The Saints out-gained the Jaguars 407 to 330 yet lost 31-24. They won the turnover battle at 2-1 but terrible red zone play from Derek Carr and some pass catchers got the Saints.
The Colts out-gained the Browns 456 to 316 yet lost 39-38. A 4-2 turnover ratio and massively biased officiating from Ron Torbert got the the Colts bad. About 14 point swing.
The Rams out-gained the Steelers 354 to 300 yet lost 24-17. A 1-0 turnover ratio and poor red zone and special teams got the Rams.
Sam Houston out-gained FIU 410 to 331 yet lost in overtime 33-27. Equal turnovers at 1 but horrible red zone offense go the Bearkats.
Rutgers only out-gained Indiana 315 to 279 yet won 31-14. A 1-0 turnover ratio and a special teams punt block TD killed the Hoosiers.
Ohio State’s game vs Penn State was a ref show. No adjustment either way.
Cincinnati out-gained Baylor 450 to 396 yet lost 32-29. A 1-0 turnover ratio and poor special teams killed the Bearcats.
UAB out-gained Memphis 381 to 352 yet lost 45-21. A massive 4-0 turnover ratio did them in.
Akron’s yards were mainly garbage vs Bowling Green.
Louisiana Monroe’s yards were mainly garbage time.
Pitt out-gained Wake Forest 414 to 323 yet lost 21-17. They also won the turnover battle 2-0. This is very rare, but 13 penalties really hurt the Panthers.
Tennessee out-gained Alabama 404 to 358 yet lost 34-20. They won the turnover battle 2-1, but an 8-1 penalty ratio, poor special teams, and a second half choke killed the Vols.
North Carolina out-gained Virginia 490 to 436 yet lost at home 31-27. They won the turnover battle 2-1 yet poor field position and red zone defense hurt the Tar Heels.
Most of Texas Tech’s yards were garbage to no adjustment in the BYU game.
ASU outgained Washington 341 to 288 yet lost 15-7. They won the turnover battle 3-1, but poor plus side of the field execution hurt the Sun Devils.
Key Injuries:
QB Grayson McCall from Coastal Carolina hurt lower body. Is day to day.
QB Quinn Evers left the Texas game with an injury to his shoulder. Could be bad.
QB Tyler Van Dyke didn’t play for Miami after having his knee drained. Day to day.
Bye Weeks: none
Key Injuries:
Waiver Wire:
Non-Starters trending up for week 9:
Busts:
Nasty Sleeper – Marquez Valdez Scantling vs Denver’s defense. I think they might actually try and guard Kelce today.
On this week’s episode of Expected Bets For, @FrancoTheBanker, @gretzkybetzkys and I break down the games on October 24th and offer our best bets.
Topics:
Any feedback is encouraged whether it’s positive or critical so please give it a listen and let me know what you think!
We have a great show for you today! First, Kiev recaps the weekend in college and NFL football with some reactions and some thoughts. Next, Kiev talks about the good the bad and the ugly in sports from last weekend. Then, we get into come college and NFL football misleading final scores and betting spots as well as a Free Play for college football week 9. Finally, Dave is back as we talk some fantasy football Week 8 with key injuries, waivers, booms and busts. Should you have any questions for the podcast, or games that you want us to cap during our shows, please message us at Info@TheOddsBreakers.com. Have a wonderful week!
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We only have one game taking place across the NHL tonight. I’ll break down the lone matchup along with my best bets and a few player props to take a look at.
Key Matchups:
Montreal Canadiens @ Buffalo Sabres
| Team | Opening ML | Current ML | Spread | Total |
| Montreal Canadiens | +160 | +160 | +1.5 (-148) | o6.5 (-125) |
| Buffalo Sabres | -192 | -192 | -1.5 (+124) | u6.5 (+105) |
After losing the the New York Islanders on their opening night, the Sabres got their revenge on Saturday defeating them 3-1. Buffalo has had an up-and-down start to the season going 2-3. After ranking 3rd in GF/GP last season averaging 3.57, the Sabres have only averaged 2.40 GF/GP through the first five games. Their Power Play has been one of the worst in the League converting at a rate of just 5.6%. However, their Pebnalty Kill has been a bright spot for them ranking 5th (94.7%).
Montreal is also coming off a victory on Saturday where they defeated the Washington Capitals 3-2 in OT. They’ve been playing well after losing their first game of the year against Toronto taking points in three of their four games. After scoring 5 goals in that game against Toronto, the Canadiens have averaged just 2.67 goals in their last three contests.
Goalies:
Picks:
Player Props to Target:
Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting.
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Packers vs Broncos +1 O/U O/U 45
In what world do we live in where the Broncos are at almost pick-em against an almost average team? Look, I know that Jordan love is bad and all, but at least he has a team around him. The Broncos rank 32nd on defense in rushing yards per attempt at 5.6 and 30th in defensive rush EPA. The Packers should be able to just hand the ball of to AJ Dillon. Let’s also not forget that Aaron Jones is expected to play today. The Packers also have the edge in yards per point ranking 2nd to Denver’s 10th. Now, from a passing aspect of the game, the Broncos rank dead last in passing yards per attempt at 8.2. Their secondary is weak and Jordan Love ranks number one in intended air yards. With Christian Watson healthy, I think that Green Bay has some explosive plays today. Now the packers defense is quite average giving up 5.1 yards per play, but Denver gives up a massive 7 yards per play and 13.2 yards per point. I think after the bye here, Green Bay gets the W.
Packers -1 – 2.5 stars
Teaser: Refuse to lose teaser is 5-1. Colts to +9 with the Giant to +9 – 3 stars. Even with Watson back, this browns team doesn’t have an efficient offense. The Colts should be able to hang. The Giants and the Commies always play close.
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Kamaru Usman vs Khamzat Chimaev -340
This has the makings of an amazing fight in Abu Dabi. Being half way around the world, keep in mind that the main card starts at 2PM Eastern time. Kamaru Usman is coming off the coach to sub in due to Paulo Costa not being able to make it. These fighters traditionally were Welterweight at 171, but Khamzat got too big for that weight class and had to move up to middleweight. Usman coming into this fight late is also up in weight at the 185 lb range. Looking at the side here, I believe that Khamzat eventually wins based on his hunger, his strength and his amazing skills, but I do not think it will be quite as easy as this number is telling us. Usman has been in the past a boring fighter who knows how t play defense and stall holding fighters against the cage. In his only two losses to Leon Edwards, both fights went into or past 5 rounds. This is a three round fight and I think that it probably goes to decision. Seven out of Usman’s last 10 fights have went to decision. Khamzat on the other hand is a very bad man and he has easy wins against the lessor fighters in the UFC, but when he finally stepped up in class against Gilbert Burns (whome Usman has beaten), the fight went all three rounds. I expect both fighters to be a little bit cautious here with each other and I expect Usman’s toughness to last. Gonna take the over 2.5 rounds for plus money. You can get it right here. https://mediaserver.betmgmpartners.com/renderBanner.do?zoneId=1702979
Over 2.5 rounds +130 – 2 stars
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Pittsburgh vs Wake Forest -1 O/U 46.5
This is an interesting game to me because I do not understand this line. What give’s Pitt the right be to be at almost pick-em after how they have performed throughout the season. Now Pitt did come off the bye week benching Phil Jurcovic for Christian Veilleux, but it’s not like he’s doing all that great either with a 45% completion percentage and 3TDs with 2 picks. The Deacons rank 63rd in offensive success rate and 42nd on defense while Pittsburgh ranks 108th on offense success rate and 34th on defense respectively. The only way that Pittsburgh moves the ball is on the ground, and Wake Forest has a nice opponent 3.95 yards per rush which tells me that the Deacons can stop it. Also, last week’s win for Pittsburgh against Louisville was misleading as Pitt was out-gained 444 to 288 yards yet won the game 38-21. I think Wake gets a big home win here and Dave Clauson turns around his bad start to the season.
Wake Forest -1 – 3 stars
Penn State vs Ohio State +4 O/U 46.5
This should be the best game of the weekend. Ohio State and Penn State are top four in most of the reputable public power ratings, and this game will certainly make an impact. Let’s look at these teams side by side. Ohio State has a net yards per play advantage of .83, but Penn State beats them in offensive success rate ranking 16th to Ohio State’s 26th and defensive success rate ranking 1st to Ohio State’s 29th. A big consideration though is Strength of schedule. This easily goes to Ohio State who played at Notre Dame, and vs Maryland while Penn State’s toughest game was vs Iowa who got injured that game, and hosting West Virginia. Penn State is 6-0 ATS, but let’s face it, James Franklin is a bully who likes to put it. To be Frank, James Franklin beats on the step children of the poor and he usually loses when he faces a top 10 team. Looking at the last 10 matchups vs Ohio State, Penn State has only won once, although I must say that they have covered seven out of ten times and always as a dog. One reason why Ohio State is favore d here is that they have the better yards per play is that they are the explosive team. They have guys like Marvin Harrison Jr and Julian Flemming, although they are a bit beat up in the skill positions with Emeka Ebuka, TreVeyon Henderson and Miyan Willams banged up. Penn State likes to sit on the ball and just go for 1st downs ranking 132nd in explosive plays. They might work against bad defenses but Ohio State’s defense ranks 2nd in yards per play right behind Penn State and 3rd in yards per point. Even with Ohio State’s injuries, I believe that they can dig deep and win this game. My number is right at the spread at Ohio State by 4.75 points, but I also have noticed that Ohio State has taken some time to get into games and their first half play hasn’t really been there thus far. I am gonna do what I always do in this situation and take Penn State 1st half +2.5 and Ohio State 2nd half -1.5.
Penn State 1st half +2.5 – 2 stars
Ohio State 2nd half -2.5 – 1.5 stars
