We have a HUGE show for you today! Joey Vamvakidis @JoeyVam_ joins us to talk come college football week 4! First, Kiev talks about some promo’s and a format change. Next, Joey comes on and the guys get right into who Joey might like in the college football playoffs thus far. Then, the guys get into some huge games such as Colorado vs Oregon, Ohio State vs Notre Dame, Florida State vs Clemson and Ole Miss vs Alabama with some FREE PLAYS! After that, Joey and Kiev talk some more random games on the slate. Finally, we talk some sharp money movement for week 4! Should you have any questions for the podcast for Monday, or games that you want us to cap during our shows, please message us at Info@TheOddsBreakers.com. Have a wonderful week!
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Boston College’s yards were garbage, but they covered easily anyways.
Penn State out-gained Illinois only 383 to 354 yet won 30-13. A 5-0 turnover ratio smoked the Illini.
Iowa State out-gained Ohio 271 to 241 yet lost 10-7. A 2-0 turnover ratio killed the Clones.
Georgia Southern out-gained Wisconsin 455-451 yet lost 35-14. A 6-0 turnover ratio killed the Eagles.
UMASS out-gained Eastern Michigan 464 t0 371 yet lost 19-17. A 4-1 turnover ratio did them in bad.
Virginia Tech’s yards were mainly garbage.
Tennessee out-gained Florida 387 to 349 yet lost 29-16. Some of this was garbage yards, but poor plus side of the field and a 1-0 turnover ratio hurt the Vols.
Cincinnati out-gained Miami Ohio 538 to 358 yet lost 31-24. Equal 2-2 turnover ratio but ten penalties and horrible red zone defense and offense hurt the Bearcats.
Arkansas out-gained BYU 424 to 281 yet lost 38-31. A 2-1 turnover ratio and 14 penalties killed the Hogs.
Colorado State out-gained Colorado 499 to 418 yet lost in overtime 43-35. A 4-2 turnover ratio and 17 penalties killed them. That Targeting one at the end was rough and I hate the rule.
Kansas out-gained Nevada 441 to 263 yet only won 31-24. A 1-0 turnover ratio and poor red-zone hurt the Jayhawks.
Key Injuries
Colorado WR/CB Travis Hunter was taken to evaluation for concussion after the game.
Iowa TE Luke Lachey went out with a significant injury in a walking boot.
Nebraska might continue to start Heinrich Haarberg over Jeff Sims.
QB Frank Harris for UTSA still questionable.
Louisiana QB Ben Wooldridge is out for a while.
FAU QB Casey Thompson tore his ACL and is out for the season.
On this week’s episode of Expected Bets For, @FrancoTheBanker, @gretzkybetzkys and I break down the Central Division and offer our thoughts on each team’s season points total.
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Sean Peyton and the Broncos hit the road east and head to South Beach for a week 3 clash with Tua, Tyreek and the Fish. This is Denver’s first road game of the season, getting games 1 and 2 of their schedule at home. While Miami started their season with away games in L.A and New England, making Sunday their home opener. Now these were two squads with tons of hype entering the 2023 season, also two teams heading in vastly different directions. Miami has lived up to the hype, currently 2-0 and clicking on many levels. Whereas Denver is still winless and are facing plenty of problems on both sides of the ball.
This is an awful spot for Denver. Why do you ask? Well, you always have the altitude factor playing at Mile High giving the Broncos players an edge in every home game. They were unable to come away with wins in either home game, and now head to Miami to play in the heat. For those not from Florida, truly have no idea the humidity factor playing in Florida in September. Like the Broncos getting that home edge, this situation greatly favors the Dolphin roster. Playing, practicing, and living in this heat is no picnic, but their bodies are surely more acclimated than any of the northern teams.
Now let’s talk X’s and O’s. This is set up to be a long day for Russell and company. Vic Fangio’s defense was able to get to Justin Herbert 3 times in week 1 and got to Mac Jones 4 times in week 2. Yes, I understand the Patriots were without two offensive linemen, but regardless getting to the QB has been no problem for his D. Now he gets to square off with a Denver O-line who has given up 9 sacks in just two weeks. Again, I understand 7 of the 9 came from the Commanders ferocious pass rush, but don’t think for a second Miami is that far behind them. Expect to see Fangio bring pressure on Wilson all game, causing chaos and hopefully a defensive TD or at the very least, short fields for Tua. Also don’t forget this is Fangio’s old team where he was the previous head coach, so I expect him to call an aggressive game with the revenge factor partially being in play.
How will Denver stop the Dolphins offense? Simply put, they won’t. Miami has too much speed on outside for Denver to contain. The second Mike McDaniel senses them consistently dropping back into coverage, he will unleash Mostert who ran for 121 yards in New England last week. Raiders WR Jakobi Myers had a field day week 1 versus Denver, with all their focus on Davante Adams. I expect a similar game Sunday with Denver focusing on stopping Tyreek Hill. Leaving an empty canvas for Waddle to, waddle into the endzone.
Let’s take the fish in week 3, with a strong unit upgrade. We will also throw in a few Waddle receiving props as well. Let’s go Dolphins!
Dolphins -6.5 (BetMGM -110) risk 2.2u to win 2u
Waddle over ___ receiving yards risk ___ to win 0.5u
Waddle *anytime* TD +115 (DraftKings) risk 0.25u to win 0.29u
Correlated Parlay: Dolphins -6.5/over 48. risk 0.2u to win 0.53u
Good luck if tailing any of these bets, as always bet what you can afford to lose, stay disciplined and BREATHE…
We have a great show for you today! First, Kiev recaps the weekend in college and NFL football with some thoughts. Next, Kiev talks about the good the bad and the ugly in sports from last weekend. Then, we get into come college and NFL football misleading final scores and betting spots as well as a Free Play for college football week 4. Finally, we talk some fantasy football with key injuries, waivers, booms and busts. Should you have any questions for the podcast, or games that you want us to cap during our shows, please message us at Info@TheOddsBreakers.com. Have a wonderful week!
USE PROMO CODE Football2023 TO GET $50 OFF EVERY FOOTBALL PACKAGE AND $50 OFF EVERY MONTHLY MEMBERSHIP FOR THE FIRST MONTH! Click here: https://theoddsbreakers.com/premium-plays/ Offer expires November 17th, 2023
If you want to subscribe to support us and get some very frequent winners please Click Here to become a member of The OddsBreakers and gain access to premium plays BEFORE the line moves! Or, you can visit theoddsbreakers.com and click shop and pick one of our great handicappers including Kiev O’Neil @OBKiev at only $84 per month on a 1 year subscription! You could also support us at Patreon.com for only $10 a month to help us out and thank us for some free plays as well as get some extra benefits and merchandise.
Follow us @TheOddsBreakers on social media!
If you want to take ownership of your health, try AG1 and get a FREE 1-yearsupply of Vitamin D AND 5 Free AG1 Travel Packs with your first purchase. Go to drinkAG1.com/oddsbreakers
Great start so far to the young NFL season as we sit at 8-4-1 with a few plays left for Monday night.
Looking at one of tonight’s Monday night match-ups for our Free Play as the Saints roll into Charlotte to take on the Panthers. The weather looks good with with 75 degrees and sunny skies. Light variable winds at 6 mph expected.
Current lines sit at the Saints -3 with it getting pushed to -120 at some books so this could hit 3.5 in some places before game time. Saints -175 ML and Panthers +155. The total is at 39.5.
The Saints edged out the Titans by a point at home in week 1 as Mike Vrabel played for the cover. The offense wasn’t overly impressive as they really struggled to run the ball against the Titans. That being said that was the MO of most teams against the Titans in 2022 who struggled much more mightily against the pass. Derek Carr looked comfortable in the passing attack racking up 305 Yards on 33 attempts. His receiving core with Chris Olave, Rashid Shaheed and a healthy Michael Thomas present all sorts of match-up problems for opposing defenses. Their defense looked solid holding Tennessee to 285 total yards and intercepting Ryan Tannenhill three times. They should be able to replicate that script against the Panthers woeful offense.
The Panthers were a two touchdown loser to the Falcons Week 1 despite out-gaining them by 60 yards. Two Bryce young picks and three total turnovers did them in as they were forced in the second half to get away from their game script of running the football. They did have the fourth highest success rate Week 1 rushing the ball, but I think this Saints defense that held Derrick Henry to 63 yards will be a tougher task for them. Bryce Young threw the ball 38 times, but only managed 146 yards which is a paltry 3.84 yards per attempt. The Panthers defense did look good against the Falcons and got stuck defending a very short field following both Bryce Young INTs. I think they will be tough against the Saints running game, but will struggle more this week against Carr and his elite group of receivers than they did against Desmond Ridder. Also they lost starting top CB Jaycee Horn this week who went on IR so matching up with those Saints wideouts will be even tougher.
Let’s break it down. Everything says we should be on the Panthers here from a history standpoint. Early season divisional game. Low scoring expected. Home team getting a Field goal or even 3.5. Sometimes you have to throw history out the window and look at what you’ve seen on the field. Yes, one week is a small sample size, but looking at the Panthers defensive success rate last year and what they improved on in the off-season I don’t see them having the same level of success against the Saints as they did against the Falcons. The Jaycee Horn injury is huge, and if they want to slow down Carr they will need to find a way to get pressure on him up the middle and interrupt his rhythm. More importantly for me in this handicap is the Panthers lackluster offense. Young could not push the ball downfield at all. When your tight end leads the team in receiving with 5 catches for 41 yards you are going to struggle to stretch the defense and help the rushing attach. D.J.Chark is banged up, but expected to play. Adam Thielen is past his prime and has not found any chemistry with Young so far. Miles Sanders and Chuba Hubbard have to be effective for this team to have a chance and the game has to stay within striking distance for them not to abandon the running game. The Saints will not allow that to happen. Bryce Young cannot carry this team to a victory and I think the Saints find enough big plays in this one to force him to try and do that. I’ve got the Saints tonight in what I think will be a 27-10, 24-13 type of contest. Who Dat!
