Game 1 of the Stanley Cup Finals takes place tonight between the Florida Panthers and Vegas Golden Knights. I’ll break down my best bets along with a few player props to take a look at.
Matchups:
Florida Panthers @ Vegas Golden Knights
Time: 8:00 PM ET
Series: Florida Panthers – Vegas Golden Knights (Game 1)
Team
Opening ML
Current ML
Spread
Total
Florida Panthers
+115
+110
+1.5 (-230)
o5.5 (-120)
Vegas Golden Knights
-135
-130
-1.5 (+195)
u5.5 (+100)
Picks:
[All plays are to win 1 Unit unless otherwise noted]
Vegas Golden Knights (-130) – DraftKings
When looking at these two teams, there’s not much of a difference between them. Both have had their goaltenders step up providing some much-needed support. However, I would give the slight edge to Vegas in terms of their defensemen and depth scoring, both of which are critical in the playoffs. The Golden Knights have been solid at home as of late and have shown their ability to outplay their opponents. While Florida did sweep their last series, they were overpowered in terms of expected goals. The difference maker was again, stop me if you heard this before, Sergei Bobrovsky. Vegas’ forward core has done a great job of getting bodies in front of the net and taking advantage of rebounds which is the formula for success when trying to beat a hot goaltender. While I expect this to be a back-and-forth series, I think Vegas starts off Game 1 with a win at home.
Leans:
Florida Panthers/ Vegas Golden Knights 1P Under 1.5 (-115) – DraftKings
Ivan Barbashev over 0.5 Points (+105) – DraftKings
Ivan Barbahsev is on the top line for Vegas with Jack Eichel and Jonathan Marchessault. That line has been great for the Golden Knights and currently ranks number one in terms of expected goals for (xGoals For) with 8.9 throughout the playoffs. Barbashev has recorded at least one point in four of his last five games. His ice time has also been increasing as the playoffs have gone on. While he isn’t on the first Power Play Unit for Vegas, he is on the second which should see some action tonight as Florida has multiple penalties in five of their last six games. If you’re looking for some value tonight, I think Barbashev is worth a look given his other linemates’ odds to record over half a point are -150 (Marchessault) and -195 (Eichel).
Sergei Bobrovsky over 29.5 Saves (+110) – DraftKings
I expect the Golden Knights to come out firing at home tonight. Through their first seventeen games of the playoffs, they’ve averaged 30 Shots on Goal a game. Florida has also allowed the most shots on goal against per game this postseason averaging 37.3. On the road, that number jumps up to 41.9.
The line tonight is set at 29.5 saves which is low when compared to the last four games when it varied between 30.5 and 31.5. In each of his last four games, he’s gone over this number.
Series Futures:
Series Total – 6 Games (+205)
Risk 0.5 Units to win 1.05 Units
Series Total – 7 Games (+200)
Risk 0.5 Units to win 1.00 Unit
I expect this series to go at least 6 games. These teams match up very well and play a similar style of hockey. While I expect Vegas to win their first-ever Stanley Cup, I think it takes them at least 6 games to close out this pesky Panthers team.
Series Futures (if you’d like to back Florida):
If you’re looking to bet Florida to win the Stanley Cup, here’s an alternative angle you may want to take a look at. Florida has two front runners to win the Conn Smythe which are Sergei Bobrovskiy and Matthew Tkachuk. Bobrovsky currently leads all goaltenders this postseason with a +19.7 Goals Saved Above Expected (GSAx). The last goalie to win the Conn Smythe was Andrei Vasilevskiy back in 2021. Before that, a goalie hadn’t won this award since 2012. Matthew Tkachuk has 21 points through 16 games in the playoffs and is only behind Roope Hintz. If Florida does go on to win the Stanley Cup, I believe the trophy will go to one of these two players so Option B may be a better angle given the value.
Option A: Single Bet – Panthers Series Future
Florida Panthers to Win the Series (+105 – DraftKings)
Risk 1.00 Unit to win 1.05 Units.
Option B: Two Bets – Conn Smythe Angle
Sergei Bobrovsky to win the Conn Smythe (+210 – DraftKings)
Risk 0.50 Units to win 1.05 Units
Matthew Tkachuk to win the Conn Smythe (+290 – DraftKings)
Risk 0.50 Units to win 1.45 Units
Series Futures (if you’d like to back Vegas):
Jack Eichel to win the Conn Smythe (+425 – DraftKings)
Jonathan Marchessault to win the Conn Smythe (+700 – DraftKings)
Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting.
This should be a great matchup of pitchers. Logan Allen visits Minni boasting a 2.72 ERA and a 2.93 FIP. The Twins have an ace starting themselves in Sonny Gray with a huge 1.94 ERA and a 2.19 FIP . Allen is a lefty and the Twins tend to struggle vs Lefties only ranking 25th in wRC+. Cleveland is the worst hitting team vs righties in the whole league ranking 30th in wRC+. Both bullpens are rested and in the top 15. Wind is blowing in at about 6 MPH. Grab the under.
The NFC East: Last year, we went 2-0 in season win totals in this division with the Eagles and the Cowboys both hitting their overs. The NFC East went from the worst division in football to pretty darn good over the last two or three years. We had three, count it, three teams make the playoffs last year from this group of teams. This year, the NFC East gets the NFC West who has two easier teams in the Rams and the Cardinals, as well as the AFC East which a little bit rough. The clock is ticking on the Dallas Cowboys to make the playoffs, while the Eagles had it very easy in the playoffs only to get reffed out of their potential Super Bowl winning drive. The Giants and the Commanders are going to be very interesting this year. Can New York repeat a playoff appearance? Can Riverboat Ron work his magic this year when expectations are low? Let’s see how all of this pans out.
Schedule: Medium – At large vs Minnesota, @ Tampa Bay, @ Kansas City
Schedule Last Year: Easy –
Key losses: DT Javon Hargrave, T Andre Dillard, RB Miles Sanders, G Isaac Seumalo, S Marcus Epps, OLB Kyzir white, OLB TJ Edwards
Key additions: RB D’Andre Swift, QB Marcus Mariota, S Terrell Edmunds, CB Greedy Williams
Whom they drafted: DT Jalen Carter, Edge Nolan Smith, T Tyler Steen, S Syndey Brown, CB Kelee Ringo
Summary: The game of football is won in the trenches, and nobody knows that more than the Philadelphia Eagles. This team has consistently reloaded their offensive and defensive lines over the past 10 years or so, and they have many playoff births and a super bowl win to show. The difficult thing for this team is now that they had to pay their quarterback Jalen Hurts, they will certainly have to shed some talent and it already started happening this year. One thing that this team did that I found was brilliant was drafting the whole state of Georgia over the past few years. These guys know how to win and it is very hard for me to find much fault in this fully loaded draft pool. If there is anything that I can pick on, it’s that the birds did lose a few guys on the offensive line. They had to shed some money in the secondary, but if this draft turns out, this defense will not miss a beat. As far as their season win total goes, I think that 11.5 is the perfect number for this team. The Eagles have the best defense in the league right now, and I believe they will be primed for another big super bowl run.
My Number: 11.73
Action – no play
Philadelphia Power rating: 6
2. Dallas Cowboys –
Vegas win total: 9.5 Juiced to the over -155 or 10 juiced to the under -105
2022 Wins: 12
Pythagorean Wins: 11.2
Schedule: Medium – At Large vs @ LA Chargers, @ Carolina, vs Detroit
Schedule Last Year: Medium Easy
Key losses: OC Kellen Moore, G Conner McGovern, TE Dalton Schultz, RB Ezekiel Elliot, OLB Anthony Barr, CB Anthony Brown
Key additions: RB Ronald Jones
Whom they drafted: DT Mazi Smith, TE Luke Schoonmaker, Edge DeMarvian Overshown and a bunch of hope.
Summary: Dallas was a very solid team last year and they over achieved expectations by wining 12 games. In saying that, there was no better team in the fumble luck category with Dallas netting a massive +12 fumbles last year that really helped them to grab the wild-card and to get into the playoffs. It’s almost kind of sad to win 12 games and not win the division, making a good team have to go on the road for the whole post-season. The biggest issue with fumble luck is that fumbles are not as predictable as interceptions. Fumbles are much more random, and it is not correct to expect the same results for the 2023 season. The Cowboys have not resigned Zeke, and I do not think that relationship fosters an progress with this franchise in the future. Tony Pollard is the better running back, but now below average running backs like Malik Davis and Ronald Jones will have to step it up to carry some of the weight. I do not like this Cowboys team coming into the 2023 season. They will have a tricky schedule this year with some difficult at large games. I think the under is the way to go here at the 10.
My Number: 9.2
Action: Under
Dallas Power Rating: 3.25
3. New York Giants –
Vegas Win total: is 7.5 juiced to the under -120
2022 Wins: 9.5
Pythagorean Wins: 8.16
Schedule: Medium Hard: At large games @ Las Vegas, vs Green Bay, @ New Orleans
Schedule Last Year: Medium Easy
Key losses: G Nick Gates, S Justin Love, C Jon Feliciano, WR Richie James, WR Kenny Golladay
Key additions: LB Bobby Okereke, DT Rakeem Nunez-Roches, DE A’Shawn Robinson, WR Paris Campbell, WR Jamison Crowder, TE Darren Waller
Key Draft Picks: CB Deonte Banks, C John Michael Schmitz, WR Jalin Hyatt
Summary: Coach Brian Daboll had himself a wonderful first year getting this team to the playoffs and somehow winning coach of the year over guys like Doug Peterson who took the Jaguars to a divisional win. This was a really huge accomplishment in looking at how tough the NFC East was last year. The G-men won a lot of one score games last year with some nice clutch play from Danny dimes. They also exposed a fraud in the playoffs in the Minnesota Vikings, but the real question is, were the Giants frauds as well? The answer is probably somewhere between a maybe and an absolutely. The Giants overachieved their Pythagorean win total by 1.36 games. The big issue for New York really was their defense in general last year. This team was in the bottom 20s in both opponent passing yards and rushing yards per game as well as ranking 28th in defensive overall EPA. So what does this team do to fix this? Very little actually. They did pick up a few guys like Rakeem Nunez-Roches and A’Shawn Robinson, but I still think think that this team will struggle at the linebacker position as well as the secondary. The Giants could have done more in free agency to make a legit run for a championship. Offensively, I thought that Richie James was a wonderful get last year to help ease the injuries of Wan’Dale Robinson and Sterling Shepard, yet they let him walk after this year in free agency. I also have to wonder how Saquon Barkley will be without a contract. Does he get paid or not? He was a key to the success of this offense last year. The Giants schedule looks pretty good from an at large situation, but they didn’t get many favors from the NFL netting negative nine games of rest which is fifth worst in the league. This team should be around the middle of the pack next year.
My Number: 7.83
Action – No Play
NY Giants Power Rating: -1
4. Washington –
Vegas Win total: 6.5 juiced to the over -120
2022 Wins: 8.5
Pythagorean Wins: 8.13
Schedule: Medium Hard – At large games @Denver, vs Chicago, @ Atlanta
Schedule Last Year: Medium
Key losses:QB Carson Wentz, LB Cole Holcomb, QB Taylor Heinicke, G Wes Schweitzer, RBJD McKissic, G Trai Turner
Key additions: OC Eric Bieniemy, QB Jacoby Brissett, G Nick Gates, T Andrew Wylie, LB Cody Barton, G Trenton Scott, DE Abdullah Anderson
Key draft picks: CB Emmanuel Forbes, CB Jartavious Martin, C Ricky Stromberg, T Braeden Daniels
Summary: Lots of changes coming in for the Commies. Now that the Carson Wentz experiment blew up in their faces, Washington decided to remove him and go and get a new offensive coordinator in Eric Bieniemy from the Kansas City Chiefs. Now Bieniemy is highly touted and has been mentioned a lot for new head coaching opportunities but one has to wonder some if it was really all Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes, or is Bieniemy responsible for some of the success. After watching how Matt Nagy faired with the Chicago Bears, I have to think that his chances might be a little slim. In saying that, this Washington offense was so bad last year, that there is really not much room to get any worse! I do like how this team finished their season strong using Sam Howell vs the Cowboys to win 26-6, which might give him some momentum coming into this season. I also like the fact that this defense should be one of the best in football. Last year, the Commies ranked fifth in defensive EPA and number one in success rate. They unfortunately lost linebacker Cole Holcomb to free agency, but they did replace him with Cody Barton. They also drafted some good cornerbacks that help them in a very rough division against guys like Ceedee Lamb, Devonte Smith, and AJ Brown. I really think that the success of this team will go through their young quarterback, and he has some very good weapons at the skill positions. From a scheduling standpoint, I thought that being the 4th place team was rougher than finishing third being that they have to go to Denver, instead of Las Vegas, but this team is tied for the most net rest days with Chicago and the Jets with +12 days rest. They do not get any teams coming off of a bye week. I think their win total is a tad bit too low and this team could be primed for a run at a wildcard spot.
This has the makings of a fun game in Boston. The Red Sox are dogs to the team with the best record in baseball, but how sustainable is Tampa’s record when they had a pretty easy schedule thus far. Either way, I am looking more at the total for this one. Tyler Glasnow is pitching for the Rays who hasn’t had much action since 2021 due to injuries. This could blow up on him easily. Garrett Whitlock takes the helm for the Red Sox and he hasn’t been all that good at all with a 5.14 ERA and a 5.53 FIP. Both of these bullpens rank in the bottom nine in FIP. The winner of this game will have to put a bunch of runs on the board. This is quite ok for the Rays being that they are the number one team in weighted runs created (wRC+) while the Red Sox are number nine. Both teams are top three in Runs per game. Lastly, these are the top two overs teams in the league both going over their total at a 61%+ clip. Take the over today in Boston.
I have a great show for everyone today! You will be listening to my inaugural podcast!
I’m your host Eric Rocco, and I will provide you with a little biography on me, my background and how I have gotten to this point in my life. Also what to expect on my podcast today and going forward. Then we get to talk about the NBA Finals, CFL(Canadian Football League) and a few MLB series this weekend I have my eye on. And as always we will end it with “Reflect with Rocco.”
I would love some feedback as this is my first podcast, so you can reach out to the website with any thoughts or Direct Message me on Twitter @TrustRocco.
We have a great show for you today! Kiev O’Neil @OBKiev goes solo to discuss some football and UFC! First, Kiev rants a little about the NBA MVP voting, and how ridiculous their decision making was for the East. Next, we get right into some football with some more divisional previews to finish out the NFC. Which teams go over their win total? Who goes under? Any futures plays worth looking at? Finally, we get into some UFC on ESPN Kai Kara France vs Amir Albazi with a few Free Plays! Should you have any questions for the podcast, or games that you want us to cap during our shows, please message us at Info@TheOddsBreakers.com. Have a wonderful week!
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Congrats to all Emiliano Grillo backers last week at the Charles Schwab Challenge. After blowing a two-stroke lead on the 18th, he was able to rebound and defeat Adam Schneck in a playoff. He earned his second career PGA Tour win with his last coming in 2015 at the Fortinent Championship.
We now head to Muirfield Village for the Memorial Tournament. Let’s get into this week’s storylines…
Patrick Cantlay reigns supreme in terms of course history at Muirfield Village with two victories. In his six appearances at this event, Cantlay has four top-10 finishes. He’s also made the cut each time as well. Cantlay has yet to win this season but has been playing well as of late with eight top-20 finishes in his last nine starts. Earlier this month, he switched caddies to Joe LaCava, who was on Tigers bag for a while. LaCava has also worked with Freddy Couples and Dustin Johnson as well. We’ll see if Cantlay can finally grab his first win since the 2022 BMW Championship.
Jon Rham also has some pretty impressive course history here as well. He won at Muirfield back in 2020 and finished tied for tenth last year. Rahm was also on his way to another victory here in 2021 but was forced to withdraw before the final round with a six-stroke lead after testing positive for COVID-19.
Billy Horschel will look to defend his title at Muirfield Village this week, which was also his last win on the PGA Tour. In his sixteen starts this season, he has more missed cuts (6) than top 20 finishes (4).
Sunday: Mostly Sunny 88 F, 9 mp/h E, 44% Humidity, 5% Chance of Rain
Course/ Tournament History:
The Memorial Tournament was founded in 1976 by Jack Nicklaus, who was also one of the original architects of the course. Nicklaus spent his early years in Columbus so this course, which is just 20 miles north, holds a special place in his heart.
Muirfield Village has hosted the tournament since its debut. In 2020, Muirfield Village hosted two back-to-back tournaments due to COVID scheduling conflicts. The first event was the Workday Charity Open and the following tournament was the Memorial Tournament. Collin Morikawa defeated Justin Thomas in a playoff in the Workday Charity Open and then lost to Patrick Cantlay in a playoff a week later.
Following those two events, the course underwent a rather large renovation. They lengthened the course from 7,392 yards to the current yardage of 7,533. In addition to length, they also increased the difficulty by adding some new greenside and fairway bunkers. Most of the greens have been reconstructed as well with new bentgrass.
The Memorial Tournament is one of five tournaments to be given “invitational” status by the PGA Tour. With this “invitational” status the field is reduced to 120 and a larger purse.
72-Hole Record:
268, Tom Lehman (1994)
18-Hole Record:
61, John Huston (Round 2, 1996)
Course Guide/ Scorecard:
Muirfield Village is one of the tougher courses players will face on Tour this season. In 2022, only five holes had a scoring average under par which included the four Par 5’s.
In terms of length, Colonial Country Club is one of the longer courses on Tour measuring 7,571 yards. It ranks 6th out of 46 courses in length. The fairways are on the wider side, ranking 15th of 46, with the average fairway width being 33.0 yards. The average green size is roughly 5,000 square feet which is on the smaller side when compared to the other courses on the PGA Tour. There are 68 bunkers which ranks as the 17th most out of 46 courses.
The four Par 3’s, No. 4, No. 8, No. 12, & No. 16, range between 180 yards and 220 yards. At the 2022 Memorial Tournament, none of the Par 3’s had a scoring average below Par.
No. 12, 180 Yards, Par 3: “Depending on the pin, the choice here is either a short iron into the left side of the two-tiered green or take one more club to find the right side of the green. Obviously, the tee shot must cover the large lake which also guards the right side as well. The back bunker is no bargain and is not a place you want to be.”
No. 16, 220 Yards, Par 3: “Patrons might not notice the difference in the 16th hole, but players certainly have. After we redesigned the hole prior to the 2013 Presidents Cup, it just didn’t play like I wanted or what the Memorial field liked. The green wouldn’t hold shots, especially on the back left. It turned out that the left side pitched away from you, and that should not have been the case. So, we took eight inches from the middle of the green and added eight inches to the left. Now, although golfers are using the same club as before, the green runs toward them and not away from them, and thus holds shots better.”
Six of the ten Par 4’s range between 450 – 500 yards. No. 14 is the shortest listed at 360 yards with the longest being No. 17, playing 503 yards.
No. 17, 503 Yards, Par 4: “Cosmetically, you might not notice a lot of changes, but trust me, it plays much differently, especially off the tee. The fairway used to be too wide and swung out to the right and then back. We took the bunker on the left in about 20 yards, and then the one on the end of the fairway we moved in about 4 or 5 yards. That leaves about 16 or 17 yards between bunkers so, naturally, you have to be more precise off the tee. If you get into those bunkers, you’ve got a little work left. A small creek runs in front of the green that has been softened a little bit to create more pin placements. Two bunkers protect the left and right side of the putting surface. But it’s the tee shot that is a bit more challenging.”
The four Par 5’s are No. 5, No. 7, No. 11, & No. 15. In 2022, all of these holes had a scoring average under par.
No. 5, 547 Yards, Par 5: “The fifth hole is actually shorter than before. After moving the tee down and to the left, we knocked down the hill on the right for better visibility off the tee. The creek still splits the hole, forcing a decision off the tee. I would say that 95 percent of the players—maybe even more—will hit the ball down the fairway on the left side, probably with a 3-wood. There will be the occasional player who will try to take it over the water, leaving himself with a short iron into the green. Have at it! It is there for the taking if you want it, but the penalty is severe. The green, which has been moved back 30 yards and to the left, is a bit smaller and narrower and is protected by a bunker front left and two little ones on the right. The more aggressive you get, the tougher the third shot. If you lay it back for a wedge third shot, you are looking right up the green. If you try to get a little more aggressive and get up closer to the green, it could be good, but if you go long, the pitch is over a bunker to a green running towards the water.”
No. 11, 588 Yards, Par 5: “Players face the same tee shot, with the creek on the left and bunker on the right. If you fit a driver between the two and hit it long, you can get home in two. If you want to play it as a three-shot par 5, the players might go hybrid, iron, and wedge into the green. The green was moved to the left to avoid the trees on the right. Before the renovation, the trees would hang out there, and players would sometimes have to slice a shot into the green, which isn’t the play that should be required. The green is more of a bowl, meaning if you miss it long or to the right, the chip is a little more severe coming down the hill into the green. Hit the green in two, and there are a lot more opportunities for eagles here.”
Featured/ Signature Hole(s): 11
For a hole-by-hole overview of the course, you can click the following link.
Key Statistics:
Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green
Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green
Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee
Strokes Gained: Approach
Scrambling
Bogey Avoidance
Driving Accuracy
Strokes Gained: Putting (Bentgrass)
Par 4 Scoring: 450 – 500 (x6)
Par 5 Scoring: 550 – 600 (x4)
Comparable Courses and Event History
The Field/ Odds:
There will be 120 players competing in this year’s Memorial Tournament. Each of the world’s top-five players are in the field. Here are the current favorites in this week’s event:
Scottie Scheffler (+600), finished tied for 3rd last week at the Charles Schwab Challenge. He has now finished inside the top 5 in each of his last three events. Scheffler will look for his third win of the season this week at Muirfield Village where he has finished 3rd and tied for 22nd in his two prior appearances here.
Jon Rahm (+700) struggled in his last start on Tour finishing tied for 50th at the PGA Championship. Despite that poor showing, Rahm still has the most wins on the PGA Tour this year with four. He’ll make his fifth appearance at Muirfield Village this week where he won back in 2020. In 2021, he was leading this event by six strokes heading into Sunday but was forced to withdraw after testing positive for COVID-19.
Patrick Cantlay (+1000) has not won on Tour this year despite ten top-20 finishes in thirteen starts. However, he does have some great course history at Muirfield Village winning back in 2021 & 2019. In his most recent start here (2022), he finished tied for 3rd.
Rory McIlroy (+1200) tied for seventh in his last start on Tour (PGA Championship). He has only one win this season which was at the CJ Cup in South Carolina. McIlroy will make his twelfth appearance at Muirfield Village this week. He has yet to win here with his best finishing coming back in 2016 (T4).
Xander Schauffele (+1400) has finished inside the top 20 in each of his last four appearances at Muirfield Village. Schauffele has been playing some great golf as of late finishing inside the top 5 in three of his last four starts on Tour.
Previous Winners in the Field:
Billy Horschel (’22), Patrick Cantlay (’21, ’19), Jon Rahm (’20), Jason Dufner (’17), William McGirt (’16), David Lingmerth (’15), Hideki Matsuyama (’14), Matt Kuchar (’13), Justin Rose (’10)
Notable Withdraws:
Maverick McNealy (Undisclosed), Taylor Moore (Undisclosed)
To see the most up-to-date odds, you can click the following link.
To see the full field for this event, you can click the following link.
Horses for Courses:
Patrick Cantlay: T35/ 4/ 1/ T32/ 1/ T3
Xander Schauffele: MC/ T14/ T13/ T11/ T18
Scottie Scheffler: T22/ T3
Jon Rahm: MC/ 1/ WD/ T10
Sahith Theegala: T32/ T5
Donkeys for Courses:
“Horses for Courses” is a phrase that is widely used and describes the best course/tournament fits. These are the players that have had success at the particular course/event. “Donkeys for Courses” is something I came up with that highlights the players who have struggled at a specific course/tournament.
Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting. Any feedback whether positive or negative is always encouraged.
Miami is on the verge of the biggest collapse in NBA playoff history, or are they? Well according to social media, beat writers and apparently ESPN knew, this series is over folks. But as Lee Corso says “not so fast!” Where have we seen this story before? The Heat are done, they have given up, stick a fork in them. Weren’t they 2 minutes away from elimination in the play-in game vs Chicago? They can’t beat the Bucks. I believe most people had Milwaukee playing the first week of June, but they got by the Knicks and now surely they can’t go into Boston and win, can they? They do! As 8.5 and 10 point dogs at the TD Garden. Which segways into my next statement. Just in the playoffs alone they have won as 9, 2, 7.5, 13, 4, 8.5, 10 and 4 point underdogs! Safe to say they have done this before, and counting them out is just what they want. Like I said when we backed them when they were 7.5 point dog out-right winners in Milwaukee, they have been here before. They were less than a minute away from a finals appearance this time last year, they know what needs to be done to win this ONE game.
Now how in the hell are they going to beat Boston, in Boston nonetheless? It starts with game changer Jimmy Buckets, these guys rise off his intensity and ability to control the game. He comes off a 5/21 performance, and the game before where he only took 10 shots. but in games 1 and 2, he averaged 31 points and was 12/25 respectively in each contest. I’m expecting a Jordan-like performance from him, as he thrives in these situations. He will need his help from his wings to continue, as they’re shooting over 40% from downtown in this series, a category this team excels in when they win. As this will most definitely be a close game late, I love how Miami has a 4-5% edge at the free throw line in this series. It sounds minute, but could be the difference in the final minutes.
As far as the Celtics go, it might be a weird spot to use this term but I think they peaked too early. I know it’s a 7 game series and obviously they have lost 3 of them, so how could they have peaked? In games 4 and 5 they ‘threw’ a perfect game in every category you would like to apply that too. Game 6 not so much, I don’t need to tell you how lucky they were to get out of South Beach with a victory. If they play that way again, unfortunately for them they won’t be playing a 76ers squad who literally and physically never left the locker room in the 2nd half, they will be in TROUBLE.
Marcus Smart is off back to back games with 20 plus points which bodes well for Miami, because A, we can expect some regression and B, his +/- in this series has been abysmal. Old man Horford has given it his all in this series specifically after Butler pissed him off at the end of game 3. Chasing down loose balls and diving all over the court, but I would not expect the same intensity to continue. As far as Jaylen Brown goes, yes he’s PLAYED in every game but Miami has done a great job limiting him and not letting him take over at any point during this series. Boston continues to jack up the 3, averaging 40 attempts per game, while only making 31%. With this many missed attempts and Miami’s ability to force crucial turnovers, Miami will be able to dictate how this game goes and not let Boston go one of their ‘Celtic’ runs.
Opposed to Miami, Boston has lost just in the postseason alone as 4.5, 10, 8.5, 8, 1, 10.5, 14 and 5 point favorites. This game screams a Boston letdown and watching Coach Mazzulla continue to make mistakes on the sidelines. If you’re backing the Heat with me, don’t worry Doc Rivers will not be in attendance. At least I hope not haha. Miami not only just covers in game 7, I believe they will win this game out-right! This will go down as my biggest play of the year for me personally. Let’s go Jimmy Buckets and the Miami Heat!
Heat +8 (Circa -109) risking 3.27u to win 3u
Heat ML +265 (BetRivers) risking 1u to win 2.65u
Prop: Butler over 28.5 points (PointsBet +100) risking 0.7u to win 0.7u
Which pitcher is worse? Brandon Williams for the Reds who has a 3.6 ERA and a 5.89 FIP, or Jameson Taillon for the Cubs who has an 8.1 ERA and a 4.98 FIP? Probably the latter, but both of these teams should give up some runs today. The Cubs hitting has been solid throughout the year ranking seventh in wRC+, with the Reds are a close to average .711 in OPS. The Cubs rank 4th in runs per game at 5.48 while the Reds rank 15th at 4.54. Both Bullpens are pretty average. I think this game goes over the total.
