The Burrow-less Bengals (at least for now) travel south to Atlanta for a week 2 preseason clash. Very important to note these teams do not face each other in the regular season, so essentially no plays are “off” the table. Bengals head coach Zac Taylor enters this game with a 3-8 preseason record so far in his career. The intensity these guys bring in September and on clearly does not exist in the preseason. With these guys already on edge due to Joe’s calf injury, I can’t imagine the starters will be balls to the wall in this spot. Get their feet wet, make some plays, take, or give a few hits and move on. So, with all that said do we back the Falcons for the game or the 1st half? Yes, I did just state Taylor’s record, but there more than just numbers. Being ahead on the scoreboard at any point during these games means nothing to him. Also, I’m not a big fan of laying 6 points in any game let alone a preseason game, and knowing the edge Atlanta has with their first stringers versus Cincinnati’s. I think it’s a no brainer to take the first half. The Bengals will give a heavy dose of Browning and Siemian early on. Be sure not to confuse the same Siemian that has been successful versus 2nd and 3rd stringers in preseason over the years. This will not be the case on Friday night. Give me Desmond Ridder, an aspiring QB in this league looking to prove himself. This also applies to just about every other playmaking position in this offense. Do note it’s also Atlanta’s first official home game with a ton of potential upside to this 2023 season, well at least to me. So, the effort factor severely favors the Falcons as well. Let’s back Atlanta in the 1st half Friday night!
1H: Falcons -4.5 (BetMGM -105) risk 1.05u to win 1u
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So we all know the song and dance about the starters playing and the spread moving in preseason football. The big question is what happens when the starters come out? What we know is that Joe Burrow is out until the season and we also know that Atlanta will play their starters including QB Desmond Ritter. The issue that I have is that Ritter is still sorta green so there is no guarantee exactly how good that this man will be. I know that Arthur smith is also not stupid enough to risk injury to Calvin Ridley and Kyle Pitts. From the Bengals side of things, we do have some competent quarterbacks here in Jake Browning and Trevor Siemian. These guys are just fighting to keep their jobs much less win the game. Lastly, neither of these coaches are winning preseason coaches with Smith at 2-4 and Zac Taylor at 3-7. Take the dog here. They could lose by six or less and it still hits.
We have arrived at the first few days of Pre-Season action which means real NFL games are just around the corner. I’ve put together 9 preview articles that will break down the season win predictions for every team in football, and then look to the playoffs and what teams have value in the futures. I have gone through the entire schedule game by game and have found some great values on season win totals. I’ll highlight my top plays along the way and get you my picks division by division.
My all time tracked record in the NFL currently sits at 178-151-2 with a 7.4% ROI as we had a huge 2021 and a slight winning campaign in 2022. You can find all my packages available here including an all inclusive football package covering college and the NFL for $500 for the whole season.
Wanna know anything else? Hit me up on twitter or whatever it’s called now @TheGreatKnoche.
NFC East
2022 Records
Philadelphia 14-3/ Dallas 12-5/ New York Giants 9-7-1/ Washington 8-8-1
Philadelphia – I underestimated Jalen Hurts last year. I loved the Philly O-Lines and D-Lines and those were as advertised. But I missed on Hurts. He showed up and could have won the MVP if he hadn’t gotten injured. Now Hurts has gotten paid and Philly had to shed some talent, but overall turnover was minimal. The Eagles also had the best draft grade according to Football Outsiders in 20 years. They reloaded on the D-Line with Jalen Carter and Nolan Smith and improved the O-Line. They were the first team in history with four players recording ten or more sacks, and they could repeat that this year. The offense returns mostly intact for a team that was third in both yards and points per game last year. The key to maintaining last years success should really just come down to staying healthy, and if they do I see a repeat of last year in a weak NFC. Vegas Win Projection: 11.5 Juiced to the Under -140, Over +110
Dallas – Like the Eagles, the Cowboys had very minimal off-season turnover of their roster from a team that won 12 games in 2022. They lost a close playoff game to the 49ers, but the fire Mike McCarthy bandwagon was rolling all season long. McCarthy has a .614 career winning percentage, and while you can claim that most of that was because of Aaron Rodgers it still puts him in rare company in the NFL. That being said, I think Dak may be in decline which could hurt that win percentage. He led the league along with Davis Mills in interceptions and did so in 3 fewer games. There are some metrics that just say he was unlucky, but the eye test for me says otherwise and he turns 30 this year so the running ability may slow some more. He did get a new weapon in Brandin Cooks if he has anything left in the tank. On defense Micah Parsons is on another level and is a favorite to win the defensive player of the year. They added Mazi Smith in the draft to fill their biggest hole in the middle of the line and aging corner Stephen Gilmore to go opposite ball hawk Trevon Diggs. They were extremely lucky in forcing fumbles being a net +12 last year, and between that and Dak’s turnovers I see a step back in 2023. Vegas Win Projection: 9.5 Juiced to the Over -170, Under +140
New York Giants – Brian Daboll is one of my favorite coaches in the league. I love a passionate guy who doesn’t come across as a moron and those are hard to find. He certainly had his team outperform expectations, but the metrics say a good deal of it had to do with luck. I am not a Daniel Jones believer. I think the G-Men made a mistake in the signing of the 40 million/year deal. That being said Darren Waller should be a nice safety blanket for him since he doesn’t have a true #1 at receiver, and if he does make another step forward maybe they can navigate their way back to the post-season in the weak NFC. What will Saquon do is another big question mark, will he be motivated to get a big contract with the Giants or a new team, or just kind of coast to 2024 after what was said about his pass catching abilities? On defense I love the Bobby Okereke signing and they drafted CB Deonte Banks who was my second favorite corner in the draft. The defense should improve, but not to become a top 10 unit, and I need one more season of Jones improvement for me to become a believer in this team. Vegas Win Projection: 7.5 Even at -115
Washington – A pretty good overall roster with nobody to play quarterback is the story in DC. The defense was 3rd in overall yards allowed last year and they were also first in success rate allowed, which is really the reason they were able to win eight games last year. One big question mark as to whether or not they’ll improve on offense may be Eric Bieniemy as the new OC. Carson Wentz was an experiment that turned out sour quickly and now they turn to 5th round pick Sam Howell after landing nobody but Jacoby Brissett in free agency. Daniel Synder selling the team certainly has a part in what happened this off-season at the QB spot. They did spend upgrading the O-line and retained Daron Payne at DT which is huge. The draft however left a lot to be desired focusing on just the corner spot and for me it just feels like a transition year in Washington. I’d watch for new owner to be followed by a new GM and as much as I like Ron Rivera, a new Head Coach in 2024. Vegas Win Projection: 6.5 Juiced to the Under -140, Over +110
2023 Predictions
Philadelphia 11-6
Dallas 9-8
New York Giants 7-10
Washington 6-11
NFC East Action:
Philadelphia – No Action. They have a fairly easy first place schedule getting Tampa and Minnesota along with KC. This team should win 11 or 12 games and I can’t put any money down here.
Dallas – Lean Under. They got lucky a lot last year, and like I said I’m down on Dak.
New York Giants – No action. This number feels right on, and even though I’m not a Daniel Jones believer he did show enough last year with the weak NFC they could certainly get to 8 or 9 wins.
Washington – No Action. Sorry, the NFC East is boring from a betting perspective for me. As much as I think there’s changes coming in DC, the Commanders defense is good enough to keep them in many games and if they get lucky like the 2022 Vikings or Cowboys they could be above .500.
We have a MASSIVE show for you today! Kelley Ford @KFordRatings from @TheLines, @Wehateyourteam_ and Vegas Matty from @Footballcontest comes on to discuss the college football landscape as well as the huge football contests in Vegas. First, Kiev talks about some upcoming events at Circa Las Vegas for contest week! Next, Kelley comes on and the guys get right into all of the issues with college football and how to maybe fix them. Then, Kiev and Kelley talk Heisman favorites while Kiev gives out a long shot homer play that makes some sense. Next, Kelley and Kiev talk Sun Belt football previewing the better teams in that conference as well as some sleepers. After that, Vegas Matty comes on to discuss the HUGE football contests @CircaSports and @Superbooksports. Finally, Kiev talks some UFC 292 Sterling vs O’Malley with some #FREEPLAYS. Should you have any questions for the podcast, or games that you want us to cap during our shows, please message us at Info@TheOddsBreakers.com. Have a wonderful week!
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We have arrived at the first few days of Pre-Season action which means real NFL games are just around the corner. I’ve put together 9 preview articles that will break down the season win predictions for every team in football, and then look to the playoffs and what teams have value in the futures. I have gone through the entire schedule game by game and have found some great values on season win totals. I’ll highlight my top plays along the way and get you my picks division by division.
My all time tracked record in the NFL currently sits at 178-151-2 with a 7.4% ROI as we had a huge 2021 and a slight winning campaign in 2022. You can find all my packages available here including an all inclusive football package covering college and the NFL for $500 for the whole season.
Wanna know anything else? Hit me up on twitter or whatever it’s called now @TheGreatKnoche.
NFC North
2022 Records
Minnesota 13-4/ Detroit 9-8/ Green Bay 8-9/ Chicago 3-14
Detroit – Feels strange to be putting this team atop the NFC North as they haven’t won it in 30 years. That being said I don’t think this team moved themselves forward as much as the hype is making it seem. They had plenty of picks from the Stafford trade, and I wasn’t overly impressed with them, but we shall see. Goff and the offense really clicked last year and should easily be a top 10 unit again this season. David Montgomery will replace D’Andrew Swift and Jamaal Williams in the backfield along with first round pick Jahmyr Gibbs. I’m not sure this is an upgrade. We’ll see if Jameson Williams coming off injury and gambling suspension can give them some help for Amon-Ra St. Brown. Also keeping Ben Johnson was big. The defense is led up front by pressure from Aiden Hutchinson. In the back seven they turned a lot of the group over including moving on from talented corner Jeff Okudah. They did grab three corners in free agency and used their other first round pick on LB Jack Campbell. I still don’t see the defensive unit being in the top half of rankings, but it should be better than last year. If it’s a lot better this team could reach double digit wins. Vegas Win Projection: 9.5 Juiced to the Over at -125, Under -105
Green Bay – Do the Packers have their third straight generational QB? As someone who lives in Wisconsin I do think I’ve seen enough of him to believe he will be serviceable to keep the offense from declining a large amount. Kinda the same way I felt about Aaron Rodgers the first year he got the reigns. He’s a first round QB talent that everyone said had high upside. We’re all going to find out together. As per usual the Packers did almost nothing big to help Love in Free Agency electing to build though the draft with 13 picks and signing a boatload of nobodies hoping someone makes a break through on a new team. Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon will be a core feature of the offense and Christian Watson is certainly already a top deep ball threat. They will need someone to step up and become a second target for Love however. Sounds almost exactly like the last five off-seasons with Rodgers. On defense I think this team took a slight step back in talent, but should still be a middle of the road unit. Who do you Love? Vegas Win Projection: 7.5 Juiced to the Over at -135, Under +105
Minnesota – Last year they may have been the luckiest team in NFL history. They went 13-4 with a negative end of year point differential and were only +2 at end of year in turnover differential. They somehow went 11-0 in one possession games and won 9 games they trailed in the second half including that complete meltdown by the Colts in Week 15. This should have been a nine win team at best, and the talent level is going in the wrong direction on both sides of the ball. The offense was top ten in 2022, but the defense was 31st in yards allowed per game, and as I pointed out they really didn’t blow anyone out so teams weren’t throwing against a prevent defense in order to rack up those yards. They lost four key pieces on that awful defense including trading away 10 sack man Za’darius Smith. I think the only potential improvement on the defensive side comes from new DC Brian Flores. The offense will sill be decent with Kirk Cousins and the helm and Justin Jefferson to throw to and draft pick Jordan Addison should slide in for Thielen at the number two receiver spot. Alexander Mattison should be a fine replacement for Dalvin Cook who clearly lost a step. Vegas Win Projection: 8.5 Juiced to the Over at -125, Under -105
Chicago – Justin Fields made some progress last year as a QB. However his lack of skill in the passing game limits his overall ability to carry this team. If he could stretch the field better and run the way he does I would be much higher on this team. They got him some help in protection from the draft in Darnell Wright. The running game should transition ok with D’onta Foreman, and D.J. Moore is an upgrade for them at WR to pair along side Darnell Mooney, but if they can’t complete a pass more than ten yards down field those upgrades mean nothing. He’s got enough talent around him now where we find out this year if Fields can sink or swim and I think he’s a giant lead weight. Free agent signings Tremaine Edmunds and T.J. Edwards are a solid upgrade to a defensive unit that was 29th overall last year. They spent 7 of 10 draft picks on defense so they should improve, but they certainly didn’t upgrade the unit enough to compete even in this week division. Vegas Win Projection: 7.5 Juiced to the Over at -130, Under +100
2023 Predictions
Detroit 9-8
Green Bay 8-9
Minnesota 7-10
Chicago 5-12
NFC North Action:
Detroit – No Action. I think they’ll win the division, but they have some tougher at large games keeping me off it in Seattle, Baltimore and Dallas
Green Bay – No Action. As much as an optimistic Packer fan as I’d like to be I can’t bet on the Packers getting to my prediction of eight wins with such a huge unknown at QB.
Minnesota – The NFC North gets one strong cross division opponent in the AFC West and one weaker one in the NFC South. The Vikings also get the first place schedule of Philadelphia, San Francisco and Cincinnati. Between the AFC West and those three games I think 2-5 is optimistic with their defensive issues. Can they go 7-3 in their other ten games to get to 9 wins? I don’t think so. Under 8.5 Wins -105, 1.5 Units.
Chicago – Under 7.5, 1 Unit. There’s been money coming in on the over since season win totals posted. I’m not a believer in Fields and the Bears improving 5 wins from last season. Sorry Kiev.
Lucas Glover continues to roll as he has now won his second event in a row defeating Patrick Cantlay in a playoff at the FedEx St. Jude Championship. He’ll look for his third consecutive win this week a feat which has only been accomplished twice on Tour since 2004. Jon Rahm had a chance to win three in a row earlier this year but ended up finishing T7 at the Farmers Insurance Open.
Let’s get into this week’s storylines…
The second leg of the FedEx Cup Playoffs kicks off this week with a 50-player field at the BMW Championship. The North Course at Olympia Fields Country Club plays host to the event for the second time with the first being back in 2020.
Jon Rahm was the winner of the BMW Championship back in 2020 and is currently in first place in the FedEx Cup Standings.
Patrick Cantlay has won this event in back-to-back years. He’s coming off an impressive performance last week so he’s in solid form. Each of the golfers who tried for their third-straight TOUR titles this season – Viktor Hovland (World Wide Technologies Championship), Sam Burns (Valspar Championship), KH Lee (AT&T Byron Nelson), and Rory McIlroy (RBC Canadian Open), fell short in their attempts so we’ll see if Cantlay can come through this week.
The FedEx Cup is a season-long points competition that culminated with the FedExCup Playoffs. The FedExCup Playoffs is a series of three events that determine the FedExCup Champion.
The top 70 players in the season-long standings qualify for the first of three events (The FedEx St. Jude Championship). This is the only event of the three to have a cut after 36 holes. After this week’s event, only the top 50 players will qualify for the next event, the BMW Championship. Following that tournament, the final event of the playoffs takes place, the TOUR Championship.
In the TOUR Championship, only the top 30 players qualify and the points leader in the FedExCup will start the event at 10-under par. The No. 2 player will start at 8 under. The No. 3 player starts at 7 under; the No. 4 player starts at 6 under; the No. 5 player starts at 5 under. Players 6-10 start at 4 under; players 11-15 start at 3 under; players 16-20 start at 2 under; players 21-25 start at 1 under; and players 26-30 start at even par.
You can click the following link to see the current FedExCup Standings.
Course/ Tournament History:
Olympia Fields Country Club was founded in 1915. Just ten years later, the club had four 18-hole courses and the largest private clubhouse in the world with an 80-foot, four-faced clock tower visible to golfers from all four first tees. During World War II the club fell into financial troubles and was forced to sell half of its land which has led to two courses remaining, the North and the South.
The host venue features two courses, a North, and a South course. The North course, formerly the club’s No. 4 Course, was designed by Willie Park, Jr. and is the longer of two courses playing just over 7,300 yards. The South course, formerly the club’s No. 1 Course, which will not be featured this week, was designed by Tom Bendelow.
In addition to hosting the BMW Championship, several other major tournaments have been held here including the U.S. Open (1928,2003), the PGA Championship (1925, 1961), the U.S. Senior Open (1997), and the U.S. Amateur (2015).
Introduced in 2007, the BMW Championship is the penultimate FedEx Cup playoff event. It was held at Cog Hill Golf & Country Club until 2011, except for Bellerive Country Club playing host in 2008. From 2011 to 2017, the event was hosted at three different courses including Crooked Stick Golf Club (’12,’16), Conway Farms Golf Club (’13, ’15,’17), and Cherry Hill Country Club (’14). After that, the event has been held at a different course each year. The BMW Championship returns to Olympia Fields Country Club for the second time making it the only venue to host this event twice since then.
72-Hole Record (Olympia Fields):
276, Jon Rahm, Dustin Johnson (2020)
18-Hole Record (Olympia Fields):
64, Jon Rahm (4th round, 2020)
72-Hole Record (Event):
261, Patrick Cantlay/Bryson DeChambeau (2021 – Caves Valley Golf Club)
18-Hole Record (Event):
59, Jim Furyk (2nd round, 2013)
Course Guide/ Scorecard:
The North Course at Olympia Fields Country Club is on the longer side measuring 7,366 yards. It ranks 6th out of 46 courses in terms of length. The fairways are on the narrower side, ranking 2nd of 46, with the average fairway width being 26.0 yards. The average green size is roughly 5,238 square feet which is on the smaller side when compared to the other courses on the PGA Tour. There are 91 bunkers that rank as the 8th most out of the 46 courses.
The four Par 3’s range between 168 yards and 251 yards. Three Par 3’s had a scoring average over par back in 2020 with the exclusion being No. 13.
No. 8, Par 3, 251 Yards: “This monster of a par 3 calls for one of the toughest shots on the entire course. The tee shot is long and uphill and is hit into the prevailing wind, while the green is well-protected left and right with big, deep bunkers, three left one right. Most players will hit fairway woods or long irons into the center of the green and hope to two-putt, but the putting surface has so many ripples and undulations that you could see just as many three-putts. For those hitting long, there will be a collection area behind the green from where they can try to get up and down for par. This is what we call a “getaway” hole. You take your par and get away fast.”
No. 13, Par 3, 168 Yards: “About all the golfers can see from the tee of this uphill par 3 is the back of the green as most of the front sits in a large swale. The safe play is to the middle of the green followed by two putts for par, but that will be a tall order when the hole is cut up on the back-right shelf. And anyone who tries to get too precise with a forward hole location could end up in the front-left or front-right greenside bunkers, some 10 feet beneath the putting surface. This may be the shortest hole on the course, but it is not necessarily a birdie hole.”
The twelve Par 4’s on the course provide a challenge with only a few scoring opportunities depending on the tee shot. Only one of the Par 4’s had a scoring average below par in 2020 which was No. 4.
No. 3, Par 4, 461 Yards: “This is the signature hole for this nine. The first thing you notice is that there are no fairway bunkers. The second thing is that the hole doesn’t need any. The tee shot is hit blind, out of a tight chute, to a narrow fairway that sits beyond and down a steep hill. And it must find the left of the fairway or trees may block the approach to the small, elevated green. A clear approach will likely call for a middle iron, but holding this green will be difficult as the slope of the surface is one of the most severe on the course. Anything that lands on the front may roll off the green and back down a steep stretch of fairway.”
No. 14, Par 4, 450 Yards: “This is the signature hole on this nine. Butterfield Creek crosses in front of the tee about 125 yards out then runs down the right of a fairway that has been shifted over toward it to bring the creek very much into play. The creek then crosses the hole again at the base of a berm some 300 yards from the tee. The elevated tee shot calls for a long iron or 3-wood to take the creek out of play, but that leaves an uphill shot over the creek to an elevated green with a tremendous amount of back-to-front slope. Anything blocked to the right will find trees while anything hit to the front of the green could roll back off and down the steeply sloping fairway. Instead of two routine putts for par, a player could be facing a 40-yard chip shot.”
The two Par 5’s, No. 1 and No. 15 both measure over 600 yards. Players will need to take advantage of this scoring opportunity if they want to have success here.
No. 1, Par 5, 626 Yards: “This long, straight par 5 should present little difficulty to the average touring professional – provided he stays out of the fairway and greenside bunkers. The revamped bunkering has made the North Course much more challenging. A tee shot that finds a fairway bunker here takes away a chance of reaching the green in two, as the bunkers are too deep to allow the fairway wood or long-iron shot required. An approach that finds a greenside bunker will leave the golfer well below the level of the green, hitting up to a back-to-front sloping putting surface. The ideal way to play the hole is to hit a tee shot over the right edge of the left fairway bunker, and leave a fairway metal or long iron to the green.”
No. 15, Par 5, 606 Yards: “This hole may prove to be a most rare specie for the field: a par 5 that isn’t a guaranteed birdie. There are two ways to play it. Shorter hitters will play it as a true three-shotter because the fairway turns sharply to the right about 275 yards from the green. Look for them to use a long iron or fairway wood off the tee, then hit a long iron to set up a wedge shot. The bigger hitters can reach in two – but only if they keep their tee shots down the left, and that’s not easy to do as the fairway slope works against them. If they end up to the right, they’ll have to hit a slice – not just a fade – around the crook of the curve to reach the green. Of course, they’d be better laying up.”
Featured/ Signature Hole(s): 3, 14
You can click the following link for a hole-by-hole overview of the course.
Key Statistics:
Strokes Gained: Approach
Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green
Strokes Gained: Putting (Bentgrass)
Driving Distance
Scrambling
Par 4 Scoring: 450 – 500 (x6)
Par 5 Scoring: 600 – 650 (x2)
Proximity: 125 – 150 Yards
Proximity: 150 – 175 Yards
Comparable Courses and Event History
The Field/ Odds:
There will be 50 players competing in this year’s BMW Championship. Here are the current favorites in this week’s event:
Rory McIlroy (+650) finished T12 at the BMW Championship back in 2020, the last time Olympia Fields played host to this event. He also won this event back in 2012 when it was at Crooked Stick Golf Club. He hasn’t finished outside of the top 10 in his last eight tournaments. During that span, he captured his second win of the season at the Genesis Scottish Open.
Scottie Scheffler (+700) has finished outside the top 20 in his last two starts on the PGA Tour, something he hasn’t done all season. Before that, he had finished inside the top-5 in seven consecutive events. At the 2020 BMW Championship, Scheffler finished T20.
Jon Rahm (+900) struggled at the FedEx St. Jude Championship finishing T37. It was just the second time all season that he lost strokes off the tee. Rahm has some of the best event history finishing inside the top 10 in five of his six appearances. He also won the 2020 BMW Championship which was played at Olympia Fields.
Patrick Cantlay (+1000) has won back-to-back BMW Championships. At the 2020 BMW Championship, he finished T12. Cantlay is coming off a strong performance at the FedEx St. Jude Championship where he lost in a playoff to Lucas Glover.
Viktor Hovland (+1600) has two wins this season and has finished inside the top 15 in each of his last two starts on Tour. In 2020, he finished T40 at this event.
Previous Winners in the Field (Olympia Fields):
Jon Rahm (’20)
Previous Winners in the Field (Event):
Patrick Cantlay (’22. ’21), Jon Rahm (’20), Keegan Bradley (’18), Jason Day (’15)
Injury Concerns:
Tom Kim (Wrist / Ankle)
Notable Withdraws:
None
You can click the following link to see the most up-to-date odds.
You can click the following link to see the full field for this event and how they qualified.
Horses for Courses (Olympia Fields Country Club):
BMW Championship
Olympia Fields Country Club (North Course)
2020
Jon Rham
1
Hideki Matsuyama
3
Tony Finau
5
Matthew Fitzpatrick
6
Brendon Todd
8
Patrick Cantlay
T12
Rory McIlroy
T12
Byeong-Hun An
T12
Brian Harman
T12
Tyrrell Hatton
16
Donkeys for Courses (Olympia Fields Country Club):
“Horses for Courses” is a phrase that is widely used and describes the best course/tournament fits. These are the players that have had success at the particular course/event. “Donkeys for Courses” is something I came up with that highlights the players who have struggled at a specific course/tournament.
BMW Championship
Olympia Fields (North Course)
2020
Sungjae Im
T56
J.T. Poston
T59
Max Homa
T59
Jason Day
64
Tom Hoge
T65
Previous Winners Scores & Prices (Event – BMW Championship):
2022: Patrick Cantlay (-14) – Wilmington Country Club (South)
Price: 16-1
2021: Patrick Cantlay (-27) – Caves Valley Country Club
Price: 25-1
2020: Jon Rahm (-4) – Olympia Fields Country Club (North)
Price: 10-1
2019: Justin Thomas (-25) – Medinah Country Club’s No. 3 course
Price: 16-1
2018: Keegan Bradley (-20) – Aronimink Golf Club
Price: 140-1
Picks (Outrights):
Viktor Hovland (+1600) – FanDuel
Risk 0.50 to win 8.00 Units
Tommy Fleetwood (+2200) – FanDuel
Risk 0.37 to win 8.14 Units
Max Homa (+2500) – FanDuel
Risk 0.32 to win 8.00 Units
Total Risk on Outrights: 1.19 Units
Picks (Top 20):
Corey Conners (+105) – BetMGM
Risk 1.00 to win 1.05 Units
Jason Day (+110) – BetMGM
Risk 1.00 to win 1.10 Units
Keegan Bradley (+125) – BetMGM
Risk 1.00 to win 1.25 Units
Emiliano Grillo (+125) – BetMGM
Risk 1.00 to win 1.25 Units
Total Risk on Top 20: 4.00 Units
Total Risk on the BMW Championship: 5.19 Units
Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting. Any feedback whether positive or negative, is always encouraged.
We have arrived at the first few days of Pre-Season action which means real NFL games are just around the corner. I’ve put together 9 preview articles that will break down the season win predictions for every team in football, and then look to the playoffs and what teams have value in the futures. I have gone through the entire schedule game by game and have found some great values on season win totals. I’ll highlight my top plays along the way and get you my picks division by division.
My all time tracked record in the NFL currently sits at 178-151-2 with a 7.4% ROI as we had a huge 2021 and a slight winning campaign in 2022. You can find all my packages available here including an all inclusive football package covering college and the NFL for $500 for the whole season.
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NFC South
2022 Records
Tampa Bay 8-9/ Carolina 7-10/ New Orleans 7-10/ Atlanta 7-10
New Orleans – This team should have won the South last year (And cashed my mid-year division play on them), but alas they did not. I think they have the most talent across the board in the South and Derek Carr should be an upgrade over Andy Dalton especially from a mobility aspect. They’ll need it as they did nothing to fix the O-Line. I like the Jamaal Williams signing with the Kamara suspension upcoming. The receiving core of Chris Olave and Rashid Shaheed should get a healthy Michael Thomas to start the year putting this group of skill players high on my rankings list. The defense is getting quite an overhaul as Cameron Jordan is the only starter on the D-Line returning, but they had a good draft led by DE Bryan Bresee and I think they can piece together enough in the back 7 to be a middle of the pack defense. Oh, and did I mention the they have the #1 easiest schedule? Vegas Win Projection: 9.5 Juiced to the Under at -125, Over -105
Atlanta – Well Desmond Ridder Or Die is the motto in Atlanta this year. They could have gotten a QB in the draft and had plenty of cap space to make an offer to Lamar Jackson the Ravens would have had difficulty matching. They decided to go with Ridder. Kyle Pitts, Bijan Robinson and Drake London will be his primary weapons besides his feet. This will be a heavy run first attack with Tyler Allgeier and Robinson. The team re-signed a boatload of their own players using those free agency dollars as they had a record number of expiring contracts this off-season. They also made some splashes on the defensive side of the ball with safety Jessie Bates and DL David Onyemata. This team has the second easiest schedule in the NFL and if Ridder turns into something I could see them challenging New Orleans for the division title. Vegas Win Projection: 8.5 Juiced to the Over at -145, Under +115
Carolina – The Panthers have had five different QBs lead the team in passing the last five seasons. They invested heavily in Bryce Young to the tune of 4 draft picks and D.J. Moore to stop that streak at six. They also got some serious help in free agency in Adam Thielen, Miles Sanders, Hayden Hurst and D.J. Chark to get Young some weapons right away. On defense they signed Vonn Bell which gives them two proven safeties to limit big plays, but this defense overall needed a lot more help coming in 25th in DVOA. I’m not seeing enough improvement here, and while they may take some of the positive momentum forward from last season after Matt Rhule was fired the Rookie QB and defensive issues are going to be trouble. For every Dak, Big Ben and Andrew Luck there are many more Rick Mirer, Jamarcus Russell, Tim Couch and Johnny Manziel’s. Vegas Win Projection: 7.5 Even at -115
Tampa Bay – Tom Brady is gone. Baker Mayfield or Kyle Trask is in. That should tell you everything you need to know about how I think the season in Tampa is going to go. This team still has high end talent on offense like Mike Evans and Chris Godwin, and defensive playmakers at all three levels . Even so, this team did not perform well last season and with so much dead cap space they couldn’t do much in free agency to improve it. They will need to assess the situation early in the year, and hope they can find a way to hash out some wins, but I don’t see it turning out well for them and they may just move on to planning for 2024. Vegas Win Projection: 6.5 Juiced to the Under at -140, Over +110
2023 Predictions
New Orleans 10-7
Atlanta 9-8
Carolina 5-12
Tampa Bay 5-12
NFC South Action:
New Orleans – Lean Over. Just for fun here are the opposing QBs for the Saints this season: Ryan Tannenhill, Bryce Young x2, Jordan Love, Kyle Task x2, Mac Jones, CJ Stroud, Trevor Lawrence, Anthony Richardson, Justin Fields, Kirk Cousins, Desmond Ridder x2, Jared Goff, Daniel Jones, Matt Stafford. That’s 4 opposing QBs in 17 games I have ranked in the top 50% of NFL QBs. If you got this early at a better number well done. It’s too close to play now.
Atlanta – Lean Over – Another one where if you played it early when juiced to the under it was a small play, but not here.
Carolina – Under 7.5 Wins 1 Unit. I’ve got them 2.5 games under on my projections. I’m hesitant to bet an under in this division due to strength of schedule but they get Seattle, Miami and Dallas in the three non assigned games and combined with the Rookie QB and defensive issues I’m making it a small play.
Tampa Bay – Lean Under. There’s enough talent on this roster still where if they get rolling I could see 7 wins.
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White Sox vs Cubs -174 O/U 8.5
With the Wild card in reach, the Cubs have certainly brushed up on their hitting. Chicago is only 3.5 games back from first place in the division. The White Sox on the other hand are 14.5 games back with no chance at making the post season. Kyle Hendricks takes the mound today who has been wishy-washy at best at his veteran state. The speed and rotation of his pitches are down this year coming off of that bad injury. He is also only at a 3.96 ERA and a 4.2 FIP for 2023. The issue with the White Sox here is that they can’t hit righties at all ranking 2nd to last in the league vs right handed pitching. The Sox have Touki Toussaint pitching tonight who hasn’t exactly impressed over his career averaging a 5.11 ERA and a 5.15 FIP. Touki is basically a mid-relief who has to start tonight. The good news for the Cubs is that they are 5th in runs per game averaging 5.09. They are also great against right handed pitching ranking 8th in wRC+. I think the Cubs win this one but the team total has more value at -120 than the money line at -174. After the day off, you will see the Cubs getting some runs so I will take their team total over.
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Head coaches making their team and/or NFL debut is what I like to target specifically in week 1. AE last night, the Broncos #1-unit played majority of the first half getting as many reps as one would want in a preseason game. Flip the script, it was NFL head coach debut for Arizona’s Jonathon Gannon, and he gets the W. Had you made a halftime (Den)/fulltime (Ari) play you would have been handsomely rewarded. Your probably thinking, well what does that have to do with this game? Well, Bears head coach Matt Eberflus made his NFL debut last season, and the Bears were 3-0 in August. Some would argue Siemian played a factor throwing for 3 total TDs in weeks one and two, but luckily for us he is not on the team anymore. Regardless, I expect a more vanilla play calling and for Fields to be severely held back with fans excited for his 2023 regular season debut. Meaning we will see PJ Walker and Nathan Peterman for the remainder of this game, Tennessee’s 2nd and 3rd string should have no trouble stopping. Well why do I say that? Mike Vrabel’s last four-week 1 preseason affairs, the defense has given up on average less than 10 points per game. 3, 10, 3 and 23 respectively in each game. The last 2 years in 6 total preseason games, the defense has held the opponent to 3 points in 3 of the 6. I mean should we be surprised? He harps on gritty, knocks you in the mouth, hardnosed football. Yes, even the second and third stringers.
Now let’s talk about the Tennessee offense, or in this instance, lack of. Tannehill will be limited, if any reps. Possible to see an extra series due to his extensive injury last season. Again, regardless of his action, we shouldn’t see unit #1 on the field too long, Tannehill, Henry, and Hopkins specifically. Which leaves Malik Willis and Will Levis. The media has reported that Willis has been “better” through the offseason, hard to buy it in my opinion. He was a disaster last season, but maybe facing a Bears second and third string could help, again I don’t believe so. Eberflus is a defensive guy and I anticipate a jump forward in their defense this year. As far as Levis, I was not high on him in college nor am I at the pro level. He will have to take giant strides to produce in any game at this level.
So, combine those four QB’s: Walker, Peterman, Willis, and Levis I can’t see this game anywhere near the upper 30’s. Fortunately for us under backers, due to some of the higher scoring games last preseason and so far, this year, we are getting a great number! Above the key number of 37. Let’s back the under today and get a low scoring game in Chicago.
Tennessee-Chicago under 37.5 (BetMGM -110) risk 0.55u to win 0.5u
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