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NHL Picks & Player Props – January 9th, 2024

We have ten games taking place across the NHL tonight. I’ll break down some sides/totals along with a few player props to take a look at.

 

Sides/ Totals:

  • Los Angeles Kings/ Tampa Bay Lightning Over 6.0 (-120) – Caesars

 

Player Props:

  • Tage Thompson over 3.5 Shots on Goal (+120) – BetMGM
    • Thompson has gone over this number in four of his last five games. During that span, he’s averaging 4.0 shots on goal and 6.4 shot attempts per game. He’s also gone over this number in each of his last three games at home.
    • Seattle currently ranks 10th in shots on goal allowed per game averaging 29.62. On the road, that number jumps to 31.26. In their last ten games, they’ve given up an average of 32.30 SA/GP. They’ve also given up the 5th most shots on goal per game to Centers in their last ten games.
    • Against Seattle, Thompson has recorded more than 3.5 shots on goal in two of his last three matchups.

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  • Nikolaj Ehlers over 3.5 Shots on Goal (+100) – BetMGM
    • Ehlers has gone over this number in four of his last five games. During that span, he’s averaging 4.0 shots on goal and 7.2 shot attempts per game. He’s also gone over this number in each of his last four games at home.
    • Columbus currently ranks 30th in shots on goal allowed per game averaging 34.39. On the road, that number jumps slightly to 34.67. On the year given up the 7th most shots on goal per game to Left Wingers.
    • Against Columbus, Ehlers has recorded more than 3.5 shots on goal in two of his last three matchups.

If you’d like to bet this prop at BetMGM as they have the best odds, you can get up to $1500 in Bonus Bets if you don’t win if you’re a first-time user.

Here’s my link to sign up at BetMGM!

 

  • Evander Kane over 2.5 Shots on Goal (-135) – DraftKings
    • Kane has gone over this number in four of his last five games. During that span, he’s averaging 3.2 shots on goal and 4.6 shot attempts per game. He’s also gone over this number in each of his last four games on the road.
    • Chicago currently ranks 28th in shots on goal allowed per game averaging 33.08. At home, that number drops slightly to 33.00. In their last ten games, they’ve given up an average of 35.10 SA/GP. They’ve also given up the most shots on goal per game to Left Wingers in their last ten games.
    • Against Chicago, Kane has recorded more than 2.5 shots on goal in four of his last five matchups.

 

  • Cole Perfetti over 0.5 Points (-120) – DraftKings
    • Perfetti has gone over this number in four of his last five games. During that span, he has two goals and two assists. He’s also gone over this number in four of his last five games at home.
    • Winnipeg currently ranks 9th in goals for per game averaging 3.38. At home, that number jumps to 3.50.
    • Columbus currently ranks 30th in goals allowed per game averaging 3.63. On the road, that number jumps to 3.83. In their last ten games, they’ve given up an average of 3.90 GA/GP.
    • Against Columbus, Perfetti has recorded more than 0.5 points in one of his last two matchups.

 

  • Vladislav Namestnikov over 0.5 Points (+105) – BetMGM
    • Namestnikov has gone over this number in four of his last five games. During that span, he has two goals and five assists. He’s also gone over this number in three of his last five games at home.
    • Winnipeg currently ranks 9th in goals for per game averaging 3.38. At home, that number jumps to 3.50.
    • Columbus currently ranks 30th in goals allowed per game averaging 3.63. On the road, that number jumps to 3.83. In their last ten games, they’ve given up an average of 3.90 GA/GP.
    • Against Columbus, Namestnikov has recorded more than 0.5 points in each of his last five matchups.

If you’d like to bet this prop at BetMGM as they have the best odds, you can get up to $1500 in Bonus Bets if you don’t win if you’re a first-time user.

Here’s my link to sign up at BetMGM!

 

All Data Provided by Linemate and Shot Propz.

 

Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting.

College Football CFB Invitational Final Game – Sports Betting

Monday, Jan. 8

College Football Final National Invitational Game:   Washington vs Michigan -5 O/U 55.5
Location:  NRG Stadium, Houston, Texas
Time:  7:30 p.m.
TV Channel:  ESPN

Motivation will be high for both teams.

Home:  None

Net YPP:  Michigan +.22

Basic Stats:  

Both teams Yard /Play Yard per Rush QBR
Michigan Offense 6.11 (45) 4.25 (72) 168.62 (5)
Washington Defense 5.66 (68) 4.4 (86) 122.87 (32)
Washington Offense 7.25 (5) 4.42 (55) 164.96 (11)
Michigan Defense 4.29 (4) 3.03 (7) 101.52 (3)

 

Key Stats:   Michigan has a solid rushing offense with two stud backs in Blake Corum and Donavan Edwards.   Washington ranks 129th in opponent rushing success rate.

Coach Bowl ATS:

  • Jim Harbaugh: 4-6
  • Kalen DeBoer, Washington: 1-0

Verdict:  This is going to be a fun national championship.   Do I think someone is betting blown out here?  I do not think that, but I do also think that Michigan should be able to put up a large amount of points weather Washington does or not.   Washington’s defense played a bend not break style against Texas that worked thanks to having the lead.   Will they have the lead in this game?   I am not quite so sure.   I do know that Washington ranks number 4 in offensive success rate ranking top 10 in both the run and the pass, but they are finally playing a very very good defense that could cause them some issues.  Michigan’s defense was the unit that came up big in their game vs Alabama.   They held Jalen Milroe to less than 120 passing yards and a QBR of 45.1.   Michigan ranks number 7 in opponent yards per rush and number 2 in opponent red zone success rate.  I am concerned some that Washington will have to use their punter while I am not so sure the same will happen with the Wolverines.  Washington’s defense ranks very poor against the run, and if Michigan has the lead, I could see the clock being drained while the Wolverines have continued success pounding the ball down the field.   At the same time, I have been very impressed with Michael Penix’s passing game and coach Kalen Deboer’s amazing play calling.  I could see Washington back dooring this 5 point spread.  I have Michigan -4 as the correct number for the spread, but I also see the upside here for the game for Michigan and I do not think that this team falters.

Play:  Michigan ML -205 – 3 stars
Prop:  Donavan Edwards over 30.5 rushing yards – 1 star

References:

https://fansided.com/betsided/posts/every-college-football-head-coachs-against-spread-record-bowl-games-01hgtsm2jmen

https://www.actionnetwork.com/ncaaf/2023-college-football-news-tracker-bowl-opt-outs-player-injuries-transfer-portal-more

Podcast 3 – 24 – College Basketball & NFL Football Recap – Box Scores & Betting Spots – Sports Betting

We have a great show for you today!  First, Kiev recaps the weekend in college basketball and NFL football with some reactions and some thoughts.  Next, Kiev talks about the good the bad and the ugly in sports from last weekend.  After that, we get into some NFL football misleading final scores as well as a Free Play for NFL Wildcard Weekend and the CFB National Championship.  Should you have any questions for the podcast, or games that you want us to cap during our shows, please message us at Info@TheOddsBreakers.com.  Have a wonderful week!

Link to wagering on our best bets from the show:  https://mediaserver.betmgmpartners.com/renderBanner.do?zoneId=1702979

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NFL Week 18 Sunday Fun-day Plays – Sports Betting

Bears vs Packers -3 O/U 45.5

Once again the Green Bay Packers are at a win and get in scenario just like last year.   What could go wrong?   Well, some say this game is big for the Packers, but I might argue that this game is actually bigger for the Bears future of Justin Fields.   When you become a bear you have literally two jobs.   Make the playoffs and beat the Packers.   Let’s take a look at these teams.   From a full season perspective, the Packers rank a nice 7th in offensive EPA to the Bears at 21st, while on defense the Bears rank 14th in EPA to the Packers at 24th.   This is close to a push with a slight favorite to the Packers.

What have you done for me lately?   Since week 10, the Packers rank a massive 2nd in offensive EPA but the Bears are a surprising 17th.   On the other side of the ball the Packers rank 25th in defensive EPA while the Bears rank a massive number one!   This certainly shows an advantage for the Bears.   Both of these teams have some injuries.  Christian Watson is questionable with a hamstring while the Bears best corner in Jaylon Johnson is doubtful.  I think that this game will be up to the quarterbacks and the pass rush.   Right now, the Packers pass rusher Preston Smith is questionable and may play banged up.   The Bears have Montez Sweat and DeMarcus Walker both healthy while they lost Yannick Ngakoue earlier in the season.   I like Justin Field’s rushing ability here more than Jordan Love’s.  I think that Fields may be the better quarterback than Love and Green Bay will experience Deja Vu this Sunday.   This Bears team is much different than they were week one than they are today at week 18.   Spoilers ready.

Bears +3 – 2 stars

Bonus Play:  Austin Eckler 1st TD scorer +500 – .5 stars.  He has incentives to break today.

Teaser:   Jets to +8.5 with the Broncos to +9 – 3 stars – Both teams will fight their last meaningless game vs opponents who also have meaningless games.   

College Basketball 1/6/24 Saturday Super Play – Sports Betting

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146-123-6 up 11 units in 2023 MLB!

63% for 2022/2023 NBA sides and totals!   22-13 up 6.5 units.  14% ROI

55% All Time NFL Sides, Teasers, Parlays, Props and Totals!  5.21% ROI

56% 2022/2023 NFL Season 136-109-11 in Sides/Totals/Teasers/Season props up 38.5U

55% All Time College Football Sides, Teasers, Parlays, Props and Totals!  4.75% ROI

63% FOR 2022 COLLEGE BOWL SEASON UP 27 UNITS!

54% Lifetime All Plays in College Basketball – 3% ROI

38% Lifetime UFC On All Plays 3% ROI

62% 2022 March Madness College Basketball Plays at 30% ROI!!!

Auburn vs Arkansas +2.5 O/U 157.5

Normally I do not look to fade home dogs on big Saturdays, but this is a spot where I see some value.   Auburn has been a force this year ranking number 10 on Kenpom.  They play some amazing defense ranking 18th in efficiency with a great offense ranking 16th in overall efficiency and 57th effective FG%.   Arkansas on the other hand has a pretty good offense ranking 51st in efficiency, but their defense certainly has let them down with losses to Oklahoma, North Carolina, Memphis and at home to UNC Greensboro.   Now according to Kenpom, Bart Torvik, and Haslametrics, Auburn should win this game by at least five points.  The disparity is eleven for Haslametrics. One of the biggest factors for this game in my opinion is the revenge spot.   Last year, Arkansas took Auburn out of the SEC tournament in their very first game.  Auburn has plenty of upper classman who will remember this.  We have to like the fact that Auburn ranks 28th in offensive rebounds to Arkansas ranking 219th.  Rebounding is a big factor in big games.   The numbers just do not add up here and I am going to take the Tigers for the win.

Auburn ML -140 – 2.5 stars

College Basketball Friday Freebie – Sports Betting

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To get Kiev’s premium winners, and to support his hard work at The OddsBreakers, please Click here to get his no obligation membership packages!!!   We believe in getting the best of the number and it is the only way that we do business!

146-123-6 up 11 units in 2023 MLB!

63% for 2022/2023 NBA sides and totals!   22-13 up 6.5 units.  14% ROI

55% All Time NFL Sides, Teasers, Parlays, Props and Totals!  5.21% ROI

56% 2022/2023 NFL Season 136-109-11 in Sides/Totals/Teasers/Season props up 38.5U

55% All Time College Football Sides, Teasers, Parlays, Props and Totals!  4.75% ROI

63% FOR 2022 COLLEGE BOWL SEASON UP 27 UNITS!

54% Lifetime All Plays in College Basketball – 3% ROI

38% Lifetime UFC On All Plays 3% ROI

62% 2022 March Madness College Basketball Plays at 30% ROI!!!

 

UCONN vs Butler +5 O/U 144

This should be a great game to watch tonight as the 2023 college basketball champions head to Indianapolis to play the Butler Bulldogs.   Now Butler has has their struggles away from home only shooting 49.3% effective FG, but they at least shoot 55.7% at home.  UCONN on the other hand has the same issues.   They are an amazing home team, yet on the road only shoot a 53% effective FG.   The bigger issue is that UCONN’s best player in 7/2 Center Donovan Clingan is injured which puts the huskies at a disadvantage down low.   Clingan averaged 13.9 points per game with 6.3 rebounds.

 

Another issue that could pop up is that a cold/flu bug may be running through the team and we do not know exactly what that may mean at tip-off.   Gonna take the Bulldogs here to cover in what I feel will be a close game.

Butler +5 – 2 stars

Podcast 2 – 24 – With Erik Haslam – College Football Championship – NFL Week 18 – Sports Betting

The OddsBreakers Sports Betting Podcast
The OddsBreakers All Rights Reserved

We have a great show for you today!  Erik Haslam from @Haslametrics is back to break down a big weekend of college basketball!  First, Kiev gets into the final bowl game and some plays that he might be making in it.  Next, Kiev talks about the full slate of NFL games with some plays and some leans.  After that, Kiev gives out his refuse to lose teaser that is 11-6 for the season.  Then, Erik comes on and the guys get right into his wonderful site at halsametics while talking about the ins and outs of rating these teams properly and from an efficiency standpoint.  Finally, we get into some College basketball games for the weakened with a play that Kiev may be making.  Should you have any questions for the podcast for Monday, or games that you want us to cap during our shows, please message us at Info@TheOddsBreakers.com.  Have a wonderful weekend!

Link to wagering on our best bets from the show with a huge bonus at BetMGM: https://affiliates.routy.app/route/58681?affId=10159&ts=5001193

USE PROMO CODE Basketball24 TO GET $100 OFF EVERY NBA and NCAA BASKETBALL PACKAGE For the rest of the 2024 season! Click here: https://theoddsbreakers.com/premium-plays/
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If you want to subscribe to support us and get some very frequent winners please Click Here to become a member of The OddsBreakers and gain access to premium plays BEFORE the line moves!  Or, you can visit theoddsbreakers.com and click shop and pick one of our great handicappers including Kiev O’Neil @OBKiev at only $84 per month on a 1 year subscription!  You could also support us at Patreon.com for only $10 a month to help us out and thank us for some free plays as well as get some extra benefits and merchandise.

Follow us @TheOddsBreakers on social media!

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Audio Player

NBA player props January 4th, 2024

Player prop to target: 

  • Jamal Murray, DEN over 32.5 Pts+ Reb+ Asts (-120) BetMGM
    • Murray has gone over this number in each of the last three matchups against GSW.
    • In his last 5/6 games, Jamal has gone over this line. Along with 3/5 away.
    • The Nuggets are starting to find their stride, and need to keep pace if they want to lock in the number one seed come playoff time. I look for them to hit the last stretch before the All star break hard.

 

Best of luck to everyone! Fanduel always has their TNT no risk promotion, so parlay these together at your own risk as you can find these lines on there as well. As always, feel free to follow me on Twitter (X) @MileHighScore. If you are wanting an app that not only tracks your bets, but allows you to shop for the best lines on the books you use download Betstamp and use code JOHNNYG at sign up! It truly makes a difference. Why bet it at -140, when a book out there has it at +110! Have a great day everyone!

Expected Bets For – Episode 59 – January 4th, 2024

On this week’s episode of Expected Bets For, @FrancoTheBanker, @gretzkybetzkys and I break down the games on January 4th and offer our best bets.

 

Topics:

  • [0:00-2:21] Introduction
  • [2:22-7:57] Pittsburgh Penguins @ Boston Bruins
  • [7:58-16:24] Buffalo Sabres @ Montreal Canadiens
  • [16:25-23:28] Columbus Blue Jackets @ Philadelphia Flyers
  • [23:29-31:36] Colorado Avalanche @ Dallas Stars
  • [31:37-39:07] Tampa Bay Lightning @ Minnesota Wild
  • [39:08-45:04] New York Islanders @ Arizona Coyotes
  • [45:05-51:08] Florida Panthers @ Vegas Golden Knights

 

Video Link:

 

Podcast Link:

Expected Bets For Apple Podcast Link

 

Promotional Links:

  • BetMGM
    • Offer: $1500 in Bonus Bets if you don’t win
  • BetRivers
    • Offer: Up to $500 in 2nd Chance Bets (some states are $250 or $100)

 

Twitter Handles:

 

Any feedback is encouraged whether it’s positive or critical so please give it a listen and let me know what you think!

NFL Week 17 Misleading Final Scores

The Patriots out-gained the Bills 294 to 281 yet lost 27-21.  A 4-0 turnover ratio got them.

The Raiders yards were mainly garbage time.

The Buccaneers yards were a lot of garbage time.

The Lions out-gained the Cowboys 420 to 384 yet lost 20-19.   Equal turnovers at 2 but biased officiating got the Lions.