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Saturday, February 11th CBB Free Plays

By
Michael Fordham
-

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*CBB(1u): Florida 1H -5 vs Vanderbilt–2:30 PM CT

Vanderbilt pulled off the upset over #1 Tennessee earlier in the week… cool. I don’t think we’re getting back-to-back hero performances out of a pretty talentless Commodores team.

Florida has been through the ringer over the last 2 weeks, having to play at #5 Kansas State, vs #2 Tennessee(won outright), @ Kentucky, and @ #3 Alabama. The Gators are going to be licking their chops facing KenPom’s 179th ranked defense today after facing borderline elite teams across each of their past 4 games. Vanderbilt will get bailed out by teams who settle for 3’s, but that is not the makeup of this Florida team. The Commodores also struggle to force turnovers(332nd in TO’s forced), while Florida turns the ball over just 11 times per game(70th).

Vanderbilt is another team that is far more aggressive from 3 than they should be. This team shoots just 32.4% from deep, yet they hack up the 42nd most 3’s in CBB. Say what you want about Florida’s offense, but this is clearly a Top 10 defense in CBB that 9th in 2pt defense.

I love this spot for Florida, and I hate it just as much for Vandy. Rather than trust Florida to win by double digits(not their role), I’ll isolate this in the 1H. Water finds it’s level in Gainesville today.

*CBB(1u): Texas Tech PK vs Kansas State–6 PM CT

I’m of the belief that Texas Tech would probably be at least .500 in any other Power 5 conference but the Big12. In what other conference would a 1-10 team be a coin-flip vs the #12 team in the country?

Jerome Tang has done a phenomenal job with K-State this year, but that doesn’t mean there aren’t weaknesses to this Kansas State team. Kansas State is very mediocre in their 2pt offense(143rd in CBB) and relies strictly on the playmaking ability of Keyontae Johnson and Markquis Nowell to be productive. Additionally, the Wildcats are sloppy with the basketball, turning the ball over nearly 13.5 times per game(291st in CBB). Texas Tech’s main strength defensively is forcing turnovers, and they are solid at defending both the 2 and 3.
 Texas Tech does a better job of getting easy buckets inside(49th in 2pt FG%) and will hold an advantage on the boards at the offensive end. Kansas State will have an opportunity to force TO’s here, but all els being equal, I think the home team shows a bit more poise in this matchup.

I’ve been hesitant to fade K-State lately given their resurgence on the defensive end over the last few weeks. With that said, I think Texas Tech is deep enough into conference play where some of these narrow losses are going to start turning into wins. The oddsmakers wouldn’t put out this line at a PK(knowing everybody will unload on KST) if they didn’t feel damn good about the Red Raiders’ chances to win.

College Basketball Saturday Super Plays – Sports Betting

By
Kiev O'Neil
-

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Rutgers vs Illinois -5 O/U 135

This game isn’t hard to figure out.   Illinois has been heating up in Big 10 play winning seven of their last nine games.  They are a force from down low ranking 7th in near proximity shots.   Rutgers ranking 81st close to the rim, and 313th from mid range.  Rutgers is a great defensive team themselves ranking 3rd on Haslametrics in efficiency, but their best big defender in Mawot Mag was just lost for the season, and that is going to hurt down low.  Neither team can shoot the three ball all that well with Rutgers ranking 271st from the Arc and Illinois ranking 292nd.  This game is going to be won inside, and the Illini are the better rebounding team ranking 33rd on offense and 77th on defense to Rutgers ranking 58th on offense and 133rd on defense.  Illinois ranks 116th for home court performance.   Rutgers ranks dead last at 363rd away.   Take the Illini.

Illinois -5 – 2 stars

Baylor vs TCU +1 O/U 149

Bravo to TCU for what they have accomplished, but this team has lame duck syndrome all over them since they lost their point guard and leader Mike Miles.  Baylor is the number 1 team in offensive efficiency.  Their guard play is extraordinary with LJ Cryer and Adam Flagler leading the way.  Baylor’s only weakness is rebounding on defense, but we must not forget that Jonathan Tchamwa Tchatchoua is back for Baylor and has played well in his two games.  TCU’s weakness is from the arc only shooting 28.7% from downtown.   They also do not defend well against teams that pass the ball ranking 299th in assists per field goals made.  They also are a poor defensive rebounding team ranking 296th.   Baylor ranks number 12 in offensive rebounds and will have a ton of second chance opportunities.  Baylor is a great passing team and they have all the momentum now that they are finally healthy.  Take the Bears

Baylor -1 – 3 stars

 

Better Odds Sports Betting February 10th 2023 – Super Bowl 57 Props – Season 3 Episode 5 (57)

By
Kiev O'Neil
-

Today Kyle Hunter @Kylehunterpicks and Kiev O’Neil @OBKiev are joined by Ron Ace Sports @RonAceSports discuss the big game with some prop plays on Sunday!   Don’t forget our most likely dog to win outright that has been on a huge run!

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If you want to subscribe to support us and get some very frequent winners please Click Here to become a member of The OddsBreakers and gain access to premium plays BEFORE the line moves!  Or, you can visit theoddsbreakers.com and click shop and pick one of our great handicappers including Kiev O’Neil @OBKiev at only $84 per month on a 1 year subscription!  You could also support us at Patreon.com for only $10 a month to help us out and thank us for some free plays as well as get some extra benefits and merchandise.

Should you need a sportsbook please visit BetRivers.com and use the affiliate code, “Odds22” to get a 100% sign up bonus up to $250!!!! Terms, conditions and location apply.

 

The NEW look Mavericks head to Sacramento

By
Eric Rocco
-

If you enjoy my content, feel free to give me a follow @TrustRocco on Twitter.

Dallas at Sacramento -4.5 (O/U 232.5)

Jason Kidd has this new look Mavericks team feeling very good about themselves. Winners of two in a row and 4 of 5. This three game road trip is just what the doctor ordered, getting to be a ‘team’ again. They showed tremendous effort on both sides of the ball this past Wednesday in LA, and this new look team started to form a gel.

The Mavs are 4-1 ATS their last 5 away, but why is that important? They were rather not a good road team for much of the season, and reversing that trend against teams like Golden State, Utah, Phoenix and the Clippers. I think it is an immense sign going forward.

This truly is a great spot for Dallas, they landed an opponent looking to find themselves recently. Yes I know they’re off two road wins against the ‘lowly’ Rockets scoring a total of 270 points, but this shows me nothing. The Rockets remind me of a NCAA-F team who give up 500-700 yards weekly, and because of this we get a slightly inflated line. With the Kings giving up 52.1% from the field and 42.8% from 3 in their last 5 games.

Sacramento comes off a 7 game road trip of their own, where they sported a 3-4 record against not very quality opponents. As a matter of fact, there last 15 games they have faced only two quality playoff teams, and 5 of the 15 were even against playoff teams. Playing Houston 4 times, the Spurs twice and the T wolves twice. Also playing the Lakers, Thunder, Pacers and Raptors all teams near the bottom.

Now the Kings land a hungry, underrated Mavericks team looking to move up the standings. I expect a big performance from Dallas tonight!

Mavericks +4.5 (DraftKings) 3 units

Mavericks ML+155 (DraftKings) 0.5 unit

Good luck to all those if tailing, let’s get this 3 unit home!

College Basketball Buy Low Sell High 2/10/23 – 2/17/23

By
Kiev O'Neil
-

Buy Low:

San Jose State:  This team has some awful free throw luck with opponents hitting 77.2% from the charity stripe.   I think they clean up the turnovers and become more formidable down the stretch.

Washington State – Number 361st in luck in Kenpom.  This team had a bunch of weird injuries and they will get some guys back down the stretch.

Arkansas – This SEC team was picked to be top 2 preseason.  They lost some guys during the year, but the Mitchell brothers are playing some high quality basketball right now.

Sell High:

West Virginia – I like backing them in Morgantown, but this team has an away game 4 of the next 6, and I am not buying their top 15 ranking on Kenpom.

Rutgers – Losing Mawot Mag to an ACL is rough.  He was a great defender and 56% shooter from two.   OUCH.

Indiana – This team never does well down the stretch.  They have 4 of their next five games away from Memorial Stadium.  Looking to fade.

Mississippi State – This team had lucked out by getting both TCU and Missouri while they are hurt.

 

Podcast 12 – 23 – With Matt Landes– NFL Super Bowl 57 MORE Prop Plays – College Basketball Feb 10 – 12th – Sports Betting

By
Kiev O'Neil
-
The OddsBreakers Sports Betting Podcast
The OddsBreakers All Rights Reserved

We have a SUPER show for you today!  Matt Landes @MLandes18 from @Propsandhopspod joins us to talk some SUPERBOWL PROPS!  First, Kiev talks about a huge weekend in college basketball with some buy low, sell high teams as well as some Free Picks!   Then, Kiev talks some UFC 284 with a play on the main event!  Then, Matt comes on and the guys get right into beer and the Super Bowl!   What are some of the beers that they will be drinking for the big game?   What prop do Kiev and Matt like and why?  Which prop bets are they waiting on some line movement?  Should you have any questions for the Monday mailbag, or games that you want us to cap on our shows, please message us at Info@TheOddsBreakers.com.  Have a wonderful week!

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If you want to subscribe to support us and get some very frequent winners please Click Here to become a member of The OddsBreakers and gain access to premium plays BEFORE the line moves!  Or, you can visit theoddsbreakers.com and click shop and pick one of our great handicappers including Kiev O’Neil @OBKiev at only $84 per month on a 1 year subscription!  You could also support us at Patreon.com for only $10 a month to help us out and thank us for some free plays as well as get some extra benefits and merchandise.

Should you need a sportsbook please visit BetRivers.com and use the affiliate code, “Odds22” to get a 100% sign up bonus up to $250!!!! Terms, conditions and location apply.

Vucevic and the Bulls head to Brooklyn

By
Eric Rocco
-

If you enjoy my content, feel free to give me a follow @TrustRocco on Twitter!

Articles are 8-2 this week, and 10-4 the last five days. With the T’Wolves winning by 25 points last night for our 2.25 unit SMASH!

Chicago at Brooklyn -2 (O/U 226)

The Bulls come off their worst offensive performance of the season, arguably one of the worst offensive performances in all of basketball this year. They landed Memphis at the worst time, Chicago was playing back to back nights and Memphis was playing with somewhat of a chip on their shoulder. With them saying, “we are the most hated team in basketball.” Well, they took it out on Chicago Tuesday, holding them to 37% shooting and 89 points.

In the previous two match-ups between these two squads, the Bulls were victorious in both, winning by 9 points in each of them and crushing Brooklyn on the boards. With the Nets being completely healthy in each, and also before the destruction of their old team.

Yes the Cam Thomas era has begun and so has the new look Brooklyn team. They have had no trouble scoring points, but they have had issues stopping them. Giving up 115 or more in 8 of 9, 123 or more in 5 of 9 and 130 or more in 3 of 9. All staggering numbers in which I believe the Bulls will be licking their chops walking into Barclays Center tonight. DeRozan is questionable and could miss a 2nd straight game, but I believe the Bulls will have enough fire power without him.

The Bulls shot 51% in their previous 3 before the Memphis game, and have continued to shoot at a high % all year. They average 25 free throw attempts per game, and have held their previous 5 opponents to under 45% shooting. Combine all that with Brooklyn ranking in the bottom 5 of most rebounding categories, I personally love the Bulls tonight!

Bulls +2 (DraftKings -110) 2 units

Vucevic P+R over 32.5 (DraftKings -115) 0.5 unit

Good luck to all those if tailing, let’s keep building!

A Tale of Two Cities…

By
Michael Deverey
-

​”It was the best of times…”

Stewie & JJ

When the 2022 Champion Las Vegas Aces signed multiple MVP winner Candace Parker to an already stacked lineup they quickly became the favorites for the 2023 WNBA season.

To that end the New York Liberty said, “Hold my beer.”

After trading for 2021 WNBA MVP Jonquel Jones, the Libs then went and signed 2018 MVP and Syracuse’s own Breanna Stewart. With the moves (including the addition of all-star point guard Courtney Vandersloot), the Liberty have now vaulted from also-rans  to championship contender.

How dominant are WNBA some teams? The Aces won at a sizzling .722 clip last season and the Liberty are expected to dominate at much the same level. Both teams have tremendous home court advantages and look to sell out games at home and on the road.

What is the result for the rest of the league’s 10 other teams? Solid foundational franchises like the Seattle, Connecticut and Chicago have gaping holes to fill. Dallas, Atlanta and LA look to be moving on and up from 2021.

2023 opens with plenty of question marks and what ifs.  Will Mercury-player Brittany Griner play and fly commercially? What will the total re-builds in Chicago and Connecticut look like and what it the timeline?  Will the league sanction the Aces for tampering?

For sports bettors we need to look beyond the headlines and fully examine to the next tier of quality teams. I attempt to identify playoff caliber squads that can hold their own against each other and  dominate over the weakest members of the league.

The league has a number of of “have nots” whom offer great opportunities to fade over the entire five month season. In 2022 the Indiana Fever were so sickly that they played at a .139 clip (5-31). If you had gotten bored fading them how about the LA Sparks and their 13-23 embarrassment of a record?

Successful bettors find these opportunities early in the season and ride the wave through repeatable, long-tailed plays. With that in mind I offer my early February, pre-season power rankings of the 12 team league.

ALL ODDS PROVIDED BY BETFRED COLORADO

1) New York Liberty (+140)

The teaming of Jones and Stewart in the front court can not be overstated. Moving guard Sabrina Ionescu off the ball should also pay scoring dividends here with Vandersloot. Last year Sandy Brondello set the stage for an improving Liberty team to make a big jump forward in 2023.

2)Las Vegas Aces (+135)

The champs are making changes to their 2023 Championship roster. The splashy signing of Candace Parker masks what was a something of a disappointing season on-the-court for Parker. The backcourt of Kelsey Plum and Chelsea Gray is number one in my modeling. But did they or didn’t they tamper with free agents?

3)Washington Mystics (+1200)

Several big steps forward in 2022 gives this team some momentum heading into 2023. defensive stopper Brittney Sykes joins the leagues best defensive team in 2021.In addition the Mystics signed guard Kristi Toliver as a free agent. This team looks to be  very strong defensively and ranks #1 in my current model.

4)Los Angelas Spark (+5000)

Admittedly I am a fan of new coach Kurt Miller. Love what he did in his six years with the Sun despite his lack of championships.  Championship team? Not so much. But it is a team that could go on the road and win at your house. Miller gets Erica Hamby with a chip on her shoulder and an under-rated, under-utilized Azura Stevens. The Sparks were a mess last year (bye,bye Asssie Liz Cambage). Put a line through last season and let’s see what Coach Miller’s team toughness can do here.

5)Phoenix Mecury(+1800)

Signing Sophie Cunningham was a positive move for this team in transition. Not sure what Brittany Griner’s comeback year looks like but she is still a dominant player. Is Diana Taurasi coming back? The could pieces make this a competitive team. The fit remains to be seen. I am drawing a line through last season and watching closely here..

6)Dallas Wings (+3000)

With Marina Mabrey and Teaira McCowan still unsigned at press time I am taking a leap of faith here and looking for a positive turn. Natasha Howard is a nice addition and the Wings Arike Ogunbowale is one of the league’s most exciting players to watch.

7)Chicago Sky (+3000)

Oh how the mighty have fallen. James Wade is a terrific coach which should help as a major reset takes place here. Chicago will need to be monitored early as fade opportunity. but never count James Wade and this franchise completely out.

8)Conneticut Sun (+3000)

The Sun welcome new coach Stephanie White.  She still has Brionna Jones and Natisha Hiedeman from last year’s core.  This is a team in obvious transition.  I am going to focus on whether their tremendous home court edge begins to erode.

9)Seattle Storm (+3000)

See #8 Conneticut Sun . Stewie and Bird out the door. Questions should be answered in first few games.

10)Atlanta Dream (+3500)

The Dream franchise was a mess but improved statistically over the last 10 games of 2023. Adding Alisha Gray helps Rhyne Howard and the offense.  TBD here.

11)Minnesota Lynx (+3500)

Not much to see here, possible season-long fade. Signed Tiffany Mitchell from the Fever.

12)Indiana Fever (+8000)

See #11 Minnesota Lynx.​ The good news is they look to get 6-foot-5 Aliyah Boston has the first pick in the April 10th draft.

February 8th, 2023 CBB Free Play

By
Michael Fordham
-

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*CBB(1u): Virginia Tech -13 vs Boston College–6 PM CT

Virginia Tech endured a grueling 7 game losing streak earlier in conference play, but as they’ve gotten healthier, we’ve seen who the Hokies truly are. Over the last 2 weeks, Va Tech has taken down Duke, Syracuse(by 15), and 6th ranked Virginia just this past Saturday. This sets up as a revenge spot after a shorthanded Hokies squad lost in Chesnut Hill back in December, and quite frankly, I think they can name their number here.

If you can knock down your outside shots, you will have success against Boston College. The Eagles rank just 332nd in 3pt defense this year, while Virginia Tech has shot over 40% from deep over their last 3 games. Boston College is also one of the worst 3-pt shooting teams in America(just 29.6%) and is clearly below average in the 2pt as well. This Hokies defense does not force a lot of turnovers, but they are above average on the ball and shouldn’t have much issue getting stops.

Some would say this is not a great spot for VT given they’re coming off the emotional high of being Virginia. Given the prior losing streak and revenge angle, I think the Hokies understand they need style points, which negates my concern of this being a letdown spot.

NHL Preview & Picks – February 8th, 2023

By
Patrick Gates
-

We only have two games taking place across the NHL tonight. I’ll break down a few of the matchups and offer my best bets along with a few player props to take a look at.

 

Game Previews:

Vancouver Canucks @ New York Rangers

  • Time: 8:00 PM ET
  • Vancouver Canucks: 20-26-4, 6th Pacific (10-13-3 Away)
  • New York Rangers: 28-14-8, 3rd Metropolitan (14-9-4 Home)
Team Opening ML Current ML Spread Total
Vancouver Canucks +200 +205 +1.5 (-115) o6.5 (-110)
New York Rangers -240 -245 -1.5 (-105) u6.5 (-110)

 

In their first game following the All-Star break, the Canucks put up a fight but fell to the Devils 5-4 in OT. Vancouver’s been through a ton of changes lately starting with a new head coach and then losing their captain to Long Island. The Canucks have struggled defensively this year ranking 31st in goals against. As of late Vancouver’s had trouble away from home going 1-8 in their last 9 road games.

The Rangers had a hard-fought battle against the Flames in their last matchup where they would prevail winning 5-4 in OT. Igor Shesterkin has started to find his form which has helped New York win six of their last ten.

VAN: S. Martin (11-13-1), 3.94 GAA, .875 SV%

NYR: I. Shesterkin (21-8-7), 2.45 GAA, .918 SV%

 

Minnesota Wild @ Dallas Stars

  • Time: 8:30 PM ET
  • Minnesota Wild: 27-18-4, 3rd Central (12-10-3 Away)
  • Dallas Stars: 29-13-10, 1st Central (14-5-6 Home)
Team Opening ML Current ML Spread Total
Minnesota Wild +115 +135 +1.5 (-190) o5.5 (-125)
Dallas Stars -135 -155 -1.5 (+160) u5.5 (+105)

 

This will be the third matchup between these teams this season. They’ve split the first two games with the road team coming away victorious each time.

Minnesota’s in a playoff battle with Colorado so every point is critical for them in the second half of the season. They struggled in their first game following the All-Star break losing to the Coyotes 3-2 on the road. The Wild have had issues offensively as of late averaging just 2.60 goals for. Luckily for them, they’ve been solid defensively which has allowed them to win some games. If they’re looking to make a postseason push they’ll need some more offensive production.

Dallas narrowly won their first game after the break defeating the Anaheim Ducks 3-2 in a shootout. Before that, they had lost three straight averaging just two goals per game during that span. They’re one of the best defensive teams in the NHL anchored by Jake Oettinger. Through the first half of the season, Oettinger has a +16.2 GSAx which ranks 7th.

MIN: F. Gustavsson (11-7-1), 2.26 GAA, .922 SV% [CONFIRMED]

DAL: J. Oettinger (22-7-7), 2.25 GAA, .924 SV%

 

Pick(s):

  • Dallas Stars 60 Minute Moneyline (No Push) (+112) – FanDuel
    • Risk 0.25 to win 0.28 Units

In their last game, the Stars had some issues against an inferior opponent but that happens after a few days off. Overall, the Stars have been very consistent this season under Peter Deboer. At home, they’ve been great with a 14-5-6 record averaging half a goal more than on the road. Minnesota has struggled offensively and given their matchup against Dallas who’s great defensively, they should have issues. On the road, the Wild have been subpar with a 12-10-3 record and have lost their last four games.

 

Player Props to Target:

  • Chris Kreider over 2.5 Shots on Goal (-155) – DraftKings
    • Chris Kreider has gone over this number in three of his last five games at home. During that span, he’s averaging 3.0 shots on goal and 4.6 shot attempts per game. At home, he’s recorded over 2.5 SOG in four of his last five. The Canucks rank 20th in shots on goal allowed per game averaging 31.78. On the road, that number increases to 33.54. Vancouver has also given up the 7th most shots on goal per game to Left Wingers in their last five games. He’s on New York’s top Power Play which should see plenty of action tonight. Vancouver has taken three or more penalties in each of their last four games. In their previous matchup against the Islanders this year, Kreider recorded 8 shots on goal on 12 shot attempts.
  • Mason Marchment over 1.5 Shots on Goal (-175) – DraftKings
    • Mason Marchment has gone over this number in four of his last five games at home. During that span, he’s averaging 2.2 shots on goal and 4.2 shot attempts per game. At home, he’s recorded over 1.5 SOG in four of his last five. The Wild rank 10th in shots on goal allowed per game averaging 30.18. On the road, that number increases to 31.08. He’s on Dallas’ second Power Play which should see some action tonight. Dallas has taken three or more penalties in three of their last four games. Marchment has recorded over 1.5 shots on goal in each of their two previous matchups against the Wild this year.

 

Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting.

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