Congrats to all Camilo Villegas backers last week at the Butterfield Bermuda Championship! We failed to hit an outright last week but did cash both of our top 20 placements, Alex Noren (+100) and Taylor Pendrith (+100).
Let’s get into this week’s storylines…
The RSM Classic is the final event of the inaugural FedExCup Fall, a group of seven tournaments played after the TOUR Championship that finalizes eligibility for the 2024 PGA TOUR Season.
The top 125 on the FedExCup Fall standings after this week will secure 2024 PGA TOUR exempt membership, earning spots in each Full-Field Event plus THE PLAYERS Championship. Those who finish Nos. 51-60 will get into two Signature Events in 2024 – The Genesis Invitational and the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am – via The Next 10. To see what finish each player needs to break into The Next 10 at the RSM Classic, you can check out this article.
Sunday: Mostly Sunny 70 F, 10 mp/h N, 62% Humidity, 4% Chance of Rain
Course/ Tournament History:
The RSM Classic, previously known as the McGladrey Classic until 2015, has been a mainstay on the PGA Tour since its debut in 2010. In 2015, the tournament also switched to the dual course setup utilizing both the Seaside and Plantation Courses at Sea Island. Between 2015 and 2019 this was the final PGA Tour event in the calendar year but was switched to the fall thereafter.
72-Hole Record:
260 – Kevin Kisner (2015), Talor Gooch (2021)
18-Hole Record :
60 – Tommy Gainey (4th round, 2012), Sebastian Munoz (1st round, 2021), Tyler McCumber (4th round, 2021)
Course Guide/ Scorecard:
Plantation Course: Thursday or Friday Round
Players this week will only see the Plantation course once this week, either on Thursday or Friday so I’m not all too concerned about this course. The Plantation Course is also not equipped with Shot Link data which limits any SG research. This course is more of Parkland style and features tree-lined fairways and water coming into play on a majority of the holes. The Plantation Course features four Par 5’s, unlike Seaside, that provide additional scoring opportunities. While distance and power haven’t been a factor in the recent tournaments here, it will play a factor on those four holes. Davis Love III recently renovated this course changing the contouring on the greens making them more difficult.
The Plantation Course at Seas Island Golf Club is a Par 72 that plays 7,060 yards. The layout features four Par 3’s, ten Par 4’s, and four Par 5’s.
The four Par 3’s range between 156 yards and 219 yards. At the 2022 RSM Classic, only one Par 3 (No. 7), had a scoring average under par.
No. 7, 156 yards, Par 3: “The island par three green, the largest green on the course, makes an inviting target. Hole locations on the large undulating green can make hitting the green only the first test to overcome for par.”
Six of the ten Par 4’s range between 350 – 400 yards. No. 10 is the shortest Par 4 listed at 327 yards with the longest being No. 9, at 481 yards.
No. 10, 327 yards, Par 4: “This short, drive-able par four provides the golfer with numerous options. The boldest player may try and go for the green, but the danger lurks with the left edge of the green guarded by the water. More conservative players face a lay-up decision to avoid the “principal’s nose” bunkers. Once negotiated, the players will find a small, gently undulating green surface.”
No. 13, 437 yards, Par 4: “With a lake on the left and out of bounds on the right, this may be the most difficult driving hole on the course. Once finding the fairway, the player will need to negotiate the large bunker guarding the right two-thirds of the green protecting this “bowl” green.
The four Par 5’s are No. 4, No. 8, No. 14, and No. 18. Only one of the Par 5’s is listed over 600 yards (No. 4). At the 2022 RSM Classic, only one Par 5 (No. 14), had a scoring average over par.
No. 8, 529 yards, Par 5: “This par five will be reachable depending on the wind. With bunkers on both sides of the fairway, players hitting good drives have the opportunity to reach the green but must negotiate a lake running the right side of the fairway. A back right hole location provides a tough shot even with a short iron.”
No. 18, 560 yards, Par 5: “This reachable par five finishing hole can provide a great finish end to the round. The water off the tee will only affect the longest hitters, but all players will have to deal with the water eventually. Players hitting to this green with second or third shots will face water lining the left side and bunkers protecting the right side. This birdie hole can give some chances at eagle.”
Featured/ Signature Hole(s): 7, 18
For a hole-by-hole overview of the course, you can click the following link.
Seaside Course: Thursday or Friday Round, Saturday and Sunday Rounds
The Seaside course is the least challenging of the two courses that players will face this week. As you can tell by the scorecard, the course is one of the shortest on the PGA Tour. Most courses on Tour use length to try and prevent the event from becoming a “birdie fest” however, Seaside relies on the wind as its main defense. Seaside is a coastal/links-style golf course that features wide fairways and greens. The tournament is won on approach shots and putting. Most of the greens are elevated with large runoff areas which emphasizes Greens in Regulation % as a key stat this week. The bermudagrass putting surface will also provide some challenge for players who aren’t particularly used to the grainy surface. Capitalizing on birdie opportunities will be placed at a premium this week based on the previous winner’s scores.
The Seaside Course at Seas Island Golf Club is a Par 70 that plays 7,005 yards. The layout features four Par 3’s, twelve Par 4’s, and two Par 5’s.
The four Par 3’s range between 179 yards and 223 yards. At the 2022 RSM Classic, only two Par 3’s (No. 6 & No. 17), had a scoring average under par.
No. 6, 179 yards, Par 3: “A downhill par three protected by a bunker in front and water behind the green, this hole is made tricky by swirling winds and requires the right club selection.”
No. 12, 223 yards, Par 3: “This long par three is at the mercy of the wind. Playing to the center of the green, regardless of pin position, will be the aim of all players. A large bunker protects the right side of the green making it attractive as players must negotiate the marsh short and left.”
Nine of the twelve Par 4’s range between 400 – 450 yards. No. 8 is the shortest Par 4 listed at 368 yards with the longest being No. 18, at 470 yards.
No. 13, 408 yards, Par 4: “This signature hole plays once again at the mercy of the wind. Players have to negotiate the marsh running the entire left side of the hole while paying attention to the three large fairway bunkers protecting the right side. An uphill shot to the green protected by a large front bunker makes birdie on this hole a bonus.”
No. 16, 407 yards, Par 4: “This signature hole requires thinking on the tee. With a tidal creek running the entire left side of the driving area, players will hit their tee shots out to the right, but the farther right one plays, the longer the second shot to the well-protected green. A bunker protects the green on the front, right side, while a false front runs the entire left side.”
The two Par 5’s are No. 7 and No. 15. Neither of the two Par 5’s are listed at over 600 yards. At the 2022 RSM Classic, both of the Par 5’s, had a scoring average under par.
No. 7, 582 yards, Par 5: “The lone par five on the front side is flanked with water to the right and dunes to the left. A good tee shot, depending on the wind, can leave a player with the opportunity to reach this green in two shots. A large fairway bunker complicated a second shot lay-up due to a large fairway bunker left and dunes to the right. The green has a substantial movement and is protected by marsh long and right.”
No. 15, 565 yards, Par 5: “Long hitters can carry the fairway bunker stretching across the left side to have a shot at reaching this par five. Players unable to carry the bunker must play right on the tee shot and lay up for a short third shot. The raised green is very well protected with bunkers left and right, and back pin positions can provide a difficult two-putt.”
Featured/ Signature Hole(s): 13, 16
For a hole-by-hole overview of the course, you can click the following link.
Key Statistics:
Strokes Gained: Approach
Strokes Gained: Tee to Green
Strokes Gained: Putting (Bermuda)
Par 4 Scoring: 400 – 450 Yards
Par 5 Scoring: 550 – 600 Yards
Proximity: 125 – 150 Yards
Driving Accuracy
Birdies or Better Gained
Comparable Courses and Event History
The Field/ Odds:
There will be 156 players competing in this year’s RSM Classic. Only two of the world’s top twenty players are in the field. Here are the current favorites in this week’s event:
Ludvig Aberg (+1400) missed the cut in his debut at this event last year. In his three starts on the FedExCup Fall Swing, Aberg has finished T2 (Sanderson Farms Championship), T13 (Shriners Children’s Open), and T10 (World Wide Technology Championship).
Brian Harman (+1600) will tee it up for the first time since the TOUR Championship. He finished tied for second at the RSM Classic last year. In addition to that, he also has two other top-10 finishes at Sea Island.
Russell Henley (+1800) will tee it up for the first time since the TOUR Championship where he finished T14. In addition to that event, Henley had finished inside the top 20 in each of his last four tournaments. Last year at the RSM Classic, he finished T22. In his eight appearances at Sea Island, Henley has three top-10 finishes.
Cameron Young (+1800) finished T54 at the World Wide Technology Championship in his last start. In his debut at Sea Island last year, Young finished T29.
Corey Conners (+1800) will tee it up for the first time since the TOUR Championship. He’s played well here in the past with three top-25 finishes in his last three appearances at the RSM Classic.
Previous Winners in the Field:
Adam Svensson (’22), Robert Streb (’20, ’14), Tyler Duncan (’19), Austin Cook (’17), Mackenzie Hughes (’16), Kevin Kisner (’15), Chris Kirk (’13), Ben Crane (’11),
Notable Withdraws:
David Lipsky, Nicolai Hojgaard, Aaron Rai, Davis Riley, Geoff Ogilvy, Chad Ramey
Residents of St. Simons Island, Georgia:
Brian Harman, Davis Love III, Zach Johnson, Harris English, Keith Mitchell and Patton Kizzire
To see the most up-to-date odds, you can click the following link.
To see the full field for this event and how they qualified, you can click the following link.
Horses for Courses:
RSM Classic
RSM Classic
RSM Classic
RSM Classic
RSM Classic
Sea Island Golf Club
Sea Island Golf Club
Sea Island Golf Club
Sea Island Golf Club
Sea Island Golf Club
2022
2021
2020
2019
2018
Webb Simpson
MC
T8
T37
2
3
Corey Conners
–
T22
T10
–
T23
Taylor Pendrith
T15
T26
–
–
–
Matthew NeSmith
MC
T29
T15
T14
–
Alexander Noren
–
MC
T18
T10
–
William Gordon
T15
–
MC
T10
–
Donkeys for Courses:
“Horses for Courses” is a phrase that is widely used and describes the best course/tournament fits. These are players that have had success at the particular course/event. “Donkeys for Courses” is something I came up with that highlights the players who have struggled at a specific course/tournament.
RSM Classic
RSM Classic
RSM Classic
RSM Classic
RSM Classic
Sea Island Golf Club
Sea Island Golf Club
Sea Island Golf Club
Sea Island Golf Club
Sea Island Golf Club
2022
2021
2020
2019
2018
Dylan Frittelli
MC
MC
MC
T35
–
Davis Thompson
MC
MC
MC
T23
–
Michael Gligic
MC
T29
MC
MC
–
Kevin Tway
MC
MC
MC
–
–
Martin Trainer
T54
MC
MC
–
MC
Sam Ryder
MC
MC
MC
MC
MC
Chad Ramey
MC
MC
–
–
–
Scott Harrington
MC
–
MC
T43
–
Justin Lower
MC
MC
–
–
–
Martin Laird
–
–
MC
MC
–
Richy Werenski
MC
MC
MC
–
T15
Previous Winners Scores & Prices:
2022: Adam Svensson (-19)
Price: 150-1
2021: Talor Gooch (-22)
Price: 40-1
2020: Robert Streb (-19)
Price: 350-1
2019: Tyler Duncan (-19)
Price: 200-1
2018: Charles Howell III (-19)
Price: 50-1
Facts & Figures:
Seven of the last 13 winners had achieved a T7 or better result at either the RBC Heritage (Hilton Head) or the Sony Open (Waialae Country Club) at some point in their career before their win at The RSM.
Four of the last seven winners had recorded a T6 or better in one of their last eight starts on the PGA TOUR before winning here.
Three of the last four winners have been first-time winners on the PGA TOUR.
All of these stats were provided by Geoffrey Ulrich. You can check out his article on the RSM Classic here.
Previous Winners Incoming Form (Last 5 Starts):
2022: Adam Svensson
T39 – Cadence Bank Houston Open (PGA)
MC – World Wide Technology Championship (PGA)
T59 – ZOZO Championship (PGA)
T69 – Shriners Children’s Open (PGA)
T54 – Sanderson Farms Championship (PGA)
2021: Talor Gooch
60 – Hewlett Packard Enterprise Houston Open (PGA)
T11 – World Wide Technology Championship (PGA)
T5 – THE CJ CUP (PGA)
T11 – Shriners Children’s Open (PGA)
T4 – Fortinet Championship (PGA)
2020: Robert Streb
T55 – Bermuda Championship (PGA)
MC – Sanderson Farms Championship (PGA)
T21 – Corales Puntacana Resort & Club Championship (PGA)
MC – Safeway Open (PGA)
MC – Wyndham Championship (PGA)
2019: Tyler Duncan
T48 – Mayakoba Golf Classic (PGA)
T18 – Bermuda Championship (PGA)
MC – Houston Open (PGA)
T56 – Safeway Open (PGA)
MC – Sanderson Farms Championship (PGA)
2018: Charles Howell III
MC – Mayakoba Golf Classic (PGA)
T61 – THE CJ CUP (PGA)
T5 – CIMB Classic (PGA)
T24 – BMW Championship (PGA)
T58 – Dell Technologies Championship (PGA)
Previous Winners Finishes at Event:
2022: Adam Svensson
2021 – MC
2018 – MC
2015 – MC
2021: Talor Gooch
2020 – MC
2019 – T23
2018 – MC
2017 – MC
2020: Robert Streb
2019 – MC
2018 – T32
2017 – MC
2016 – T57
2015 – T25
2014 – WON
2019: Tyler Duncan
2018 – T74
2017 – T25
2018: Charles Howell III
2017 – MC
2016 – T13
2015 – T9
2014 – T73
2013 – T27
2012 – T7
2011 – T32
2010 – T6
Picks (Outrights):
Russell Henley (+1600) – BetMGM
Risk 0.50 to win 8.00 Units
Eric Cole (+3000) – BetMGM
Risk 0.27 to win 8.10 Units
Brendon Todd (+4500) – FanDuel
Risk 0.18 to win 8.10 Units
Taylor Pendrith (+5000) – FanDuel
Risk 0.16 to win 8.00 Units
Mackenzie Hughes (+8000) – FanDuel
Risk 0.10 to win 8.00 Units
Total Risk on Outrights: 1.21 Units
Picks (Top 20):
Alex Noren (+150) – BetMGM
Risk 1.00 to win 1.50 Units
Billy Horschel (+188) – BetMGM
Risk 1.00 to win 1.88 Units
Luke List (+188) – BetMGM
Risk 1.00 to win 1.88 Units
Total Risk on Top 20: 3.00 Units
Picks (Top 40):
Ryan Palmer (+125) – BetMGM
Risk 1.00 to win 1.25 Units
Will Gordon (+130) – BetMGM
Risk 1.00 to win 1.30 Units
Total Risk on Top 20: 2.00 Units
As always, all of my placement bets are through BetMGM as they’re one of the only books without dead-heat rules. If you’d like to bet these placements at BetMGM, you can get up to $1500 in Bonus Bets if you don’t win if you’re a first-time user.
Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting. Any feedback whether positive or negative, is always encouraged.
We have a great show for you today! First, Kiev recaps the weekend in college and NFL football with some reactions and some thoughts. Next, Kiev talks about the good the bad and the ugly in sports from last weekend. Then, we get into come college and NFL football misleading final scores and betting spots as well as a Free Play for college football week 11. Finally, Dave comes on to talk some fantasy football Week 11 with key injuries, waivers, booms and busts. Should you have any questions for the podcast, or games that you want us to cap during our shows, please message us at Info@TheOddsBreakers.com. Have a wonderful week!
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Got a Big Monday free play to kick off the college basketball week. So far this season we are now riding a six game losing streak and losing 3 flips at 6-10 and -5.65 Units. My process is fine and we’ll get back on the winning track starting tonight. We are 1-0 in our Free Play articles here at Theoddsbreakers.com.
My free play features the VMI Keydets (1-1) traveling to take on the South Carolina Gamecocks (2-0) The line sits at South Carolina -22 with the Over/Under checking in at 150.
It’s season 2 of the Lamont Paris era as he looks to build the Gamecocks into a contender in the SEC. He lost NBA prospect GG Jackson to the league, but only loses two other significant contributors in his mostly eight man rotation. Guard Meechie Johnson is their leading returning piece and the Gamecocks went as he did in 2022-2023. They also have two solid pillars in their incoming transfers, both who played a huge role in their victory over Virginia Tech on Friday. B.J. Mack is a 6’8″ 270Lb monster from Wofford who looks to dominate inside and Myles Stute is a sharp-shooting wing coming in from Vanderbilt.
VMI was one of the youngest team in all of college hoops last season and it showed as they only managed to win seven games overall and just two in the SoCon. They are still one of the youngest teams with two key seniors graduating and more incoming freshman due to some upper class move outs. In fact they had some lineups in their first two contests where five Freshman were on the floor at the same time. They are led by Brennan Watkins a junior guard who has the ability to light it up from deep.
We are only a few games in, but South Carolina has shown marked improvement this year so far. They should be a more well rounded team this season with a much stronger presence around the paint. In 2022-2023 VMI was ranked 361st out of 363 D1 teams in defensive efficiency at KenPom. The offense didn’t top 300 either and just didn’t have a way to get back in games once they fell behind.
If there’s a model for Lamont Paris teams who comes from the Bo Ryan school of basketball it is play suffocating defense, don’t turn the ball over and work the clock on offense looking for the best possible shot. They were 323rd in adjusted tempo last year with VMI checking in at 209th. This setup leads me to support a scoring model in which South Carolina gets up early and slows it down and coasts to victory through defensive triumphs. If you look at the South Carolina non-conference wins from last season and this year they are 8-2 to the under of this total at 150. Look for a game similar to what happened against USC Upstate to kickoff the year. I’ve got this one at 82-62.
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146-123-6 up 11 units in 2023 MLB!
63% for 2022/2023 NBA sides and totals! 22-13 up 6.5 units. 14% ROI
55% All Time NFL Sides, Teasers, Parlays, Props and Totals! 5.21% ROI
56% 2022/2023 NFL Season 136-109-11 in Sides/Totals/Teasers/Season props up 38.5U
55% All Time College Football Sides, Teasers, Parlays, Props and Totals! 4.75% ROI
63% FOR 2022 COLLEGE BOWL SEASON UP 27 UNITS!
54% Lifetime All Plays in College Basketball – 3% ROI
38% Lifetime UFC On All Plays 3% ROI
62% 2022 March Madness College Basketball Plays at 30% ROI!!!
USE PROMO CODE Football2023 TO GET $50 OFF EVERY FOOTBALL PACKAGE AND $50 OFF EVERY MONTHLY MEMBERSHIP FOR THE FIRST MONTH! Click Here: https://theoddsbreakers.com/premium-plays/ Offer expires December 17th 2023
To get Kiev’s premium winners, and to support his hard work at The OddsBreakers, pleaseClick here to get his no obligation membership packages!!! We believe in getting the best of the number and it is the only way that we do business!
146-123-6 up 11 units in 2023 MLB!
63% for 2022/2023 NBA sides and totals! 22-13 up 6.5 units. 14% ROI
55% All Time NFL Sides, Teasers, Parlays, Props and Totals! 5.21% ROI
56% 2022/2023 NFL Season 136-109-11 in Sides/Totals/Teasers/Season props up 38.5U
55% All Time College Football Sides, Teasers, Parlays, Props and Totals! 4.75% ROI
63% FOR 2022 COLLEGE BOWL SEASON UP 27 UNITS!
54% Lifetime All Plays in College Basketball – 3% ROI
38% Lifetime UFC On All Plays 3% ROI
62% 2022 March Madness College Basketball Plays at 30% ROI!!!
Browns vs Ravens -6.5 O/U 38
There is something different about this Ravens team this year. Maybe it’s the offensive coordinator Todd Monkin? Maybe it’s the skill positions? Maybe it’s the fact that they are finally healthy mid-season. How bout, all of the above! This Ravens team is fierce and they are moving the ball with efficiency. The Ravens rank number one is rush EPA. Now you might think that that could be nullified by a browns defense ranking 7th in opponent rush EPA, but many of these yards are from the quarterback which we all know that Lamar is very hard to stop. Now in a perfect world, I might like the Browns at this number, but there are four massive red flags here. First, Browns quarterback DeShawn Watson hasn’t played much this year, and now he has to face the number 1 defense in the league. Second of all, the Browns have cluster injuries to their offensive line losing both starting tackles now with Jedrick Wills joining Jack Conklin on the IR. Dawan Jones is also out this game as well. I do not know how this offensive line will get push today even if Watson isn’t stuck throwing the rock all day. The final red flag is the coaching mismatch. John Harbaugh is heads and tails better than Kevin Stefanski, and he has proven that going 6-2 ATS over the last eight head to head games vs Cleveland. Finally, the Ravens have a massive 1.4 net yards per play advantage over the Browns. If they do not turn the ball over, this game could get ugly. I like the value here.
Ravens -6.5 – 2.5 stars
Teaser: Patriots to +8 with the Vikings to +8.5 – 3 stars. Patriots in a do or die type situation. They should at least keep up if not win this game vs a below average Colts team. The Saints do not blow anyone out and you saw that last week getting a 5-0 turnover margin vs the Bears while only winning by 7 points.
