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MLB 5/26/23 Friday Freebie – Sports Betting
NFC South 2023 Preview – Season Win Totals – Sports Betting
NFC South: If you thought that the NFC North was like a game of Yahtzee, it might not be much different down South. More big changes come as every single team in this division, at least from mid-season last year, has a new starting quarterback. I do not remember the last time that this has happened. The good news for the division is that they get to play the NFC North, who is one of the weaker divisions in football. The other good news is that this division gets to play the AFC South, who IS the worst division in football. I mean, what a nice reward for sucking last year! Now they are gifted to play the two easiest divisions in football! Actually, being that you play yourselves twice, you get to play the four easiest divisions in football as well as three at large games! If two or more teams make the playoffs from the NFC South this year, it will be a crying shame. Let’s dig in.
Divisional Futures: (DK) Saints +115, Falcons +250, Panthers +380, Buccaneers +700
1. New Orleans Saints –
Vegas Win Total: 9.5 Juiced Towards the Under -125
2022 Wins: 7
Pythagorean Wins: 8.71
Schedule: Easy – At large games vs @ New England, @ New York Giants, vs LA Rams
Schedule Last Year: Medium
Key Losses: DT David Onyemata, OLB Kaden Elliss, DT Shy Tuttle, DE Marcus Davenport, QB Andy Dalton, S Justin Evans, CB Bradley Roby, WR Jarven Landry, RB Mark Engram, SS Daniel Sorensen
Key additions: QB Derek Carr, DE Nathan Shepard, DT Khalen Saunders, RB Jamaal Williams, S Johnathan Abram
Key draft picks: DL Bryan Bresee, Edge Isaiah Foskey, RB Kendre Miller, OT Nick Saldiveri, QB Jake Haener
Summary: Out of all of the preseason bets that should have cashed, the Saints to win the division was the main one. Choking that game vs the Buccaneers away made me want to puke, and it also reminded me of my long life as a Chicago Cubs fan. The Pythagorean win total of 8.71 was the highest in the NFC South showing the huge underachievement last year. Here is the good news. This schedule might be the easiest that I have ever seen in football. The highest power rated team that the Saints play for 2023 is the Jacksonville Jaguars with the Minnesota Vikings in second! I mean, I have never seen a team have it this easy. In saying that, I have some issues with this Sean Payton-less team. First of all, they did shed some big salary, but also lost a lot of key guys to their defense. The Saints also could have helped fix their offensive line, but decided to instead try and replace David Onyemata and Marcus Davenport. The Derek Carr acquisition is the elephant in the room. Baby you could drive my Carr should be an upgrade of Andy Dalton, but who knows how quickly he can grasp the offense. I also think that this team drafted pretty well and there could possibly be a Jake Haener siting at some point during the season. The season win total on this team shot up like a rocket ship, and it is now close to my number so no play, but I will also say that I would not be surprised if this team doesn’t live up to expectations. Just like they didn’t last year.
My number is: 9.36 wins
Action: No Play
New Orleans Power Rating: 1
2. Atlanta Falcons –
Vegas Win total: 8.5 juiced to the under -135
2022 Wins: 7
Pythagorean Wins: 8.14
Schedule: Easy – At large games vs Washington, @ New York Jets, @ Arizona
Schedule Last Year: Hard
Key losses: CB Isaiah Oliver, QB Marcus Mariota, CB Casey Hayward, LB Rashaan Evens, S Erik Harris
Key additions: S Jessie Bates, CB Jeff Okudah, DT David Onyemata, OLB Kaden Elliss, QB Taylor Heinicke, DE Calais Campbell, CB Mike Hughes, OLB Bud Dupree, CB Trey Flowers, WR Mack Hollins and a ton of other dudes.
Key draft picks: RB Bijan Robinson, T Matthew Bergeron, Edge Zach Harrison.
Summary: Gonna start out by saying that this Falcons team has really underachieved last year. This team was very good with the lead being that their run game was so good ranking second in the league, but unfortunately, the dirty birds now rank 25th against the pass, 23rd against the run, and 31st at passing the ball. THIS IS WHY I DO NOT UNDERSTAND THE BIJAN ROBINSON DRAFT PICK! Now just because they did some weird stuff in the draft doesn’t mean that this team didn’t do well in free agency. There are literally tons of talent coming into the Falcons this season. We should see an almost completely revamped secondary as well as some new guys on the defensive line in David Onyemata and Calais Campbell. What this team seemed to ignore some was at the inside, and outside linebacker positions. The biggest change for the dirty birds is the emergence of Desmond Ritter who actually finished the season pretty strong beating the Cardinals and the Buccaneers. I think that the real question is if there is an early drop off here between him and Mariota. I really think not, and if the fumble luck turns their way, I could see a successful season here with the second easiest schedule in the NFL.
My Number: 9.07
Atlanta’s Power Rating: -1.5
Action: Find an 8 and take it over and take them to make the playoffs at +180
3. Tampa Bay Buccaneers –
Vegas Win Total: 6.5 juiced to the under -135
2022 Wins: 8
Pythagorean Wins: 7.26
Schedule: Medium – At large games vs Philadelphia, @ Buffalo, @ San Francisco
Schedule Last Year: Medium Hard
Key losses: QB Tom Brady, OC Byron Leftwich, DT Rakeem Nunez-Roches, S Keanu Neal, CB Sean Bunting, LT Donavan Smith, S Mike Edwards, QB Blain Gabbert, T Josh Wells
Key additions: OC Dave Canales, QB Baker Mayfield, DT Greg Gaines, G Matt Feiler, S Ryan Neal
Key draft picks: DT Calijay Kancey, T Cody Mauch, and a bunch of prayers
Summary: It was the best of times, it was the worst of times. Or something like that. Needless to say, this Buccaneers team lost a ton with Tom Brady retiring, but let’s face it, Tom last year looked a little bit more like Joe Montana on the Chiefs rather than the GOAT of the national football league. For a minute there, I thought that maybe the Kyle Trask era was about to start, and then all of a sudden, they started feeling dangerous and decided to pick up Baker Mayfield. The confusing thing to me is that they haven’t traded off some of their leftover salary waste from their super bowl season? I mean, do you really think that this team will contend? There should be a fire sale on guys like Mike Evans, Shaq Barrett, Chris Godwin and Devin White. Lots of age right there and it just feels to me that maybe Tampa takes an early shot at being good. After they realize that they are not good, they start tanking to potentially win the lottery for a good quarterback like Caleb Williams. No chance that I can take the over here, but it is also very had to take an under with any teams in a division playing the NFC North and the AFC South. Gonna pass for now.
My Number is: 5.63
Tampa Bay Power Rating: -3.25
Action: Strong lean under
4. Carolina Panthers –
Vegas Win Total: 7.5 juiced to the over -135
2022 Wins: 7
Pythagorean Wins: 7.95
Schedule: Easy – @Seattle, @Miami, vs Dallas
Schedule Last Year: Medium Easy
Key losses: Coach Steve Wilks, WR DJ Moore, QB Sam Darnold, QB Phillip Walker, ILB Corey Littleton, RB D’Onta Foreman
Key additions: Coach Frank Reich, WR Adam Thielen, RB Miles Sanders, S Vonn Bell, TE Hayden Hurst, DT Shy Tuttle, C Bradley Bozeman, QB Andy Dalton, WR DJ Chark,
Key draft picks: QB Bryce Young, WR Jonathan Mingo and a bunch of hope
Summary: Lots of changes for Carolina this year and we can start right away with their new head coach. I remember being excited for the Colts when they hired coach Frank Reich, but after a few years, I have soured on him some. Now that Carolina has scooped Reich up, and let Steve Wilks go, I feel a little bit confused. Wilks revived this team last year, and for a minute, I thought they might win the division. What makes Frank the better choice here? Don’t get me wrong, Reich had his share of bad injury luck in Indianapolis over his tenure, but now he has to start from square one with a brand new quarterback to try and revive this team. Carolina did well in free agency this year grabbing some savvy veterans in WR Adam Thielen and S Vonn Bell, but I still think that their offensive line could use some work. Also, I am very concerned for the size of their new quarterback Bryce Young in the first year of this system. Carolina gave up a lot to get into the number 1 draft position including their star WR in DJ Moore. Their is no go to player now on this team that a young quarterback might need to bail him out of rough situations. Getting that final win last year vs the Saints actually hurt this team, and now their at large is much more difficult in facing Dallas, Miami and Seattle. The Panthers will start out as a fade team to me, and let’s see how long it takes for them to gel.
My Number: 6.98
Carolina Power Rating: -4
Action: Lean under
Expected Bets For – Episode 40 – May 25th, 2023
On this week’s episode of Expected Bets For, @FrancoTheBanker and I break down our best bets of the day for May 25th.
Topics:
- Introduction
- Around the League
- NHL Preview/ Picks – March 25th, 2023
- Vegas Golden Knights @ Dallas Stars
Twitter Handles:
- Podcast: @ExpectedBetsFor
- Patrick: @GatorBetting
- Chuck: @FrancoTheBanker
- Betzky: @gretzkybetzkys
Any feedback is encouraged whether it’s positive or critical so please give it a listen and let me know what you think!
MLB Thirsty Thursday Free Play – Sports Betting
Athletics vs Mariners -235 O/U 7.5
For a team that is 10-41, giving them a 32.1% chance to win this game feels like highway robbery (the implied odds of +212) as they have only won less than 20% of their own games, but let’s face it. Nobody is taking the Athletics here. JP Sears takes the helm for this bad Athletics team with a 4.99 ERA and a 4.98 FIP. He is facing Logan Gilbert who has been pitching well with a 2.68 FIP. 10.9 K/9 looks pretty good to me, but due to bad luck, his ERA is up to 3.81. I think Seattle certainly wins this game, but I do not love laying large juice in baseball myself so I am going to attack this a different way. Seattle has been an averaging hitting team thus far, but they have improved over the past few weeks and Oakland is just that team that could make them heat up. The Athletics give up a MASSIVE 7.14 runs per game thus far, and I do not know how anyone could take an under on this team with such a bad bullpen ranking dead last in FIP and ERA. Gonna shorten my juice to -110 and take the Mariners team total over.
Mariners TT over 4.5 -110 – 1 star
We head to Churchill Downs, for a Strong 8 Race Card
Thursday May 25th, 2023. Churchill Downs
First Post: 5:00 pm ET
Best Bet: Race 8 #8 Doubly Blessed
Value Bet: Race 3 #6 East Shore
Favorite I’m Against: Race 5 #1 Whisper Not
Race 1: SKIP
Race 2: #5 Cassius Win-Place
We have a salty 2yo MSW here, but the good news is NO WESLEY WARD. There are many ways to go, but I have landed on #5 Cassius, trained by Rey Hernandez. A smaller Midwest guy, not a household name, but 13 winners out of 81 races this year at 16%. It looks like he has a nice colt here. A 100k Fasig-Tipton purchase last October out of Classic Empire whose progeny have done fairly well so far and have found success winning debut. The dam Prosperity is out of Tapit, who is out of Distorted Humor who have had excellent success winning debut as well. Combine all this with a 36.4 gate drill 3/34 April 27th, and a 48.4 gate drill 3/38 on May 11th, it looks like we might have a horse ready to fire. We should get some value here with his FTS% being at 7%, hence the 12-1 ML. Small play on the 5 here.
*Careful with this race, don’t go crazy here as these 2yo races are usually tough.*
Race 3: #6 East Shore WIN
This is an intriguing N2L for fillies going two turns. I have come up with #6 East Shore. One of my stronger plays on the card. She gets back to a level I think she can win, and possibly wins easily. Her maiden score at CD last October was rather impressive. She didn’t break sharp, Martin rushed her up near the leaders, sat right off the pace most of the race, took the lead turning for home and drew clear. The connections thought a little too highly of her, went into a stakes race running in the back of the pack, but was won by Kentucky Oaks runner up Hoosier Philly. After two poor efforts in a OC100k/n1x, they now drop her in for 30 and face a cheap, small field. Draws a perfect outside post with tactical speed. Not to mention Romans has been hot as a pistol. Let’s hope these connections strike twice today! Singling the 6.
DD 6-5
50c Pick 3: 6/ALL/3,6=$8.00
20c Derby City 6: 6/ALL/3,6/8/3,4/1,3,5,9=$25.60
Race 4: Pass, use the #5 or ALL for multi race bets
By far the toughest race on the card, I’m either hitting the all button here or singling the 5. He’s on a 2 year layoff and drops in for 10k. Tons of red flags for a horse who was on the up and up. The works are respectable, and even if he is 50-60% of what he used to be, that should clobber or at the least beat this field. I don’t trust him enough though to bet on him here straight. No Plays here.
DD 5-3
50c Pick 3: ALL/3,6/8=$8.00
50c Pick 5: ALL/3/8/3,4/1,3,5,9=$32.00
Race 5: #3 Easy Time WIN, #6 Legal Attack
There are some fast older horses here, but Cherie DeVaux has a 5yo out of Not This Time making his 2nd start off the layoff and 3rd start with blinkers, #3 Easy Time. Hernandez Jr. made a gigantic move on the turn last month at Keeneland, then hung late and caught by Vivar who exploded deep in the stretch. The cutback to 1 mile from 1 mile and 1/16 should hit him right in the head. Also throw in the #6 Legal Attack, who won his debut in the states going 6F in 109.4. Stretches out today to a distance he was successful at in Europe as a 2 and 3yo. 3-6 here.
DD 3-8, 6-8
50c Pick 3: 3,6/8/3,4=$2.00
50c Pick 4: 3,6/8/3,4/ALL=$20.00
Race 6: #8 Doubly Blessed WIN *Best Bet*
This will be my best bet of the day, #8 Doubly Blessed. Trainer David Vance claimed this 6yo off of Micheal Maker last July for 62.5k and was forced to put him on the shelf until this past February. In his 1st start this year, he ran in the slop going 6F a distance that’s a little too short for him, then was off a step slow to boot. In his 2nd start ready to roll, Bowen pushed him to the lead, got pressed all the way around and fought 8 time winning machine Allege all the way to the wire. The cutback to 7F is right up his alley, his record will show 2 starts off the board at this distance, but one was in a Hcp20000s, and the other the G1 Forego. If he can match his 1 mile race two back, I think he’s the winner today. There is a ton of early speed in this race, but this horse is fast enough early to not be too far back, and Corey Lanerie loves to save horse. We should get an honest price with there being many ways to go. Single the 8 here.
DD 8-3, 8-4
50c Pick 3: 8/3,4/1,3,5,9=$4.00
Race 7: #3 Cancel This WIN, #4 Code For Success
My top pick #3 Cancel This, appears to be too fast for them here. She has lethal early speed since they added the blinkers two back, yes she quit badly but she was out of condition facing a n2x field. Her last start in the correct condition she ran a tough 2nd in the slop, until quitting badly late, including drifting out. The cutback to 6.5 furlongs should be short enough for her to hold on. I believe the only filly that will be moving up late, is Vicky Oliver trained #4 Code For Success. Be sure not to leave her off of your multi-race tickets as she could hit at a monster price. Hopefully this is a Romans/Garcia double today! 3-4 here.
DD 3,4/1,3,5,9
Race 8: #1 Icarus Win-Place, #3 Search Engine Win-Place, #5 Trident Hit, #9 Creative Minister
This is the strongest race on the card, but I want to take a shot with a price here, #1 Icarus. This 4yo gelding drew away from Barbers Road this past March at Oaklawn, who was an impressive next out winner. Was also his lone start going 9 furlongs. The next two starts he had to face Speed Bias and Seize The Night, then run in a 150k stakes race. I think this horse relishes the extra distance, draws the rail in a field with zero early speed, and has a fairly aggressive jockey early on. He should be near the lead and be able to sit a perfect trip. Be sure to include #3 Search Engine. Who has had some time off, been gelded since his last race and has had strong works. Also his one start at this level and distance were his career best. He could surprise here at a GIGANTIC price. For bigger tickets, include #5 Trident Hit and #9 Creative Minister. 1-3-5-9 in the nightcap.
*As always make these plays at your own risk, and make them for whatever amounts are suitable for you, this is how I would play them. Again good luck and have fun!
Podcast 35 – 23 – NFL Divisional Thoughts With Doug Upstone – NFC South Preview – Sports Betting
We have a great show for you today! Doug Upstone @DougUpstone from @Docssports is back to break down some early NFL! First, Kiev does his NFC South divisional preview with a nice play on an under the radar bet! Next, Doug comes on and the guys get into some major league baseball for starters. Then, the guys get right into the NFL with some teams that should make the playoffs this year that missed last year, as well as some teams that made it last year that might miss for 2023. Finally, Kiev and Doug give some thoughts on every single division in college football with a few more FREE PLAYS! Should you have any questions for the podcast, or games that you want us to cap during our shows, please message us at Info@TheOddsBreakers.com. Have a wonderful week!
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MLB Terrific Tuesday Free Play – Sports Betting
Dodgers vs Braves -188 O/U 8.5
Spencer Strider takes the helm for the Braves boasting a 2.18 FIP against Bobby Miller from the Dodgers whom is making has Major League Debut. Both teams rank 4th and 5th in wRC+ but the Braves have better pitching. This price is a bit high, but I think there is some value on the 1st 5 -.5 -140. It is hard for me to see the Braves dropping this one after the loss last night.
Braves -.5 -140 – 1 star
Charles Schwab Challenge – Preview & Picks
Brooks Koepka (22-1) wins the PGA Championship at Oak Hill! In addition to that, we also cashed T. Hatton Top 20 (+160) and T. Fleetwood Top 30 (+145)!
What an incredible week at Oak Hill. Brooks headlined the week as has now won five Majors including three PGA Championships. With that victory, it looks as though he’ll be in contention to represent the United States in the Ryder Cup this year.
It also wouldn’t be fair to leave out Michael Block, who has become an overnight sensation. He finished tied for 15th which is the best finish by a club pro at the major in nearly four decades. The head pro at Arroyo Trabuco Golf Club in Mission Viejo, California, has received a sponsor exemption and will play in this week’s event. He’s currently 600-1 on Pointsbet to win the Charles Schwab Challenge.
We now head to the Colonial Country Club for the Charles Schwab Challenge. Let’s get into this week’s storylines…
Jordan Spieth will return to Texas for the first time this season after withdrawing from the AT&T Byron Nelson due to a wrist injury. He played fairly well last week at the PGA Championship finishing tied for 29th. However, you could tell that he’s still dealing with some issues. Speith has some incredible course history at Colonial so we’ll see if that can get him back on track after an up-and-down season.
World No. 1, Scottie Scheffler, who went to college at the University of Texas, lost in a playoff in last year’s Charles Schwab Challenge to Sam Burns. He’s been great this season with two wins already under his belt and is coming off a T2 finish at the PGA Championship. Scheffler has also played well in Texas this season finishing T9 at the Cadence Bank Houston Open, 4th at the WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play event, and T5 at the AT&T Byron Nelson.
Sam Burns captured his fourth PGA Tour victory here at Colonial last year and will look to defend his title. However, he comes into this event in poor form missing the cut in his last two events. Burns does have one win on the PGA Tour this season which was at the WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play event (Austin CC – Austin, Texas).
Min Woo Lee of Australia and Ryan Fox of New Zealand, also earned Special Temporary Membership on the PGA Tour after their finishes last week and will both be in this week’s field.
- Dates: May 25th, 2023 – May 28th, 2023
- Location: Fort Worth, Texas, United States
- Course: Colonial Country Club
- Course Type: Parkland
- Par: 70 (4x 3’s / 12x 4’s / 2x 5’s)
- Length: 7,209 yards
- Format: 72-hole stroke play
- Greens: A-4 bentgrass .100”
- Fairways: Tifway 419 bermudagrass .350”
- Rough: Bermudagrass mix 3”
- Bunkers: 84
- Water Hazard(s): 4 (In-Play on 6 Holes)
- Average Green Size: 5,000 sq. ft.
- Stimpmeter: 12 – 13 ft.
- Purse/ Winner: $8,700,000/ $1,566,000
- FedEx Cup Points: 500
- Field/ Cut: 120 Pros | Top 65 and Ties – 36 Holes
- Historic Cut Line:
- 2022: +1
- 2021: -2
- 2020: -4
- Scoring Average:
- 2022: 70.72 (+0.72), Rank 11 of 50
- 2021: 70.21 (+0.21), Rank 18 of 51
- 2020: 69.57 (-0.43), Rank 13 of 41
Course Architect:
- Course Architect:
- John Bredemus & Perry Maxwell (1936)
- Recent Renovations:
- Perry Maxwell (1940)
- Keith Foster (2008)
Comparable Courses & Greens:
- Comparable Courses:
- Designer Link (John Bredemus & Perry Maxwell):
- Southern Hill Country Club – PGA Championship 2021 – Perry Maxwell (1936)
- Augusta National Golf Club – Masters – Perry Maxwell (1937 – Renovation)
- Memorial Park Golf Course – Cadence Bank Houston Open – John Bredemus (1936)
- Comparable Location (Fort Worth, Texas, United States):
- Memorial Park Golf Course – Houston, Texas – Cadence Bank Houston Open
- TPC San Antonio (Oaks Course) – San Antonio, Texas – Valero Texas Open
- TPC Craig Ranch – McKinney, Texas – AT&T Byron Nelson
- Comparable Yardage (7,209 Yards):
- Harbour Town Golf Links – 7,191 Yards – RBC Heritage
- TPC Southwind – 7,243 Yards – FedEx St. Jude Championship
- TPC Summerlin – 7,255 Yards – Shriners Children’s Open
- Comparable Greens (A-4 bentgrass .100”):
- TPC Twin Cities – Bentgrass .110” – 3M Open
- TPC Craig Ranch – Bentgrass .100” – AT&T Byron Nelson
- Muirfield Village Golf Club – Bentgrass .090” – the Memorial Tournament
- Augusta National Golf Club – Bentgrass .125” – Masters Tournament
- Accordia Golf Narashino Country Club – Bentgrass – ZOZO CHAMPIONSHIP
- Comparable Average Green Size (5,000 sq. ft.):
- PGA WEST (Pete Dye Stadium Course) – 5,000 sq. ft. – The American Express
- Torrey Pines Golf Course (South Course) – 5,000 sq. ft. – Farmers Insurance Open
- Spyglass Hill Golf Course – 5,000 sq. ft. – AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am
- Muirfield Village Golf Club – 5,000 sq. ft. – the Memorial Tournament
- TPC River Highlands – 5,000 sq. ft. – Travelers Championship
TV Information:
- Round 1: Thursday, May 25th, 2023
- Golf Channel – 4:00 PM – 7:00 PM ET
- Round 2: Friday, May 26th, 2023
- Golf Channel – 4:00 PM – 7:00 PM ET
- Round 3: Saturday, May 27th, 2023
- Golf Channel – 1:00 PM – 3:00 PM ET
- CBS – 3:00 PM – 6:00 PM ET
- Round 4: Sunday, May 28th, 2023
- Golf Channel – 1:00 PM – 3:00 PM ET
- CBS – 3:00 PM – 6:00 PM ET
- Thursday: Partly Cloudy 83 F, 8 mp/h E, 67% Humidity, 24% Chance of Rain
- Friday: Mostly Cloudy 84 F, 9 mp/h ESE, 57% Humidity, 19% Chance of Rain
- Saturday: Mostly Cloudy 83 F, 9 mp/h SE, 60% Humidity, 24% Chance of Rain
- Sunday: Partly Cloudy 87 F, 10 mp/h SSE, 56% Humidity, 15% Chance of Rain
Course/ Tournament History:
The tournament was founded 76 years ago in 1946. It’s the longest-running non-major on TOUR to be contested on the same course. The Charles Schwab Corporation became the event’s title sponsor starting in 2019. Their current deal is slated to expire after next year’s event.
The Charles Schwab Challenge is one of five tournaments to be given “invitational” status by the PGA Tour. With this “invitational” status the field is reduced to 120 and a larger purse.
Colonial Country Club hosted the U.S. Open in 1941, the U.S. Women’s Open in 1991, and the second edition of THE PLAYERS (1975).
After the tournament is over, Colonial Country Club will undergo an extensive 20 Million dollar renovation. It was scheduled for 2022 but due to supply chain issues, the process will begin after this year’s event. Gil Hanse will oversee the project who has previous experience renovating a Perry Maxwell design (Southern Hills). Hanse was also in charge of the Los Angeles Country Club renovation which will be the venue for the U.S. Open later this year. The project will “address every aspect of the golf course infrastructure” which includes a new irrigation system, new bunkers, tees, turf, and green complexes.
Colonial also has a unique tradition known as the Champion’s choice in which the former champions select two deserving young players, who otherwise would be ineligible, to compete in the tournament. Cole Hammer and Pierceson Coody are the two Champion’s choices this year.
- Most Tournament Wins:
- 5, Ben Hogan (1946, 1947, 1952, 1953, 1959)
- 72-Hole Record:
- 259, Zach Johnson (2010)
- 18-Hole Record:
- 61, Keith Clearwater (2nd round, 1993), Lee Janzen (4th round, 1993), Greg Kraft (3rd round, 1999), Kenny Perry (3rd round, 2003), Justin Leonard (4th round, 2003), Chad Campbell (3rd round, 2004), Kevin Na (4th round, 2018)
Course Guide/ Scorecard:
Colonial Country Club is one of the tougher courses players will face on Tour this season. In 2022, only four holes had a scoring average under par which were the No. 1, No. 2, & No. 11.
In terms of length, Colonial Country Club is one of the longer courses on Tour measuring 7,209 yards. It ranks 22nd out of 46 courses in length. The fairways are on the narrower side, ranking 4th of 46, with the average fairway width being 28.0 yards. The average green size is roughly 5,000 square feet which is on the smaller side when compared to the other courses on the PGA Tour. There are 84 bunkers which ranks as the 13th most out of 46 courses.
The four Par 3’s, No. 4, No. 8, No. 13, & No. 16, range between 190 yards and 247 yards. At the 2022 Charles Schwab Challenge, none of the Par 3’s had a scoring average below Par.
No. 4, 247 Yards, Par 3: This is the longest of the par 3s. The elevated green is difficult to hold. This is the only par 3 that has not yielded a hole-in-one during the 62-year history of the tournament. Last year, this was the toughest par 3 with only 24 birdies compared to 87 bogeys.
Seven of the twelve Par 4’s range between 400-450 yards. No. 17 is the shortest listed at 387 yards with the longest being No. 3, playing 483 yards.
No. 3, 483 Yards, Par 4: This is the beginning of Colonial’s “Horrible Horseshoe” — the three most difficult holes on the golf course. The long dogleg left requires a perfectly placed tee shot around a large tree and bunkers. A long approach shot makes birdies rare.
No. 5, 481 Yards, Par 4: This is the hardest hole, and the most famous, at Colonial and the last of the “Horrible Horseshoe.” The tee shot must be precise — there’s a ditch to the left and a river on the right. Even a good tee shot leaves a long, narrow approach. Last year, this was the toughest hole on the course with a scoring average of 0.302 strokes over par.
The two Par 5’s are No. 1 playing 565 yards & No. 11 playing 635 yards. In 2022, both of these holes had a scoring average under par.
No. 1, 565 Yards, Par 5: Off the tee, players will try to aim up the right side of the hole to avoid the fairway bunkers along the left. If they’re able to do so, they’ll have a wedge in allowing them a chance at birdie. Last year, this was the easiest hole on the course with a scoring average of -0.461 under par.
No. 11, 635 Yards, Par 5: This is a narrow hole requiring a precise tee shot off the tee. Most players will not be able to reach the green in two. Instead, they’ll lay up around 125 leaving them a short shot in while avoiding the several fairway bunkers.
Featured/ Signature Hole(s): No.’s 3-5 “Horrible Horseshoe”
Key Statistics:
- Strokes Gained: Approach
- Strokes Gained: Putting (Bentgrass)
- Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green
- Driving Accuracy
- Scrambling
- Par 4 Scoring: 400 – 450 Yards (x7)
- Par 3 Scoring: 175 – 200 Yards (x3)
- Proximity: 125 – 150 Yards
- Comparable Courses and Event History
The Field/ Odds:
There will be 120 players competing in this year’s Charles Schwab Challenge. Seven of the world’s top 20-ranked players are in the field. Here are the current favorites in this week’s event:
- Scottie Scheffler (+450) lost to Sam Burns in a Playoff last year at the Charles Schwab Challenge. In his other two appearances at Colonial Country Club, he missed the cut in 2021 and finished T55 in 2020. Last week at the PGA Championship, Scheffler made a late charge Sunday but wasn’t able to catch Brooks Koepka. He would go on to finish tied for 2nd. After finishing 45th to start the year, Scheffler has yet to finish outside the top 12 in his last fourteen starts. During that span, he has two wins which were at THE PLAYERS Championship and the WM Phoenix Open.
- Jordan Spieth (+1200) has some incredible course history at Colonial Country where he has only finished outside the top 15 once in his ten appearances here. During that span, he took home the trophy in 2016. Last week at the PGA Championship, Spieth finished T29th struggling on and around the greens. Before that, he missed the cut at the Wells Fargo Championship. However, he was in great beforeor to that finishing 2nd at the RBC Heritage, T4 at the Masters, and T3 at the Valspar Championship.
- Viktor Hovland (+1400) had a great week at the PGA Championship finishing T2. Unfortunately on Sunday, he played himself out of contention on the 16th, which cost him a chance at the Wanamaker Trophy. However, this was his best performance of the year in terms of strokes gained (+4.46) despite winning earlier this year at the Hero World Challenge. This will be his third appearance at Colonial Country Club where he finished T21 in 2022 and T23 in 2020.
- Tony Finau (+1400) struggled at the PGA Championship last week finishing T72. He lost strokes in every category outside of around-the-green. Before that, he finished T23 at the Wells Fargo Championship and won the Mexico Open. That victory was his second on Tour this year after he won the Cadence Bank Houston Open as well. This will be his eighth appearance at Colonial Country Club this week. His best finish was in 2019 when he finished 2nd, four strokes behind Kevin Na.
- Collin Morikawa (+1600) finished T26 in the PGA Championship last week where he gained strokes putting for the first time in his last four events. Before that, he had missed the cut at both the Wells Fargo Championship and the Zurich Classic of New Orleans. He’ll make his fourth appearance at Colonial Country Club with his best finish coming in 2020 when he lost in a playoff to Daniel Berger.
- Previous Winners in the Field:
- Sam Burns (’22), Justin Rose (’18), Kevin Kisner (’17), Jordan Spieth (’16), Chris Kirk (’15), Zach Johnson (’12, ’10), Rory Sabbatini (’07)
- Notable Withdraws:
- Kieth Mitchell (Undisclosed), Taylor Montgomery (Undisclosed), Parker Coody (Prior Commitment), Adam Svensson
To see the most up-to-date odds, you can click the following link.
To see the full field for this event, you can click the following link.
Horses for Courses:
- Jordan Spieth: T7/ T14/ T2/ 1 / T2/ T32/ T8/ T10/ 2/ T7
- Tony Finau: T19/ T34/ T29/ 2/ T23/ T20/ T4
- Viktor Hovland: T23/ T21
- Collin Morikawa: 2/ T14/ T40
Donkeys for Courses:
“Horses for Courses” is a phrase that is widely used and describes the best course/tournament fits. These are the players that have had success at the particular course/event. “Donkeys for Courses” is something I came up with that highlights the players who have struggled at a specific course/tournament.
- Sam Ryder: MC/ MC/ MC
- Luke List: MC/ MC/ MC
- Sepp Straka: MC/ MC
- Cameron Percy: MC/ MC
- Erik van Rooyen: MC/ MC
Previous Winners Scores & Prices:
- 2022: Sam Burns (-9)
- Price: 30-1
- 2021: Jason Kokrak (-14)
- Price: 60-1
- 2020: Daniel Berger (-15)
- Price: 70-1
- 2019: Kevin Na (-13)
- Price: 70-1
- 2018: Justin Rose (-20)
- Price: 20-1
Picks (Outrights):
- Tony Finau (+1400) – FanDuel/ BetMGM/ Caesars
- Risk 0.58 to win 8.12 Units
Finau has already won twice on Tour this season including the Mexico Open, and the Cadence Bank Houston Open (course comp). He struggled at the PGA Championship finishing T72 but heads to Colonial Country Club, a place where he’s had success before. However, when he won at Memorial Park he missed the cut in his previous event so I’m hoping for a similar bounce back this week.
In his seven appearances at Colonial, he has yet to miss the cut. In his last four starts at the Charles Schwab Challenge, he’s finished 2/ T23/ T20/ T4/. While his approach game was sub-par last week, he has been great this season otherwise ranking 5th in SG: Approach. This was also the first week he’s lost strokes in that category all season. Finau also ranks well in another key category this week SG: Tee-to-Green (4th). While he’s lost strokes on the green in his last two starts, he has gained strokes putting at Colonial in five of his seven starts here.
- Viktor Hovland (+1600) – BetMGM
- Risk 0.50 to win 8.00 Units
Hovland’s coming off a T2 finish at the PGA Championship. Despite a great finish, he has to be feeling like he let it get away a bit after that blowup on 16. However, this was his best performance of the year in terms of strokes gained (+4.46) despite winning earlier this year at the Hero World Challenge.
This will be his third appearance at Colonial Country Club where he finished T21 in 2022 and T23 in 2020. Hovland ranks well in both SG: Approach (7th) and SG: Tee-to-Green (11th). His fault has been his play around and on the green. Luckily for him, SG: Around the Green hasn’t necessarily been a key factor in the path to victory. However, you do need to putt well at Colonial. The good news is that he has gained strokes putting in each of his previous two appearances here and he gained strokes on the green at the PGA Championship which has a similar putting surface.
- Justin Rose (+3300) – FanDuel/ PointsBet/ Caesars
- Risk 0.25 to win 8.25 Units
Justin Rose has been trending in the right direction as of late. He’s coming off an impressive T9 finish at the PGA Championship. Before that, he finished T25 at the RBC Heritage and T16 at the Masters. Rose also captured his first win since 2019 earlier this year at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am.
He’ll make his tenth appearance at Colonial Country Club this week having won here in 2018 (Fort Worth Invitational). Since that win, he’s finished T58/ T3/ T20/ MC. Rose has been great with his irons this season ranking 33rd in SG: Approach. His play on the green has also been solid as he’s gained strokes putting in ten of his twelve starts this season. If Rose, can have a better week off the tee than last week, he should be in contention.
(Just Missed: Sungjae Im +2000 – BetMGM, [Solo Scottie Scheffler Card +450 – DK (2u)])
Total Risk on Outrights: 1.33 Units
Picks (Top 20):
- Rickie Fowler (+145) – FanDuel
- Risk 1.00 to win 1.45 Units
Rickie’s coming off a missed cut at the PGA Championship where he struggled on the greens. Before that, he has five consecutive top-20 finishes. This is only his second missed cut of the season in addition to the Shriner’s Children’s Open. After that event, he was able to rebound finishing T2 at the ZOZO Championship. He doesn’t have a great course history here as of late but did finish T5 in 2012. Fowler ranks well in both SG: Approach (10th) and SG: Tee-to-Green (17th). If he can figure things out on the green, he should fair well this week.
- Tommy Fleetwood (+145) – FanDuel
- Risk 1.00 to win 1.45 Units
Tommy Fleetwood is coming off a T18 finish at the PGA Championship where he gained strokes in every category. He now has three consecutive top-20 finishes. In fact, he’s gained strokes in every category in each of those starts. Last year, in his only prior experience at Colonial, he finished T35. Fleetwood ranks well in both SG: Approach (26th) and SG: Tee-to-Green (9th). Given the form he’s in, I think he continues his run of top-20 finishes.
Total Risk on Top 20s: 2.00 Units
Picks (Top 30):
- Cameron Davis (+110) – BetRivers
- Risk 1.00 to win 1.10 Units
- Ryan Palmer (+190) – DraftKings
- Risk 1.00 to win 1.90 Units
(Just Missed: Chris Kirk +110 – DraftKings)
Total Risk on Top 30s: 2.00 Units
Total Risk on the Charles Schwab Challenge: 5.33 Units
Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting. Any feedback whether positive or negative is always encouraged.
NFC North 2023 Preview – Season Win Totals – Sports Betting
NFC NORTH: If you thought that the NFC North was a mess last year, prepare for a total train wreck this year. I see problems problems problems with every team here, and will have a hard time trusting any of them. Starting with the Vikings, this was the most overrated team in football from the 2022 season. The Packers lost Aaron Rogers and I am not even sure how bad of a thing that is just yet. The Lions are the favorite but they didn’t do a lot to fix their run defense, while the Bears are a huge question mark with a running quarterback that really hasn’t proven anything as of yet. The NFC North gets it easy playing the NFC South, but on the other hand, they also have to play the AFC West which should be pretty darn good this year. Let’s see what’s going on with these teams.
Divisional Futures: Lions +130 – Vikings +265 – Bears +380 – Packers +500
1. Detroit Lions –
Vegas Win Total: 9.5 O -120
2022 Wins: 9
Pythagorean Wins: 8.8
Schedule: Medium Easy– At large games vs Seattle, @Baltimore, @ Dallas
Schedule last year: Medium
Key Losses: RB Jaamal Williams, CB Mike Hughes, CB Jeffrey Okuda, RB D’Andre Swift, WR DJ Chark, WR Quintez Cephus, WR Jameson Williams (6 games), S DeShon Elliot
Key additions: RB David Montgomery, CB Cameron Sutton, CB Emmanuel Moseley, WR Marvin Jones,
Who they drafted: RB Jahmyr Gibbs, LB Jack Campbell, TE Sam Laporta, S Brian Branch, QB Hendon Hooker
Summary: Last year, the Lions should have made the playoffs over teams like the Giants, Seahawks and the Vikings in my opinion based on their overall strength itself. The best thing that happened to the Lions in the offseason was retaining their offensive coordinator in Ben Johnson. A few other things didn’t really pan out for them. Somehow, a few players on this team thought it was smart to bet on football and it costed three jobs including WR Quintez Cephus who as cut, and a lesser 6 game suspension for rising star receiver Jameson Williams. Maybe this team needs a guy to follow these players on their off days? Maybe at least a life coach or something. Apparently the Calvin Ridley suspension didn’t teach them a lesson. Anyways, I like what the Lions did in the draft for the most part, but it could have went better had they decided to beef up the interior defensive line. I do like Safety Brian Branch picked in the late second round, and he should be an impact player immediately coming inot the season. One also has to really like how this team finished the season last year under Dan Campbell. This coach looks like the leader that this team has needed for so many years. I think the season win total is correct at 9.5 for this team, and the Lions should make the playoffs.
MY Season Number: 9.4
Action: No Play
Detroit Lions Power Rating: 3.75
2. Minnesota Vikings –
Vegas Win Total: 8.5 O -130
2022 Wins: 13
Pythagorean Wins: 8.32
Schedule: Medium Hard – At large games @ Philadelphia, vs San Francisco, @Cincinnati
Schedule Last year: Medium Easy
Key Losses: DT Dalvin Tomlinson, WR Adam Thielen, CB Patrick Peterson, ILB Erik Kendricks, TE Irv Smith, CB Duke Shelly, DE Za’Darius Smith
Key Additions: DC Brian Flores, TE Josh Oliver, CB Byron Murphy, DE Marcus Davenport, DE Dean Lowry
Who they drafted: WR Jordan Addison, CB Mekhi Blackmon, CB Jay Ward
Summary: The Vikings were the luckiest team in football by far last year over-achieving their Pythagorean win total by a whopping 4.68 games. Somehow this team won 10 out of 11 one score games which is insane to me. My big problem with them is that their schedule will be going from pretty easy to a 1st place schedule rated at pretty darn hard. The at large games here are absolutely brutal vs the Eagles, Niners, and Bengals. Another issue that I have with this team is that they really did not draft well in my opinion. I feel that the Vikings needed to get better at linebacker and interior defensive line in order to stop the rushing power of the NFC North. The Vikings also ranked 21st in sacks which was pretty low. Picking up Dean Lowrey and Marcus Davenport feels like more of a band-aid rather than a real solution. This is why I do not understand the Jordan Addison draft pick. The biggest change that I failed to mention in my podcast was the hiring of former head coach and now DC Brian Flores. Maybe he can bring some attitude to this defense, but they will be keeping the same 3-4 scheme. I expect to see a very aggressive blitz heavy defense that will either make A lot big plays or give up big plays. I don’t think that the personnel is there yet so I am very skeptical. Why not get some more help where you need it? In saying all that, this team still has a ton of talent on offense, and if Cousins can stay upright, this team should get to about 8-9 wins in this easier NFC North division.
My season number: 8.16
Action – Strong
Vikings Power Rating: 1
3. Chicago Bears –
Vegas Win Total 7.5 juiced to over -135
2022 Wins: 3
Pythagorean Wins: 5.09
Schedule: Easy – At large games @ Washington, @ Cleveland, vs Arizona
Schedule Last year: Medium
Key Losses: RB David Montgomery, T Riley Reiff, DT Armon Watts, WR Byron Pringle, C Sam Mustipher
Key Additions: WR DJ Moore, ILB Tremaine Edmonds, G Nate Davis, DE DeMarcus Walker, LB TJ Edwards, RB Travis Homes, TE Robert Tonyan, DE Rasheem Green, RB D’Onta Foreman
Who they drafted: T Darnell Wright, DL Gervon Dexter SR., CB Tyrique Stevenson, DL Zach Pickens, LB Noah Sewell and a bunch of long shots.
Summary: Hitting the Bears under 6.5 wins last year was easy like Sunday morning. Now there seems to be a ton of optimism in the market jacking the Bears all the way up from worst place in the league to close to the middle at 7.5 wins. Feels like a lot. After trading Roquan Smith to the Ravens, the Bears defense became the worst in the league by far, and many of the guys who were playing wouldn’t even make an average team. The Good news for the Bears is that they were very busy in free agency getting proven linebackers like Edmonds and Edwards as well as drafting some defensive line talent. There are still holes at the edge as well as the safety position where Jackson is getting old, and Jaquan Brisker has some learning to do. They Bears are relying on the talent to come through early and I just do not know if that is possible. The biggest unknown besides Coach Eberflus, is the throwing ability of Justin Fields. Fields could run the ball quite well when forced out of the pocket, but he also was the worst passer in the NFL by far. Let’s hope that the acquisitions of Robert Tonyan, DJ Moore, and last year’s mid season trade to get Chase Claypool helps the Bears make some big plays. With the acquisition of Guard Nate Davis, and the drafting of Darnell Wright, there will be no more excuses for Fields and his throwing abilities. Being that the Bears have one of the easiest schedules in the league, I agree with the win total being set at 7.5, but I certainly would not bet the over.
My season number: 7.55 wins
Action – wait
Chicago Bears Power rating: -2
4. Green Bay Packers –
Vegas Win Total – 7.5 juiced to the under -120
2022 Wins: 8
Pythagorean Wins: 8.36
Schedule: Medium Easy – At large games vs LA Rams, @ Pittsburgh, @ New York Giants
Schedule Last year: Medium
Key Losses: QB Aaron Rogers, WR Allen Lazard, DE Jarran Reed, DE Dean Lowry, WR Randall Cobb, TE Robert Tonyan, FS Adrian Amos, K Mason Crosby
Key Additions: FS Tarvarious Moore
Who they drafted: Edge, Lukas Van Ness, TE Luke Musgrave, WR Jadyen Reed, TE Tucker Kraft, Edge Colby Wooden, QB Sean Clifford and a bunch of guys
Summary: A huge transition year for the Packers for 2023. This team really relied on only two quarterbacks since the early 90s and now the big question mark is if Jordan Love can actually play some ball. Being that the Packers have extended him for 22.5 million, it at least shows some confidence in the kid. One thing that is for sure is that the packers shed a bunch of older weight from their team which makes them rely on the youngsters at the skill positions. The good news for this team is that they return a lot of guys on defense, but they still could use some work against the run where they ranked 2nd to last in opponent rush EPA. Packer fans have to love some of the talent on this defense and this will be what the Packers lean on going into the 2023 season. I think that the most logical outlook that I have for this new Packers team is that they will have a very good, if not great defense with a slow moving run first offense that under bettors love so much. They will not ask too much of Jordan Love even though he has some decent receivers in Romeo Doubs and Christian Watson.
My season number: 6.68 wins
Action: Lean under
Green Bay’s power rating: – -2
Expected Bets For – Episode 39 – May 22nd, 2023
On this week’s episode of Expected Bets For, @FrancoTheBanker, @gretzkybetzkys, and I break down the games for May 22nd/ 23rd along with the Conference Finals.
Topics:
- Introduction
- Around the League
- NHL Preview/ Picks – March 22nd, 2023
- Carolina Hurricanes @ Florida Panthers
- NHL Preview/ Picks – March 23rd, 2023
- Vegas Golden Knights @ Dallas Stars
Twitter Handles:
- Podcast: @ExpectedBetsFor
- Patrick: @GatorBetting
- Chuck: @FrancoTheBanker
- Betzky: @gretzkybetzkys
Any feedback is encouraged whether it’s positive or critical so please give it a listen and let me know what you think!
