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2024 College Basketball 53-44 up 11.5U as of January 13th!
146-123-6 up 11 units in 2023 MLB!
63% for 2022/2023 NBA sides and totals! 22-13 up 6.5 units. 14% ROI
55% All Time NFL Sides, Teasers, Parlays, Props and Totals! 5.21% ROI
56% 2022/2023 NFL Season 136-109-11 in Sides/Totals/Teasers/Season props up 38.5U
55% All Time College Football Sides, Teasers, Parlays, Props and Totals! 4.75% ROI
63% FOR 2022 COLLEGE BOWL SEASON UP 27 UNITS!
54% Lifetime All Plays in College Basketball 3% ROI
38% Lifetime UFC On All Plays 3% ROI
62% 2022 March Madness College Basketball Plays at 30% ROI!!!
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The Super Bowl is a holiday for everyone to enjoy. As sports bettors, we love all of the offering and the value that has been created here to cash some tickets during the big game. Here are some of the prop bets that I have made over the past few weeks with some reasoning behind it! Members have received many more. Remember to always bet responsibly for your most enjoyable sports betting experience!
1st score FG Chiefs +375 – 1 star
1st score FG 49ers +385 – 1 star – Blended Odds is +190. This happens more often than not due to the desire for teams not to make big mistakes on the first drive.
MVP Deebo Samuel +3800 – .5 star (FD) I agree with Chernoff here
George Kittle +7500 – .25 stars (FD)
Brock Purdy +245 .5 stars (BOL)
Christian McCaffery +480 – .25 stars (FD)
MVP Isaiah Pacheco +3500 – .25 stars – If the Chiefs win it probably goes to Mahomes but Pacheco could play a huge role, but there are many ways that these players can win this otherwise.
Marquez Valdez-Scantling over 18.5 receiving yards -113 – 1 star (BOL) – No Toney and Skyy Moore is still hindered and may not play much.
Noah Gray over 11.5 receiving yards – .5 stars (FD) – Kelce will be blanketed.
1st TD: (DK)
Christian McCaffery +400 – .5 stars
Isaiah Pacheco +650 – .5 stars
Deebo Samuel +900 – .25 stars
Patrick Mahomes +2200 – .25 stars
Brock Purdy +3000 – .25 stars
Kyle Juszcyk +4000 – .25 stars – These are fun. If you care about expected value then don’t bet these.
Deebo Samuel over 16.5 rushing yards – .5 stars (FD) – This man could be the crutch for the Chiefs defense.
Total number of players to record a pass attempt over 2.5 +180 – .25 stars (FD) – Gadget plays are popular in the big game.
Travis Kelce under 72.5 receiving yards +100 – 1 star (BOL) – He had less than 50 yards in their last super bowl matchup.
Brandon Aiyuk under 4.5 receptions -145 – .5 stars (Many) – Big play guy, not many play guy.
Total sacks under 4.5 -164 – 1 star (FD) – Mahomes doesn’t get sacked often while Purdy should be handing the ball off.
Total Number of Players from Kansas City Chiefs to Record a Rush Attempt over 3.5 -188 (FD) – 1 star – I know 3 guys for sure that will. I think a 4th or 5th creeps in there. Skyy Moore could be the guy or Hardman.
Kyle Jusczyzk over 3.5 receiving yards -115 – 1.5 stars – This is 4.5 yards in many books now but I still love it. He has done this in 8 out of his 11 games that he has played.
USE PROMO CODE Basketball24 TO GET $100 OFF EVERY NBA and NCAA BASKETBALL PACKAGE For the rest of the 2024 season! Click here:https://theoddsbreakers.com/premium-plays/ Offer expires April 30th 2024
To get Kiev’s premium winners, and to support his hard work at The OddsBreakers, pleaseClick here to get his no obligation membership packages!!! We believe in getting the best of the number and it is the only way that we do business!
2024 College Basketball 53-44 up 11.5U as of January 13th!
146-123-6 up 11 units in 2023 MLB!
63% for 2022/2023 NBA sides and totals! 22-13 up 6.5 units. 14% ROI
55% All Time NFL Sides, Teasers, Parlays, Props and Totals! 5.21% ROI
56% 2022/2023 NFL Season 136-109-11 in Sides/Totals/Teasers/Season props up 38.5U
55% All Time College Football Sides, Teasers, Parlays, Props and Totals! 4.75% ROI
63% FOR 2022 COLLEGE BOWL SEASON UP 27 UNITS!
54% Lifetime All Plays in College Basketball 3% ROI
38% Lifetime UFC On All Plays 3% ROI
62% 2022 March Madness College Basketball Plays at 30% ROI!!!
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Gonzaga vs Kentucky -5.5 O/U 169
I do not know if they could set a total high enough in this game. Gonzaga doesn’t play good defense even though it shows that they do ranking 35th on Kenpom. Their schedule just doesn’t add up. Kentucky hasn’t scored less than 90 points at home since December 2nd. They play no defense and seem to not care much about that side of the floor in their high flying games. Gonzaga needs this game like blood. Their best win is home vs number 65 on Kenpom San Francisco. They will miss the tournament unless they win their conference. They will try to play some defense, but they will realize that it will be a score for score type game. Both teams are in the top 31 in average possession length. Both teams have advantages from near proximity and shooting downtown. Kentucky is number one in overs this year at 17-5. I see the over happening in a high flying game.
Over 169 – 1.5 stars
Providence vs Butler -4 O/U 147
This is one of those perfect spot games that I will key into. Both teams are 15-8 for the season. Providence beat Butler back in December at home. The game went to overtime, yet they eked it out. One of the Fryer’s best players in Bryce Hopkins was playing at the time before injury. I see some advantages for Butler here. This team should be able to hit from downtown at home ranking 50th in three point percentage while Providence only ranks 122nd in defending it. Providence only has a near proximity advantage over Butler, but their problem is that they shot way too many threes. Providence ranks 60th in three point rate while only ranking 254th in three point percentage. They also only rank 259th in offensive rebounds. Not a good combination at all. Butler is a solid team coming off a good loss vs UCONN by single digits. They do not turn over the ball ranking 23rd in turnover rate while they can hit their end of game free throws ranking 8th in FT%. Providence is coming off of a huge OT win at Creighton. I think they let down here.
Dejounte Murray, ATL over 4.5 Rebounds (-124) Fanduel
Murray has gone over this number in 8 out of his last 10 matchups.
he has gone over this number 57% of the time this season.
With no Embiid, that clears up the paint a bit for pgs to get some rebounds as well. In their last matchup, Murray went over this number.
Kyle Kuzma, WAS under 7.5 Rebounds (-128) Fanduel
Kuzma has gone under this mark in 7 of his last 10 games played.
He has gone under this number in 65% of his games this season on the road.
Kuzmas last three games he has only recorded 2, 4, and 4.
Best of luck to everyone! As always, feel free to follow me on Twitter (X) @MileHighScore. If you are wanting an app that not only tracks your bets, but allows you to shop for the best lines on the books you use download Betstamp and use code JOHNNYG at sign up! It truly makes a difference. Why bet it at -140, when a book out there has it at +110! Have a great day everyone!
Super Bowl 58 is finally amongst us in Las Vegas Nevada! What an amazing place to host the final game! This is a very interesting handicap because both teams last week had to have some luck in order to advance. The 49ers had a long pass bounce off of a defender, setting up an easy score, as well as a very timely fumble, while the Chiefs faced a very incompetent Ravens team with no run game, a QB that could not hit water falling out of a boat, and some officiating variance erroring on their side. If you look at the whole, I would say that the Chiefs had a very easy road to the Super Bowl getting a broken down Dolphins team, a battered Bills team, and what I said about the Ravens. The 49ers had to play two good teams at the very top of their game.
I feel like the best way to approach this handicap is looking for advantages for each team. Gonna start with the pushes.
Both defensive lines have their issues against the run with the 49ers ranking 26th in opponent rush EPA at 4.3 yards per attempt and the Chiefs at 28th at 4.5 yards per attempt.
From a pass defense, I also have to say that they are pretty close with the Chiefs ranking 3rd in opponent pass EPA and the 49ers ranking 6th.
Both the defensive lines and offensive lines have their strengths and weaknesses.
Let’s start with the Chiefs.
The Chiefs have a slight head coach advantage with Reid who has schemed against all of the teams in the NFL and has won the big games. I will say that Kyle isn’t too far behind, but he has choked away big games in the past as we all know with Super Bowl 54 and as an OC with Atlanta. Has he learned his lesson?
The Chiefs will have a pretty big defensive coordinator advantage with Steve Spagnola against Steve Wilks. This is the biggest discrepancy on the Chiefs side.
Even though Brock Purdy is first in offensive quarterback EPA to Mahomes at 9th this year, I still have to give an advantage to Mahomes looking at his true skill and huge experience.
The Chiefs should be able to run the ball if they play it smart and and go towards defensive end Chase Young, but I will say that KC usually pound Pacheco up the middle which isn’t a smart idea running at Hargrave and Miller.
The Chiefs rank 3rd in yards allowed to tight ends so they should be able to slow down kittle some like they did in Super Bowl 54 holding him to four receptions at 36 yards.
The 49ers had some issues on stopping some deep crossing routs as of late. I could see guys like Rashee Rice getting some big plays if Kelce is blanketed.
The Chiefs have an advantage on special teams. Butker is better than Moody while they are also better at kickoff coverage. The 49ers recently gave up a huge play to the packers.
The Chiefs have better pass rush numbers than the 49ers, but some of those games were without Chase Young.
Now to the 49ers.
Let’s start with the offensive coordinator/coach Kyle Shanahan. This man will have a HUGE advantage over Matt Nagy who could have blown the game against the Bills. I feel that Andy Reid also shares some of the lay calling duties and could step in if needed.
The 49ers run game with Christian McCaffery is tops in the league at 4.8 rushing yards per attempt and number 1 in Rush EPA. They could torch the Chiefs on the ground if the pass game keeps it honest. Now I will say that they stacked the Box against the Ravens and Lamar wasn’t good enough.
The Chiefs are great against the pass, but the 49ers are also number onw in Dropback EPA with a ton of skill at the Wide Receiver positions. Deebo Samuel is healthy and Brandon Aiyuk is a beast. George Kittle and CMC will get theirs while Kyle Juszcyk is a wildcard. Even with the Chiefs great pass defense, this might prove hard to stop. Especially if Purdy is using his legs.
Yards per play – The 49ers have a huge .8 net yards per play advantage over the Chiefs.
Skill positions, the 49ers have better guys that I mentioned earlier than the Chiefs. After Mahomes, I have to go CMC, Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk and George Kittle with Kelce right behind Kittle has his game has swiftly taken a step back.
The 49ers have a red zone advantage on offense and on defense. On defense, they rank 12th in red zone points allowed to the Chiefs at 15th.
The 49ers have a big turnover advantage being tied for 5th at +10 turnovers per game while the Chiefs are tied for 3rd worst at -11. This is what has gotten their defense by in the tough times. The 9ers are number 1 in forcing interceptions at 22 this season while the Chiefs are 29th at 8. Quarterback Patrick Mahomes has also thrown more interceptions at 17 this year to Purdy at 12.
The 49ers have a large offensive efficiency and explosiveness advantage ranking 3rd in yards per point at 12.7 while the Chiefs are 21st at 16th. Has that improved in the playoffs? Probably some, but this is a pretty wide margin.
Time for the verdict. After looking at everything, I have to think that the 49ers have the main advantages on offense, scheme, turnovers, talent, and in total power while the Chiefs have their main advantages on just total defense and coaching intangibles. I would think that the 49ers defense should be good enough to get this job done as they do some huge things well such as forcing turnovers as well as they tend to toughen up more in the Red zone. I have the 49ers winning this game 27 to 21, but I trust them more on the money line as they haven’t started off games all that well as of late. Take the 49ers to win the game.
For a team that won the NBA Championship last season, and is currently tied for first place in the Western Conference, at 36-16, the Denver Nuggets aren’t getting too much respect, are they? Trust me when I tell you, it’s not sitting well with the team. Granted, the Sacramento Kings are very respectable, 29-21 overall this season. Now, I will admit, they are a formidable foe. I know they are playing at home. But I still don’t see them being favored here. As of posting this play, they are favored by 2.5-points. I have the other side a favorite of 2.5-points. Having said that, I am aware the Nuggets played last night and took down the Lakers on the road, 114-106. It marked the third consecutive win and their eighth in their last 10 outings. They have been playing excellent on the road. If you’re worried about Denver playing on back-to-back days, don’t be. They are money on the second of back-to-back games. Meanwhile, Sacramento dropped their last two outings. They got crushed four nights ago on the road in Cleveland, 136-110. They then followed that game up two days ago at home, losing to the sad-sack, Detroit Pistons, 133-120. Normally I would look to play a team to bounce back after an embarrassing defeat like the Kings suffered. But in their only meeting this season, back at the beginning of December, Sacramento took down Denver at home, 123-117. I see revenge as a motivation for the visitor here. While the Kings possess an explosive scoring offense, they leave a lot to be desired on the defensive side of the court. This does not bode well as Denver is superior on both ends of the court on the glass, and possess the NBA’s fourth-ranked scoring defense. Once again, they say revenge is a dish best served cold, and I see the Nuggets coming in here with vengeance in their hearts. Take Denver. Thank you.
We have a huge show for you today! A long time sports bettor and friend of the show Ron Ace Sports @RonAceSports is back to break down Super Bowl 58 with prop bets Galore! first, Kiev talks some college basketball with some buy low and sell high teams for the next few weeks. Then, Kiev breaks down some of the big games of the weekend in college basketball with a few #FREEPLAYS Then, Ron comes on and the guys get right into some of the things that they are doing for the super bowl. We also talk about what you should and should not do when it comes to prop betting as well as what they have learned from last season. After that, Ron and Kiev talk about the super bowl as a whole and their picks to win the big game. Finally, the guys get into a bunch of prop bets that they have already made for the big game as well as some that they might be betting in the near future. Should you have any questions for the podcast, or games that you want us to cap during our shows, please message us at Info@TheOddsBreakers.com. Have a wonderful week!
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On this week’s episode of Expected Bets For, @FrancoTheBanker, @gretzkybetzkys and I break down the NHL slate for February 8th and offer our best bets.
Topics:
[0:00-1:24] Introduction
[1:25-16:13] NHL News & Notes
[16:14-24:20] Vancouver Canucks @ Boston Bruins
[24:21-31:24] Washington Capitals @ Florida Panthers
Unfortunately, after the video finished editing there were some issues so we just had to use the raw footage from our recording. Things should be back to normal next week.
As far as props go, we are all well-aware that not just in the Super Bowl (which was usually the only major prop contest of the year), PROPS have really exploded over recent years. Every single game in every sport, every day you’ll find a list of prop bets available to you longer than your arm. Listen folks, when it comes to props, if it doesn’t give you value, step away. If you just want to bet some props for poops and giggles, then bet 20 props for 10 bucks a game, and have all the poops and giggles you can possibly handle. However, if you’re serious about making money, be disciplined. Let me tell you what I mean by that: There is a prop out there about Patrick Mahomes throwing a touchdown; Will Mahomes throw a TD? Do I think he’s gonna’ throw a TD? I think he’s gonna’ throw several TD’s. But the odds on him to throw a TD, ranges from -450 to -500. There is no value in it my friends. There is no value at all. Listen, God forbid on the first series of the game he gets hurt and he is sidelined, then you are screwed. And to be honest with you, unless you’re betting hundreds of thousands of dollars, there’s no significant profit in it anyway. Let it go. Below are some props that I really feel strongly about. They are all props that I feel give us value.
PROPS
These are the props I feel are most “valuable” and the ones with a star are stronger, two stars are really strong as far as “value” goes.
Will the game be tied after 0-0? YES +145 *
Shortest FG of game 27.5 yards. UNDER -110 *
Will there be a ST or Defensive TD? Yes +250 *
Longest rush by Purdy 6.5 yards. OVER Even Money
Total TD passes by Purdy 1.5. OVER -110
Total receiving yards by Kittle 49.5. OVER -110 *
Will Kittle score a TD? Yes +170
Total TD passes by Mahomes 2. OVER +170
Will Pacheco score a TD? Yes +120
10)Total receiving yards by Kelce 72.5. OVER -110 *
11)Longest reception by Kelce 21.5 yards. OVER Even Money
Just like me, I’m going to keep this analysis very short and extremely sweet (lol. While, both defenses have consistently been two of the best in the NFL, I feel that both offenses can and will exploit their opponents’ defensive units here. Both offensive units have amazing receivers and great ground games as well. Mind you, a lot of people out there think the under is going to be a big play. But I think you’re going to see two smart coaches with two smart quarterbacks commanding two very successful offensive units. Defense will probably win the game in the end. But only after a lot of scoring. Just FYI, the 49ers have played to 10 overs, eight unders, and one push. While the Chiefs have played to mostly unders this season, playing in the Super Bowl is a whole different monster. I see both teams scoring quite a bit consistently throughout the game. Take the over. Thank you.
