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Podcast 49 – 23 – With Tony George – The 2023 Big 12 Landscape – Sports Betting

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We have a great show for you today!   Tony George from @DocsSports comes on to break down some 2023 Big 12!  First, Kiev talks about some upcoming events at Circa Las Vegas for contest week!   Next, Tony comes on and the guys get right into football.  We talk some Nebraska and CFB playoffs as well as some Pac-12.  Then, Tony and Kiev get into some Big 12 for 2023!   Is Texas venerable this year?   Who are the teams that could unseat them?  After that, we talk about each team from a high level and give out some thoughts and FREE PLAYS.  Finally, Kiev talks some UFC on ESPN with a free play!   Should you have any questions for the podcast, or games that you want us to cap during our shows, please message us at Info@TheOddsBreakers.com.  Have a wonderful week!

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Prop $hots – FedEx St. Jude Championship

On this week’s episode of Prop $hots, @PropDr_, @SpittinPicklets and I break down our best bets for the FedEx St. Jude Championship.

 

Topics:

  • Introduction
  • Storylines
  • Course Information
    • Name
    • Par
    • Yardage
    • Greens
    • Architect
    • Comps
  • Weather
  • Field
    • Previous Winners
    • Favorites
    • Horses for Courses
    • Donkeys for Courses
  • Picks
    • Outrights
    • Placements
    • Matchups
Twitter Handles:
  • Podcast: @PropShotsPod
  • Patrick: @GatorBetting
  • Jeremy: @PropDr_
  • Tyson: @SpittinPicklets

 

Any feedback is encouraged whether it’s positive or critical so please give it a listen and let me know what you think!

FedEx St. Jude Championship – Preview & Picks

Congrats to all Lucas Glover backers last week at the Wyndham Championship! He had been trending towards a win for the past few weeks so it was great for him to finally break through and capture his first win on the PGA Tour since the 2021 John Deere Classic.

Let’s get into this week’s storylines…

This week, the three-event 2023 FedExCup Playoffs start at TPC Southwind with the second edition of the FedEx St. Jude Championship. This event replaced The Northern Trust but, TPC Southwind is no stranger to hosting PGA Tour events. A regular season event has been held here every year since 1989.

Last year the top 125 players were eligible for this event but with the new playoff format, only the top 70 players in FedEx Cup Standings are in the field this year.

Rory McIlroy, current No. 3 in the FedEx Cup standings, will begin his quest to defend his FedEx Cup title in hopes of becoming the first player to win it in consecutive years. With his victory last season, he became the PGA TOUR’s first three-time FedExCup winner.

Jon Rahm and Scottie Scheffler, currently No. 1 and No. 2 in the FedEx Cup Standings will look to win their first-ever FedEx Cup. Rahm currently has the most wins on Tour this season and holds a 174-point lead on Scheffler going into this week’s event. Scheffler came close to winning last season at East Lake but was out-dueled by Rory down the stretch.

Justin Thomas (No. 71) and Adam Scott (No. 72) were the first two players out of the FedEx Cup Playoffs. This is the first year for both of these players that they have missed out on the playoffs. Matt Kuchar is now the lone man to make the FedExCup Playoffs each year since the series’ 2007 inception.

Defending champion, Will Zalatoris will not be in the field this week. He captured his lone PGA Tour victory at TPC Southwind last year but had to withdraw the following week due to a back injury. Unfortunately, that injury lingered into this season which has forced him to miss the majority of the past year.

 

Tournament Information:

  • Dates: August 10th, 2023 – August 13th, 2023
  • Location: Memphis, Tennessee, United States
  • Course: TPC Southwind
  • Course Type: Parkland
  • Par: 70 (4x 3’s / 12x 4’s / 2x 5’s)
  • Length: 7,243 Yards
  • Format: 72-hole stroke play
  • Greens: Champion bermudagrass .090”
  • Fairways: Zeon zoysiagrass .425”
  • Rough: 419 bermudagrass 2.5”
  • Bunkers: 75
  • Water Hazard(s): 11 (In-Play on 11 Holes)
  • Average Green Size: 4,300 sq. ft.
  • Stimpmeter: 12.5+ ft.
  • Purse/ Winner: $20,000,000 / $3,600,000
  • FedEx Cup Points: 2,000
  • Field/ Cut: 70 Pros | No Cut
  • Playoff Holes: 18, 18, 11, 12, 18
  • Course Scoring Average:
    • 2022: 69.16 (-0.84), Rank 30 of 50
    • 2021: 69.05 (-0.95), Rank 32 of 51
    • 2020: 69.56 (-0.44), Rank 14 of 41

Course Architect:

  • Course Architect: Ron Prichard with consultants Hubert Green and Fuzzy Zoeller (1988)
  • Renovations: PGA Tour re-design (2004), Bunker redesign (2020)

 

Comparable Courses & Greens:

  • Comparable Courses:
    • East Lake Golf Club – TOUR Championship – RESULTS
    • TPC Sawgrass – THE PLAYERS Championship – RESULTS
    • Pebble Beach – AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am – RESULTS
    • PGA National – The Honda Classic – RESULTS
  • Comparable Location (Memphis, Tennessee):
    • Quail Hollow Club – Charlotte, North Carolina – Wells Fargo Championship
    • Keene Trace Golf Club – Nicholasville, Kentucky – Barbasol Championship
  • Comparable Yardage (7,243 Yards):
    • TPC Summerlin – 7,255 Yards – Shriners Children’s Open
    • TPC Sawgrass (Stadium Course)- 7,256 Yards – THE PLAYERS Championship
    • Torrey Pines Golf Course (North Course) – 7,258 Yards – Farmers Insurance Open
  • Comparable Greens (Champion bermudagrass .090”):
    • The Country Club of Jackson – Champion bermudagrass .110” – Sanderson Farms Championship
    • Sedgefield Country Club – Champion bermudagrass .120” – Wyndham Championship
    • Congaree Golf Club – Champion bermudagrass – THE CJ CUP
  • Comparable Average Green Size (4,300 sq. ft.):
    • Albany – 4,500 sq. ft. – Hero World Challenge

 

TV Information:

  • Round 1: Thursday, August 10th, 2023
    • Golf Channel – 2:00 PM – 6:00 PM ET
  • Round 2: Friday, August 11th, 2023
    • Golf Channel – 2:00 PM – 6:00 PM ET
  • Round 3: Saturday, August 12th, 2023
    • Golf Channel – 1:00 PM – 3:00 PM ET
    • CBS – 3:00 PM – 6:00 PM ET
  • Round 4: Sunday, August 13th, 2023
    • Golf Channel – 12:00 PM – 2:00 PM ET
    • CBS – 2:00 PM – 6:00 PM ET

 

Weather:

  • Thursday: AM Thunderstorms 86 F, 9 mp/h WSW, 78% Humidity,46% Chance of Rain
  • Friday: AM Thunderstorms 90 F, 8 mp/h SSW, 78% Humidity, 34% Chance of Rain
  • Saturday: AM Thunderstorms 92 F, 9 mp/h SSW, 77% Humidity, 58% Chance of Rain
  • Sunday: Partly Cloudy 93 F, 6 mp/h SSW, 72% Humidity, 16% Chance of Rain

 

FedEx Cup Playoff Format:

The FedEx Cup is a season-long points competition that culminated with the FedExCup Playoffs. The FedExCup Playoffs is a series of three events that determine the FedExCup Champion.

The top 70 players in the season-long standings qualify for the first of three events (The FedEx St. Jude Championship). This is the only event of the three to have a cut after 36 holes. After this week’s event, only the top 50 players will qualify for the next event, the BMW Championship. Following that tournament, the final event of the playoffs takes place, the TOUR Championship.

In the TOUR Championship, only the top 30 players qualify and the points leader in the FedExCup will start the event at 10-under par. The No. 2 player will start at 8 under. The No. 3 player starts at 7 under; the No. 4 player starts at 6 under; the No. 5 player starts at 5 under. Players 6-10 start at 4 under; players 11-15 start at 3 under; players 16-20 start at 2 under; players 21-25 start at 1 under; and players 26-30 start at even par.

You can click the following link to see the current FedExCup Standings.

 

Course/ Tournament History:

TPC Southwind has hosted a PGA Tour event every year since 1989. This course has some rare bragging rights as it’s one of the only courses to host three different PGA Tour events. From 1989-2018, the FedEx St. Jude Classic was held here. In 2019, the WGC-FedEx St. Jude Invitational replaced that event and was relocated from Firestone Country Club in Akron, Ohio. Up until 2021, TPC Southwind has hosted that event.

TPC Southwind’s first major renovation took place in 2004 with the main goal of “modernizing” the course. The course was lengthened out adding 11 new tees, and 15 new bunkers while enlarging three ponds and adding some additional foliage. The greens were also changed from bentgrass to Champion bermudagrass.

In 2020, the course underwent a minor renovation with every bunker being re-contoured in some sort. Some were also added making the course a little more difficult.

The FedEx St. Jude Championship replaced the Northern Trust as the first stop in the FedEx Cup Playoffs in 2022. This will be the second time that a FedExCup Playoff event has been held at this course.

  • 72-Hole Record (TPC Southwind):
    • 264, Brooks Koepka (2019), Abraham Ancer (2021), Hideki Matsuyama (2021), Sam Burns (2021)
  • 18-Hole Record (TPC Southwind):
    • 61, Tom Lewis (third round, 2020), Bob Estes (first round, 2001), Jay Delsing (fourth round, 1993)
  • 72-Hole Record (Event):
    • 254, Dustin Johnson (2020 – TPC Boston)
  • 18-Hole Record (Event):
    • 60, Dustin Johnson (Second round, 2020 – TPC Boston)

 

Course Guide/ Scorecard:

TPC Southwind is on the longer side measuring 7,243 yards. It ranks 17th out of 46 courses in terms of length. The fairways are on the narrower side, ranking 2nd of 46, with the average fairway width being 25.0 yards. The average green size is roughly 4,300 square feet which is on the smaller side when compared to the other courses on the PGA Tour. There are 75 bunkers which rank as the 22nd fewest out of the 46 courses.

The four Par 3’s range between 162 yards and 205 yards. The three Par 3’s on the had scoring averages under par with the exclusion being No. 14.

No. 11 is a smaller version of the famous 17th at TPC Sawgrass but with its own uniqueness. Despite its lack of distance, it provides players with a challenge as they’re hitting on to an island green. The green is fairly open with just one pot bunker guarding the front edge.

No. 14 is the signature Par 3, which requires players to carry their tee shot over water onto a severely undulated green.

The twelve par 4’s on the course provide a challenge with only a few scoring opportunities depending on the tee shot. Holes No. 5, 7, 9, 10, 12, 17, and 18 all have a scoring average over par last year.

No. 9 is a long dogleg to the right with a downhill second shot over a lake in front of the green. Players will aim at the right side of the fairway in hopes of making their approach shot that much easier. It’s one of the holes that reward the bombers off the tee.

No. 18 is a fantastic finishing hole that again, rewards distance off the tee. It’s a dogleg left where water comes into play every shot. The body of water runs parallel to the fairway throughout the entire hole, making a solid tee shot critical.

The two Par 5’s, No. 3 and No. 16 are both gettable in two. Players will need to take advantage of this scoring opportunity if they want to have success here.

No. 3 features a downhill tee shot that will give players an extra roll. Off the tee, players will try to position it along the left side of the fairway providing themselves a better angle into the green. Their approach shot is difficult as a lake guards the right side with a pair of bunkers on the left.

No. 16 is a dogleg left and the shorter of the two Par 5’s. As long as players are in the fairway off the tee, they’ll have a fairly easy shot into the green. A large bunker complex does surround the green and will come into play more if the pin is in the back left.

Image

Featured/ Signature Hole(s): 9, 11, 14, 18

You can click the following link for a hole-by-hole overview of the course.

 

Key Statistics:

  • Strokes Gained: Approach
  • Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green
  • Strokes Gained: Putting (Bermuda)
  • Driving Accuracy
  • Scrambling
  • Par 3 Scoring: 150 – 175 (x2)
  • Par 4 Scoring: 450 – 500 (x6)
  • Proximity: 150 – 175 Yards
  • Proximity: 175 – 200 Yards
  • Comparable Courses and Event History

 

The Field/ Odds:

There will be 70 players competing in this year’s FedEx St. Jude Championship.  Here are the current favorites in this week’s event:

Jon Rahm (+650) will make his first start since finishing T2 at The Open Championship. He has four wins on the PGA Tour this year which is the most of any player. Last year at this event, he finished T5 gaining strokes in every category. Outside of that, he’s only played at TPC Southwind two other times finishing T52 (2020 – WGC-FedEx St. Jude Invitational) and 7th (2019 – WGC-FedEx St. Jude Invitational).

Scottie Scheffler (+800) is coming off his second-worst finish of the season… T23 at The Open Championship. Before that, he had seven consecutive top-5 finishes. He’s also won twice this year at THE PLAYERS Championship (comp course) and the WM Phoenix Open. Last year, he missed the cut at the event, and in his two other trips to TPC Sawgrass, he finished 14th (2021 – WGC-FedEx St. Jude Invitational) and T15 (2020 – WGC-FedEx St. Jude Invitational).

Rory McIlroy (+800) has finished inside the top 10 in each of his last seven starts on the PGA Tour. During that span, he also picked up his second win of the season at the Genesis Scottish Open. In his most recent start, he finished T6 at The Open Championship. Last year at the FedEx St. Jude Championship, McIlroy missed the cut. His best finish at TPC Southwind was at the 2019 WGC-FedEx St. Jude Invitational (T4).

Patrick Cantlay (+1400) struggled overseas in his last two starts missing the cut at the Genesis Scottish Open and finishing T33 at The Open Championship. Before that, he had finished inside the top 20 in ten of his last twelve starts. Last year at the FedEx St. Jude Championship, Cantlay finished T57. His best finish at TPC Southwind was at the 2019 WGC-FedEx St. Jude Invitational (T12).

Xander Schauffele (+1600) has played at TPC Southwind five times before with his best finish coming at the 2020 WGC-FedEx St. Jude Invitational (T6). He’s finished inside the top 20 in ten of his last twelve starts.

 

  • Previous Winners in the Field (TPC Southwind):
    • Harris English (’13 – FedEx St. Jude Classic)
  • Previous Winners in the Field (Event):
    • Tony Finau (’21 – The Northern Trust), Jason Day (’15 – The Barclays)
  • Injury Concerns:
    • Tom Kim (wrist/ankle)
    • Hayden Buckley (rib)
    • Seamus Power (hip)
  • Notable Withdraws:
    • None

You can click the following link to see the most up-to-date odds.

You can click the following link to see the full field for this event and how they qualified.

 

Horses for Courses (TPC Southwind):

FedEx St. Jude Championship WGC FedEx St. Jude Invitational WGC FedEx St. Jude Invitational WGC FedEx St. Jude Invitational
TPC Southwind TPC Southwind TPC Southwind TPC Southwind
2022 2021 2020 2019
Collin Morikawa T5 T26 T20
Hideki Matsuyama T2 T20 T43
Matthew Fitzpatrick T5 T57 T6 T4
Sam Burns T20 T2
Jon Rahm T5 T52 7
Andrew Putnam T5 T24
Brian Harman T3 T36
Sepp Straka 2

 

Donkeys for Courses (TPC Southwind):

“Horses for Courses” is a phrase that is widely used and describes the best course/tournament fits. These are the players that have had success at the particular course/event. “Donkeys for Courses” is something I came up with that highlights the players who have struggled at a specific course/tournament.

FedEx St. Jude Championship WGC FedEx St. Jude Invitational WGC FedEx St. Jude Invitational WGC FedEx St. Jude Invitational
TPC Southwind TPC Southwind TPC Southwind TPC Southwind
2022 2021 2020 2019
Keegan Bradley MC T52 T61
Alex Smalley MC
Kurt Kitayama MC
Tom Hoge MC
Patrick Rodgers MC
Russell Henley MC
Chris Kirk MC
Mark Hubbard MC
Brandon Wu MC
Adam Hadwin 69 T72
Matthew NeSmith MC

 

Previous Winners/ Scores (TPC Southwind):

  • 2022: Will Zalatoris (-15) – (FedEx St. Jude Championship)
    • Price: 28-1
  • 2021: Abraham Ancer (-21) – (WGC-FedEx St. Jude Invitational)
    • Price: 50-1
  • 2020: Justin Thomas (-13) – (WGC-FedEx St. Jude Invitational)
    • Price: 12-1
  • 2019: Brooks Koepka (-16) – (WGC-FedEx St. Jude Invitational)
    • Price: 12-1
  • 2018: Dustin Johnson (-19) – (FedEx St. Jude Classic)
    • Price: 6-1

 

Previous Winners Scores & Prices (Event):

  • 2022: Will Zalatoris (-15) – TPC Southwind (FedEx St. Jude Championship)
    • Price: 28-1
  • 2021: Tony Finau (-20) – Liberty National Golf Club (The Northern Trust)
    • Price: 60-1
  • 2020: Dustin Johnson (-30) – TPC Boston (The Northern Trust)
    • Price: 20-1
  • 2019: Patrick Reed (-16) – Liberty National Golf Club (The Northern Trust)
    • Price: 55-1
  • 2018: Bryson Dechambeau (-18) – Ridgewood Country Club (The Northern Trust)
    • Price: 100-1

 

Picks (Outrights):

  • Viktor Hovland (+2000) – FanDuel
    • Risk 0.40 to win 8.00 Units
  • Collin Morikawa (+2500) – FanDuel
    • Risk 0.32 to win 8.00 Units
  • Tyrrell Hatton (+2500) – FanDuel
    • Risk 0.32 to win 8.00 Units
  • Tony Finau (+4000) – FanDuel
    • Risk 0.20 to win 8.00 Units

Total Risk on Outrights: 1.24 Units 

 

Picks (Top 20):

[You can find better odds on other books but I choose BetMGM since all ties are paid in full. It’s a small field this week so I’m expecting it to be pretty tight when it comes to the leaderboard.]

  • Tom Kim (-105) – BetMGM
    • Risk 1.05 to win 1.00 Units

I’m going to take a shot with Tom Kim this week despite him nursing an ankle injury that he suffered at The Open Championship. He held out of the Wyndham Championship where he got his first win last year but said in an interview earlier this week that it’s “all systems go” so where trusting him.

After he suffered that injury, he was still able to grind out a T2 finish at the Open Championship. Before that, he finished T6 at the Genesis Scottish Open. He struggled earlier this year but has found his form as of late. Last year at this event, he finished T13.

  • Brian Harman (+125) – BetMGM
    • Risk 1.00 to win 1.25Units

Brian Harman is coming off his first-ever Major Championship win at Royal Liverpool. Before that, he finished T12 at the Genesis Scottish Open, T9 at the Rocket Mortgage Classic, and T2 at the Travelers Championship. His approach play has been fantastic as of late gaining strokes in four of his last five starts. His putting has also been phenomenal gaining strokes in each of his last seven events. Last year at this event, Harman finished T3 gaining strokes in every category.

His ball-striking has been trending in the right direction which is crucial for this event based on the last few winner’s paths to success. While he’s not the longest of hitters off the tee, his accuracy will provide him an advantage given the penal rough this week.

  • J.T. Poston (+130) – BetMGM
    • Risk 1.00 to win 1.30 Units

J.T. Poston is another guy that is peaking at the right time heading into the playoffs. He’s finished inside the top 10 in four of his last five starts. Poston has gained strokes on approach in four of those five starts. His putting has also been much better as of late which has made a huge impact on his finishing position. J.T. does struggle a bit off the tee but his accuracy has been more consistent as of late when comparing it to his earlier starts this season. Last year at this event he finished T20. Based on the way his game’s been trending and his course experience, Poston is set up to play well again at this week’s event.

  • Byeong-Huh An (+138) – BetMGM
    • Risk 1.00 to win 1.38 Units

Byeong-Huh An has been playing some of his best golf as of late with a T2 finish at the Wyndham Championship, a T23 finish at The Open Championship, and a T3 finish at the Genesis Scottish Open. At the Wyndham, his approach game was the best it’s been all season long. He struggled with his putting for a while but has gained strokes in that category in each of his last four starts. The last time he played at TPC Southwind was in 2020 at the WGC-FedEx St. Jude Invitational where he finished T12. His game fits this style of course and given his recent form, he should have another solid week.

Total Risk on Top 20: 4.05 Units

 

Bonus Bet:

  • Rickie Fowler 1st Round Top 10 (+275) – BetMGM

 

Total Risk on the FedEx St. Jude Championship: 5.29 Units 

 

Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting. Any feedback whether positive or negative, is always encouraged.

MLB Tuesday Free Play – Sports Betting

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111-94-5 up 9.9 units in 2023 MLB Thus Far on 7/17/23!

63% for 2022/2023 NBA sides and totals!   22-13 up 6.5 units.  14% ROI

55% All Time NFL Sides, Teasers, Parlays, Props and Totals!  5.21% ROI

56% 2022/2023 NFL Season 136-109-11 in Sides/Totals/Teasers/Season props up 38.5U

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63% FOR 2022 COLLEGE BOWL SEASON UP 27 UNITS!

54% Lifetime All Plays in College Basketball – 3% ROI

38% Lifetime UFC On All Plays 3% ROI

62% 2022 March Madness College Basketball Plays at 30% ROI!!!

 

Cardinals vs Rays -170 O/U 8.5

These free plays have done well this season and I am hoping to give you another winner.  The Rays are only three games back to the Orioles and they need to get back in it.  The good news is that they play the last place Cardinals who are 49-64 for the year thus far.  Zach Eflin takes the mound for the Crds boasting a 3.46 ERA and a 2.93 FIP.  Miles Mikolas will give it a go for the red birds at a 3.95 ERA and a 4.25 FIP.  Both pitchers are righties.  Tampa ranks 4th in wOBA vs right handed pitchers this year while the Cardinals rank 5th.  Pretty good for both teams, but the kicker is the bullpen.   The Cardinals are worse at hitting against lefties and the Rays will have a full bullpen after a nice days rest from Monday.  The Rays have something to play for today while the Cardinals should be in tank mode, I don’t care mode, or whatever mode.  Take the Rays.

Rays -170 – 1 star

Podcast 48 – 23 – NFL Preseason Week 1 – Sports Betting

We have a great show for you today!   Kiev O’Neil @OBKiev goes solo to talk some NFL preseason football!  Kiev goes game by game and talks about the coaching and team motivations.   He also discusses some lines that have been over-adjusted in the marketplace.  Should you have any questions for the podcast, or games that you want us to cap during our shows, please message us at Info@TheOddsBreakers.com.  Have a wonderful week!

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Offer expires September 7th, 2023

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Two Teams Trending in the Wrong Direction Square OFF

Two Teams Trending in the Wrong Direction Square OFF

What was once the hottest team in baseball and quite possibly “America’s Team”, has come to a halt! Currently losers of 6 straight, while giving up 60 runs in those 6 games. Yes, 60 I know. Granted 36 were in two games, still jaw dropping, nonetheless. The bad news for Reds starter Brandon Williamson other than having a 4.85 ERA and a 5.72 xERA, the Marlins clobber lefties. Hitting .303 vs them in 2023. Williamson also ranks at the bottom of the league in xBA, xSLG and xERA/xOBA. Pitching has continued to be a problem for them all season and I don’t see it being any different Monday night. Texas will now square off in a new series versus a team WITH pitching, not a good combo. On the mound for Miami is young rookie phenom, Eury Perez. Who is already being compared by the experts to some great pitchers! Home is where the heart is for him, but is it? His away splits can be slightly misleading, remove his disaster of a start vs Atlanta before the break and he only has 3 away starts of the 11. Oh, and one of the three was at Coors Field, where he did not give up a home run and was his first TRUE away start. Another stat I found intriguing, RISP are batting .106 against him. That’s only 5 hits in 47 AB’s!

Now why have we not seen him in the majors in over a month? Quite simply to monitor his innings. The Marlins optioned him back to the minor leagues on July 7. Prior to this season, Perez had never thrown more than 78 innings in a season with the organization. After his July 6th start, he was already at 84 1/3 total innings between MLB and the minor-leagues. He’s now fresh, more confident than ever and should be the burst this Marlins squad needs. Losers of 15 of 20 since the break and come into this game losing 6/7 and four straights, yet still sit half a game outside the wild card.

Due to the Marlins struggles and being on the road, I was hoping we would get plus money on them. The fact they opened as favorites (-125) and will go off as favorites on the road (currently -152) is all I need to know. Let’s back Eury and the Marlins with a unit upgrade!

Marlins ML -126 (FanDuel) risk 1.89u to win 1.5u

Mu customers got this number in at -126, tremendous closing line value. As well as 3 other premium plays that are also getting great CLV. If you’re looking to sign-up for all my premium plays, click the link below to get involved. Be sure to apply for the promocode Football2023 for 50% off! That’s only $50 for 30+ days’ worth of picks. You do the math, very little per day. Also be sure to follow me on Twitter @TrustRocco.

Membership Checkout – TheOddsBreakers

UFC Nashville Free Play – Sports Betting

SE PROMO CODE Football2023TO GET $100 OFF EVERY FOOTBALL PACKAGE AND $50 OFF EVERY MONTHLY MEMBERSHIP FOR THE FIRST MONTH!  OR GET KIEV O’NEIL’S MEMBERSHIP FOR LIFE AT $75/mo  Click here:   https://theoddsbreakers.com/premium-plays/
Offer expires September 7th, 2023

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To get Kiev’s premium winners, and to support his hard work at The OddsBreakers, please Click here to get his no obligation membership packages!!!   We believe in getting the best of the number and it is the only way that we do business!

111-94-5 up 9.9 units in 2023 MLB Thus Far on 7/17/23!

63% for 2022/2023 NBA sides and totals!   22-13 up 6.5 units.  14% ROI

55% All Time NFL Sides, Teasers, Parlays, Props and Totals!  5.21% ROI

56% 2022/2023 NFL Season 136-109-11 in Sides/Totals/Teasers/Season props up 38.5U

55% All Time College Football Sides, Teasers, Parlays, Props and Totals!  4.75% ROI

63% FOR 2022 COLLEGE BOWL SEASON UP 27 UNITS!

54% Lifetime All Plays in College Basketball – 3% ROI

42% Lifetime UFC On All Plays 5% ROI

62% 2022 March Madness College Basketball Plays at 30% ROI!!!

Jeremiah Wells vs Carlston Harris -105

This should be a fun fight today in Nash-Vegas.   Wells from the US of A is coming into this one on a tear winning six fights in a row.   He is a forward stepping BJJ fighter who can do it standing as well as on the ground.  His opponent Carleston Harris is from a small country known as Guyana.  He has done quite well in the UFC minus one hickup vs the best contender in the middleweight class in Shavkat Rakhmonov.  I will give him a pass for that one, but I will not give him a pass for the weaker strength of schedule that he has fought otherwise compared to Wells.   Jeremiah has beaten Matt Semelsberger and Court McGee while Carlston’s best accomplishment was against Jared Gordon.   Wells is the better wrestler in this bout with 3.93 takedowns per minute to 3.04 for Harris.  Wells also has defended takedowns 100% of his fights.   Gonna go with Wells here at the short price.   I expect this fight to end inside the distance being that both of these fighters are ever so aggressive.

Jeremiah Wells -115 – 1.5 stars

Nascar Pick 8/6/2023

Nascar H2H Matchup Joey Logano Over Bubba Wallace -114 @BetRivers Sportsbook

Risk 3.42 Units To Win 3 Units

Coming off a winner last week with Keselowski over Reddick and going 2-1 since posting my plays here at The OddsBreakers. Will look for another winner this Sunday as Nascar is headed to Michigan International Speedway and I like my chances here with Joey Logano over Bubba Wallace. Logano has had an average finish at Michigan of 10.6 in the last 8 races and also picked up a 1st place finish here in 2019. Wallace has an average finish at Michigan of 18.5 and in the last 8 has only beaten Logano twice here at this track. Michigan is a fast track with low tire wear just like Texas Motor Speedway and Logano has yet to lose here heads up against Wallace since he entered the Cup Series back in 2018. The last 8 races at Texas Logano has had an average finish of 9.3 and Wallace with a pathetic average finish of 23.6. Logano has shown more speed than Wallace recently and at a fast track like Michigan you need speed so take Joey Logano over Bubba Wallace.

Rocco’s SPORTS Mission: Season 1, Podcast 10. RB Landscape in the NFL, Podcast Play and how I do NOT go on TILT

Roccos SPORTS Mission

Rocco’s SPORTS Mission: Season 1, Podcast 10 is available for your listening pleasure.

I will cover the RB landscape currently going on in the NFL, then we will recap our Podcast Play from last weekend, as well as go over my Podcast Play this weekend. End it a “Reflect with Rocco” segment, going over how I do NOT go on TILT.

Would you like all of my Premium Plays? Head over to theoddsbreakers.com and look at all of my available packages. My monthly one gives you access to every sport’s premium plays. If you’re looking for action and content all the time, that’s personally my favorite. It gives you every sport for a small amount daily. Just use the promocode Football2023 to receive 50% off!

I’ve done extremely well with football in the last few years. If you followed me on Twitter @TrustRocco the last few seasons, you have seen the damage I can do. We had some unbelievable weeks! My football package is UP and available, just use the promocode Football2023 to receive 20% off! Be sure to sign up early and don’t miss any of the action for this upcoming season.

I just finished the NBA season up over 17 units, all plays documented on Twitter and BetStamp. I also finished the NCAAB season up 16 units as well. Put your trust in Rocco.

MLB 8/4/23 Friday Freebie – Sports Betting

USE PROMO CODE Football2023 TO GET $100 OFF EVERY FOOTBALL PACKAGE AND $50 OFF EVERY MONTHLY MEMBERSHIP FOR THE FIRST MONTH!  OR GET KIEV O’NEIL’S MEMBERSHIP FOR $75 PER MONTH FOR LIFE!  Click here:   https://theoddsbreakers.com/premium-plays/
Offer expires September 7, 2023

Follow our FREE PICKS telegram channel:  https://t.me/TheOddsBreakersFreePicks

Follow Kiev O’Neil’s NEW personal FREE PICKS telegram Channel:  https://t.me/KievONeil

To get Kiev’s premium winners, and to support his hard work at The OddsBreakers, please Click here to get his no obligation membership packages!!!   We believe in getting the best of the number and it is the only way that we do business!

111-94-5 up 9.9 units in 2023 MLB Thus Far on 7/17/23!

63% for 2022/2023 NBA sides and totals!   22-13 up 6.5 units.  14% ROI

55% All Time NFL Sides, Teasers, Parlays, Props and Totals!  5.21% ROI

56% 2022/2023 NFL Season 136-109-11 in Sides/Totals/Teasers/Season props up 38.5U

55% All Time College Football Sides, Teasers, Parlays, Props and Totals!  4.75% ROI

63% FOR 2022 COLLEGE BOWL SEASON UP 27 UNITS!

54% Lifetime All Plays in College Basketball – 3% ROI

42% Lifetime UFC On All Plays 5% ROI

62% 2022 March Madness College Basketball Plays at 30% ROI!!!

Rays vs Tigers – +130 O/U 9

This is a bit of a funky line to me.   I mean, I know that Reese Olson has done a better job for Detroit compared to the others with a 4.71 ERA, but why are the Rays this small of a favorite to such a poor team?    Zack Littell takes the helm for Tampa with a 4.2 ERA and a 3.51 FIP with most of his time at the Yankees and he performed quite well @ Houston on July 30th.  The Rays are number three in wRC+ while the Tigers are 27th.   The Rays bullpen is where they lack some at 22nd in FIP, but Detroit’s isn’t exactly amazing at 15th respectively.   Gonna take the Rays who are still fighting to be on top in the AL East.

Rays -142 – 1 star