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Fantasy Football Week 13

Bye Weeks:  Bears, Ravens, Bills, Raiders, Vikings and Giants

Key Injuries:

WR Laviska Shenault with an ankle.

QB Dorian Thompson Robinson with a concussion.

WR Amari Cooper with a rib injury is day to day.

WR Rashid Shaheed with a thigh injury.

WR Chris Olave with a concussion.

WR Calvin Austin with an ankle injury.

RB Jonathan Taylor with a thumb injury is rough.

Waiver Wire:

TE Tyler Higbee had 2 touchdowns.

RB Royce Freeman had a touchdown and 13 carries.

WR Kalif Raymond had five receptions.

WR AT Perry for Olave and Shaheed injury.

WR Curtis Samuel is 12 targets and 100 yards receiving.

WR Jayden Reed from the Pack.

TE Pat Freiermuth from the Steelers did well last game.

QB Jordan Love might be a streamer.

QB Joe Flacco might play for DTR.

WR Tyquan Thornton is a speculative pickup this week.

RB Zach Moss for Taylor injury.

Non-starters trending up for week 13.

RB Tyler Algeier vs the Jets is a nice matchup.

WR George Pickens vs the Cardinals should be nice.

RB Ty Chandler vs the Raiders should be nice.

RB Rhamondre Stevenson vs the Chargers is the only guy from New England.

QB Baker Mayfield vs the Panthers is nice.

WR RB Rachaad white vs the Panthers is nice.

WR DJ Adam Thielen vs the Buccaneers is ok.

WR Nico Collins vs Denver should be nice.

WR Tank Dell vs Denver also should be good.

WR Christian Kirk vs the Bengals is hot.

TE Dalton Shultz vs Denver is a good matchup.

RB Devin Singletary vs Denver should be big.

TE Evan Engram vs the Bengals is nice.

WR Brandon Ayuike vs the Eagles is good.

Busts:

RB DeAndre Swift vs the 49ers is suspect.

DEF Eagles vs 49ers.

RB Joe Mixon vs the Jags is bad.

RB Alvin Kamara vs Detroit is suspect.

RB Zach Charbonette vs Dallas isn’t good.

RB Kyren Williams vs Cleveland isn’t a great matchup.

RB AJ Dillon vs the Chiefs isn’t great.

QB Jordan Love vs the Chiefs is bad.

WR Christian Watson vs the Chiefs isn’t good.

Nasty Sleeper:  RB Jaylen Warren vs the Cardinals is huge.

 

 

Podcast 90 – 23 – College & NFL Football Recap – Box Scores & Betting Spots – Fantasy Football Week 13 – Sports Betting

We have a great show for you today!   First, Kiev recaps the weekend in college and NFL football with some reactions and some thoughts.  Next, Kiev talks about the good the bad and the ugly in sports from last weekend.  Then, we get into come college and NFL football misleading final scores and betting spots as well as a Free Play for college football week 14.  Finally, Dave comes on to talk some fantasy football Week 13 with key injuries, waivers, booms and busts.  Should you have any questions for the podcast, or games that you want us to cap during our shows, please message us at Info@TheOddsBreakers.com.  Have a wonderful week!

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Monday Night Football Week 12 Prop Play – 16-7 in Props

@theoddsbreakers

#sportsbetting #props #tiktokbetting #freepicks #freeplays #mondaynightfootball #bears #vikings

♬ Christmas – neozilla

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63% for 2022/2023 NBA sides and totals!   22-13 up 6.5 units.  14% ROI

55% All Time NFL Sides, Teasers, Parlays, Props and Totals!  5.21% ROI

56% 2022/2023 NFL Season 136-109-11 in Sides/Totals/Teasers/Season props up 38.5U

55% All Time College Football Sides, Teasers, Parlays, Props and Totals!  4.75% ROI

63% FOR 2022 COLLEGE BOWL SEASON UP 27 UNITS!

54% Lifetime All Plays in College Basketball – 3% ROI

38% Lifetime UFC On All Plays 3% ROI

62% 2022 March Madness College Basketball Plays at 30% ROI!!!

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College Basketball Free Play – Spartans Eat Blue Eggs And Ham For Holiday Dinner

We have a Saturday Free Pick for everyone this afternoon as we look at a huge slate of games in both football and basketball. Overall record here early on the CBB year is 26-28 dropping 3.86 Units. Free picks record here at TheOddsbreakers.com is 2-1 on College Hoops this season. We have 4 CBB selections on the card so far, plus a plethora of college football and I am still looking at some late night KNAction.

My free play today takes us to Nassau, Bahamas and some holiday tournament action  previewing the UNC Greensboro Spartans (3-1) taking on the undefeated Fightin’ Blue Hens of Delaware (5-0). The current line sits at UNCG -3 with the over/under checking in at 137.5.

The Fightin’ Blue Hens come in undefeated with a victory yesterday over Brown 67-59. Their early season opponents certainly are nothing to write home about as they also boast victories over Delaware St., Bucknell, Goldey Beacom and their best win Air Force. Their defense has been smothering giving up 61.6 points per game. That being said of those teams they’ve played only Air Force has a KenPom offensive efficiency ranking over 300. They are led by Senior Forward Jyare Davis who is averaging 19.5 points per game. They have a strong supporting cast around him with six players averaging between 9.2 and 11.2 ppg.

UNCG comes into the game off a 76-64 victory over UMKC yesterday. They also boast wins over NC A&T, and an early season signature win over Arkansas. The only blemish on the schedule was a four point road loss at Vanderbilt. Their offense has shown up in a few games at high levels and they have a solid outside attack landing at 27th in 3 point percentage and 43rd in Kenpom effective FG%. Haslametrics also has an advantage for UNCG when Delaware has the ball with them showing up on defense 87th in defensive field goal conversion rate. Senior Forward Mikeal Brown-Jones leads the team at 19.3 points per game. Senior shooting guard Keyshaun Langely is also lighting it up at 16.8 points per game. The supporting cast doesn’t score a lot, but Senior Point Guard Kobe Langely has 7.3 assists per game so far to only 1.8 turnovers per contest.

Both these teams are led by four solid seniors in the rotation, for me it’s early in the season, but I’m looking at a game where I’ve got one battle tested squad and one team who hasn’t played any substantial opponents up to this point. Add into that the metrics show an advantage on both ends of the floor for UNCG. They’re also better at taking care of the ball and in free throw percentage where Delaware is only shooting 61.7%. Too many things are adding up to a UNCG victory here, and if I am taking them to win the three points really aren’t a deterrent here. I’ve got this one at 73-65, and it’s my second 2.5 Unit play of the season. (We won the first one easy)

Take UNC-Greensboro -3 for 2.5 Units

 

 

Buckeyes-Wolverines Game of the Season

Ohio St at Michigan -3 O/U 46, 12:00 ET

Ryan Day and the Buckeyes head into Ann Arbor as underdogs, for sure an unfamiliar role. You would have to go back to Week 13 in 2018 vs Michigan the last time they were underdogs in a regular season game. Ohio St won that game 62-39 and Dwayne Haskins threw for 6 touchdowns. Now, are the Buckeyes going to score 62 today? Absolutely not. Quite the contrary, their stout defense is going to lead them to victory today. A zero-turnover game from Kyle McCord and the offense will surely damper the Wolverines ability to score any defensive points. A category Michigan has excelled in, in 2023. Scoring defensive touchdowns, you would almost call their specialty. I know many of you are sitting there thinking, the Wolverines ran for 250+ yards in each of the last two matchups with OSU, being victorious in each. Yes, you would be correct, Ohio State got embarrassed defensively in the ground game both years. So, what did they do? Go recruit defensive players and execute better on the defensive side. Michigan is going to face a different animal on Saturday. Their inability to pound the rock is going to leave the game in J.J. McCarthy’s hands. While he is certainly capable of getting the job done, eliminating that electric ground game is going to impede the passing game greatly. What’s the old phrase? The run game opens up the passing game, well, that most surely applies to this Wolverine squad. At the end of the day if the game lies in McCarthy’s hands vs Kyle McCord and a Ryan Day run offense led by phenom WR Marvin Harrison Jr., I will most surely be backing the Buckeyes!

Ohio State +3 (-110) to win 3 units

College Football Saturday Super Plays – Sports Betting

Ohio State vs Michigan -3.5 O/U 46

This is clearly the best game on the docket maybe of the year.   Both of these teams will be treating this like a playoff game, and at the end of the day, this might be a playoff game.  About a month ago, I have had Michigan about 2-3 points better than Ohio State on the power ratings, but now it has certainly adjusted to much closer due to the growth of Kyle McCord.  Kyle McCord ranks 12th in QBR, while Michigan’s JJ McCarthy ranks 3rd.  When looking at the some of the Advanced stats, Michigan ranks a little higher than Ohio State in offensive success rate at 8th to Ohio State’s 21st and Defensive success rate at 4th to Ohio State’s 11th, but the biggest factor there I believe is the strength of schedule.  Michigan has played a pure cake schedule while Ohio State has had two rough extra games at Notre Dame and at Wisconsin.  Ohio State has a slight edge in yards per play, but that also could be because Michigan has taken their foot off of the gas over the last few weeks.  I truley believe that Michigan’s only big advantage (besides home field here) is the fact that their quarterback is a little better.  The X factor here for me is coaching.  There will be no Jim Harbaugh at this game and he is worth something to the spread when facing top teams.  I like Ohio State to cover the hook here.

Ohio State +3.5 – 2.5 stars

Indiana vs Purdue -5 O/U 54

This game may not be pleasant on the eyes, but there is value in the total.  neither averages over 23 points per game this season.  Purdue struggles to move the ball at 5.3 yards per play while Indiana is worse at 4.95.  The weather today will be a cold one with a high of about 38 degrees.  I can see a lot of ways that this game goes under.  Both defenses have been trending better here at the end of the season.   Tom Allen as a coach isn’t the sharpest tool in the shed, but he does get his kids up for big games.   I think that this might be a snoozer today in Big 10 country.

Under 54 – 2 stars

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146-123-6 up 11 units in 2023 MLB!

63% for 2022/2023 NBA sides and totals!   22-13 up 6.5 units.  14% ROI

55% All Time NFL Sides, Teasers, Parlays, Props and Totals!  5.21% ROI

56% 2022/2023 NFL Season 136-109-11 in Sides/Totals/Teasers/Season props up 38.5U

55% All Time College Football Sides, Teasers, Parlays, Props and Totals!  4.75% ROI

63% FOR 2022 COLLEGE BOWL SEASON UP 27 UNITS!

54% Lifetime All Plays in College Basketball – 3% ROI

38% Lifetime UFC On All Plays 3% ROI

62% 2022 March Madness College Basketball Plays at 30% ROI!!!

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College Football Friday Free Pick Video – Sports Betting

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146-123-6 up 11 units in 2023 MLB!

63% for 2022/2023 NBA sides and totals!   22-13 up 6.5 units.  14% ROI

55% All Time NFL Sides, Teasers, Parlays, Props and Totals!  5.21% ROI

56% 2022/2023 NFL Season 136-109-11 in Sides/Totals/Teasers/Season props up 38.5U

55% All Time College Football Sides, Teasers, Parlays, Props and Totals!  4.75% ROI

63% FOR 2022 COLLEGE BOWL SEASON UP 27 UNITS!

54% Lifetime All Plays in College Basketball – 3% ROI

38% Lifetime UFC On All Plays 3% ROI

62% 2022 March Madness College Basketball Plays at 30% ROI!!!

If you want to take ownership of your health, try AG1 and get a FREE 1-year supply of Vitamin D AND 5 Free AG1 Travel Packs with your first purchase. Go to drinkAG1.com/oddsbreakers

 

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NFL Week 12 Sharp Money Movement

As Of Wednesday at Noon:

Sharp Money On:

  • Giants +4 to +3 hosting the Patriots – 64% tickets and 81% of the money.
  • Colts -1 to -2.5 hosting the Buccaneers – 49% tickets and 68% of the money.

Sharp totals:

  • 49ers vs Seahawks under 46.5 to 44 – 69% tickets and 81% of the money.
  • Dolphins vs Jets under 45.5 to 41 – 55% tickets and 82% of the money.
  • Panthers vs Titans under 38.5 to 37 – 87% tickets and 96% of the money.
  • Chiefs vs Raiders under 45 to 43 – 80% tickets and 99% of the money.

College Football Friday Freebie – Sports Betting

Iowa vs Nebraska -2.5 O/U 24.5

For the love of god, do not watch this game.   I have never seen a total this low in my lifetime of college football.  But in saying that, I think it is ok to bet on it.  If you look at the record of these teams, you would think that Iowa is the much better team and wonder why they are a dog.  Here is the reasons.  Nebraska has the better run defense allowing 2.83 yards per rush to 3.14.  Nebraska has the better yards per play margin at .42 to .16 for Iowa.  Nebraska now has a quarterback in Chubba Purdy (Brock’s brother) who just might not turn the ball over.  Iowa’s quarterback Deacon Hill is as bad or worse than what Nebraska has.  Iowa has already clinched the Big 10 west and doesn’t necessarily need to win this game.   They should be focused on the Championship game next week.  Nebraska has all the reasons in the world to play hard as they will become bowl eligible if they win this game.

Nebraska PK -135 – 2 stars

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146-123-6 up 11 units in 2023 MLB!

63% for 2022/2023 NBA sides and totals!   22-13 up 6.5 units.  14% ROI

55% All Time NFL Sides, Teasers, Parlays, Props and Totals!  5.21% ROI

56% 2022/2023 NFL Season 136-109-11 in Sides/Totals/Teasers/Season props up 38.5U

55% All Time College Football Sides, Teasers, Parlays, Props and Totals!  4.75% ROI

63% FOR 2022 COLLEGE BOWL SEASON UP 27 UNITS!

54% Lifetime All Plays in College Basketball – 3% ROI

38% Lifetime UFC On All Plays 3% ROI

62% 2022 March Madness College Basketball Plays at 30% ROI!!!

If you want to take ownership of your health, try AG1 and get a FREE 1-year supply of Vitamin D AND 5 Free AG1 Travel Packs with your first purchase. Go to drinkAG1.com/oddsbreakers

 

College Football Week 13 Sharp Money Movement

As Of Wednesday at Noon:

Sharp Money On:

  • Nebraska +1 to -2.5 – 61% tickets and 80% of the money.
  • Boise State -4 to -6.5 – 78% tickets and 94% of the money.
  • Arizona -7.5 to -10.5 at Arizona State – 63% tickets and 74% of the money.
  • Jacksonville State +2.5 to -2.5 at New Mexico State – 76% tickets and 92% of the money.
  • Notre Dame -22.5 to -25 at Stanford – 45% tickets and 96% of the money.

Sharp Totals:

  • Ole Miss vs Miss State under 61.5 to 55.5 – 87% tickets and 98% of the money.
  • Ohio State vs Michigan under 48.5 to 46 – 89% tickets and 92% of the money.
  • Houston vs UCF over 59.5 to 61.5 – 67% tickets and 92% of the money.
  • Oregon State vs Oregon over 59 to 62 – 60% tickets and 72% of the money.
  • Iowa vs Nebraska under 29.5 to 26 – 48% tickets and 79% of the money.