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College Basketball Free Play – Paris Is Lovely When You Take Your Time

By
Shawn Knoche
-

Got a Big Monday free play to kick off the college basketball week. So far this season we are now riding a six game losing streak and losing 3 flips at 6-10 and -5.65 Units. My process is fine and we’ll get back on the winning track starting tonight. We are 1-0 in our Free Play articles here at Theoddsbreakers.com.

My free play features the VMI Keydets (1-1) traveling to take on the South Carolina Gamecocks (2-0) The line sits at South Carolina -22 with the Over/Under checking in at 150.

It’s season 2 of the Lamont Paris era as he looks to build the Gamecocks into a contender in the SEC. He lost NBA prospect GG Jackson to the league, but only loses two other significant contributors in his mostly eight man rotation. Guard Meechie Johnson is their leading returning piece and the Gamecocks went as he did in 2022-2023. They also have two solid pillars in their incoming transfers, both who played a huge role in their victory over Virginia Tech on Friday. B.J. Mack is a 6’8″ 270Lb monster from Wofford who looks to dominate inside and Myles Stute is a sharp-shooting wing coming in from Vanderbilt.

VMI was one of the youngest team in all of college hoops last season and it showed as they only managed to win seven games overall and just two in the SoCon. They are still one of the youngest teams with two key seniors graduating and more incoming freshman due to some upper class move outs. In fact they had some lineups in their first two contests where five Freshman were on the floor at the same time. They are led by Brennan Watkins a junior guard who has the ability to light it up from deep.

We are only a few games in, but South Carolina has shown marked improvement this year so far. They should be a more well rounded team this season with a much stronger presence around the paint. In 2022-2023 VMI was ranked 361st out of 363 D1 teams in defensive efficiency at KenPom. The offense didn’t top 300 either and just didn’t have a way to get back in games once they fell behind.

If there’s a model for Lamont Paris teams who comes from the Bo Ryan school of basketball it is play suffocating defense, don’t turn the ball over and work the clock on offense looking for the best possible shot. They were 323rd in adjusted tempo last year with VMI checking in at 209th. This setup leads me to support a scoring model in which South Carolina gets up early and slows it down and coasts to victory through defensive triumphs. If you look at the South Carolina non-conference wins from last season and this year they are 8-2 to the under of this total at 150. Look for a game similar to what happened against USC Upstate to kickoff the year. I’ve got this one at 82-62.

Take Under 150 for 1.5 Units

NFL Week 10 Monday Night Football Prop – Sports Betting

By
Kiev O'Neil
-

https://www.tiktok.com/@theoddsbreakers/video/7301044513773030699?is_from_webapp=1&sender_device=pc&web_id=7275459991683204651

 

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63% for 2022/2023 NBA sides and totals!   22-13 up 6.5 units.  14% ROI

55% All Time NFL Sides, Teasers, Parlays, Props and Totals!  5.21% ROI

56% 2022/2023 NFL Season 136-109-11 in Sides/Totals/Teasers/Season props up 38.5U

55% All Time College Football Sides, Teasers, Parlays, Props and Totals!  4.75% ROI

63% FOR 2022 COLLEGE BOWL SEASON UP 27 UNITS!

54% Lifetime All Plays in College Basketball – 3% ROI

38% Lifetime UFC On All Plays 3% ROI

62% 2022 March Madness College Basketball Plays at 30% ROI!!!

NFL Week 10 Sunday Funday Plays – Sports Betting

By
Kiev O'Neil
-

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To get Kiev’s premium winners, and to support his hard work at The OddsBreakers, please Click here to get his no obligation membership packages!!!   We believe in getting the best of the number and it is the only way that we do business!

146-123-6 up 11 units in 2023 MLB!

63% for 2022/2023 NBA sides and totals!   22-13 up 6.5 units.  14% ROI

55% All Time NFL Sides, Teasers, Parlays, Props and Totals!  5.21% ROI

56% 2022/2023 NFL Season 136-109-11 in Sides/Totals/Teasers/Season props up 38.5U

55% All Time College Football Sides, Teasers, Parlays, Props and Totals!  4.75% ROI

63% FOR 2022 COLLEGE BOWL SEASON UP 27 UNITS!

54% Lifetime All Plays in College Basketball – 3% ROI

38% Lifetime UFC On All Plays 3% ROI

62% 2022 March Madness College Basketball Plays at 30% ROI!!!

Browns vs Ravens -6.5 O/U 38

There is something different about this Ravens team this year.   Maybe it’s the offensive coordinator Todd Monkin?   Maybe it’s the skill positions?   Maybe it’s the fact that they are finally healthy mid-season.  How bout, all of the above!   This Ravens team is fierce and they are moving the ball with efficiency.   The Ravens rank number one is rush EPA.   Now you might think that that could be nullified by a browns defense ranking 7th in opponent rush EPA, but many of these yards are from the quarterback which we all know that Lamar is very hard to stop.   Now in a perfect world, I might like the Browns at this number, but there are four massive red flags here.   First, Browns quarterback DeShawn Watson hasn’t played much this year, and now he has to face the number 1 defense in the league.  Second of all, the Browns have cluster injuries to their offensive line losing both starting tackles now with Jedrick Wills joining Jack Conklin on the IR.  Dawan Jones is also out this game as well.  I do not know how this offensive line will get push today even if Watson isn’t stuck throwing the rock all day.  The final red flag is the coaching mismatch.  John Harbaugh is heads and tails better than Kevin Stefanski, and he has proven that going 6-2 ATS over the last eight head to head games vs Cleveland.   Finally, the Ravens have a massive 1.4 net yards per play advantage over the Browns.   If they do not turn the ball over, this game could get ugly.  I like the value here.

Ravens -6.5 – 2.5 stars

Teaser:   Patriots to +8 with the Vikings to +8.5 – 3 stars.   Patriots in a do or die type situation.   They should at least keep up if not win this game vs a below average Colts team.   The Saints do not blow anyone out and you saw that last week getting a 5-0 turnover margin vs the Bears while only winning by 7 points.   

NFL Week 10 Sharp Money Movement

By
Kiev O'Neil
-

As Of Wednesday at 1PM 

Sharp Money On:

  • Panthers +4 to +3.5 – 59% tickets and 87% of the money.
  • Lions PK to -3 at the Chargers – 95% tickets and 99% of the money.

Sharp Totals:

  • Giants vs Cowboys under 41.5 to 38.5 – 70% tickets and 91% of the money.
  • Jets vs Raiders under 37.5 to 36 – 97% tickets and 98% of the money.

College Football Week 11 Sharp money Movement

By
Kiev O'Neil
-

As Of Wednesday at 1PM 

Sharp Money On:

  • Louisville -17 to -20 hosting Virginia – 86% tickets and 89% of the money.
  • Arizona -7 to -10.5 at Colorado – 60% tickets and 83% of the money.
  • Rutgers +4 to +1 at Iowa – 47% tickets and 66% of the money.
  • Miami +15 to +13.5 at Florida State – 29% tickets and 71% of the money.
  • Oregon State -19.5 to -21.5 hosting Stanford – 70% tickets and 86% of the money.

Sharp Totals:

  • Southern Miss at Louisiana under 59.5 to 54 – 23% tickets and 55% of the money.
  • Wyoming vs UNLV over 49.5 to 51 – 50% tickets and 97% of the money.
  • App State vs Georgia State over 60 to 60.5 – 60% tickets and 83% of the money.
  • Oklahoma State at UCF over 61.5 to 64 – 57% tickets and 89% of the money.
  • Utah vs Washington under 55.5 to 53.5 – 64% tickets and 83% of the money.

College Football Saturday Super Plays – Sports Betting

By
Kiev O'Neil
-

You can bet these lines right here!  https://mediaserver.betmgmpartners.com/renderBanner.do?zoneId=1702979

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To get Kiev’s premium winners, and to support his hard work at The OddsBreakers, please Click here to get his no obligation membership packages!!!   We believe in getting the best of the number and it is the only way that we do business!

146-123-6 up 11 units in 2023 MLB!

63% for 2022/2023 NBA sides and totals!   22-13 up 6.5 units.  14% ROI

55% All Time NFL Sides, Teasers, Parlays, Props and Totals!  5.21% ROI

56% 2022/2023 NFL Season 136-109-11 in Sides/Totals/Teasers/Season props up 38.5U

55% All Time College Football Sides, Teasers, Parlays, Props and Totals!  4.75% ROI

63% FOR 2022 COLLEGE BOWL SEASON UP 27 UNITS!

54% Lifetime All Plays in College Basketball – 3% ROI

38% Lifetime UFC On All Plays 3% ROI

62% 2022 March Madness College Basketball Plays at 30% ROI!!!

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Michigan vs Penn State +4.5 O/U 44.5

This is the best game of the weekend.   The total is right where it belongs and I have been eyeing this spot up for a while.  Penn State has been called a bully.  That certainly is true, but does that mean that Michigan isn’t a bully?   I think not.   Michigan has feasted on the easiest schedule in the Big 10.   This has helped them pad their stats as well as bolster their rankings.   Penn State’s schedule has been easy as well, but they had at least played West Virginia and Ohio State.  Now I will say that I do have Michigan as the best and most complete team in college football, but does that mean that Penn State is over six points worse?  I think not.  Penn State is a top 10 team, and they rank number 1 in defense right ahead of Michigan at number two.  Michigan has an offensive yards per play advantage over Penn State at 6.8 to 5.2, but how much of that is baked into the fact that they didn’t play Ohio State?  I think a decent amount.  Michigan ranks 132nd in Tempo.  Does that give anyone confidence that they can cover at Penn State by margin?   Not really.  Michigan’s offensive line will struggle against Penn State’s defense.  They won’t be able to pass as efficiently as they have now facing the number one defense in opponent passing success rate.  Lastly, the Wolverines are full of distractions with spy-gate 2.0.  I think that could only hurt this team.  I see a three point game but I also think that Penn State can win it.   Take the Points and sprinkle the ML.

Penn State +4.5 – 2.5 stars and sprinkle ML

Appalachian State vs Georgia State -2 O/U 60.5

I think that there is a good reason why App State isn’t a favorite here.   They just are not as good as they have been in the past.   Losing at Old Dominion and only beating Monroe by 1 point is very telling.  The other telling thing is that Georgia State is a competitive team this year in the Sun Belt.   They aren’t great at anything but they aren’t terrible at anything either minus the pass.  That is a red flag.    Georgia State ranks 117th in defensive success rate against the pass while App state ranks 15 in passing play success rate.  I think they score some points.  Now Appalachian state thrives on passing the ball which you may think gives them an advantage, but on the other side of things, App State’s run game is terrible on both sides of the ball.  The Mountaineers rank 90th in offensive rushing success rate and a horrible 113th on defense.   They give up 5.5 rushing yards per attempt.  The Panthers however rank 33rd in yards per rush at 4.84 with big thanks to their QB Darren Grainger who loves to get chunk yards with his legs.  I see both teams scoring a lot of points against each others weaknesses.  Take the over.  Both teams rank in the top 26 in offensive explosiveness.   They also both rank 105th or worse in defensive explosiveness.  I see a ton of points here.

Over 60.5 – 2 stars

 

Pokes/Rebels: Late Night NCAAF

By
Eric Rocco
-

Wyoming at UNLV -3 O/U 49.5, 10:45pm ET

If you read my article last Friday, one would assume I am back on the Cowboys with those crazy Friday night trends. Well, what happens in life when you assume? I have learned in my later years you make an a** out of yourself. So, your assumption would be incorrect. UNLV is a different animal. Rebels head coach Barry Odom in his first year at UNLV has resurrected this institution. Sporting a 7-2 SU record, with losses to conference leader Fresno St (also defending conference champs) and a 4 TD defeat to #1 ranked Michigan. Also, more importantly since we gamble, yes, it’s what we do, 8-1 ATS. These boys bring it every week. The only concern would be it’s their first Friday night game of the season, so we have no real history to go off this year. Yet I believe what cancels that out is, it’s their first home game since Oct 21st, and only 2nd home game since September! How, don’t ask me, scheduling at its finest. I do expect the Rebels to show up with high intensity for this game with their sights set on a conference championship (yes, with a little help), and possibly a New Years Six bowl game. Each game is GIGANTIC all the way out, but landing coach Bohl’s Pokes on a Friday night as we have learned is not a good thing. He always has his boys ready to roll for these primetime games. Again, canceling that out, would be it’s on the road where he has historically struggled, back-to-back Fridays, coming off a win and playing a team with a distinct talent advantage. All combine for a UNLV win and cover.

Let’s talk about some X’s and O’s. We know UNLV can run the football superbly well, hence their 7-2 record, but I think Maiva complements this offense perfectly with his ability to escape the pocket and throw the ball down the field. He is averaging 8.8 YPA, and 12.8 yards per completion. Combined with his targets having an enormous height advantage, big plays could be at his disposal all night Friday. He is 6-1 as their starter, and has 10 TD’s-4 INT’s this season, with 2 of the picks versus Fresno late. With all that said, still expect UNLV to run the ball down their throat for most of this game. Averaging 191 rushing yards per game will bode well facing a Wyoming defense giving up 4.9 yards per rush and 175y per game. UNLV has been very good on 3rd down in 2023, converting at 52% ranking them 6th in the country. Again, facing a defense that gives up 44% on 3rd down, even after last week’s defense stopping CSU to 0/10 on 3rd down could mean a distinct time of possession advantage to UNLV.

Now how to stop the Cowboys? UNLV has been very good against the run in 2023, yes they have had their moments, but their #1 goal Friday night is to stop Harrison Waylee. Which will put the ball in Andrew Peasley’s hands, who is one bad decision away from an INT at any time. UNLV defense ranks 10th in the country at INTs per game at 1.3. Getting him in 3rd and longs, where I foresee them being a lot throughout the night, could mean 3 and outs, or even better, turnovers!

The main concern for UNLV is their inability to covert TDs in the red zone, but this is where the big plays will come into play. The Runnin Rebels had three TD’s last week vs New Mexico of 30 yards or more, 1 the week before versus Fresno St and three versus Nevada 4 games back.

Don’t sweat the steam coming in on Wyoming, the public sees the trends, the public largely backed Wyoming last week and couldn’t resist taking them again this week getting 5/6 points. We will take UNLV tonight minus the 3, for a unit upgrade!

UNLV -3 (BetMGM -110) to win 2u

College Football Week 10 Video Play – Sports Betting

By
Kiev O'Neil
-

You can bet these lines right here!  https://mediaserver.betmgmpartners.com/renderBanner.do?zoneId=1702979

USE PROMO CODE Football2023 TO GET $50 OFF EVERY FOOTBALL PACKAGE AND $50 OFF EVERY MONTHLY MEMBERSHIP FOR THE FIRST MONTH!  Click Here:  https://theoddsbreakers.com/premium-plays/
Offer expires December 17th 2023

Follow our FREE PICKS telegram channel:  https://t.me/TheOddsBreakersFreePicks

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To get Kiev’s premium winners, and to support his hard work at The OddsBreakers, please Click here to get his no obligation membership packages!!!   We believe in getting the best of the number and it is the only way that we do business!

146-123-6 up 11 units in 2023 MLB!

63% for 2022/2023 NBA sides and totals!   22-13 up 6.5 units.  14% ROI

55% All Time NFL Sides, Teasers, Parlays, Props and Totals!  5.21% ROI

56% 2022/2023 NFL Season 136-109-11 in Sides/Totals/Teasers/Season props up 38.5U

55% All Time College Football Sides, Teasers, Parlays, Props and Totals!  4.75% ROI

63% FOR 2022 COLLEGE BOWL SEASON UP 27 UNITS!

54% Lifetime All Plays in College Basketball – 3% ROI

38% Lifetime UFC On All Plays 3% ROI

62% 2022 March Madness College Basketball Plays at 30% ROI!!!

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College Basketball Free Play – Sam Houston Isn’t Winning This Battle

By
Shawn Knoche
-

We’re back with our first college basketball article of the season. So far this season we are up 2.25 Units on CBB at 5-3. I think my early season process is dialed in as we look to exploit some funky line issues as we did last night with Ohio.

My free play features the Utah Valley Wolverines (1-0) traveling to take on the Sam Houston Bearkats (1-0) The line sits at Sam Houston -7.5 with the Over/Under checking in at 141.

Utah Valley comes in to the game featuring almost an entirely rebuilt roster with only four returning players. What they brought in through the portal however could be one of the best group of leftovers from other college programs in the country of any Mid-Major. They struggled with interior defense in their tune up game against Carroll MT winning 81-73. However, they showed a lot of skill on offense led by Southern Utah transfer point guard Drake Allen. He started every game last year for SUU and is a possible all-conference candidate. Sam Houston got locked in a defensive battle with Pacific to open the season coming out victorious 64-57. They got to the free throw line 33 times compared to Pacific only getting there 7 times. I don’t expect the same discrepancy tonight. Sam Houston is also trying to replace its top scoring options as their two biggest threats have moved on. Other major change is the coach at Utah Valley State as the “Mad Man” Mark Madsen has moved onto Cal and is replaced by top internal assistant Todd Phillips. I expect Todd to pick things up right where Madsen left off as he has a JUCO title under his belt at Salt Lake CC.

For me this is all about a whole bunch of change. It’s going to take a bit for both of these teams to work the wrinkles out. That being said I think Utah Valley has brought in some really strong talent with Allen and BYU transfer Tanner Toolson who dumped in 25 points in the opener. Add in, Osiris Grady a 6’8″ four-star recruit and I think the talent leader is actually the dog here. If they are more cohesive on defense tonight I think they can cover the spread and actually should be considered a live dog with sprinkle potential. This line has been falling since I got it at +8.5 this morning and I expect it gets lower by game-time.

Take Utah Valley +7.5 for 2 Units.

NFL Week 10 Thursday Night Football TikTok Prop Play (14-4 so far)

By
Kiev O'Neil
-
@theoddsbreakers

#sportsbetting #props #tiktokbetting #freepicks #freeplays #Thursdaynightfootball #panthers #Bears

♬ Ugly Duckling – Official Sound Studio

Link to wagering on our Bet:  https://mediaserver.betmgmpartners.com/renderBanner.do?zoneId=1702979

USE PROMO CODE Football2023 TO GET $50 OFF EVERY FOOTBALL PACKAGE AND $50 OFF EVERY MONTHLY MEMBERSHIP FOR THE FIRST MONTH!  Click Here:  https://theoddsbreakers.com/premium-plays/
Offer expires December 17th 2023

Follow our FREE PICKS telegram channel:  https://t.me/TheOddsBreakersFreePicks

Follow Kiev O’Neil’s NEW personal FREE PICKS telegram Channel:  https://t.me/KievONeil

To get Kiev’s premium winners, and to support his hard work at The OddsBreakers, please Click here to get his no obligation membership packages!!!   We believe in getting the best of the number and it is the only way that we do business!

146-123-6 up 11 units in 2023 MLB!

63% for 2022/2023 NBA sides and totals!   22-13 up 6.5 units.  14% ROI

55% All Time NFL Sides, Teasers, Parlays, Props and Totals!  5.21% ROI

56% 2022/2023 NFL Season 136-109-11 in Sides/Totals/Teasers/Season props up 38.5U

55% All Time College Football Sides, Teasers, Parlays, Props and Totals!  4.75% ROI

63% FOR 2022 COLLEGE BOWL SEASON UP 27 UNITS!

54% Lifetime All Plays in College Basketball – 3% ROI

38% Lifetime UFC On All Plays 3% ROI

62% 2022 March Madness College Basketball Plays at 30% ROI!!!

If you want to take ownership of your health, try AG1 and get a FREE 1-year supply of Vitamin D AND 5 Free AG1 Travel Packs with your first purchase. Go to drinkAG1.com/oddsbreakers

 

www.TheOddsBreakers.com

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