Season 1, Podcast 4 of Rocco’s SPORTS Mission is available for your listening pleasure. The “Crow” episode.
I will go over future bet #1 for the upcoming NFL season, then we will dive into a few MLB series this weekend. As always, end it with Reflect with Rocco.
If you would like all my Premium Plays for just baseball, or every sport? Head over to theoddsbreakers.com and look at all my available packages. My monthly one gives you access to every sport’s premium plays. If you’re looking for action and content all the time, that’s personally my favorite. It gives you every sport for a very small amount daily. I’ve done very well with football in the last few years. If you followed me on Twitter @TrustRocco the last few seasons, you have seen the damage I can do. We had some unbelievable weeks! I just finished the NBA season up over 17 units, all plays documented on Twitter and BetStamp. I also finished the NCAAB season up 16 units as well.
We have a great show for you today! Kiev O’Neil goes solo to break down the rest of our NFL previews! First, Kiev talks about some new promotions at The OddsBreakers as well as a recap from last weekend. Next, Kiev gets the AFC East with some win totals and future plays that he likes. After that, we go into the powerful AFC west with some surprising plays as well as the methodology he uses to determine value. Finally, Kiev talks some UFC on ABC Josh Emmet vs Ilia Topuria with some FREE PLAYS! Should you have any questions for the podcast, or games that you want us to cap during our shows, please message us at Info@TheOddsBreakers.com. Have a wonderful week!
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Head over to my Twitter account @TrustRocco for more free picks as well as some awesome content. Also take a listen to my podcast, Rocco’s SPORTS Mission, available on theoddsbreakers.com website, as well as Spotify and Apple Podcasts! 8-7-1, up a little over a unit on Podcast Plays this month.
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Who doesn’t love a middle of the week free play!
Boston-Minnesota under 8.5 (DraftKings -105) risk 1.31u to win 1.25u
Let’s dive into why I like the under for tonight’s match-up between the Red Sox and Twins in Minnesota. For starters, the game being in Minnesota is critical for tonight’s play. Boston has been a strong over play at Fenway being 24-15 to the over. While only hovering around .500 on the road. They were 8-4 to the under going into this series, until they blitzed Pablo Lopez last night for 4 runs, eventually scoring 9. The Twins on the other hand are averaging 3 runs per game in their last 6 games, but the o/u splitting 3-3 in the 6 due to some rough pitching. Bailey Ober, the under machine takes the mound tonight for the Twins and looks to cool off the Red Sox bats. In the last 15 games Ober has started, the under is 15-0 going back to last season, while being 10-0 in 2023! He’s sporting a 2.65 ERA this season and a 1.88 ERA/0.88 WHIP at night in 2023. The key to Bailey is to get him out of the 1st inning. He has a gaudy 5.40 ERA in inning #1 this season, but cools off quickly after that, settling into the game. Look to add a live bet on the under tonight after the 1st inning commences. Kutter Crawford is on the bump for Boston and is quietly having a successful year, but after a few bad starts his stats and ERA are completely misguided. His exit velocity is an astounding 86.1, ranking him at the tops of the majors in this category. His chase rate ranks almost 1st in baseball, and hard-hit balls are connecting at 33.3% also ranking him near the top. With an expected batting average of .222. He doesn’t usually go more than 4 innings on average, but the Sox pen have a superb ERA of 1.75 in their last 10. Back the under tonight!
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To get Kiev’s premium winners, and to support his hard work at The OddsBreakers, pleaseClick here to get his no obligation membership packages!!! We believe in getting the best of the number and it is the only way that we do business!
80-69-2 up 6.5 units in 2023 MLB Thus Far on 6/13/23!
63% for 2022/2023 NBA sides and totals! 22-13 up 6.5 units. 14% ROI
55% All Time NFL Sides, Teasers, Parlays, Props and Totals! 5.21% ROI
56% 2022/2023 NFL Season 136-109-11 in Sides/Totals/Teasers/Season props up 38.5U
55% All Time College Football Sides, Teasers, Parlays, Props and Totals! 4.75% ROI
63% FOR 2022 COLLEGE BOWL SEASON UP 27 UNITS!
54% Lifetime All Plays in College Basketball – 3% ROI
42% Lifetime UFC On All Plays 5% ROI
62% 2022 March Madness College Basketball Plays at 30% ROI!!!
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Rangers vs White Sox +118 O/U 8.5
This should be a fun game in Chicago. The Rangers are looking to hold strong in the AL West while the White Sox are about eight games below .500, yet not out of it. Looking at the pitching, we have right hander Nathan Eovaldi for the Rangers boasting a 2.59 ERA and a 2.85 FIP. For the White Sox Dylan Cease takes the helme who Ceased to be a good pitcher this year with a 4.31 ERA and a 4.05 FIP. When Cease steps up in competition, he tends to falter and give up a lot of runs. The glaring thing for me here is that the Rangers thrive against right handed pitchers ranking 2nd in wRC+ at 118 (100 is average) while the White Sox have been terrible against righties ranking 29th at an 81 wRC+. Neither bullpen is all that great, but the rangers bullpen actually ranks 14th in FIP while the White sox rank 26th. I think this number is too short not to take here with the Rangers. Let’s throw a unit on them.
The AFC South – If I could completely skip this division with apologies to the Jaguars, I certainly would. Maybe we can get creative here. The AFC South is once again certainly the worst division in the NFL. The Jaguars are sitting pretty on top with six very winnable games. This year we will see a least two, if not three quarterback changes when Will Levis gets going for the Titans. The AFC South plays the AFC North and the NFC East which is pretty rough, and a lot tougher than this division in itself. The biggest blessing that a 2023 NFL team could get from their schedule is to get to play the AFC South. A huge congrats to the NFC East and the AFC North. Let’s dig in a bit too see if we could eek out some value.
Schedule: Medium Easy – at large vs Kansas City, vs Buffalo* (in London) vs San Francisco
Schedule Last Year: Medium Easy
Key losses: RT Jawaan Taylor, OLB Arden Key, S Chris Wingard, TE Chris Manhertz, CB Shaquill Griffin, WR Marvin Jones, DT Corey Peters
Key additions: K Brandon McManus, RT Josh Wells, WR Calvin Ridley back suspension
Key Draft Picks: T Anton Harrison, TE Brenton Strange, LB Ventrell Miller, Edge Tyler Lacy, Edge Yasir Abdullah, S Antonio Johnson and a bunch more.
Summary: This Jaguars team was wonderful last year minus some dumb mistakes. Jacksonville lost some easier games throughout the early part of the season. They might have beaten the Super Bowl champion Chiefs had they not fumbled late inside the Chief’s five yard line. First, let’s talk about the bad. There really isn’t too much to say minus that the Jaguars lost some pretty good players to free agency. They are certainly taking a chance with former Oklahoma Sooner Left Tackle Anton Harrison being slotted into the starting position right away due to the loss of Jawaan Taylor, and the suspension of Cam Robinson for PEDs. The good news is that these team has a good scheme to have Trevor get rid of the ball quickly. Press Taylor has been a very underrated offensive coordinator. Other than that, I expect this Jaguars team to be fierce. They certainly had a ton of draft picks, and with any hope, will hit on a few of them to improve this defense from 12th in EPA, hopefully to top 8. The good news for the Jaguars is that their schedule looks very promising. They do have some rough games vs some at large opponents, but they are all at home if you count London as their secondary home. How can you not love the fact that they get to play the teams in their division twice? Jacksonville also doesn’t get any teams coming off of bye weeks. We have to remember that this team is getting Calvin Ridley back from suspension so that has to count for something. I can see good things happening for the Jaguars, and I would not be surprised if they have the best regular season record in the AFC.
My Number: 9.86
Action – Jacksonville to win AFC +1600
Jacksonville Jaguars Power Rating: – 3.75
2. Tennessee Titans –
Vegas win total: 7.5 juiced to under -130
2022 Wins: 7
Pythagorean Wins: 6.82
Schedule: Medium Easy – At large games vs Chargers, @ Miami, vs Seattle
Schedule Last Year: Medium
Key losses: G Nate Davis, DE Demarcus Walker, WR Robert Woods, LB David Long, OLB Bud Dupree, DE Mario Edwards, LT Taylor Lewan
Key additions: OC Tim Kelly, T Andre Dillard, OLB Arden Key, T Daniel Brunskill, LB Azeez Al-Shaair, CB Sean Bunting
Key Draft Picks: T Peter Skoronski, QB Will Levis, RB Ryjae Spears
Summary: The Titans were one win away from stealing the wildcard spot from the Jaguars, but their Pythagorean number would have said that they were very lucky. This team was a front office mess over the last two years. Tennessee sure knows how to piss off a quarterback. Say what you want about Ryan Tannehill, but he is a solid starter, and this Will Levis thing is only going to piss him off even more this offseason. Tennessee has promoted Tim Kelly from passing coordinator to offensive coordinator coming into this season. Kelly squired behind Bill O’Brian, and in his short tenure as the offensive coordinator in in Houston, the team went 4-13. What could go wrong? From a skill positions perspective, I really do not see much talent past an aging Derek Henry who probably should be traded or let go. The defense should once again be solid after they filled some holes in free agency, but I feel that the Titan’s front office also created some holes due to free agency. In 2022 the Titans ranked 30th in passing yards per game. They struggled to score points in almost every game. I see a very bad offense going into 2023. The good news is that the Titans schedule is pretty favorable this year as they get +11 rest days as well as getting the Chargers early, and Miami late. I want to play the Chargers early due to the new offense under Kellen Moore, and Miami late due to the potentially head injuries which could happen to Tua. This win total is pretty low as it is, but even with the schedule, I have to still lean under.
My Number: 6.91
Action: Lean
Tennessee Titans Power Rating: -2.25
3. Houston Texans –
Vegas win total: 6.5 juiced to the under – 130
2022 Wins: 3.5
Pythagorean Wins: 4.93
Schedule: Medium Easy – at large vs Arizona, vs Denver, @ New York Jets
Schedule Last Year: Easy
Key losses: Coach Lovie Smith, DE Ogbonnia Okoronkwo, DE Rasheem Green, C Justin Britt, G AJ Cann, DE Mario Addison
Key additions: WR Robert Woods, S Jimmy Ward, DT Sheldon Rankings, TE Dalton Schultz, QB Case Keenum, CB Tremon Smith, CB Shaquill Griffin, DT Hassan Ridgeway, RB Devin Singletary, DE Chea Winovich and a bunch more.
Key Draft Picks: QB CJ Stroud, Edge Will Anderson, C Juice Scruggs, and a bunch of hope
Summary: This Texans team like most of this division, has a very boneheaded front office. How the heck are you going to allow the Bears to take the 1st pick of the draft by allowing Lovie to coach that last game? Now the team has to pretend that they wanted CJ Stroud all along, and maybe he might even be the better quarterback over the rest of the draft, but they still could have traded down a spot and had gotten him anyways. For the bad mistakes over the past few years, the Texans were extremely active in free agency and this defense might even look half way respectable with Demeco Ryans as head coach, Matt Burke as defensive coordinator, and Bobby Slowik as offensive coordinator who hopefully learned a lot from Kyle Shanahan in San Francisco. Although This team kinda got screwed on their fourth place at large games against Denver and the New York Jets, This team could be sneaky ok by the middle of the 2023 NFL season. The CJ Stroud and Will Anderson picks from the 2023 NFL draft were one hell of a 1-2 punch. Now with John Mechie trending healthy and the Robert Woods acquisition, maybe this team can eventually be somewhat respectable. Lots of wait and see, but I am somewhat optimistic here.
My Number: 6.72 wins
Action: Strong Lean Over
Houston Texans Power Rating: -4.5
4. Indianapolis Colts –
Vegas win total: 6.5 juiced to the over -135
2022 Wins: 4.5
Pythagorean Wins: 5.93
Schedule: Easy – vs LA Rams, New England (in Frankfurt Germany), vs Las Vegas
Schedule Last Year: Easy
Key losses: Coaches Jeff Saturday and Frank Reich, QB Matt Ryan, QB Nick Foles, LB Bobby Okereke, CB Brandon Facyson, WR Parris Campbell, S Rodney McLeod
Key additions: Coach Shane Steichen, DE Samson Ebukam, K Matt Gay, LB EJ Speed, DT Taven Bryan, QB Garner Minshew, WR Isaiah McKenzie
Whom they drafted: QB Anthony Richardson, CB Julius Brents, WR Josh Downs, T Blake Freeland and a bunch of late dudes.
Summary: Some say that the Houston Texans are the worst team in football. Some say it is the Cardinals, or the Buccaneers. Well they are all wrong. The worst team in football is the Indianapolis Colts and I am not even sure that it’s close. The Colts have the worst ownership in the NFL, and looking at other owners such as the Fords and the McCaskies, that is really saying something. So the Colts were “supposed” to be the best team in their division last year, but they faltered all the way to third due to pure incompetence from leadership. Both the head coach and the interim coach Jeff Saturday was fired last season and I am not even sure how much of the fault that they should bear. Was Matt Ryan that bad of a quarterback? He wasn’t with the Falcons. Transitioning to this year, new coach Shane Steichen will take over the offense with help from his new OC Jim Bob Cooter. Now if that isn’t a name for southern football, I do not know what is. Defensive Coordinator Gus Bradley remains in place who actually wasn’t the main problem with this team, but as far as talent goes, this team certainly lacks it on defense minus maybe Shaq Leonard and a few overpriced guys. The worst move of the 2023 year thus far was drafting the most over-rated quarterback prospect in the draft in Anthony Richardson from Florida. Richardson is fast and strong, but he will not be able to run much in the NFL if teams do not respect the pass. Richardson was 54% accurate last year and I do not expect him to develop for quite some time if ever. Gardner Minshew will give it his best throwing to Michael Pittman and Jelani Woods. If there is any upside on this team, it’s that they at least still have Jonathan Taylor at running back coming back from injury, and an easier schedule for 2023. The Colts also just have only seven true away games with the neutral one in Frankfurt. Even after all that, I have the Colts only winning 4.96 games. Taking the under
My Number: 4.96
Action – Under
Indianapolis Colt’s Power Rating: -7.5
*Blue means not signed or picked up by an NFL team
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To get Kiev’s premium winners, and to support his hard work at The OddsBreakers, pleaseClick here to get his no obligation membership packages!!! We believe in getting the best of the number and it is the only way that we do business!
80-69-2 up 6.5 units in 2023 MLB Thus Far on 6/13/23!
63% for 2022/2023 NBA sides and totals! 22-13 up 6.5 units. 14% ROI
55% All Time NFL Sides, Teasers, Parlays, Props and Totals! 5.21% ROI
56% 2022/2023 NFL Season 136-109-11 in Sides/Totals/Teasers/Season props up 38.5U
55% All Time College Football Sides, Teasers, Parlays, Props and Totals! 4.75% ROI
63% FOR 2022 COLLEGE BOWL SEASON UP 27 UNITS!
54% Lifetime All Plays in College Basketball – 3% ROI
42% Lifetime UFC On All Plays 5% ROI
62% 2022 March Madness College Basketball Plays at 30% ROI!!!
If you want to take ownership of your health, try AG1 and get a FREE 1-year supply of Vitamin D AND 5 Free AG1 Travel Packs with your first purchase. Go to drinkAG1.com/oddsbreakers
Guardians vs Diamondbacks -145 O/U 8
This should be a fun pitching matchup today according to a lower total. Tristen McKenzie takes the rock for the Guardians who was a 4.5 ERA and a 2.78 FIP. Signs of positive regression? I honestly do not know because Tristen has only thrown for 10 innings this year. In 2022 he had a 2.96 ERA and a 3.59 FIP. The Diamondback’s Ace Zach Gallen takes the mound today boasting a 3.09 ERA with a 2.4 FIP over 84 innings. That is some very good numbers on a large sample size. The Guardian’s bullpen is above average while the Diamondback’s bullpen is below, but the Guardians had to use more pitchers in their matchup yesterday trying to close out the Padres. I could see some fatigue here. I also love the bats in the desert state with Arizona ranking 10th in wRC+ and the Guardians ranking 28th. Take the snakes!
Season 1, Podcast 3 of Rocco’s SPORTS Mission is available for your listening pleasure.
I will start with a recap the NBA Finals. Then I will recap week 1 of the CFL, and preview week 2. Go over last week’s MLB series and give you a new series for this upcoming weekend. As always, I will end it with a beautiful segment of “Reflect with Rocco.”
Enjoy everybody! Please follow me on Twitter @TrustRocco.
The Redblacks of Ottawa head home for their home opener to face Calgary. Both teams are off losses in week 1 with disappointing play from their QB’s, but if you watch the film, Arbuckle did not play anywhere near as bad as the numbers would suggest. In interception #1, Acklin was wide open down the field and pulled up on his route instead of continuing to run, making the ball look overthrown for an INT. The next two picks were also thrown down the field into double coverage, with 1 of the 2 just being a glorified punt. What I found fascinating about Ottawa was the heart and poise they showed after being down 10-0 just 9 minutes into the game. In drive #1 for Montreal, they went right down the field and scored. After a 2 and out for Ottawa, the Alouettes returned the punt into the redzone but were held to a field goal. After that it was all the Redblacks defense, forcing 6 sacks, and essentially stopping Montreal on the ground all game. I absolutely loved the intensity from Ottawa, on the road none-the-less, and the defensive play calling from their DC Barron Miles, initiating the blitz at all the right times. I think their defense takes this game over causing key turnovers in plus territory making the offense’s life much easier. I also expect a better game from Arbuckle as he will utilize Acklin’s speed to beat the Stamps and continue drives on 2nd down. The books are giving Ottawa zero respect in their home opener, so let’s take advantage of a bad line and make this our first unit upgrade of the season on the Redblacks getting the points.
Friday June 16th, 9:00pm ET
Winnipeg at Saskatchewan +6.5, 47.5
Winnipeg -6.5 (BetRivers -110) risk 1.1u to win 1u
The Blue Bombers made quite an opening statement in their home opener last week vs the Ti-Cats. Yet the final score doesn’t do quite the justice it should be receiving. Winnipeg was up 27-4 at half, but due to some sloppy play in the second half they let Hamilton crawl back into it with a defensive and special teams TD. Most of Hamilton’s yards took place with explosive plays when facing a big deficit. Now I’m not saying the Bomber defense played anywhere near as good as we’ve been accustomed to in recent years, they most surely struggled. I do believe between the sloppy play and near Hamilton comeback it was a wake-up call for them. Which is why I am on the Blue Bombers in week #2. I don’t usually recommend backing a near touchdown road favorite, but there are always exceptions to the rule. I believe this is the correct spot to throw the ’book’ out the window and back Winnipeg. Saskatchewan escaped with a narrow victory in Edmonton vs the bottom feeder Elks. Yes, I have stated Edmonton is going to be better this year, but that’s foreseeing to be seen yet. While Edmonton was better offensively, defensively not so much. The Roughriders were able to run for 135 yards on them, which is virtually where all their offense came from. Running for 135 yards on Winnipeg will be a whole different story, which puts the pigskin completely in Trevor Harris’s hands. Keeping up with Zach Collaros will be virtually impossible as his success vs the Riders has been second to none for a long time now. You must go back to October 5th, 2019, the last time the Riders were able to beat Winnipeg. In those previous 7 meetings Winnipeg is 7-0 SU and 5-2 ATS, with an ATS margin of nearly +12 points. Bombers QB Zach Collaros was brilliant in week 1 and now gets to face a defense that he has averaged 266 yards per game in his last 7, while throwing 15 TD’s and only 4 interceptions. With 3 of the INT’s coming in one contest. In 2022 he was perfect; in 3 games he threw 10 TD’s and 0 interceptions. Winnipeg was 4-1 last season as touchdown or more favorites. I have no problem backing them in this position, so we are laying the points on the road for a full unit.
Saturday June 17th, 7:00pm ET
Edmonton at B.C. -7, 45.5
B.C. ML -280 (DraftKings) risk 2.1u to win 0.75u
Am I really backing back-to-back favorites? It’s opening night for the Lions, they get an extra 2 days to prepare and get healthy, and they face arguably the worst defense in the league. You bet I am, but not quite to the same degree in this one as I’m not convinced B.C. will cover the 7 points. On paper how is Edmonton going to keep up with this Lion offense. It surely won’t be defensively, or will it? The Elks got shredded on the ground in week 1 vs the lowly Roughriders, and now must face Taquan Mizzell who ran for 81 yards in Calgary week 1, as well as dual threat QB Vernon Adams who can take off at any time. Edmonton will need to keep a spy on him to prevent that from happening, which in return should open the field for WR Dominique Rhymes and company. Yes, I am much higher than most on Edmonton this year and I believe they will start to improve in certain areas, but beating the likes of the Lions compared to the Riders is night and day. Look I was completely wrong about Adams so far, although it has only been one week, I don’t see the narrative changing, yet. I think Edmonton will get far behind in this one, then Cornelius and Lewis will start to mount a comeback but come up short. This is why I will back B.C. on the money-line as I think the point-spread is spot on the number. I have no trouble laying the big juice as I don’t see in any realm the Elks winning this game outright. Let’s go LIONS!
Sunday June 18th, 7:00pm ET
Hamilton at Toronto +2, 46.5
1H: Hamilton -0.5 (SuperBook -110) risk 0.55u to win 0.5
Hamilton ML -130 (BetRivers) risk 1.3u to win 1u
Again, the Tigercat’s have one of the more intriguing headlines of the weekend. Bo-Levi and company head to Toronto to face the defending champion Argonauts. Yet, personnel might look slightly different than the 4 contests last season, where Toronto was victorious in 3 of the 4. Mitchell is now the head of the offense in Hamilton who played well ‘enough’ in week 1 and Bethel-Thompson, Toronto’s 22’ QB is heading for the NFL, or at least trying to. Which leaves Chad Kelly as their 2023 QB. It’s also his season debut as the Argo’s got the week 1 bye. I think this is a tough spot for Toronto. They catch a Tigercat team who got rid of the nerves, ‘week 1 mistakes’, were able to start to gel as the new pieces start to form some chemistry and their game speed will be much higher. Butler dazzled in his Ti-cat debut running for 66 yards on 11 carries and scoring his first Hamilton touchdown. He was unable to get anything going through the pass game, as Winnipeg kept him contained. Facing Toronto could be a different story, as 2022 Tigercat RB Don Jackson had two explosive games via the air vs Toronto last season. Game 1 was able to grab 8 receptions for 67 yards and a TD, and game 3, had 6 catches for 52 yards. Look for a big game with Butler on Sunday night! I will look to back Hamilton in the 1st half, due to the game speed will be difficult for the Argo’s early. I will also back them on the ML for the game Sunday, looking for Bo-Levi Mitchell to get back to his winning ways.
We have a great show for you today! Patrick Gates @GatorBetting from @ExpectedBetsFor and Brady Kannon @LasVegasGolfer from @Heatsrokespod come on to break down the 2023 US Open at the Los Angeles Country Club! First, Kiev recaps the weekend with the Belmont and his NBA season at 63% at 12% ROI. Next, Brady and Patrick come on and they get right into the US Open championship. What is the course like in LA? What are the best metrics to handicap these golfers at this venue? Who are we playing to win? Who are we fading in Matchups? Then, Kiev gets into the AFC South with a big preview and some plays that he has made for the 2023 NFL season. Finally, Kiev breaks down some UFC on ESPN with some Free Plays to finish out the show! Should you have any questions for the podcast, or games that you want us to cap during our shows, please message us at Info@TheOddsBreakers.com. Have a wonderful week!
If you want to subscribe to support us and get some very frequent winners please Click Here to become a member of The OddsBreakers and gain access to premium plays BEFORE the line moves! Or, you can visit theoddsbreakers.com and click shop and pick one of our great handicappers including Kiev O’Neil @OBKiev at only $84 per month on a 1 year subscription! You could also support us at Patreon.com for only $10 a month to help us out and thank us for some free plays as well as get some extra benefits and merchandise.
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