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NFL Week 2 Pick

Green Bay Packers @ Atlanta Falcons

Atlanta Falcons Moneyline -122 @Draftkings Sportsbook Risk 3.66 Units To Win 3 Units

Took a 1-1 split last week and looking to get a winner this Sunday as the Atlanta Falcons will host the Green Bay Packers. There’s a lot of love out there for the Packers right now as they blew out the Bears 38-20 last Sunday. I think that was more of the Bears being a bad football team as they are one of the bottom feeders in the NFL. This will be a much tougher test for the Packers as they are on the road again against a better defense in the Falcons which ranks 6th in DVOA defense. The Packers do have some key injuries to there team as WR Christian Watson is questionable, LB Quay Walker is still in concussion protocol, and RB Aaron Jones and has not practiced at all this week. If Aaron Jones does not go in this game I have a hard time seeing the Packers being successful on the ground as AJ Dillon averaged a lousy 1.5 yards per carry against a bad Bears defense. The Falcons should get pressure on Jordon Love in this game as they had a pressure rate of 33% per dropback and didn’t have to blitz a lot to create pressure last week against the Panthers. If the Falcons stay true to who they are with success on the ground and don’t turn the ball over they should beat the Packers this Sunday. My Power ratings make the Falcons a 3 point favorite in this contest so take the Falcons with confidence on the moneyline.

College Football Friday Freebie – Sports Betting

 

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145-115-6 up 21units in 2023 MLB Thus Far on 9/7/23!

63% for 2022/2023 NBA sides and totals!   22-13 up 6.5 units.  14% ROI

55% All Time NFL Sides, Teasers, Parlays, Props and Totals!  5.21% ROI

56% 2022/2023 NFL Season 136-109-11 in Sides/Totals/Teasers/Season props up 38.5U

55% All Time College Football Sides, Teasers, Parlays, Props and Totals!  4.75% ROI

63% FOR 2022 COLLEGE BOWL SEASON UP 27 UNITS!

54% Lifetime All Plays in College Basketball – 3% ROI

38% Lifetime UFC On All Plays 3% ROI

62% 2022 March Madness College Basketball Plays at 30% ROI!!!

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NFL Week 2 Spotlight with Eric Rocco

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*On a side note, I do like the Vikings tonight with the points. The line is down to +6 or +6.5 in some places. Anything 6 or above is a play. DO NOT take anything under 6. *

Vikings +6.5 (BetMGM -110) risk 1.1u to win 1u

Washington at Denver -3.5 O/U 39 (4:25pm ET)

The Commanders crept by arguably the worst team in football Week 1 in D.C., the Arizona Cardinals. While the offense had plenty of problems, specifically the offensive line, the defense lived up to the hype. Holding Arizona to just 13 first downs and limiting them to 3 field goals with one being from 50 plus. Safe to say they held their end of the bargain. Now you’re probably thinking, big deal they stopped Joshua Dobbs and company who cares. For starters, they did this without Chase Young (I know, as usual), but also are playing with a rookie at cornerback. 1st round pick Emmanuel Forbes was everything and more in his debut but will be much more tested this week facing Russell Wilson and their ensemble of receivers.

Clearly both teams struggled offensively in Week 1. Denver’s top 2 receivers were back-up/3rd down running back Samaje Perine and TE Adam Trautman. Wilson had trouble getting the ball to his top targets and now must face one of the better back ends of defenses in the league. Washington is going to have its fair share of problems getting the ball through the air to their electric playmakers as well. Howell was sacked 6 times in Week 1 and was pressured by what seemed like every pass play. With all that said, the team who has the most success on the ground wins this game on Sunday. Give me Brian Robinson all day long. This is a smaller version of Derrick Henry. I know it’s a crazy comparison, but the more he gets the ball, the later it gets in the game, the stronger he is. He will eat away at this Broncos defense as the game progresses. Which will slow down the pass rush for Denver and give Howell time to get the ball to his speedy receivers.

Like I said earlier in the summer, the Payton/Wilson experiment is going to take time like anything else. Landing this hungry Washington defense Week 2 after a NON emotional performance the first week is a terrible combination. Give me the Commanders Week 2 with the points at Empower Field at Mile High. Do note I have multiple bets on this game, giving us max ability to CRUSH this game.

I do believe we will see a pick 6 or fumble 6 in this game. So, if you wanted to take a shot at a side bet of their being a defensive touchdown at obviously PLUS money, go for it! Throw some lunch money on it.

Good luck if tailing any of these bets, as always bet what you can afford to lose, stay disciplined and BREATHE…

  • Commanders +3.5 (Caesars -110) risk 1.38u to win 1.25u
  • First Half: Commanders ML +140 (Caesars) risk 0.4u to win 0.56u
  • Correlated Parlay (+264): Washington +3.5, Wash-Den under 39, risk 0.25u to win 0.66u

THREE Bonus Plays below:

1pm ET- Colts +1.5 (Caesars -110) risk 1.1u to win 1u

1pm ET- First Half: KC-Jacksonville over 25 (Caesars -110) risk 1.1u to win 1u

8pm ET- Patriots +3 (Caesars -110) risk 1.1u to win 1u

NFL Thursday Night Football Prop Play – Sports Betting

@theoddsbreakers

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145-115-6 up 21units in 2023 MLB Thus Far on 9/7/23!

63% for 2022/2023 NBA sides and totals!   22-13 up 6.5 units.  14% ROI

55% All Time NFL Sides, Teasers, Parlays, Props and Totals!  5.21% ROI

56% 2022/2023 NFL Season 136-109-11 in Sides/Totals/Teasers/Season props up 38.5U

55% All Time College Football Sides, Teasers, Parlays, Props and Totals!  4.75% ROI

63% FOR 2022 COLLEGE BOWL SEASON UP 27 UNITS!

54% Lifetime All Plays in College Basketball – 3% ROI

38% Lifetime UFC On All Plays 3% ROI

62% 2022 March Madness College Basketball Plays at 30% ROI!!!

If you want to take ownership of your health, try AG1 and get a FREE 1-year supply of Vitamin D AND 5 Free AG1 Travel Packs with your first purchase. Go to drinkAG1.com/oddsbreakers

 

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Podcast 63 – 23 – With Ralph Michaels from WagerTalk – College Football Week 3 & NFL Week 2 Info & Plays – Sports Betting

The OddsBreakers Sports Betting Podcast
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We have a HUGE show for you today!   It’s over-reaction week and the NFL!  Ralph Michaels @CalSportsLV from @WagerTalk comes on to talk some college football!  First, Kiev talks about the 140 people that went 5-0 in the Circa and how that could factor into a parlay price.  Next, Kiev talks about his power ratings that are public on our website as well as a nice future play for college football that looks like it has some value.  Next,  We get into NFL Week 2 with some thoughts and some more Free Plays!  Then, Ralph comes on to talk about some college football!  First, Ralph and Kiev talk about some future bets as well as some surprises this year in college football.  Next, Ralph blesses us with some great trends for college football week three.   After that, Ralph and Kiev talk some big game for the weekend with some agreement, disagreement and some plays.   Finally, Ralph gives us some NFL trends that are red hot on over-reaction week!   Should you have any questions for the podcast, or games that you want us to cap during our shows, please message us at Info@TheOddsBreakers.com.  Have a wonderful week!

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Quick Nine with Brady Kannon

The concept for “Quick Nine” is to give golf gamblers a behind-the-scenes look into their favorite personalities backgrounds and strategies.

On this week’s episode of Quick Nine, I talk with Brady Kannon about how he got his start in sports media and his approach to each tournament.

 

Topics:

  1. You went to the University of San Diego where you studied communications among other things. From there you jumped right into radio, was that always the plan to get involved in sports media, or what specifically led you to that field?
  2. You started your sports career on radio for KSFO Radio in San Francisco where you covered all Bay Area Sports before moving to Las Vegas to work for SportsFan Radio Network. Did your interest/ involvement in gambling start in San Francisco or Las Vegas?
  3. You produced a show for Dave Cokin in Las Vegas, what role in your gambling career did he have? He also shared a story about how you would hang out with Pete Rose at the horse racing track.
  4. You’ve run LVTeeTimes since 1996, Did your interest in golf betting start then or was it another specific time?
  5. Favorite Tournament/ Course?
  6. How do you approach a tournament?
  7. How do you construct your card?
  8. Common Mistake Golf Betters make?
  9. Advice for First-Time Golf Betters?

 

Video Link:

 

Twitter/ X Handles:

 

Any feedback is encouraged whether it’s positive or critical so please give it a listen and let me know what you think!

 

NFL Week 2 Betting Spots

Let Down Spots:

  • Buccaneers hosting the Bears after beating the Vikings outright.
  • Lions hosting the Seahawks after beating the Chiefs.

Get Up Spots:

  • Any team that got crushed.   Bears, Giants, Texans

NFL Week 1 Misleading Final Scores

  • The Bears yards were garbage yards so no positive power adjustments.
  • The Panthers out-gained the Falcons 281 to 221 yet lost 24-10.   A 3-0 turnover ratio and poor red zone hurt the Panthers.
  • The Vikings out-gained the Buccaneers 369 to 242 yet lost 20-17.   A 3-0 turnover ratio hurt as well as poor plus field efficiency.
  • The Texans out-gained the Ravens 269 to 265 yet lost 25-9.  A 2-1 turnover ratio and 13 penalties hurt the Texans.
  • The Patriots out-gained the Eagles 382 to 251 yet lost 25-10.  A 2-1 turnover ratio and bad plus side of the field especially at the end hurt.

College Football Week 2 Misleading Final Scores & Key Injuries

Misleading Final Scores

  • Iowa State out-gained Iowa 290 to 235 yet lost 20-13.  Equal turnovers, but poor coaching and poor officiating killed the Clones.
  • Northern Illinois out-gained Southern Illinois 360 to 219 yet lost 14-11.   A 3-0 turnover ratio did them in.
  • UAB out-gained Georgia Southern 385 to 344 yet lost 49-35.  A 3-2 turnover ratio and poor red zone hurt them.
  • North Texas’s yards vs FIU were garbage yards.
  • UCF out-gained Boise State 530 to 384 yet only won 18-16.   A 2-1 turnover ratio and poor red zone hurt the Knights.
  • Arizona out-gained Mississippi State 431 to 307 yet lost 31-24.  A 5-1 turnover ratio killed them.
  • Wisconsin out-gained Washington State 368 to 332 yet lost 31-22.  A 3-0 turnover ratio killed my Badgers.
  • Cal out-gained Auburn 273 to 230 yet lost 14-10.  They won the turnover battle 4-3 but was horrible in the red zone and on the plus side of the field.

Key Injuries:

  • Central Florida QB John Rhys Plumlee: Will be out a few weeks
  • Tulane quarterback Michael Pratt was a surprise scratch on Saturday.   Questionable this week.
  • UCONN quarterback Jo Fagnano is out for the season with a shoulder injury.  TaQuan Robinson who was supposed to start last year in now QB1.

College Football Week 3 Betting Spots

Let Down Spots:

  • Texas hosting Wyoming after beating Alabama could start slow.
  • Colorado hosting Colorado State after beating Nebraska.
  • James Madison at Troy after beating Virginia.
  • Rice hosting Texas Southern after beating Houston.

Get Up Spots:

  • Wisconsin better look better vs Georgia Southern this weekend.
  • Alabama might embarrass South Florida after their loss.
  • Houston better improve vs TCU this weekend.

Look Ahead Spots

  • Oregon looking past Hawaii to Colorado.
  • Colorado looking past Colorado State to Oregon.
  • Florida State looking past Boston College to Clemson.