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Articles are 6-0 the last two days, and 8-2 the last four days!
Charlotte at Washington -5 (O/U 235.5)
This is a play I have landed on quite a few times recently, what’s the saying? ‘Don’t try to fix it if it ain’t broken.’ Quite honestly it’s the perfect spot for this play, Washington got man handled in every facet of game Monday vs the Cavs. With Cleveland shooting north of 60% for much of the game until the starters were pulled. The Wizards previous two games were two big blown leads vs Portland and Brooklyn. Well, they landed the perfect opponent, a Charlotte team who has not had much go right in 22’/23. The Hornets rank in the bottom 5 in almost every offensive category, except attempts due to their offensive rebounding skills. They have played 8 of 11 away, and have been behind in 10 of their last 11 at half. No correction, buried at half in a lot of them. This bodes great for the Wizards who come out firing! Up until this past Monday’s dismantling, they were ahead at half in 7 of 8 and up 8 points or more in 6 of them.
1H: Wizards -2.5 (DraftKings -110) 1 unit
Minnesota at Utah -5.5 (O/U 236)
The T’Wolves got utterly pummeled and embarrassed Tuesday night in Denver! Then again, some would argue Denver is the best team in basketball. Previous to last night, they were winners of 7 of 10 games. With wins vs Denver(their B team), Golden State, Sacramento and Memphis, who are your current 1/2/3 and 7 seeds in the West. They would be considered well rested, playing 11 of 15 at home and 15 of 21 at home. Also most starters stayed on the bench for most of the 2nd half last night.
In this series, the road team has won the previous 3 match-ups, with Minnesota shooting 53% from the field in the last two. The Wolves are 5-0-1 their last 6 in Utah, and more importantly are 6-2 ATS their last 8, off a SU loss. While the Jazz are 7-14 ATS overall as 7 point favorites or less.
This Jazz team is sloppy, ranking 24th offensively in turnovers, while Minnesota forces 16.1 of them per game. Recently this Jazz team has been who most thought they would be coming into the season. They have definitively outplayed their expectations, but I believe that has started to dwindle down and is a great spot for the Wolves.
This T’Wolves team is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 back to backs, winning OUTRIGHT in all 4 covers! They have come ready to roll in this spot recently and I expect a big effort tonight.
*UNIT UPGRADE*
T Wolves +5.5 (BetRivers -108) 2.25 units
T Wolves ML+180 (BetRivers) 0.5 unit
Golden State at Portland -2.5 (O/U 234.5)
We close out the night with a positional 1st Quarter play! No Steph no problem for the Warriors, winning decisively vs OKC two nights ago. In their last 10 games, the Warriors have been ahead after one in 8 of 10 of them. Ranking 1st offensively in points averaging over 31 of them in the 1st quarter. There previous 5 away games, they have been ahead in all 5 at the end of one.
The previous meeting between the two, GSW won by 6, but led by 16 after the first. This Portland team does just not come out of the gate fast for one reason or another. Averaging only 27 points in the first, being down in 8 of their last 10. With a negative margin of -8.2! Yes the Warriors don’t have a great road record, but that will be irrelevant for us since we are only playing the 1st quarter.
The Warriors pass the ball and shoot the 3 well. Both categories Portland will struggle with tonight. Look for Golden State to storm out of the gate and cover this 1st quarter line.
*UNIT UPGRADE*
Warriors +0.5 (BetMGM -105) 1.25 units
Good luck to all those if tailing, let’s keep building!
On this week’s episode of Expected Bets For, @FrancoTheBanker, @gretzkybetzkys, and I break down the games for February 7th along with several other topics.
Topics:
Introduction
NHL Preview/ Picks – February 7th, 2023
Colorado Avalanche @ Pittsburgh Penguins
San Jose Sharks @ Tampa Bay Lightning
Edmonton Oilers @ Detroit Red Wings
Seattle Kraken @ New York Islanders
Vegas Golden Knights @ Nashville Predators
Anaheim Ducks @ Chicago Blackhawks
Twitter Handles:
Podcast: @ExpectedBetsFor
Patrick: @GatorBetting
Chuck: @FrancoTheBanker
Betzky: @gretzkybetzkys
Any feedback is encouraged whether it’s positive or critical so please give it a listen and let me know what you think!
If you enjoy my content, feel free to give me a follow @TrustRocco on Twitter!
NY Knicks at Orlando +1 (O/U 225)
I see a lot of sharps are on the Magic side here, with this line fluttering between -1 and -1.5 all day. I personally don’t buy into the Magic hype here currently, I have also noted they struggle against bigger more physical teams. Well the Knicks are all of that and more!
When these two teams faced off against each other in October at the MSG, the Knicks came away with a 13 point victory, grabbing 18 offensive boards in the process. This Knick defense has improved leaps and bounds from earlier on in the season, currently ranking 2nd in field goal % giving up only 45.4% per game. They come off a victory holding Philadelphia to only 41% shooting. This does not bode well for an over-traveled Magic team, who has shot 45.6% from the field in their last five and have only played 4 home games in their last 15. Yes they are 3-1 there last four at Amway, but 2 of the 3 wins came against Indiana and New Orleans who were enduring long losing streaks at the time.
The Knicks are 17-9 away ATS, and are 10-4 away ATS off of a win. I believe the Knicks show their toughness tonight and over power a weaker Orlando squad for a victory!
Knicks -1 (DraftKings -110) 1 unit
Oklahoma City at LA Lakers -6.5 (O/U 239)
This is the first meeting of the season between these two clubs, as Lebron looks to set history needing just 36 points to pass Kareem Abdul-Jabbar in total points!
As far as our play, the Lakers offense has shown signs of life since Anthony Davis has been back in the lineup, averaging just over 30 points in the 3 games. LA just finished up a 5 game road trip, going 2-3, while having the last two nights off to rest up. OKC is on a back to back where they have given up 124 and 126 points in their previous two b2b’s.
This a tremendous spot for the over! As both teams have been flying up and down the court recently, ranking 2nd and 6th in pace. In OKC’s last 6 games, they have given up over 51% from the field and 120 points or more in 4 of 6. Both teams give up offensive rebounds, ranking in the bottom 5. Which will benefit OKC tremendously ranking 3rd in the league in made field goals, and now facing a Lakers team who ranks 29th in field goals given up. The Thunder have gone over in 4 of the last 6 games, with the two unders against a slow moving Cavs squad, and only shooting 37% vs lowly Houston.
Two huge trends I thought worth noting, when the Thunder are 3 point dogs or more the over is 20-9-1. When the Lakers are 5 point favorites or more the over is 6-0! While I don’t rely on trends, I thought these two would be very important tonight for numerous reasons as they both fit the scenario. The Lakers will try to get to the line and do it often, putting up points without the clock moving, averaging 26 free throws a game. I believe all things point to the over, making this a *UNIT UPGRADE*!
Over 239 (BetRivers -110) 1.5 units
Good luck to all those if tailing, let’s keep building!
When the calendar turned to 2023, UCONN had suffered just 1 loss and was talked about as the clear favorite to win the National Championship. Regression led to a 5-loss January, but I think the sentiment on this team has gotten far too low. It was unfathomable a few weeks ago to think you’d be getting UCONN at this short of a price on their home floor; I think this is a great opportunity to buy low.
Marquette has one of the nation’s best offenses, and specifically, they rank 1st in 2pt FG%. However, I think UCONN is one of the only teams in America equipped to stop this high flying attack. The Huskies rank in the Top 25 in both 2pt and 3pt defense, they crash the glass at a Top 25 rate, and they block almost 5 shots per game. I also think it’s likely that we see Marquette regress down the stretch of the season; on Saturday, they put up just 60 points vs one of the worst rim-protecting teams in the nation in Butler.
Marquette forces turnovers at an elite rate defensively, and it’s a must that UCONN takes care of the basketball tonight. However, if that box gets checked, the Huskies will hold a large edge on this end of the floor. UCONN is a Top 10 offensive rebounding team in America, while Marquette ranks just 286th in defensive rebounding %. Marquette is incredibly mediocre at defending the 3 and ranks outside the Top 200 in 2pt defense.
I haven’t sold on UCONN like most, and I’m not afraid to play against a Marquette team that’s best days are behind them. 4 is a bargain.
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Arkansas vs Kentucky -5.5 O/U 139.5
This game isn’t hard for me to figure out. Since Kentucky’s loss to South Carolina, they have regained form beating teams like Tennessee, Texas A&M, and most recently, Florida. In saying all of that, we can’t forget that Arkansas was one of the favorites to win the SEC, and they will be motivated here in this game. The Hogs will have some big advantages down low where they rank 3rd in near proximity points to Kentucky’s defense ranking a dismal 231st. Their size alone with Jalen Graham, and the Mitchell brothers at 6’9 a piece should cause some havoc for Oscar Tshiebwe, and Jacob Topin who is also 6’9 but nothing like his older brother from a basketball sense. Looking at the coaching, you have to give the nod to Eric Musselman over John Calipari. The Wildcats do not shoot good free throws ranking 252rd in the nation which is bad for a favorite when it comes to end of game fouling. Take the Hogs with the points.
Arkansas +5.5 – 2 stars
Toledo vs Akron -2 O/U 148
This will be one of your classic offense vs Defense matches. I have seen this many times, and when it’s the home team that has the defense, you have to look in that direction. Toledo is a solid MAC team that can shoot the ball well. They rank 17th in effective FG%, but their big issue is defending ranking a bad 287th in opponent effective FG% themselves. Akron ranks 197th in effective FG% and 92nd from their opponents which is more trustworthy if their opponents aren’t dialed in. The Zips haven’t lost a home game all year ranking 32nd in home court performance compared to Toledo ranking 264th away from their city. Why is this spread so close? Well, Toledo is a good at keeping their possessions ranking 7th in turnovers. Akron could lose the turnover battle some, but they should win the rebounding where Toledo only ranks 134th in offensive boards to 249th on defense. I expect the Zips to play well at home here and D up the Rockets enough to get the short cover.
Through the past two weeks, we have had a combined ZERO Sunday finishes on the PGA Tour! While last week’s event, the Farmers Insurance Open, had a planned Saturday finish, the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am did not. The delayed finish on Monday caused several players to withdraw before the final round either heading to Scottsdale or to the Monday Qualifier to have a chance of playing the WM Phoenix Open. Another issue with the delayed finish was the fact that the PGA Tour changed the cutline from top-65 to top-60. I understand that things can change but, that seriously impacts the betting market along with placement bets.
We came close to another outright at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am with Brendon Todd finishing T2. Keith Mitchell was also close finishing T4 but struggled in the final round on the greens.
The WM Pheonix Open will be one of the new ‘elevated’ or ‘designated’ events. This means that the prize pool will increase significantly in order to attract some of the game’s brightest stars. As you can see by the current field, it worked with 8 of the top 10 players in the world competing at TPC Scottsdale.
In addition to the WM Phoenix Open, the Super Bowl will also take place in Scottsdale this week. I wouldn’t be shocked if the attendance record set in 2016 was broken this week due to the influx of people. As always, the 16th will be the main attraction and will undoubtedly bring us some incredible highlights.
The Phoenix Open originated in 1932 under the name of the Arizona Open. It was then switched to the Phoenix Open in 1934 but after the 1935 edition, the tournament was discontinued. In 1939, the Phoenix Open returned with Byron Nelson winning by twelve strokes.
In 1987 the event moved to TPC Scottsdale where it is currently held. Before TPC Scottsdale, the tournament was held at Phoenix Country Club and Arizona Country Club. Waste Management took over the naming rights in 2010 and has retained the rights ever since.
This tournament is the best-attended event in golf, with a four-day attendance of roughly half a million people. In 2016, the PGA Tour record single-day attendance record was broken with 618,365 fans entering the grounds. The Waste Management Phoenix Open is one big party centered around the Par 3 16th. It’s referred to as “The Coliseum” and is essentially a free for all where spectators are encouraged to make noise.
72-Hole Record:
256, Mark Calcavecchia (2001), Phil Mickelson (2013)
18-Hole Record:
60, Grant Waite (Round 4, 1996), Mark Calcavecchia (Round 2, 2001), Phil Mickelson (Round 2, 2005; Round 1, 2013)
Course Guide/ Scorecard:
TPC Scottsdale was originally designed by Tom Weiskopf and Jay Morris and underwent renovations in 2014. It’s a Par 71 that’s listed at 7,216 yards. It features four Par 3’s, twelve Par 4’s, and two Par 5’s. TPC Scottsdale is a classic desert layout with firm fairways allowing for some of the shorter players off the tee to find success here. The elevation also plays a factor that provides additional support in terms of length. Accuracy off the tee is key this week with TPC Scottsdale having some of the narrowest fairways on Tour. However, the rough isn’t all that penal as it’s only listed at 2″ compared to the Farmer’s which was listed at 3″ plus.
The four Par 3’s range between 183 yards and 215 yards. In terms of stats, two of the four Par 3’s range between 175-200 yards.
No. 16, is the signature hole on the course and what most spectators come to the event for. It’s truly an atmosphere, unlike any other hole on the PGA Tour. The hole itself isn’t overly difficult as it played -0.073 strokes under par last year. Several bunkers surround the green which is the only threat players will face.
The majority of the twelve Par 4’s range between 400-500 yards. No. 14 is the shortest listed at 490 with the longest being No. 17, playing 332 yards.
No. 11, is the most difficult hole on the course playing 0.239 strokes over par last year. This Par 4 is demanding requiring a long and accurate shot off the tee. Water protects the entire left side of the hole with the ideal landing spot being on the right side of the fairway. The green is on the larger side but is protected by a bunker behind it. Par is a great score here with over 23 double bogeys being recorded on this hole last year, the most by a large margin.
No. 14, is another challenging hole that also played over par last year. Off the tee, players will have an uphill shot that’s fairly straightforward. The difficulty comes into play on their approach shot with an elevated green that’s protected by bunkers. If players do miss left of the putting surface it’ll make an up-and-down significantly more difficult.
No. 17, is a drivable short par 4 that players will need to compose themselves for after playing the 16th. Water does come into play along the left side so any miss should be right.
The two Par 5’s are No. 3 and No. 13. They’re both listed at 558 yards, so the key stat for Par scoring this week would be ‘Par 5 Efficiency: 500-600 Yards.’
No. 3, is the first Par 5 that players will face on the course. Off the tee, players will try to avoid fairway bunkers along the left side allowing them to go for the green in two. They’ll face a two-tiered green on their approach shot which can lead to some difficult putts depending on the pin location.
Featured/ Signature Hole(s): 16
For a hole-by-hole overview of the course, you can click the following link.
There will be 136 players in the field at this year’s WM Pheonix Open which is an increase from last year where there were 132 participants. 33 of the world’s top 40 players will be in the field. Collin Morikawa and Shane Lowry return to Scottsdale after not playing in this event the previous two years. Hideki Matsuyama will look to join Phil Mickelson, Mark Calcavecchia, Gene Littler, and Arnold Palmer as the only golfers to have won this event three times. Here are the current favorites in this week’s field:
Jon Rahm (+850), has already won two events this year in just five starts. In the other events, he has yet to finish outside the top 10. This will be his eighth time competing at TPC Scottsdale, finishing inside the top 20 in each of his prior seven appearances. Rahm also has some ties to Arizona as he went to school at Arizona State.
Rory McIlroy (+900), will make his second start of the season after winning the CJ Cup back in South Carolina. Most recently, he competed in the Hero Dubai Desert Classic on the DP World Tour which he won. McIlroy has only played in this event one time before which was back in 2021 when he finished T13.
Xander Schauffele (+1400), has never finished worse than T17 in his five previous appearances at this event. His best finish during that span was T2 back in 2021. So far he’s finished inside the top 15 in four of his five starts on Tour this year after withdrawing at the Sentry Tournament of Champions.
Scottie Scheffler (+1400), is the defending champion after he defeated Patrick Cantlay in a playoff for his first PGA TOUR title. He’s made six starts this season finishing inside the top 15 in five of those events.
Justin Thomas (+2000), has five consecutive top-20 finishes at the WM Phoenix Open. His best finishes during that span were in 2019 and 2020 when he finished 3rd. In his four starts on Tour this season he’s finished T40/ 5/ T25/ T25.
Previous Winners in the field: Scottie Scheffler (’22), Webb Simpson (’20), Rickie Fowler (’19), Gary Woodland (’18), Hideki Matsuyama (’17,’16)
Notable Withdraws: John Huh, Lanto Griffin
To see the most up-to-date odds, you can click the following link.
To see the full field for this event, you can click the following link.
“Horses for Courses” is a phrase that is widely used and describes the best course/tournament fits. These are the players that have had success at the particular course/event. “Donkeys for Courses” is something I came up with that highlights the players who have struggled at a particular course/tournament.
Tyler Duncan: MC/ MC/ MC/ MC/ MC
Kelly Kraft: MC/ MC/ MC/ MC
Mackenzie Hughes: MC/ MC/ MC/ MC
Joel Dahmen: MC/ WD/ MC/ T62
Robert Streb: T10/ T37/ MC/ MC/ MC/ MC/ MC
Sam Burns: MC/ MC/ T22/ MC
Adam Schenk: T55/ MC/ MC/ MC
Previous Winners Scores & Prices:
2022: Scottie Scheffler (-16) – Playoff w/ Patrick Cantlay
Price: 25-1
2021: Brooks Koepka (-19)
Price: 50-1
2020: Webb Simpson (-17) – Playoff w/ Tony Finau
Price: 14-1
2019: Rickie Fowler (-17)
Price: 22-1
2018: Gary Woodland (-18) – Playoff w/ Chez Reavie
Price: 50-1
Picks (Outrights):
Xander Schauffele (+1600) – BetMGM
Risk: 0.50 to win 8.00 Units
Xander has been in excellent form this year with finishes of T9/ 4/ T3/ T13. He also has some incredible course history to match. He’s finished inside the top 20 in his five previous appearances at TPC Scottsdale. His approach and putting game have been trending in the right direction in his last two starts. We saw him struggle on these greens last year but he’s gained strokes on Poa Annua greens at both the Farmers and Amex. Ever since he picked up those back-to-back wins last year, he’s been playing with much more confidence. He’s been trending toward a win this season and I think we could see him get it done here this week.
Tony Finau (+2000) – DraftKings
Risk: 0.40 to win 8.00 Units
Tony Finau started the season missing the cut at the WWT Championship at Mayakoba and promptly followed that up with a win at the Houston Open. Since that victory, he’s finished 7/ T7/ T16/ T9. Last year he struggled at TPC Scottsdale missing the cut but wasn’t in great form heading into the event. He’s shown he can have success at this course finishing 2nd in 2020 losing to Webb Simpson in a playoff. Finau has been great in all of the key categories this week ranking 13th in SG: Off-the-Tee, 9th in SG: Approach, and 8th in SG: Putting. He did struggle on the greens at the Farmers but has gained strokes in each of his three previous starts before that. If he can have success with the flat stick this week, I believe we should see him in contention come Sunday.
Collin Morikawa (+2500) – DraftKings
Risk: 0.32 to win 8.00 Units
Morikawa has been trending toward a win in his last three starts on Tour finishing 6th. 2nd, and 3rd. He’ll make his return to TPC Scottsdale after a two-year absence. Back in 2020, he finished T25 losing 1.17 strokes on the green. In terms of comp courses, he finished 2nd at the CJ Cup in 2021 which was hosted at Summit. Collin’s issues have always stemmed from his putting but in his last two starts, he’s gained strokes. He’s always been an elite ball striker and it was on full display at the Farmers gaining 2.22 strokes on approach. Last season, Morikawa ranked 36th in SG: Off-the-Tee and 152nd in SG: Around-the-Green and has improved this season ranking 11th and 91st in those categories. He’s not a long hitter but the firm fairways provide him an advantage along with ranking 1st in Driving Accuracy.
Total Risk on Outrights: 1.22 Units
Picks (Top 20):
Patrick Cantlay (+100) – DraftKings
Risk: 1.00 to win 1.00 Units
Patrick Cantlay will make his fourth start on Tour this season. In his last start, he finished T26 losing 1.48 strokes putting. Before that start, he finished T16 at the Sentry Tournament of Champions and T2 at the Shriners Children’s Open, which is a comp course. Speaking of TPC Summerlin, Cantlay has thrived out there finishing 1/2/2/T8 in his four other appearances at that event. He made his debut at the WM Phoenix Open last year finishing 2nd where he gained strokes in every category besides one (Around-the-Green). Cantlay has been in great form this year outside of his approach game where he currently ranks 132nd in strokes gained. However, he’s gained strokes in two of his last three starts and has never lost strokes on approach at TPC Summerlin or TPC Scottsdale. His tee game should allow him to find success this week and given the way he’s been trending in key categories; he should do well.
Sungjae Im (+110) – DraftKings
Risk: 1.00 to win 1.10 Units
Sungjae Im will make his first start at the WM Phoenix Open since 2021 when he finished T17. In his two other appearances at TPC Scottsdale, he finished T34 (2020) and T7 (2019). Im’s also had success at comparable courses winning the Shriners Children’s Open in 2022 and finishing 7th this year. Sungjae has struggled with his irons in the past but at the Farmer’s he was lights out gaining 2.35 strokes on approach. Off the tee, he’s not particularly long but makes up for it with his accuracy which is more important this week. In terms of putting, he gained strokes at The American Express which featured a similar green complex that players will face this week.
Total Risk on Top 20s: 2.00 Units
Picks (Top 40):
Rickie Fowler (-120) – Bet365
Risk: 1.20 to win 1.00 Units
*Que Kygo* The rebirth of Rickie Fowler is happening and people need to acknowledge it. He’s made six starts on Tour this season, making the cut in five of those events. His best finish during that span was T2 at the ZOZO Championship where he gained 2.89 strokes over the field. In his most recent start, he finished T11 at the Farmers Insurance Open gaining strokes in every category besides around the green. Luckily enough, that’s not a key category this week so we ignore it. Fowler’s approach play has been phenomenal this ranking 17th on Tour compared to 150th last season. The major concern this week for Rickie is his putting. If we look at his most recent performance at the Farmer’s he gained 1.42 strokes on a similar green complex as TPC Scottsdale. He won the 2019 WM Phoenix Open and has had success here outside that lone victory.
J.T. Poston (+100) – Bet365
Risk: 1.00 to win 1.00 Units
J.T. Poston has been in great form following his win at the John Deere Classic last year. In his last four starts on Tour, he’s finished T21/ T21/ T21/ T6. Despite ranking 72nd on Tour in SG: Approach, he’s been trending in the right direction gaining strokes in that category in each of his last four starts. His putting has also been better as of late, highlighted by his performance at the Amex gaining 1.23 strokes on the green. In his last two appearances at the WM Phoenix Open, he’s finished T11 and T23. At the Shriner’s Open this season, he played well finishing T20. When you combine his recent play and course history, J.T. Poston should have success this week.
Total Risk on Top 40s: 2.20 Units
Total Risk on the WM Pheonix Open: 5.42 Units
Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting. Any feedback whether positive or negative is always encouraged.
If you enjoy my content, feel free to give me a follow @TrustRocco on Twitter!
It’s a very interesting Monday night slate. 5/8 are road favorites, 3/8 are 9 point favorites or more and 7/8 are 4 point favorites or more. What does that mean? Well, could be a long night for punters(British term for gamblers)!
There is one road favorite I’ll be backing that shouldn’t have any trouble! I’ll give you a hint: ANTLERS!
Cleveland at Washington +1 (O/U 223)
The Wizards come off two devastating losses, up 20+ points in each. Now head back home to face the #1 defense in the NBA. What I liked about them recently was how much their defense has improved. In the past two games one would not know that. I think they rebound tonight defensively against a club who has struggled to score on the road this season ranking 28th in total points.
Both teams play a tight defense and don’t give up easy buckets, ranking 1st(Cle) and 6th(Wash) in assists given up per game. Both teams rank fairly well in the turnover category offensively. So pace should play a huge factor tonight with Cleveland being the slowest team in the league and Washington ranking 17th.
When the Wizards are on 2 days rest, the O/U is 9-16, and 2-7-1 in the last 10. As far as the Cavs, when on 0 days rest the O/U is 0-6 in their last 6 games and unders have come in 5/6 when off a win. Needless to say I like the under here!
Under 223 (DraftKings -110) 0.75 unit
Milwaukee at Portland +4 1/2 (O/U 242 1/2)
I absolutely love this game! Going with 3 plays here, including a rare player prop.
Milwaukee comes into this game well rested! With no back to backs in three weeks, they have played 5/6 at home, also 7/10 at home. With their only away games at Indiana, Cleveland and Detroit, meaning very little travel. The Bucks are 6-4 ATS in their last 10, some would say, so what? Well in their 4 non covers, Giannis was out for one, two they were -10 and above and the fourth they made a huge comeback vs LAC. For the season the Bucks are 19-6-2 as favorites of 7 points or less.
Portland is missing Nurkic for a technically 3rd straight game, this will be huge tonight not being able to keep Giannis off the glass. The Blazers are 28th in the league giving up 38.3% from three at home, this bodes well for Brook Lopez who has been ice cold from downtown recently! Going 0-12 in his last 4, but his last two away games he’s gone 5/12. In Portland’s 8 of the last 10 games, they have given up over 50% from the field and are in the bottom 1/3rd of the league defensively in assists, ast/TO’s, steals and blocks.
Portland comes out of the gate fairly slow for some reason, and they’re facing a Buck team who averages 30.1 points in the 1Q. Milwaukee has been up at the end of one in 7 of 9 games and up 7+ points in 6 of them.
1Q: Bucks -1 1/2 (BetRivers -108) 1.25 units *UNIT UPGRADE*
Bucks -4 1/2 (Barstool -107) 1 unit
Brook Lopez P-R-A over 19 1/2 (DraftKings -115) 0.75 unit
Good luck to all those tailing, lets have ourselves a week!
We’re back with a Monday Free Play for everyone! So far this season we’re up 34.44 Units in college basketball. We had an 8-0 Sweep on Thursday and avoided the Saturday scaries to keep the momentum rolling. We’re also 3-0 on Theoddsbreakers.com Free plays so far this season.
My Free play features The Battle of the Hawks with the Umass-Lowell Riverhawks (19-6 Overall, 7-4 America East) traveling to Hartford, Connecticut to take on the Hartford Hawks (5-18 Overall, Independent). The line sits at Umass-Lowell -16.5 with an Over/Under at 136.5. They will tip it off at 6:00 ET.
This one looks like an obvious mismatch on paper with Hartford checking in at 361st out of 363 in AdjEM accoridng to KenPom. UMass-Lowell is middle of the road checking in at 153rd overall. Hartford is averaging a meager 64.0 Points per game. Guard, Briggs McClain leads the Hawks with 15.8 points per game on 42.9% shooting. UMass-Lowell is averaging 77.9 Points per game good for 44th nationally. The Riverhawks are led by Senior Guard Everette Hammond with 12.7 Points Per Game.
These two teams met twice last season winning with Umass-Lowell winning both match-ups by ten points 85-75 and 83-73. UMass-Lowell is much improved versus last year especially on the offensive side of the ball. UMass-Lowell struggled on the road in January as they didn’t win a single road game going 0-4 for the month. They seemed to get right against NJIT at home putting up 90 their last time out. If Umass-Lowell has one weakness on offense it’s turning the ball over as they do so on 21.4% of possessions. They only turned it over 8 times against NJIT and it led to the large offensive output. I don’t see Hartford forcing them into many either. Hartford lost a slugfest to Chicago State 62-49 on Saturday where they went 4 for 21 from deep and only had 5 made free throws. Hartford has gotten a decent offensive output against some faster paced teams this season albeit ones not quite as strong on the defensive side of the ball as the Riverhawks. They scored (73) against Stonehill, 84 against Morgan State, and 71 against Sacred Heart recently. They’re 0-10 on the road so they should put forth a better showing in Hartford.
I look for UMass-Lowell to keep the momentum rolling in this one and try and get out and run early and often against this Hartford squad. I think Hartford will have to up the tempo as well before too long. I’ve got this one at 79-62, but like it wouldn’t shock me to see the Riverhawks approach 90.
We have a great show for you today! Derek Stevens @DerekJStevens from @CircaSports comes on to talk some contests and Super Bowl 57! First, Kiev gives out his take on the super bowl with a few plays that he has already made. Next, Derek comes on and the guys talk about Circa Football contests from last year as well as some questions about next season! Then, Derek talks about some of the huge events that @CircaLasVegas and the D are putting on for the big game! Finally, the guys talk about what is in store for the immediate future of Circa Sports! Want to ask us something? Or just want us to break down a game? Send us the question at Info@TheOddsBreakers.com. Have a wonderful week!
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Articles are 5-3-1 so far in February, so let’s close out this weekend STRONG with another unit upgrade! Will have all numbers updated on Twitter tomorrow.
Toronto at Memphis -1 1/2 (O/U 228 1/2)
If you have been reading my content, you might have an idea where I’m going with this game. The Grizzlies got embarrassed on national TV this past Friday when Brooks struck Mitchell in the groin. They have lost 7 of 8 and have struggled without Adams, who has been out since Jan 23rd with a PCL strain. During the last 3 weeks they have been without Bane as well as Konchar for numerous games, but they are much better than recent results have shown. Jaren Jackson missed the Cavalier game with a thigh injury Thursday, but looked good at practice yesterday and has confirmed he will be back tonight. They head home where they sport a 21-4 record SU and are 5-2 ATS off a loss at home. Where they will play quite possibly a perfect opponent. A tired Raptors team where Memphis will use their speed and extreme athletic ability against them. I believe they will go small tonight and just be too fast for Toronto.
The Raptors are finishing their 7 game road trip with their 7th game in 12 days. While playing 10/12 away, they have a record of 3-6 ATS in away games during that span. No Toronto does not turn the ball over much, but I think this could be a rare game where they have many of them when fatigue sets in. Not to mention they face a Grizzlies team who are averaging 17.8 TO’s a game defensively in their last 5 games.
I think Memphis gets back to their old ways where they lead the league in FG%, luckily Toronto has given up 52.2 FG% in their last 5. They will try to out shoot them and get easy looks.
