We went 2-0 last night continuing rebounding from a terrible opening night. We have seven games taking place across the NHL tonight. I’ll break down a few key matchups along with my best bets and a few player props to take a look at.
Key Matchups:
New York Rangers @ Buffalo Sabres
Time: 7:00 PM ET
New York Rangers: 0-0-0, – Metropolitan (0-0-0 Away)
Buffalo Sabres: 0-0-0, – Atlantic (0-0-0 Home)
Team
Opening ML
Current ML
Spread
Total
New York Rangers
-125
-135
-1.5 (+185)
o6.5 (-118)
Buffalo Sabres
+105
+114
+1.5 (-225)
u6.5 (-102)
The Sabres and Rangers both start their season tonight with hopes of making the postseason. New York has qualified for the playoffs in each of the last two years while the Sabres have not made the playoffs since 2011.
The Rangers added a few notable UFAs this offseason including Blake Wheeler and Nick Bonito. They also added Jonathan Quick to fill the backup role behind Igor Shesterkin after Jaroslav Halak left. Vladimir Tarasenko and Patrick Kane are the notable losses for New York. Peter Laviolette has replaced Gerald Gallant behind the bench which should bring a more up-tempo style of play to this team from years past.
The Sabres finished one point back of the last wild-card spot in the Eastern Conference last year. Their main issues last season were their goaltending and defense. Devon Levi joined the team after finishing his season at Northeastern and assumed the starting role. In the seven games he played with the team, he had a .905 SV% and 2.94 GAA. Buffalo added Connor Clifton and Erik Johnson to help their defensive unit.
The past few meetings between these two teams have been tight with each of them requiring more than 60 minutes to settle. The Sabres offensive should provide plenty of issues for New York tonight but their defense remains questionable. Opposite of that, New York’s forward group relied on their PowerPlay for a majority of their scoring last year so they’ll need to generate more 5-v-5 chances.
Florida Panthers @ Minnesota Wild
Time: 8:00 PM ET
Florida Panthers: 0-0-0, – Atlantic (0-0-0 Away)
Minnesota Wild: 0-0-0, – Central (0-0-0 Home)
Team
Opening ML
Current ML
Spread
Total
Florida Panthers
+105
+110
+1.5 (-225)
o6.5 (-110)
Minnesota Wild
-125
-130
-1.5 (+185)
u6.5 (-110)
Florida has high expectations this season after losing the Stanley Cup finals last year. They nearly completed their incredible postseason run before eventually losing to the Golden Knights. Their core has largely remained intact but will be missing a few key pieces tonight in Brandon Montour and Aaron Ekblad. Florida’s biggest question mark is the play of Sergi Bobrovsky who was incredible in the playoffs this year but has shown in the past that his play can be very inconsistent at times.
Just like Florida, Minnesota has high expectations after losing in the first round of the playoffs last season. Kirill Kaprizov has emerged as a superstar in this league after consecutive 40-goal seasons. Minnesota will be without defenseman Jared Spurgeon tonight who’s week-to-week with an upper-body injury. He led all Wild defensemen with 34 points and was second in time on ice, averaging 21:49 per game.
Seattle Kraken @ Nashville Predators
Time: 8:00 PM ET
Seattle Kraken: 0-1-0, 7th Pacific (0-1-0 Away)
Nashville Predators: 0-1-0, 7th Central (0-1-0 Home)
Team
Opening ML
Current ML
Spread
Total
Seattle Kraken
-115
-110
+1.5 (-258)
o6 (-120)
Nashville Predators
-105
-110
-1.5 (+210)
u6 (+100)
Both these teams are coming off losses in their season openers.
Seattle lost 4-1 to the defending Stanley Cup Champion Vegas Golden Knights. They outshot Vegas in that game but couldn’t beat Adin Hill who finished with a 2.42 Goals Saved Above Expected (GSAx).
Nashville fell to the Lightning by a score of 5-3. Statistically, they had more expected goals than Tampa Bay but Juuse Saros struggled in net ending the game with a -1.08 GSAx.
These teams have faced off six times before with Seattle beating Nashville four of those times.
Picks:
[All plays are to win 1 Unit unless otherwise noted]
Philadelphia Flyers/ Columbus Blue Jackets Over 6.5 (-114) – FanDuel
Same Game Parlay: Dallas Stars moneyline/ Under 7.5 – (+100) – DraftKings
Player Props to Target:
Joel Farabee over 1.5 Shots on Goal (-150) – DraftKings
Joel Farabee has recorded more than 1.5 shots on goal in each of the last three games last season. During that span, he averaged 4.3 shots on goal and 6.0 shot attempts per game. Last season Columbus ranked 31st in shots on goal allowed per game averaging 35.4. They also allowed the most shots on goal to Left Wingers last year. He’s on the top line in addition to the PowerPlay so he should have plenty of ice time tonight. Farabee has exceeded this number six times in his seven previous matchups against the Blue Jackets.
Casey Mittelstadt over 0.5 Points (-110) – DraftKings
Casey Mittelstadt finished the season strong last year recording at least one point in his last five games. Historically he’s been great against the Rangers with points in three of his four games against them.
Jordan Kyrou over 2.5 Shots on Goal (-150) – DraftKings
Jordan Kyrou has recorded more than 2.5 shots on goal in each of the last three games last season. During that span, he averaged 4.0 shots on goal and 5.0 shot attempts per game. Kyrou is on the top line in addition to the PowerPlay so he should have plenty of ice time tonight. In his five previous matchups against the Stars, Kyrou has gone over this number each time.
Jared McCann over 2.5 Shots on Goal (-140) – DraftKings
Jared McCann has recorded more than 2.5 shots on goal in four of the last five games. In the first game of the season, McCann had five shots on goal in six shot attempts. In his previous matchup against the Predators, McCann had four shots on goal in seven shot attempts.
Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting.
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We have a great show for you today! Kyle Hunter @KyleHunterPicks from Huntersportspicks.com is back to break down some HUGE college football games! First, Kiev talks about some of the huge games this weekend. Next, Kyle comes on and the guys get right into some teams that they were wrong about in the preseason and some teams that they were correct about. Then, Kyle and Kiev talk about totals in general. After that, the guys talk about some of the biggest games in college football for week 7 with some Free plays! Finally, we get into some College Football sharp money movement. Should you have any questions for the podcast for Monday, or games that you want us to cap during our shows, please message us at Info@TheOddsBreakers.com. Have a wonderful week!
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On this week’s episode of Expected Bets For, @FrancoTheBanker, @gretzkybetzkys and I break down the three games on Opening Night and offer our best bets.
Topics:
Introduction [0:00 – 1:00]
Nashville Predators @ Tampa Bay Lightning [1:01 – 6:56]
Chicago Blackhawks @ Pittsburgh Penguins [6:57 – 15:05]
Seattle Kraken @ Vegas Golden Knights [15:06 – 21:01]
Congrats to all Luke List backers at the Sanderson Farms last week. It was an exciting finish as it came down to a five-man playoff between Luke List, Scott Stallings, Ben Griffin, Henrik Norlander, and Ludvig Aberg. The last time there was a five-man playoff on TOUR was the 2016 RSM Classic where Norlander was also a participant. List drained a 43-footer to win after he got a perfect read from Aberg’s putt. This could be the start of a trend at this event as we saw Mackenzie Hughes defeat Sepp Straka in a playoff in 2022.
Our best chance last week for an outright was Mark Hubbard (-17). He was tied for the lead on Sunday heading into 16th where he had a birdie opportunity to take the lead. Hubbard would miss that putt and go on to bogey the last two holes. Alex Smalley (+160) to finish inside the top 20 was our lone winner. We finished -0.40 units on the week.
Let’s get into this week’s storylines…
The 2022 Shriners Children’s Open is the third event of the FedExCup Fall, a group of seven tournaments played after the TOUR Championship that finalizes eligibility for the 2024 PGA TOUR Season. Nos. 1-50 in the FedExCup standings through the TOUR Championship are locked in their positions while Nos. 51 and beyond carry their FedExCup points over. Nos. 51-60 through the FedExCup Fall will qualify for two Signature Events in 2024: AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am and The Genesis Invitational. The Top 125 will be exempt into all Full-Field events and THE PLAYERS next season and Nos. 126-150 will earn Korn Ferry Tour status and conditional status on TOUR next season.
Winners of events during the FedExCup Fall receive the same benefits as winners of Full-Field Events during the Regular Season.
Tom Kim is the defending champion of the Shriners Children’s Open. He finished 24 under par last year which tied the tournament scoring record. Kim became the first player since Tiger Woods in 1996 to win twice on the PGA TOUR before turning 21 with that victory.
Si Woo Kim will make his first start on the FedExCup Fall series. Most recently he won gold at the Asian Games along with Sungjae Im. This victory was life-changing for both players as they’re now exempt from the two-year mandatory military service that is required in South Korea.
Ludvig Aberg will make his second straight TOUR start this week. Aberg was the favorite last week at the Sanderson Farms Championship where he finished T2 losing in a five-man playoff. While he is exempt through 2024 he still has plenty on the line as he is currently 135th in the FedEx Cup Standings.
Nicolai Højgaard will make his first start following a victory with the Europeans at the Ryder Cup. In his eight starts on the PGA TOUR in 2023, he had two top-10 finishes including a runner-up at the Corales Puntacana Championship.
Lexi Thompson will become the seventh woman to tee it up on the PGA TOUR. She’ll be the first woman since Brittany Lincicome in 2018 at the Barbasol Championship to play in a PGA TOUR event.
No other greens have dominator bentgrass greens. They installed new greens and fairways last year. Previously, they had A1/A4 bentgrass greens and 419 bermudagrass fairways.
Accordia Golf Narashino Country Club – Bentgrass – ZOZO Championship
Torrey Pines Golf Course (North Course) – Bentgrass .100” – Farmers Insurance Open
Augusta National Golf Club – Bentgrass .125” – Masters Tournament
TPC Craig Ranch – Bentgrass .100” – AT&T Byron Nelson
Muirfield Village Golf Club – Bentgrass .090” – the Memorial Tournament
The Shiners Children’s Open was founded in 1983 as the Panasonic Las Vegas Pro-Celebrity Classic. This event changed names throughout the years but since 2008, Shriner’s Children Hospitals has remained the official sponsor. When they took over the rights that year, TPC Summerlin also became the host course and the event has been held there every year since. Throughout the entirety of the event, it’s always been held in the Las Vegas surrounding area.
TPC Summerlin opened in 1991 and was originally designed by Booby Wood Throughout the years it’s undergone several minor renovations and in 2021, the greens and fairways were completely replaced. The previous greens were A1/A4 bentgrass and the fairways were 419 bermudagrass. Last year, the greens were changed to Dominator bentgrass, and the fairways were changed to Bandera bermudagrass. Looking at the upcoming PGA Tour schedule, this is the only course that features this unique type of putting surface. Other courses have pure bentgrass greens but none that feature this specific seed of bentgrass.
Most Wins at Event:
3, Jim Furyk (1995, 1998, 1999)
72-Hole Record (TPC Summerlin):
260, Ryan Moore (2012), Webb Simpson (2013), Sungjae Im (2021), Tom Kim (2022)
18-Hole Record (TPC Summerlin):
60, J.J. Henry (Round 1, 2013), Rod Pampling (Round 1, 2016), Patrick Cantlay (Round 3, 2022)
Course Guide/ Scorecard:
TPC Summerlin was designed by Bobby Weed with Fuzzy Zoeller as a player consultant. It is a Par 71 that plays 7,255 yards which is on the shorter side when compared to other PGA TOUR sourses. The course features four Par 3’s, eleven Par 4’s, and three Par 5’s. The three Par 5’s are where players need to score if they want to have a chance of winning this event. It’s a resort layout that’s fairly wide open allowing longer hitters to attack this course. However, as shown by past winners accuracy off the tee is more important than distance.
This is one of the easier courses on Tour as seen by the historical scoring average, we should see another winner finish around -23/-24.
The four Par 3’s range from 168 to 239 yards. Last year, hole No. 14 was the only par 3 to have a scoring average under par.
No. 17, 196 yards, Par 3: “A challenging and unnerving par-3 plays from 180 to 210 yards downhill, depending on the hole location, with the green guarded closely by a lake on the left and by bunkers on the right. Par is a good score and birdies are rare, should players need to make up ground.”
There are eleven Par 4’s at TPC Summerlin with the majority (seven) of those holes ranging between 400 and 450 yards. In terms of scoring average, the toughest Par 4 last year was No. 3 (+0.127).
No. 15, 341 yards, Par 4: “A short, drivable par-4 measuring 320 yards, which most players will attempt to reach with their tee shot. If the tee shot misses the green, an “up and down” birdie is possible, but not easy, due to the severely elevated and undulated green – which is surrounded by five bunkers that regularly attract stray tee shots.”
No. 18, 444 yards, Par 4: “A well-designed and strategic finishing hole measuring 450 yards which moves right to left off the tee. The green is protected on the left by a lake, with the hole protected by the water. An aggressive tee shot with the driver can leave the player just a short iron to a very deep green from front to back. An aggressive tee shot and second shot could lead to a one-putt birdie. Find the water and you will be lucky to make bogey.”
There are three Par 5’s on the course, No. 9, No. 13, and No. 16. All of these holes had a scoring average under par in 2022. No. 9 was the easiest par 5 on the course last year with a scoring average of 0.549 below par. Hole No. 13, was the toughest Par 5 last year due to it being the only Par 5 that measures over 600 yards.
No. 16, 560 yards, Par 5: “A relatively downhill par-5 that is reachable with two good shots. The green is guarded by water short of the green, and bunkers beyond. For scratch golfers and TOUR players, only a mid-iron will be necessary for the second shot, with a birdie almost a certainty. The scoring swings will come with balls in the water as well as aggressive second shots hit close to the pin.”
Featured/ Signature Hole(s): 15, 16, 17, 18
For a hole-by-hole overview of the course, you can click the following link.
Key Statistics:
Strokes Gained: Approach
Strokes Gained: Tee to Green
Strokes Gained: Putting (Bentgrass)
Driving Accuracy
Par 3 Scoring: 175 – 200 Yards (x2)
Par 4 Scoring: 400 – 450 Yards (x7)
Par 5 Scoring: 550 – 600 Yards (x2)
Proximity: 100 – 125 Yards
Proximity: 125 – 150 Yards
Birdies or Better Gained
Comparable Courses and Event History
The Field/ Odds:
There will be 144 players competing in this year’s Shriners Children’s Open. Only three of the world’s top forty players are in the field. This is a weaker field from last year’s event as Cantlay, Homa, and Im were the favorites. Here are the current favorites in this week’s event:
Tom Kim (+1000) won the Shriners Children’s Open in his debut last year. He struggled a bit last year as he was battling a few injuries but had a string finish. In each of the three playoff events, he finished inside the top 25. Since the TOUR Championship, he’s played twice on the DP World Tour finishing T18 at the BMW PGA Championship and T6 at the Cazoo Open de France.
Ludvig Aberg (+1200) finished T2 at the Sanderson Farms last week losing to Luke List in a five-man playoff. Before that, he had three consecutive top-10 finishes on the DP World Tour including a win at the Omega European Masters. This will be his first appearance at TPC Summerlin.
Cameron Davis (+2000) failed to qualify for the TOUR Championship. He finished 40th at the BMW Championship but had three consecutive top-10 finishes before that. In his last start, Davis finished 3rd at the Fortinet Championship. This will be his fifth appearance at the Shriners Children’s Open with his best finishing coming in 2021 (T27). Despite not cracking the top 20 in each of those four prior times, he has made the cut each time.
Si Woo Kim (+2200) will make his first start since the TOUR Championship where he finished T20. He captured his third win on the PGA TOUR Earlier this year at the Sony Open in Hawaii. Outside of that, he only had four other top-10 finishes. This will be his seventh appearance at the Shriners Children’s Open with his best finishes coming in 2020 and 2022 (T8).
J.J. Spaun (+3000) has finished inside the top 15 in three of his six appearances at TPC Summerlin. He enters this week off two top-25 finishes (T11 – Fortinet, T24 – FedEx St. Jude Championship).
Previous Winners in the Field:
Tom Kim (’22), Martin Laird (’20, ’09), Ben Martin (’14), Webb Simpson (’13), Ryan Moore (’12)
Notable Withdraws:
Trey Mullinax
To see the most up-to-date odds, you can click the following link.
To see the full field for this event and how they qualified, you can click the following link.
Horses for Courses:
Shriners Children’s Open
Shriners Children’s Open
Shriners Hospitals for Children Open
Shriners Hospitals for Children Open
Shriners Hospitals for Children Open
TPC Summerlin
TPC Summerlin
TPC Summerlin
TPC Summerlin
TPC Summerlin
2022
2021
2020
2019
2018
Tom Kim
1
S.H. Kim
T4
Matthew NeSmith
T2
T14
T8
T18
Harry Hall
T15
T8
Hayden Buckley
T20
T8
Adam Hadwin
T10
T6
T34
T4
Chad Ramey
T28
T14
Matt Wallace
T28
T14
Donkeys for Courses:
“Horses for Courses” is a phrase that is widely used and describes the best course/tournament fits. These are the players that have had success at the particular course/event. “Donkeys for Courses” is something I came up with that highlights the players who have struggled at a specific course/tournament.
Shriners Children’s Open
Shriners Children’s Open
Shriners Hospitals for Children Open
Shriners Hospitals for Children Open
Shriners Hospitals for Children Open
TPC Summerlin
TPC Summerlin
TPC Summerlin
TPC Summerlin
TPC Summerlin
2022
2021
2020
2019
2018
Garrick Higgo
MC
MC
Cameron Champ
MC
MC
MC
T28
Jason Dufner
MC
MC
MC
Adam Svensson
T69
MC
MC
Scott Harrington
MC
MC
Michael Kim
MC
MC
MC
MC
Satoshi Kodaira
MC
MC
T41
MJ Daffue
MC
MC
Ryan Armour
MC
MC
MC
Tyler Duncan
T72
MC
MC
Zac Blair
MC
MC
MC
Martin Trainer
MC
MC
MC
MC
Previous Winners Scores & Prices:
2022: Tom Kim (-24)
Price: 25-1
2021: Sungjae Im (-24)
Price: 33-1
2020: Martin Laird (-23)
Price: 225-1
2019: Kevin Na (-23)
Price: 70-1
2018: Bryson DeChambeau (-21)
Price: 14-1
Previous Winners Incoming Form (Last 5 Starts):
2022: Tom Kim
T4 – Dunlop Phoenix Tournament (JPN)
T54 – BMW Championship (PGA)
T13 – FedEx St. Jude Championship (PGA)
1 – Wyndham Championship (PGA)
7 – Rocket Mortgage Classic (PGA)
2021: Sungjae Im
T31 – Sanderson Farms Championship (PGA)
T20 – TOUR Championship (PGA)
3 – BMW Championship (PGA)
T16 – THE NORTHERN TRUST (PGA)
T24 – Wyndham Championship (PGA)
2020: Martin Laird
T28 – Sanderson Farms Championship (PGA)
T65 – Corales Puntacana Resort & Club Championship (PGA)
MC – Safeway Open (PGA)
65 – Lincoln Land Championship (KFT)
T6 – Puerto Rico Open (PGA)
2019: Kevin Na
MC – Safeway Open (PGA)
T14 – A Military Tribute (PGA)
T77 – THE NORTHERN TRUST (PGA)
T43 – WGC-FedEx St. Jude Invitational (PGA)
WD – 3M Open (PGA)
2018: Bryson DeChambeau
19 – TOUR Championship (PGA)
T19 – BMW Championship (PGA)
1 – Dell Technologies Championship (PGA)
1 – THE NORTHERN TRUST (PGA)
MC – PGA Championship (PGA)
Previous Winners Finishes at Event:
2022: Tom Kim
Debut at Event
2021: Sungjae Im
2020 – T13
2018 – T15
2020: Martin Laird
2019 – T48
2018 – T28
2017 – MC
2016 – T27
2015 – T43
2014 – T18
2013 – MC
2011 – T40
2010 – T2
2009 – 1
2008 – T47
2019: Kevin Na
2018 – MC
2016 – MC
2015 – T2
2013 – MC
2011 – T22
2010 – 1
2009 – T45
2007 – T15
2006 – T19
2005 – T24
2018: Bryson DeChambeau
2017 – T7
2016 – T36
Picks (Outrights):
Si Woo Kim (+2200) – DraftKings
Risk 0.37 to win 8.14 Units
Adam Schenk (+3500) – DraftKings
Risk 0.23 to win 8.05 Units
Tom Hoge (+3500) – DraftKings
Risk 0.23 to win 8.05 Units
Davis Thompson (+5000) – Caesars
Risk 0.16 to win 8.00 Units
Matt Wallace (+9000) – Caesars
Risk 0.09 to win 8.10 Units
Total Risk on Outrights: 1.08 Units
Picks (Top 20):
Andrew Putnam (+160) – BetMGM
Risk 1.00 to win 1.60 Units
Adam Hadwin (+160) – BetMGM
Risk 1.00 to win 1.60 Units
Total Risk on Top 20: 2.00 Units
Total Risk on the Shriners Children’s Open: 3.08 Units
Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting. Any feedback whether positive or negative, is always encouraged.
