Congrats to all Sepp Straka backers last week. He was unbelievable on Sunday posting a 62 to win the John Deere Classic by two strokes over Alex Smalley. I liked our position heading into Sunday with Schenk and McCarthy both tied for second but neither had particularly great final rounds.

Let’s get into this week’s storylines…

This year the course will play differently than it did last year. At the 2022 edition of the Genesis Scottish Open, the Par was 71 and the yardage was listed at 7,293. However this year, the Par has been changed to 70 and the yardage has dropped to 7,237. This year, the 7th hole has been converted to a long Par 4 instead of a short Par 5.

Xander Schauffele will look to defend his title this week at the Renassaince Club. His ball-striking ability was on full display which helped make up for his fair putting. Despite having no wins this season, Xander enters the week in great form having finished inside the top 20 in nine of his last ten starts.

The Genesis Scottish Open is one of the only other Links Style courses that players will face this year. It’s a great way for players to have some confidence heading into Royal Liverpool which is a similar style course. The final three spots are also up for grabs for those who haven’t yet punched their ticket to the 151st Open Championship.

The past four editions of this event at The Renaissance Club have come down to the wire. Last year Xander Schauffele won by one stroke but the three previous editions held at this course came down to a playoff.

Given that this is a co-sanctioned event approximately 75 DP World Tour pros will compete, based on their position on the Race to Dubai standings. Rory McIlroy currently leads in the competition followed by Jon Rahm and Adrian Meronk.

Tournament Information:

• Dates: July 13th, 2023 – July 16th, 2023
• Location: North Berwick, Scotland, United Kingdom
• Course: The Renaissance Club
• Course Type: Ocean Links
• Par: 70 (5x 3’s / 10x 4’s / 3x 5’s)
• Length: 7,237 yards
• Format: 72-hole stroke play
• Greens: Fescue
• Fairways: Fescue
• Rough: Fescue 3″ – 5″
• Bunkers: 83
• Water Hazard(s): 0 (In-Play on 0 Holes)
• Average Green Size: 7,000 sq. ft.
• Stimpmeter: 10 ft.
• Purse/ Winner: $9,000,000/ $1,620,000
• FedEx Cup Points: 500
• Field/ Cut: 156 Pros | Top 65 and Ties – 36 Holes
• Historic Cut Line:
  • 2022: +3
  • 2021: -2
  • 2019: -3

Comparable Courses & Greens:

TV Information:

• Round 1: Thursday, July 13th, 2023
  • Golf Channel – 8:30 AM – 1:30 AM ET
• Round 2: Friday, July 14th, 2023
  • Golf Channel – 8:30 AM – 1:30 AM ET
• Round 3: Saturday, July 15th, 2023
  • Golf Channel – 10:00 AM – 12:00 PM ET
  • CBS – 12:00 PM – 3:00 PM ET
• Round 4: Sunday, July 16th, 2023
  • Golf Channel – 10:00 AM – 12:00 PM ET
  • CBS – 12:00 PM – 3:00 PM ET

Weather:

• Thursday: Showers 63 F, 13 mp/h W, 72% Humidity, 43% Chance of Rain
• Friday: Showers 61 F, 10 mp/h SE, 83% Humidity, 83% Chance of Rain
• Saturday: Light Rain 63 F, 13 mp/h SSW, 80% Humidity, 81% Chance of Rain
• Sunday: Light Rain 62 F, 17 mp/h WSW, 75% Humidity, 71% Chance of Rain

Course/ Tournament History:

This European Tour event debuted in 1972 as the Sunbeam Electric Scottish Open held at Downfield Golf Club. One year later in 1973, the event was moved to the Old Course at St Andrews. Following that edition of the Sunbeam Electric Scottish Open, TV rights could not be arranged so from 1974-1985 no tournament was not played.

In 1986, the event was brought back as the Bell’s Scottish Open and took place at Haggs Castle Golf Club.

Just a year later, the event was moved to Gleneagles where it was held until 1994.

From 1995 -1996 the event was held at Carnoustie and was renamed the Scottish Open.

In 1996 the event moved once more to Loch Lomond where it was played until 2010 under a variety of different names. The 2011 event was held at Castle Stuart Golf Links due to the financial difficulties being suffered by Loch Lomond. Castle Stuart Golf Links would also host the event for another two years.

From 2014-2018, the event bounced around to several different courses before finding its current home in 2019, the Renaissance Club.

In 2022, this event became co-sanctioned by the PGA Tour and the title sponsor became Genesis.

Outside of playing host to the Scottish Open since 2019, the Renassaince Club has also hosted other notable tournaments including the 2017 Scottish Senior Open and the 2019-2020 Ladies Scottish Open.

• 72-Hole Record:
  •  262, Bernd Wiesberger (2019)
• 18-Hole Record:
  • 61, Bernd Wiesberger (Round 2, 2019)

Course Guide/ Scorecard:

Before the PGA Tour and DP World Tour hosting a joint event the Renaissance Club was a relatively easier course. From 2018 – 2021, three of the four winners finished with a score of -18 or less. However last year, the course was a bit more challenging due to the wind as Xander Schauffele only had a winning score of -7. Only five holes at the 2022 edition of the Genesis Scottish Open had a scoring average under par which included all three of the Par 5’s.

In terms of length, The Renaissance Club is longer than average measuring 7,237 yards. It ranks 18th out of 46 courses in length. The fairways are on the narrower side, ranking 16th of 46, with the average fairway width being 31.5 yards. The average green size is roughly 7,000 square feet which is on the larger side when compared to the other courses on the PGA Tour. There are 83 bunkers which ranks as the 15th most out of 46 courses.

The five Par 3’s, No. 6, No. 9, No. 12, No. 14, & No. 17, range between 147 yards and 218 yards. At the 2022 Scottish Open, none of the Par 3’s had a scoring average below Par.

Five of the eleven Par 4’s range between 450 – 500 yards. No. 5 is the shortest listed at 338 yards with the longest being No. 7, playing 505 yards.

The three Par 5’s are No. 3, No. 10, & No. 16. In 2022, all of these holes had a scoring average under par.

Featured/ Signature Hole(s): 13

For a hole-by-hole overview of the course, you can click the following link.

Key Statistics:

• Strokes Gained: Approach
• Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee
• Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green
• Strokes Gained: Putting (Fescue)
• Birdies or Better
• Par 3 Scoring: 200 – 225 (x3)
• Par 4 Scoring: 450 – 500 (x5)
• Par 5 Scoring: 550 – 600 (x3)
• Proximity: 175 – 200 Yards
• Comparable Courses and Event History

The Field/ Odds:

There will be 156 players competing in this year’s Genesis Scottish Open. Four of the world’s top-five players are in the field. Here are the current favorites in this week’s event:

Scottie Scheffler (+650) missed the cut in his debut at the Genesis Scottish Open last year. He’s been playing some great golf as of late having finished inside the top 5 in each of his last six starts on the PGA Tour. Since November, Scheffler has never finished worse than T12 in any event. During that span, he’s won twice including the WM Pheonix Open and THE PLAYERS Championship.

Rory McIlroy (+750) will make his debut in the Genesis Scottish Open this year. He won the CJ Cup in South Carolina to start his season but struggled a bit after that. However, he comes into this event in great form having finished inside the top 10 in each of his last five starts on the PGA Tour.

Patrick Cantlay (+1200) finished tied for fourth in his debut at the Genesis Scottish Open last year. He has yet to win this season after winning twice in the 2021-22 season. Despite having no victories, he has twelve top-20 finishes in his sixteen starts on Tour this season.

Xander Schauffele (+1400) is the defending champion of the Genesis Scottish Open. He has yet to win this season but has not finished inside the top 20 in nine of his last ten starts on Tour. Xander had his best finish this season during that span which was a second-place finish at the Wells Fargo Championship.

Viktor Hovland (+1800) missed the cut in his debut at the Genesis Scottish Open last year. So far this season, he’s won twice including the Hero World Challenge and the Memorial Tournament. He’s coming off a T29 finish at the Travelers Championship which was his first finish outside the top 20 in his last six events.

• Previous Winners in the Field (at The Renaissance Club):
  • Xander Schauffele (’22), Min Woo Lee (’21), Aaron Rai (’20)

• Notable Withdraws:
  • Vincent Norman, Harry Higgs, George Coetzee, Paul Haley II, Mark Hubbard, MJ Daffue

To see the most up-to-date odds, you can click the following link.

To see the full field for this event and how they qualified, you can click the following link.

Horses for Courses:

Donkeys for Courses:

“Horses for Courses” is a phrase that is widely used and describes the best course/tournament fits. These are the players that have had success at the particular course/event. “Donkeys for Courses” is something I came up with that highlights the players who have struggled at a specific course/tournament.

Previous Winners Scores & Prices:

• 2022: Xander Schauffele (-7)
  • Price: 20-1
• 2021: Min Woo Lee (-18)
  • Price: 200-1
• 2020: Aaron Rai (-11)
  • Price: 50-1
• 2019: Bernd Wiesberger (-22)
  • Price: 40-1

Previous Winners Incoming Form (Last 5 Starts):

• 2022: Xander Schauffele
  • 1 – Travelers Championship (PGA)
  • T14 – U.S. Open (PGA)
  • T18 – the Memorial Tournament (PGA)
  • T13 – PGA Championship (PGA)
  • T5 – AT&T Byron Nelson (PGA)

• 2021: Min Woo Lee
  • T17 – Dubai Duty-Free Irish Open (EUR)
  • T42 – BMW International Open (EUR)
  • MC – Porsche European Open (EUR)
  • T52 – Made in Himmerland (EUR)
  • T21 – Betfred British Masters (EUR)

• 2020: Aaron Rai
  • 2 – Dubai Duty-Free Irish Open (EUR)
  • T15 – ISPS HANDA UK Championship (EUR)
  • T44 – ISPS HANDA Wales Open (EUR)
  • T31 – Celtic Classic (EUR)
  • T44 – English Championship (EUR)

• 2019: Bernd Wiesberger
  • T2 – Dubai Duty-Free Irish Open (EUR)
  • T16 – BMW International Open (EUR)
  • 76 – U.S. Open (PGA)
  • 8 – Belgian Knockout (EUR)
  • 1 – Made in Denmark (EUR)

Picks (Outrights):

• Tyrrell Hatton (+1800) – FanDuel
  • Risk 0.45 to win 8.10 Units

• Rickie Fowler (+2000) – Caesars
  • Risk 0.40 to win 8.00 Units

• Tommy Fleetwood (+2200) – BetMGM
  • Risk 0.37 to win 8.14 Units

Total Risk on Outrights: 1.22 Units 

Picks (Top 20):

• Matthew Fitzpatrick (+100) – BetMGM
  • Risk 1.00 to win 1.00 Units

Fitzpatrick has played in this event all four times it’s been held at The Renaissance Club finishing T14, T42, T2, and T6. He had a great start to the season but dealt with a nick injury halfway through which hindered his game a bit. It looks like he’s returning to form as of late posting three top-20 finishes in his last four starts. His game also fits well for a Links-style golf course.

• Min Woo Lee (+160) – BetMGM
  • Risk 1.00 to win 1.60 Units

Min Woo Lee has been in terrific form finishing T15 (Betfred British Masters), T9 (Travelers Championship), and T5 (U.S. Open) in his last three starts. He won this event in 2021 (Abrdn Scottish Open) but missed the cut the following year. His main weakness was his putting in that event which has improved this season. Lee has gained strokes on the green in twelve of his last fourteen starts. His iron play has also been trending in the right direction as well gaining strokes on approach in three of his last four starts. Based on his recent form and course history, I think he has a great shot of finishing inside the top 20.

• Wyndham Clark (+160) – BetMGM
  • Risk 1.00 to win 1.60 Units

Wyndham Clark has been on a heater these past few months winning the Wells Fargo Championship and following that victory up with another at Los Angeles Country Club. Last year in the Genesis Scottish Open he finished T16. He struggled on the greens but that issue appears to have been resolved as he’s gained strokes putting in seven on his last eight starts on Tour. Clark’s game appears to be firing on all cylinders as he heads to a course that he’s had previous success at.

Total Risk on Top 20: 3.00 Units

Picks (Top 40):

• Alex Smalley (+100) – BetMGM
  • Risk 1.00 to win 1.00 Units

Smalley returns to The Renassaince Club where he finished tied for tenth in his debut here last year. He gained strokes in every category outside of putting where he lost 2.42 strokes. Smalley finished 159th on Tour in SG: Putting last year and has improved slightly currently ranking 141st in that category this season. However, he has gained strokes on the green in three of his last four starts and it’s been reflected in his finishes. In his last four events, he’s finished T2 (John Deere Classic), T47 (Rocket Mortage Classic, lost strokes putting), T9 (Travelers Championship), and T25 (RBC Canadian Open). His strong iron play should be an advantage on this course and I expect him to continue his solid recent form.

• Aaron Rai (+100) – BetMGM
  • Risk 1.00 to win 1.00 Units

Aaron Rai comes into this event in great form finishing T9 (Rocket Mortgage Classic), T24 (Travelers Championship), and T3 (RBC Canadian Open) in his last three starts on Tour. He won this event back in 2020 but has struggled in his two most recent appearances at The Renassaince Club finishing T35 (2021) and MC (2022). Rai has been great with his irons as of late which is encouraging heading into a golf course that requires precise ball striking.

Total Risk on Top 40: 2.00 Units

Total Risk on the Genesis Scottish Open: 6.22 Units 

Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting. Any feedback whether positive or negative, is always encouraged.