We went 2-1 last night with Calgary moneyline as our lone loss. We have nine games taking place across the NHL tonight. I’ll break down my best bets and a few player props to take a look at.
Picks:
[All plays are to win 1 Unit unless otherwise noted]
Same Game Parlay: Carolina Hurricanes moneyline/ Sebastian Aho over 2.5 Shots on Goal – (+109) – FanDuel
The Hurricanes face one of the worst teams in the league tonight, the San Jose Sharks. Carolina’s coming off a bad loss against Anaheim on Sunday so it should be a nice spot for them to get back on track.
Sebastian Aho has recorded more than 2.5 shots on goal twice in the first three games of the season. During that span, he averaged 2.67 shots on goal and 4.33 shot attempts per game. San Jose ranks 32nd in shots on goal allowed per game averaging 42.0. Aho also went over this number in both matchups against the Sharks last season.
Evan Bouchard over 2.5 Shots on Goal (-128) – FanDuel
Evan Bouchard has recorded more than 2.5 shots on goal in both games to start the season. During that span, he averaged 5.0 shots on goal and 8.5 shot attempts per game. Nashville ranks 14th in shots on goal allowed per game averaging 29.0. The Predators also allowed the 6th most shots on goal to Defensemen last year. In his four previous matchups against Nashville, Bouchard has gone over this number three times.
Pierre-Luc Dubois over 2.5 Shots on Goal (-122) – FanDuel
Pierre-Luc Dubois returns to Winnipeg tonight to face his former team. In the first two games of the season, Dubois has gone over this number once. During that span, he’s averaging 2.5 shots on goal and 4.5 shot attempts per game.
Winnipeg has been one of the most penalized teams to start the season meaning Los Angeles should have plenty of time on the man-advantage. With Pierre-Luc Dubois on that top Power Play, he should have an increased role tonight.
Buffalo Sabres moneyline (-125) – DraftKings
The Sabres have started the season going 0-2 losing games to both New York teams. Buffalo’s offense has been struggling to start the season only averaging 1.50 GF/GP. However, they’ll face a team tonight that should allow them the perfect chance to right the ship. As expected, the loss of Andrei Vasilevksiy has impacted the Lighting. Through their first three games, they rank 30th in GA/GP averaging 4.67.
Both of these teams haven’t been great to start the year but Buffalo’s speed up front should be able to take advantage of Tampa Bay’s defensive unit. In terms of netminders, Buffalo should also have the upper hand in this matchup. While Devon Levi hasn’t been as sharp as he was last year he’s proven he can turn things around. Jonas Johansson, who was drafted by the Sabres, has done the opposite proving he’s unreliable in net. Through his first two starts this season he has a .889 SV% and 4.09 GAA.
Late Add:
Edmonton Oilers moneyline (-135) – DraftKings
Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting.
Congrats to all Tom Kim backers at the Shriners Children’s Open last week. He was able to successfully defend his title and will look for the elusive three-peat next season.
Adam Hadwin (+160) to finish inside the top 20 was our lone winner. We finished -0.48 units on the week.
Let’s get into this week’s storylines…
The 2023 ZOZO Championship is the fourth event of the FedExCup Fall, a group of seven tournaments played after the TOUR Championship that finalizes eligibility for the 2024 PGA TOUR Season. Nos. 1-50 in the FedExCup standings through the TOUR Championship are locked in their positions while Nos. 51 and beyond carry their FedExCup points over. Nos. 51-60 through the FedExCup Fall will qualify for two Signature Events in 2024: AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am and The Genesis Invitational. The Top 125 will be exempt into all Full-Field events and THE PLAYERS next season and Nos. 126-150 will earn Korn Ferry Tour status and conditional status on TOUR next season.
Winners of events during the FedExCup Fall receive the same benefits as winners of Full-Field Events during the Regular Season.
The 5th edition ZOZO Championship takes place this week at Narashino Country Club in Japan. Despite it being the 5th edition, this will only be the fourth time it’s held at this course. In 2020, the ZOZO Championship took place in California at Sherwood Country Club due to the pandemic travel restrictions.
Keegan Bradley returns to Japan to defend his title at the ZOZO Championship. In addition to winning this event, he also won the Traveler’s Championship. This will be the first time he tees it up since the TOUR Championship.
Sungjae Im returns to action after winning the team gold medal with Si Woo Kim at the Asian Games two weeks ago. He also earned a silver medal in the individual event.
Hideki Matsuyama has not played on TOUR since he withdrew after the first round of the BMW Championship citing a back injury. He also won this event back in 2021.
Xander Schauffele, Collin Morikawa, and Rickie Fowler return to action after a disappointing trip to Rome.
The TV Schedule is also a bit strange this week with the tournament taking place overseas. so get ready for those Saturday night/ Sunday morning sweats!
The ZOZO Championship was founded in 2019 and is the first-ever event sanctioned in Japan by the PGA Tour. In its debut, Tiger Woods took home the win and captured his 82nd PGA Tour victory, tying the all-time record set by Sam Snead. In 2020, the event was held at Sherwood Country Club in California due to the COVID-19 travel restrictions. Last year, with the restrictions lifted, it was held once again at Narashino Country Club.
Narashino Country Club opened in 1965 and was designed by Kinya Fujita. While North American fans were first introduced to this course in 2019, many professional events have been held here. Three years after the course opened, it hosted the 1968 Japan PGA Championship. In 1977, the Japan Open took place here where Seve Ballesteros became the first non-Asian to win the event. Narashino Country Club was also the home to the Suntory Open on the Japan Golf Tour from 1974-1997.
72-Hole Record:
261, Tiger Woods (2019)
18-Hole Record:
62, Andrew Putnam (Second Round, 2022)
Course Guide/ Scorecard:
Accordia Golf Narashino Country Club is a Par 70 that plays 7,079 yards. The layout is a bit unusual with five Par 3’s, ten Par 4’s, and three Par 5’s. There have been two changes from last year in terms of yardage. Hole 5 has been increased from 191 yards to 205 yards and Hole 10 has been increased from 376 yards to 400 yards. This course also features the traditional Japanese setup of dual greens.
The five Par 3’s range between 141 yards and 205 yards. Last year, No. 5 and No. 16 were the only par 3’s to have a scoring average over par.
Hole No. 16 is a 183-yard par 3 that requires an accurate iron shot off the tee. The right side of the green is guarded by bunkers with the left protected by a small lake. The green slopes severely right to left feeding any shots that land short left into the water.
Most of the eleven Par 4’s range between 450-500 yards. No. 2 is the shortest listed at 368 yards with the longest being No. 4, just over 500 yards.
No. 12 is a downhill 490-yard par 4 that traditionally is played as a par 5. Off the tee, players will want to position themselves along the left side of the fairway giving themselves an easier shot into this challenging green. On the front left side, the green is protected by numerous bunkers. Depending on the pin location players will need a precise approach shot to avoid a difficult putt on this three-tiered green.
The three Par 5’s are No. 6, 14, and 18. No 14 is the only Par 5 that is listed over 600 yards. It was also the only Par 5 to have a scoring average over par last year (+0.306).
No. 14 is the longest of the Par 5’s and one of the more challenging holes on the entire course. It’s a narrow hole off the tee with tree trouble to the left and right. As players approach the green, more bunkers come into play. The green is slightly elevated sloping from the back right to the front left. If players miss on the front left side of the green, the ball will slope toward the bunker in the front.
Featured/ Signature Hole(s): 16
For a hole-by-hole overview of the course, you can click the following link.
Key Statistics:
Strokes Gained: Approach
Strokes Gained: Off the Tee
Strokes Gained: Putting (Bentgrass)
Par 3 Scoring: 175 – 200 Yards (x2)
Par 4 Scoring: 450 – 500 Yards (x4)
Par 5 Scoring: 550 – 600 Yards (x2)
Proximity: 100 – 125 Yards
Proximity: 125 – 150 Yards
Birdies or Better Gained
Comparable Courses and Event History
The Field/ Odds:
There will be 78 players competing in this year’s ZOZO CHAMPIONSHIP. Only nine of the world’s top forty players are in the field. Here are the current favorites in this week’s event:
Xander Schauffele (+700) will make his fifth appearance in the ZOZO Championship. He’s finished inside the top-10 twice before at Accordia Golf Narashino Country Club. This will be his first official start on the PGA TOUR since the TOUR Championship.
Collin Morikawa (+1200) will make his fifth appearance in the ZOZO Championship. His best finish at this event was in 2021 when he finished T7. This will be his first official start on the PGA TOUR since the TOUR Championship.
Sungjae Im (+1400) has played in this event three times before. His best finish at this event was in 2019 when he finished T3.
Previous Winners in the Field:
Keegan Bradley (’22), Hideki Matsuyama (’21)
Notable Withdraws:
None
To see the most up-to-date odds, you can click the following link.
To see the full field for this event and how they qualified, you can click the following link.
Horses for Courses:
ZOZO CHAMPIONSHIP
ZOZO CHAMPIONSHIP
ZOZO CHAMPIONSHIP
ZOZO CHAMPIONSHIP
Narashino Country Club
Narashino Country Club
Sherwood Country Club
Narashino Country Club
2022
2021
2020
2019
Cameron Champ
8
T8
Keegan Bradley
1
T7
T13
Xander Schauffele
T9
T28
T17
T10
Hideki Matsuyama
T40
1
T28
2
Donkeys for Courses:
“Horses for Courses” is a phrase that is widely used and describes the best course/tournament fits. These are the players that have had success at the particular course/event. “Donkeys for Courses” is something I came up with that highlights the players who have struggled at a specific course/tournament.
ZOZO CHAMPIONSHIP
ZOZO CHAMPIONSHIP
ZOZO CHAMPIONSHIP
ZOZO CHAMPIONSHIP
Narashino Country Club
Narashino Country Club
Sherwood Country Club
Narashino Country Club
2022
2021
2020
2019
Ryo Ishikawa
T63
T51
Shugo Imahira
78
T18
T66
T59
Previous Winners Scores & Prices:
2022: Keegan Bradley (-15) – Narashino Country Club
Price: 40-1
2021: Hideki Matsuyama (-15) – Narashino Country Club
Price: 16-1
2020: Patrick Cantlay (-23) – Sherwood Country Club
Price: 28-1
2019: Tiger Woods (-19) – Narashino Country Club
Price: 33-1
Previous Winners Incoming Form (Last 5 Starts):
2022: Keegan Bradley
T5 – Sanderson Farms Championship (PGA)
T58 – BMW Championship (PGA)
MC – FedEx St. Jude Championship (PGA)
T44 – Rocket Mortgage Classic (PGA)
MC – The Open Championship (MAJ)
2021: Hideki Matsuyama
T59 – THE CJ CUP (PGA)
T67 – Shriners Children’s Open (PGA)
T6 – Fortinet Championship (PGA)
T26 – TOUR Championship (PGA)
T46 – BMW Championship (PGA)
2020: Patrick Cantlay
T38 – THE CJ CUP (PGA)
T8 – Shriners Hospitals for Children Open (PGA)
T43 – U.S. Open (MAJ)
T12 – BMW Championship (PGA)
MC – THE NORTHERN TRUST (PGA)
2019: Tiger Woods
T37 – BMW Championship (PGA)
WD – THE NORTHERN TRUST (PGA)
MC – The Open Championship (MAJ)
T21 – U.S. Open (MAJ)
T9 – the Memorial Tournament (PGA)
Previous Winners Finishes at Event:
2022: Keegan Bradley
2021 – T7
2019 – T13
2021: Hideki Matsuyama
2020 – T28
2019 – 2
2020: Patrick Cantlay
Debut at Event
2019: Tiger Woods
Debut at Event
Picks (Outrights):
Sungjae Im (+1400) – DraftKings
Risk 0.58 to win 8.12 Units
Keegan Bradley (+2200) – DraftKings
Risk 0.37 to win 8.14 Units
Cameron Champ (+5000) – DraftKings
Risk 0.16 to win 8.00 Units
Total Risk on Outrights: 1.11 Units
Picks (Top 20):
Adam Svensson (+138) – BetMGM
Risk 1.00 to win 1.38 Units
Joel Dahmen (+200) – BetMGM
Risk 1.00 to win 2.00 Units
Total Risk on Top 20: 2.00 Units
Total Risk on the ZOZO CHAMPIONSHIP: 3.11 Units
Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting. Any feedback whether positive or negative, is always encouraged.
We have a great show for you today! First, Kiev recaps the weekend in college and NFL football with some reactions and some thoughts. Next, Kiev talks about the good the bad and the ugly in sports from last weekend. Then, we get into come college and NFL football misleading final scores and betting spots as well as a Free Play for college football week 8. Finally, Dave is back as we talk some fantasy football Week 7 with key injuries, waivers, booms and busts. Should you have any questions for the podcast, or games that you want us to cap during our shows, please message us at Info@TheOddsBreakers.com. Have a wonderful week!
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55% All Time College Football Sides, Teasers, Parlays, Props and Totals! 4.75% ROI
63% FOR 2022 COLLEGE BOWL SEASON UP 27 UNITS!
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56% 2022/2023 NFL Season 136-109-11 in Sides/Totals/Teasers/Season props up 38.5U
55% All Time College Football Sides, Teasers, Parlays, Props and Totals! 4.75% ROI
63% FOR 2022 COLLEGE BOWL SEASON UP 27 UNITS!
54% Lifetime All Plays in College Basketball – 3% ROI
38% Lifetime UFC On All Plays 3% ROI
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USC vs Notre Dame -2.5 O/U 52.5
This should be a very good game to watch. From a fan perspective, I am kind of bummed for Notre dame. Really rough schedule thus far, but from a bettor perspective, I am glad that they lost last week. USC’s defense is bad. They have given up over 100 points their last three games vs Arizona State, and Injured Colorado team and Arizona. They were lucky to get out of Tucson last Saturday. Two matchups that I like for Notre Dame is that even though Caleb Williams is the top pick of the 2024 NFL Draft, the Irish have the secondary to slow down the pass. Guys like Xavier Watts, Ben Morrison and Cam Hart will most likely be playing on Sundays. The Irish rank 9th in defensive passing success rate and 4th in opponent QBR. I also like the rushing matchup advantage for Notre Dame as USC can not stop the run ranking 69th in opponent rush EPA while not even playing a team with a pulse. USC hasn’t even played a top 50 team as of yet, and that is very concerning. Notre Dame’s strength of schedule thus far ranks 65th to USC’s 85th. Notre Dame should be able to move the ball on the ground at 5.03 yards per rush. I expect a big bounce back here for the Irish in a night game.
Notre Dame -2.5 – 2 stars
Oregon vs Washington -3 O/U 67
This might be the best game for the weekend. Before the season started I bet both of these teams to win the PAC12 at around 3.5-1 and this game will shore up who has the lead. Both of these offenses are amazing at number one and number two in success rates. Washington is a crazy 8.81 yards per play while Oregon is at 8.06. Looking at the other side of the ball, you have to give the nod to Oregon’s defense ranking 17th in success rate to Washington’s 80th. Washington give’s up five yards per play to Oregon’s four. Oregon is number one is adjusted EPA margin while Washington is 13th. I think both strength of schedule’s aren’t that far off from each other especially being that Washington played Arizona with a backup quarterback. In my opinion, this game will be won on the defensive side of the ball. I also think that Oregon has more talent as a whole than Washington does being that their recruiting has averaged 10th over the past three years to Washington’s 47th. I do not love Bo Nix on the road, but I have to take the three points here. I also lean over the total and I would take it if there wasn’t for potential rain.
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55% All Time NFL Sides, Teasers, Parlays, Props and Totals! 5.21% ROI
56% 2022/2023 NFL Season 136-109-11 in Sides/Totals/Teasers/Season props up 38.5U
55% All Time College Football Sides, Teasers, Parlays, Props and Totals! 4.75% ROI
63% FOR 2022 COLLEGE BOWL SEASON UP 27 UNITS!
54% Lifetime All Plays in College Basketball – 3% ROI
38% Lifetime UFC On All Plays 3% ROI
62% 2022 March Madness College Basketball Plays at 30% ROI!!!
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We have a great show for you today! Kiev O’Neil goes solo to go over NFL week 7. FIrst, we talk our records this year for NFL and College Football. Next, Kiev gets into NFL Week 7’s slate of games with some Free Plays and some leans in every game. After that, Kiev gives out his refuse to lose teaser that is 4-1 thus far for the 2023 season! Finally, we get into some NFL sharp money movement. Should you have any questions for the podcast for Monday, or games that you want us to cap during our shows, please message us at Info@TheOddsBreakers.com. Have a wonderful week!
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