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NBA player props December 6th, 2023

Player props to target:

  • Darius Garland, CLE U 2.5 3’s (-150) Fanduel
    • Darius has came close to the over multiple timnes, but has only done so twice in his last 10 games.
    • in his two meetings with ORL last season he went under both times.
    • In 22/23, Garland went over only 34% of the time.
  • Derrick Rose, MEM U 4.5 assists (-115) Draftkings
    • In Rose’s last 10 games he has gone under. Averaging right around 3.
    • In his last 20 games, his average drops from 3 assists, to just 2.
    • In both matchups against Detroit last season, D Rose had only 2 assists in each of those games.
  • Bismack Biyombo, MEM U 6.5 Ass (+105) Betmgm
    • Although he has came close, Bismack has not gone over this number since 11/18.
    • In his only matchup, he managed to grab 5 rebounds.
    • Bismack is averaging just 5 rebounds in his last 5 outings.

Best of luck to everyone! As always, feel free to follow me on Twitter (X) @MileHighScore. If you are wanting an app that not only tracks your bets, but allows you to shop for the best lines on the books you use download Betstamp and use code JOHNNYG! It truly makes a difference. Why bet it at -130, when a book out there has it at +110! Have a great day everyone!

 

College Football Week 14 Misleading Final Scores

Toledo out-gained Miami Ohio 370 to 306 yet lost 23-14.  A 2-0 turnover ratio and poor red zone hurt the Rockets.

NFL Week 13 Misleading Final Scores

The Steelers out-gained the Cardinals 317 to 282 yet lost 24-10.   A 1-0 turnover ratio, injuries, bad special teams, 9 penalties and bad red zone efficiency on defense got the Steelers.

The Jets out-gained the Falcons 259 to 194 yet lost 13-8.  A 3-0 turnover ratio and horrible quarterback play got the Jets.

The Patriots out-gained the Chargers 257 to 241 yet lost 6-0.  A 1-0 turnover ratio, poor coaching, and bad quarterback play got the Pats.

 

Fantasy Football Week 14

Bye Weeks:  Cardinals and Commanders

Key Injuries:

RB Zach Charbonnet with a bruised knee and is week to week.  Walker may be back though.

WR Marquise Brown injured his heel.

WR Christian Kirk with a groin injury and out for the rest of the season.

WR Amari Cooper with a head injury.

WR Christian Watson had a hammy.

WR Tank Tell broke his fibula and out for the season.

TE Tyler Higbee had a concussion and is questionable.

RB Rhamondre Stevenson hurt his ankle.

QB Derek Carr had a concussion.

QB Kenny Pickett hurt his ankle pretty bad.   Maybe out a month or more.

QB Trevor Lawrence hurt his ankle.

RB Brian Robinson hurt his Hammy.

Waiver Wire:

QB Mitch Trubisky will be big for the Steelers.

QB Trevor Siemien is better than Boyle.

QB Jameis Winston is back on again.

QB CJ Beathard for the Trevor Lawrence injury.

RB Tyjae Spears looked good for the Titans.

RB Rocshon Johnson might be the man.

WR Alec Pierce for Indianapolis had a great game.

RB Ezekiel Elliot for the Stevenson injury is key.

WR Noah Brown for the Dell injury is massive.

WR John Mechie III for the Dell injury is also nice.

WR Greg Dotrch could be a good streamer for the Brown injury.

WR Elijah Moore for the Cooper injury and he might do ok with Flacco.

WR Jayden Reed for the last time is doing well for the Pack.

RB Chris Rodriquez if Brian Robinson can’t go is big.

RB Chase Brown will carry the ball more this week vs the Colts.

RB Deejay Dallas for the Charbonnete injury.

Non-Starters trending up for week 14

RB AJ Dillon vs the Giants has a great matchup.

RB Devon Singletary vs the Jets could be big.

RB Ty Chandler vs the Raiders is nice.

TE Kylen Granson vs the Bengals is good.

WR Jerry Jeudy vs the Chargers could ball out some.

WR Drake London vs the Buccaneers could have a good game.

WR Elijah Moore vs the Jaguars could be a nice play.

WR Odell Beckham vs the Rams.

TE Gerald Everette vs the Broncos could be massive.  Broncos have the worst D against tight ends.

TE Isaiah Likely vs the Rams is huge.

Busts:

RB Jahmyr Gibbs vs the Bears is rough.   Montgomery will want all the carries anyways.

RB Kenneth Walker III vs the 49ers is bad.

RB Jerome Ford vs the Jaguars is also bad.

RB Najee Harris vs the Patriots has a rough matchup.

RB Kyren Williams vs the Ravens isn’t good at all.

WR Puku Nakua vs the Ravens is also bad.

WR Nico Collins vs the Jets is a bit rough.

Nasty Sleeper:  RB Zach Moss vs the Bengals.  If not him, then Gerald Everette from the Chargers vs the Broncos.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Podcast 93 – 23 – College & NFL Football Recap – Box Scores & Betting Spots – Fantasy Football Week 13 – Sports Betting

We have a great show for you today!  We rail into the College Football Playoff Committee.  First, Kiev recaps and rants about the weekend in college and NFL football with some reactions and some thoughts.  What the heck is going on with the CFB committee?  Next, Kiev talks about the good the bad and the ugly in sports from last weekend.  Then, we get into come college and NFL football misleading final scores and betting spots as well as a Free Play for college football Playoffs.  Finally, Dave comes on to talk some fantasy football Week 15 with key injuries, waivers, booms and busts.  Should you have any questions for the podcast, or games that you want us to cap during our shows, please message us at Info@TheOddsBreakers.com.  Have a wonderful week!

Link to wagering on our best bets from the show:  https://mediaserver.betmgmpartners.com/renderBanner.do?zoneId=1702979

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Monday Night Football Week 13 Prop Play – Sports Betting 17-8

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NHL Picks & Player Props to Target – December 4th, 2023

We have six games taking place across the NHL tonight. I’ll break down some sides/totals along with a few player props to take a look at.

 

Picks:

  • Tampa Bay Lightning (+100) – BetMGM

These teams just faced off on Saturday night where Dallas defeated Tampa Bay 8-1. Vasilevskiy had his worst game since his return finishing with a -3.68 Goals Saved Above Expected (GSAx). Tampa Bay has now lost their last four games being outscored 19-5 during that span. However, if there was ever a spot to right the ship, I believe this is it. Over the past few seasons this team has shown they can turn things around and given the extra motivation of being embarrassed in their last game, I like the Bolts at home.

If you’d like to bet this prop at BetMGM as they have the best odds, you can get up to $1500 in Bonus Bets if you don’t win if you’re a first-time user.

Here’s my link to sign up at BetMGM!

 

Late Add:

  • Arizona Coyotes (-125) – DraftKings

 

Player Props:

  • Nikita Kucherov over 4.5 Shots on Goal (+115) – BetMGM
    • Kucherov has gone over this number in four of his last five games. During that span, he’s averaging 5.6 shots on goal and 11.2 shot attempts per game.
    • Dallas currently ranks 24th in shots on goal allowed per game averaging 31.91. On the road, that number jumps up to 34.27. They’ve also given up the 9th most shots on goal per game to Right Wingers this season.
    • On Saturday when they last played, Kucherov recorded 6 SOG’s on 11 SAT’s.

If you’d like to bet this prop at BetMGM as they have the best odds, you can get up to $1500 in Bonus Bets if you don’t win if you’re a first-time user.

Here’s my link to sign up at BetMGM!

 

  • Yanni Gourde over 1.5 Shots on Goal (-140) – DraftKings
    • Gourde has gone over this number in four of his last five games. During that span, he’s averaging 2.4 shots on goal and 3.8 shot attempts per game.
    • Montreal currently ranks 30th in shots on goal allowed per game averaging 33.92. At home, that number jumps up to 34.08. They’ve also given up the 3rd most shots on goal per game to Centers this season.
    • Against Montreal, he’s covered this number is three of the last four matchups.

 

  • Alex Pietrangelo over 2.5 Shots on Goal (+105) – BetMGM
    • Pietrangelo has gone over this number in three of his last five games. During that span, he’s averaging 2.4 shots on goal and 5.0 shot attempts per game.
    • St. Louis currently ranks 26th in shots on goal allowed per game averaging 32.48. They’ve also given up the 9th most shots on goal per game to Defensemen this season.
    • Against St. Louis, he’s covered this number is five of the last six matchups.

If you’d like to bet this prop at BetMGM as they have the best odds, you can get up to $1500 in Bonus Bets if you don’t win if you’re a first-time user.

Here’s my link to sign up at BetMGM!

 

Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting.

 

NFL Week 13 Sunday Fun-day Plays – Sports Betting

You can bet these lines right here at BetMGM!  https://affiliates.routy.app/route/58681?affId=10159&ts=5001193

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146-123-6 up 11 units in 2023 MLB!

63% for 2022/2023 NBA sides and totals!   22-13 up 6.5 units.  14% ROI

55% All Time NFL Sides, Teasers, Parlays, Props and Totals!  5.21% ROI

56% 2022/2023 NFL Season 136-109-11 in Sides/Totals/Teasers/Season props up 38.5U

55% All Time College Football Sides, Teasers, Parlays, Props and Totals!  4.75% ROI

63% FOR 2022 COLLEGE BOWL SEASON UP 27 UNITS!

54% Lifetime All Plays in College Basketball – 3% ROI

38% Lifetime UFC On All Plays 3% ROI

62% 2022 March Madness College Basketball Plays at 30% ROI!!!

 

LA Chargers vs the New England Patriots +5.5 O/U 39

Sometimes you have to get a little dirty to find some value.   Bailey Zappe will be starting for the Pats this week.   Does it really matter?   Probably not.   Both him and Mac Jones are both as incompetent, but maybe, just maybe if they can try and not turn the ball over, then this team could make something happen.   The Chargers have a clear advantage on offense ranking 10th in offensive EPA to the Patriots at 30th.   The big issue here is that the Chargers are very very banged up.   From a wide receiver core of studs, LA lost Mike Williams earlier in the year as well as Josh Palmer most recently.   Rookies Quentin Johnston and Darius Davis will have to mother a load while a banged up Keenan Allen will try his best to play injured.   The Chargers offensive line is banged up some as well.  The Patriots aren’t exactly healthy either on offense, but let’s face it.   They never were healthy this season and are quite used to it by now.  From a defensive perspective, believe it or not, the Patriots are better than the Chargers ranking 17th in defensive EPA to the Chargers ranking 27th.  I think as long as the Patriots play smart football, they can win this game outright if not keep it within the number.

Patriots +5.5 – 2 stars

Teaser:   Jets up to +8.5 with the Jaguars to -2.5 – 3 stars.   The Jets will play well today after being embarrassed last week vs a division rival.   The Falcons do not blow out anyone.   The Jaguars should get the easier win today being that the Bengals are toast this season without Joe Burrow.

NFL Week 13 Sharp Money Movement

Criminal activity, illegal transaction, crime, mafia. US Currency. Cash. Money.

As of Thursday at 2PM

Sharp Money On:

  • Lions -3 to -4 at the Saints – 84% tickets and 89% of the money.
  • Packers +7.5 to +5.5 hosting the Chiefs – 61% tickets and 67% of the money.

Sharp Totals:

  • Chargers vs Patriots under 42.5 to 40.5 – 84% tickets and 99% of the money.
  • Panthers vs Buccaneers under 40 to 37 – 56% tickets and 96% of the money.
  • 49ers vs Eagles over 45.5 to 47.5 – 82% tickets and 98% of the money.
  • Bengals vs Jaguars under 41 to 39 – 89% tickets and 95% of the money.

NHL Player Props to Target – December 1st, 2023

We only have two games taking place across the NHL tonight. I’ll break down some player props to take a look at.

 

Player Props:

  • Jack Hughes over 4.5 Shots on Goal (-145) – BetMGM
    • Hughes has gone over this number in four of his last five games. During that span, he’s averaging 6.6 shots on goal and 12.2 shot attempts per game.
    • San Jose currently ranks 32nd in shots on goal allowed per game averaging 36.83. On the road, that number jumps up to 37.00. They’ve also given up the 6th most shots on goal per game to Centers this season.

If you’d like to bet this prop at BetMGM as they have the best odds, you can get up to $1500 in Bonus Bets if you don’t win if you’re a first-time user.

Here’s my link to sign up at BetMGM!

 

  • Brady Tkachuk over 4.5 Shots on Goal (+105) – BetRivers
    • Tkachuk has gone over this number in each of his last five games. During that span, he’s averaging 6.8 shots on goal and 10.0 shot attempts per game.
    • Columbus currently ranks 29th in shots on goal allowed per game averaging 33.46. At home, that number jumps up to 33.69. They’ve also given up the 8th most shots on goal per game to Left Wingers this season.
    • Against Columbus, he’s covered this number is three of the last five matchups.

If you’d like to bet this prop at BetRivers as they have the best odds, you can get up to $500 in Bonus Bets if you don’t win if you’re a first-time user.

Here’s my link to sign up at BetRivers!

 

  • Thomas Chabot over 2.5 Shots on Goal (+110) – BetRivers
    • Chabot has gone over this number in each of his last four games. During that span, he’s averaging 3.25 shots on goal and 7.0 shot attempts per game.
    • Columbus currently ranks 29th in shots on goal allowed per game averaging 33.46. At home, that number jumps up to 33.69. They’ve also given up the 3rd most shots on goal per game to Defensemen this season.
    • Against Columbus, he’s covered this number is three of the last four matchups.

If you’d like to bet this prop at BetRivers as they have the best odds, you can get up to $500 in Bonus Bets if you don’t win if you’re a first-time user.

Here’s my link to sign up at BetRivers!

 

All Data was provided by Linemate and ShotPropz!

 

Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting.