We have a great show for you today! Will Hill @NotTheeWillHill from Bear Bets, VSIN and the Gold Boys Discord is back to break down some NFL and College football! We have a 2 for 1! First, the guys talk some baseball and get right into how to balance all of the sports that we have going on at once. Next, Will and Kiev talk some potential future bets that they might like. Then, the guys get right into college football week 11 with some Free Plays and some leans. After that, Will and Kiev talk NFL week 10 with some more plays and leans. Then, Kiev gives out his refuse to lose teaser that is 8-1 thus far for the 2023 season! Next, Kiev talks a little about UFC 295 with a play on the main event Jiri Prochazka vs Alex Pereira! Finally, we get into some college and NFL sharp money movement. Should you have any questions for the podcast for Monday, or games that you want us to cap during our shows, please message us at Info@TheOddsBreakers.com. Have a wonderful week!
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After a day off the NBA is BACK! I have four plays for everyone today that I love. So good luck and lets build off of last Friday!
Player props to target:
Jalen Smith, Pacers 1+ three’s made (-105) Draft kings
Smith has gone over this number 8 out of his last 10 games at home, and 9 out of 10 overall.
Jalen Smith hit 1+ three in over half of his games last season.
To start the season he has gone over this number in 5 of the first 6 games. 5 of which came at home.
Jalen Smith, Pacers over 9.5 points (+102) Fanduel
In his last 8 out of 10 games, Jalen has hit this over. In the two games he went under, He missed the mark by a combined three points.
In the one game he faced the Jazz last year, he scored 14, which was on the road.
Anthony Edwards, Timberwolves over 24.5 points (-110) Draft kings
Anthony Edwards as been hot to start the year. Averaging 28 points to start the year, and hitting this mark 4 out of the first 6 games of the season.
in the two games this number went under, he scored 19 and 24 points.
last season, Edwards hit this in over half of his games, along with hitting the over 66% of the time at home.
Khris Middleton, Bucks over 3.5 assists (-135) DraftKings
Out of his first 5 games to start the season, Middleton has gone over this number 4 times.
Last season he went over this number in 79% of his games.
In his last 5 games at home, Middleton has gone over in each of those games.
Best of luck to everyone! As always feel free to follow me on Twitter (X) @MileHighScore. If you are wanting an app that not only tracks your bets, but allows you to shop for the best lines on the books you use download Betstamp and use code JOHNNYG! Have a great Wednesday everyone!
The concept for “Quick Nine” is to give golf gamblers a behind-the-scenes look into their favorite personalities backgrounds and strategies.
On this week’s episode of Quick Nine, I talk with Byron Lindeque (@TheModelManiac) about a variety of topics including his start in golf gambling and his job at Roto Baller.
Topics:
You’re a South African Native and played college golf in Iowa. How did you get introduced to gambling and more specifically golf betting?
You’re a Contributor & News Desk Lead at Roto Baller PGA, can you tell me a little about how that came to be?
You’re well-known on Twitter for your graphics and more specifically your models. I’m assuming your degree in finance played a role in your Excel golf model? Do you mind discussing your trials and tribulations while solidifying your model?
You cover a variety of golf betting topics including standard outrights, placements, etc, and also DFS. Do you have a preference for one and which one have you found more success with?
Favorite Tournament/ Course
Major
Outside a Major
Course you personally played
When you’re making your selections each week, how do you approach a tournament?
First thing you look at (Oddsboard or research?)
Website for Stats (Betsperts, Fantasy National, Rick Run Good, DataGolf)
Any content you consume weekly from fellow gamblers?
How do you construct your card?
Do you start with Outrights, Placements, or First Round Leaders?
Congrats to all Erik van Rooyen backers last week at the World Wide Technology Championship! We failed to hit an outright last week but did cash both of our top 40 placements, Matthias Schmid (+120) and Adam Long (+130).
Let’s get into this week’s storylines…
The Butterfield Bermuda Championship is the penultimate event of the inaugural FedExCup Fall, a group of seven tournaments played after the TOUR Championship that finalizes eligibility for the 2024 PGA TOUR Season. Nos. 1-50 in the FedExCup standings through the TOUR Championship are locked in their positions while Nos. 51 and beyond carry their FedExCup points over. Nos. 51-60 through the FedExCup Fall will qualify for two Signature Events in 2024: AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am and The Genesis Invitational. The Top 125 will be exempt into all Full-Field events and THE PLAYERS next season and Nos. 126-150 will earn Korn Ferry Tour status and conditional status on TOUR next season.
Winners of events during the FedExCup Fall receive the same benefits as winners of Full-Field Events during the Regular Season.
Adam Scott, the current favorite at this week’s event will play in his second FedExCup Fall event. This will be his debut at Port Royal Golf Course.
George Byran, brother of PGA TOUR winner Wesley Bryan is set to make his PGA TOUR Debut. The Bryan brothers are mostly known for the YouTube channel “BryanBros”.
Oliver Betschart at just 15 years old earned a spot in the field via a 54-hole local qualifier. He’s one of three Bermudians to qualify via the event in addition to Scott Roy and Eric West. Betschart is also the second youngest player ever to compete in a PGA TOUR event.
Sunday: Mostly Cloudy 72 F, 17 mp/h N, 73% Humidity, 23% Chance of Rain
Course/ Tournament History:
The inaugural Butterfield Bermuda Championship was held in 2019, however, it was an alternate event back then. In 2020, this event started to offer 500 FedEx Cup points and became an official event on the Tour.
Port Royal Golf Course has played host to this event since its inauguration. It was founded in 1965 but didn’t open until 1970 under the design of Robert Trent Jones. Through the years, the course has undergone several renovations but, the last major renovation was by Roger Rulewich in 2008 in preparation for hosting the 2009 PGA Grand Slam of Golf.
72-Hole Record:
260, Brendon Todd (2019)
18-Hole Record :
61, Taylor Pendrith (second round, 2021)
Course Guide/ Scorecard:
Port Royal Golf Course is a Par 71 that plays 6,828 yards. The layout features four Par 3’s, eleven Par 4’s, and three Par 5’s. It’s one of the shortest courses on Tour with the main defense being the wind.
The four Par 3’s range between 148 yards and 235 yards. At the 2022 Butterfield Bermuda Championship, only one (No. 3), had a scoring average under par.
No. 8, 213 yards, Par 3: “This is a demanding par 3 and the large green perched on the ocean will present the golfer with a challenge. Bunkers surround the target and beware – the ocean awaits the long ball. A par here is a hard-earned achievement.”
No. 16, 235 yards, Par 3: “This is truly one of the most spectacular holes in world golf. The tee shot will require a solidly hit shot across the ocean to a green perched high above the ocean on its own peninsular, A well-bunkered green offers the player a small target to find and, with the prevailing winds, this hole has the ability to fool the strongest of minds. A shot to the right will be safe from the ocean but missing the traps will be a challenge.”
Six of the eleven Par 4’s range between 350 – 400 yards. No. 10 is the shortest Par 4’s listed at 350 yards with the longest being No. 4, at 458 yards.
No. 15, 412 yards, Par 4: “A dogleg to the right, with the ocean on the left and a steep run off to the right, will be the initial issues the golfer faces. Two well-placed traps on the left of the fairway must be avoided, so play for position from this tee. A risk/reward shot is available with a well-struck drive down the right leaving a short iron into a well-protected, undulating green. Achieving a par here is a challenge.”
No. 18, 410 yards, Par 4: “A long, straight, uphill par 4 requiring a well-struck tee shot to a tiered fairway with bunkers left and right – this is a visually excellent hole. The second shot to a raised green will test your skill set and be sure to take an extra club for this shot to the three-tiered front-to-back sloping green. You will face a constant challenge to the end on this hole.”
The three Par 5’s are No. 2, 7, and 17. None of the Par 5’s are listed over 600 yards. All of the Par 5’s had a scoring average below par at the 2022 Butterfield Bermuda Championship.
No. 2, 553 yards, Par 5: “This is a serious par 5, three-shot hole. Water off the tee gives way to a left-to-right sweeping dog leg, trees left and right with bunkers to threaten the off-center shot. You will need to play for position on the 2nd shot. This gives way to a short iron approach to a raised green well protected on all sides by deep bunkers.”
No. 17, 507 yards, Par 5: “The prevailing wind will punish you here and a well positioned tee shot is necessary. The water on the left will make the big hitter think and the well-trapped right side will certainly favor the conservative player. The second shot is all about position and an accurate lay-up is required to leave you with a challenging third shot to a raised green, but beware of the run-off. An undulating green caps off this challenging par 5.”
Featured/ Signature Hole(s): 16
For a hole-by-hole overview of the course, you can click the following link.
Key Statistics:
Strokes Gained: Approach
As with most tournaments on TOUR, strokes gained on approach is a major factor. While this course does have some of the largest greens on Tour, it shouldn’t be a straightforward task this week as the wind is predicted to be around 15 mph.
Strokes Gained: Tee to Green
Strokes Gained: Putting (Bermuda)
The green complexes at Port Royal Golf Course are Tif Eagle bermudagrass.
Par 3 Scoring: 225 – 250 Yards (x2)
Two of the four Par 3’s range between 225 – 250 Yards
Par 4 Scoring: 350 – 400 Yards (x6)
Six of the eleven Par 4’s range between 350 – 400 Yards
Par 5 Scoring: 500 – 550 Yards (x2)
Two of the three Par 5’s range between 500 – 550 Yards
Birdies or Better Gained
The previous winning scores at this event have been between -15 and -24. Players will need to take advantage of every scoring opportunity if they want to have a chance at winning.
Comparable Courses and Event History
This will be the fifth edition of the Butterfield Bermuda Championship played at Port Royal Golf Course so have a few years of course history that we can go off. Two of the four previous winners had top 15 finishes before winning here while the other two previous winners won in their debut.
The Field/ Odds:
There will be 132 players competing in this year’s Butterfield Bermuda Championship. Only two of the world’s top fifty players are in the field. Here are the current favorites in this week’s event:
Adam Scott (+1400) will play in his first Butterfield Bermuda Championship. This will be his second FedExCup Fall Event as he finished T41 at the ZOZO Championship last month.
Brendon Todd (+1600) finished 6th at the Fortinent Championship in his first FedExCup Fall Event. He has not missed a cut since June at the Travelers Championship. Since then, he has played in seven events with three top-10 finishes. Todd won this event back in 2019 and currently holds the 72-hole record. He did play in his tournament last year and missed the cut.
Lucas Herbert (+1800) won the Butterfield Bermuda Championship back in 2021. Last week at the World Wide Technology Championship he finished T31. Before that, he missed the cut at the Shriners Children’s Open but finished inside the top 30 at both the Sanderson Farms Championship and Fortinent Championship.
Akshay Bhatia (+1800) finished T17 in his debut at this tournament last year. He won his first event on the PGA Tour earlier this year at the Barracuda Championship. Following that victory, he missed the cut twice. However, he’s been in much better form as of late finishing T10 at last week’s event and T21 at the ZOZO Championship.
Thomas Detry (+2000) was the runner-up to Seamus Power at this tournament last year. In his only other appearance at this event, he finished T22 in 2021. He has not missed a cut since July at the Rocket Mortgage Classic. Since then, he has played in six PGA TOUR events with one top-20 finish.
Previous Winners in the Field:
Lucas Herbert (’21), Brian Gay (’20), Brendon Todd (’19)
Notable Withdraws:
Greyson Sigg, Cameron Champ, Tyler Duncan, Nate Lashley, Chad Ramey, K.H. Lee, Will Gordon, Aaron Baddeley, Carson Young, Chesson Hadley, Erik van Rooyen, Mackenzie Hughes
To see the most up-to-date odds, you can click the following link.
To see the full field for this event and how they qualified, you can click the following link.
Horses for Courses:
Butterfield Bermuda Championship
Butterfield Bermuda Championship
Bermuda Championship
Bermuda Championship
Port Royal Golf Course
Port Royal Golf Course
Port Royal Golf Course
Port Royal Golf Course
2022
2021
2020
2019
Brian Gay
T11
T12
1
T3
Thomas Detry
2
T22
–
–
Justin Lower
T8
T17
–
–
Stewart Cink
–
–
T4
4
Alex Smalley
T11
T12
Doc Redman
–
–
T4
T35
Sean O’Hair
T11
T22
–
–
Peter Malnati
–
T7
T21
T22
Donkeys for Courses:
“Horses for Courses” is a phrase that is widely used and describes the best course/tournament fits. These are players that have had success at the particular course/event. “Donkeys for Courses” is something I came up with that highlights the players who have struggled at a specific course/tournament.
Butterfield Bermuda Championship
Butterfield Bermuda Championship
Bermuda Championship
Bermuda Championship
Port Royal Golf Course
Port Royal Golf Course
Port Royal Golf Course
Port Royal Golf Course
2022
2021
2020
2019
Matthias Schwab
MC
51
–
–
Chris Stroud
MC
MC
–
–
Brian Stuard
T54
MC
MC
T51
Harry Hall
T63
MC
–
–
Martin Trainer
MC
MC
–
–
Ricky Barnes
MC
MC
T63
T53
Bo Van Pelt
MC
–
MC
MC
Charley Hoffman
T29
–
MC
MC
Wesley Bryan
MC
–
MC
MC
Thomas Gainey
WD
MC
MC
MC
Michael Sims
MC
MC
MC
MC
George McNeill
–
–
MC
MC
Kevin Stadler
–
MC
MC
MC
Greg Koch
MC
MC
–
–
Kelly Kraft
–
–
MC
MC
Matt Every
–
WD
MC
MC
Previous Winners Scores & Prices:
2022: Seamus Power (-19)
Price: 22-1
2021: Lucas Herbert (-15)
Price: 80-1
2020: Brian Gay (-15)
Price: 200-1
2019: Brendon Todd (-24)
Price: 100-1
Facts & Figures:
Each of the last four winners had missed a cut in one of their two previous starts on the PGA TOUR before winning the Butterfield Bermuda Championship.
Brian Gay is the only player in the field to have made the cut in all four editions of the Butterfield Bermuda Championship. In addition to Gay, there are three other players (Russell Knox, Denny McCarthy, and Seamus Power) who have accomplished this feat but are not in the field this week.
As always, all of my placement bets are through BetMGM as they’re one of the only books without dead-heat rules. If you’d like to bet these placements at BetMGM, you can get up to $1500 in Bonus Bets if you don’t win if you’re a first-time user.
Total Risk on the Butterfield Bermuda Championship: 5.06 Units
Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting. Any feedback whether positive or negative, is always encouraged.
