Gonna keep this short. Both teams coming off a bad loss, but Ole Miss hasn’t lost yet at home. Ole miss has an advantage ranking 10th in adjusted 3 point percentage on Haslametrics to Florida’s defense at 81st as seen below.
Florida’s best win is Pittsburg or Michigan. Neither in the top 60 on Kenpom. These two teams are not all that far apart and I think that the wrong team is favored. Take Ole Miss here to cover and maybe win outright.
Congrats to all Chris Kirk backers last week at The Sentry! We failed to hit an outright last week but did cash one of our top 20 placements, Eric Cole (+138).
Let’s get into this week’s storylines…
Will Zalatoris will make his first PGA Tour start since the World Golf Championships-Dell Technologies Match Play last March. He has played once following back surgery which was last month at the Hero World Challenge where he finished 20th.
Gary Woodland will make his return to the PGA Tour following brain surgery in September. His last PGA Tour start was at Wyndham Championship in August. He’s played in this event eight times before with four top-20 finishes.
Chris Kirk, winner of last week’s event, is in the field this week as well. He’ll look to come just the sixth folder to win both Hawaii Tour events in one year.
Several notable players will be making their PGA Tour debut this week. Rintaro Nakano, who won the Japan Amateur in 2023, will make his PGA TOUR debut. Adrien Dumont de Chassart, who finished third on the PGA TOUR U last season, has played in a major (U.S. Open ’22) but has not played in a a regular TOUR event.
The Sony Open was inaugurated in 1965 as the Hawaiian Open. It’s been held at Waialae Country Club ever since. It’s also the third oldest host course on the PGA Tour following only Colonial and Pebble Beach.
Waialae Country Club was founded 96 years ago in 1927. The course was originally built by the Territorial Hotel Company as part of a promotional program to encourage travel to Hawaii. Seth Raynor, the architect, incorporated several aspects from other major courses around the world including St. Andrews, North Berwick Golf Club, and the Biarritz Course.
The typical front and back nines are switched this week for the PGA Tour as the “9th” features a picturesque dog-leg creating a more exciting finish. This was done so to utilize the sun’s power setting in the west.
Most Wins at Event:
2, Hubert Green (1978, 1979), Corey Pavin (1986, 1987), Lanny Wadkins (1988, 1991), Ernie Els (2003, 2004), Jimmy Walker (2014, 2015)
72-Hole Record:
253, Justin Thomas (2017)
18-Hole Record:
59, Justin Thomas (Round 1, 2017)
Course Guide/ Scorecard:
Waialae is completely different from what we saw last week at Kapalua. The course is about ~400 yards less and puts more emphasis on accuracy. The players will have shorter wedges into greens this week which is an advantage and something they’ll need to excel at as approach play has been a major key to victory here.
Waialae Country Club is one of the shorter courses on tour and plays roughly 7,044 yards. It’s a Par 70 which means Par 4 Scoring will be placed at a premium this week as Waialae only features two Par 5’s. There are four Par 3’s on the course but all of them play roughly 200 yards or less. Last year, this was one of the easiest events in terms of Par 3 and Par 5 Scoring.
The main defense for the course is the wind but we are expected to have more ideal conditions than last week which means it won’t be a major factor.
The four Par 3’s range from 176 to 204 yards. Last year, Hole No. 4 was the only Par 3 to have a scoring average under par.
No. 7, 176 yards, Par 3: The second of the par-3s on the tournament’s front nine, this green is as wide as the par-3 hole #4 is long. Originally, this green was completely surrounded by sand, giving the hole its name. Bunkers still wrap around the entire front side of this green with a lone bunker on the backside. A deep ridge on the front of the green runs laterally front to back.
No. 17, 194 yards, Par 3: The most scenic hole at Waialae bears the name of the Sony Open fire-bird according to Hawaiian lore. Hole #17 is a very difficult par-3 requiring a long or middle iron. The green features the original Seth Raynor design which is a classic Redan-style green with a large bunker on the left and a series of three deep, hidden bunkers guarding the right. Par-3 is a good score here, especially in the final round.
There are twelve Par 4’s at Waialae with the majority of those holes ranging between 400 and 450 yards. In terms of scoring average, the toughest Par 4 last year was No. 13 (+0.218).
No. 1, 480 yards, Par 4: This hole was originally designed in 1927 by Seth Raynor with the famous Road Hole of St. Andrews, Scotland in mind. The forward tee constructed in 1999 makes this former par-5 hole play as a par-4 and 1/2! Depending on the wind, the second shot to a very shallow green guarded in front by a deep bunker and a bunker surrounding
the right half of the green can be played with anything from a 3-wood to a 9-iron.
No. 16, 417 yards, Par 4: Tee it high and let it fly! A finish with the wind at your back. The best place for the drive is on the right side of the fairway. The second shot is a short iron played to a green framed by the Pacific Ocean and several large palm trees. This hole is considered the signature hole at Waialae
There are only two Par 5’s on the course, No. 9 and No. 18. Both of these holes had a scoring average under par in 2023. No. 9 was the easiest hole on the course last year with a scoring average of 0.67 below par.
No. 9, 506 yards, Par 5: Normally played as hole #18 by Waialae members, this par-5 requires accuracy on both the drive and the second shots. O.B. runs down the left side of the fairway and a red penalty area down the right. A strong left-to-right wind makes this hole even tougher. It is reachable in 2 strokes, however, and has given up its share of birdies.
No. 18, 551 yards, Par 5: “A great finishing hole! Isao Aoki proved this in 1983 with a spectacular eagle for his victory. Aoki knocked it in from 128 yards out, but this hole is reachable in 2 strokes. A bunker set in the dog-leg makes the drive off the tee a “thinking shot.” A second shot can be played straight downwind to the green.
Featured/ Signature Hole(s): 16
For a hole-by-hole overview of the course, you can click the following link.
Key Statistics:
Strokes Gained: Approach
As with most tournaments on TOUR, strokes gained on approach is a major factor. While this course does have some of the largest greens on Tour, it shouldn’t be a straightforward task this week as the wind is predicted to play a factor.
Leaders in this category in the last 36 Rounds:
Lucas Glover
Hideki Matsuyama
Gary Woodland
Mark Hubbard
Alex Smalley
Strokes Gained: Putting (Bermudagrass)
The green complexes at Waialae Country Club are Bermudagrass .120”. If you’re going to win this event you’re going to need to putt well. Since 2016, six of the eight winners were 5th or better in SG: Putting for the week.
Leaders in this category in the last 36 Rounds:
Maverick McNealy
Ben Taylor
Taylor Montgomery
Alexander Noren
Justin Suh
Strokes Gained: Around the Green
Based on the Strokes Gained Stats of the Sony winners, SG: Around the Green has shown to be pivotal. Three of the past four winners at this event ranked 13th or better in this category in the field. The only outlier was Hideki Matsuyama in 2022 who was 22nd in SG: Around the Green.
Leaders in this category in the last 36 Rounds:
Aaron Baddeley
Troy Merritt
Brendon Todd
Alexander Noren
Ludvig Aberg
Driving Accuracy
Waialae Country Club has the 11th largest fairways on the Tour with an average fairway width of 35.0 yards. It also features the 8th largest green size. Based on these two stats, driving accuracy isn’t the first key stat that comes to mind. However, players need to be accurate off the tee since this is a “second shot” course. If they’re able to have short wedges into these greens it should allow them to have more birdie opportunities. This course is also the 5th shortest on Tour so distance won’t matter as much as it did last week at Kapalua.
Par 3 Scoring: 175-200 Yards (x3)
Three of the four Par 3’s range between 175-200 Yards.
Leaders in this category in the last 36 Rounds:
Eric Cole
Luke List
Alex Smalley
Lucas Glover
Michael Kim
Par 4 Scoring: 400-450 Yards (x5)
Five of the Twelve Par 4’s range between 400-450 Yards.
Leaders in this category in the last 36 Rounds:
Russell Henley
Justin Rose
Ryan Moore
Ludvig Aberg
Denny McCarthy
Par 4 Scoring: 450-500 Yards (x5)
Five of the Twelve Par 4’s range between 450-500 Yards.
Leaders in this category in the last 36 Rounds:
Ludvig Aberg
Sahith Theegala
Tyrrell Hatton
Denny McCarthy
Martin Laird
Par 5 Scoring: 500-550 Yards (x2)
Both of the Par 5’s range between 500 – 550 Yards.
Leaders in this category in the last 36 Rounds:
Davis Thompson
Jhonattan Vegas
Matthias Schmid
Michal Kim
Chun-an Yu
Proximity: 150-175 Yards
Below is the approach shot distribution chart from last year’s event (via DataGolf). Most approach shots come from the 150-175 yard range at a volume much higher than the PGA Tour average.
Leaders in this category in the last 36 Rounds:
Taylor Pendrith
Ben Martin
Brandon Wu
Chris Krik
Lucas Glover
Birdies or Better Gained
Four of the last five previous winning scores at this event have been -20 or lower. Players will need to take advantage of every scoring opportunity if they want to have a chance at winning.
Leaders in this category in the last 36 Rounds:
Eric Cole
Ludvig Aberg
J. T. Poston
Luke List
Will Zalatoris
Comparable Courses and Event History
The Sony Open in Hawaii has been played at Waialae Country Club since its inception so we have plenty of course history to go off. Seventeen of the eighteen previous winners played in this event before winning. Past performance is key this week as Waialae is the second most predictive course on the Tour only behind Augusta National.
The Field/ Odds:
There will be 144 players competing in this year’s tournament. Fifteen of the top forty players in the Official World Golf Ranking are in the field. This is one of the strongest fields we have seen at this event. 36 of the 59 players from last week’s tournament (The Sentry) will take the short flight and compete in this week’s event. This is also the first event of the year that will have a “cut” after 36 holes (shoutout Full Swing). Here are the current favorites in this week’s event:
Ludvig Aberg (+1200) finished T47 at The Sentry last week. It was the first time he lost strokes off the tee since he played in the 2021 RSM Classic. He’ll be making his tournament debut this week.
Tyrrell Hatton (+1600) started off the 2024 season with a good performance at The Sentry finishing T14. In in last five starts, including three on the DP World Tour, Hatton has finished inside the top-15 in four of those events. He’ll be making his tournament debut this week.
Matt Fitzpatrick (+1600) will be making his tournament debut this week. He finished T14 at The Sentry last week with the lone issue being his approach game. He gained strokes in every other category besides that one.
Russell Henley (+2200) finished T52 at The Sentry last week. Before that, he had finished inside the top 15 in each of his last five events. Henley won the Sony Open in Hawaii back in 2013 and finished runner-up in 2022.
Brian Harman (+2500) started the 2024 season off strong with a T5 finish at The Sentry last week. This will be his thirteenth appearance at Waialae Country Club. He had a solid run here from 2015-2018 finishing inside the top 20 in each of those four starts. Since then, he has yet to finish inside the top 30 here in his last five appearances.
Previous Winners in the Field:
Si Woo Kim (’23), Hideki Matsuyama (’22), Matt Kuchar (’19), Patton Kizzire (’18), Russell Henley (’13), Ryan Palmer (’10), Zach Johnson (’09)
Debutants in the Field:
Adrien Dumont de Chassart, Aguri Iwasaki, Akshay Bhatia, Alejandro Tosti, Alexander Bjork, Christopher Gotterup, Garrick Higgo, Hunter Larson, Jacob Bridgeman, Jake Knapp, Jimmy Stanger, Joe Highsmith, Kensei Hirata, Kevin Dougherty, Ludvig Aberg, Mac Meissner, Matt Wallace, Matthew Fitzpatrick, Matthieu Pavon, Max Greyserman, Norman Xiong, Parker Coody, Patrick Fishburn, Phillips Chandler, Pierceson Coody, Rintaro Nakano, Robert MacIntyre, Ryo Hisatsune, Sami Valimaki, Tom Whitney, Tyrrell Hatton, Will Zalatoris, Wilson Furr
Notable Withdraws:
None
To see the most up-to-date odds, you can click the following link.
To see the full field for this event and how they qualified, you can click the following link.
Facts & Figures:
Eight of the last ten winners had played at Kapalua in the Sentry Tournament of Champions the week prior.
Each of the last ten winners had a T13 finish or better in one of their five prior events.
Horses for Courses:
Sony Open in Hawaii
Sony Open in Hawaii
Sony Open in Hawaii
Sony Open in Hawaii
Sony Open in Hawaii
Waialae Country Club
Waialae Country Club
Waialae Country Club
Waialae Country Club
Waialae Country Club
2023
2022
2021
2020
2019
Hayden Buckley
2
T12
–
–
–
Maverick McNealy
T7
T27
–
–
–
Corey Conners
T12
11
–
T12
T3
Russell Henley
T32
2
T11
MC
66
Webb Simpson
MC
T61
T4
3
–
Matt Kuchar
T7
T7
MC
MC
1
Hideki Matsuyama
T48
1
T19
T12
T51
Kevin Kisner
–
T3
T32
T4
T69
Ryan Palmer
T32
T12
T41
T4
–
Nick Taylor
T7
–
T11
T32
MC
Donkeys for Courses:
“Horses for Courses” is a phrase that is widely used and describes the best course/tournament fits. These are the players that have had success at the particular course/event. “Donkeys for Courses” is something I came up with that highlights the players who have struggled at a specific course/tournament.
Sony Open in Hawaii
Sony Open in Hawaii
Sony Open in Hawaii
Sony Open in Hawaii
Sony Open in Hawaii
Waialae Country Club
Waialae Country Club
Waialae Country Club
Waialae Country Club
Waialae Country Club
2023
2022
2021
2020
2019
Takumi Kanaya
–
MC
MC
–
MC
Alex Smalley
MC
MC
–
–
–
Brandon Wu
MC
MC
–
–
–
Mark Hubbard
MC
MC
T32
MC
–
Troy Merritt
T65
–
T56
MC
MC
Luke List
–
–
MC
MC
–
Ryan Moore
MC
MC
–
–
–
Tyler Duncan
MC
MC
–
MC
T57
Doug Ghim
–
–
MC
MC
–
Tyler McCumber
–
–
MC
MC
–
Previous Winners Scores & Prices:
2023: Si Woo Kim (-18)
Price: 45-1
2022: Hideki Matsuyama (-23)
Price: 20-1
2021: Kevin Na (-21)
Price: 80-1
2020: Cameron Smith (-11)
Price: 55-1
2019: Matt Kuchar (-22)
Price: 40-1
Previous Winners Incoming Form (Last 5 Starts):
2023: Si Woo Kim
T35 – Cadence Bank Houston Open (PGA)
T52 – THE CJ CUP in South Carolina (PGA)
T45 – ZOZO CHAMPIONSHIP (PGA)
T8 – Shriners Children’s Open (PGA)
T5 – The 38th Shinhan Donghae Open (ASA)
2022: Hideki Matsuyama
T13 – Sentry Tournament of Champions (PGA)
WON – ZOZO CHAMPIONSHIP (PGA)
T59 – THE CJ CUP (PGA)
T67 – Shriners Children’s Open (PGA)
T6 – Fortinent Championship (PGA)
2021: Kevin Na
T38 – Sentry Tournament of Champions (PGA)
T13 – The Masters (MAJ)
T28 – ZOZO CHAMPIONSHIP (PGA)
T45 – THE CJ CUP (PGA)
T43 – Shriners Hospital for Children Open (PGA)
2020: Cameron Smith
T10 – Australian PGA Championship (EUR)
T60 – WGC-HSBC Champions (PGA)
T3 – THE CJ CUP (PGA)
T13 – Shriners Hospital for Children Open (PGA)
MC – Sanderson Farms Championship (PGA)
2019: Matt Kuchar
T19 – Sentry Tournament of Champions (PGA)
WON – Mayakoba Golf Classic (PGA)
T57 – Shriners Hospital for Children Open (PGA)
T23 – Emirates Australian Open (ANZ)
T30 – Alfred Dunhill Links Championship (EUR)
Previous Winners Finishes at Event:
2023: Si Woo Kim
2022 – T55
2021 – T25
2019 – MC
2018 – T58
2017 – 4
2022: Hideki Matsuyama
2021 – T19
2020 – T12
2019 – T51
2017 – T27
2015 – T78
2013 – MC
2012 – MC
2011 – MC
2021: Kevin Na
2018 – MC
2017 – T36
2016 – T28
2015 – T64
2014 – T8
2013 – MC
2012 – MC
2011 – T20
2010 – T52
2009 – T5
2008 – T4
2005 – MC
2004 – T41
2020: Cameron Smith
2019 – T22
2018 – T18
2017 – T27
2016 – T81
2019: Matt Kuchar
2016 – T13
2015 – T3
2014 – T8
2013 – T5
2011 – T5
2010 – MC
2009 – MC
2008 – 65
2007 – MC
2004 – MC
Picks (Outrights):
Corey Conners (+2800) – BetMGM
Risk: 0.29 to win 8.12 Units
Sahith Theegala (+3300) – FanDuel
Risk: 0.25 to win 8.25 Units
Byeong Hun An (+3500) – Caesars
Risk: 0.23 to win 8.05 Units
Adam Svensson (+5000) – BetMGM
Risk: 0.16 to win 8.00 Units
Andrew Putnam (+5000) – BetMGM
Risk: 0.16 to win 8.00 Units
Total Risk on Outrights: 1.09 Units
Picks (Top 20):
Eric Cole (+150) – BetMGM
Risk: 1.00 to win 1.50 Units
J.T. Poston (+150) – BetMGM
Risk: 1.00 to win 1.50 Units
Total Risk on Top 20s: 2.00 Units
Picks (Top 40):
Nico Echavarria (+225) – BetMGM
Risk: 1.00 to win 2.25 Units
Total Risk on Top 40s: 1.00 Units
As always, all of my placement bets are through BetMGM as they’re one of the only books without dead-heat rules. If you’d like to bet these placements at BetMGM, you can get up to $1500 in Bonus Bets if you don’t win if you’re a first-time user.
Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting. Any feedback whether positive or negative is always encouraged.
We have ten games taking place across the NHL tonight. I’ll break down some sides/totals along with a few player props to take a look at.
Sides/ Totals:
Los Angeles Kings/ Tampa Bay Lightning Over 6.0 (-120) – Caesars
Player Props:
Tage Thompson over 3.5 Shots on Goal (+120) – BetMGM
Thompson has gone over this number in four of his last five games. During that span, he’s averaging 4.0 shots on goal and 6.4 shot attempts per game. He’s also gone over this number in each of his last three games at home.
Seattle currently ranks 10th in shots on goal allowed per game averaging 29.62. On the road, that number jumps to 31.26. In their last ten games, they’ve given up an average of 32.30 SA/GP. They’ve also given up the 5th most shots on goal per game to Centers in their last ten games.
Against Seattle, Thompson has recorded more than 3.5 shots on goal in two of his last three matchups.
If you’d like to bet this prop at BetMGM as they have the best odds, you can get up to $1500 in Bonus Bets if you don’t win if you’re a first-time user.
Nikolaj Ehlers over 3.5 Shots on Goal (+100) – BetMGM
Ehlers has gone over this number in four of his last five games. During that span, he’s averaging 4.0 shots on goal and 7.2 shot attempts per game. He’s also gone over this number in each of his last four games at home.
Columbus currently ranks 30th in shots on goal allowed per game averaging 34.39. On the road, that number jumps slightly to 34.67. On the year given up the 7th most shots on goal per game to Left Wingers.
Against Columbus, Ehlers has recorded more than 3.5 shots on goal in two of his last three matchups.
If you’d like to bet this prop at BetMGM as they have the best odds, you can get up to $1500 in Bonus Bets if you don’t win if you’re a first-time user.
Evander Kane over 2.5 Shots on Goal (-135) – DraftKings
Kane has gone over this number in four of his last five games. During that span, he’s averaging 3.2 shots on goal and 4.6 shot attempts per game. He’s also gone over this number in each of his last four games on the road.
Chicago currently ranks 28th in shots on goal allowed per game averaging 33.08. At home, that number drops slightly to 33.00. In their last ten games, they’ve given up an average of 35.10 SA/GP. They’ve also given up the most shots on goal per game to Left Wingers in their last ten games.
Against Chicago, Kane has recorded more than 2.5 shots on goal in four of his last five matchups.
Cole Perfetti over 0.5 Points (-120) – DraftKings
Perfetti has gone over this number in four of his last five games. During that span, he has two goals and two assists. He’s also gone over this number in four of his last five games at home.
Winnipeg currently ranks 9th in goals for per game averaging 3.38. At home, that number jumps to 3.50.
Columbus currently ranks 30th in goals allowed per game averaging 3.63. On the road, that number jumps to 3.83. In their last ten games, they’ve given up an average of 3.90 GA/GP.
Against Columbus, Perfetti has recorded more than 0.5 points in one of his last two matchups.
Vladislav Namestnikov over 0.5 Points (+105) – BetMGM
Namestnikov has gone over this number in four of his last five games. During that span, he has two goals and five assists. He’s also gone over this number in three of his last five games at home.
Winnipeg currently ranks 9th in goals for per game averaging 3.38. At home, that number jumps to 3.50.
Columbus currently ranks 30th in goals allowed per game averaging 3.63. On the road, that number jumps to 3.83. In their last ten games, they’ve given up an average of 3.90 GA/GP.
Against Columbus, Namestnikov has recorded more than 0.5 points in each of his last five matchups.
If you’d like to bet this prop at BetMGM as they have the best odds, you can get up to $1500 in Bonus Bets if you don’t win if you’re a first-time user.
College Football Final National Invitational Game: Washington vs Michigan -5 O/U 55.5 Location: NRG Stadium, Houston, Texas Time: 7:30 p.m. TV Channel: ESPN
Motivation will be high for both teams.
Home: None
Net YPP: Michigan +.22
Basic Stats:
Both teams
Yard /Play
Yard per Rush
QBR
Michigan Offense
6.11 (45)
4.25 (72)
168.62 (5)
Washington Defense
5.66 (68)
4.4 (86)
122.87 (32)
Washington Offense
7.25 (5)
4.42 (55)
164.96 (11)
Michigan Defense
4.29 (4)
3.03 (7)
101.52 (3)
Key Stats: Michigan has a solid rushing offense with two stud backs in Blake Corum and Donavan Edwards. Washington ranks 129th in opponent rushing success rate.
Coach Bowl ATS:
Jim Harbaugh: 4-6
Kalen DeBoer, Washington: 1-0
Verdict: This is going to be a fun national championship. Do I think someone is betting blown out here? I do not think that, but I do also think that Michigan should be able to put up a large amount of points weather Washington does or not. Washington’s defense played a bend not break style against Texas that worked thanks to having the lead. Will they have the lead in this game? I am not quite so sure. I do know that Washington ranks number 4 in offensive success rate ranking top 10 in both the run and the pass, but they are finally playing a very very good defense that could cause them some issues. Michigan’s defense was the unit that came up big in their game vs Alabama. They held Jalen Milroe to less than 120 passing yards and a QBR of 45.1. Michigan ranks number 7 in opponent yards per rush and number 2 in opponent red zone success rate. I am concerned some that Washington will have to use their punter while I am not so sure the same will happen with the Wolverines. Washington’s defense ranks very poor against the run, and if Michigan has the lead, I could see the clock being drained while the Wolverines have continued success pounding the ball down the field. At the same time, I have been very impressed with Michael Penix’s passing game and coach Kalen Deboer’s amazing play calling. I could see Washington back dooring this 5 point spread. I have Michigan -4 as the correct number for the spread, but I also see the upside here for the game for Michigan and I do not think that this team falters.
Play: Michigan ML -205 – 3 stars
Prop: Donavan Edwards over 30.5 rushing yards – 1 star
We have a great show for you today! First, Kiev recaps the weekend in college basketball and NFL football with some reactions and some thoughts. Next, Kiev talks about the good the bad and the ugly in sports from last weekend. After that, we get into some NFL football misleading final scores as well as a Free Play for NFL Wildcard Weekend and the CFB National Championship. Should you have any questions for the podcast, or games that you want us to cap during our shows, please message us at Info@TheOddsBreakers.com. Have a wonderful week!
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Once again the Green Bay Packers are at a win and get in scenario just like last year. What could go wrong? Well, some say this game is big for the Packers, but I might argue that this game is actually bigger for the Bears future of Justin Fields. When you become a bear you have literally two jobs. Make the playoffs and beat the Packers. Let’s take a look at these teams. From a full season perspective, the Packers rank a nice 7th in offensive EPA to the Bears at 21st, while on defense the Bears rank 14th in EPA to the Packers at 24th. This is close to a push with a slight favorite to the Packers.
What have you done for me lately? Since week 10, the Packers rank a massive 2nd in offensive EPA but the Bears are a surprising 17th. On the other side of the ball the Packers rank 25th in defensive EPA while the Bears rank a massive number one! This certainly shows an advantage for the Bears. Both of these teams have some injuries. Christian Watson is questionable with a hamstring while the Bears best corner in Jaylon Johnson is doubtful. I think that this game will be up to the quarterbacks and the pass rush. Right now, the Packers pass rusher Preston Smith is questionable and may play banged up. The Bears have Montez Sweat and DeMarcus Walker both healthy while they lost Yannick Ngakoue earlier in the season. I like Justin Field’s rushing ability here more than Jordan Love’s. I think that Fields may be the better quarterback than Love and Green Bay will experience Deja Vu this Sunday. This Bears team is much different than they were week one than they are today at week 18. Spoilers ready.
Bears +3 – 2 stars
Bonus Play: Austin Eckler 1st TD scorer +500 – .5 stars. He has incentives to break today.
Teaser: Jets to +8.5 with the Broncos to +9 – 3 stars – Both teams will fight their last meaningless game vs opponents who also have meaningless games.
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146-123-6 up 11 units in 2023 MLB!
63% for 2022/2023 NBA sides and totals! 22-13 up 6.5 units. 14% ROI
55% All Time NFL Sides, Teasers, Parlays, Props and Totals! 5.21% ROI
56% 2022/2023 NFL Season 136-109-11 in Sides/Totals/Teasers/Season props up 38.5U
55% All Time College Football Sides, Teasers, Parlays, Props and Totals! 4.75% ROI
63% FOR 2022 COLLEGE BOWL SEASON UP 27 UNITS!
54% Lifetime All Plays in College Basketball – 3% ROI
38% Lifetime UFC On All Plays 3% ROI
62% 2022 March Madness College Basketball Plays at 30% ROI!!!
Auburn vs Arkansas +2.5 O/U 157.5
Normally I do not look to fade home dogs on big Saturdays, but this is a spot where I see some value. Auburn has been a force this year ranking number 10 on Kenpom. They play some amazing defense ranking 18th in efficiency with a great offense ranking 16th in overall efficiency and 57th effective FG%. Arkansas on the other hand has a pretty good offense ranking 51st in efficiency, but their defense certainly has let them down with losses to Oklahoma, North Carolina, Memphis and at home to UNC Greensboro. Now according to Kenpom, Bart Torvik, and Haslametrics, Auburn should win this game by at least five points. The disparity is eleven for Haslametrics. One of the biggest factors for this game in my opinion is the revenge spot. Last year, Arkansas took Auburn out of the SEC tournament in their very first game. Auburn has plenty of upper classman who will remember this. We have to like the fact that Auburn ranks 28th in offensive rebounds to Arkansas ranking 219th. Rebounding is a big factor in big games. The numbers just do not add up here and I am going to take the Tigers for the win.
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146-123-6 up 11 units in 2023 MLB!
63% for 2022/2023 NBA sides and totals! 22-13 up 6.5 units. 14% ROI
55% All Time NFL Sides, Teasers, Parlays, Props and Totals! 5.21% ROI
56% 2022/2023 NFL Season 136-109-11 in Sides/Totals/Teasers/Season props up 38.5U
55% All Time College Football Sides, Teasers, Parlays, Props and Totals! 4.75% ROI
63% FOR 2022 COLLEGE BOWL SEASON UP 27 UNITS!
54% Lifetime All Plays in College Basketball – 3% ROI
38% Lifetime UFC On All Plays 3% ROI
62% 2022 March Madness College Basketball Plays at 30% ROI!!!
UCONN vs Butler +5 O/U 144
This should be a great game to watch tonight as the 2023 college basketball champions head to Indianapolis to play the Butler Bulldogs. Now Butler has has their struggles away from home only shooting 49.3% effective FG, but they at least shoot 55.7% at home. UCONN on the other hand has the same issues. They are an amazing home team, yet on the road only shoot a 53% effective FG. The bigger issue is that UCONN’s best player in 7/2 Center Donovan Clingan is injured which puts the huskies at a disadvantage down low. Clingan averaged 13.9 points per game with 6.3 rebounds.
Dan Hurley reports that Donovan Clingan is coming along well, getting in "really good shape."
Another issue that could pop up is that a cold/flu bug may be running through the team and we do not know exactly what that may mean at tip-off. Gonna take the Bulldogs here to cover in what I feel will be a close game.
We have a great show for you today! Erik Haslam from @Haslametrics is back to break down a big weekend of college basketball! First, Kiev gets into the final bowl game and some plays that he might be making in it. Next, Kiev talks about the full slate of NFL games with some plays and some leans. After that, Kiev gives out his refuse to lose teaser that is 11-6 for the season. Then, Erik comes on and the guys get right into his wonderful site at halsametics while talking about the ins and outs of rating these teams properly and from an efficiency standpoint. Finally, we get into some College basketball games for the weakened with a play that Kiev may be making. Should you have any questions for the podcast for Monday, or games that you want us to cap during our shows, please message us at Info@TheOddsBreakers.com. Have a wonderful weekend!
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