It looks like we’re officially on a heater! Akshay Bhatia (40-1) captured the Barbasol Championship giving us our second outright in the past two weeks.
Let’s get into this week’s storylines…
Tony Finau looks to defend his title at the 3M Open. He’s already won twice on Tour this season. If he’s able to capture a third victory this season it would be the first time that he’s accomplished that feat in his career.
Justin Thomas finds himself on the outside of the FedEx Cup Playoffs with just two events to go. He’s played in the Tour Championship seven times before, winning in 2017. This is the first year that just 70 players qualify for the PGA TOUR’s postseason. Thomas is 75th in the FedExCup after a difficult season.
The 3M Open debuted on the PGA Tour in 2019. Before that, TPC Twin Cities hosted the 3M Championship which was a Champions tour event from 1993-2018. The 3M Open is the PGA TOUR’s first regular stop in Minnesota in five decades. As one of the newer tournaments on the tour, they’ve taken a great approach to trying to grow the event and game. On hole 17, they added sky boxes to try to mimic the famed rowdy par-3 16th hole at the Waste Management Open.
The course was originally a sod farm that was transformed into a championship golf course by Arnold Palmer Design Co with consultation from Minnesota native, Tom Lehman. Before the inaugural tournament in 2019, the course underwent a renovation. During that renovation, they lengthened the course, narrowed fairway lines, repositioned tees and bunkers, and added more space for grandstands and spectators.
72-Hole Record:
263, Matthew Wolff (2019)
18-Hole Record:
62, Scott Piercy (1st Rd, 2019), Bryson Dechambeau (2nd Rd, 2019), Matt Wolff (3rd Rd, 2019), Lucas Glover (4th Rd, 2019)
Course Scorecard:
Featured/ Signature Hole(s): 6, 7, 9, 14
For a hole-by-hole overview of the course, you can click the following link.
Key Statistics:
Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee
Strokes Gained: Approach
Strokes Gained: Putting (Bentgrass)
Birdies or Better
Bogey Avoidance
Par 3 Scoring: 200 – 225 (x2)
Par 4 Scoring: 400 – 450 (x4)
Par 5 Scoring: 550 – 600 (x3)
Comparable Courses and Event History
The Field/ Odds:
There will be 156 players competing in this year’s 3M Open. Five of the world’s top-thirty players are in the field. Here are the current favorites in this week’s event:
Cameron Young (+1400)
Sungjae Im (+1600)
Tony Finau (+1600)
Hideki Matsuyama (+1600)
Emilliano Grillo (+2500)
Previous Winners in the Field:
Tony Finau (’22), Cameron Champ (’21)
Notable Withdraws:
David Lingmerth, Luke List, Akshay Bhatia
To see the most up-to-date odds, you can click the following link.
To see the full field for this event and how they qualified, you can click the following link.
Horses for Courses:
Field Rating: 113
Field Rating: 222
Field Rating: 197
Field Rating: 255
2022
2021
2020
2019
Sungjae Im
T2
T15
Tony Finau
1
T28
T3
T23
Emiliano Grillo
T2
MC
T3
Adam Hadwin
T38
T6
4
JT Poston
T11
T28
Cameron Champ
T16
1
MC
Donkeys for Courses:
“Horses for Courses” is a phrase that is widely used and describes the best course/tournament fits. These are the players that have had success at the particular course/event. “Donkeys for Courses” is something I came up with that highlights the players who have struggled at a specific course/tournament.
Field Rating: 113
Field Rating: 222
Field Rating: 197
Field Rating: 255
2022
2021
2020
2019
Scott Harrington
MC
MC
Ben Taylor
MC
MC
Kevin Tway
MC
MC
Sean O’Hair
MC
MC
Russell Knox
MC
MC
Matthew NeSmith
T72
MC
MC
Andrew Landry
MC
MC
MC
Nate Lashley
MC
MC
MC
William Gordon
MC
MC
Harry Higgs
MC
MC
MC
Ben Martin
MC
MC
MC
Charley Hoffman
MC
MC
Sahith Theegala
MC
MC
Sunghoon Kang
MC
T70
MC
Doc Redman
MC
MC
MC
Cody Gribble
MC
MC
Martin Trainer
MC
T58
MC
MC
Austin Cook
MC
MC
T56
MC
Brian Gay
MC
MC
MC
T56
Previous Winners Scores & Prices:
2022: Tony Finau (-17)
Price: 14-1
2021: Cameron Champ (-15)
Price: 150-1
2020: Michael Thompson (-19)
Price: 125-1
2019: Matthew Wolff (-21)
Price: 175-1
Picks (Outrights):
Sepp Straka (+2200) – FanDuel
Risk 0.37 to win 8.14 Units
Emiliano Grillo (+2800) – FanDuel
Risk 0.29 to win 8.12 Units
Ludvig Aberg (+2800) – FanDuel
Risk 0.29 to win 8.12 Units
Doug Ghim (+8000) – BetMGM
Risk 0.10 to win 8.00 Units
Total Risk on Outrights: 1.05 Units
Picks (Top 20):
Adam Hadwin (+170) – BetMGM
Risk 1.00 to win 1.70 Units
J.T. Poston (+180) – BetMGM
Risk 1.00 to win 1.80 Units
Total Risk on Top 20: 2.00 Units
Picks (Top 40):
Greyson Sigg (+120) – BetMGM
Risk 1.00 to win 1.20 Units
Chez Reavie (+138) – BetMGM
Risk 1.00 to win 1.38 Units
Total Risk on Top 40: 2.00 Units
Total Risk on the 3M Open: 5.05 Units
Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting. Any feedback whether positive or negative, is always encouraged.
Rocco’s SPORTS Mission: Season 1, Podcast 8 is available for your listening pleasure.
Welcome to the inaugural Monday edition of Rocco’s SPORTS Mission Podcast. I will give my opinion on the Buffalo Bills Win Total in 2023. Then we will go over my lone Podcast Play this week.
Would you like all of my Premium Plays? Head over to theoddsbreakers.com and look at all of my available packages. My monthly one gives you access to every sport’s premium plays. If you’re looking for action and content all the time, that’s personally my favorite. It gives you every sport for a small amount daily.
I’ve done extremely well with football in the last few years. If you followed me on Twitter @TrustRocco the last few seasons, you have seen the damage I can do. We had some unbelievable weeks! My football package is UP and available, just use the promocode Summerwin to receive 20% off! Be sure to sign up early and don’t miss any of the action for this upcoming season.
I just finished the NBA season up over 17 units, all plays documented on Twitter and BetStamp. I also finished the NCAAB season up 16 units as well. Put your trust in Rocco.
We have a tasty show for you today! Matt Youmans @MattyYoumans247 from @VSINLIVE comes on to break down the NFL win totals, week 1, and the top 10 fast food go to restaurants in the USA! First, Matt talks about how he likes the heat down in the southwest compared to the cold of the mid-west. Next, the guys get right into their top 10 fast food restaurants. Then, Matt and Kiev get into some 2023 NFL season win totals as well as some plays that they have made during the season. Should you have any questions for the podcast, or games that you want us to cap during our shows, please message us at Info@TheOddsBreakers.com. Have a wonderful week!
USE PROMO CODE SUMMERWIN TO GET $100 OFF EVERY FOOTBALL PACKAGE AND $50 OFF EVERY MONTHLY MEMBERSHIP FOR THE FIRST MONTH! Click here: https://theoddsbreakers.com/premium-plays/ Offer expires August 1st, 2023
If you want to subscribe to support us and get some very frequent winners please Click Here to become a member of The OddsBreakers and gain access to premium plays BEFORE the line moves! Or, you can visit theoddsbreakers.com and click shop and pick one of our great handicappers including Kiev O’Neil @OBKiev at only $84 per month on a 1 year subscription! You could also support us at Patreon.com for only $10 a month to help us out and thank us for some free plays as well as get some extra benefits and merchandise.
If you want to take ownership of your health, try AG1 and get a FREE 1-yearsupply of Vitamin D AND 5 Free AG1 Travel Packs with your first purchase. Go to drinkAG1.com/oddsbreakers
This should be a good main event in London where Tom Aspinall is coming back almost exactly one year later after his early first round knee injury vs Curtis Blaydes. If you remember, Aspinall was favored in this fight and was a very big heavyweight contender at the time. His early finishes of Volkov and Spivak have earned him a big favorite here of over 80% probability. Tom’s opponent Marcin Tybura isn’t no slouch. Marcin is durable and has beaten good contenders like Alexander Romanov and Blagoy Ivanov. He lost to Alexander Volkov by decision. Let’s look at how this fight will go down. Marcin Tybura is more of a stand-up fighter who also has skills on the ground if needed. His takedown defense is at a huge 79%. Aspinall is good both on his feet and on the ground, but I am not so sure that he will be able to take the big polar bear down so quickly. I also think that it would not be smart of Aspinall to go directly at Tybura the very next fight after his big knee injury. Tybura himself will want this fight to last as long as possible to try and wear down the more aggressive Aspinal. I think this fight is most likley won by Tom being that he is the younger and the more skilled fighter, but I also think that this fight gets past the 1st round. Take the round prop at a good price.
Nascar H2H Matchup William Byron Over Ross Chastain -112 @Fanduel Sportsbook
Risk 4.5 To Win 4 Units
Coming off a winner last week with Brad Keselowski over Bubba Wallace at New Hampshire, now we turn are focus to Pocono this Sunday for another winner. Both William Byron and Ross Chastain entered the Nascar Cup Series in 2018 and since then William Byron has had a better finishing position then Ross Chastain at Pocono. Byron has an average finish of 9.4 at Pocono and Chastain has a lousy average finish of 29.7 since 2018. A similar track to Pocono would be Michigan Speedway where Byron has an average finish of 14.3 and Chastain is 29.8. Byron also has been better in current form as he has had a better finishing position then Chastain 6 out of the last 9 races, take William Byron over Ross Chastain this Sunday at Pocono.
Rocco’s SPORTS Mission: Season 1, Podcast 7 is available for your listening pleasure.
I will go over my AL Central future bet. Then, we dive into 2 MLB series I’m eyeing for this weekend. As always, end it with “Reflect with Rocco” discussing taking mental breaks.
Would you like all of my Premium Plays? Head over to theoddsbreakers.com and look at all of my available packages. My monthly one gives you access to every sport’s premium plays. If you’re looking for action and content all the time, that’s personally my favorite. It gives you every sport for a small amount daily.
I’ve done extremely well with football in the last few years. If you followed me on Twitter @TrustRocco the last few seasons, you have seen the damage I can do. We had some unbelievable weeks! My football package is UP and available, just use the promocode Summerwin to receive 20% off! Be sure to sign up early and don’t miss any of the action for this upcoming season.
I just finished the NBA season up over 17 units, all plays documented on Twitter and BetStamp. I also finished the NCAAB season up 16 units as well. Put your trust in Rocco.
We have a HUGE show for you today! Brian Edwards @VegasBEdwards is back to break down the SEC! First, Kiev talks some UFC on ESPN London with some #FREEPLAYS and some leans on the main card! Next, Brian comes on and the guys get right into some of the big rule changes in College Football. Then, Brian and Kiev talk about other teams that might have a chance in breaking into the college football playoffs. Finally, the guys get into the SEC with a preview of the big teams and some win total plays that they have already made thus far for 2023! Should you have any questions for the podcast, or games that you want us to cap during our shows, please message us at Info@TheOddsBreakers.com. Have a wonderful week!
USE PROMO CODE SUMMERWIN TO GET $100 OFF EVERY FOOTBALL PACKAGE AND $50 OFF EVERY MONTHLY MEMBERSHIP FOR THE FIRST MONTH! Click here: https://theoddsbreakers.com/premium-plays/ Offer expires August 1st, 2023
If you want to subscribe to support us and get some very frequent winners please Click Here to become a member of The OddsBreakers and gain access to premium plays BEFORE the line moves! Or, you can visit theoddsbreakers.com and click shop and pick one of our great handicappers including Kiev O’Neil @OBKiev at only $84 per month on a 1 year subscription! You could also support us at Patreon.com for only $10 a month to help us out and thank us for some free plays as well as get some extra benefits and merchandise.
If you want to take ownership of your health, try AG1 and get a FREE 1-yearsupply of Vitamin D AND 5 Free AG1 Travel Packs with your first purchase. Go to drinkAG1.com/oddsbreakers
If you enjoy my content and my plays. Head over to theoddsbreakers.com and take a look at all my packages, use promo code Summerwin for a tremendous discount. You can still get my monthly package at half price, which gives you access to all of my premium plays for every sport. As we get deeper into the year with NFL, NCAAF and NBA starting that is by far my best deal. So, currently get 2 months for the price of 1. Let me do the work for you. All you got to do is sign-up, then the fun part, WINNING.
Also take a listen to my podcast Rocco’s SPORTS Mission, I cover all the major sports, give out free picks and as always, a “Reflect with Rocco” segment.
Let’s win together my friends, put your trust in Rocco!
Wednesday July 19th, 2023. Premium MLB Plays with Eric Rocco
Chicago White Sox at New York Mets -225, O/U 9
White Sox ML +185 (BetMGM) risk 1u to win 1.85u
White Sox RL +1.5 (BetMGM -105) risk 1.05u to win 1u
It’s game 2 of a White Sox series and again they’re big dogs. Well, I guess when you have a record of 40-56 and facing one of the most dominant pitchers of the last decade, the line makes sense. Or does it? How can this Mets team be -200 + vs anyone is the bigger question to ask. Backing the Mets on any night is like backing that horse that’s 1/21 with 10 seconds and 7 thirds. Tons of talent, yet no heart. Now I’m not going to sit here and tell you Chicago has tons of it because they don’t, but they certainly have more of it than this New York squad. I still find it hard to believe a team with this many bats in it can be 16 under .500 at the break, I also said that last year when I watched my division bets go down the toilet. Why do I mention game 2? Well, for starters they’re 18-13 in game 2 of a series and 13-7 in this scenario off a loss. While in games 1 and 3 they’re 11-20 and 8-20 in those spots. You can even take this trend back to 2022 when I had uncovered this being a winning spot for the White Sox. If you bet blindly games 1 and 2 of the series, loss then win, you’re up quite a few units over this last year. I think tonight’s game truly hits them right in the head for a W!
I do believe the bats will show up tonight vs Verlander who has struggled mightily in his 2023 campaign. Opponents slugging a career high .380 vs him, his walks per game have double this year and his strikeout % is down 7%. More importantly hard-hit balls and exit velocity are soaring this year, something we’re not accustomed to seeing with Justin. His EV is a career high and hard-hit balls are up a whopping 8.7%. Yes, I know betting against Verlander is not a recipe for success over the years, but I believe it will be tonight. The Sox come into this game averaging 8 runs per game in their last 3 and are hitting .270 vs righties in their last 5 games, while averaging almost 6 runs per game off righties. While the Mets on the other hand are hitting .181 and averaging 3.5 runs per game off righties in their last 5. Up until last night’s shootout, the Mets had gone 5 straight games scoring 2 runs or less. Back the White Sox tonight on the run-line as well as the money-line!
Congrats to all Rory McIlroy backers at the Genesis Scottish Open. It was great to see Rory rally Sunday down the stretch to capture his second win of the season.
Vincent Norrman (20-1) came through for us at the Barbasol Championship. It was great to hit our second outright in the past three weeks!
The fourth and final Major Championship of the season takes place this week, the Open. Let’s get into the storylines…
Royal Liverpool will host the Open Championship for its 13th time. The last time we saw this course was in 2014. Since then, the course has undergone a renovation so it’ll play slightly different this time around. Forty-two players in the field competed at the 2014 Open Championship.
The Open Championship Course History:
The last time this event was held at Royal Liverpool Golf Club was in 2014. Here are a few notable finishes from players in the field this year.
R. McIlroy: 1 R. Fowler: T2 A. Scott: T5 S. Lowry: T9 D. Johnson: T12 F. Molinari: T15
— Gator_Sports_Betting (@GatorBetting) July 16, 2023
Rory McIlroy is the current favorite this week and won the Open Championship the last time it was held at Royal Liverpool. With that victory, he joined Tiger Woods and Hack Nicklaus as the only players to win three of golf’s modern majors by the age of 25. He enters this week’s event in great form having captured his 24th career PGA Tour victory last week at the Genesis Scottish Open. It’ll be interesting to see if he can use that newfound momentum to win his first Major Championship since 2014.
Rickie Fowler finished runner-up at the Open Championship in 2014 the last time it was held at Hoylake. He also captured his first win since 2019 at the Rocket Mortgage Classic a few weeks ago. Rickie also came close to winning his first Major at the U.S. Open this year. He ended up finishing tied for fifth which was his best finish in a Major since the 2018 Masters.
Cameron Smith is the defending champion of this event having captured his first Major Championship at St. Andrews last year. He’s played well in the first three Majors of the year finishing T34 at the Masters, T9 at the PGA Championship, and T4 at the U.S. Open. Smith is also coming off a victory in his most recent start at LIV London. The last time a player won the Open in back-to-back years was Pádraig Harrington in 2007-2008.
Matthew Jordan, currently 200-1, has been a member at Hoylake since he was seven years old and punched his ticket to the 151st Open having come through Final Qualifying at West Lancashire Golf Club. He will hit the opening tee shot at the Open Championship on Thursday. Jordan plays on the Challenge Tour, which is the second-tier golf tour in Europe. He’s already won once on that Tour this season and enters this week’s event off two consecutive top-10 finishes.
There are also a few top players in the world that are looking for their first Major championship. Patrick Cantlay, current World No. 4, had his best finish at this event last year finishing T8. Viktor Hovland, current World No. 5, finished tied for fourth at last year’s Open Championship. He’s now finished inside the top 20 in each of his last four Major Championship appearances. Xander Schauffele, current World No. 6, has had several runner-up finishes in Major championships but has failed to break through yet. Max Homa, current World No. 8, is also looking for his first Major Championship. Last year at St. Andrew’s, he missed the cut. Those four players have combined for 25 PGA TOUR titles and have all won at least twice since the start of the 2021-22 season.
Lastly, there are sixteen players from the LIV Tour competing in this year’s Open Championship. Headlining the list of players include Brooks Koepka, the 2023 PGA Championship winner, and Cameron Smith, the defending Open Championship winner. Dustin Johnson is another player to mention as he finished runner-up at the 2011 Open Championship.
Royal Liverpool Golf Club was founded in 1869 as a nine-hole course. It was built around the old grounds of the racecourse. References to the race track can still be found today with the names of the first and eighteenth holes, “Course” and “Stand”. The original saddling bell also still hangs in the clubhouse. The club is also referred to as Hoylake which is the name of the small town the course actually sits in. It received the “Royal” designation in 1871 due to the patronage of Prince Arthur the Duke of Connaught, one of Queen Victoria’s sons.
The Open has been held at Hoylake twelve times before. In addition to the Open, the course has also played host to seventeen British Amateur Championships, including the first one held in 1885. In 2012, Royal Liverpool held its first-ever Women’s British Open.
Several international matches have been held at Royal Liverpool including the inaugural match between England and Scotland (Home Internationals) in 1902 and the first match between Great Britain and the U.S. in 1921 (Walker Cup).
The last Walker Cup to held held at this course was in 2019 when the Americans defeated Great Britain and Ireland 15½ to 10½. One interesting name from Team Great Britain & Ireland is Alex Fitzpatrick, the younger brother of Matthew Fitzpatrick. Alex, who’s currently on the Challenge Tour, qualified for the Open Championship last week so he’ll be in the field. The last time we saw him on the PGA Tour was at the Zurich Classic of New Orleans when he and his brother teamed up and would go on to finish T4. This will be the first Major he’s ever competed in.
As I mentioned before, Royal Liverpool will not look the same as it did in 2014. The course has been lengthened out by roughly seventy yards and changed from a Par 72 to a Par 71. The design team of Mackenzie & Ebert, who also redesigned Royal Portrush, have reconfigured the course. The main addition is the new par 3 17th hole, “Little Eye”. It’s only listed at 136 yards but should provide a challenge for players coming down the stretch as the green is only 3,800 sq. ft. compared to the average of 6,458 sq. ft. The hole runs along the coastline so it’s directly exposed to any wind coming off the Irish Sea.
The Open Championship Course History:
The last time this event was held at Royal Liverpool Golf Club was in 2014. Here are the changes in the scorecard from that year. pic.twitter.com/oPNpzxZrJx
— Gator_Sports_Betting (@GatorBetting) July 16, 2023
The Open Championship began in 1860 and is the oldest golf tournament in the world. It’s one of golf’s four Major Championships and is held in mid-July since 2019 after the PGA Championship was moved to May. The tournament was originally held at Prestwick Golf Club in Scotland. However, the venue is now rotated between several different courses in the United Kingdom. This year will be the 151st edition of the Open Championship.
The winner of the Open Championship will receive the Claret Jug which has been presented to the champion since 1873. The original trophy resides at St. Andrew’s while the winner receives a replica that they can have for a year. In addition to the trophy, the “Champion Golfer of the Year”, a title which has been used for the winning golfer since 1860, also receives a hefty payday. The current winner’s share is $3,000,000 which is one of the largest amounts of any tournament this season. Up until 2016, the purse was paid out in pounds but was changed to dollars in 2017 as it’s the most widely adopted currency for prize money in golf.
We haven’t had a playoff at this event since 2015 when Zach Johnson won but if several players are tied after 72 holes, a three-hole aggregate playoff is held. If players are still tied, the format becomes sudden death.
Most Victories:
6, Harry Vardon (1896, 1898, 1899, 1903, 1911, 1914)
72-Hole Record:
264, Henrik Stenson (2016 at Royal Troon)
18-Hole Record:
62, Branden Grace (3rd round, 2017 at Royal Birkdale)
Course Guide/ Scorecard:
The past two winners at Royal Liverpool had winning scores of -17 and -18. Despite those low numbers, the course still had a scoring average over Par the last time it was held here. In 2014, only six holes had a scoring average under par which included all four of the Par 5’s. Its difficulty will be heavily based on the weather conditions. The course should also play tougher this year due to the recent renovation.
In terms of length, Royal Liverpool is relatively long measuring 7,383 yards. It ranks 15th out of 46 courses in length. The fairways are on the wider side, ranking 23rd of 46, with the average fairway width being 32.0 yards. The average green size is roughly 6,458 square feet which is on the larger side when compared to the other courses on the PGA Tour. There are 84 bunkers which ranks as the 13th most out of 46 courses.
The four Par 3’s, No. 6, No. 9, No. 13, & No. 17, range between 136 yards and 218 yards. At the 2014 Open Championship, all of the Par 3’s had a scoring average above Par.
No. 6 ‘New’, 201 yards, Par 3: “The first of four wonderful par-3s at Hoylake, the 6th hole plays slightly uphill to an elevated green. The front of the green has a severe run-off, with cavernous bunkers awaiting at the foot of the hill both front and left. Players who miss right will have their short game equally tested with a bank on that side and a green that then runs away from them. Middle of the green is a safe bet from the tee, but accuracy is paramount. However, in benign conditions and with a favourable pin location, the world’s best will see this hole as another chance to improve upon their score.”
No. 9 ‘Dowie’, 218 yards, Par 3: A fun par-3 as players reach the end of the front nine. The prevailing wind on ‘Dowie’ is usually right to left and slightly down, which presents problems. At 200 yards with a long green that runs diagonally from left to right at an angle, holding the ball up against the wind and landing it short is somewhat of a challenge. If the ground is firm, players will need to land the ball considerably short of the green to attack any sort of front pins, with two front bunkers making the entrance narrow. Run-off areas back left and a bunker to the left also can cause issues with back pin locations, particularly as the green sits at a slight left to right angle from the tee. The green also has a large amount of movement and holing short putts for birdie, or more likely par, will be difficult.”
No. 13 ‘Alps’, 194 yards, Par 3: “The favourite hole of many members at Royal Liverpool, the par-3 13th is a stunning hole that employs optical illusions to only add to the difficulty. From the tee it appears as if there is no room to the left, with only far-right pins fully visible, and the undulation of mounds 100 yards away blocking the view, leaving the impression that left is a no-go zone. In some ways that is true, with rough hillocks and difficult lies awaiting down that side, but there is considerably more room than first appears. The green runs diagonally from right to left, with a bail-out zone short and right. Anything pin-high right, however, can find significant trouble with a bunker to the right and a gnarly hill, from where an up and down is extremely difficult, that comes into play more than would be expected.”
No. 17 ‘Little Eye’, 136 yards, Par 3: “The new hole on the course is one everybody will be talking about come July. At just 140 or so yards, ‘Little Eye’, Hoylake’s newest hole, is a simply stunning creation, with an infinity green on a par-3 that plays directly out towards the ocean and Wales, which is just a few miles away. The green is raised above the player significantly. The sea of bunkers and huge fall-off areas to all sides, including all the way to the green, provide a striking scene and mean it is absolutely essential to hit the green, as any miss will leave a devilishly difficult up and down. Once on the green, the undulations are considerable and making putts is not easy, nor is finding the right location with the tee shot. The views are stunning and the setting is dramatic. The leader of The Open in July will be very happy to walk off the 17th with a three, particularly if the wind is blowing.”
Five of the eleven Par 4’s range between 450 – 500 yards. No. 11 is the shortest listed at 392 yards with the longest being No. 10, playing 507 yards.
No. 10 ‘Far’, 507 yards, Par 4: “Traditionally a par-5 at Hoylake and at The Open, the 10th will play as a par-4 in 2023, and suddenly becomes one of the most difficult holes on the course as players begin their back nine. The drive is fairly innocuous, however, placement in the wrong position can leave difficult lies for the second shot, which will probably be with a mid-to-long iron at best. A large mound in the middle of the fairway can also obstruct views to the green, which is slightly raised to the fairway. The green has a very steep run-off area to the left, and an even deeper bunker to the right, with the approach now more mentally trying with the hole playing as a par-4. Taking four at ‘Far’ will always be a good score, particularly under Open Championship conditions in 2023.”
No. 11 ‘Punch Bowl’, 392 yards, Par 4: “Although not the start of the back nine, the 11th marks the point where the player heads for home, as the 10th green and 11th tee mark the far point of the course from the clubhouse. The 11th runs back parallel to the 10th hole, and offers a beautiful view from the tee of the ocean to the left. The tee shot itself plays up to the top of a hill, and players will hope to get over that brow if conditions are favourable, leaving them with a short approach to a green that sits just below them. The approach is fairly narrow and tight, so the shorter the club in the players’ hands the better. Depending on pin placement, players can be aggressive in trying to make a birdie, but trouble awaits on both sides, with bunkers flanking the entrance to the green and difficult and steep swales to the left making for a tough up and down.”
No. 16 ‘Lake’, 461 yards, Par 4: “A long hole that can play even longer than its usual yardage, many players will lay back short of fairway bunkers on both sides and leave themselves well over 200 yards into the green. The green suits a running shot and welcomes low ball flights that enter through the mouth of the green, with bunkers left and right. However, a cross bunker 50 yards short can come into play if entering the green from the wrong angle. The surface itself is very big, and requires deft touch to navigate successfully. Into a stiff breeze, this is a very strong par-4 and requires the utmost of respect from the players.”
The three Par 5’s are No. 5, No. 15, & No. 18. In 2014, all four of the Par 5’s had a scoring average under par.
No. 5 ‘Long’, 520 yards, Par 5: “The 5th is arguably the best birdie chance on the course. The shortest of the three par-5s at Hoylake, a good drive on this hole that moves slightly off the far right bunker is ideal, leaving a medium-to-long approach into a well-guarded green. Players who enjoy moving their ball from right to left will be licking their chops on this hole, as both the drive and second shot require the shape to reach their intended targets, with the green set at a right to left angle and two bunkers guarding the entrance. Shots played up to the right may find their way down a hill to the green, but those that stray too far right potentially leave tricky chips, and any shot directly at the pin may find trouble either short or long. Much will depend on how the conditions play, but in any case ‘Long’ is a great birdie chance.”
No. 15 ‘Field’, 620 yards, Par 5: “The 15th hole, previously the 16th hole in past Opens, has been significantly lengthened since Rory McIlroy’s triumph in 2014, which included an iconic eagle on day three. In 2023 the hole will play over 600 yards, and if the wind is into the players’ faces, the hole can become quite intimidating in its length, particularly from the tee. With the prevailing wind, however, players can take a significant portion of length away from the hole by attempting to carry over a portion of bunkers to the right. Finding a bunker makes par a tough ask, but hitting the fairway certainly brings birdie into the equation. A lay-up is almost more difficult in some instances than going for the green, with a tight portion of fairway in the ideal wedge spot and a bunker lying in wait to the left. If they can reach, most players will have a go at the green, or play an aggressive lay-up to the right 60 yards short of the green. A number of bunkers line the left of the green and entry from right is the ideal angle, again suiting a player who can shape the ball right to left if having a crack from the fairway. The green is fairly difficult to putt on, with subtle slopes proving difficult at times. Nevertheless, this still provides a good birdie chance, barring a stiff headwind, as the players prepare to play the last three holes.”
No. 18 ‘Dun’, 609 yards, Par 5: “After navigating the 17th hole, the leader of The Open come Sunday 23 July will face a long walk toward the 18th tee, pondering the shot coming up the whole time, and it is no easy one. The 18th hole at Royal Liverpool, the members’ 16th, has seen two incredible Champions since its introduction as the closing hole in The Open’s routing. Tiger Woods claimed an emotional victory on the final green in 2006, while McIlroy secured his first and only Open to date in 2014 to a huge ovation around the surface. With significant changes in 2023, the hole will almost certainly produce even more drama this time round, and the potential Champion will have to produce a nerveless tee shot to help them on the way to victory. A remarkably intimidating opening stroke now awaits, as the Championship tee has been moved back around 50 yards and significantly further right, while the out of bounds down the right-hand side has ominously been moved 20 yards further left. The fairway now appears just a handful of yards wide from the tee, particularly with a necessary carry of 240 yards to reach the fairway and dangerous bunkers down the left. A brave tee shot is required, however, if players have any ambitions of a closing eagle, as with the additional length, the out of bounds is more in play for the second shot too as the hole curves to the right. On the approach, numerous bunkers surround the green, with the three on the left particularly likely to come into play for those bailing out to the left. This is a simply fantastic finishing hole that could produce double bogeys as easily as eagles.”
Featured/ Signature Hole(s): 17
For a hole-by-hole overview of the course, you can click the following link.
Key Statistics:
Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green
Strokes Gained: Putting (Bentgrass/Fescue)
Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green
Strokes Gained: Approach
Driving Accuracy
Birdies or Better
Bogey Avoidance
Scrambling
Par 3 Scoring: 200 – 225 (x2)
Par 4 Scoring: 450 – 500 (x5)
Par 5 Scoring: 600 – 650 (x2)
Major Championship History
Comparable Courses and Event History
The Field/ Odds:
There will be 156 players competing in this year’s Open Championship. Nineteen of the world’s top-twenty players are in the field with the only exemption being Will Zalatoris who’s injured. Here are the current favorites in this week’s event:
Rory McIlroy (+750) returns to Royal Liverpool golf club where he won the 2014 Open Championship. He’s also coming off a win at the Genesis Scottish Open. Including that victory, McIlroy has not finished outside the top 10 in each of his last six events.
Scottie Scheffler (+900) will play in his third Open Championship having finished T8 in 2021 and T21 in 2022. He already has two victories on the PGA Tour this season (THE PLAYERS and WM Phoenix Open). In his last seven starts on the PGA Tour, Scheffler hasn’t finished outside the top 5. Dating back to the World Wide Technology Championship, he has not finished worse than T12 (19 starts).
Jon Rahm (+1100) has won four tournaments this year, including the Masters. He struggled in his last tournament missing the cut at the Travelers Championship. Before that, he finished T10 at the U.S. Open and T16 at the Memorial Tournament. His best finish in an Open Championship was back in 2021 at Royal St George’s where he finished T3.
Brooks Koepka (+1400) won the PGA Championship in his last start in Major Championship. As of late, he finished 17th at LIV London and 3rd at LIV Valderrama. Before that, he finished tied for 17th at the U.S. Open. In his last six starts at the Open Championship, he’s finished inside the top 10 four times. Brooks played in the 2104 Open Championship the last time it was held at Royal Liverpool where he finished T67.
Cameron Smith (+1600) is the defending champion of the Open Championship and enters off a win at LIV London. Before that, he finished 12th at LIV Valderrama and 4th at the U.S. Open. In his only other Major Championship finishes this season, he finished tied for ninth at the PGA Championship and tied for thirty-fourth at the Masters Tournament.
Previous Winners in the Field:
Cameron Smith (’22), Collin Morikawa (’21), Shane Lowry (’19), Francesco Molinari (’18), Jordan Spieth (’17), Henrik Stenson (’16), Zach Johnson (’15), Rory McIlroy (’14), Ernie Els (’12, ’02), Darren Clarke (’11), Louis Oosthuizen (’10), Stewart Cink (’09), Pádraig Harrington (’08, ’07)
Notable Withdraws:
None
To see the most up-to-date odds, you can click the following link.
To see the full field for this event and how they qualified, you can click the following link.
Horses for Courses:
St. Andrews
Royal St. George’s
Royal Portrush
Carnoustie
Royal Birkdale
Royal Liverpool
Field Rating: 871
Field Rating: 863
Field Rating: 898
Field Rating: 902
Field Rating: 893
Field Rating: 902
2022
2021
2019
2018
2017
2014
Viktor Hovland
T4
T12
Scottie Scheffler
T21
T8
Robert MacIntyre
T34
T8
T6
Jordan Spieth
T8
2
T20
T9
1
T36
Tony Finau
T28
T15
3
T9
T27
Xander Schauffele
T15
T26
T41
T2
T20
Donkeys for Courses:
“Horses for Courses” is a phrase that is widely used and describes the best course/tournament fits. These are the players that have had success at the particular course/event. “Donkeys for Courses” is something I came up with that highlights the players who have struggled at a specific course/tournament.
St. Andrews
Royal St. George’s
Royal Portrush
Carnoustie
Royal Birkdale
Royal Liverpool
Field Rating: 871
Field Rating: 863
Field Rating: 898
Field Rating: 902
Field Rating: 893
Field Rating: 902
2022
2021
2019
2018
2017
2014
Guido Migliozzi
MC
MC
Jorge Campillo
MC
MC
MC
Adri Arnaus
T76
MC
Connor Syme
MC
MC
Oliver Wilson
MC
MC
Rikuya Hoshino
MC
MC
Alexander Bjork
MC
MC
MC
MC
Sungjae Im
T81
MC
Kurt Kitayama
T72
MC
MC
Gary Woodland
MC
MC
MC
T67
T70
T39
Takumi Kanaya
MC
MC
MC
Trends/ Fun Facts:
Nine of the last 10 winners had finished inside the top 20 in one of the Majors earlier in the season
Eight of the last 10 winners had posted a top 10 in the event prior
Eight of the last 10 winners had won an event earlier in the season
Eight of the last 10 winners had posted at least one top 10 in one of their three previous starts
Six of the last 10 winners were ranked inside the top 10 in the OWGR
Six of the last 10 winners had previously won a Major
Six of the last 10 winners were from outside of the United States
Five of the last 10 winners were 35 or older
Previous Winners Scores & Prices:
2022: Cameron Smith (-20) – St. Andrews
Price: 28-1
2021: Collin Morikawa (-15) – Royal St. George’s Golf Course
Price: 40-1
2019: Shane Lowry (-15) – Royal Portrush Golf Club
Price: 70-1
2018: Francesco Molinari (-8) – Carnoustie Championship Course
Price: 33-1
2017: Jordan Spieth (-12) – Royal Birkdale Golf Club
Price: 16-1
2014: Rory McIlroy (-17) – Royal Liverpool
Price: 14-1
Previous Winners Incoming Form (Last 5 Starts):
2022: Cameron Smith
T10 – Genesis Scottish Open (EUR/ PGA)
MC – U.S. Open (PGA)
T48 – RBC Canadian Open (PGA)
T13 – the Memorial Tournament (PGA)
T13 – PGA Championship (PGA)
2021: Collin Morikawa
T71 – adrdn Scottish Open (EUR)
T4 – U.S. Open (PGA)
2 – the Memorial Tournament (PGA)
T14 – Charles Schwab Challenge (PGA)
T8 – PGA Championship (PGA)
2019: Shane Lowry
T34 – Dubai Duty-Free Irish Open (EUR)
T28 – U.S. Open (PGA)
T2 – RBC Canadian Open (PGA)
T8 – PGA Championship (PGA)
T3 – RBC Heritage (PGA)
2018: Francesco Molinari
T2 – John Deere Classic (PGA)
1 – Quicken Loans National (PGA)
T25 – U.S. Open (PGA)
2 – Italian Open (EUR)
2 – Italian Open (EUR)
2017: Jordan Spieth
1 – Travelers Championship (PGA)
T35 – U.S. Open (PGA)
T13 – the Memorial Tournament (PGA)
T2 – DEAN & DELUCA Invitational (PGA)
MC – AT&T Byron Nelson (PGA)
2014: Rory McIlroy
T14 – Aberdeen Asset Management Scottish Open (EUR)
MC – Irish Open (EUR)
T23 – U.S. Open (PGA)
T15 – the Memorial Tournament (PGA)
1 – BMW PGA Championship (EUR)
Previous Winners Incoming Form (Majors that year):
2022: Cameron Smith
MC – U.S. Open
T13 – PGA Championship
T3 – The Masters
2021: Collin Morikawa
T4 – U.S. Open
T8 – PGA Championship
T18 – The Masters
2019: Shane Lowry
T28 – U.S. Open
T8 – PGA Championship
MC – The Masters
2018: Francesco Molinari
T25 – U.S. Open
T20 – The Masters
2017: Jordan Spieth
T35 – U.S. Open
T11 – The Masters
Picks (Outrights):
[I went a little heavy on outrights this week compared to other events this season. However, the more I went through the model, there was no way I could leave Scheffler off the card this week.]
Scottie Scheffler (+750) – BetMGM
Risk 1.10 to win 8.25 Units
Cam Smith (+2000) – FanDuel
Risk 0.40 to win 8.00 Units
Brooks Koepka (+2200) – PointsBet
Risk 0.37 to win 8.14 Units
Total Risk on Outrights: 1.87 Units
Picks (Top 20):
Tommy Fleetwood (+110) – PointsBet
Risk 1.00 to win 1.10 Units
Viktor Hovland (+115) – FanDuel
Risk 1.00 to win 1.15 Units
Tom Kim (+170) – BetMGM
Risk 1.00 to win 1.70 Units
[Just Missed Collin Morikawa (+115 – BetMGM)]
Total Risk on Top 20: 3.00 Units
Picks (Top 40):
Denny McCarthy (+115) – BetMGM
Risk 1.00 to win 1.15 Units
Brian Harman (+120) – BetMGM
Risk 1.00 to win 1.20 Units
Total Risk on Top 40: 2.00 Units
Total Risk on the Open Championship: 6.95 Units
Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting. Any feedback whether positive or negative, is always encouraged.
