon, Max Greyserman, Min Woo Lee, Nick Dunlap, Nicolai Hojgaard, Parker Coody, Patrick Fishburn, Pierceson Coody, Raul Pereda, Rico Hoey, Robert MacIntyre, Ryan Fox, Ryan McCormick, Ryo Hisatsune, Sami Valimaki, Tom Whitney, Trace Crowe, Victor Perez, Wilson Furr
• Players with San Diego ties in the Field:
  • Charley Hoffman (Poway High School), Michael Kim (Torrey Pines High School), Xander Schauffele (Scripps Ranch/San Diego State), Cameron Sisk (Valhalla High School/El Cajon), J. J. Spaun (San Diego State)

• Notable Withdraws:
  • Tyler McCumber (Undisclosed). Justin Thomas (Undisclosed), Nick Dunlap (Celebrating his victory)

To see the most up-to-date odds, you can click the following link.

To see the full field for this event and how they qualified, you can click the following link.

Facts & Figures:

• 12 of the last 14 winners of the Farmers Insurance Open had a T10 finish or better at the event before winning.
• 8 of the last 10 winners of the Farmers Insurance Open had a T10 finish or better in one of their last five events leading up to the tournament.

Horses for Courses:

Donkeys for Courses:

“Horses for Courses” is a phrase that is widely used and describes the best course/tournament fits. These are the players that have had success at the particular course/event. “Donkeys for Courses” is something I came up with that highlights the players who have struggled at a specific course/tournament.

Previous Winners Scores, Prices, and Strokes Gained (Rank at Tournament):

• 2023: Max Homa (-13)
  • Price: 25-1

• 2022: Luke List (-15)
  • Price: 90-1

• 2021: Patrick Reed (-14)
  • Price: 25-1

• 2020: Marc Leishman (-15)
  • Price: 55-1

• 2019: Justin Rose (-21)
  • Price: 14-1

Previous Winners Incoming Form (Last 5 Starts):

• 2023: Max Homa
  • T3 – Sentry Tournament of Champions (PGA)
  • 17 – Hero World Challenge (PGA)
  • T23 – THE CJ CUP in South Carolina (PGA)
  • T20 – Shriners Children’s Open (PGA)
  • WON – Fortinet Championship (PGA)

• 2022: Luke List
  • T22 – The American Express (PGA)
  • T10 – The RSM Classic (PGA)
  • T11 –  Hewlett Packard Enterprise Houston Open (PGA)
  • MC – World Wide Technology Championship (PGA)
  • T7 – ZOZO Championship (PGA)

• 2021: Patrick Reed
  • MC – The American Express (PGA)
  • T21 – Sentry Tournament of Champions (PGA)
  • T10 – The Masters (MAJ)
  • T14 – ZOZO Championship (PGA)
  • T13 – U.S. Open (MAJ)

• 2020: Marc Leishman
  • T28 – Sony Open in Hawaii (PGA)
  • 69 – ZOZO Championship (PGA)
  • T43 – THE CJ CUP (PGA)
  • 3 – Safeway Open (PGA)
  • WD – A Military Tribute (PGA)

• 2019: Justin Rose
  • T34 – Desert Classic (PGA)
  • 3 – Hero World Challenge (PGA)
  • 3 – WGC-HSBC Champions (PGA)
  • T17 – BNI Indonesian Masters (ASA)
  • WON – Turkish Airlines Open (EUR)

Previous Winners Finishes at Event:

• 2023: Max Homa
  • 2022 – MC
  • 2021 – T18
  • 2020 – T9
  • 2017 – MC
  • 2015 – MC
  • 2014 – MC

• 2022: Luke List
  • 2021 – T10
  • 2020 – T36
  • 2019 – T40
  • 2018 – T12
  • 2017 – MC
  • 2016 – MC
  • 2013 – T68

• 2021: Patrick Reed
  • 2020 – T6
  • 2019 – T13
  • 2018 – T23
  • 2016 – WD
  • 2013 – T39

• 2020: Marc Leishman
  • 2019 – T43
  • 2018 – T8
  • 2017 – T20
  • 2016 – MC
  • 2015 – T27
  • 2014 – T2
  • 2013 – MC
  • 2012 – T52
  • 2011 – T9
  • 2010 – T2
  • 2009 – T26

• 2019: Justin Rose
  • 2018 – T8
  • 2017 – T4
  • 2016 – MC
  • 2015 – MC
  • 2012 – T33
  • 2011 – T25
  • 2010 – T22
  • 2007 – T51
  • 2005 – MC

Picks (Outrights):

• Jason Day (+2500) – BetMGM
  • Risk: 0.32 to win 8.00 Units

• Keegan Bradley (+3000) – BetMGM
  • Risk: 0.27 to win 8.10 Units

• Sahith Theegala (+3300) – BetMGM
  • Risk: 0.25 to win 8.25 Units

• Harris English (+5000) – FanDuel
  • Risk: 0.16 to win 8.00 Units

Total Risk on Outrights: 1.00 Units

Picks (Top 20):

• Sungjae Im (+100) – BetMGM
  • Risk: 1.00 to win 1.00 Units

Total Risk on Top 20s: 1.00 Units

Picks (Top 40):

• Luke List (+100) – BetMGM
  • Risk: 1.00 to win 1.00 Units

• Adam Svensson (+115) – BetMGM
  • Risk: 1.00 to win 1.15 Units

• Taylor Pendrith (+125) – BetMGM
  • Risk: 1.00 to win 1.25 Units

Total Risk on Top 40s: 3.00 Units

As always, all of my placement bets are through BetMGM as they’re one of the only books without dead-heat rules. If you’d like to bet these placements at BetMGM, you can get up to $1500 in Bonus Bets if you don’t win if you’re a first-time user.

Here’s my link to sign up at BetMGM!

Total Risk on the Farmers Insurance Open: 5.00 Units 

Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting. Any feedback whether positive or negative is always encouraged.