Jamal Murray, DEN over 32.5 Pts+ Reb+ Asts (-120) BetMGM
Murray has gone over this number in each of the last three matchups against GSW.
In his last 5/6 games, Jamal has gone over this line. Along with 3/5 away.
The Nuggets are starting to find their stride, and need to keep pace if they want to lock in the number one seed come playoff time. I look for them to hit the last stretch before the All star break hard.
Best of luck to everyone! Fanduel always has their TNT no risk promotion, so parlay these together at your own risk as you can find these lines on there as well. As always, feel free to follow me on Twitter (X) @MileHighScore. If you are wanting an app that not only tracks your bets, but allows you to shop for the best lines on the books you use download Betstamp and use code JOHNNYG at sign up! It truly makes a difference. Why bet it at -140, when a book out there has it at +110! Have a great day everyone!
The 2024 PGA Tour season kicks off with The Sentry, formerly known as the Sentry Tournament of Champions. This invite-only event is reserved for players who have won a tournament on Tour since the previous year’s edition and the top 50 finishers in the FedExCup.
This year’s field features 59 players including Twenty-one of the top 25 players in the Official World Golf Ranking. This is the largest field this event has ever seen as it’s been expanded from last year’s event (39).
It is the first Signature Event of the year and marks the start of Opening Drive, a two-week kick-off to the season. The TOUR’s two Hawaii events, The Sentry and next week’s Sony Open in Hawaii, represent the starting point for most players’ seasons and highlight the cadence of Signature and Full-Field events that will define the 2024 season.
Let’s get into this week’s storylines…
Viktor Hovland, the winner of the FedEx Cup last season, returns to action after finishing 10th in the Hero World Challenge. This will be his fourth appearance in this event with his best finish coming last year (T18).
Rickie Fowler will make his fifth appearance at Kapalua and first since 2020. He has some impressive course history finishing T6 or better in his four previous starts at this event. Fowler has played twice since the TOUR Championship, finishing T64 at the ZOZO Championship and 17th at the Hero World Challenge.
Jon Rahm, the previous winner of The Sentry will not be in attendance this week as he has decided to join the LIV Tour. The past two winners of this event have left the PGA Tour to join the rival tour so something to keep an eye out for.
Another notable absentee this week is Rory McIlroy who has decided to skip this first signature event of the 2024 season. He said, “I’m not a huge Hawaii guy, so I’ll probably not go to Hawaii.” Along with The Sentry, he will miss next week’s event the Sony Open, and make his debut at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am.
Sunday: Mostly Sunny 79 F, 8 mp/h N, 71% Humidity, 7% Chance of Rain
Course/ Tournament History:
The tournament was originally founded in 1953 and was previously restricted to golfers who had won a tournament on tour during the previous calendar year. However, this year it will feature an increased field with several other top players earning exemptions.
The Sentry Tournament of Champions has been held during the first week of January since 1999. It was that year that the event was moved to its current location at the Kapalua Resort.
This event has undergone several different title sponsors and venues in addition to format changes. From 2012-2015 it used a Friday-Monday format to not compete against the NFL schedule.
The 2024 edition will feature its largest prize pool ever and will increase the winner’s share to $3.6 Million from last year’s $2.7 Million. In addition to the major increase in money, the FedEx Cup Points offered have also jumped up to 700.
The Plantation Course is located at the Kapalua Resort on the island of Maui, Hawaii, USA. It was designed by Ben Crenshaw and Bill Coore and is known for its dramatic elevation changes and stunning views of the Pacific Ocean. The course features wide fairways, large and undulating greens, and challenging bunkers. The layout takes advantage of the natural terrain, with holes that wind through the slopes of the West Maui Mountains. One of the most famous holes on the Plantation Course is the par-5 18th hole, which plays downhill and offers panoramic views of the ocean.
Most Wins at Event:
5, Jack Nicklaus (1963, 1964, 1971, 1973, 1977)
72-Hole Record:
258, Cameron Smith (2022)
18-Hole Record:
61, Jon Rahm (3rd round, 2022), Justin Thomas (3rd round, 2022), Matt Jones (4th round, 2022)
Course Guide/ Scorecard:
The Plantation Course at Kapalua is arguably one of the most gorgeous tracks on the PGA Tour. It sits on the shores of Maui offering stunning views from most holes.
That being said, it’s also one of the easiest courses on Tour as seen by the previous year’s scoring averages. This event is what most touts like to call a “birdie-fest” as the winning scores have all been around -20 or below. The only outlier came back in 2020 when Justin Thomas won this tournament with a -14. In 2020, the wind was a major factor and should be similar to what we’re supposed to see this weekend, so I’m betting we see a winning score around -15/-16. Superbook currently has the 72-hole winning score set at 265.5 (-26.5) which seems high given the weather conditions as I mentioned before. If I had to place a bet on it, I would guess we see a winning score over this number.
The main defense of the course is the winds, as it sits on the coastline but, also the elevation changes. This course has the largest amount of elevation changes on Tour which can cause blind approach shots.
The course underwent significant renovations in 2019, led by architects Bill Coore and Ben Crenshaw. The changes were aimed at modernizing the course while preserving its unique characteristics. The tee boxes were moved back, bunkers were repositioned, and most greens were re-contoured. Despite all these changes to make the course more difficult, the past two winners have finished at -34 and -27.
The Plantation Course is the only Par 73 we’ll see on Tour all year and is a bomber’s paradise playing roughly 7,600 yards. The course features 5 Par 5’s all of which play over 525 yards with the 18th playing an astounding 677 yards. Despite this being one of the longer courses on tour, the elevation does have to be accounted for as the 18th is still reachable in two for some players.
The three Par 3’s range from 161 to 219 yards. Last year, all of the par 3’s had a scoring average under par.
No. 8, 199 yards, Par 3: “The eighth is a middle iron par three playing across a native canyon to a receptive green. The green that slopes back-to-front and right-to-left was built to hold and nurse the ball to the left, given the strong trade winds from the right.”
No. 11, 161 yards, Par 3: “The last par three of the course demands and rewards thought and finesse. The desired tee shot is a short iron that either “cuts” and “holds” into the wind blowing from the player’s right shoulder or one that allows for drift and uses the approach and slope of the green for assistance. A shot flown directly to the back left pin will not likely be tried more than once as holding the green is very tough due to the difficulty in holding the sloping green.”
There are eleven Par 4’s at Kapalua with the majority of those holes ranging between 400 and 450 yards. In terms of scoring average, the toughest Par 4 last year was No. 13 (+0.085).
No. 6, 424 yards, Par 4: “Another hole representative of earlier architectural forms, the sixth is a spectacular and mysterious par four affording alternate routes to the green. Playing through strong crossing winds from the right, the ideal tee shot is one played more dangerously, powerfully, and accurately across the cliffs to the right side of the fairway. From there, the player will be afforded an adequate view of the green. Those choosing the more conservative left-side route will have to play their approaches to a green unseen over the hill. Check the hole location as there is a spine that runs down the middle of the green, and if you are on the wrong side a 2 putt will be a premium.”
No. 13, 383 yards, Par 4: “The most difficult par four on the course, the thirteenth is a long hole made longer and more difficult by the prevailing trade winds. Low, boring tee shots and long iron or fairway wood approaches are necessary to reach this deep and deceptive green in regulation. Putts numbering three or more will also be commonplace given the green’s size and slope and the wind’s effects.”
There are four Par 5’s on the course, No. 5, No. 9, No. 15, and No. 18. All of these holes had a scoring average under par in 2023. No. 5 was the easiest par 5 on the course last year with a scoring average of 0.928 below par.
No. 5, 526 yards, Par 5: “The fifth hole of The Plantation Course is a natural and daring par five that slopes from left to right all the way. A bunker was added in the middle of the fairway during the 2019 refinement. An example of the classical “cape” concept of golf architecture, the fairway culminates at a green perched on a peninsula high above the canyon that borders the entire right side of the hole. The nature of the hole entices the player to “have a go” after a fine drive. Courage, but not foolhardiness, is rewarded here.”
No. 18, 677 yards, Par 5: “One of the most famous holes in all of golf, 18 is the hole around which the rest of the course was created. The eighteenth is an extremely long downhill, downwind par five. Despite its length, the hole is made reachable in two powerful blows by the assisting winds and slope. The fairway and green are large and receptive, yet difficult to judge, owing to the vast panorama and scale of the background. The eighteenth is probably the most scenic, spectacular, and representative of all the holes at The Plantation Course. Its scale and drama are uncommon and its challenge is within reason, while its surrounding beauty is unparalleled.”
Featured/ Signature Hole(s): 18
For a hole-by-hole overview of the course, you can click the following link.
Key Statistics:
Strokes Gained: Approach
Driving Distance
Strokes Gained: Putting (Bermudagrass)
Birdies or Better Gained
Par 4 Scoring: 400 – 450 Yards (x4)
Par 5 Scoring: 500 – 550 Yards (x3)
Proximity: 200-225 Yards
Comparable Courses and Event History
The Field/ Odds:
There will be 59 players competing in this year’s tournament. Twenty-one of the top 25 players in the Official World Golf Ranking are in the field. Here are the current favorites in this week’s event:
Scottie Scheffler (+550) won the Hero World Challenge in his first event back following the TOUR Championship where he finished T6. It was the first time he’s gained strokes putting his his last six starts. He’ll be making his third appearance at Kapalua this week. He finished T7 (2023) and T13 (2022) in his two previous starts.
Viktor Hovland (+900) will make his fourth appearance in this event with his best finish coming last year (T18). He’s played three times since winning the TOUR Championship, twice on the DP World Tour, and most recently at the Hero World Challenge where he finished 10th.
Patrick Cantlay (+1200) will play in his first event following the TOUR Championship last year. He had a disappointing 2023 season by his standards finishing without a win for the first time since 2020. This will be his sixth appearance at this event with his best finishes coming in 2022 and 2020 (4th).
Max Homa (+1200) has played three times since finishing T9 in the TOUR Championship. He finished T7 at the Fortinet Championship, won the Nedbank Golf Challenge on the DP World Tour, and T13 at the Hero World Challenge. This will be his fourth appearance at this event with his best finish coming last year (T3).
Collin Morikawa (+1200) will make his fifth appearance at Kapalua. He has some impressive course history finishing T7 or better in his four previous starts at this event. Morikawa has played twice since the TOUR Championship finishing winning the ZOZO Championship and 7th at the Hero World Challenge.
Previous Winners in the Field:
Harris English (’21), Xander Schauffele (’19), Jordan Spieth (’16)
Debutants in the Field:
Akshay Bhatia, Davis Riley, Nick Hardy, Kurt Kitayama, Lee Hodges, Ludvig Aberg, Matt Wallace, Nico Echavarria, Taylor Moore, Vincent Norrman, Wyndham Clark, Byeong Hun An, Eric Cole, Tommy Fleetwood, Tyrrell Hatton, Denny McCarthy, Patrick Rodgers, and Adam Schenk
Notable Withdraws:
None
To see the most up-to-date odds, you can click the following link.
To see the full field for this event and how they qualified, you can click the following link.
Horses for Courses:
The Sentry
Sentry Tournament of Champions
Sentry Tournament of Champions
Sentry Tournament of Champions
Sentry Tournament of Champions
Sentry Tournament of Champions
Plantation Course at Kapalua
Plantation Course at Kapalua
Plantation Course at Kapalua
Plantation Course at Kapalua
Plantation Course at Kapalua
Plantation Course at Kapalua
2023
2022
2021
2020
2019
2018
Collin Morikawa
2
T5
T7
T7
–
–
Sungjae Im
T13
T8
T5
–
–
–
Scottie Scheffler
T7
–
T13
–
–
–
Patrick Cantlay
T16
4
T13
4
–
T15
Rickie Fowler
–
–
–
T5
–
T4
Jordan Speith
T13
T21
–
–
–
9
Xander Schauffele
WD
12
T5
T2
WON
T22
Donkeys for Courses:
“Horses for Courses” is a phrase that is widely used and describes the best course/tournament fits. These are the players that have had success at the particular course/event. “Donkeys for Courses” is something I came up with that highlights the players who have struggled at a specific course/tournament.
The Sentry
Sentry Tournament of Champions
Sentry Tournament of Champions
Sentry Tournament of Champions
Sentry Tournament of Champions
Sentry Tournament of Champions
Plantation Course at Kapalua
Plantation Course at Kapalua
Plantation Course at Kapalua
Plantation Course at Kapalua
Plantation Course at Kapalua
Plantation Course at Kapalua
2023
2022
2021
2020
2019
2018
Viktor Hovalnd
T18
T30
T31
–
–
–
Sahith Theegala
33
–
–
–
–
–
Nick Taylor
–
–
T29
–
–
–
Lucas Glover
–
T35
–
–
–
–
Keegan Bradley
34
–
–
–
T27
–
Adam Svensson
37
–
–
–
–
–
Adam Hadwin
–
–
–
–
–
32
Previous Winners Scores & Prices:
2023: Jon Rahm (-27)
Price: 7-1
2022: Cameron Smith (-34)
Price: 28-1
2021: Harris English (-25)
Price: 33-1
2020: Justin Thomas (-14)
Price: 11-2
2019: Xander Schauffele (-23)
Price: 22-1
Previous Winners Incoming Form (Last 5 Starts):
2023: Jon Rahm
T8 – Hero World Challenge (PGA)
T4 – THE CJ CUP in South Carolina (PGA)
WON – DP World Tour Championship (EUR)
WON – acciona Open de Espana (EUR)
T2 – BMW PGA Championship (EUR)
2022: Cameron Smith
T4 – The RSM Classic (PGA)
T15 – Hewlett Packard Enterprise Houston Open (PGA)
T9 – THE CJ CUP (PGA)
T14 – TOUR Championship (PGA)
T34 – BMW Championship (PGA)
2021: Harris English
T5 – Mayakoba Golf Classic (PGA)
T6 – The RSM Classic (PGA)
T28 – ZOZO Championship (PGA)
10 – THE CJ CUP (PGA)
MC – Shriners Hospitals for Children Open (PGA)
2020: Justin Thomas
T5 – Hero World Challenge (PGA)
T17 – ZOZO Championship (PGA)
WON – THE CJ CUP (PGA)
T4 – Safeway Open (PGA)
T3 – TOUR Championship (PGA)
2019: Xander Schauffele
T8 – Hero World Challenge (PGA)
WON – WGC-HSBC Champions (PGA)
T48 – THE CJ CUP (PGA)
25 – CIMB Classic (PGA)
T16 – DP World Tour Championship, Dubai (EUR)
Previous Winners Finishes at Event:
2023: Jon Rahm
2022 – 2
2021 – T7
2020 – 10
2019 – T8
2018 – 2
2022: Cameron Smith
2021 – T24
2018 – T17
2021: Harris English
2014 – T11
2020: Justin Thomas
2019 – 3
2018 – T22
2017 – WON
2016 – T21
2019: Xander Schauffele
2018 – T22
Picks (Outrights):
Collin Morikawa (+1200) – BetMGM
Risk: 0.67 to win 8.04 Units
Matthew Fitzpatrick (+3000) – BetMGM
Risk: 0.27 to win 8.10 Units
Tom Kim (+3000) – FanDuel
Risk: 0.27 to win 8.10 Units
Total Risk on Outrights: 1.21 Units
Picks (Top 10):
Max Homa (+100) – BetMGM
Risk: 1.00 to win 1.00 Units
Total Risk on Top 10s: 1.00 Units
Picks (Top 20):
Eric Cole (+138) – BetMGM
Risk: 1.00 to win 1.38 Units
Cameron Davis (+150) – BetMGM
Risk: 1.00 to win 1.38 Units
Total Risk on Top 20s: 2.00 Units
As always, all of my placement bets are through BetMGM as they’re one of the only books without dead-heat rules. If you’d like to bet these placements at BetMGM, you can get up to $1500 in Bonus Bets if you don’t win if you’re a first-time user.
Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting. Any feedback whether positive or negative is always encouraged.
We have a Tuesday Free Pick for everyone this evening as we look at a solid slate of games returning from the holidays. Today is always the day I look at where my handicapping calendar officially flips over to being almost entirely College Basketball. With Bowl season behind us and only the NFL playoffs on the horizon my focus is now 90% CBB and this is usually when we get hot every year. In January and February last year we went 109-81-8 +25.79 Units. Overall record here early on the CBB year is 54-55 dropping 8.82 Units so the big turn around is coming. Free picks record here at TheOddsbreakers.com sits at 3-1 on College Hoops this season. We have 3 CBB selections on the card tonight.
My free play today takes us to Fort Collins, CO for some late night KNAction featuring the New Mexico Lobos (12-1) stopping to visit the Colorado State Rams (12-1). This is the Mountain West conference opener for both teams and the current line sits at CSU -3.5 with the over/under checking in at 158.
The New Mexico Lobos come into this game winners of eleven straight contests. The Lobos also got some good news this afternoon as both leading scorer Guard Donovan Dent (Quad) and Guard Tru Washington (illness) sound like they are good to go tonight. This will be one of the few times this year where Jamal Mashburn Jr., Dent and Guard Jaleen House will be on the floor together and it should help them out long term, but I do have some concerns with how the points and time on the floor gets distributed. On defense this group is a heavy pressure team that tends to foul a lot. Both KenPom and Haslametrics rank NMU’s offense right around 50th overall in the country. While they are certainly a top tier offense their effective FG% is lower than some other squads putting up the points they are as a lot of their success has been through pressing and pushing the ball to get solid looks in transition. Their average possession length is only 15.3 seconds. Their only blemish on the season was at the hands of a good St. Mary’s team who slowed the game down and really got the Lobos out of their rhythm.
Colorado State is led by Senior Guard Isaiah Stevens who is putting up 17.3 PPG, dishing out 7.3 APG, and only 2.5 Turnovers per contest. He is shooting 45.8% from 3-point land and 53.6% overall. The rest of the team is no slouch when it comes to shooting either as they are #3 in the country in effective field goal percentage. They are also #3 in the nation in assists per field goals made. This team is also cashing in at the charity stripe where they are hitting 77.6% of their free throws. If they have a weakness it is on the defensive side of the ball where they are 202nd in defensive effective FG%. Their only loss was also to the St. Mary’s Gaels in a 64-61 defensive battle.
Both these teams have outpaced early expectations with UNM 9-3 and CSU 8-3 against the spread respectively. I had CSU as one of my teams to watch early this season and have been rewarded on their side a few times. I am actually looking to fade them in the right situations as the public and Vegas starts to weight them a little too heavy. That being said I am back on the Rams tonight. My concerns for UNM are three-fold. First, I think when two fairly evenly matched teams play the one who dictates their style usually comes out ahead, and I believe CSU will actively slow this game down and get into the half court whenever they can. They are 16th best in the country in taking care of the ball so the UNM pressure should be something they can handle. Plus being the conference opener for both teams there is usually some familiarity which tends to lead to slower starts which will favor CSU. Second, UNM hasn’t dealt with any opponent with the offensive skill set of Colorado St. In fact they haven’t played a Top 100 offense yet on the season. Their defense will be getting it’s first real test and I don’t think they can hold up. Finally third, Colorado State will win this game and cover at the charity stripe. New Mexico only hits on 68.9% of attempts while UNM averages 18.9 fouls per game. With CSU hitting over 77% from the stripe the over aggressiveness of UNM will be tough to overcome if they collect fouls instead of CSU turnovers.
We have eleven games taking place across the NHL tonight. I’ll break down some sides/totals along with a few player props to take a look at.
Sides/ Totals:
Washington Capitals/ Pittsburgh Penguins Under 6.0 (-118) – DraftKings
Player Props:
Roope Hintz over 2.5 Shots on Goal (+100) – BetRivers
Hintz has gone over this number in four of his last five games. During that span, he’s averaging 3.0 shots on goal and 4.8 shot attempts per game. He’s also gone over this number in four of his last five games at home.
Montreal currently ranks 28th in shots on goal allowed per game averaging 32.94. On the road, that number drops slightly to 31.83. They’ve also given up the 6th most shots on goal per game to Centers in their last ten games.
Against Montreal, Hintz has recorded more than 2.5 shots on goal in three of his last four matchups.
If you’d like to bet this prop at BetRivers as they have the best odds, you can get up to $500 in Bonus Bets if you don’t win if you’re a first-time user.
Nikolaj Ehlers over 3.5 Shots on Goal (+110) – BetMGM
Ehlers has gone over this number in four of his last five games. During that span, he’s averaging 4.0 shots on goal and 7.4 shot attempts per game. He’s also gone over this number in four of his last five games at home.
Tampa Bay currently ranks 19th in shots on goal allowed per game averaging 30.84. On the road, that number drops slightly to 30.32. However, in their last ten games, they’ve given up an average of 31.30 SA/GP. They’ve also given up the 13th most shots on goal per game to Left Wingers in their last ten games.
If you’d like to bet this prop at BetMGM as they have the best odds, you can get up to $1500 in Bonus Bets if you don’t win if you’re a first-time user.
Joel Eriksson Ek over 3.5 Shots on Goal (+115) – BetRivers
Eriksson Ek has gone over this number in four of his last five games. During that span, he’s averaging 4.6 shots on goal and 7.0 shot attempts per game. He’s also gone over this number in five of his last six games at home.
Calgary currently ranks 11th in shots on goal allowed per game averaging 29.58. On the road, that number increases to 31.37. In their last ten games, they’ve given up an average of 31.70 SA/GP. They’ve also given up the 9th most shots on goal per game to Centers in their last ten games.
Against Calgary, Eriksson Ek has recorded more than 3.5 shots on goal in six of his last seven matchups.
If you’d like to bet this prop at BetRivers as they have the best odds, you can get up to $500 in Bonus Bets if you don’t win if you’re a first-time user.
Filip Forsberg over 3.5 Shots on Goal (-140) – DraftKings
Forsberg has gone over this number in four of his last five games. During that span, he’s averaging 5.2 shots on goal and 9.2 shot attempts per game.
Chicago currently ranks 29th in shots on goal allowed per game averaging 33.14. On the road, that number drops slightly to 33.11. However, in their last ten games, they’ve given up an average of 33.30 SA/GP. They’ve also given up the 6th most shots on goal per game to Left Wingers in their last ten games.
Against Chicago, Forsberg has recorded more than 3.5 shots on goal in four of his last five matchups.
Cale Makar over 3.5 Shots on Goal (+130) – DraftKings
Makar has gone over this number in each of his last five games. During that span, he’s averaging 4.6 shots on goal and 7.6 shot attempts per game. He’s also gone over this number in four of his last five games at home.
New York currently ranks 31st in shots on goal allowed per game averaging 35.39. On the road, that number increases to 37.25. They’ve also given up the 3rd most shots on goal per game to Defensemen in their last ten games.
Against New York, Makar has recorded more than 3.5 shots on goal in four of his last five matchups.
We have a great show for you today! First, Kiev recaps the weekend in college and NFL football with some reactions and some thoughts. Next, Kiev talks about the good the bad and the ugly in sports from last weekend. After that, we get into some NFL football misleading final scores and betting spots as well as a Free Play for NFL Week 18. Should you have any questions for the podcast, or games that you want us to cap during our shows, please message us at Info@TheOddsBreakers.com. Have a wonderful week!
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146-123-6 up 11 units in 2023 MLB!
63% for 2022/2023 NBA sides and totals! 22-13 up 6.5 units. 14% ROI
55% All Time NFL Sides, Teasers, Parlays, Props and Totals! 5.21% ROI
56% 2022/2023 NFL Season 136-109-11 in Sides/Totals/Teasers/Season props up 38.5U
55% All Time College Football Sides, Teasers, Parlays, Props and Totals! 4.75% ROI
63% FOR 2022 COLLEGE BOWL SEASON UP 27 UNITS!
54% Lifetime All Plays in College Basketball – 3% ROI
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Kentucky’s Motivation: High – Great game selection for this undeserving team.
Clemson’s Motivation: Medium – Dabo gets his guys up for games even if they are not playoffs.
Home: None
Key Guys Missing:
Clemson
WR Beaux Collins (636 snaps) to transfer.
OL Mitchell Mayes (352 snaps) to transfer.
Stud starting S Andrew Mukuba (581 snaps) to transfer.
CB Nate Wiggins (494 snaps) to transfer.
LB Jeremiah Trotter Jr. (689 snaps) to transfer.
DL Ruke Orhorhoro (409 snaps) to transfer.
DT Tyler Davis (436 snaps) to NFL draft.
Kentucky:
Starting EDGE Keaten Wade (371 snaps) to transfer.
Net YPP: Clemson +.05
Basic Stats:
Both teams
Yard /Play
Yard per Rush
QBR
Kentucky Offense
6.06 (46)
4.97 (24)
131.5 (75)
Clemson Defense
4.48 (6)
3.75 (37)
98.59 (4)
Clemson Offense
5.3 (93)
4.46 (53)
126.83 (89)
Kentucky Defense
5.29 (45)
3.33 (20)
140.73 (94)
Key stats: Clemson’s D is top 4 in success rate in both against the run and the pass.
Coach Bowl ATS:
Dabo Swinney, Clemson: 12-7
Mark Stoops, Kentucky: 3-3-1
Verdict: Clemson has many guys sitting out, but we still have to respect the fact that the next guys up are highly talented and highly ranked individuals. Kentucky was kind of the Penn State of the SEC. They would bully the bad teams just to get smoked against the good teams. This team had a nice signature win vs Lousiville to become bowl eligible at the end of the season, but the loss to South Carolina the week before is certainly a head scratcher. I have a very strong lean to Clemson, but will wait too see if there are more holdouts.
Play: Lean Clemson -5
Tony the Tiger Sun Bowl: No. 19 Oregon State vs. No. 16 Notre Dame -6.5 O/U 41.5 Location: Sun Bowl Stadium, El Paso, Texas Time: 2 p.m. Channel: CBS
Oregon State’s Motivation: Medium Low – Coach is gone and this team has no conference.
Notre Dame’s Motivation: Medium – They lost some guys but some will stay and try and ball for next year.
Home: None
Key Guys Missing:
Oregon State:
Coach Jon Smith has left to Michigan State while Passing game coordinator Kefense Hynson takes over in the interim, while cornerbacks coach Anthony Perkins will serve as the interim DC.
Transfer Portal
Starting QB DJ Uiagalelei (704 snaps)
Backup QB Aidan Chiles (100 snaps)
Confirmed QB Ben Gulbranson will start after starting final eight games of 2022.
Stud starting LB Easton Mascarenas-Arnold (741 snaps; leading tackler)
Stud starting S Akili Arnold (664 snaps)
CB Jermod McCoy (410 snaps)
PK Atticus Sappington (13-of-14 on FGs)
Opt-Outs
WR Anthony Gould (517 snaps)
Starting RT Taliese Fuaga (700 snaps)
RB Damien Martinez (488 snaps) is unlikely to play in the bowl game despite being eligible after being arrested.
Injuries
Starters LT Joshua Gray (682 snaps) and LG Heneli Bloomfield (619 snaps) both missed the finale.
Notre Dame:
Coaching Changes
Offensive coordinator Gerad Parker will take the head-coaching job at Troy.
Transfer Portal
WR Rico Flores (404 snaps)
WR Tobias Merriweather (378 snaps)
TE Holden Staes (369 snaps)
WR Chris Tyree (276 snaps)
WR Braylon James (22 snaps)
Starting C Zeke Correll (558 snaps; injured since Week 10)
DE Nana Osafo-Mensah (252 snaps)
S Ramon Henderson (304 snaps)
S Antonio Carter (72 snaps)
Opt-Outs
QB Sam Hartman (678 snaps)
LB Marist Liufau (595 snaps)
OT Blake Fisher (710 snaps)
OT Joe Alt (713 snaps)
CB Cam Hart (three FF, four PBUs)
RB Audric Estime (388 snaps)
Injuries
Starting RG Rocco Spindler (559 snaps) went down in Week 10 with a season-ending injury. Billy Schrauth (196 snaps) served as his replacement.
Stud starting TE Mitchell Evans (425 snaps) was lost for the year in Week 9.
Net YPP: Notre Dame +1.24
Basic Stats:
Both teams
Yard /Play
Yard per Rush
QBR
Oregon State Offense
6.56 (18)
5.06 (19)
148.17 (35)
Notre Dame Defense
4.44 (5)
3.67 (32)
94.92 (1)
Notre Dame Offense
6.95 (9)
5.33 (11)
161.49 (13)
Oregon State Defense
5.29 (46)
3.42 (24)
129.99 (59)
Key Stats: Notre Dame is number 2 in EPA margin while Oregon State is 25th
Bowl Coach ATS:
Marcus Freeman, Notre Dame: 1-0
Verdict: They should call this the opt out bowl because we really won’t recognize much of either team here. I do know that Notre Dame still has more talent on the roster which is why they are favored here still in the first place.
Play: No Play
Liberty Bowl: Memphis vs. Iowa State -10 O/U 57.5 Location: Nissan Stadium, Memphis, Tennessee Time: 3:30 p.m. TV Channel: ESPN
Memphis’s Motivation: High – Nice to play a power 5 team in a nice bowl.
Iowa State’s Motivation: Medium Low – Not sure what to think of the Clones here. I would personally rather checkout Nash-Vegas myself.
Home: Memphis is playing at home! I think we get some Iowa State fans there though.
Key Guys Missing:
Memphis:
Starting RG Davion Carter (852 snaps) to transfer.
Starting LT Makylan Pounders (673 snaps) to transfer.
Backup QB Tevin Carter to transfer.
CB Julian Barnett (322 snaps) didn’t play in the finale due to injury.
EDGE Andres Fox (181 snaps) missed the final two games due to injury.
Iowa State:
RB Eli Sanders (195 snaps) to transfer.
Starting S Malik Verdon (496 snaps) missed the finale with a fractured forearm but might play in the bowl.
S Ben Nikkel (267 snaps) didn’t play in the finale due to injury.
Potential Opt-Outs to Watch
Starting CB TJ Tampa (747 snaps)
Net YPP: Iowa State +.85
Basic Stats:
Both teams
Yard /Play
Yard per Rush
QBR
Memphis Offense
6.43 (25)
4.56 (44)
151.4 (27)
Iowa State Defense
5 (24)
3.72 (36)
113.41 (10)
Iowa State Offense
6.11 (43)
4.31 (70)
146.35 (40)
Memphis Defense
6.17 (113)
4.74 (108)
138.61 (86)
Key Stats: Iowa State’s strength of schedule ranking 16th is much harder than Memphis’s at 109th.
Bowl Coach ATS:
Ryan Silverfield, Memphis: 2-1
Matt Campbell, Iowa State: 3-5
Verdict: Iowa state’s offensive numbers haven’t been great, but their defense is really what made this team win some big games vs Kansas State and Oklahoma State. They improved as the year progressed. I really do not like the fact that Memphis will be without two starting offensive lineman. I could see Iowa State’s D shutting this offense down, but no play at 10.
Play: No Play
Cotton Bowl: No. 9 Missouri vs. No. 7 Ohio State -4.5 O/U 49 Location: AT&T Stadium, Dallas, Texas Time: 8 p.m. TV Channel: ESPN
Missouri’s Motivation: High – They get a BCS Bowl vs Ohio State. Nice reward for a great season.
Ohio State’s Motivation: Medium – Careful here. Everyone thought Ohio State would not be motivated a few years ago in a Rose Bowl vs Utah. What happened?
Home: None
Key Guys Missing:
Missouri:
None – Head coach Eli Drinkwitz expects everyone on the team to be available
Ohio State:
Starting QB Kyle McCord (703 snaps)
Devin Brown (72 snaps) should be healthy enough to start.
WR Julian Fleming (552 snaps) to transfer.
CB Jyaire Brown (48 snaps)
RB Chip Trayanum (85 carries)
Opt-Outs
RB Miyan Williams (107 snaps; hasn’t played since Week 8)
WR Marvin Harrison Jr. (649 snaps)
Starting DT Michael Hall Jr. (368 snaps)
Potential Opt-Outs to Watch
TE Cade Stover (581 snaps)
S Josh Proctor (552 snaps)
DE JT Tuimoloau (621 snaps)
DT Michael Hall Jr. (368 snaps)
LB Tommy Eichenberg (607 snaps)
Net YPP: Ohio State +1.26
Basic Stats:
Both teams
Yard /Play
Yard per Rush
QBR
Missouri Offense
6.62 (15)
4.59 (41)
158.69 (15)
Ohio State Defense
4.12 (3)
3.38 (22)
97.21 (3)
Ohio State Offense
6.59 (17)
4.29 (71)
160.04 (14)
Missouri Defense
5.41 (57)
3.87 (45)
135.74 (80)
Key Stats: Ohio State’s defense ranks 3rd in opponent yards per play.
Coach Bowl ATS:
Eliah Drinkwitz, Missouri: 2-0
Ryan Day, Ohio State: 2-3
Verdict: In a perfect world, Ohio State would probably be favored by 10 points or so, but the whole motivation and opt out thing has really brought this line down. Now this line would be about Ohio State -5 or so if we knew if Marvin Harrison and a few other guys were playing because the drop-off from Kyle McCord to Devin Brown sure as heck isn’t this much. What is taking them so long to decide? I remember when everyone question Ohio State’s motivation against Utah a few years back when they missed the playoffs. How did that work out? Not good. I will lean Ohio State and fire on this when it gets closer to gameday.
Play: Ohio State -2 but wait.
Saturday, Dec. 30
Peach Bowl: No. 11 Ole Miss vs.No. 10 Penn State -4.5 O/U 48.5 Location: Mercedes Benz Stadium, Atlanta, Georgia Time: 12 p.m. TV Channel: ESPN
Ole Miss’s Motivation: High – Penn State is a good matchup in a great bowl.
Penn State’s Motivation: High – Great bowl for the Bullies of the Big 10.
Home: None
Key Guys Missing:
Penn State:
DE Chop Robinson (303 snaps) is opting out.
CB Johnny Dixon (497 snaps)
Potential Opt-Outs to Watch
CB Kalen King (481 snaps)
TE Theo Johnson (615 snaps; declared for NFL Draft)
OT Olumuyiwa Fashanu (722 snaps; declared for NFL Draft)
Ole Miss:
Starting RT Micah Pettus (608 snaps) was lost for the year in Week 10.
Starting EDGE Cedric Johnson (526 snaps) to opt out.
Net YPP: Penn State +.35
Basic Stats:
Both teams
Yard /Play
Yard per Rush
QBR
Mississippi Offense
6.5 (24)
4.4 (61)
162.24 (12)
Penn State Defense
3.91 (1)
2.16 (2)
109.34 (8)
Penn State Offense
5.46 (80)
4.6 (40)
139.16 (56)
Mississippi Defense
5.3 (48)
3.9 (49)
127.26 (47)
Key Stats: Penn State’s defense is number 1 in defensive success rate.
Coach Bowl ATS:
Lane Kiffin, Ole Miss: 2-4
James Franklin Penn State: 7-4
Verdict: This is a perfect number for these two teams playing each other at 3.5 or 4, however, I do expect this number to drop if a few more guys opt out for the Lions. The truth is that Penn State should be able to run all over this team with Ole Miss only ranking 86th in defensive rushing success rate. Ole Miss however will be quite motivated this game and they have beaten good defenses like Texas A&M
Play: None right now
Music City Bowl: Maryland vs. Auburn -6.5 O/U 47 Location: Nissan Stadium, Nashville, Tennessee Time: 2 p.m. TV Channel: ABC
Maryland’s Motivation: High – Great bowl game for this school.
Auburn’s Motivation: High – Hugh Freeze is 6-1 ATS in bowl games. He will get his kids up.
Home: None
Auburn:
WR Malcolm Johnson Jr. (312 snaps) is transferring.
CB DJ James (691 snaps) to opt out.
CB Nehemiah Pritchett (471 snaps) to opt out.
DT Marcus Harris (533 snaps) to opt out.
Maryland:
Starting TE Corey Dyches (467 snaps) to transfer.
RB Antwain Littleton II (244 snaps) to transfer.
Starting LB Jaishawn Barham (478 snaps) to transfer.
CB Corey Coley (305 snaps; lost job late in year)
Opt-Outs
Starting QB Taulia Tagovailoa (780 snaps). Expect QB Billy Edwards Jr. (45 snaps) to start with Cameron Edge (7 snaps) also getting some looks.
Starting CB Tarheeb Still (574 snaps)
Net YPP: Maryland +.97
Basic Stats:
Both teams
Yard /Play
Yard per Rush
QBR
Maryland Offense
5.91 (53)
3.74 (106)
142.48 (49)
Auburn Defense
5.67 (72)
4.44 (88)
131.94 (64)
Auburn Offense
5.67 (73)
4.98 (23)
131.07 (76)
Maryland Defense
4.95 (19)
3.49 (27)
120.11 (21)
Key Stats: Maryland quietly has a pretty darn good defense ranking 19th in net yards per play, but nothing is more key than their quarterback opting out.
Bowl Coach ATS:
Hugh Freeze, Auburn: 6-1
Mike Locksley, Maryland: 2-0
Verdict: I think that playing in this bowl game would hurt Taulia Tagovailoa’s draft stock more than it could help him, so smart move to opt out. He just needs to hope that his backups that have limited experience struggle against a suspect Auburn defense. This number has grown too big for my tastes as both coaches are pretty good against the number.
Play: Take Maryland past the 7 if/when it happens.
Orange Bowl: No. 6 Georgia vs. No. 5 Florida State +20 O/U 44.5 Location: Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens, Florida Time: 4 p.m. TV Channel: ESPN
Georgia’s Motivation: Medium High – They didn’t accomplish their goals but Kirby might want to prove something here. He has a good Bowl ATS at 8-3.
Florida State’s Motivation: Medium – The only way to save face here to prove the committee wrong is to play your asses off. Sadly, they now have a bunch of guys opting out. The biggest concern here for me is that Mike Norvell is 0-5 ATS in bowl games.
Home: None
Key Guys Missing:
Georgia:
Transfer Portal
WR/PR Mekhi Mews (750+ all-purpose yards)
OLB Marvin Jones Jr. (247 snaps)
LB Xavien Sorey Jr. (188 snaps)
Starting LB Jamon Dumas-Johnson (336 snaps; missed final four games)
Opt-Outs
TE Brock Bowers (520 snaps)
OT Amarius Mims (297 snaps)
Potential Opt-Outs to Watch
OG Tate Ratledge (682 snaps)
CB Kamari Lassiter (678 snaps)
DL Nazir Stackhouse (388 snaps)
Florida State:
Injuries
QB Jordan Travis (649 snaps) is out for the year
Backup QB Tate Rodemaker (141 snaps)
Transfer Portal
Starting LB DJ Lundy (403 snaps)
Starting DL Joshua Farmer (427 snaps)
OT Bless Harris (390 snaps)
TE Markeston Douglas (210 snaps)
Opt-Outs
Starting WR Johnny Wilson (459 snaps)
Starting WR Keon Coleman (672 snaps)
Starting TE Jaheim Bell (451 snaps)
Starting RB Trey Benson (413 snaps)
Starting DE Jared Verse (586 snaps)
Starting DT Fabien Lovett (337 snaps)
Starting S Akeem Dent (446 snaps)
Starting CB Renardo Green (651 snaps)
Starting CB Jarrion Jones (453 snaps)
Injuries
Starting WR Rara Thomas (391 snaps) wasn’t dressed for the SEC title game.
Starting OT Amarius Mims (297 snaps) left the last game with an injury and did not return.
RB Lawrance Toafili (361 snaps) isn’t on depth chart following surgery.
CB Julian Humphrey (168 snaps) hasn’t played since Week 11.
Net YPP: Georgia +.55
Basic Stats:
Both teams
Yard /Play
Yard per Rush
QBR
Georgia Offense
7.12 (6)
5.08 (18)
165.95 (9)
Florida State Defense
4.68 (10)
3.81 (39)
96.5 (2)
Florida State Offense
6.42 (27)
4.67 (39)
150.7 (30)
Georgia Defense
4.83 (14)
3.86 (43)
109.5 (9)
Key Stats: Nothing is more key than the Jordan Travis injury and the potential opt outs of these games.
Coach Bowl ATS:
Kirby Smart, Georgia: 8-3
Mike Norvell, Florida State: 0-5
Verdict: This should be called the potential opt out bowl. If I am Florida State, I would rather not play in it. What a mess. Both teams you would think should be motivated, yet both teams should have probably been in the playoffs. This is a large spread for such a great defense in Florida State and I give them the edge on defense. Georgia obviously has a large edge on offense being number 5 in success rate and 4th in EPA, but it is hard to get a good read on who will play in this game. Mike Norvell has a terrible bowl ATS against Kirby Smart who has been phoenomenal at 8-3, but can Tate Rodemaker grow up a bit over these past 4 weeks. Will be tough with all the opt outs. No play.
Play: No Play
Arizona Bowl: Wyoming vs. Toledo +3.5 O/U 44.5 Location: Arizona Stadium, Tucson, Arizona Time: 4:30 p.m. TV Channel: Barstool’s freaking website. OR the CW.
Wyoming’s Motivation: High – Craig Bohl announced his retirement. The kids like him and I think they play hard.
Toledo’s Motivation: Low – Jason Candle is 1-5 ATS in bowl games. I expect a low effort.
Home: None
Key Guys Missing:
Toledo:
Starting QB Dequan Finn (815 snaps)
Tucker Gleason (69 snaps) will start
Stud starting LG Vinny Scuiry (838 snaps)
Potential Opt-Outs to Watch
Stud CB Quinyon Mitchell (781 snaps)
Wyoming:
Coaching Changes
Wyoming head coach Craig Bohl announced he will retire after the Arizona Bowl.
Transfer Portal
Starting CB Kolbey Taylor (536 snaps; didn’t play final two games)
Starting RT Caden Barnett (608 snaps) dealt with an injury at the end of the season could miss.
Net YPP: Toledo +1.24
Basic Stats:
Both teams
Yard /Play
Yard per Rush
QBR
Wyoming Offense
5.54 (77)
4.43 (58)
141.01 (52)
Toledo Defense
4.94 (18)
3.94 (54)
108.46 (7)
Toledo Offense
6.53 (20)
5.22 (14)
154.46 (20)
Wyoming Defense
5.19 (36)
4 (56)
124.26 (37)
Key Stats: One would think that Toledo should be able to move the football some, even with the backup, but nothing is more key than Craig Bohl announcing his retirement while coaching in this game.
Bowl Coach ATS:
Jason Candle, Toledo: 1-5
Craig Bohl, Wyoming: 12-3
Verdict: Throw away all the stats in this game. This is a HUGE motivational advantage for Wyoming and I think that a big ML bet on them at this point looks good.
Play: Wyoming ML -180
Monday, Jan. 1, 2024
ReliaQuest Bowl: Wisconsin vs No. 13 LSU -10 O/U 56 Location: Raymond James Stadium, Tampa, Florida Time: 12 p.m. TV Channel: ESPN2
Wisconsin’s Motivation: High – Beating an SEC team would be a great start to the year.
LSU’s Motivation: Medium Low – Good bowl game but this team had higher aspirations.
Home: None
Key Guys Missing:
Wisconsin:
Starting RB Braelon Allen (488 snaps) to draft.
Starting C Tanor Bortolini (868 snaps) to draft.
Starting CB Jason Maitre (646 snaps) to draft.
Starting WR Chimere Dike (550 snaps) to transfer.
Starting WR Skyler Bell (374 snaps) to transfer.
OL Trey Wedig (252 snaps) to transfer.
Starting LB Jordan Turner (554 snaps) to transfer.
Starting DL Rodas Johnson (432 snaps) to transfer.
DE Darian Varner (122 snaps) to transfer.
CB Alexander Smith (382 snaps) hasn’t played since Week 11.
WR Bryson Green (547 snaps) missed the final two games.
RB Jackson Acker (198 snaps) didn’t play in the finale.
LSU:
Starting CB Sage Ryan (620 snaps) to transfer.
Opt-Outs
QB Jayden Daniels (702 snaps)
Garrett Nussmeier will start at quarterback.
Potential Opt-Outs to Watch
WR Brian Thomas (682 snaps)
WR Malik Nabers (668 snaps)
Injuries
Starting DT Mekhi Wingo (344 snaps) was lost for the season in Week 8.
Starting CB Zy Alexander (418 snaps) hasn’t played since Week 8.
Net YPP: LSU +2.16
Basic Stats:
Both teams
Yard /Play
Yard per Rush
QBR
LSU Offense
8.53 (1)
6.33 (1)
196.51 (1)
Wisconsin Defense
4.95 (19)
3.84 (41)
120.1 (20)
Wisconsin Offense
5.24 (98)
4.68 (39)
113.98 (117)
LSU Defense
6.08 (105)
4.59 (93)
140.63 (93)
Key Stats: LSU number 1 in offensive EPA while Wisconsin is number 38 on defense.
Coach Bowl ATS:
Luke Fickell, Wisconsin: 2-3
Brian Kelly, LSU: 6-9
Verdict: Wisconsin is missing a ton of guys which is something that I didn’t quite expect. The good news is that LSU is missing Heisman winner Jayden Daniels and the drop down to Garrett Nussmeier is significant. This year in garbage time, Garrett only had 33 attempts at 51.5% completion percentage. I played Wisconsin past the 10, but I would certainly not play them now and I lean LSU. Even a bad QB should be able to move the ball against a weaker Wisconsin defense. Now I also expect more holdouts for LSU, and if I do not get them, I am buying back.
Play: Lean LSU -10
Citrus Bowl: No. 21 Tennessee vs. No. 17 Iowa +6.5 O/U 35.5 Location: Camping World Stadium, Orlando, Florida Time: 1 p.m. TV Channel: ABC
Tennessee’s Motivation: Medium – Not sure what the big need is here for a big performance against a team with no offense.
Iowa’s Motivation: High – This team earned a great bowl game based on punting the ball better than any team in history.
Home: None
Key Guys Missing:
Iowa:
WR Diante Vines (344 snaps) to transfer.
Backup QB Spencer Petras (Utah State)
Injuries
Star CB/PR Cooper DeJean (705 snaps) was lost for the season in Week 11.
Starting RT Gennings Dunker (661 snaps) didn’t play in the Big Ten title game.
Starting QB Cade McNamara (206 snaps), TE Erick All (251 snaps) and TE Luke Lachey (120 snaps) were all lost earlier this season, although Lachey could potentially return for bowl.
Tennessee:
CB Doneiko Slaughter (387 snaps) to transfer.
CB Tamarion McDonald (486 snaps) to transfer.
CB Brandon Turnage (149 snaps) to transfer.
CB Warren Burrell (166 snaps) to transfer.
EDGE Tyler Baron (244 snaps) to transfer.
Starting QB Joe Milton (772 snaps) to opt out.
Starting RB Jaylen Wright (325 snaps) to opt out.
Injuries
The inactive list in the finale against Vanderbilt included starting RG Javontez Spraggins (699 snaps), LG Andrej Karic (266 snaps; hasn’t played since Week 9), RT Brian Grant (33 snaps), starting S Wesley Walker (636 snaps), DL Omarr Norman-Lott (235 snaps) and DE Roman Harrison (301 snaps).
Tennessee had previously lost WR Bru McCoy (231 snaps), CB Kamal Hadden (311 snaps), WR Dont’e Thornton (214 snaps), LB Keenan Pili (31 snaps) and LB Arion Carter (126 snaps) for the season.
Net YPP: Tennessee +1.43
Basic Stats:
Both teams
Yard /Play
Yard per Rush
QBR
Tennessee Offense
6.6 (16)
5.59 (6)
144.17 (45)
Iowa Defense
3.99 (2)
3 (8)
100.46 (5)
Iowa Offense
4.02 (133)
3.36 (117)
95.11 (132)
Tennessee Defense
5.13 (31)
3.2 (15)
135.55 (80)
Key Stats: Iowa is dead last at 133rd in offensive EPA.
Coach Bowl ATS:
Kirk Ferentz, Iowa: 12-6-1
Josh Heupel, Tennessee: 2-3
Verdict: Tennessee is without a bunch of corners, but does that matter against the most pathetic offense in bowl games? I think not, but I do think that this could be a very ugly low scoring game. I do not want to fade Ferentz who is 67% in bowl games. I think the under is the play but no rush. New information with Joe Milton opting out. Take Iowa +6.5 here. Ferentz is too good against bad quarterbacks.
Play: Iowa +6.5
Fiesta Bowl: No. 23 Liberty vs. No. 8 Oregon -16.5 O/U 65.5 Location: State Farm Stadium, Glendale, Arizona Time: 1 p.m. Channel: ESPN
Liberty’s Motivation: High – Huge bowl game for an undefeated team. Prove it baby.
Oregon’s Motivation: Medium Low – Maybe try to save further embarrassment, but I expect lots of opt outs.
Home: None
Key Guys Missing:
Liberty:
Transfer Portal
Starting CB Preston Hodge (690 snaps)
DL Kendy Charles (336 snaps; hasn’t played since Week 11)
DE Bryan Whitehead II (238 snaps)
Backup QB Johnathan Bennett
S Jalon Jimmerson (160 snaps)
Injuries
Starting LB Jerome Jolly Jr. (447 snaps) and S A’Khori Jones (269 snaps) didn’t play in the conference title game.
Misc.
Keep an eye out for any news involving Liberty starting QB Kaidon Salter.
Oregon:
CB Trikweze Bridges (204 snaps) to transfer.
Backup QB Ty Thompson (97 snaps) to transfer.
Opt-Outs
Starting C Jackson Powers-Johnson (829 snaps; will not play in bowl)
Starting WR Troy Franklin (722 snaps; not expected to play)
Starting CB Khyree Jackson (520 snaps)
Potential Opt-Outs to Watch
WR Tez Johnson (474 snaps)
TE Terrance Ferguson (603 snaps)
RT Ajani Cornelius (834 snaps)
DB Tysheem Johnson (748 snaps)
DE Jordan Burch (418 snaps; has practiced but also dealing with injury)
S Evan Williams (697 snaps)
LB Jeffrey Bassa (668 snaps)
Dan Lanning said QB Bo Nix and RB Bucky Irving (548 snaps) will play in the bowl game. Starting DL Brandon Dorlus (564 snaps) confirmed he will also play.
Injuries
CB Jahlil Florence (392 snaps) missed the final two games.
WR/KR Gary Bryant Jr. (511 snaps) did not play in the conference title game.
Net YPP: Oregon +1.08
Basic Stats:
Both teams
Yard /Play
Yard per Rush
QBR
Liberty Offense
7.27 (4)
6.13 (2)
174.49 (3)
Oregon Defense
4.95 (20)
3.4 (23)
117.9 (16)
Oregon Offense
7.78 (2)
5.86 (3)
185.06 (2)
Liberty Defense
5.52 (64)
3.87 (46)
124.1 (36)
Key Stats: Liberty isn’t good against the run ranking 83rd in success rate while Oregon is number 2 in rushing success rate.
Coach Bowl ATS:
Jamey Chadwell, Liberty: 0-2
Dan Lanning, Oregon: 0-1
Verdict: I am surprised that Oregon has less opt outs than a team like Tennessee or Georgia, but here we are. There could be more opt outs pending. So Oregon will be able to score at will vs Liberty, but if the Ducks have a weakness, it is against the run themselves ranking 39th in opponent rushing success rate while Liberty ranks number 3 in success rate. I think the motivation should lie here more for Liberty and They could cover this spread.
Play: Lean Liberty +16.5
CFB Invitational Semifinal – Rose Bowl: No. 4 Alabama vs. No. 1 Michigan -1.5 O/U 45.5 Location: Rose Bowl Stadium, Pasadena, California Time: 5 p.m. TV Channel: ESPN
Alabama’s Motivation: High – Natty on the line.
Michigan’s Motivation: High – Natty on the line.
Home: None
Key Guys Missing:
Alabama:
None
Michigan:
Stud starting RG Zak Zinter (649 snaps) was lost for the season.
Net YPP: Michigan +.42
Basic Stats:
Both teams
Yard /Play
Yard per Rush
QBR
Alabama Offense
6.36 (29)
4.33 (66)
167.35 (6)
Michigan Defense
4.28 (4)
2.93 (6)
100.81 (6)
Michigan Offense
6.12 (42)
4.27 (72)
168.64 (5)
Alabama Defense
4.94 (16)
3.7 (33)
118.23 (18)
Key Stats: Michigan is 3rd in EPA Margin while Alabama is 24th. Some say that Alabama has had the harder schedule, but I do not see that.
Coach Bowl ATS:
Nick Saban, Alabama: 12-8 (at Alabama)
Jim Harbaugh: 3-6
Verdict: This spread is small. I do not understand the love for Alabama minus their history for success. Not long ago this Alabama team should have lost to Auburn as well as a few other close games vs Arkansas, A&M and a loss to Texas. What has Michigan done? Well they have beaten all of their competition by margin minus Ohio State who is a top 4 team in my power ratings. I think that the best unit on the field is the Michigan defense. This team stuck together for a reason after making the playoffs and failing over the past 3 years. I think that this team is more mature than Alabama and they get it done.
Play: Michigan ML -118
CFB Invitational Semifinal – Sugar Bowl: No. 3 Texas vs. No. 2 Washington +4 O/U 64 Location: Caesars Superdome, New Orleans, Louisiana Time: 8:45 p.m. TV Channel: ESPN
Texas’s Motivation: High – Natty on the line.
Washington’s Motivation: High – Natty on the line.
Home: None
Key Guys Missing:
Texas:
Starting RB Jonathon Brooks (450 snaps) was lost for the season.
Washington:
None
Net YPP: Washington +.06
Basic Stats:
Both teams
Yard /Play
Yard per Rush
QBR
Washington Offense
7.23 (5)
4.52 (48)
163.43 (11)
Texas Defense
5.04 (27)
2.87 (5)
123.2 (34)
Texas Offense
6.65 (14)
4.93 (25)
154.49 (19)
Washington Defense
5.55 (67)
4.26 (78)
122.64 (32)
Key Stats: Washington only ranks 128th in defensive rushing success rate.
Coach Bowl ATS:
Steve Sarkisian, Texas: 2-3
Kalen DeBoer, Washington: 1-0
Verdict: If Texas could just run the ball all game and keep Washington’s offense off of the field, they could win this game and cover the spread. Unfortunately for the Longhorns, that is not how Steve Sarkisian operates. He loves to throw the ball and that could be their downfall. Washington is a much better team out of the elements, and playing in New Orleans in a dome will certainly help them. I think that Texas has issues here and turnovers will be key. There is a coaching mismatch that showed just last year in their bowl game where Washington beat Texas in Texas 27-20. Same starting quarterbacks here. Minus the early Alabama game, Texas has had a pretty easy schedule. They barely got by Kansas State with a backup quarterback and TCU. This team lost to Oklahoma back in October. Yards per play is almost equal here and I think that Washington wins this game outright.
Play: Washington +4 and Washington ML +180
Monday, Jan. 8
College Football Final National Invitational Game Location: NRG Stadium, Houston, Texas Time: 7:30 p.m. TV Channel: ESPN
